THE good: two winners @ 4/1 and 2/1 today. The bad: Air Force Blue is finished. The champion two year old of 2015 finished an eleven lengths beaten last in the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes….
There is obviously more amiss with him than team Ballydoyle may have wanted us to believe. It’s not a matter of not having trained on. Even if that might well be a factor, it can’t be the reason for one of the most dominant juveniles in recent history suddenly looking like a 30 rated claimer around Southwell on a dreary January afternoon.
I don’t understand it. That is for sure. I felt the drop in trip in the July Cup yielded in some promise, actually, given he travelled really well for a long time. But today? No explanation.
Another question remains unanswered, for the moment at least: retire him or give him a break and try to figure out what’s wrong in the hope he’ll save some of his badly damaged reputation later the year? Well, in my humble opinion the right decision is to send him off to stud. A tumble in the hay with some lovely mares – he may well thrive in the new job….
No surprise in the Phoenix Stakes. Aiden ‘Brien’s Coventry Stakes winner Caravaggio landed the odds without the slightest of problems. The son of Scat Daddy, now unbeaten in four starts, looks a proper racehorse (mind you, Air Force Blue did at this point in time 12 month ago too)!
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Monday Selections:
Riding the Adrian Keatley bandwagon at Ayr tomorrow – his runners, as so often, don’t make much appeal on paper, but his record at the Scottish track speaks for itself. Also his record with horses fitted with headgear, like a visor or tongue tie, or with apprentice Robin Dolan on board.
Also hoping Dragon Pulse can continue his early promise as a freshmen sire. There are some positives to find in a, admittedly, small sample size of his runners on the All-Weather. The majority of those, showing tremendous early speed.
2.45 Wolverhampton: Newport Place @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
2.30 Ayr: Buzz Boy @ 7/1 WH
4.00 Ayr: Jingle Jangle @ 8/1 Bet365
4.45 Wolverhampton: Coronation Day @ 11/2 WH
5.35 Ayr: Dea Dia @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
630 Ffos Las: Desdichado @ 10/1 Skybet
8.20 Windsor: Cosmic Sun @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
Morning Update: Cosmic Sun is N/R
Miday Update: Added Ffos Las selection
Not often you see a horse cruising hard on the bridle entering the final furlong in a Grade 1 on the dirt, particularly if they flew around the track right from the start – yet Frosted did!
He posted one of the most impressive performances of the season, following on from an equally ultra impressive victory in Metropolitan Handicap back in June.
If you didn’t see the race, staged last night at beautiful Saratoga, here’s a chance to catch up:
Hayley Turner you beauty! The multiple Group 1 winning formerly leading female rider in the UK looked healthy and happy at yesterday’s Shergar Cup – which in itself was great to see; no doubt her ride in the Shergar Cup Mile was THE highlight of the day.
Super cool, with (virtual) balls of steel, did she rode Early Morning to victory – and given she hasn’t ridden much since her retirement, she looked still quite strong in the saddle. Well done!
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4.05 Phoenix Stakes: Air Force Blue @ 11/8 Skybet
Yes, you got to be a brave man to put any amount of faith in fallen Ballydoyle star Air Force Blue. BUT he wins this – hands down!
Why? Well, it’s obvious that everything he showed as a three year old is so far below anything he showed as a juvenile – therefore it might be fair to assume he simply didn’t train on. On the other hand to my eyes it seemed more like he had some issues bugging him him early on the year plus it becomes clear he doesn’t last the mile trip.
On the positive side of things: when dropped to 6 furlongs in the July Cup you could see a glimpse of last seasons class. “What???” Some will say now. Air Force Blue beaten by feckin’ seven lengths that day!
That’s right, though look closely, as he travelled like a dream for a very long time albeit didn’t get the breaks he needed when it really mattered….. I know I’m making excuses plenty will think… but….
…..Air Force Blue drops down to Group 3 level today right in to a field he simply HAS to dominate, particularly with good ground sure to suit. He’s by far the highest rated individual in this race. Combined with his weight for age allowance he is virtually unbeatable.
So, no excuses today. None! If he fades badly today then we get an answer the question whether there is an underlying problem… potentially breathing (*think loud*). Until then I give him the benefit of the doubt and say 11/8 is monster value!
Speed-ball Kareena is hot favourite for this intriguing Grade 1 for three year old fillies, but you wonder whether she stays the 7f trip in what shapes like a race sure to be run at a red hot pace.
Mother Goose winner Off The Tracks appears to be a more dependable candidate over the distance. She clearly stays all the way and doesn’t lack speed – yet the drop to this shorter distance is something that puts me off.
Lewis Bay ran out a fine runner-up behind Off The Tracks at Belmont after bottling it at the start. Given he won over further, I also slightly wonder about the drop in trip.
At the prices Lightstream makes most appeal. A three times winner over 7f on dirt and turf, she lost her unbeaten record in the Mother Goose but was far from disgraced. She encountered a bad trip on the far outside around the home turn and just didn’t have enough left to challenge in the end.
The drop back to 7f will certainly suit, and this filly is tremendously talented in my mind. She often leaves it late, which could make things very nervy here, given Off The Tracks and Lewis Bay will go hard to the line. Still, at 15/2, she is the value in this contest.
“How can people moan about it? It’s a fun day, it attracts a non-racing audience, it’s good prize money, they’re good-quality horses… But people are always going to grumbl… Racing’s like that.” Says Hayley Turner in a recent interview with The Gurdian.
You can think of the Shergar Cup what you want – personalty have no stark opinion on – I don’t mind it, but wouldn’t be an enthusiastic fan either. Though I like the fact that the event usually brings together a variety of jockeys from all over the world competing against each other. So I’m quite excited to see top class South African rider Gavin Lerena in action at Ascot today, actually.
Now, it’s a huge day for racing, not only because of the Shergar Cup. Plenty is going on, and that needs time to properly assess. I’ll update this post throughout the day with thoughts on later races, just so I keep up with the time schedule of Ascot starting quite early.
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2.05 Newmarket: Wuheida @ 2/1 Ladbrokes
Extremely well bred debutant from a yard with brilliant strike with their two year olds this year, especially at Newmarket. This son of Dubawi is very much thought to be good enough to win one or two races. This race looks good, but he should be simply too talented.
3.15 Newmarket: Easy Victory @ 5/2 Bet365
The name is programme? Very possible. Easy Victory scored readily on debut for Saeed Bin Suroor over course and distance in similar conditions and she looks open to a significant amount of improvement for that experience as well as the step up in trip today.
1.15 Ascot: Out Do @ 6/1 Ladbrokes
Fine on this ground and clearly in good nick; ran with plenty of credit in King’s Stand Stakes and is one pound higher than his last Handicap win. Interestingly horses that finished 2nd in their most recent start have a very positive record in this particular race.
1.45 Ascot: Notarised @ 11/2 Coral
Tough assignment to over come given his weight however he loves fast ground and gets the trip. He’s also in good nick and has regular rider Joe Fanning on board who rides Ascot over two miles extremely well.
Ascot: 2.55: George Cinq @ 7/2 Ladbrokes
In outstanding form the last weeks and months and with Martin Harley a good Ascot jockey on board. George Cinq is a course and distance winner as well, who enjoys fast ground and who looks more likely to feature strongly in the finish here than most others.
Ascot 3.30: Lord Yeats @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
Clear negative to have Ikezoke on board but nonetheless this son of Yeats done pretty well with this season, where broke his maiden tag and followed up with an agonisingly close runner-up effort lto. 12f at Ascot should suit perfectly, as lon as he acts on quick ground.
Haydock 3.10: Muffri’ha @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Totally speculative and solely based on excellent jockey and trainer stats. The filly hasn’t shown anything in any of her recent starts to suggest she has form to go close, albeit, when she was in form, once upon the time, she looked talented.
William Haggas though knows what it takes to win Stakes races at Haydock, given a 32% strike rate here at this course in these type of contests. Even better, with jockey Ben Curtis on his horses in stakes races Haggas enjoys a 35.7% strike rate. So to bring the horse here with this jockey in the saddle looks significant.
8.10 Ayr: Forcefull @ 3/1 Betfred
Irish trainer Adrian Keatley is back at his happy hunting ground in Ayr, where he won 11 races with his last 27 starters. He brings winless filly Forecull over, however she ran with credit the last two times and off her new mark this looks a perfect opportunity to open her account.
A third and a fourth last night, nothing to exciting…. but both horses ran with plenty of promise. Dream Team was a bit of a gamble and went off single figures odds. He confirmed he’s one who can win a race, probably one to keep an eye on once he steps into handicap company.
On home soil, the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes took place at Leopardstown. I got to admit I was surprised to see Bondi Beach readily available at 15/8 during the day, though I should have been smarter, knowing how Ballydoyle operates. This was clearly a prep run, a slightly more intense workout, given the ride Bondi Beach received.
Clearly promising though, and he’s obviously better over further – another crack at the Melbourne Cup is on the menu next next? Winner Stellar Mass goes from strengths to strengths. Always talented, but finding it difficult to get his head in front – he was 3rd in the Irish Derby – he followed on from a recent success in Listed company and could be St. Leger bound.
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2.50 Wolverhampton: Tulip Dress @ 6/1 VC
Big chance for the only three year old in this race to add to his sole course and distance success. Trainer Anthony Carson does well in these type of race at the Wolverhampton Tapeta particularly this season and he has found another excellent opportunity to score.
3.10 Brighton: Onehelluvatouch @ 9/1 Ladbrokes
Lightly raced three year old who caught the eye on his handicap debut at Lingfield. Overcame wide draw and made the pace, was halfway through taken on for the lead but hit the front again turning for home just to run out of steam toward the end.
Better ground is likely to help here and the handicapper gives her a chance. A useful 3lb claimer is booked too. Trainer Philip Hide is very successful at Brighton, particularly with three years old’s in Handicaps, so bringing this intriguing filly here looks significant.
4.40 Brighton: Port Lairge @12/1 Ladbrokes
Trainer John Gallagher does really well in Brighton Handicaps over the year and has Michael Murphy booked for the ride on four times course winner Port Lairge. Jockey and trainer have enjoyed a fruitful partnership in the last years during Murphy’s time as an apprentice but there is no sign that this success will dry up any time soon.
Port Lairge usually runs very well at Brighton, having been placed in half of all his runs over today’s trip. Down to a workable mark, he is expected to run well.
6.40 Newmarket: Jupiter Light @ 5/2 Ladbrokes
Hot maiden but Gosden’s colt stands out with Dettori booked. Well bred for this trip and expected to be ready for the job on hand right now.
By Lonhro who was an excellent juvenile, out of Fantasia who was a pattern winner over 7f in her debut season – trainer Gosden often introduced successfully those types over the years.
An 8/1 winner, a second, a third and a fourth…. Wednesday wasn’t a bad day, though could easily have been a great one. Put Curriculum in your tracker. He could have finished mush closer than 4th and wasn’t killed with another day clearly looming large.
Also Fleeting Dream is rather obviously up to win a race sooner rather than later and got a not particularly well timed ride – though the handicapper may have seen the potential too by now.
So what’s on the menu today? Not much, I have to say. Two selections nonetheless, although not that confident ones.
7.30 Newcastle: Dream Team @ 20/1 Betfred
The odds-on favourite might be hard to beat but I take a chance on Michael Dods colt who did show little on his debut but now switches to the All-Weather which should very much suit on pedigree. Worth a chance today.
8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral
This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more.
The trainer & jockey combo of Burke/Vaughan enjoys quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.
The race looks open, with the three year old’s surely having a good crack at it, particularly feather weight Cooperess looks interesting, though didn’t look like winning in a similar race off an even lower weight the other day.
The summer is firmly on and this blog is dawdling along… time, where is the time? Today is a bit of time. My increasingly statics based approach to betting does slowly but steadily reap benefits. So I used the free minutes this morning to dig out some interesting horses for today’s racing.
But despite this being the time of the year for horses proving their worthiness on the holy green turf, the ‘charm’ of sand racing is never far away. Kempton offers some bread and butter material today. I like it.
I might update this post later on in the afternoon with one or more contenders… so keep coming back if interested….
7.10 Kempton: Curriculum @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
Very interesting contender for William Haggas who has a 42% strike rate this season in Kempton maiden races and a 70%+ place strike rate over the last five years here in this type of races – so one would assume Curriculum is reasonably fit going to post today.
The gelding showed promise in soft conditions at Doncaster last year and is open to a significant amount of improvement over this longer trip.
8.20 Yarmouth: Fleeting Dream @ 2/1 Ladbrokes
This rather well bred three year old filly of Dream Ahead should be very hard to beat on her handicap debut, dropping down to five furlongs which is very likely to suit down to the grounds.
Haggas seems to find always the right opportunities for this type of horse and while Fleeting Dream didn’t show much in three maiden races, she showed plenty of speed the last time in a hot race. Her opening mark of 56 could be lenient.
3.30 Bath: Forecaster 11/8 Betfred
This looks seemingly a wide open race but closer inspection shows this is an excellent opportunity for 3yo Forecaster. The slight step up in trip should bring out further improvement after two subsequent placed efforts this season. First time cheekpieces can be a big help too.
Michael Bell has a near 50% strike rate this year and consistently over time with his horses tried in this type of headgear. I suspect Forecaster will be able to find enough improvement to beat this very ordinary lot today.
4.00 Bath: Hope Is High @ 8/1 Coral
She improved dramatically from her maidens last month on her handicap debut at Yarmouth, though got a bit a rough ride. Once in the clear she ran on strongly to finish an unlikely looking runner-up. There is more to come and a 2lb hike in the mark isn’t enough to stop her to go close. I believe the slower ground will her here.
Jockey booking is interesting, as the Gordon/Berry combo has proved very successful this year, albeit the sample size is on the small side. Still, her 3lb allowance look significant given the 60% strike rate these two enjoy.
ONLY seven go to post, the Derby winner isn’t here, the 2000 Guineas winner isn’t here, yet only two individuals can boast Group 1 success in their CV…. this years Coral Eclipse is a slightly underwhelming affair, I have to say.
But the good thing is: potential superstar The Gurkha lines up in an attempt to make amends for what has to be regarded as a wasted chance when he was beaten in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot roughly a fortnight ago.
The Gurkha went off odds-on in the Group 1 contest, though endured not the best of luck in-running and maybe, only maybe Ryan Moore didn’t have his brightest moment either.
Whatever, it’s the past – the here is now. Aiden O’Brien’s inmate, a son of Galileo (how could it be any different?!) stormed last month to global attention in the Poule D’Essai Poulains – the French 2000 Guineas – where he blew his rivals away with a turn of foot that looked out of this world. Can he do the same today?
Absolutely! This lad is massive talent! Stepping up to 1m 2f should not be a problem at all, if not even bring out further improvement, and the softish ground is no trouble either. As a three year old he receives some handy amount of weight in a race without a clear danger from the brigade of older horses. Right?
Probably. Though the top rated horse is the four year old My Dream Boat. On official ratings The Gurkha has to find two pounds with the winner of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Trained by Clive Cox, My Dream Boat clearly ran to a career best at Royal Ascot, helped by the soft ground that day. He’s a real mud lover, without a shadow of a doubt and will hope Sandown retains as much rain in the turf as possible.
In my view he is clearly the biggest threat to The Gurkha from the older horses, though whether he can give the weight away against a rival most likely to improve another couple of pounds – I find it hard to see.
Widely regarded as the biggest threat in the public opinion is Roger Charlton’s Time Test. What’s in his favour is the relative freshness. He only had one start this season – a successful one, here at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes, a Group 3 event. It’s fair to say he may come on for the run and remains with potential to improve a bit for age, now as a four year old.
That says, he’s yet to prove himself on the highest level and probably is better suited to a fast surface. Yes, he does handle cut in the ground, but given a career best is required today, the ground is a worry.
Godolphin’s Hawkbill was a fine winner of the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s unbeaten in his last five starts, so obviously on the up and could still have more to offer. He relishes today’s conditions and his prominent racing style should see him in a good position when it matters most.
We can’t completely rule out Western Hymn. The “senior” in the race, he’s ultra consistent and usually puts his best foot forward here at Sandown. So it would not be a surprise to see him finish in the money. Still, something dramatic would have to happen for him to win.
Verdict: Whenever I side with a hot odds-on favourite, it usually is the kiss of death for the well fancied horse. Nonetheless I can’t look past The Gurkhatoday and find it surprising to been able to snap up evens odds. He’s more like a 4/6 chance in my book.
Prediction:
1. The Gurkha
2. Hawkbill
3: My Dream Boat
A historic day for Irish trainer Dermot Weld, who celebrated a first Derby success thanks to his brilliant Sea The Stars colt Harzand, who followed in the footsteps of his prominent daddy, who himself now sired a first Epsom Derby winner!
It was not a trouble free preparation, though. In fact it was touch and go in the morning whether Harzand would take his chance in the most famous flat race and the ultimate call was actually with Pat Smullen cantering down to the start! He went into the starting gate, thankfully, as we know the outcome by now.
Under a masterful ride by jockey Pat Smullen – also for him a first Epsom Derby success – the inexperienced colt was patiently guided through the field; Smullen settled him in a good position somewhere in midfield and rode with a cool head when gaps didn’t open up immediately in the home straight.
Harzand ultimately fend off a late surge by favourite US Army Ranger. He dug deep and found another gear when it really mattered. Given all the foot problems beforehand, it was a brilliant performance!
And The Ranger, whom I’ve been so keen on? Finished runner-up with plenty of credit. He clearly proved to be a classy individual. However it didn’t go to plan for him. Ever so slightly, yet decisively, he missed the break and didn’t seem to travel particularly well early on, subsequently lost every chance to be in a decent position. In a race where small margins can be the deciding factor about victory and defeat this was surely a tough ask to overcome.
Good Ryan, Bad Ryan?
After the less than ideal start, Jockey Ryan Moore took it easy on US Army Ranger, settled in rear, relaxed the horse and let him find his rhythm. Commentator Richard Hoiles called it during the race: “Us Army Ranger is given time” – which was the only real option in my mind. He was still third last turning for home but Moore gradually edged to the outer of the field to get a run. Gaps didn’t open for him and only inside three furlongs Ranger finally got into the clear.
Winner Harzand was already flown towards home at this stage, still Ranger produced a stunning change of gear and loomed large with 200 yards to go. But the big effort to make up so much ground in such a short space of time showed its effect and he ran out of gas in the final furlong.
Ryan Moore has come under scrutiny for his ride on US Army Ranger. As often in this game, opinions are divided. In my view this was a class ride by the world’s best jockey. He proved, despite defeat, why he’s simply the best. In difficult circumstances he gave his mount the best possible chance to finish as close as possible. Not always is a winning ride a good one and a losing ride a bad one.
Sure, it wasn’t the game plan to travel as far back as second or third last for large parts of the race. But inexperienced Ranger didn’t help the cause when he bottled the start. What other option did Moore haven than let the horse find his stride, relax him and try to preserve as much energy as possible? Hustling him up to make up ground would have been detrimental to Ranger’s chance, in my mind.
The fact that gaps didn’t open up when Moore (and I as a punter) would have wanted it is not his fault. These things happen in racing. Imagine the gap would open up over 4f out though – Ranger cruises through it, and maybe wins the race. You know what happens then? Moore’s going to be the hero!
It wasn’t to be. The gap didn’t open, Moore had to delay and ask Ranger for an almighty effort when the road was finally clear. In the end it was all a bit too much for US Army Ranger who still finished second – what is in fact credit to his class and the one of his rider.
In the end inexperience cost him, and for that reason it’s fair to say the best horse on the day won. Harzand was more professional, mastered the difficult test Epsom provides and is without a doubt a really good winner of the world’s most famous flat race.
Minding and the Beauty of Racing
These last two days were yet again a wonderful reminder why I personally love flat racing so much. Yes, it was a disappointment not to back the winner in the Derby with US Army Ranger, still I enjoyed the coverage, the races leading up to the big one, Postponed’s brilliant success in the Coronation Cup, the joy and emotions on Weld & Smullen’s faces after they won their first Derby….
However it was Friday’s performance by Minding in the Oaks that is the standout of the two days – she simply blew me away! When I saw her overcoming all the trouble in the Oaks, when I saw her blistering turn of foot, changing gears so smoothly like Formula 1 cars usually do, her wonderful attitude and enthusiasm – it was something else!
The speed, the beauty, the power, the elegance – it’s what flat racing is all about and it’s epitomized in this dramatically good looking and at the same time incredibly talented filly Minding. Her Oaks performance was one of those special racing moments you have to see to believe.
And no, I didn’t back her. It has nothing to do with money whatsoever. I’m just grateful for having witnessed her performance for the pure love of the sport. And on that front isn’t it wonderful to know our sport is yet again blessed with brilliant talents like Minding, Harzand and US Army Ranger? I love it!
“Everyone is knocking this horse, but they shouldn’t ….If we hadn’t have ran Port Douglas, US Army Ranger would have been an eight-length winner and would be a very short price for the Derby.”
Interesting words from Aiden O’Brien the morning after the Chester Vase when assessing the performance of his main Derby hope US Army Ranger, who, up until 24 hours earlier, was a rather foolish short priced favourite for the Epsom Derby – based solely on reputation, good hope and a single – albeit impressive – maiden win.
This verbal endorsement from Mr. O’Brien carries some weight though, doesn’t it? Sure, we hear it often enough from these connections; the “best we ever had” slogan comes all too easy over their lips, as critics rightly point out. Yet, this time it stands in a different light, I feel. It goes deeper.
These words and the overall reaction coming out of the Ballydoyle camp after what was widely regarded as an underwhelming success of US Army Ranger at Chester, felt more like wounded pride to me. How dare you doubting this horse? How dare you doubting our judgement?
They really seem to believe in this lad. And they are vocal about it. So no surprise to hear Joseph O’Brien adding: “He (US Army Ranger) shouldn’t be able to do what he’s doing (at this stage of his career). He could be really good.”
But then, jumping on the defence of US Army Ranger is not necessary. What does AOB care about the nagging doubts many in the world of racing have about his star colt? Let the race in June speak for itself! But that’s not what’s happening here. Team Ballydoyle wants everyone to know how much they like US Army Ranger.
Maybe that is because they have largely an underwhelming crop of three year old colts on their hands this season. Though, that might be better judged at the end of the season, given all those tremendously well bred colts walking around the paddock at County Tipperary every morning. Least we forget sometimes these horses just need a bit of time and suddenly appear to improve dramatically from one run to the next.
So why are they pushing this lad so much? All hot air? All calculated risk? All in the name of commercial success for the future stallion US Army Ranger? Yes, maybe.
Steep Learning Curve
Plenty of different opinions have been voiced in the aftermath of the Chester Vase. US Army Ranger scrambled home against stable mate Port Douglas, prevailing by a narrow margin. The ride on the runner-up came under scrutiny subsequently. Why did Seamie Heffernan not shut the door on the inside, why did he not go for his whip in the final furlong? All legit questions.
But the answer to those questions – does it actually matter in the grand scheme of things? What would have changed if Port Douglas would have prevailed by a short head? I reckon not much, expect for those who were the unlucky folks with a wager on him in the Chester Vase.
What this race did change was the general perception of US Army Ranger. Bookies, punters and racing experts alike clearly cooled off; three minutes was all it took, the sexy horse was not so sexy any more.
US Army Ranger himself won’t care much about all the fuzz. For him it was all about experience. Experience he doesn’t have much. He didn’t race as a juvenile. In that sense history is against him. A Derby winner unraced as a two year old is not all that common.
That aside there was plenty to like about his debut run at the Curragh in April. He was clearly green and probably didn’t really know he was in a race. Under a hands and heels ride he prevailed with plenty in hand, which was probably no more than a good workout. To step up from there right into a Group 3 at the odd track that Chester is, with huge crowds as far the eye can see – it must have been a bit of a culture shock for him.
Mind, the Chester Vase was probably not that strong a race quality wise, with only stable mate Port Douglas a serious rival. This Port Douglas, an experienced horse, with five runs under his belt at the time, already a Group 2 winner, provided a first stern test. US Army Ranger didn’t pass with flying flags. He passed with merit.
It is fair to assume he would have learned more in this one race at this strange, noisy, crowded, ever turning Chester track than he would have in two or three races elsewhere. That is the benefit of taking horses over there. And that’s the reason why Aiden O’Brien loves to bring his top prospects over there. They learn allot and he learns allot about them.
Did US Army Ranger show enough to be a real Derby contender, though? It always depends on the perspective. On the pure visual impact of the performance and on what was in the race rating wise he probably did not. If you believe he can learn and improve big time for this run, which – one shouldn’t forget – was only his second career start – he probably is one.
Now actuality has caught up with me – the essay above may be slightly outdated, given I wrote it the day after the Chester Vase and just forgot to publish it. But then has so much changed in the meantime?
To an extend, yes. There wasn’t much talk about USAR in recent weeks, and the fact that Aiden O’Brien saddles four other stable mates on D-day doesn’t scream confidence. Yet I stick to what I said and felt back then. He’s the one I want, he’s the one they all have to beat.
What about the opposition?
Something between underwhelming and decent. John Gosden’s Dante winner Wings Of Desire is clearly talented. He beat Aiden O’Brien’s Deauville in a tight finish. It remains to be seen what this form is worth. For all what it is now it doesn’t look all that impressive, though Wings Of Desire is certain to improve for going back up in trip.
Never underestimate Ande Fabre. His experienced Sea The Stars colt Cloth Of Stars is two from two this year. He never tried the trip before but should be fine. I rate him the main danger in this field.
Lingfield Derby Trial winner Humphrey Bogart appears to be a one paced individual and was probably lucky to win anyway, given third placed Across The Stars was full of running but never got a chance in the closing stages. He’s the better prospect of the two, and Kieren Fallon’s glooming words are to note.
Hazard landed the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown. He’s an exciting prospect, the form works out well and he is one of the more likely candidates to be in the shake-up, though has to prove his stamina over the Derby trip. A slightly underwhelming Idaho finished runner-up in the Ballysax. Clearly talented, but this big horse may not be ideally suited to Epsom I fear.
The Stoute camp really likes their leading prospect Ulysses. An impressive maiden win last time out, is still a dramatic step up in class. Irish Derby Trial winner Moonlight Magic has at least Group form in the book, and those gutsy types trained by Jim Bolger can often outrun their price tag.
Quite a few people jumped on the Port Douglas bandwagon right after the Chester Vase. And it’s easy to see why. He’s a big price and you can argue he was at least the moral winner of the Chester Vase. His performance there must give him a fair shot at the Derby.
Some arguments against could be: that was his sixth career start – how much more has he to offer? And is he best as a fresh horse? His three strongest performances came either on his debut or after a break – though he’s been off since Chester and that might be enough.
Summary
Is the form of anyone in today’s Derby field so much better than what US Army Ranger has achieved? Not really if you ask me. But to cut a long story short: this years Derby shapes like an underwhelming renewal. Unless something steps up or blows us away on the day itself. Can US Army Ranger be the one?
Of course he can! Look, I loved his debut run, I believe he learned plenty at Chester and I believe in the words coming out of the Ballydoyle camp stating this guys is massively talented. Am I naive? Possibly.
I am also aware of the fact there are plenty of stark opinions out there contrary to anything I argue here. That’s fine. This game is in fact all about opinions. Often different opinions. It’s the salt in the soup. And admittedly, I’m getting it often enough wrong. With that I’m certainly not alone, though.
Still, at 13/2 it is hard for me to pass on US Army Ranger for all the mentioned reasons. If he is as good a horse as I hope he is, this certainly is a big price. Particularly if you take the reasons on board why Chester was less a disaster as many like to think.
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