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Betting

All-Weather Saturday Selections: 11th March 2023

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12.55 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Lady Nagin drops down to class 6 again after a seriously impressive effort at Southwell over 6 furlongs three weeks ago. She also tries the minimum trip for only the second time in her career on what will be her 2cond handicap run also.

When last seen she pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend and as a consequence wasted a lot of energy, as she never really settled properly, too.

Yet she showed a really impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

It’s hard to know where her ceiling is. She won two back a maiden over 6 furlongs at Southwell in really nice style from the front. Having showed plenty of early speed in her races, I doubt the minimum trip will pose any real issue.

from a low draw she should be able to move forward and track the likely front-runners closely in third or fourth place. They should go a good clip which may help her to settle better, and if they go too hard, she clearly has the stamina for further as well.

10pts win – Lady Nagin @ 7/1

……….

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Sir Rodneyredblood is a course and distance specialist with a 7-3-2 record who caught the eye last time out on his first run after a small break.

He showed excellent early speed, even though was also helped by a low draw, led the field for home by setting a strong pace in the 6 furlongs contest. He tried hard but eventually faded from 1f out.

Five or six furlongs doesn’t make too much of a difference to him, but the minimum trip at this track is clearly his preferred course and distance.

He drops ever so slightly in grade as he does in trip, and this will be easier. He has to overcome the #6 draw, though should be able to do so given the pace map for the race.

With that in mind, he could potentially dominate this contest from the front, which will be an advantage over this C & D. I have no doubt he will come on for the lto run and can bring his form back to the level shown in autumn.

The level of form he ran to then is at a different level to the majority of rivals in this field. He ran to solid speed ratings then, and was only a neck beaten off a 65 mark in a better race.

He obviously had a lot of racing under his belt but still shows enough enthusiasm and early speed to think off 62 against 0-60 opposition over his preferred course and distance he must be a huge runner.

Obviously, Proclivity and Mustaffiz have been eyecatchers in the past, too. There are both with a chance here, though, I have come to the conclusion that their limitations have been exposed off their current ratings.

10pts win – Sir Rodneyredblood @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th March 2023

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1.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A really poor 0-52 Handicap of the lowest grade. This could be an excellent opportunity for veteran Dapper Man to enjoy a perfect race from the #1 draw.

He seemed to hit some good form lately, especially when last seen over the straight five at Southwell.

There he tracked the pace and the eventual winner early on, got outpaced halfway through, before he had to switch due to traffic problems. He got going again and ran on really well against the unfavourable stands’ side rail.

In my view he was far from disgraced in his last four runs since return to the All-Weather. That is backed up by speed ratings as he ran to 50 last time out and 52 four runs back, suggesting he is at a level that should give him a good chance in this field.

I feel he may enjoy the return to race around a bend over the minimum trip, especially this course and distance where has a 2-1-1 record.

From the #1 draw he should get to the lead without an issue, and has then the option to either go for it or taking the lead of the potential pace pressure that will have to do a lot from outside draws to get there, though.

10pts win – Dapper Man @ 9/2

………

6.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

It’s interesting that Gobi Sunset drops back in trip to 6 furlongs. Even though possibly more thought of as a 7 furlongs specialist, two of his three career wins came over this trip for a 7-2-2 record.

Gobi Sunset’s career-best speed rating also was achieved over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather. So the drop in trip is as intriguing as it makes sense.

He will find this class easier as well. There is a chance that 0-95 and 0-85 level is a little bit too hot form him. Nonetheless, he ran with a lot of credit in the three runs since returning from a 260 day break.

He only tired late after attempting to make all on his reappearance at Wolverhampton, and I was really impressed how easily he finished last time out, posting the fastest final furlong split.

The inexperienced 7lb claimer is a question mark. On the other hand, Archie Young looked pretty solid in the sole ride he had recently.

The low draw suits to move forward if reverted back to attacking tactics. He was perhaps a little slow away, but not helped by a rival either, and perhaps it was also somewhat by design, when restrained in rear last time out.

There is plenty of pace here. I feel this can suit. If this is a test of stamina his extra bit of 7 furlongs stamina will be an asset late in the race.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/1

………

8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I loved Eastern Star’s gutsy performance at this venue last week. The idiosyncrasies of the British handicapping system have her race off 2lb lower here over a better trip, despite finishing a fine runner-up.

Last week she grabbed the lead and set seriously hot pace early on. As a consequence she had the field on the stretch, still going well turning for home. From 2 furlongs out she came severely under pressure but it was impressive how she pulled out more and fought back gamely.

A mile clearly stretches her. She also hasn’t won on the All-Weather or 7 furlongs yet in her long career, but I think she stays 7 furlongs, and has two placed efforts from two tries over this course and distance, including her career-best speed rating of 56, which came exactly 12 days ago to this day in exactly the same type of race over this C&D.

Her most recent effort clearly shows she is in serious form as well. Having the opportunity to race off 46 this one time, 2lb lower than lto, and where her mark is going back to again after this, in a very winnable contest, she looks to have a prime chance for a first victory on the sand.

10pts win – Eastern Star @ 9/2

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 9th March 2023

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1.15 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

It was an odd race and even odder ride Primo’s Comet received at Newcastle last month when last seen. It also was quite impressive how the veteran gelding finished his race there.

He was restrained early on, seemingly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. He switched eventually to get a run against the inside rail but didn’t find space until late, while the jockey in the saddle wasn’t all that bothered, it seemed.

In any case, the way the 8-year-old finished suggests he must be hitting some serious form. That comprises with his rapidly falling handicap mark.

Nonetheless, he still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November, therefore looks handicapped to go close on that evidence alone, now rated 63.

He’s got a favourable low draw here and should enjoy the chaotic and frantic pace to be expected in this race to be delivered in the closing stages for a turn of foot.

10pts win – Primo’s Comet @ 11/2

………

7.45 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

The wider than ideal #9 draw is a concern, but that aside there’s an awful lot to like about Fanzone here in a winnable contest.

This is going to be his second run after a break. That most recent comeback run nine days ago was seriously eye catching, suggesting the 6-year-old gelding is in fine form and very much ready to win.

Nine days ago he wasn’t quite the sharpest out of a wider than ideal draw and looked a bit keen, as he settled in midfield. He travelled really well for a long time but had to wait to be angled out to the stands’ side rail for a clear run.

Once in the clear he found plenty for pressure. In fact he finished fastest for the last two furlongs.

It was an excellent comeback run after 188 days off. He also caught the eye a number of times last year on the flat.

Yet, racing off a career lowest mark he makes a lot of appeal as he drops in grade as well, into 0-55 level, with in-form Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

10pts win – Fanzone @ 7/1

Betting

All-Weather Wednesday Selections: 8th March 2023

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4.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Hill Station looks potentially quite well-handicapped back over 12 furlongs on the Lingfield polytrack. He’s the only one with any notable recent course & distance form in this field. Judged on his last All-Weather runs he may have found finally an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.

I willingly ignore the most recent outing over hurdles, even though he was fancied at this track four weeks ago. It was a strange race. He’s certainly better judged on the last sand performances, in my view.

With that in mind, when last seen here at Lingfield’s polytrack over 10 furlongs in early February he ran with plenty of credit as a 22/1 longshot. He tracked a solid pace a couple of lengths clear of the chasing pack, and made nice progress turning for home, before getting tired and fading back to 6th.

That run was in line with the promise he showed toward the end of 2022 at Chelmsford and over 12 furlongs at Lingfield, even more so, back in November.

At Chelmsford over 10 furlongs Hill Station got caught in the closing stages after running hard from the front. But especially the run prior over course and distance at Lingfield appeared to be a significant performance.

That day he was early up with the pace, however, got caught wide for the majority of the race. He still rallied strongly in the closing stages, to finish a brilliant 3rd and ran to a strong 63 speed rating.

That’s clearly the best more recent performance on offer in this poor field today. He’s been dropped another 2lb in the meantime, therefore and any repeat of that run will see him win this, most likely.

There won’t be too much pace pressure here. So he may enjoy it easy on the front as well and no danger of getting caught wise this time.

His sire has a poor record on the All-Weather, which is a concern. On the other hand, this is possibly a fact to negate, given Hill Station has proven he performs on the All-Weather.

10pts win – Hill Station @ 7/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 7th March 2023

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Quite disappointing performances from both selections at Wolverhampton last night. Both relinquished rather willingly their low draw, and neither got properly involved in the finish of their respective races.

Surprised me. I must admit, because I was quietly keen on both horses being seriously overpriced; I wasn’t expecting but certainly hoping for huge runs. Shows even if you ‘feel’ you sit on really strong bets, it doesn’t mean anything in this game.

……..

8.00 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Second run after a break, Roman Dynasty looks seriously dangerous off a career-lowest handicap mark today over a course and distance that should suit, with Spencer on board.

He caught the eye twice in October at Chelmsford, especially that October 22nd run was noteworthy, because with some imagination one could see how he possibly goes seriously close with a clear run that day.

His comeback run a fortnight ago was clearly one of the rather eyecatching sort as well. He had a wide draw to overcome, travelled well off the pace, going well into the home straight, and made excellent progress under hands and heels to finish the fastest in the final furlong.

A better draw today, another two pounds off the mark that brings him down to 69, a career-lowest Official Rating – he should be ripe and ready to rock.

On past performances he appears to be pretty well handicapped: he ran to topspeed 72 on turf last summer and he looked more than capable to be better than his current 69 rating, judged on his All-Weather efforts.

The early money has dried up and he’s on the drift in the betting this morning, especially on the exchanges where it feels a bit suspect that I managed to get 15/2 and bits matched for my entire stake without too much hassle, given earlier industry prices showed around 9/2; something I don’t like to see when Spencer rides.

But I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t run his race today, with wellbeing and form confirmed in no uncertain terms in a winnable contest.

10pts win – Roman Dynasty @ 15/2

Betting

All-Weather Monday Selections: 6th March 2023

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5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Mustaffiz ran a huge race last week at Chelmsford when 3rd in a seriously hot race where the first and second ran to career-best or near career-best speed ratings.

He was tracking the pace from an advanced midfield position and travelled really well as he approached the home straight. Switching for the centre of the track may have cost him momentum, when perhaps going for the clear passage toward the inside would have been the better option.

Suddenly he found himself with a clear a passage and bumped into the eventual winner in a fight for space. He held on for third but had no chance with the first two home.

The gelding has nicely progressed from run to run lately, since his mark has dropped to a more realistic level and when he caught the eye as a potential improver early last month, as he ran quite well, slightly better than the 5/10 finish would make you believe the next time, followed by the aforementioned lto performance.

This is an easier race as he drops into 0-60 but stays on the same 60 mark. He’s been given an obvious chance to win and has the added bonus of a nice low draw and should enjoy the fast pace to track.

10pts win – Mustaffiz @ 13/2

……..

6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The handicap newcomers could be intriguing contenders, you just don’t know what you going to get with them. The more proven form in the race is certainly beatable.

That says unexposed over the 6 furlong trip is also Turbo Tiger, who showed promising signs when last seen over the minimum trip at Newcastle last month.

That day he moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy in the early part of the race. He was swamped over 1f out, seemingly flat footed, before coming back for more in the final half furlong.

That was impressive. Only a horse in good form can do that. It also appeared he clearly has the stamina for 6 furlongs, given how he seemingly enjoyed the stiff finish at Newcastle.

He was freshly gelded only a few weeks prior and it was good to see that he improved a bit from his previous seven career runs. Although, he wasn’t disgraced in the majority of those, ran with credit and didn’t always got the luckiest of runs.

There is a danger that he is too keen over 6 furlongs, but I feel everything we saw so far points to him wanting the additional furlong and confidence grows as he’s a full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, with a 2/2 record on the All-Weather over 6f.

This here represents a drops in class, taking on slightly lesser opposition and may be more significant than the paltry pound he lost in his official rating.

Having the #1 is a huge bonus in a race with not too much pace. He can just move forward easily to grab the lead and hopefully never to be seen again.

10pts win – Turbo Tiger @ 11/1

Betting

Forget about Luck

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The last two days of my betting have been severely influenced by luck. Yet, as a punter the word ‘luck’ must be eradicated from the vocabulary.

Letmelivemylife wins it in a photo. Thomas Equinas gets a dream run through on the inside. Galileo Glass doesn’t get the gap. May Remain is beaten on the line.

The margins are small in racing. A millimeter or a split second can make a huge difference. The conclusion can only be that luck plays a vital role in the outcome of races.

What does that mean from a betting perspective? Well, some days luck won’t be on your side, no matter how much juice you’ve got in your bet. Another time the misfortune of others will be your luck.

Punters often remember – or see – only when luck turns against them. They don’t recognise when it is in their favour. The negative emotions felt from misfortune are profoundly intense. That’s natural, there is a psychological reason for it. Put simply: losing always feels far worse than winning ever could feel great.

That can be s problem if a losing day stretches into multiple days or even weeks. Negative emotions take over and it can become increasingly difficult to stay emotionally indifferent to the outcome of bets.

However: betting for profit doesn’t depend on luck. Not in the long-run. Therefore, it doesn’t truly matter whether a selection gets beaten in the closest of photo finishes today, or if the much needed gap is going to be denied tomorrow.

Good, quality bets that represent consistent value (i.e. beat SP/BSP) will turn a profit in the long-term. This universal truth will, no matter what, absolutely not depend on any luck whatsoever.

Also universally true is the fact that losing runs are inevitable and that variance has a lot to say about this.

With that in mind there are only two key ingredients to betting profit:
1. Value Bets
2. Emotional indifference to the outcome

A way to put these two points into one single common phrase that translates well to betting: bet the process, not the outcome.

One the point of emotional indifference we can certainly learn from the ancient Stoics – a philosophy that is all about decoupling the mind from negative emotions and seeing things for what they are, in a rational way, no matter what happens to us right now.

“The first rule is to keep an untroubled spirit. The second is to look things in the face and know them for what they are.” – Marcus Aurelius

If we got value in our bets then the misfortune today isn’t truly misfortune, when the action we perceive as misfortune is only one of the possible outcomes, in any case.

Last night reminded me in no uncertain terms about this: I backed 2 winners from 2 selections. Both were probably lucky to win in their own right. One got the most perfect run against the inside rail, the other benefited from a rival perhaps not getting out early enough, which may well have made all the difference in a tight photo.

That was in total contrast to the days prior, even recent weeks and months, and made me remember the importance of the aforementioned key ingredients.

Betting-wise the last half year was largely challenging. Especially the last three weeks, as I couldn’t back a winner, no matter how much value I got and how well selections were backed on the day.

I didn’t become a poor punter overnight. In fact, over the last three months roughly 60% of my bets beat SP… for minus 75pts return. Autsch. If one of the “unlucky” ones would have won, the red would have turned green. Other times my “lucky” winners could have lost on another day and may have changed the outcome of a green month.

Having extensive records of all my bets helps to see things in the right context. Largely, I am happy with my body of work over the last while. If I beat SP more often than not, I know I will win in the long-run.

I know this for a fact after nearly a decade of betting on horses and recording every single bet. In a time when my process has marginally changed and relies on a specific skillset that is different to the general punter hence generates an edge.

It’s a statistical certainty – and far from unusual if I consult my records – that there are times of despair, though; the average odds were 8/1+ over the aforementioned last quarter – losing runs are inevitable. Yes, 19 consecutive losing selections are tough to take on the chin. But it happens.

Long story short: luck may determine the outcome of today. It won’t determine whether you are going to be a profitable punter in the long-run. If you’re still in red after 1000 bets that’s not down to a lack of luck. It’s because of a lack of skill.

With that in mind: take the days when things go against your selection easier, and recognise the days luck is on your side. If you know you have an edge you will win in the long-term. That’s the only thing to care about.

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 2nd March 2023

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Painful. Two 2nd placed efforts, including one beaten on the line and one blatant non-trier. Frustrating day. Again. May Remain looked to have it with half a furlong to go but then tired rapidly to get pinged shortly before the line. Agonising to watch.

Big Bard was probably too far back, finished solid for second place, but ultimately was fair and square beaten, in truth.

Muy Muy Guapo drifted out to 14/1 SP today, the writing was on the wall. And so it happened, as ‘surprisingly’ the colt started slowly and didn’t get a ride that would have given him any chance to get close.

That’s okay. it’s the game I have chosen to play voluntarily. It’s just the little bit harder to take during such rotten spell as it is for the last three weeks.

…….

5.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Give A Little Back? Probably not here. Up in class, around Chelmsford, this may be too sharp, the opposition too classy. I still hope to get my day with him another time.

The other one who is of serious interest is Letmelivemylife. He caught the eye in no uncertain terms last time. That was his debut for a new yard after a break since August.

He was held up after an alter enough start, travelled really strongly but gave ground away when turning widest. He wasn’t really asked for full effort until late and finished nicely, nonetheless.

You would hope he can improve for the outing. However, he wasn’t seen since then, now it’s four weeks later, that begs the question why? On the other hand, he seems a tricky sort given his lightly raced profile over the last two years.

He certainly has got a bit of talent as he won twice on the All-Weather as a juvenile and as a 3yo, both wins over 7 furlongs, including here at Chelmsford, when he also ran to a 76 speed rating.

We didn’t see much of him since, and after a bunch of poor showings, he has fallen down to a 74 handicap rating, from an 84 career-highest, only five runs back.

Clearly he showed a significant return to some form the last time, and that gives plenty of hope in this class 5 contest over a C&D he’s 3-1-1 from a good low draw.

10pts win – Letmelivemylife @ 13/2

…..

6.25 Chelmsford: Classified Stakes, 7f

I am not totally sure whether Thomas Equinas truly stays 7 furlongs. But around Chelmsford in a race that may not be run at the furious gallop he should have a decent chance.

If he does get home he could have a class edge here given he ran extremely well of higher marks at this track over 6 furlongs than what will be required here on level weights where few rivals look legitimately better than the 50 limit.

There were good things in nearly all his last four runs, visually or on the numbers. At this venue in early December over 6 furlongs he was only 2½L beaten off a 57 mark, running to a 54 speed rating. He wasn’t disgraced the next few times, especially his January run here once again was eyecatching.

Last time out from a wide draw after a sluggish start he ran okay when taking into account that he went wide, given a lot of ground away, throughout the race.

Slight worry that he was twice in a row not the sharpest out of the gate. A better draw here and a less frantic early pace may help the cause.

10pts win – Thomas Equinas @ 7/2

Betting

All-Weather Wednesday: 1st March 2023

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It’s not often that this small and completely irrelevant blog gets much attention. And why would it? However, the piece about my self-experiment with the ProCush whip seems to have hit a nerve within the racing bubble.

This site received in the last two days as much traffic as it normally would get in two-three full months! The original tweet was seen over 225k times, and messages came flying from all over the globe.

It was an even bigger surprise when doing the cooking on Monday night when I usually listen to the Betfair podcast to heat Kevin Blake highlighting the piece (58:36).

It’s been a crazy 24h, that’s for sure. I am only a racing fan who writes about the sport. Nothing special. It shows there is appetite for real info on the whip, though. Something to address by the governing bodies. For all they lack the will, obviously.

On the betting front Galileo Glass finished a super 2nd today, but didn’t get the gap when needed. He surely would have won otherwise. Big Impact ran too free, unfortunately.

Ends February on minus 10pts. After a super start to the month, I now haven’t backed a winner in nearly three weeks, 16 selections and counting, and also 45pts down on the year. It will be all updated here by tomorrow, as always.

…….

2.30 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Muy Muy Guapo was a huge eyecatcher when last seen at Kempton. He was a bit awkward away from the gate, settled in last, then travelled strongly into the home straight.

He was easily able to answer every acceleration from the front group, but didn’t get a clear passage, while not really asked for full effort at all.

That was his Handicap debut and first run for the Simon Dow yard off a 100 day break. He is very much expected to improve for the run.

There is clearly a lot of talent, certainly compared to the opposition here. He’s still a colt and cost £115k as a yearling. Horses in this grade don’t often travel that well and can answer every pace acceleration that easily as Muy Muy Guapo did last time out.

He was even rewarded with a pound off his mark for that pretty spectacular effort. He looks tremendously well-handicapped.

10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 5/1

…….

3.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Big Bard ran better than the bare suggests the last two times. He came on my radar thanks a brave front-running performance on the last day of the old year. That form looks quite strong on paper.

He ran with credit next time out over 7 furlongs too, after things got rough in the early parts of the race, which meant he was set alight and pulling hard. He still travelled really well for a very long time.

The drop in trip to 6 furlongs is sure to suit here. He also has been dropped another 2lb, now rated 58. He looks handicapped to go close.

He ran to speed ratings 59 and 60 since September, although on turf, but his career best speed rating on All-Weather is 59, which he achieved twice, albeit at Chelmsford.

The race could be set up for him from the #2 draw with not much pace to compete with, if Hector Crouch wants to move forward.

10pts win – Big Bard @ 9/1

……..

8.30 Kempton: Classified Stakes, 6f

Good things come in threes, once again? I certainly hope so. I have given up on Paddy K after his recent gallant, but ultimately unfortunate runner-up performance at Southwell. He remains a maiden.

Instead, I go back to my trusted source of despair, that is May Remain. The 8-year-old ran a massive race last time out, when he moved rapidly forward from the widest draw and set the world alight from the front.

No surprise to see him finish a very tired horse. Still, he managed to finish 3rd, and that form doesn’t look bad in the context of this field.

He has the benefit of a #2 draw here, which is absolutely ideal. This course and distance favours front-runners and low draws. He won’t have his own way up front and there is danger that he does too much early on.

But the latest form, as well as a number of previous runs this winter, gave the impression that he is simply excellent form, and possibly better than the vast majority in this field.

10pts win – May Remain @ 5/1

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday: 28th February 2023

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It was eventful day on multiple fronts. Only on the betting front it didn’t click. Still searching in vain for the winner that gets me out of this rotten spell.

Sharron Macready went off favourite in the end. Great, I got a super price, once again…. it counted for nothing. No excuses, though. She had every chance and wasn’t good enough.

…….

7.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Is this ‘the’ day for Galileo Glass? The early market suggests it could be the case. More so, it’s been his last two performances that suggested he is close to peak form, however.

Mid-January over this course and distance he was a significant eyecatcher as he was restrained at the back of the field after a good start. He turned for home in last position, seemed poised for a solid challenge, but didn’t get a clear run before he finished easily.

Fitted with a visor for the first time when last seen, over the same course and distance, he was sharp out of the gate, possibly did a bit too much early on, though, yet travelled strongly into the home straight. He didn’t quite get a clear run over 2f out; in any case he didn’t have a chance with the winner and tired.

Both runs appear to be strong form, and made plenty of appeal visually. He drops into 0-60 class here, dropped a pound in the ratings, where he’s meeting a really poor bunch of rivals in this field.

The #11 draw is a not ideal, there is a clear danger that he is going to be caught wide. It’s worth taking the risk simply because I think he has quite a bit in hand in this field. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a bonus.

10pts win – Galileo Glass @ 5/1

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am following Big Impact for a while. He’s been quite consistent this winter, having performed with credit and ran to some solid speed ratings.

He looked somewhat in the grip of the handicapper, but he caught the eye a number of times when he ran better than the bare form suggest also.

Now down to a mark of 55, 4lb lower than his last winning mark, as he drops down into 0-55 class, he must have a tremendous chance.

He’ll enjoy the ideal #3 draw here and should enjoy the fast pace of the race. He tends to pull hard; so happened last time out over this course and distance. Then from a wider #7 gate he just didn’t settle and wasted a lot of energy.

It was still noteworthy that he kept coming back for more in the closing stages. He should get a lead here from Ustath, and hopefully drops his head. That’s the risk, always.

But this is a not an overly competitive race. He’s clearly in excellent form as evidence of three speed ratings of 56+. He’s potentially on a lenient mark and can move forward from the perfect draw.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 13/2