All good things must come to an end: after a week of travelling it’s back to bread and butter today. The memories of York, Windsor, Goodwood and Epsom will last, though.
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8.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
The pace looks potentially muddling in this small field. That makes it a tricky race to call and brings top-weight Compliant very much into the picture here.
The 4-year-old has to give weight away but loves the sand and this track. She may not stay 12 furlongs if run at a solid clip, but she may be able to be in the right position here and leverage her speed.
I’m intrigued by Page Three. She could be better than her current mark if the change of yards would help rectify some of her issues.
Mildyjama won well a highly competitive 10f race at this track when last seen. She was well placed, though. She may well be here once again, and that may negate the possibly negative of the new trip.
Even though a slow race may not suit her on paper, I hope this is the day to shine for Folk Star. I’m tracking the filly for a while and she didn’t prove quite as progressive as I hoped she could be this year.
In saying that, this trip will surely suit – on paper. However, Folk Star ran well, at the very least, a number of times this season over shorter trips as well. Most notably last time out over 11 furlongs here at Kempton, the race that Mildyjama won.
The run was a huge step in the right direction. She started well, travelled pretty well for most of the race in midfield, and showed a proper change of gear in the home straight, once she found a clear passage. She simply had too much to do from her position in the race.
Another day she wins it, I reckon. And with that in mind the filly proved she’s got speed as well. In this smaller field she won’t be too far off the pace, I hope, anyways. Off 63 with a good rider on board she will be competitive. Negative is the drift in the betting this morning.
It needed a 33/1 winner to break this most annoying losing run. Thanks to Royal Champion (16/1 SP) who travelled as wide as sweetly through the race and won, despite carrying a penalty, like a horse in a different league to the rest.
A confident, no-nonsense ride by Jack Mitchell. He seemed to have clear instructions to avoid trouble at all costs. And so he did.
That means my rotten run of 31 conseqeuitive losing selections is over. One more and it would have been the longest losing run ever for me.
It’s a funny game. Some big prices knocked on the door lately. Including Bucanero Fuerte earlier on Tuesday, with a great run for 3rd in the Coventry. But it wasn’t to be. Never mind. Today is a good day.
Also back in profit for the month, of course. Which is the most important thing. Always.
I would hope things turn back to some form of normality now, because they were not normal lately. I haven’t been doing anything fundamentally different and liked most selections, even with the blessing of hindsight.
One a different note: all eyes are on Royal Ascot this week, naturally. My eyes were on the announcement for the final field for the Durban July that took place this morning as well, though. The big race is less than two weeks away.
Final runners, weights and the draw were announced. The draw played a lesser role in the past, though. Class found a way.
Therefore, the #14 draw for Safe Passage – the one I fancy strongly – is less of a negative, as maybe even a blessing in disguise, as it may ensure now that there is actually a price available for him on the day that makes me want to back him.
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4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Small but select field for this renewal of the POW. Questions evolve around the pace. Who’s going to do the donkey work?
Luxembourg showed he can make it all, if needed. But it may fall to Classic Causeway who has shown plenty of good early speed in the US and he may find it hard not to pull his way to the front over this trip, if no other rival moves decisively forward early on.
Last years Belmont Derby winner could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead from the front, though, given his excellent speed. Although, the ground may not be quite fast enough for him and if all things go normal, he simply shouldn’t have the class.
2021 Derby hero Adayar returned successfully to the track at Newmarket in the Gordon Richards a few weeks ago. He confirmed his wellbeing. He ran a huge race in the Champion Stakes back in October, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
If he can run to a similar level of form as a 5-year-old then he’s firmly in the mix. On the other hand, in those five runs since his impressive Epsom success, his best speed rating achieved is a rather lowly 90 – for this grade at least.
My Prospero has hinted plenty of ability throughout his career and was arguably an unfortunate runner-up in the St James’s Palace twelve months ago. He’s yet to convince on speed ratings, though, hence may be found out against the very best here, as otherwise a massive career-best would be required.
Mostahdaf looks a bit short of class as well, if it coms to winning a Group 1. He deserves to be here and take his chance, but doesn’t seem to be top-class.
The same could not be said about Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, as they are multiple Group 1 winners. They meet here once again after their exciting fight in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh earlier this year.
Luxembourg got the better that day. He was forced to make all with no other pace in the race. He ensured that this was not a test of speed but rather a proper race to the line as evidence by his strong 110 speed rating – a career-best for the colt.
He looked a bit awkward in the closing stages, as he tends to do. At the same time he was brave and gutsy, fending off the challenge from Bay Bridge in the final furlong.
One could argue he had the run of the race. Certainly he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.
Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn’t enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.
On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He’s 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exceptional colt in line with the the vibes from Aiden O’Brien, who never wavered in his admirations.
Can Bay Bridge make up the half a lengths gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.
The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that’s confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.
The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn’t love it properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that’s what we’ll have on Wednesday.
Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge’s biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. He’s a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.
On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view – hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.
10pts win – Bay Bridge @ 7/2
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6.10 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes, 5f
How is this race going to work out from a pace perspective? There seems to be plenty of early speed. Over the stiff five at Ascot this may develop into a test of who is the fastest over the minimum trip and does stay a bit further than that.
Interpreting the pace map looks tricky, especially the way the sprint races developed on the first day. I make an educated guess and think it probably will develop into a mad dash to the line where everyone from anywhere could win.
In any case, the one I like against the field is Inquisitively. He has to step up to challenge the better fancied runners, like Barnwell Boy, who ran in impressive 90 speed rating on debut, or seriously progressive Maximum Impact.
Especially Barnwell Boy looks a rock solid favourite, especially if the stands’ side continue to ride faster. He was incredibly impressive on debut, but is a skinny price for the nature of this race.
Inquisitively in contrast, has only a 2nd place to his name that came in a class 5 Novice race at Windsor. Far from sexy. However, that form rates strongly in my view and may be underestimated.
For one, the race has worked out well in the meantime, and visuals meet the clock here too.
The overall time as well as the pace they ran for the first three- and four furlongs compared strongly to the other 5- and 6 furlong sprints for older horses on the same card.
That was mainly down to Inquisitively, who overcame the wide draw as he started quickly and gradually moved over the to the stands’ rail where he led and set a hot pace.
It was impressive to see him outbattle the eventual third, who had a better draw and was ridden with more restraint and who has won in the meantime as well.
That was over 6 furlongs and he appeared to have no issue with a drop to the minimum trip. In fact, I got the impression a stiff five may be an ideal scenario.
The draw is a question mark. As the going on Tuesday favoured the low numbers on the far side, according to the going stick. But wit no further rain expected I have hopes the track dries out well enough that tomorrow afternoon any bias has evaporated and we should get a fair race.
Since writing this post and backing the horse at big odds earlier today there has been a bit of money for him. Happy with my overall price, but anything lower than 15s and I probably wouldn’t have been writing this, given the competitive nature of this race, being totally honest.
10pts win – Inquisitively @ 20/1
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3.30 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Captain Vallo ran a huge race when finishing 3rd at Thirsk last time out. That was his seasonal reappearance and he could hardly have made a bigger impression that day.
He had to overcome the widest draw, far away from he favourable stands’ side. Yet, he travelled strongly in his group, made excellent progress to challenge in the closing stages, before getting tired in the last half furlong.
A superb comeback run. He must be in serious form and this easier race, down into 0-70, gives him a super chance as a winner over the course and distance.
Saying that, he’s not tremendously well-handicapped. But 6 furlongs at Hamilton on decent ground looks an ideal scenario in a race where not much else catches the eye.
10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/2
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7.10 Ripon: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Wen Moon had excuses last time at Nottingham as he hang his race away after making smooth progress in the middle of the race to go upside with the leader.
He showed tendencies before of hanging to his left side, hence, possibly a track with a guiding rail to his left would be ideal. The way the 6f at Ripon rides could provide exactly that.
The #4 draw is perhaps a bit too far away from that guiding rail, though, and a concern to get there early with plenty of pace around, too.
However, cheek-pieces are added and they may help him to focus better in the closing stages, as well as to be sharply away from the gate. He showed solid early speed in the past and is a course winner as well.
His current 83 rating gives him a big chance in this field, judged on his Pontefract victory in class 3 last month. He was disadvantaged by the widest draw and had to settle in rear.
As a consequence he turned widest for home for a run, while going best, as he made smooth progress to hit the front at the final furlong marker before he hang badly to his left. Nonetheless, he won well with plenty in hand I believe.
It was an impressive performance, given the deep ground and doing so against the pace bias. Wen Moon is almost certainly better on decent (not proper fast perhaps) ground. Only 3lb higher than at Pontefract, still lightly raced and gelded during winter – there’s more to come.
10pts win – Wen Moon @ 8/1
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8.10 Ripon: Classified Stakes, 6f
I backed Azaim the last two times and seemingly follow this lad over the cliff.
He was incredibly disappointing at Catterick, but was beaten before the race got hot, in fact, because of the way he started and the position he found himself in.
As a 28/1 shot in a hot contest at Carlisle he improved dramatically when sent to the front. He was ran down eventually, but it was a strong effort that confirmed the promise he showed at Musselburgh last month was real.
Judged on those two performances I feel he’s better than all of his rivals here. He looks capable of running to mid 50’s in the right conditions right now, especially judged on that Musselburgh run where first and second appeared quite well-handicapped.
No more excuses, though. He’s got the #9 draw here. Ideal to attack from the front, grab the rail and wave good bye to the rest.
Grim stuff today. I was quietly confident to back a winner, maybe even somewhat hopeful of landing the double, as I thought both Muy Muy Guapo and Revoquable were seriously well-handicapped in their races.
They may have been. Both ran – given the circumstances – not bad races. Although, Revoquable was eased after his big mid-race effort couldn’t make up for the disadvantage he had to overcome after the start. Muy Muy Guapo had too much to do from the back of the field and didn’t get the best of runs either.
It was a risk – and I willingly played the risk, so can’t complain and only wonder whether my judgement was correct – both horses are prone to sluggish starts to their races. So it happened, and that was that for their chances, basically.
This game can throw you off course rapidly. Only Monday a week ago I was still on a great run, having backed seven winners in a fortnight…eight days later, and it’s 17 losers on the bounce. Autsch.
It’s the usual up and down. Even last month, a solid green month, there were sequences of 14 losers and 10 losers. It happens. Over these last days there are perhaps two bets I would like to have back. The others I’d do again in the same situation.
Also many have ran well, but circumstances were against them. I back low-grade horses mostly – small things can change their fortunes dramatically. That’s all part and parcel of the game.
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7.50 Hamilton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
A hot race, pace wise, that’s for sure. I’m less sure about the depth of this class 4 contest. Not many of these 7 runners appear well-handicapped or open to any unknown improvement.
That could play into the hands of Pearle D’or, who remains lightly raced and somewhat unexposed as a four-year-old.
He caught the eye last week at Yarmouth wearing a hood for the first time. That day he quickly established the lead and clearly enjoyed the front, without showing the signs of keenness he did on his seasonal debut.
He kicked on well over 2f out and broke the hearts of most of his rivals, bar a strong winner who stayed on strongly from off the pace to wear him down inside the last 150 yards.
That was his 2nd start for a new yard after he changed hands for 40k and moved over from ireland.
The last two seasons trained by Dermot Weld, the gelding showed some promise, especially when landing a 6f maiden on his racecourse debut at Naas, when he also achieved a noteworthy 76 speed rating.
Things went downhill from there and he’s probably not quite as good as initially hoped after that debut win. But he’s down a possibly lenient 82 mark right now, and showed a proper sign of form last time out.
Decent ground should suit, he certainly acted on the fast surface at Yarmouth. Hamilton’s stiff finish could suit as well, given he won so well at the equally stiff Naas over this trip.
He also has options to move up in trip on pedigree. This extra bit of stamina, coupled with decent early speed, may be the ideal combination in this race with a hot pace expected up the Hamilton hill to the line.
With Respect was a huge eyecatcher the last two times as he appears to be in superb form.
Two starts ago at Salisbury he was heavily bumped by a rival as they jumped out of the gates, as he wasn’t helped by his own awkwardness, either. He then travelled strongly against the inside rail, made good progress and would have probably won, I presume, if he would have got a clear run.
He only got out late, switched, found momentum again and finished strongly. He ran to a 70 speed rating equal to his mark on the day and he makes plenty of appeal off 2lb higher the next time on turf. However, he ran at Kempton’s polytrack instead, a fortnight ago, over 7 furlongs.
He was disadvantaged from the #10 draw right from the start, and didn’t help the matter getting away from it awkwardly. He settled well off the pace, travelled a bit keenly, especially around the bend, but made tremendous progress from 3f out.
He finished best over the final three furlongs, but had too much do to get into a position to challenge, hence he wasn’t able to quite sustain his effort.
He’s yet to win over 7 furlongs and there’s a fair question mark looming over his ability to stay the trip. However, he showed in the past that he can finish very strongly over 6 furlongs, even on deep ground, so it’s worth a chance.
I think off 67 he’s potentially well-handicapped in this class, if he gets home and can get a clear run. The better draw should be a help, and there’s not much competition in this field that gives the impression to be well-handicapped.
In this big field getting a run may be the biggest challenge, in fact. He’s allowed to run off 5lb lower than his current turf mark and to me seems as good on sand as on turf.
10pts win – With Respect @ 13/2
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8.45 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Albegone must have a major chance as he drops down in class and has a good draw to get a position close to the the inside rail, after he ran a huge race last time out at Carlisle.
There he set a hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting understandably quite tired from over 1f out to finish 4th eventually as he got swamped late.
That should be good form I reckon. The way he travelled for so long was eyecatching. He’s clearly down to a very fine mark as the handicapper dropped him another 2lb.
Even though he’s best with ease in the ground, he’s competitive on fast ground too. After two placed efforts from three runs over this course and distance in the past, a victory looks a strong possibility here.
May seems to peter out in a disappointing way. Nogo’s Dream finished last. Lokada checked out pretty early too. Disappointing as surprising. Spartan Fighter a solid 2nd but ultimately not good enough either.
Four of last eight selections placed reads better than it is. No win, and most placed horses didn’t get too close. Given, I rated those chances highly and they were short enough prices I may have been slightly too aggressive and been not critically enough evaluating their chances.
One for the post-mortem to be done for this month, another time.
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2.10 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Imperial Khan was arguably unlucky about a fortnight ago at Catterick. A first career win was right take for the taking.
He was in the right spot, tracked the pace throughout and looked like coming with a big challenge from 2f out. However, the jockey kept waiting and waiting to go for it, only riding hands and heels. Suddenly it was too late, things became too tight in the final furlong and the horse was squeezed out.
With a clear run he would have gone seriously close. Has been dropped 1lb in the meantime. Now down to a career-lowest mark he of obvious interest, even in this slightly tougher race – tougher on paper at least.
Obviously the gelding is still a maiden after 15 runs so once can’t make too many excuses. I’m prepared to give him this chance as the low draw should suit, a good pace to track will help to settle and the fast ground likely to suit as his career-best performance came last July on fast five at Hamilton.
10pts win – Imperial Khan @ 5/1
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2.20 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Soul Seeker looks supremely well-handicapped today as he returns to a course and distance he likes on his preferred fast ground.
His two comeback runs after a proper winter break were solid, even though he doesn’t seem to enjoy the sand at all; I was taken by his second run at Beverley last month, though, in conditions far from ideal for him.
He moved quickly forward and crossed over to the far rail, where he led the field, although pressured all the way. He battled solidly before fading badly in the final furlong.
That’s strong form in general, and the run can be upgraded given it came on Softish ground. No doubt, he’s a different horse on better ground.
The last time he enjoyed a fast 5f furlongs was last August when he finished a strong runner-up at Haydock off 77, ran to a 78 speed rating, which was a 78 back-to-back SR performance, preceding a 77. He’s clearly a different animal on decent ground.
He didn’t get going on the All-Weather subsequently, toward the end of last year – those poor showings, coupled with the recent return on turf which the handicapper didn’t rate, he’s now down to a superb mark, 1lb lower than his most recent W.
A competitive renewal of the Musirora Stakes. Gather Ye Rosebuds looks potentially smart having run to a serious speed rating on her debut about three weeks ago.
But I’ll stick to Soul Sister, one of my Horses to Follow this year, despite a desperate seasonal reappearance, last month at Doncaster.
That run looks bad. But it can be totally ignored, in my view. The deep ground, 7 furlongs, her first run for the year. All came together and worked against her.
This daughter of Frankel should very much improve for better ground and as she moves up in trip.
Keeping that in mind, the more it looks impressive what she did on her sole run as a juvenile last year on soft ground over a mile at Doncaster.
That day she showed a superb attitude and staying qualities on her debut as she stayed on strongly to get up in the dying strides in a head-to-head battle.
She possesses a lot of stamina and will have no issues stepping to 10 furlongs, and possibly beyond. Her full-siblings have been pretty smart in their own right as well.
I am more than happy to give her ‘another’ chance, even though I had no interest to back her in the Fred Darling. I feel this is her first proper race this season and she is clearly overpriced.
10pts win – Soul Sister @ 21/1
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8.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 10f
Chinthurst is one of those handicappers I’m following this year as I believe he could have quite a bit in hand once he races over the right trip.
I was taken by his seasonal reappearance at Windsor last month in seriously deep ground. He travelled pretty well for a long time before he fell away badly to finish a long beaten 4th.
But this was a strong race, he may have needed it in any case, and there’s every chance he can improve from the outing and enjoy the better conditions today a bit more.
He also steps up in trip to 10 furlongs, which is most likely to suit. He’s a son of Nathanial out of a Dylan Thomas mare – you can be almost certain he’s going to improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip.
With that in mind, I felt what he did as a juvenile warrants respect and proved there is possibly more ability than his current lowly rating suggests.
After three unremarkable qualifying runs, he improved markedly on his Handicap debut and final run in 2022 at Brighton over 7 furlongs.
There he found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing a positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.
The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he’s rated only a pound higher today.
The wide draw and large field are a small concern. I also wouldn’t hope the ground dries out to anything beyond good. At given prices, and granted he’s been drifting, it’s worth taking the risk here.
In an ideal world Bang On The Bell would race off his soon to be revised mark, or even a couple of pounds lower, but I feel even off 71 he’s got a fine chance to win in this race against beatable opposition, especially with the race possibly to pan out in his favour.
I don’t judge him harshly on the way he dropped away last time he was seen. That day he had to overcame the widest draw – which he did – but was then way too keen in the first half of the race over 6 furlongs that was a stretch.
He’s better judged on his penultimate run over this course and distance as he encounters it here, when once again he enjoyed a perfect and quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders right before the field entered the turn.
He pushed a strong pace as part of trio, before getting quite tired in the home straight once again. That looks good form, and was an improvement on his comeback run prior.
In my view the last two runs warrant an upgrade. In that light, it’s clear he’ll enjoy the return to the minimum trip, this time without the disadvantage of a wide draw.
There’s only one other true pace horse in this small field, so it won’t be any hassle to get to the front. It should help that the other possible pace setter, Glorious Charmer – who doesn’t seem well handicapped now – is going to be there to help push a good pace,.
This scenario in turn may help Bang On The Bell to relax a bit better and then enjoy possibly the run of the race turning for home. He ran to a 72 speed rating back in August over this C&D, and 70 in December over 5f at Chelmsford – therefore he’s clearly capable to run to the level required to win here.
10pts win – Bang On The Bell @ 9/2
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4.55 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 10f
A minefield of unknowns but there is no question Dog Fox is the most intriguing one here. He’s one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark.
This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.
He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.
An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.
The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers.
10pts win – Dog Fox @ 3/1
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5.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Am I really prepared to follow Sharon Macready over the cliff? I certainly am! This filly is hugely frustrating but no doubt has some talent and is well handicapped if she can finally relax a bit better. She’s ready to win, sooner rather than later.
Going up in trip does seem counterintuitive. But I do believe the trip doesn’t really matter. She stays the distance as she is a proven distance winner and ‘all’ it takes is her to relax in the early parts a bit better. Without dropping her head she won’t get home even over three furlongs.
I can make excuses for her recent run at Southwell. It was as strange race, although one that looks strong the way the form worked out. Sharon Macready had an award start, also bumped rival, was a huge price on the day and never looked like the same enthusiastic individual she did prior.
I liked those three earlier runs this year – she showed often blistering early speed but made life difficult for herself. She is now down to a 60 rating – clearly she is better than that, also given her full-sister has multiple wins at 60+ to her name,
The race could work out well from a pace scenario. The low draw will help her to get to the front. She may enjoy an easy enough lead. She may hard to peg back over this course and distance if she finds a good rhythm.
Hill Station looks potentially quite well-handicapped back over 12 furlongs on the Lingfield polytrack. He’s the only one with any notable recent course & distance form in this field. Judged on his last All-Weather runs he may have found finally an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.
I willingly ignore the most recent outing over hurdles, even though he was fancied at this track four weeks ago. It was a strange race. He’s certainly better judged on the last sand performances, in my view.
With that in mind, when last seen here at Lingfield’s polytrack over 10 furlongs in early February he ran with plenty of credit as a 22/1 longshot. He tracked a solid pace a couple of lengths clear of the chasing pack, and made nice progress turning for home, before getting tired and fading back to 6th.
That run was in line with the promise he showed toward the end of 2022 at Chelmsford and over 12 furlongs at Lingfield, even more so, back in November.
At Chelmsford over 10 furlongs Hill Station got caught in the closing stages after running hard from the front. But especially the run prior over course and distance at Lingfield appeared to be a significant performance.
That day he was early up with the pace, however, got caught wide for the majority of the race. He still rallied strongly in the closing stages, to finish a brilliant 3rd and ran to a strong 63 speed rating.
That’s clearly the best more recent performance on offer in this poor field today. He’s been dropped another 2lb in the meantime, therefore and any repeat of that run will see him win this, most likely.
There won’t be too much pace pressure here. So he may enjoy it easy on the front as well and no danger of getting caught wise this time.
His sire has a poor record on the All-Weather, which is a concern. On the other hand, this is possibly a fact to negate, given Hill Station has proven he performs on the All-Weather.
It’s not often that this small and completely irrelevant blog gets much attention. And why would it? However, the piece about my self-experiment with the ProCush whip seems to have hit a nerve within the racing bubble.
This site received in the last two days as much traffic as it normally would get in two-three full months! The original tweet was seen over 225k times, and messages came flying from all over the globe.
It was an even bigger surprise when doing the cooking on Monday night when I usually listen to the Betfair podcast to heat Kevin Blake highlighting the piece (58:36).
It’s been a crazy 24h, that’s for sure. I am only a racing fan who writes about the sport. Nothing special. It shows there is appetite for real info on the whip, though. Something to address by the governing bodies. For all they lack the will, obviously.
On the betting front Galileo Glass finished a super 2nd today, but didn’t get the gap when needed. He surely would have won otherwise. Big Impact ran too free, unfortunately.
Ends February on minus 10pts. After a super start to the month, I now haven’t backed a winner in nearly three weeks, 16 selections and counting, and also 45pts down on the year. It will be all updated here by tomorrow, as always.
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2.30 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Muy Muy Guapo was a huge eyecatcher when last seen at Kempton. He was a bit awkward away from the gate, settled in last, then travelled strongly into the home straight.
He was easily able to answer every acceleration from the front group, but didn’t get a clear passage, while not really asked for full effort at all.
That was his Handicap debut and first run for the Simon Dow yard off a 100 day break. He is very much expected to improve for the run.
There is clearly a lot of talent, certainly compared to the opposition here. He’s still a colt and cost £115k as a yearling. Horses in this grade don’t often travel that well and can answer every pace acceleration that easily as Muy Muy Guapo did last time out.
He was even rewarded with a pound off his mark for that pretty spectacular effort. He looks tremendously well-handicapped.
10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 5/1
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3.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Big Bard ran better than the bare suggests the last two times. He came on my radar thanks a brave front-running performance on the last day of the old year. That form looks quite strong on paper.
He ran with credit next time out over 7 furlongs too, after things got rough in the early parts of the race, which meant he was set alight and pulling hard. He still travelled really well for a very long time.
The drop in trip to 6 furlongs is sure to suit here. He also has been dropped another 2lb, now rated 58. He looks handicapped to go close.
He ran to speed ratings 59 and 60 since September, although on turf, but his career best speed rating on All-Weather is 59, which he achieved twice, albeit at Chelmsford.
The race could be set up for him from the #2 draw with not much pace to compete with, if Hector Crouch wants to move forward.
10pts win – Big Bard @ 9/1
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8.30 Kempton: Classified Stakes, 6f
Good things come in threes, once again? I certainly hope so. I have given up on Paddy K after his recent gallant, but ultimately unfortunate runner-up performance at Southwell. He remains a maiden.
Instead, I go back to my trusted source of despair, that is May Remain. The 8-year-old ran a massive race last time out, when he moved rapidly forward from the widest draw and set the world alight from the front.
No surprise to see him finish a very tired horse. Still, he managed to finish 3rd, and that form doesn’t look bad in the context of this field.
He has the benefit of a #2 draw here, which is absolutely ideal. This course and distance favours front-runners and low draws. He won’t have his own way up front and there is danger that he does too much early on.
But the latest form, as well as a number of previous runs this winter, gave the impression that he is simply excellent form, and possibly better than the vast majority in this field.
The drop in trip looks possibly ideal for How Bizarre, who ran a massive race last time out at Newcastle over a mile. But ultimately his profile, as an 8-year-old, on the All-Weather, is totally exposed. Hence I readjust my interest toward He’s So Brazen, who looks also suited by the drop to 7 furlongs.
He caught my attention in early December at Wolverhampton for the first time. That day He’s So Brazen was was seriously keen throughout the race, but especially between 5 to 4 furlongs out. It was impressive, all the more when he loomed large seemingly ready for a big challenge as he entered the home straight. He fell away eventually, showed a high head-carriage, looked awkward, was wandering, and ran into trouble over one furlong out.
He also caught the eye on his next and most recent run, then at Southwell, over a mile. He led the field in first time blinkers, again showing signs of keenness, as he set a solid tempo, especially early on. I was impressed that he was able to kick on again three furlongs out, before falling away, proving awkward once again.
He has clearly issues and is a tricky customer. But he clearly got enough ability to win a race of this desperately low level, and remains somewhat lightly raced, certainly in the context of this race.
He doesn’t stay a mile and the jury is out whether he even gets home over 7 furlongs. A demanding, stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle could be right at his limit, I reckon. But what gives hope is the stamina on the dam side through the dam sire and the fact his sire’s record over this C&D is surprisingly positive.
In any case the drop to 7 furlongs is a major bonus, given that he should settle better, at the very least. Second time blinkers fitted should help him to be sharp out of the gate and he may be a bit better used to them now.
It’s only his second try over the trip – the first one came on turf as a 66/1 chance. Therefore he’s open to improvement. If he does settle and gets home over this trip he has a huge chance to outrun his big price tag.
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