Tag Archives: Handicap

Betting

Friday Selections: 7th April 2023

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First winner for the month on Wednesday: Bang On The Bell (9/2; 4/1 SP) won his race at Wolverhampton. Although, not quite in the manner I had anticipated as he blew the start and had do it the hard way. Thankfully, he held on and showed grit in the final furlong.

Dog Fox was withdrawn, unfortunately; after misbehaving in the stalls; there’ll be another day.

Sharon Macready refused to settle as they tried to drop her in. I could have seen that coming. She’s done it before. Like…. always. Even over the minimum trip. Backing her over 6 furlongs was simply a poor decision.

……….

3.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The “All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap” looks one of those uncompetitive-competitive handicaps. Plenty of runners, more or less similar ability, plenty of chances without any real standout and very few well-handicapped ones, if any.

Hence I’m prepared to give Emperor Spirit a solid shout at this, who seems overpriced in this field, for a myriad of reasons.

For one, it’s only two runs back that he seriously caught the eye at Newcastle:

He grabbed the lead promptly, set a red hot pace, but was pestered by a rival throughout, yet travelled strongly, before drifting across the track as he got really tired in the closing stages and was eventually overpowered by two horses from off the pace to finish third.

That was a strong performance and rock solid form, and his subsequent and most recent run doesn’t distract from it in my view – he was well beaten when last seen but that was a hot 5 furlong sprint on his debut for a new yard. No doubt the minimum trip is too sharp.

He ran pretty well all winter, though; especially over this course and distance in early December off 5lb higher than he’s currently rated, going off the 15/8 favourite, only beaten late in the day – doing so with cheek pieces fitted, which are on here again after an absence recently.

Subsequent form did suggest he ran not far below that level of form; although he’s a horse who finds it tough to get his head in front, hence he has fallen ever so slightly down to a 85 mark now.

He ran to higher speed ratings in the past, so there is an argument to be made that he’s weighted to win.

The race may develop to his advantage: he could establish an easy lead and good early rhythm and subsequently tough to peg back for a third career victory. He’s got the benefit of the #1 draw and there’s not too much pace pressure especially as other prominent horses are wider drawn.

10pts win – Emperor Spirit @ 11/1

…….

3.25 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

On the basis of ground, trip and handicap mark one can rule out more than half the field. Gastronomy seems the default favourite given his unexposed profile for strong connections, but is clearly poor value given the short price with questions to answers on ground and trip.

Nonetheless, the one I have an eye on is the 5-yeaer-old mare Reach, who could be quite well handicapped here.

She’s one I flagged in the Handicappers To Follow piece, although I didn’t expect to find such an ideal opportunity so soon after publishing the list.

Reach is very lightly raced for her age. She created a strong impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, especially with cut in the ground.

I’ve got little doubts about her race fitness. I expect her to be ready to go. Connections couldn’t have hoped for a better race to kick-off the season.

10pts win – Reach @ 15/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: Older Handicappers

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Second part of a series that tries to pick out intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Age Of Sail
4-yo gelding / Garry Moore / Frankel – Concordia

Caught the eye on all his last three starts on the flat in 2022. Doesn’t do things in a rush but has been knocking on the door over 10-12 furlongs last season.

Perhaps would benefit from cut in the ground. Deep ground over 10 furlongs interesting, but can see him move all the way up to 2 miles as well. Plenty of stamina and soft ground form in the pedigree.

Tried hurdling with varying degree of success over the winter. If he returns to the flat now as a 4-year-old he could be ready to exploit his 76 OR in the right races.

Al Husn
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / Dubawi – Hadaatha

Unbeaten in three starts in 2022. Last two strong performances in Newmarket Handicaps. Impressive when last seen, travelling well, before becoming a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before finishing really strongly to win.

Still quite lightly raced and open to improvement. Deserves a chance in listed race but also must have a chance to stay beyond 10f given she settles better now and has the pedigree.

Alseeyerthere
5-yo mare / Steph Hollinshead /Al Kazeem – Magic Destiny

Only three career runs, now eligible for Handicaps, should be ready to exploit opening mark. Caught the eye the last two runs, although didn’t seem to get home over 7 furlongs.

Full-sister to two winners over 6- to 7 furlongs, generally on better to fast ground. She showed good early speed in her July race and was keen the last two times to suggest she may follow more closely the route of Al Simmo who is a 88 rated multiple winner over 6 furlongs.

Blue Daisy
4-yo filly / George Boughey / Teofilo – Balsamine

Showed glimmers of ability toward the end of last season. Especially encouraging the way she stayed on in her final run in 2022 when not getting the best of runs from the back of the field.

Seems a temperamental filly as the headgear combination suggests as well. Off a 60 OR she appeals if she moves up in trip, though. Especially with cut in the ground on turf would be an intriguing runner.

Caph Star
4-yo Colt / Roger Varian / Siyouni – Caskelena

Promising on debut when 3rd in a hot race, running to 71 speed rating. Seriously impressive at Kempton subsequently, producing a rapid acceleration.

Not seen since then. Cost £200k as a yearling. Has the pedigree to improve this year, especially if he moves up in trip. Obvious question mark over long absence, though.

Desert Glory
4-yo gelding / James Tate / Churchill – Polygon

Green and raw on both starts last year. Badly outpaced when last seen. Looks to hit the ground hard.

Was gelded in January. Cost £55k as a yearling. Family does well on softer ground and All-Weather. He looks one sure to appreciate a step up in trip as well. Looks likely to improve as a 4yo – if he returns.

Floral Splendour
4-yo filly / Ian Jardine / Farhh – Red Tulip

Lightly raced filly. Not disgraced in heavy ground in final start in 2022. Eyecatching on her penultimate start at Musselburgh, when heavily bumped early and a clear run denied in the home straight.

Looks open to progress, especially if she moves up to a mile, possibly beyond, on decent ground then.

Flagman
5-yo gelding / Deborah Faulkner / Kingman – Sense Of Joy

Promising performance in October at Kempton when he stayed on well. Badly outpaced in the home straight the next two times. Although, showed good early speed from the gate and travelled well.

Still lightly raced in interesting off 53 mark if he returns and moves up in distance, seems to be crying out for a trip. Full-sister won over 9 furlongs a Leopardstown maiden.

Invisible Friend
4-yo filly / Kevin Ryan / Sea The Stars – Stealth Missile

Lightly raced full-sister to smart handicapper Irish Legend. Fetched €160k as a foal. Won well on only second career outing despite showing serious signs of greenness, as she did on debut as well. Hasn’t been seen since August, though.

The form doesn’t amount to much as she only had three rivals to beat and the runner-up is rated 52. The fact she kicking clear nicely at a track seemingly she doesn’t enjoy, over a trip probably sharp enough, is encouraging.

The full-sister needed time as well and progressed nicely as a 4-year-old, stayed 10 furlongs+, and was potent on the All-Weather.

Majestic Fighter
4-yo gelding / H&R Charlton / Teofilo – Majestic Manner

Ran a huge race when last seen at Kempton after going wide all the way finishing very strongly. Ran a number of strong efforts in handicaps throughout the year.

Could have more to offer as a 4yo as he moves up in trip. Gives the impression he can get further than a mile, and has a chance on pedigree. Ran to an 80 speed rating, which means any improvement will see him become suddenly quite well-handicapped, potentially.

Prakasa
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / The Gurkha – Khor Sheed

Showed her inexperience in all three starts. Won well at Kempton at the second time of asking, though. Form isn’t worth much but she showed she doesn’t lack a change of gear. Travelled strongly dropped to a mile but not good enough on the day when last seen.

Looks open to plenty of progress if moving up to 10 furlongs. Family stays well. Opening mark of 78 looks potentially lenient.

Rampage
4-yo gelding / TG McCourt / New Bay – Hall Hee

Improved dramatically for his first Handicap start in July at Thirsk over a mile. Arguably unlucky to be beaten by tiny margin and the way the race panned out.

Was sold for £1,000 subsequently, after another encouraging run at Newcastle as he was up there for long time and possibly needed the run then. Also may find a mile too sharp.

Moved to Ireland in the meantime and travelled really well for a long time in a Handicap last week. Should have more to offer up in trip, especially of a potentially lenient mark. Dam’s offspring tends to improve over 10f, and runs well on the All-Weather.

Reach
5-yo mare / M&D Easterby / Sea The Stars – Ameliorate

Very lightly raced for her age. She created a good impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, possibly with cut in the ground.

Vazire
4-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Frankel – Aricia

Lightly raced filly who improved nicely last year. Stepped up to middle distance without a problem at Chester after giving impression she would enjoy a trip. She won really well when last seen the way she travelled and kicked on.

The Chester form is strong and ties in well with the improve she showed from the previously quite eyecatching Sandown performance.

Every chance she can improve as a 4-year-old over middle-distance. Family tends to stay well, therefore even 12 furlongs not out of question. A mark off 82 could underestimate her early in the season – if she’s still in training, as she wasn’t seen since last June.

Wanees
4-yo gelding / Charles Hills / Le Havre – Waldnah

Was a super progressive three-year-old in 2022. Impressive the way he won when last seen at Haydock. Did it easily after pulling early on. Tends to be quite keen, but should stay 10 furlongs on pedigree if he can settle.

Every chance for further improvement as a 4-year-old and gelding. Revised handicap mark gives him plenty of options in hot handicaps or potentially moving up to lower graded level in the early parts of the season.

The Lincoln run last month can be excused given the ground was way too soft for him. But the run may help him to be a backable price next time.

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 5th April 2023

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4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In an ideal world Bang On The Bell would race off his soon to be revised mark, or even a couple of pounds lower, but I feel even off 71 he’s got a fine chance to win in this race against beatable opposition, especially with the race possibly to pan out in his favour.

I don’t judge him harshly on the way he dropped away last time he was seen. That day he had to overcame the widest draw – which he did – but was then way too keen in the first half of the race over 6 furlongs that was a stretch.

He’s better judged on his penultimate run over this course and distance as he encounters it here, when once again he enjoyed a perfect and quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders right before the field entered the turn.

He pushed a strong pace as part of trio, before getting quite tired in the home straight once again. That looks good form, and was an improvement on his comeback run prior.

In my view the last two runs warrant an upgrade. In that light, it’s clear he’ll enjoy the return to the minimum trip, this time without the disadvantage of a wide draw.

There’s only one other true pace horse in this small field, so it won’t be any hassle to get to the front. It should help that the other possible pace setter, Glorious Charmer – who doesn’t seem well handicapped now – is going to be there to help push a good pace,.

This scenario in turn may help Bang On The Bell to relax a bit better and then enjoy possibly the run of the race turning for home. He ran to a 72 speed rating back in August over this C&D, and 70 in December over 5f at Chelmsford – therefore he’s clearly capable to run to the level required to win here.

10pts win – Bang On The Bell @ 9/2

……

4.55 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

A minefield of unknowns but there is no question Dog Fox is the most intriguing one here. He’s one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark.

This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.

He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.

An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers.

10pts win – Dog Fox @ 3/1

……

5.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Am I really prepared to follow Sharon Macready over the cliff? I certainly am! This filly is hugely frustrating but no doubt has some talent and is well handicapped if she can finally relax a bit better. She’s ready to win, sooner rather than later.

Going up in trip does seem counterintuitive. But I do believe the trip doesn’t really matter. She stays the distance as she is a proven distance winner and ‘all’ it takes is her to relax in the early parts a bit better. Without dropping her head she won’t get home even over three furlongs.

I can make excuses for her recent run at Southwell. It was as strange race, although one that looks strong the way the form worked out. Sharon Macready had an award start, also bumped rival, was a huge price on the day and never looked like the same enthusiastic individual she did prior.

I liked those three earlier runs this year – she showed often blistering early speed but made life difficult for herself. She is now down to a 60 rating – clearly she is better than that, also given her full-sister has multiple wins at 60+ to her name,

The race could work out well from a pace scenario. The low draw will help her to get to the front. She may enjoy an easy enough lead. She may hard to peg back over this course and distance if she finds a good rhythm.

10pts win – Sharon Macready @ 5/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: 3-year-old Handicappers

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First part of a series that tries to pick out a number of intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Ana Emaraaty
3-yo gelding / Owen Burrows / Awtaad – Sundus

Very green on debut and sole start in August. Gelded in the meantime. Will be interesting once in Handicap company over 10 furlongs.

Looks likely to enjoy softish conditions, appears to have quite a high knee action. Dam’s offspring tends to perform best with cut in the ground, so does Awtaad’s offspring (3yo Handicappers).

Amleto
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Sea The Stars – Holy Moon

Green on debut, improved effort in strong Kempton race subsequently, travelled quite nicely. Big drifter in the betting on both occasions.

Full-brother to Sea Of Class. Retains a Derby entry but unlikely to turn out that good now. Nonetheless, bound to improve dramatically as 3-year-old compared to what he showed last season, especially if he goes up in trip.

Alhambra Palace
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Le Havre – Lady Francesca

Slowly into stride in both career runs. Bit unlucky on debut, but didn’t get hard ride after becoming short of room over 2f out in heavy going. Finished well under easy ride at Kempton.

Was a £58k foal, a year later sold for £230k as a yearling. Related to some good winners and has pedigree to do well on turf as well as All-Weather, most likely seen to best effect once up in trip as a half-brother to Northumberland Plate 4th place finisher.

As a son of Le Havre he will enjoy races with emphasis on stamina. Needs one more run to qualify for a handicap mark.

Barrier
3-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Australia – Pure Fantasy

Temperamental, had issues out of the gate on both career runs. Final 2022 performance can be upgraded when unlucky in the home straight.

One to keep an eye out for the opening mark, very much depends on final qualifying start. A mark in the 70’s or lower would be interesting as she steps up in trip. Will likely need plenty of cut in the ground for anything below longer trips.

Australia’s record with 3yo fillies is strong; generally with 3yo’s in lower grade handicaps on stiff tracks, with cut in the ground is noteworthy and ties in nicely with the overall profile of the filly.

Birchmore Len
3-yo gelding / Michael Madgwick / Sixties Icon – Steel Free

Showed absolutely nothing in three runs as a juvenile. Opening mark of 61 is harsh on that basis.

Will only show his true colours once hew moves significantly up in trip, most likely 12 furlongs. Full-brother to modest staying handicapper Steel An Icon. Trainer knows this family well having trained the dam and some offspring.

Chinthurst
3-yo gelding / Jim Boyle / Nathanial – Sonnetation

Improved markedly on Handicap debut at Brighton. Found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he starts the season only a pound higher than that day, (OR 55) now as a gelding.

Even more so, as a son of Nathanial you can be almost certain he will improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip. Could be seriously well handicapped.

Dog Fox
3-yo gelding / Ed Dunlop / Cityscape – Dragonera

Showed nothing in three runs over trips that were clearly on the sharp side. Will improve for Handicaps and going up in trip. Majority of dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs.

There is also excellent All-Weather form in the pedigree. An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

Elterwater
3-yo filly / D & C Kubler / Camelot – Acquainted

Showed signs of improvement on Handicap debut when last seen in October when also quite well backed. Travelled nicely but didn’t have pace to match in the closing stages over 7 furlongs.

Is a full-sister to a smart Aussie performer over 1m to 10f who improved nicely in her days as a 3yo. She looked quite big last year and is possibly one to be most interested in Spring.

Should improve as she moved up to a mile in Handicap company; 10 furlongs shouldn’t be an issue either. New seasons OR of 59 looks ready to be exploited.

Eyetrap
3-yo colt / Jane Chapple-Hyam / Ulysses – Miss Dashwood

Excellent run in third place on final run in 2022 behind very smart winner. Opening mark could be lenient judged on this final run if he moves up in trip.

Vast majority of dam’s offspring improved with age and trip, and stayed 10 furlongs plus.

Folk Star
3-yo filly / David Simcock / Le Havre – Full Opera

Two lovely runs of educational matter in October 2022. Looked much better than bare results. Never asked a question, finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth. Will need one more run to qualify for a mark.

May foal. Plenty of scope to improve, especially as she goes up in trip. A stiff mile could be ideal before moving up further. Beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time.

Le Have offspring improves with age. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Especially potent over 1 mile to 10 furlongs from July on. Ideally stiff or galloping tracks not on a straight track.

Gold Aura
3-yo filly / Richard Hughes / Golden Horn – Lady Haidi

Showed promise in three starts as a juvenile over 7 furlongs. Looks bound to improve for a step up in trip as there is tons of stamina on sire and dam side. Could possibly enjoy the All-Weather, too.

Opening mark of 72 looks more than fair, given her solid juvenile form. Up in trip she could turn out to be well handicapped.

Golden Horn offspring tend to improve dramatically as they step up in trip. His record with fillies is strong.

Galilaeus
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Galileo – Madame Chiang

Unremarkable three runs as a juvenile on the surface of the form. Finished at the back of the field in the Eyetrap race. Badly outpaced but finished seriously well in the final furlong.

Cost 200k as a yearling and had a Derby entry. Gelded in the meantime. Clearly will need to go up in trip to show his best form. Opening mark could be quite lenient as he’s very well bred.

Lady Rascal
3-yo filly / George Boughey / Nathanial – Theladyinquestion

Solid debut and sole run as a juvenile over inadequate trip. Most likely won’t show true colours before she steps up significantly in trip. Full-sister to smart stayer Nate The Great.

Fetched £270k as a yearling back in 2021. Could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper once she had three qualifying runs.

Made seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in 9.5f maiden. Encouraging effort without ever threatening.

Mudskipper
3-yo colt / David Menuisier / Le Havre – Arendelle

Ran incredibly well in two of three runs as a juvenile, both placed performances can be marked up and look possibly strong form, judged through the winners.

Will be interesting as he goes up in trip. By Le Havre out of a Camelot mare, 10 furlongs will suit really well. Opening mark not a giveaway but with improvement to come as a 3-year-old could have something in hand.

Tribal Master
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Mastercraftsman – Snoqualmie Star

Gelded before debut run, showed nothing in two starts last year, but 7f way too short. Is a full-brother to smart stayer Tribal Craft (and modest staying handicapper).

Should get a low enough opening mark post qualifying run that could be exploited once he moves up significantly in trip.

Betting

Monday Selections: 3rd April 2023

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It wasn’t the start I hoped for the new flat season: King’s Lynn badly squeezed early on, his race was basically done there and then. Didn’t get the clearest of runs until the race was over either… one to mark up and keep in the tracker.

Anyway, the flat kicks into gear properly this week. It’s going to be a few busy weeks and months ahead… But before that I’ve done the usual house keeping, and updated the P&L sheet for March here, including SPs now.

Always a bit easier to do this work if the month turned out to be a green one… can do with a few more of them, of course.

I’m heading to the sand for Monday’s selection, though. A familiar name is back there over her ideal course and distance….

……..

5.15 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Sir Rodneyredblood remains a strong chance even under a penalty, having shown tremendous form lately. I backed him myself when he won over the minimum trip at Chelmsford last month.

Nonetheless, he’s now rated very much in range of what requires best effort for him to overcome these days, in a hot race, with a wider than ideal draw and pace pressure likely to be applied.

Bobby On The beat and Porfin have fair shouts on their winter form, but Come On Girl is the one I’m most interested in, given it was back in January that she caught the eye in no uncertain terms.

That day she wasn’t advantaged by the way the race developed, yet she finished much the fastest in the home straight despite turning wider than ideal.

She followed up with another massive run, then over 7 furlongs, when only caught in the final half furlong, after doing too much too soon.

Subsequently out of her depth in class 4 when last seen, she’s now back in her ideal grade, class 6; 0-65, over 6 furlongs.

Pace looks guaranteed, her #4 draw gives Oisin Murphy in the saddle plenty of options; his booking seems a clear indicator that connections expect her to run well.

She was in fine form all winter, ran to 59 and 60 speed ratings during this All-Weather season and looks ripe for a 5th course and distance victory.

10pts win – Come On Girl @ 5/1

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 16th March 2023

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6.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I loved the return off 139 days from Saisons D’Or at Newcastle two weeks ago. He travelled well for a long time and seemed the one going best with less than 1.5 furlongs to go, ready to win the race. He fell away in the final furlong, though.

He ran to a good 59 speed rating, not too far off his current handicap mark. There is every reason to believe he can improve for the run. His spring form is usually really strong, he tends to run really well in the first two-three runs after a winter break.

Now an eight-year-old he isn’t getting any younger, but he’s fallen to a really good mark as he also has dropped into class 6.

This doesn’t look a strong race, hence I think the #7 draw may not be too much an issue to overcome. The yard tends to avoid this track with fancied runners at all, though. That’s a concern.

10pts win – Saisons D’Or @ 11.5/1

…….

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Plenty of unknowns here but one wo is most likely to improve significantly from his three starts as a juvenile is Get Stuck In.

He caught my eye in his final two runs last year; at Kempton and then Newmarket, he ran with tons of credit in pretty hot contests. What I loved most was the attitude he showed on those occasions.

Not only did he look straightforward enough, but also went forward, and tried really hard when challenged heavily in the closing stages.

Going up in trip to a mile can only be a positive, given his pedigree. He’s been gelded, which in itself may bring out additional improvement.

What gives me plenty of hope that this lad is ready to roll is the fact Mark/Charlie Johnston’s 4-year-olds have an excellent record on their reappearance off a break on the All-Weather.

Further to this, the pace in this race could be a muddy. But he likes to go forward, most likely, and could enjoy an uncontested lead. He may be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Get Stuck In @ 7/2

…….

8.20 Dundalk: 47-70 Handicap, 1m

Leabaland must be one of the unluckiest horses on Dundalk circuit given this winter. He’s often ran a lot better than bare form would read; one who definitely seems to find the trouble more often than not, has also been unfortunate with wide draws.

Each of his last five runs since he entered my radar in mid-October produced their own drama, and it wasn’t different when last seen in February over this course and distance as he just couldn’t get that the clear run, from entering the home straight until it was game over.

He looks clearly capable of his slightly revised mark of 60. Especially this time he enjoys a low draw, which will be a huge advantage. He’s a solid starter, and can just move forward, see how things fall, but in any case should be in a position to get a clear run this time.

There shouldn’t be any excuses this time. If he’s good enough this time is the day…. I think he’s good enough; added bonus having Seamie Heffernan in the saddle, who rode Leabaland to his last victory, ten month ago.

Hence I think these current prices are total bonkers. Of course, if things look too good to be true, often they aren’t true. We’ll find out tomorrow night.

10pts win – Leabaland @ 17/2

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday Selections: 14th March 2023

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Candy Warhol was seriously well backed on Monday, sadly she refused to settle and was keen for the majority of the race. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away.

Perhaps she needs some headgear. I wouldn’t lose hope quite yet and may be prepared to give her another chance next time.

All eyes will be on Cheltenham on Tuesday. I’ll settle in front of the TV with a good coffee and enjoy the races. But won’t be getting involved from a betting perspective.

Yes, I have a few fancies. But ultimately nothing strong enough to suggest it would be a good bet. My monetary interest will be riding on the Southwell Tapeta, instead.

…….

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

With a top amateur in the saddle Biplane looks ominous off a 62 mark. Judged on his very best effort over this C/D last summer he’s theoretically the one to beat. But he’s only ever ran once in 24 career runs to that level of form.

He will have to be a that level here, though, because I reckon the lightly raced Streetscape could have a few pounds in hand after a highly promising comeback- and first Handicap run last time out at Newcastle.

He moved forward to track the early pace until he started to challenge the leaders from over 2 furlongs out. He was gutsy right to the line but beaten by winner and second from the rear of the field in the end.

I thought he showed great attitude there, as he settled well early on and looked like trying seriously hard in the closing stages to keep the challengers at bay.

The race finished in a sprint, which can’t have been to his advantage, I believe, as he should stay a bit further on pedigree.

For now a mile should be fine. This is only going to be his 5th career-run and from his low draw I expect him to be a bit more aggressive this time to ensure it’s a solid gallop that will suit him.

The 3lb claim of Alice Keighley should be solid value. She usually sits on good chances, and posts a seriously strong record especially for this yard.

With that in mind, this lad should have a cracking chance and too much to offer of his rivals in this race.

10pts win – Streetscape @ 5/2

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hot race. Autumn Angel has probably been leniently treated by the handicapper for her latest course and distance success. The issue I see: she will need a bit of luck and a clear run to catch those who inevitably will be any number of lengths in front as they turn for home.

Papa Cocktail is obviously of huge interest to me. A horse I am tracking since summer last year; he caught the eye once again in dramatic fashion last time; he’s almost certainly seriously well-handicapped. But I want him over 7 furlongs. He’s not one to trust and this shorter trip isn’t his best.

Putting any faith into a 15-race maiden may not be the wisest move. But Whiteandblue was a huge eyecatcher last time out as well, and I couldn’t be happier seeing her over 6 furlongs round a bend.

Last time at Newcastle she moved quickly forward and set a red hot pace – they went faster over the first half than the class 4 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card. She continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong but eventually was overwhelmed.

A huge run. And a career best speed rating – she had enough time to recover from the effort, and has been left untouched by the handicapper. The winner of that race went on to give the form a strong look having won subsequently again.

Since having changed yards her form has gradually improved and it looks like the penny may have dropped.

From the #6 draw she won’t have much trouble getting to the lead, or at least following it closely. Ireland’s Eye will move forward as well, most likely. I think this can only hep her to settle, having a bit of company early on.

Of course there is a chance that they go too hard once again. But I hope the turn will slow them down that little bit more than it was possibly at the straight Newcastle last time.

10pts win – Whiteandblue @ 6/1

Betting

All-Weather Monday Selections: 13th March 2023

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8.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

The race evolves around Letmelivemylife, who won at Chelmsford in a photo eleven days ago. He’s only 2lb higher and has a solid chance to add to his 100% course and distance record. He’s quite a short price, though. Too short? Probably fairly priced, more so.

In truth, there isn’t much to take him on with, in this field. But the one who does stand out is lightly raced Candy Warhol. He caught the eye at Southwell on his Handicap debut a fortnight ago.

Restrained from the widest draw, he travelled in rear. Unusual tactics, given he was up with the pace in most of his four career runs before. He made some good progress from over 3f out as the pace increased in a slowly run contest. But as he was kept in a pocket with little room to manoeuvre, no matter which way he turned; until it was too late, he never got a real chance.

It fair to assume that with a clear run he probably goes much closer in tat class 4 Handicap, to finish in an amongst to some higher rated rivals.

He ran noteworthy a number of times before as well. On his comeback run after 230 days off the track, he travelled strongly – too strongly early on – here at Wolverhampton. He was able to kick on from 3 furlongs out, but eventually faded. Perhaps he needed the run, but here is also the possibility that he doesn’t stay 9.5f.

He can be a bit keen early on and showed solid early speed over 7 furlongs prior, in 2022; especially his Chester run looks strong.

Therefore I feel the drop to 7 furlongs can suit. He has shown to have early pace and also cruising speed over that sort of trip. Especially as there is solid pace expected here, which he should be able to track, following the leader(s) closely, could be in his favour, as he may not want this to turn into a sprint.

He also drops into an easier race here – against this opposition his 74 handicap mark gives him a great opportunity, Any natural improvement will see him go close. With the race possibly set up to suit he looks certainly overpriced.

10pts win – Candy Warhol @ 11/2

………

I can’t ignore the elephant in the room: Cheltenham looms large. Tuesday we’re off to the week that defines each jumps racing season. Obviously I am more a flat man. Nonetheless, I still do enjoy the top class Championship races immensely. I am a racing fan, first and foremost.

Betting wise the festival has been largely kind to me over the last number of years. Although, I have greatly reduced my involvement. That resulted in a tremendous 5 winners from only 9 selections last year…. it’s probably unfair to expect the same this time. I’ll keep the purse largely closed this week….

Nonetheless, one bet that stands out to me, that I want to get off the chest right now, before the price invariably collapses on the day:

Galvin in the Cross-Country Chase on Wednesday!

This race has been a lucky one for me over the years. I firmly hope to pick the winner once again.

2/1 is easily obtainable right now. Which strikes me as overly generous. Gordon Elliot has hardly made a secret of how highly he rates Galvin’s chances here. He schooled him extensively over the Cross-Country fences.

And form wise – although it doesn’t always count for much in this division – Galvin is obviously the class act in this field. Last years Gold Cup 4th, would not look out of place in the “big one” on Friday, once again.

I backed Delta Work last year, and surely he’s going to be the main danger. Obviously, any rain will be to his advantage. But he’s probably not quite as classy – not these days – as stable mate Galvin.

The betting has it in the wrong order in my view. It’s not often that I do get involved in these short prices. It’s the absolute pain threshold for me. I simply think 2/1 is such tremendous value; no doubt, come Wednesday, he’ll be 6/4 and lower, possibly go off the favourite.

Betting

All-Weather Saturday Selections: 11th March 2023

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12.55 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Lady Nagin drops down to class 6 again after a seriously impressive effort at Southwell over 6 furlongs three weeks ago. She also tries the minimum trip for only the second time in her career on what will be her 2cond handicap run also.

When last seen she pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend and as a consequence wasted a lot of energy, as she never really settled properly, too.

Yet she showed a really impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

It’s hard to know where her ceiling is. She won two back a maiden over 6 furlongs at Southwell in really nice style from the front. Having showed plenty of early speed in her races, I doubt the minimum trip will pose any real issue.

from a low draw she should be able to move forward and track the likely front-runners closely in third or fourth place. They should go a good clip which may help her to settle better, and if they go too hard, she clearly has the stamina for further as well.

10pts win – Lady Nagin @ 7/1

……….

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Sir Rodneyredblood is a course and distance specialist with a 7-3-2 record who caught the eye last time out on his first run after a small break.

He showed excellent early speed, even though was also helped by a low draw, led the field for home by setting a strong pace in the 6 furlongs contest. He tried hard but eventually faded from 1f out.

Five or six furlongs doesn’t make too much of a difference to him, but the minimum trip at this track is clearly his preferred course and distance.

He drops ever so slightly in grade as he does in trip, and this will be easier. He has to overcome the #6 draw, though should be able to do so given the pace map for the race.

With that in mind, he could potentially dominate this contest from the front, which will be an advantage over this C & D. I have no doubt he will come on for the lto run and can bring his form back to the level shown in autumn.

The level of form he ran to then is at a different level to the majority of rivals in this field. He ran to solid speed ratings then, and was only a neck beaten off a 65 mark in a better race.

He obviously had a lot of racing under his belt but still shows enough enthusiasm and early speed to think off 62 against 0-60 opposition over his preferred course and distance he must be a huge runner.

Obviously, Proclivity and Mustaffiz have been eyecatchers in the past, too. There are both with a chance here, though, I have come to the conclusion that their limitations have been exposed off their current ratings.

10pts win – Sir Rodneyredblood @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th March 2023

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1.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

A really poor 0-52 Handicap of the lowest grade. This could be an excellent opportunity for veteran Dapper Man to enjoy a perfect race from the #1 draw.

He seemed to hit some good form lately, especially when last seen over the straight five at Southwell.

There he tracked the pace and the eventual winner early on, got outpaced halfway through, before he had to switch due to traffic problems. He got going again and ran on really well against the unfavourable stands’ side rail.

In my view he was far from disgraced in his last four runs since return to the All-Weather. That is backed up by speed ratings as he ran to 50 last time out and 52 four runs back, suggesting he is at a level that should give him a good chance in this field.

I feel he may enjoy the return to race around a bend over the minimum trip, especially this course and distance where has a 2-1-1 record.

From the #1 draw he should get to the lead without an issue, and has then the option to either go for it or taking the lead of the potential pace pressure that will have to do a lot from outside draws to get there, though.

10pts win – Dapper Man @ 9/2

………

6.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

It’s interesting that Gobi Sunset drops back in trip to 6 furlongs. Even though possibly more thought of as a 7 furlongs specialist, two of his three career wins came over this trip for a 7-2-2 record.

Gobi Sunset’s career-best speed rating also was achieved over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather. So the drop in trip is as intriguing as it makes sense.

He will find this class easier as well. There is a chance that 0-95 and 0-85 level is a little bit too hot form him. Nonetheless, he ran with a lot of credit in the three runs since returning from a 260 day break.

He only tired late after attempting to make all on his reappearance at Wolverhampton, and I was really impressed how easily he finished last time out, posting the fastest final furlong split.

The inexperienced 7lb claimer is a question mark. On the other hand, Archie Young looked pretty solid in the sole ride he had recently.

The low draw suits to move forward if reverted back to attacking tactics. He was perhaps a little slow away, but not helped by a rival either, and perhaps it was also somewhat by design, when restrained in rear last time out.

There is plenty of pace here. I feel this can suit. If this is a test of stamina his extra bit of 7 furlongs stamina will be an asset late in the race.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/1

………

8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I loved Eastern Star’s gutsy performance at this venue last week. The idiosyncrasies of the British handicapping system have her race off 2lb lower here over a better trip, despite finishing a fine runner-up.

Last week she grabbed the lead and set seriously hot pace early on. As a consequence she had the field on the stretch, still going well turning for home. From 2 furlongs out she came severely under pressure but it was impressive how she pulled out more and fought back gamely.

A mile clearly stretches her. She also hasn’t won on the All-Weather or 7 furlongs yet in her long career, but I think she stays 7 furlongs, and has two placed efforts from two tries over this course and distance, including her career-best speed rating of 56, which came exactly 12 days ago to this day in exactly the same type of race over this C&D.

Her most recent effort clearly shows she is in serious form as well. Having the opportunity to race off 46 this one time, 2lb lower than lto, and where her mark is going back to again after this, in a very winnable contest, she looks to have a prime chance for a first victory on the sand.

10pts win – Eastern Star @ 9/2