Jumby is out out and that opens up this race. I remain somewhat intrigued by Mostabshir, blinkers fitted, down in trip today.
If the ground dries out it’s going to help him quite a lot. I could see him ridden quite prominently and if this turns out to be a muddling affair he’s got potentially the gears. But it’s hard to be excited after his last two runs, truth told, and I want to see some spark first.
The most solid and proven option should be Pogo, though. He was a massive eye-catcher in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and ran pretty well in the Criterion Stakes last months.
Possibly he did a little bit too much in the middle part of the race and it may have been a benefit to race on the far side as well. It was a strong run, nonetheless, and he confirmed the promise shown at Royal Ascot.
After a poor time in Dubai, the Queen Anne was a significant return to form – a performance that warranted serious upgrading.
He was most likely ridden with the aim to preserve his limited stamina over the stiff Ascot mile there and had too much to do from the rear of the field.
Yet, the way he made serious progress on the far side, quickening into the fastest part of the race, away from the pace as well, was seriously impressive.
He couldn’t keep up the effort over the stiff final furlong but then he’s a 7 furlongs specialist. The more the ground hopefully dries out today the better for him, of course.
Ideal Guest was a winner on Wednesday – thankfully, finally, one that did what was expected. There’ve been some lean weeks recently. As the gelding romped home at 5/1 SP, half the price I got in the morning, it brought solace to my beaten up betting soul.
🥇 Fantastic to have Mikkel ride a winner for us! His first for us and many more to come we’ve no doubt! Thanks for letting him be a part of our team 1 morning a week @FellowesRacing! pic.twitter.com/l5JZufTE6A
— George Margarson Racing (@MargarsonRacing) August 16, 2023
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4.00 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
This looks a seriously competitive race for this class and track and this time of the year. Even more so as I’ve got four eyecatchers lining up also.
Nonetheless, the one who does stand out as potentially enjoying this easier grade is 3-year-old gelding Paddy’s Day.
He ran in better grade the last few times, and did so without disgracing himself. In fact, he caught the eye, a number of times for various reasons.
His last two runs especially suggested he’s in pretty good form, albeit finding the opposition a bit too good, still.
Last time at Haydock I also felt Paddy’s Day wasn’t ideally drawn on the far side because race and pace developed away from him to the most part.
He was going okay for a long time, though, and in fact ran the fasted mid-section, yet when it mattered most he struggled to get a clean run through due to horses shifting right in front of him in the closing stages multiple times.
It’s debatable how much of a difference that made as he may have been done by that time anyway, but at the very least he was a theoretical chance to finish closer denied.
Paddy’s Day drops down to 75 and could be dangerous in this easier race, given he showed some promise in the past, including a class 5 Lingfield win off his current mark back in March.
On the negative side, he’s yet to run a speed rating that suggests he’s better than class 5 and the #1 can bring its own dangers.
I guess I’m in a world of pain from a betting perspective, once again. Feels like forever, over the last few months. I’ll take it. It’ll change, of course, as it always does.
Greatgardian 10/11. Golden Rainbow 9/10. The latter one another “masterclass” by Paul Mulrennan. I said it in my preview there’s every chance with this man on board at this track to see the scenario play out exactly as it did.
I’d love to see the stats for jockeys who ride horses that start slowly or awkwardly. PM would surely be top of the list. Especially on the All-Weather.
I can’t catch the man on a going day, that’s for sure. I can’t complain, I knew what I get into. Still annoying, especially on a long losing run, when you back the non-trier at these prices. It is what it is. Move on, hopefully today turns out to be a better one.
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5.15 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Ideal Guest could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead as the pace map suggests it could materialise for the 4-year-old gelding here today.
He ran extremely well the last two times at this track over 6 and 7 furlongs. I liked his penultimate CD effort especially:
That day he led the field but was always closely followed. Put under severe pressure from 2f out, nonetheless he kept going and fought back gamely before surrendering late.
Followed up at the same venue with another strong front-running performance last week. Ideal Guest is clearly in good form, on a dangerous mark especially over 7f on decent ground in a race he could dominate from the front.
He’ll meet those conditions today and that makes me ignore his otherwise poor overall course (& distance) record at Yarmouth – 0/10, but it’s clear the track isn’t really a problem, as those last runs proved.
He’s best at Brighton, where he got an entry next week. There’s every chance he can go back to back, down to a mark of 60, that’s 2- and 10lb below his last two winning marks from last years summer. His best speed rating of 65 also gives him a significant chance, as I believe he isn’t far of that level right now.
There is little competition for the lead in this field. Ideal Guest may get away with a bit of an advantage that could be difficult to peg back wit the 7ln claim of Mikkel Mortensen another bonus.
I hoped for a better return to the ‘racing life’. 4 from 8 placed last week, some desperately close to win, but they didn’t get over the line, literally.
My current losing record stretches on for quite a while once again. This really is the most bizarre year of my “betting career”. Never had such dramatic swings before.
Not sure whether I’m changing or the game’s changing or whether this is normal variance that I was simply ‘lucky’ to avoid in such crassness in the past.
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6.45 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f
This looks an ideal opportunity for Greatgadian who was not disgraced over a mile when not getting the rub of the green last time at Ascot and who has steadily dropped in the ratings despite some good runs this year off much higher.
He caught my eye for the first time in April in the Lincoln after he enjoyed a pretty decent winter on the All-Weather. The subsequent Nottingham run is one I also rated highly, although two lesser efforts in between raise some questions.
On the other hand, a return to 10 furlongs will surely suit, so is the return to Chelmsford. Greatgadian is a dual course and distance winner.
He ran well earlier this year off 99 over this CD when third, only a lengths beaten, and you would hope with the good #2 draw to go from today, off 90, he should be hard to beat, if everything is right.
10pts win – Greatgadian @ 6/1
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9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Golden Rainbow showed a return to form at Weatherby the last time after a wind operation where he ran seriously well over 5.5f in a hot contest.
He tracked the pace closely in second place and pressed he leader from over 2f out. Possibly ahead at final furlong marker, eventually horses from further back got the better of him.
He drops in class and ever so slightly down to the minimum trip on the All-Weather, which should be his optimum. His AW record reads 9-2-3 and even better in Handicaps.
He’s a course and distance winner and has no issue with the stiff finish at Newcastle over this trip. He even runs well over 6 furlongs here. There is plenty of pace on, so that should suit and make it a fair race. He’s got early speed, shouldn’t be too far away and well placed when the race probably develops toward the centre.
That hopefully ensures that the low draw isn’t that big a negative as it can be over this CD sometimes.
Obviously with this jockey on board, at this track, you don’t always know whether you get a ‘real’ effort. I’ll trust this looks an ideal opportunity to score, though.
3.26 Deauville: Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, 1m
Wow, what a hot race. Probably the deepest Group 1 of the season, so far? The best of the Classic generation versus the best of the older milers. Exciting!
Twelve months ago the filly Inspiral won the race in a dramatic finish with a career-best performance. She’s here again and tries to defend her title. She has to put a shocking run in the Sussex Stakes behind, though.
If we forgive her the Goodwood run, which may have been simply down to the ground, her only other start this season came in the Queen Anne and was a massive given the circumstances.
The problem is: Deauville is likely to ride quite soft today. Softer than last year, and the fact remains Inspiral does her best work on a sounder surface. She may struggle in these conditions. And especially against some serious opposition, who do relish soft ground.
Good Guess ran to a 104 speed rating when he landed the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat recently. That’s brilliant form, but I doubt he gets home well enough against top-class opposition over a mile.
French Guineas winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi drops back to a mile after a gallant effort in the French Derby. He was caught up behind a wall of horses at the wrong time.
If he can take another step forward, which he has to in this field, he’s right in the mix. The fact he stayed on so strongly, makes me wonder whether a drop to a mile is the right move, though.
Light Infantry ran two huge races back-to-back in Group 1 company lately. A consistent colt, who at his very best can feature.
On last years form he’s got an obvious chance, given his superb runner-up performance in this very race. The ground doesn’t worry him and he should be competitive once again. Whether this seasons form is quite good enough remains to be seen, though.
His third place in the Queen Anne ties in with the winner of the Royal Ascot race, Triple Time. It was a massive career-best, somewhat unexpected for many, after 262 days off the track.
The talented son of Frankel showed promise earlier in his career but had issues that prevented him from realising his full potential as a 3-year-old. Now a year older, fit and healthy, he remains unexposed in a sense that we don’t know yet the ceiling.
He won on soft ground as a juvenile. Nonetheless, his best form comes on a sounder surface. This isn’t a class 4 Novice race at Haydock. There’re questions marks, for that reason, in my mind.
I’m curious about Erevann, who enjoys soft ground and on the basis of last years form would be a huge runner. He achieved a career-best in this race 12 months ago, and also won on deep ground a Group 2 in fine style subsequently.
If you’d run last years Jacques Le Marois again you may get a different result… it probably made a difference that Inspiral and Light Infantry finished closer to the rail, while Erevan stayed in the middle and also made contact with a rival two furlongs from home. Another day he wins it.
He wasn’t quite in the same form in two runs this year, yet – at least on paper. Although, perhaps it’s fair to say, he was quite unfortunate in the Prix d’Ispahan when last seen as his path was blocked on the inside rail over a furlong from home at the most crucial stage of the race.
If one wants to see his 2023 form in a negative light, then he was disappointing, given the market expectations on both occasions. In a more positive light one could read it: he has improve with each run and should peak today.
How much more peaking can Big Rock do? Current favourite and one who should enjoy the drop in trip with the deep ground to make it more a test of stamina, nonetheless.
He just got seriously tired in the final furlong in the French Derby, otherwise he’d have been an impressive winner. Big Rock ran consistently strong speed ratings this season. He’s rock solid, so to speak.
A break should have helped to recover from those big efforts. I wonder whether he’s quite at 100% today, though, with some big targets looming large in Autumn?
He’d be my ‘likeliest winner’ selection, nonetheless. At the prices I pass. I also pass on Hi Royal. Obviously I’m a fan, but this is too deep for him, most likely.
In summary: Plenty of serious chances in this field. What a race! At the given prices I’ll see the value in Erevann, who could peak today and with a clear run will be right in the mix when it matters most. Ground, trip and track are perfect.
I have been waiting for The Muffin Man to step up to a mile and he finally does it here, in a seriously poor race, that doesn’t take much for winning it.
The 3-year-old gelding showed some promise this season already, despite an 0/9 record. I wouldn’t give him any more chances, though. This should be his day to shine.
He drops down to a 49 handicap mark, 9 and 7 lb respectively lower than two eye-catching efforts back in May and June. Also his last run was better than the bare result suggested, given there were some solidly handicapped runners in the race, very much so the eventual winner.
He looked a bit sharper early on in the cheek pieces, although, maybe a bit too sharp for his own good. They are off today. The #5 draw is a positive, as long as he isn’t slowly away and gets too far behind as a consequence.
That may happen and seal his fate early on. But he was away well enough when last seen, so here’s hoping. Ben Sanderson claims valuable 3lb – with that in mind, if allowed to run on merit the gelding should be seriously well-handicapped now.
10pts win – The Muffin Man @ 12.5/1
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6.07 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
A hugely frustrating and inconsistent sort, Glorious Rio is one not to trust. However, he showed signs of life multiple times this year, and now returns on turf to the minimum trip, on ground that hopefully doesn’t get too soft.
He pulled hard at Newcastle last time over 6 furlongs but ran well in the circumstances, as he’s done a number of times when somewhat unfortunate not getting the best of runs.
He dropped to a seriously dangerous mark now, down to 60; Glorious Rio won 4 times of similar or higher ratings on multiple surfaces and ground conditions, mostly over the minimum trip and also off big weights.
The #11 could be ideal, as it should lead him nicely into the finish, following those that are setting pace against the stands’ side.
Slight concerns over the weather forecast: I hope it’s only going to be one or two small showers, and no more. I don’t think he wants it proper soft conditions.
His very best came on fast ground. Although, he won on good to soft last summer. So the way it should ride given the current forecast will be fine.
10pts win – Glorious Rio @15/2
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8.07 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
The drop in trip in combination with a drop in class will really suit He’s a Gentleman who didn’t get home the last two times over a mile. He ran with plenty of credit, nonetheless, especially last time out when only beaten late.
He can race off the same mark here, which gives him the opportunity to run in this 0-70 contest where he should find life a little bit easier than most of the time this year so far.
The recent run is a clear return to form, suggesting he’s not far off the excellent form he showed last year when also running to speed ratings in the 70s.
If he can follow-up, with the pace scenario possibly suiting him too, he could prove a step above the rest in this field.
Brilliant run by Beccara Rose last night at Sandown. With a furlong to go I thought she had it. Sadly she got tired, and two horses from off the pace came to catch her.
Shame, still searching for a winner after my return. Dartman faded away rapidly from two furlongs out.
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4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Better ground and a drop in trip should do the trick for lightly raced Captain Cuddles.
This race looks probably a little bit easier, although the same grade, as when he caught the eye a few weeks ago at Ascot.
That day he tracked the hot pace before he made good progress from three furlongs out to move into the lead eventually as the front-runner faded away.
He wasn’t able to sustain the effort but good third and only one in the mix late from those tracking the pace. Winner and runner-up came from well off the pace, instead.
He remains a lightly raced 3-year-old with scope for improvement off 80. I feel the drop in trip can only be a positive, as he may not quite got home over 7 furlongs at Ascot, especially with cut in the ground.
Captain Cuddles is a 6f winner on fast ground as a juvenile, and has only been seen three times since, including this latest return to form. The 5lb claim of solid apprentice Alec Voikhansky can only be a bonus today.
It wasn’t quite the dream start on Tuesday: Albegone finished 2nd, beaten by a head in a dramatic finish. At least I got a solid run for my money, which couldn’t be said for Mudskipper who went backwards as soon as he hit the home straight, much the same way his price went throughout the evening.
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2.25 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Plenty of question marks over most in this field, but 3-year-old gelding Dartman is a rock-solid runner who caught the eye in a hot York Handicap when last seen.
That day he led and set a solid pace, especially in the first half of the race. He hit the home straight in front but was soon heavily challenged.
Racing room became tight and he got hampered over 1.5f out, though was perhaps already going backwards. Nonetheless, I was impressed by the attitude he showed to keep going, as he found some momentum in the final furlong and run well to the line.
Dartman remains a maiden after six career starts, but showed promise a number of times and looks capable of a big run off a 74 handicap mark.
This isn’t a strong race and 7 furlongs at Brighton could suit him really well, if he handles the ground.
This is also William Carver’s only ride on the day. He goes pretty well and is one of the stronger riders here. The negative is the drift in the betting this morning. Although, it makes Dartman a very backable price in my book.
10pts win – Dartman @ 7/1
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7.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
I can see the appeal of unexposed Muktamil off a low mark as the son of Sea The Stars should enjoy this trip. But as many in this field, plenty of question marks on fitness and form. This is wide open.
Not sure today is her day, the drying ground however should be a big help, Beccara Rose appears overpriced as she moves up in trip as well and should enjoy the 10 furlongs at this galloping track.
I thought her last run at Kempton was huge given the circumstances in what was a strong race. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go close.
There she was slowly away, but soon recovered and doing probably too much to move quickly into a midfield position.
She kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fastest over the last three furlongs but couldn’t quite get to speedier and better placed rivals.
The return to turf will suit as long as the ground continues to dry, which is expected during a hot day. I believe she could be well-handicapped here if allowed to run on merit.
She showed promise in the past and had excuses in her lesser runs as she didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action, while her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on decent ground as well.
But it remains noteworthy Beccara Rose was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on her debut – in soft – last year.
Hello world, I’m back. I needed a little break: after many months of diving into racing all-out day after day through the winter, spring and the first summer months, some rest was much needed.
Many thanks to all of you who asked through various channels whether I’m okay – that’s really appreciated. I’m okay.
With everything in life for me it’s all in or all out for me. I watch tons of racing and love it. But there comes a point when it becomes too much and time away from the game is needed to recharge and especially renew the excitement.
Truth is, I do enjoy the betting side much more during the winter. It’s less racing and less horses to keep track of. I can easily watch all the races without rushing and it never becomes a slog.
The flat season is tough. It’s so much racing. I love the big races but my bread and butter are the low-grade Handicaps, especially over shorter trips. It’s simply too much, though. Who knows whether I’m the only one but the vastness of racing on offer can become overwhelming in the summer months.
Hence, practically ever year, at some point between July and August I have to pull the plug and let it all go. And then come back happy and ready to be all in. So here we go again.
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8.10 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Albegone proved to be in good nick when rather unfortunate last month at Catterick as he got stuck behind a bunch of horses and came home easily with the impression there was more in the tank.
He’s a tricky sort, who can pull for his head and has a tendency to hang, but his recent runs were – to the most part – better than the bare form.
I find myself going back to his 22/05 performance at Carlisle especially, where he set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired late. That’s strong form.
He’s 7lb lower now, a pound lower than the speed rating he ran to in May, so he should be seriously competitive in this field as he He drops in class into 0-60 company.
The ground won’t be an issue: Albegone is seen to best effect with ease in the ground. He ran well at Ripon in the past as well.
10pts win – Albegone @ 6/1
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8.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
Mudskipper hasn’t fulfilled the potential I thought he had before the season. However, there are some valid excuses as well, and now gelded, going up in trip again on his All-Weather debut he could be underestimated.
He showed promise last year in three runs but was a disappointing favourite at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance back in April. He bumped into a well-handicapped one and the ground was tough that day, so perhaps he just didn’t get home for valid reasons.
Over a mile in his next two starts, a trip most likely a bit on the sharp side, he never looked like winning but I thought he ran with plenty of credit, especially the last time at Sandown where he didn’t get the best of runs but finished well in the final furlong.
The longer trip is sure to suit today, as could be the switch to the sand and with headgear on it may help him to stay better focused in the closing stages.
Those are the naked numbers. They mask what was a shambolic month, in truth. I didn’t deserve to turn a profit, no matter how small, in June. And did so by pure luck, not by skill.
As I upped the volume significantly (already started last month, which turned a profit thanks to one big winner) I was basically falling into a habit of gambling.
Not making good, informed decisions, weighing up chances for and against properly. And while still plenty of my eyecatchers won, I still couldn’t back the ‘right’ ones. It felt like trying to catch a fish in murky water.
68 bets in a single month: that’s an awful lot. I never had more bets in a single month, ever. Way too many. It diluted the quality of my selections.
While the facts for playing volume are clear and obvious, my way was always quality before quantity. Hence it’s unusual for me to endure subsequent series of 31 and 16 consecutive losing bets in one month.
Of cousre the “what if” always weighs on the mind. Including those six winners, there were 25 placed selections. That’s about 46% of selections finished in the first three, some at huge prices. If one of those wins, then I may have been inclined to feel more positive about June 2023.
But I shouldn’t, because the truth remains the same: too many bets, not enough quality. The fact selections only beat SP 31 times and BSP even less, tells a more accurate story.
Especially those horses in the 3/1-5/1 bracket did exceptionally poorly.
Saying that, I often struggle in the summer months because it’s just so much racing. Way too much. I can’t keep up, even with specialising only on sprint handicaps, to the most part.
But the bigger picture is always important. Four of six months have been green this year. 10 of the last 17. 17 of the last 28 (since 2021). It’s a long game. And in the long run it’s going up. I just need to find the right balance again. Quality over quantity.
As badly as June ended, with 16 conseqeuitive losers (standing at 20 currently), it was incredibly sweet when 33/1 shot Royal Champion ended my losing run of 31 at Royal Ascot in the most brilliant way.
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