Brilliant run by Beccara Rose last night at Sandown. With a furlong to go I thought she had it. Sadly she got tired, and two horses from off the pace came to catch her.
Shame, still searching for a winner after my return. Dartman faded away rapidly from two furlongs out.
…….
4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Better ground and a drop in trip should do the trick for lightly raced Captain Cuddles.
This race looks probably a little bit easier, although the same grade, as when he caught the eye a few weeks ago at Ascot.
That day he tracked the hot pace before he made good progress from three furlongs out to move into the lead eventually as the front-runner faded away.
He wasn’t able to sustain the effort but good third and only one in the mix late from those tracking the pace. Winner and runner-up came from well off the pace, instead.
He remains a lightly raced 3-year-old with scope for improvement off 80. I feel the drop in trip can only be a positive, as he may not quite got home over 7 furlongs at Ascot, especially with cut in the ground.
Captain Cuddles is a 6f winner on fast ground as a juvenile, and has only been seen three times since, including this latest return to form. The 5lb claim of solid apprentice Alec Voikhansky can only be a bonus today.
It wasn’t quite the dream start on Tuesday: Albegone finished 2nd, beaten by a head in a dramatic finish. At least I got a solid run for my money, which couldn’t be said for Mudskipper who went backwards as soon as he hit the home straight, much the same way his price went throughout the evening.
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2.25 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Plenty of question marks over most in this field, but 3-year-old gelding Dartman is a rock-solid runner who caught the eye in a hot York Handicap when last seen.
That day he led and set a solid pace, especially in the first half of the race. He hit the home straight in front but was soon heavily challenged.
Racing room became tight and he got hampered over 1.5f out, though was perhaps already going backwards. Nonetheless, I was impressed by the attitude he showed to keep going, as he found some momentum in the final furlong and run well to the line.
Dartman remains a maiden after six career starts, but showed promise a number of times and looks capable of a big run off a 74 handicap mark.
This isn’t a strong race and 7 furlongs at Brighton could suit him really well, if he handles the ground.
This is also William Carver’s only ride on the day. He goes pretty well and is one of the stronger riders here. The negative is the drift in the betting this morning. Although, it makes Dartman a very backable price in my book.
10pts win – Dartman @ 7/1
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7.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
I can see the appeal of unexposed Muktamil off a low mark as the son of Sea The Stars should enjoy this trip. But as many in this field, plenty of question marks on fitness and form. This is wide open.
Not sure today is her day, the drying ground however should be a big help, Beccara Rose appears overpriced as she moves up in trip as well and should enjoy the 10 furlongs at this galloping track.
I thought her last run at Kempton was huge given the circumstances in what was a strong race. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go close.
There she was slowly away, but soon recovered and doing probably too much to move quickly into a midfield position.
She kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fastest over the last three furlongs but couldn’t quite get to speedier and better placed rivals.
The return to turf will suit as long as the ground continues to dry, which is expected during a hot day. I believe she could be well-handicapped here if allowed to run on merit.
She showed promise in the past and had excuses in her lesser runs as she didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action, while her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on decent ground as well.
But it remains noteworthy Beccara Rose was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on her debut – in soft – last year.
Hello world, I’m back. I needed a little break: after many months of diving into racing all-out day after day through the winter, spring and the first summer months, some rest was much needed.
Many thanks to all of you who asked through various channels whether I’m okay – that’s really appreciated. I’m okay.
With everything in life for me it’s all in or all out for me. I watch tons of racing and love it. But there comes a point when it becomes too much and time away from the game is needed to recharge and especially renew the excitement.
Truth is, I do enjoy the betting side much more during the winter. It’s less racing and less horses to keep track of. I can easily watch all the races without rushing and it never becomes a slog.
The flat season is tough. It’s so much racing. I love the big races but my bread and butter are the low-grade Handicaps, especially over shorter trips. It’s simply too much, though. Who knows whether I’m the only one but the vastness of racing on offer can become overwhelming in the summer months.
Hence, practically ever year, at some point between July and August I have to pull the plug and let it all go. And then come back happy and ready to be all in. So here we go again.
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8.10 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Albegone proved to be in good nick when rather unfortunate last month at Catterick as he got stuck behind a bunch of horses and came home easily with the impression there was more in the tank.
He’s a tricky sort, who can pull for his head and has a tendency to hang, but his recent runs were – to the most part – better than the bare form.
I find myself going back to his 22/05 performance at Carlisle especially, where he set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired late. That’s strong form.
He’s 7lb lower now, a pound lower than the speed rating he ran to in May, so he should be seriously competitive in this field as he He drops in class into 0-60 company.
The ground won’t be an issue: Albegone is seen to best effect with ease in the ground. He ran well at Ripon in the past as well.
10pts win – Albegone @ 6/1
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8.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
Mudskipper hasn’t fulfilled the potential I thought he had before the season. However, there are some valid excuses as well, and now gelded, going up in trip again on his All-Weather debut he could be underestimated.
He showed promise last year in three runs but was a disappointing favourite at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance back in April. He bumped into a well-handicapped one and the ground was tough that day, so perhaps he just didn’t get home for valid reasons.
Over a mile in his next two starts, a trip most likely a bit on the sharp side, he never looked like winning but I thought he ran with plenty of credit, especially the last time at Sandown where he didn’t get the best of runs but finished well in the final furlong.
The longer trip is sure to suit today, as could be the switch to the sand and with headgear on it may help him to stay better focused in the closing stages.
Competitive in nature as these sprint handicaps tend to be, there are about a handful – at most – handicapped to win. British raider Came From The Dark is definitely one of those.
He was a massive eyecatcher last time in the infamous Epsom Dash where he finished the fastest over the last three furlongs.
That day he had a lot to do after missing the break and getting pushed over to his right by a rival right after leaving the gate. Eventually he ran on incredibly strongly with a huge effort on the far side of the track.
That run confirmed the impression he gave at Newmarket before, where he also finished the best and was somewhat unfortunate finding himself behind horses at a crucial stage.
Clearly Came From The Dark is in sensational form. However, he didn’t get off to a good start the last two times now. Is this a new habit? A clear concern, as it would be game over here if he loses a lengths at the start.
On the other hand, the uphill finish over 5f at the Curragh should suit a lot and he is drawn right around a lot of pace to possibly tow him into the finish, where he needs possibly a bit of luck for the gap to open.
Off 89 he’s well-handicapped, no doubt. Ground, trip and track will suit.
10pts win – Came From The Dark @ 15/2
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3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish Derby, 1m 4f
Auguste Rodin is the overwhelming favourite and there’s every reason to believe he can do the special Epsom & Curragh double today.
Too imposing was his performance last month in the English Derby, as he cruised into contention over two furlongs out and kicked clear off a very good colt in King Of Steel.
He ran home the fastest over the final three furlongs and did it easily. There’s no doubt he’s incredibly hard to beat. Perhaps he’s nearly unbeatable – as much the odds suggest.
Aiden O’Brien has assembled an armada of runners, probably to ensure a safe passage and solid pace.
Unfortunately the final field has somewhat cut up to the point where the Irish Derby becomes nearly a family affair for the O’Brien clan. In saying that, the two “foreigners” are of huge interest, and add spice to the race, nonetheless.
White Birch has proven himself to be a seriously talented colt. On speed figures his runner-up performance in the Dante rates actually a pound higher than Auguste Rodin’s Derby victory.
Different track, different trip, though. Nonetheless, the Ballysax winner caught the eye in the Dante and subsequently the Derby with the way he finished his races. Both times not ideally placed.
If he could start better, and doesn’t give himself too much to do early on, he’ll be closer at this more conventional track, that is the Curragh. The likely good pace and stiff finish should suit.
The other one is Sprewell, Jessica Harrington’s colt. A winner of a minor race at Naas on his seasonal debut, he showed signs of developing into a really good one in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.
He kicked nicely clear in the final furlong of the talented Up And Under, who is also here today, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and one who also could feature.
Sprewell, though, is the one I’m most interested in for win purposes against Auguste Rodin. The question then is, what are the reasons for him to find seven lengths today? That was the distance he found himself behind at Epsom, where he finished 4th.
The factors that could see him getting a lot closer this time are the track, the ground and the hope for natural improvement.
Epsom was only his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still quite a bit keen and raw at various stages of the race.
Certainly he didn’t enjoy the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. He also had mitigating factors in the home straight for not finishing closer.
Sprewell found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out. He was ever so slightly hampered in the preceding furlong as well.
Wen he tried to go through a gap, splitting the middle of two rivals, he became severely unbalanced. It was impressive and the sign of serious talent that he found his momentum quickly back before his stamina ran out in the final furlong, though he still finished with the 4th fasted final furlong split, and 5th best over the last three furlongs, despite all the trouble.
The galloping Curragh should suit a lot more, so should the less fast ground. He may be ridden with a bit more restraint as well, and then slowly easing into contention. Whether he truly gets home over the Derby trip, up the hill, remains to be seen.
My feeling is 10 furlongs may turn out to be the optimum. On the other hand, in the Derby trial, on heavy ground, he was gaining the further they went in the closing stages.
The truth is most likely, Sprewell will find Auguste Rodin too good. At the given prices, I feel it’s worth to back Jessica Harrington’s horse, though, as there are legitimate reasons to believe he can get a whole lot closer. And this is racing, things can happen.
One of my favourite races: A Grade 1 Handicap, an intriguing puzzle to solve every year – South Africa’s biggest race.
The 2023 renewal of the Durban July evolves all around favourite See It Again. A rock solid favourite with a solid draw.
The Cape Derby winne,r who beat superstar colt Charles Dickens in that race earlier this year, enjoyed a perfect prep with a fine runner-up performance in the World Sports Betting Guineas and a subsequent commanding victory in the Daily News 2000, both runs at Greyville.
That Daily News 2000 success is the standout piece of form and one would think he’ll be able to bring this form to the next level as he takes on older rivals for the first time.
He possesses a nice turn of foot and excellent cruising speed. Exactly what you need in the July. He looks competitively weighted as well with 65.5kg on the back.
Question marks I have: does he see out the trip on softish ground and will he find himself in too much trouble when it matters most? He’s not a straightforward colt.
Recent Dolphins Cup Trial winner Winchester Mansion is an obvious candidate, thank to that brilliant 3.5 lengths success last month.
A good #4 draw, he has a lot of finishing speed and could be well placed. He won over 2400m in the past, yet on softish ground, with a decent pace expected, in a highly competitive field, he may lack the required stamina over the July trip.
Justin Snaith #1 seems to be Without Question with Richard Fourie picked the son The United States.
He was twice beaten by See It Again already over 2000m. Although, that was on level weights. One feels he’s been brought along with the July very much in mind and he’s dangerous if he stays the 2200m distance.
The same can be said for 3-year-old Pacaya from the same stable. He’ll love the ground, has course form and is highly progressive.
On breeding he’s got a solid chance to stay the trip as well and there’s surely more to come. The #12 draw isn’t a worry and he’ll be a danger if he can take another step forward.
Last years third and probably Mike De Kock’s best chance is Safe Passage. I was sweet for a long time on him, and still believe he can run a strong race.
His 2022 run warrants an upgrade and with a clear run he has a shout with top man Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. He’ll need a bit of magic from the #14 draw.
Increasingly I begin to wonder weather Safe Passage is in love with this track, despite his Daily News 2000 success last year, though. One also has to question whether he has improved since last year. A bigger weight, difficult draw. Not sure there is much juice in his current price.
The other De Kock runner Dave The King has been talked about as a “dark horse”, although not so dark anymore when prominent racing people give him a huge shoutout.
His form gives this progressive 3-year-old a strong chance to feature prominently in the closing stages, if he can stretch out over the 2200m.
If the pace isn’t on, his chances increase plenty fold and 16s could look huge. He’s got a 100% record with a bit of give in the ground as well.
SA Classic winner Son Of Raj will stay every inch of the distance today. Whether he can bring his best form to Greyville is the question mark. He was disappointing the Daily News 2000 and may prefer the longer straight of Turffontein.
Rascallion may not be good enough against this opposition. Puerto Manzano has never looked really home at Greyville.
Well rested Billy Bowlegs comes here as a fresh horse and has question to answer on trip and ground. He has some strong form in defeat, though, and could go close with any improvement.
Perhaps unfortunate in the Met earlier this year, nonetheless hard to fancy over this trip is Pomp And Power. A highly talented individual, but equality enigmatic.
Veteran Do It Again is here for his final dance. Twice he’s won the July in the past. A true superstar of South African racing, still managed to finish a gallant 4th last year. He shouldn’t be good enough against younger rivals, though.
Two fillies that take on the boys today are of serious interest to me:
Rain In Holland is the recent Woolavington winner here at Greyville. She kicked clear in the final furlong, finding more and more as the race went on. She looks like crying out for an additional furlong.
An uncomplicated filly, she can move forward, travel, track a pace, kick and she loves it at Greyville.
She is incredibly tough and gutsy. A 2-11-4 record speaks for itself. Six runs in 2023 already is somewhat unusual for a fancied runner in the July. However, since February she ran only three times, which seems to have been an ideal prep.
Her form clearly stands up well. A strong and slightly unlucky third in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge, she landed the Woolavington in super style last time.
The weights aren’t quite in her favour, nonetheless I feel she is totally underestimated here in the betting. The top man on board, he’ll likely move forward from the #17 draw, and could overcome this perceived negative quickly.
If she finds a good spot, not caught wide early, you can be sure she’ll go down only for a seriously hard fight. There won’t be many in this field that find more when the final furlong marker is approached.
The other filly I feel is clearly overpriced is Woolavington runner-up Time Flies. She is highly progressive as a 4-year-old and still lightly enough raced to find more improvement.
She’s also quite uncomplicated, likes to be forward, and has the #3 draw to get that prominent position early on. Form wise she has to improve and take it to the next level, however she has answered all calls recently.
A fine winner of the Listed East Coast Cup over 10 furlongs at Greyville, she took her form to the next level in the Woolavinton.
Her Woolavington run warrants a huge upgrade given the tremendous progress she made from 5 furlongs out on the widest outside to hit the front in the closing stages, before she tired and still managed to hold on for 2nd place.
Whether she truly gets 2200m remains to be seen. Although, the full-brother stayed 2400m – so there’s more than just faint hope. She’s better off on the weights with Rain In Holland today as well.
5pts win – Rain In Holland @ 17/1 5pts win – Time Flies @ 35/1
June is over: 29pts profit. I guess, the way it went that counts as a major success. Quite how that is possible to turn a profit in a month with runs of 31 and 16 conseqeuitive losing bets is remarkable as it’s not sustainable.
Some big prices saved the day. Whether the rest was just unfortunate or more to it, I’ll need to dig deeper. What is certain: I had too many bets. The overwhelming amount of racing doesn’t help.
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8.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Nibras Rainbow seems difficult to catch as he couldn’t follow on from an eyecatching run at track when last seen at Wetherby.
I felt he had excuses that day, though. Heavily bumped soon after the start, he lost his balance, was lit up, and used up energy to get moving forward. He was early beaten enough, nonetheless.
I have to go back to his penultimate effort over the extended seven furlongs here at Lingfield four weeks ago. A strong run and excellent form:
He dwelt from a wide draw, rushed forward on outside before crossing over to lead the field. Was then still going well two furlongs from before before heavily challenged. He was seriously gutsy to stay in front for as long as he did.
Nibras Rainbow ran a career-best speed rating that day, in line with his current mark. Can he repeat the effort today, and may find a bit more? A decent start, from the #6 draw, could ensure that.
This is a wide open contest in my view. The favourite may improve again, but has to for the return to turf. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, so worth taking on.
Nibras Rainbow is drifting in the betting this morning. But I feel he’s moving out to a huge price, if here to run on merit.
Plenty of things change for Malham Tarn Cove today: a slight drop in class, drop in trip and certainly better ground than the first two times he was seen this year.
Last time at this track over 6 furlongs he caught the eye in deep ground as he travelled quite well for a long time, made solid progress from 2f out to put a good challenge to the long-term leader.
The effort on the soft ground took his toll as he got pretty tired in the final furlong and had to settle for third place in the end.
This looks strong form and he meets lesser rivals today, while the handicapper has been kind to leave him on the same mark.
The change in underfoot conditions is intriguing. While the dam did all her best work on soft ground, the sire was top-class on a faster surface. He doesn’t seem to have that high a knee action to think he needs soft juice in the ground to be seen to best effect.
I also think he showed solid enough early speed in his two Handicap runs this year to suggest the drop in trip won’t be an issue, especially in this field.
A solid pace looks likely, which will suit. The only negative is the fact he’s drawn away from the pace. I hope that won’t be a big problem and he can get out of the gate well, to move right across and track the likely pace setters Big Impact and Buddy’s Beauty.
Off a lowly handicap mark, if the ground and drop in trip can bring out improvement he’ll be well-handicapped here.
Saying that, the market seems to have caught on this, I’m late to the party and the juice is squeezed out of the price rapidly. Wouldn’t go much shorter than 4s.
I’m intrigued by Ignac Lamar dropping down to 6 furlong again, with Oisin Murphy keeping the ride and the tongue tie applied.
The gelding caught the eye the last two times, although only made me took proper notice last time out after his excellent 3rd at Leicester.
That day Ignac Lamar was quickly forward, led as part of a duo on the far side. He was gutsy and only went down fighting late in the day, to finish 3rd, eventually.
That looked seriously strong form on speed ratings and the previous form of the winner and runner-up. He achieved a career-best 67 speed rating on turf as well.
Prior to this in a better race at Wolverhampton he missed the break but ran home pretty well, especially making excellent ground from three furlongs to the final furlong.
The speed for 6 furlongs is definitely there, and he may find 7 furlongs perhaps a stretch, especially if properly run.
Going back on the turf is intriguing. 0/7 but ran a number of times with credit and remains somewhat unexposed on the grass and sprint trips. Tactically the race could work out nicely, too. He has got the possible front-runner drawn right beside him, to possibly tow him nicely into the finish.
I have slight concerns over the fact that he has finished weakly on some occasions. So, hopefully the tongue tie is a help, although when he wore it the first time last year he bombed out.
But 6 furlongs against 0-70 opposition on fast ground and a straight track could be an ideal scenario on turf for him to get off the mark. He won off his current mark on the All-Weather over this trip and ran to a 70 speed rating. Judged on the latest effort he’s as good on turf.
Going against older horses for the first time is intriguing as well. He’s quite experienced, and could utilise WFA successfully here.
Royal Ascot 2023 saw many memorable performances, in victory as in defeat. Here’s a list of horses that caught my eye during the last week at Royal Ascot.
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Tuesday, 20/06/2023
2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes:
Clearly the best finishing here was favourite Inspiral. She was fastest through the last five furlongs but was at a disadvantage having to come from well off the pace with a run on the wide outside of the field, away from the pace and possibly without cover much earlier than ideal.
She is a suspect starter, a tricky individual, but obviously top-class. She was the best horse in the race and simply unfortunate the way the race developed.
Whether she can back up this performance remains to be seen. She ran a 100+ speed rating here, for the second time in her career.
Inspiral looks to have the measure of the older milers but remains tactically vulnerable to any more straightforward and prominently ridden horse in a race where the pace isn’t red hot, as well as once she meets the Classic generation.
The biggest eyecatcher to note for the future was Pogo, especially once he drops down in trip. He was certainly ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile.
He had too much to do from the rear of the field but the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, even more disadvantaged than Inspiral perhaps, was seriously impressive.
He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong. This performance demonstrated he’s still in strong form, though. He may be underestimated when he drops to a more suitable trip the next time as his recent form reads poorly on paper.
The lower to middle drawn horses dominated. In that context Anaf’s effort for third is noteworthy. I’d be not too sure whether he’s able to repeat such huge performance, though. He’s not really shown to belong in this class and his effort petered out quickly in the final half furlong.
Even more impressive was Twilight Call. Badly squeezed right after the start, he found himself at the rear of the field and gave ground away early on when switching to the far side.
He didn’t get a run until very late, in fact only got into the clear just over half a furlong from home, yet finished the joint fastest final furlong split and second best for the last four furlongs.
A strong pace, minimum trip and decent to fast ground are his optimum. This was a clear return to form and he’ll be dangerous in the right conditions. Though, he’s far from a prolific winner, given that he needs everything to fall right.
Paddington was in a different league to the rest. He’s quickly proving himself to be the best of the three-year-old milers. He has the speed and the stamina and didn’t get an ideal trip. Still won easily.
Clear second best in the race was Charyn, I believe. The only one who could somewhat make an impression in the home straight and ran home the fastest final furlong, even though “fast” was relative in this case.
He came from off the pace, which wasn’t ideal, and as a consequence turned wide for a challenge. Class probably got him through the finish more so than stamina.
I’m not sold on his stamina for a properly run mile. He was eyecatching at the Curragh as well in the Irish 2000 Guineas, though that wasn’t a fast race.
A drop to 7 furlongs looks ideal. With a solid pace and decent ground he could be an intriguing runner. Has an entry for the 7f Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh next month.
The best horse won on the day. Royal Champion gave ground away all the time, yet that ensured he was in the right position when it mattered most. He can win a Group race.
So may be Checkandchallenge. He’s already a Group 3 winner, and often runs consistently well, although equally as consistently found out for class in Group 2 level and above.
He was restrained from a very wide draw here, had a lot to do as he entered the home straight but ran home extremely well. In fact, he finished the last four furlongs the best in his first attempt over 10 furlongs.
On pedigree he has scope to stretch out and could be interesting back in Listed or Group 3 class over this trip. He’s yet to impress on speed ratings, but I feel in the right race (could also be a strongly run mile) he could finally run to something significant. This performance was hugely encouraging.
So was King Of Conquest. He was caught wide early from his draw, before settling at the back of the field. He also had a lot to do from there as he turned wide to run home strongly, without getting beaten up late.
He’s still progressive, achieved a career-best speed rating here and deserves a crack at a Group 3 or perhaps even one of the lesser Group 2 races over this trip.
Bertinelli had a wide draw and top weight to overcome. He was taken off his feet during the frantic early fractions but made strong progress from 4f out as he turned wide, touched a rival as they entered the straight and ran home strongly.
He achieved a 104 speed rating. That is Group class and would give him a shot at a Group 1 even. I have maintained my belief in his class for a long time and am somewhat surprised that we saw him here and not in the Irish Derby.
He stays well and could go up in trip as well, which may be less competitive. The Leger or perhaps Irish version for that matter, would be intriguing.
Land Legend is the other horse who made a huge impression. He was slowly away yet again, and had a lot to catch up early on. After the first two furlongs he was then quicker through the next part of the race than those that finished in the placings.
He was stuck behind a wall in the home straight, though, until 2f out as he quickened nicely, as one of the few actually able to quicken, before getting badly short of room at the final furlong marker again.
Slowly away in nearly all his starts, he gives the field often a head-start. Nonetheless, if he could somehow manager to get better out, he’d be well handicapped off his mark and may have options beyond Handicaps as well.
The two early leaders on the far side make appeal for the future for different reasons. Quick out of the gate and doing way too much too soon, especially in the first two furlongs, was Forca Timao.
He faded badly, as one would expect. The drop to a mile didn’t yield in a return to form, seemingly. Though, he strikes me as oddly campaigned. He ran a huge race in a slowly run Gold Cup Heritage handicap at Newbury, but doesn’t look like one who truly stays that trip.
He may stretch out well to a mile, ultimately, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be most intriguing. He may offer some upside then, especially if the handicapper is kind and drops him below 90.
If the handicapper is kind to Thunder Ball and doesn’t raise him too much, if at all, for his 3l beaten 4th place he remains an intriguing runner as well.
Despite helping to push that hot early pace, he was there in front for a long time, fighting strongly and showing excellent attitude.
He was very impressive in a Novice Stakes in May and could have more to offer. A drop down to 7 furlongs wouldn’t be a worry at all, may be even ideal.
The winner was the best horse in the race and gives this form a strong look. Some of those behind him can be marked up and deserve another chance.
Expolanet is an obvious one. from the #11 draw caught wide early, and for most of the race, he was positioned in midfield, gradually progressing, using more energy in the first half compared to Waipiro.
He turned wide and lost a bit of momentum, which he quickly regained before getting hampered 1.5f from home. He got going again, but that was the moment the winner went through and kicked on. He held on well for 2nd.
A clear run and he finishes perhaps only a lengths behind the strong winner. Didn’t impress on speed ratings yet but caught the eye when unfortunate in a hot race at Newbury.
Bolster ran in the same colours. He ran green in and keenly in the early part, jumped to his right, gave the eventual winner a bump.
Was closer to the pace than most that finished ahead of him. Made good progress upon entering the straight, but received a bad bump by the shifting front-runner 2f out. Got going again, but short of room 1f out once again.
Lightly raced and definitely more to come. Not sure he wants further and on pedigree a drop to a mile wouldn’t look like a bad thing either, perhaps.
Danny Tudhope gave Live Your Dream and inspired ride from the front, quickly overcoming the wide draw. He did way too much in the first half of the race and had no business finishing so well.
A huge run, he obviously has stamina in abundance but also tactical speed as was on evidence here. He achieved a superb 101 speed rating and he warrants a step up into pattern class.
Has only entries in Handicap company and that may be a lot tougher than so some of the Listed or Group 3 contest even.
The widest draw wasn’t a help for Moracana who was slowly away, perhaps by design. She settled in rear, trailing, and having a lot to do turning for home. She made good progress but behind a wall of horses and repeatedly short of room, until switched to the wide outside inside the final furlong for a strong finish.
She obviously stays strongly, could move up in trip, but perhaps 12 furlongs with a lot of pace are ideal. She could land another of these big handicaps with a better draw, but also up to Listed level and not out of it in a Group 3 possibly.
The “rating horse” won. Maybe Pyledriver isn’t quite the old force anymore but he’s still very good after his long absence. The form looks strong on speed ratings and the runner-up enhanced his credentials significantly in my view.
West Wind Blows took over the lead after the first furlong and from there on set a red hot pace for the first half of the race, especially his third furlong was super hot, and possibly cost him in the finish.
He was slightly hampered by the winner in the closing stages, but in truth had little more to give in the home straight. This should be good form, he ran to a super 103 speed rating, confirming the huge impression he made at Longchamp prior, where he ran to 105.
He gets the trip, just. Over 10 furlongs where he can dominate he’s probably even more dangerous. The Eclipse is an option, possibly even a race like the Irish Champion Stakes could be of real interest.
Albasheer made up a gigantic amount of ground from last position 2f out to finish like a train in the final furlong. He was slowly into stride, despite first-time blinkers. A tricky sort, and hard to trust, althoug talented when he can put it all together.
Khanjar travelled strongly to the two furlong marker, but got carried over by the eventual winner and as a consequence was a bit short of room, lost his momentum and never found it back. He ran home nicely under an easy ride, though.
He caught the eye prior at Hamilton and looks ready to land a big one. But a tricky sort who can make life difficult for himself, as he was a bit slowly away here as well.
Jim Bolger’s only runner during the week was a significant eyecatcher for the fact that the lightly raced colt was still winless after four starts, but did well in hot company and was well backed on the day.
Cuban Dawn had a wide draw and didn’t really settle too well, as he seemed raw and green at the back of the field, at times outpaced, wandering around as well.
He made good progress from 3f out but found himself short of room over 1f out and didn’t get a hard time to run home eventually.
He colt is under the Australian ownership of the Waterhouse/Bolt yard, with the aim to get him over to Australia after this season, as they purchased him for about £300k and have advertised him as one with significant upside.
He was thrown into the deep end on debut in a listed race, when far from disgraced 4th behind Paddington. Placed in two more hot maiden races, his opening mark of 91 looks exploitable.
I think he could drop back to a mile when he has an entry during Irish Derby weekend, if there’s pace.
That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.
Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.
Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).
No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.
Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.
Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.
……..
6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.
I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.
He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.
Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.
Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.
The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.
Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.
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