Monthly Archives: August 2016

Racing Talk

Hit It A Bomb Returns

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Finally we have the chance to see Hit It A Bomb hitting the race track as a three year old.! The most impressive winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – that’s now almost ten months ago – had plenty of problems early on this season and missed several assignments.

But Aiden O’Brien said the son of War Front is ready to go today to start of his campaign in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown.

Question mark are all over the place though: did he train on? Has he retained his brilliant turn of foot despite the long lay-off? Is he fit enough to beat a more or less competitive, albeit given his own potential class, rather ordinary looking bunch of mostly well seasoned horses?

Here’s hoping. Hit It A Bomb produced one of the most memorable performances of recent time when landing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – from the widest draw having to finish from an impossible position turning for home…. it was spectacular!

I suspect there is plenty enough left to work on for this very first step back into racing action today; as always with O’Brien horses, bigger targets loom large.

All I want to see today is him having trained on, finishing well, without getting a hard race. Victory is not necessarily the main objective here.

That obviously opens the door for someone else to step up and land a nice paycheck. Custom Cut, given he’s only 2lb rated below Hit It A Bomb, looks most likely do be the one benefiting from a potential lack of fitness of the favourite.

He hasn’t really show all that much this season though, certainly he’s not in the same form as all the years before, so whether he can still run to his current rating of 114 is questionable.

It’s not a betting race for me at all, but Jim Bolger can have horses ready after a break, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tribal Beat, last years second in the Killavullan Stakes, to run a big race here.

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Thursday Selections:

Two winners yesterday. Those were balsam for the ill-treated betting soul. Northern Thunder made most of a lack of pace in his race at Kempton and held on gamely, whereas it seemed the penny dropped for Sea The Stars son Space Mountain at Beverly.

1.50 Beverly: Street Jazz @ 11/1 Skybet
3.40 Salisbury: Bess of Hardwick @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

Racing Talk

Chauvinism alive?

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Paul Carberry

IT’S NOT been a great couple of days for women in racing. It started with a bang: Al Shaqab taken horses out of Criquette Head-Maarek’s yard! The trainer, famously known for guiding Treve to back-to-back triumph in the Arc, angrily suggested that this decision was all about gender.

This morning then news emerged from ‘Down Under’: Michelle Payne, last years Melbourne Cup winning jockey, has been taken off Prince Of Penzance – she won’t get the chance to steer the horse home on his Cup defending mission.

Chauvinism?!!!!

Well, hang on for a minute. Let’s first ask the question: do women find it generally more difficult to be successful in horse racing? Yes, they probably do. That’s probably fair to say.

But there is a simple reason for it, in fact a simple physical component plays the key role here. Undeniably women don’t have the same physical strengths as men – it’s a simple truth: men and women are different. Psychologically as well as physically.

That doesn’t say women can’t be great jockeys. History has proven they very much can. Only go as far back as last weekend to go to see some strong female riding performances at the Shergar Cup. Wasn’t Hayley Turner’s ride on Early Morning a brilliant piece of riding? Yes it was!

So there it is: women can offset for what they are lacking in pure power and strengths with excellent tactical awareness and forging strong emotional bonds with their equine partner.

However you cant begrudge a trainer who prefer pure strengths in the saddle. Whether one agrees with that or not. It’s their decision to make.

And let’s not forget: male jockey are taken off horses every day; horses moved out of yards too. Ask Luca Cumani, who lost his stable star Postponed not so long ago… chauvinism probably was not the reason, though.

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Happy retirement Paul Carberry! Injuries have taken its toll – its over for one the best jump jockeys of all time! But there’s really nothing to be ashamed of – the 42 year old had a glittering career, albeit with some ups and downs, some more more downs rather outside the race track than on it.

A 14 times winner at the Cheltenham Festival, plus a ton of other big race successes, Carberry always strikes me as a cool, calm and collected rider. Holding on to his mount for as long as possible, preserving as much fuel as possible for when it really matters – you got to have a cool head for that. And I admired him for this trait.

Here’s hoping he finds a new opportunity in life which keeps him happy and occupied now that his racing career is over. We know it can be difficult for jockeys to adjust to life after decades in the saddle, when they only know this one way.


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Wednesday Selections:

2.50 Salisbury: Point of Woods @ 10/1 Coral
4.30 Beverly: Space Mountain @ 6/5 Skybet
6.40 Kempton: Subatomic @ 6/1 WH
7.10 Kempton: Northern Thunder @ 5/1 WH

Racing Talk

Tuesday Selections

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Jamie Spencer

A day of seconds and thirds… let’s not dwell on it. Much more fun is to watch he ATR “Ride of the Month”! As always the At The Races team  selected a number of spectacular rides seen at tracks they show racing from.

I honestly find it hard to get excited about jumpers at this time of the year, so to see those type of rides appearing on my screen…. It feels odd, regardless of how spectacular they are.

Nonetheless, I want to give Ruby Walsh an honourable mention for the heroics he had to perform to get Penhill over the line at Galway. Any other month it might be the ride of the month….

But it’s the flat season, so for me the three top rides were:

  1. Jamie Spencer – Deavuille
  2. Pat Smullen – Xsquared
  3. Josephine Gordon – Dltripleseven

Of course Pat Smullen on a slipping saddle was horsemanship at its best, but I got to give it to Jamie Spencer.

Usually at the receiving end of stick of an army of armchair jockeys (predominantly on social media), he gave Deauville a peach of a ride from an impossible draw in the Belmont Derby, and miraculously had the horse in a prime sport turning for home, while saving enough fuel for when it really mattered. Well done!

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Tuesday Selections:

6.00 Nottingham: Champion Harbour @ 7/1 Bet365
6.15 Lingfield: Great Expectations @ 13/2 Bet365
7.00 Nottingham: Atlan @ 11/4 Skybet
7.45 Lingfield: Kristjano @ 7/1 Bet365

Racing Talk

Sunday Blues & Keatley Monday

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Leicester Racecourse

THE good: two winners @ 4/1 and 2/1 today. The bad: Air Force Blue is finished. The champion two year old of 2015 finished an eleven lengths beaten last in the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes….

There is obviously more amiss with him than team Ballydoyle may have wanted us to believe. It’s not a matter of not having trained on. Even if that might well be a factor, it can’t be the reason for one of the most dominant juveniles in recent history suddenly looking like a 30 rated claimer around Southwell on a dreary January afternoon.

I don’t understand it. That is for sure. I felt the drop in trip in the July Cup yielded in some promise, actually, given he travelled really well for a long time. But today? No explanation.

Another question remains unanswered, for the moment at least: retire him or give him a break and try to figure out what’s wrong in the hope he’ll save some of his badly damaged reputation later the year? Well, in my humble opinion the right decision is to send him off to stud. A tumble in the hay with some lovely mares – he may well thrive in the new job….

No surprise in the Phoenix Stakes. Aiden ‘Brien’s Coventry Stakes winner Caravaggio landed the odds without the slightest of problems. The son of Scat Daddy, now unbeaten in four starts, looks a proper racehorse (mind you, Air Force Blue did at this point in time 12 month ago too)!

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Monday Selections:

Riding the Adrian Keatley bandwagon at Ayr tomorrow – his runners, as so often, don’t make much appeal on paper, but his record at the Scottish track speaks for itself. Also his record with horses fitted with headgear, like a visor or tongue tie, or with apprentice Robin Dolan on board.

Also hoping Dragon Pulse can continue his early promise as a freshmen sire. There are some positives to find in a, admittedly, small sample size of his runners on the All-Weather. The majority of those, showing tremendous early speed.

2.45 Wolverhampton: Newport Place @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
2.30 Ayr: Buzz Boy @ 7/1 WH
4.00 Ayr: Jingle Jangle @ 8/1 Bet365
4.45 Wolverhampton: Coronation Day @ 11/2 WH
5.35 Ayr: Dea Dia @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
630 Ffos Las: Desdichado @ 10/1 Skybet
8.20 Windsor: Cosmic Sun @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

Morning Update: Cosmic Sun is N/R
Miday Update: Added Ffos Las selection

Betting Talk, Ireland, United Kingdom, USA

AiR Force Blue Redemption Day

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Not often you see a horse cruising hard on the bridle entering the final furlong in a Grade 1 on the dirt, particularly if they flew around the track right from the start – yet Frosted did!

He posted one of the most impressive performances of the season, following on from an equally ultra impressive victory in Metropolitan Handicap back in June.

If you didn’t see the race, staged last night at beautiful Saratoga, here’s a chance to catch up:


Hayley Turner you beauty! The multiple Group 1 winning formerly leading female rider in the UK looked healthy and happy at yesterday’s Shergar Cup – which in itself was great to see; no doubt her ride in the Shergar Cup Mile was THE highlight of the day.

Super cool, with (virtual) balls of steel, did she rode Early Morning to victory – and given she hasn’t ridden much since her retirement, she looked still quite strong in the saddle. Well done!

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4.05 Phoenix Stakes: Air Force Blue @ 11/8 Skybet

Yes, you got to be a brave man to put any amount of faith in fallen Ballydoyle star Air Force Blue. BUT he wins this – hands down!

Why? Well, it’s obvious that everything he showed as a three year old is so far below anything he showed as a juvenile – therefore it might be fair to assume he simply didn’t train on. On the other hand to my eyes it seemed more like he had some issues bugging him him early on the year plus it becomes clear he doesn’t last the mile trip.

On the positive side of things: when dropped to 6 furlongs in the July Cup you could see a glimpse of last seasons class. “What???” Some will say now. Air Force Blue beaten by feckin’ seven lengths that day!

That’s right, though look closely, as he travelled like a dream for a very long time albeit didn’t get the breaks he needed when it really mattered….. I know I’m making excuses plenty will think… but….

…..Air Force Blue drops down to Group 3 level today right in to a field he simply HAS to dominate, particularly with good ground sure to suit. He’s by far the highest rated individual in this race. Combined with his weight for age allowance he is virtually unbeatable.

So, no excuses today. None! If he fades badly today then we get an answer the question whether there is an underlying problem… potentially breathing (*think loud*). Until then I give him the benefit of the doubt and say 11/8 is monster value!

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The Best from the Rest:

2.20 Chelmsford: Migan Lily @ 3/1 Skybet
2.30 Leicester: Zeinhom @ 10/3 Skybet
4.50 Chelmsford: Stamford Raffles @ 15/2 WH
5.20 Chelmsford: Not Your Call @ 2/1 VC

Betting Talk, USA

Saratoga Preview: Test Stakes

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Speed-ball Kareena is hot favourite for this intriguing Grade 1 for three year old fillies, but you wonder whether she stays the 7f trip in what shapes like a race sure to be run at a red hot pace.

Mother Goose winner Off The Tracks appears to be a more dependable candidate over the distance. She clearly stays all the way and doesn’t lack speed – yet the drop to this shorter distance is something that puts me off.

Lewis Bay ran out a fine runner-up behind Off The Tracks at Belmont after bottling it at the start. Given he won over further, I also slightly wonder about the drop in trip.

At the prices Lightstream makes most appeal. A three times winner over 7f on dirt and turf, she lost her unbeaten record in the Mother Goose but was far from disgraced. She encountered a bad trip on the far outside around the home turn and just didn’t have enough left to challenge in the end.

The drop back to 7f will certainly suit, and this filly is tremendously talented in my mind. She often leaves it late, which could make things very nervy here, given Off The Tracks and Lewis Bay will go hard to the line. Still, at 15/2, she is the value in this contest.

 Saratiga – Test Stakes: Lightstream @ 15/2 Coral

Betting Talk, Shergar Cup, United Kingdom

Shergar Cup Day

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Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

“How can people moan about it? It’s a fun day, it attracts a non-racing audience, it’s good prize money, they’re good-quality horses… But people are always going to grumbl… Racing’s like that.” Says Hayley Turner in a recent interview with The Gurdian.

You can think of the Shergar Cup what you want – personalty have no stark opinion on – I don’t mind it, but wouldn’t be an enthusiastic fan either. Though I like the fact that the event usually brings together a variety of jockeys from all over the world competing against each other. So I’m quite excited to see top class South African rider Gavin Lerena in action at Ascot today, actually.

Now, it’s a huge day for racing, not only because of the Shergar Cup. Plenty is going on, and that needs time to properly assess. I’ll update this post throughout the day with thoughts on later races, just so I keep up with the time schedule of Ascot starting quite early.

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2.05 Newmarket: Wuheida @ 2/1 Ladbrokes

Extremely well bred debutant from a yard with brilliant strike with their two year olds this year, especially at Newmarket. This son of Dubawi is very much thought to be good enough to win one or two races. This race looks good, but he should be simply too talented.

3.15 Newmarket: Easy Victory @ 5/2 Bet365

The name is programme? Very possible. Easy Victory scored readily on debut for Saeed Bin Suroor over course and distance in similar conditions and she looks open to a significant amount of improvement for that experience as well as the step up in trip today.

1.15 Ascot: Out Do @ 6/1 Ladbrokes

Fine on this ground and clearly in good nick; ran with plenty of credit in King’s Stand Stakes and is one pound higher than his last Handicap win. Interestingly horses that finished 2nd in their most recent start have a very positive record in this particular race.

1.45 Ascot: Notarised @ 11/2 Coral

Tough assignment to over come given his weight however he loves fast ground and gets the trip. He’s also in good nick and has regular rider Joe Fanning on board who rides Ascot over two miles extremely well.

Ascot: 2.55: George Cinq @ 7/2 Ladbrokes

In outstanding form the last weeks and months and with Martin Harley a good Ascot jockey on board. George Cinq is a course and distance winner as well, who enjoys fast ground and who looks more likely to feature strongly in the finish here than most others.

Ascot 3.30: Lord Yeats @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

Clear negative to have Ikezoke on board but nonetheless this son of Yeats done pretty well with this season, where broke his maiden tag and followed up with an agonisingly close runner-up effort lto. 12f at Ascot should suit perfectly, as lon as he acts on quick ground.

Haydock 3.10: Muffri’ha @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Totally speculative and solely based on excellent jockey and trainer stats. The filly hasn’t shown anything in any of her recent starts to suggest she has form to go close, albeit, when she was in form, once upon the time, she looked talented.

William Haggas though knows what it takes to win Stakes races at Haydock, given a 32% strike rate here at this course in these type of contests. Even better, with jockey Ben Curtis on his horses in stakes races Haggas enjoys a 35.7% strike rate. So to bring the horse here with this jockey in the saddle looks significant.

8.10 Ayr: Forcefull @ 3/1 Betfred

Irish trainer Adrian Keatley is back at his happy hunting ground in Ayr, where he won 11 races with his last 27 starters. He brings winless filly Forecull over, however she ran with credit the last two times and off her new mark this looks a perfect opportunity to open her account.

 

Betting Talk, United Kingdom

Friday Selections

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A third and a fourth last night, nothing to exciting…. but both horses ran with plenty of promise. Dream Team was a bit of a gamble and went off single figures odds. He confirmed he’s one who can win a race, probably one to keep an eye on once he steps into handicap company.

On home soil, the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes took place at Leopardstown. I got to admit I was surprised to see Bondi Beach readily available at 15/8 during the day, though I should have been smarter, knowing how Ballydoyle operates. This was clearly a prep run, a slightly more intense workout, given the ride Bondi Beach received.

Clearly promising though, and he’s obviously better over further – another crack at the Melbourne Cup is on the menu next next? Winner Stellar Mass goes from strengths to strengths. Always talented, but finding it difficult to get his head in front – he was 3rd in the Irish Derby – he followed on from a recent success in Listed company and could be St. Leger bound.

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2.50 Wolverhampton: Tulip Dress @ 6/1 VC

Big chance for the only three year old in this race to add to his sole course and distance success. Trainer Anthony Carson does well in these type of race at the Wolverhampton Tapeta particularly this season and he has found another excellent opportunity to score.

3.10 Brighton: Onehelluvatouch @ 9/1 Ladbrokes

Lightly raced three year old who caught the eye on his handicap debut at Lingfield. Overcame wide draw and made the pace, was halfway through taken on for the lead but hit the front again turning for home just to run out of steam toward the end.

Better ground is likely to help here and the handicapper gives her a chance. A useful 3lb claimer is booked too. Trainer Philip Hide is very successful at Brighton, particularly with three years old’s in Handicaps, so bringing this intriguing filly here looks significant.

4.40 Brighton: Port Lairge @12/1 Ladbrokes

Trainer John Gallagher does really well in Brighton Handicaps over the year and has Michael Murphy booked for the ride on four times course winner Port Lairge. Jockey and trainer have enjoyed a fruitful partnership in the last years during Murphy’s time as an apprentice but there is no sign that this success will dry up any time soon.

Port Lairge usually runs very well at Brighton, having been placed in half of all his runs over today’s trip. Down to a workable mark, he is expected to run well.

6.40 Newmarket: Jupiter Light @ 5/2 Ladbrokes

Hot maiden but Gosden’s colt stands out with Dettori booked. Well bred for this trip and expected to be ready for the job on hand right now.

By Lonhro who was an excellent juvenile, out of Fantasia who was a pattern winner over 7f in her debut season – trainer Gosden often introduced successfully those types over the years.

Betting Talk, United Kingdom

Thursday Selections

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An 8/1 winner, a second, a third and a fourth…. Wednesday wasn’t a bad day, though could easily have been a great one. Put Curriculum in your tracker. He could have finished mush closer than 4th and wasn’t killed with another day clearly looming large.

Also Fleeting Dream is rather obviously up to win a race sooner rather than later and got a not particularly well timed ride – though the handicapper may have seen the potential too by now.

So what’s on the menu today? Not much, I have to say. Two selections nonetheless, although not that confident ones.

7.30 Newcastle: Dream Team @ 20/1 Betfred

The odds-on favourite might be hard to beat but I take a chance on Michael Dods colt who did show little on his debut but now switches to the All-Weather which should very much suit on pedigree. Worth a chance today.

8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral

This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more.

The trainer & jockey combo of Burke/Vaughan enjoys quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.

The race looks open, with the three year old’s surely having a good crack at it, particularly feather weight Cooperess looks interesting, though didn’t look like winning in a similar race off an even lower weight the other day.

Betting Talk, United Kingdom

Wednesday’s Summer Racing

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The summer is firmly on and this blog is dawdling along… time, where is the time? Today is a bit of time. My increasingly statics based approach to betting does slowly but steadily reap benefits. So I used the free minutes this morning to dig out some interesting horses for today’s racing.

But despite this being the time of the year for horses proving their worthiness on the holy green turf, the ‘charm’ of sand racing is never far away. Kempton offers some bread and butter material today. I like it.

I might update this post later on in the afternoon with one or more contenders… so keep coming back if interested….

7.10 Kempton: Curriculum @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

Very interesting contender for William Haggas who has a 42% strike rate this season in Kempton maiden races and a 70%+ place strike rate over the last five years here in this type of races – so one would assume Curriculum is reasonably fit going to post today.

The gelding showed promise in soft conditions at Doncaster last year and is open to a significant amount of improvement over this longer trip.

8.20 Yarmouth: Fleeting Dream @ 2/1 Ladbrokes

This rather well bred three year old filly of Dream Ahead should be very hard to beat on her handicap debut, dropping down to five furlongs which is very likely to suit down to the grounds.

Haggas seems to find always the right opportunities for this type of horse and while Fleeting Dream didn’t show much in three maiden races, she showed plenty of speed the last time in a hot race. Her opening mark of 56 could be lenient.

3.30 Bath: Forecaster 11/8 Betfred

This looks seemingly a wide open race but closer inspection shows this is an excellent opportunity for 3yo Forecaster. The slight step up in trip should bring out further improvement after two subsequent placed efforts this season. First time cheekpieces can be a big help too.

Michael Bell has a near 50% strike rate this year and consistently over time with his horses tried in this type of headgear. I suspect Forecaster will be able to find enough improvement to beat this very ordinary lot today.

4.00 Bath: Hope Is High @ 8/1 Coral

She improved dramatically from her maidens last month on her handicap debut at Yarmouth, though got a bit a rough ride. Once in the clear she ran on strongly to finish an unlikely looking runner-up. There is more to come and a 2lb hike in the mark isn’t enough to stop her to go close. I believe the slower ground will her here.

Jockey booking is interesting, as the Gordon/Berry combo has proved very successful this year, albeit the sample size is on the small side. Still, her 3lb allowance look significant given the 60% strike rate these two enjoy.