Tag Archives: February

Betting

Monday Selections: 3rd February 2025

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It’s St Brigid’s Day, which marks the the beginning of spring, and I can certainly feel a spring in my step, knowing the days get longer, the sun is supposed to show itself more often from now on, and the flat season isn’t too far away, either.

It’s a low-key racing day in Ireland, where today is also a public holiday, as well as the usual stuff in the UK on a typical Monday during the winter months. But I’ve got some spare time on my hands and found two decent looking bets to try and make the day pay, nonetheless.

Looking 5km to the south from where I live, lies Punchestown. It’s not a card that gets me out of the door to get myself over there today, but the 4.10 Mares Handicap Hurdle appears to shape like an intriguing race.

In this race over 2m 7f it should pay dividends to be close to the pace, given more than half the field may not want to be to soon in front.

Slotty Dotty and Slim Marvel, currently first and second favourite in the betting, could be ideally placed, while No Fussing, who also features prominently in the market, could be left with a lot to do when it matters most.

Slotty Dotty, thanks to her recent course win, stares as the natural favourite. However, despite that commanding 7 lengths victory over 2m 6f, it was a poor race, and she has to define a 10lb hike in her mark also.

Slim Marvel in contrast drops into an easier race after a superb runner-up effort from out of the weights at Cork over todays trip, beaten behind a winner who was highly tried subsequently.

She won a maiden hurdle in July and was placed off 102 and 104 (107 effectively) and this is only her sixth handicap run, and the first time on this type of deep ground. She was placed in maiden hurdle on heavy going, though.

There could be improvement to come in these conditions over this trip, given ran well to the the line, jumped and travelled strongly, and was only beaten by a better quality of horse, that she is unlikely to meet today.

At about 5/1 on the exchanges I’ll take the punt that she gets home strongly today.

Over at Wolverhampton the lucky last 8.30 6f Handicap appeals from a pace point of view. Few want the lead here, which could add to the overall bias towards front-runners.

Nevernay is one who doesn’t mind to run from the front or race prominently, at the very least, and has ran his best races if allowed to stride on.

From the #6 draw he shouldn’t have too much trouble to move forward here. This 11-race maiden drops ever so slightly in class and has been given an opportunity by the handicapper as well, having dropped the gelding to 59.

He ran a huge race over 7f at this venue back in December, though doing too much during the mid-section of the race, and didn’t quite get home to finish 3rd, only 1.5l beaten in the end.

A poor showing at Southwell subsequently, was followed by an awkward effort three weeks ago at Southwell. He was seriously keen, and hard to keep in check by an inexperienced female rider. The race was lost in the first two furlongs. but as a consequence he can race officially in 0-60 off 59 now.

If Nevernay can find back the form he showed in December, he’ll be a big chance today off this mark. Adding to the intrigue is the headgear combination of hood and tongue tie.

The yard has had plenty of success with this type of headgear in the past, so if it can help him to settle, and he is up with the pace, he may not be stopping and hard to peg back.

Joanna Mason goes through a dry spell at the moment, but normally as good rides for the yard, so the booking adds more cautious optimism to the chances of this son of No Nay Never. There is some money coming this morning, so at 9’s he’s one I back.

Selections:
10pts win – Slim Marvel @ 5/1
10pts win – Nevernay @ 8/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #9

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Primo’s Comet
20/02/23 – 6.00 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear, possibly slightly impeded around 4f out as pace wasn’t rapid and it got tight amongst those held up. Switched toward inside rail but didn’t get a run until late. Seriously light ride.

Rapidly falls in his rating. Still managed to run to 61 and 63 speed rating in October and November. Should be ready for big run soon over minimum trip.

Race Replay

Streetscape
20/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved forward to track the early pace. Challenged leaders from over 2 furlongs out to hit the front soon after. Gutsy run right to the line but beaten by winner and second from rear of the field.

Handicap debut, off a break; should be able to improve. Remains of interest over 1m but looks to have even options over 10 furlongs on pedigree.

Race Replay

Samba Lady
21/02/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Seriously keen in the first half of the race on first try over 7f. Made excellent progress and was fastest through 4 to final furlong. Pushed eventual winner who made all hard to the line.

Looks increasingly exposed but off this lowered 63 mark should be really competitive, if the handicapper leaves her untouched, in similar 0-65 Handicap once more down to 6f.

Around a turn with a good draw and not too much pace to compete is the obvious ideal scenario over the shorter trip.

Race Replay

Beneficiary
23/02/23 – 7.00 Newcastle:

Moved forward, pushed solid pace as part of a duo, took up the lead 2f out, still ahead approaching final furlong but then tired rapidly.

Second run for new yard. Ran to 63 speed rating in the past. Good form this here, looks to be hitting peak soon. Drop in grade or any help from handicapper will be intriguing, as would be 6f around a bend of 5f at Newcastle once again.

Race Replay

Regal Glory
24/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Overcame widest draw easily to lead early one, before settling second closely following the leader. Attacked from 3f out before slowing over 2f out, before badly hampered. In the clear over half a furlong from home and got going again.

Mile is probably too far. Won nicely over 7f two runs back, and also ran to 57 speed rating prior. Ideally drops down in trip again. any help from the handicapper will be a bonus.

Race Replay

Man Made Of Smoke
24/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Moved forward, led keenly, set even gallop, led until turning for home. Paid for keenness in the final part of the race.

It seems he doesn’t really get trip. It was not a hot pace, but he struggled to settle well at this slower gallop. He remains amaiden, but run often well in the past as evidence of his mark that didn’t move much.

He’s usually up with pace, so should enjoy a drop to 7f when he can go a bit faster. He didn’t have too many chances over this trip on AW.

Race Replay

Game Nation
24/02/23 – 2.50 Lingfield:

Chased the hot pace, going pretty well as he started his challenge over 2f out. Led 1.5f from home but tired badly in the closing stages.

Still a maiden but remains unexposed and has dropped rapidly in the mark to something more realistic. Will almost certainly enjoy a step up in trip.

Race Replay

Sir Rodneyredblood
25/02/23 – 6.40 Chelmsford:

Excellent early speed, helped by low draw. Led, strong pace. Tried hard but eventually fading from 1f out.

Back from a small break. Ran well a number of times in autumn. Best at Chelmsford and Lingfield over 5 to 6 furlongs.

Ideally drops down to 0-60, but will keep open mind in right race, depending on track, draw and pace map.

Race Replay

Bang On The Bell
17/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton

Quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders as the field entered the turn. Pushed strong pace as part of trip, before getting quite tired in the home straight.

Much better thank comeback run, although that was over 6 furlongs. Increasingly drops to a dangerous mark again. Ideally want to see him below 70 over the minimum trip. He could be really-well handicapped then in the right race.

Race Replay

Candy Warhol
28/02/23 – 7.00 Southwell:

Restrained from widest draw, travelled in rear. Makes progress from over 3f out as pace increased to be in a challenging position at the top of the home straight. Kept in a pocket there and didn’t get a clear run until late. Unlucky.

Handicap debut. Looks on a fair opening mark judged on this effort. Any natural improvement would see this lightly raced 4yo well capable of winning a similar race.

Race Replay

Fanzone
28/02/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Not quite the sharpest out of wider than ideal draw, bit keen, settled in midfield. Travelled well for a long time and fond plenty once pulled out and asked for full effort.

Excellent comeback run after 188 days off. Caught eye a number of times last year on the flat. Not one to trust too much but should be on a pretty good mark now if he could hold his form.

Race Replay

Eastern Star
01/03/23 – 5.30 Kempton:

Grabbed lead and set seriously hot pace early on. Had the field on the stretch, still going well turning for home. Severely under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Impressive how he pulled out more and fought back gamely.

Must be in serious form. Better over 7 furlongs. Was due to drop 2lb but unlikely that’s going to happen now. Should be really intriguing as he has a 7f entry next Friday as he was off 54 only a shoulder beaten in a similar contest exactly 12 months ago.

Race Replay

Secretary
02/03/23 – 1.25 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear early on but quite keen, gradually pulled his way forward. Came with good looking challenge but faded badly in the final furlong.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip. Family is sprint heavy dam won over 7 furlongs, though. Eye catching win when last seen in 2022 at Chelmsford overcoming widest draw. Looks potentially on a lenient mark if dropping down to 7f again.

Race Replay

Spartan Fighter
03/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Chased pace early on, before applying pressure on the leaders from three furlongs out to lead as he kicked on; still ahead approaching the final furlong before getting tired.

Outran his odds in the last runs. Looks in form. Won of higher marks last March at Newcastle. also running to 71, 74 and 77 speed ratings. Worth monitoring for some support in the market. Can’t be long before he’s ready to strike.

Race Replay

Punk Poet
03/03/23 – 8.00 Dundalk:

Excellent start from wide draw, up with the pace early on, before he settled in the chasing pack. Travelled really strongly into the home straight but faded rapidly.

Reappearance off 26 days off the track. Most likely needed the run, given the way he dropped out quickly. Down to good mark already but may get additional help now from the handicapper.

Won off 82 and 82 last year, also ran to 82 speed rating. Versatile as he stays a mile and is pacey enough for 7 furlongs. Usually likes to be up with the pace.

Race Replay

Pulse Of Shanghai
03/03/23 – 8.o0 Dundalk

Pushed forward from very wide draw, eventually got to the lead entering the bend. Had to do a lot to get there. Kicked on nicely approaching the home straight, still leading 1.5f out, before rapidly falling away.

Good run. Outperformed big odds more often than not lately, but never threatening. Comes to intriguing mark. Anything closer to 60 now over 6 or 7f at Dundalk with good, draw will be interesting. 7f is a stretch, though. Depends on the other pace in the race. Also turf off 58 intriguing.

Race Replay

Little Keilee
03/03/23 – 9.00 Dundalk

Bit keen early on and was forced to settle in rear on the inside as the way forward was closed from her wide draw. Travelled well entering the home straight and went for a run toward the stands’ side. Badly hampered and repeatedly clear run denied.

Appeared to be going well enough to suggest she could have gone close with a clear run, although was a bad drifter in the betting on the day. Lightly raced, only second handicap start; was in season lto, that run can be discounted.

Race Replay

Betting

All-Weather Wednesday: 1st March 2023

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It’s not often that this small and completely irrelevant blog gets much attention. And why would it? However, the piece about my self-experiment with the ProCush whip seems to have hit a nerve within the racing bubble.

This site received in the last two days as much traffic as it normally would get in two-three full months! The original tweet was seen over 225k times, and messages came flying from all over the globe.

It was an even bigger surprise when doing the cooking on Monday night when I usually listen to the Betfair podcast to heat Kevin Blake highlighting the piece (58:36).

It’s been a crazy 24h, that’s for sure. I am only a racing fan who writes about the sport. Nothing special. It shows there is appetite for real info on the whip, though. Something to address by the governing bodies. For all they lack the will, obviously.

On the betting front Galileo Glass finished a super 2nd today, but didn’t get the gap when needed. He surely would have won otherwise. Big Impact ran too free, unfortunately.

Ends February on minus 10pts. After a super start to the month, I now haven’t backed a winner in nearly three weeks, 16 selections and counting, and also 45pts down on the year. It will be all updated here by tomorrow, as always.

…….

2.30 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Muy Muy Guapo was a huge eyecatcher when last seen at Kempton. He was a bit awkward away from the gate, settled in last, then travelled strongly into the home straight.

He was easily able to answer every acceleration from the front group, but didn’t get a clear passage, while not really asked for full effort at all.

That was his Handicap debut and first run for the Simon Dow yard off a 100 day break. He is very much expected to improve for the run.

There is clearly a lot of talent, certainly compared to the opposition here. He’s still a colt and cost £115k as a yearling. Horses in this grade don’t often travel that well and can answer every pace acceleration that easily as Muy Muy Guapo did last time out.

He was even rewarded with a pound off his mark for that pretty spectacular effort. He looks tremendously well-handicapped.

10pts win – Muy Muy Guapo @ 5/1

…….

3.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Big Bard ran better than the bare suggests the last two times. He came on my radar thanks a brave front-running performance on the last day of the old year. That form looks quite strong on paper.

He ran with credit next time out over 7 furlongs too, after things got rough in the early parts of the race, which meant he was set alight and pulling hard. He still travelled really well for a very long time.

The drop in trip to 6 furlongs is sure to suit here. He also has been dropped another 2lb, now rated 58. He looks handicapped to go close.

He ran to speed ratings 59 and 60 since September, although on turf, but his career best speed rating on All-Weather is 59, which he achieved twice, albeit at Chelmsford.

The race could be set up for him from the #2 draw with not much pace to compete with, if Hector Crouch wants to move forward.

10pts win – Big Bard @ 9/1

……..

8.30 Kempton: Classified Stakes, 6f

Good things come in threes, once again? I certainly hope so. I have given up on Paddy K after his recent gallant, but ultimately unfortunate runner-up performance at Southwell. He remains a maiden.

Instead, I go back to my trusted source of despair, that is May Remain. The 8-year-old ran a massive race last time out, when he moved rapidly forward from the widest draw and set the world alight from the front.

No surprise to see him finish a very tired horse. Still, he managed to finish 3rd, and that form doesn’t look bad in the context of this field.

He has the benefit of a #2 draw here, which is absolutely ideal. This course and distance favours front-runners and low draws. He won’t have his own way up front and there is danger that he does too much early on.

But the latest form, as well as a number of previous runs this winter, gave the impression that he is simply excellent form, and possibly better than the vast majority in this field.

10pts win – May Remain @ 5/1

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday: 28th February 2023

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It was eventful day on multiple fronts. Only on the betting front it didn’t click. Still searching in vain for the winner that gets me out of this rotten spell.

Sharron Macready went off favourite in the end. Great, I got a super price, once again…. it counted for nothing. No excuses, though. She had every chance and wasn’t good enough.

…….

7.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Is this ‘the’ day for Galileo Glass? The early market suggests it could be the case. More so, it’s been his last two performances that suggested he is close to peak form, however.

Mid-January over this course and distance he was a significant eyecatcher as he was restrained at the back of the field after a good start. He turned for home in last position, seemed poised for a solid challenge, but didn’t get a clear run before he finished easily.

Fitted with a visor for the first time when last seen, over the same course and distance, he was sharp out of the gate, possibly did a bit too much early on, though, yet travelled strongly into the home straight. He didn’t quite get a clear run over 2f out; in any case he didn’t have a chance with the winner and tired.

Both runs appear to be strong form, and made plenty of appeal visually. He drops into 0-60 class here, dropped a pound in the ratings, where he’s meeting a really poor bunch of rivals in this field.

The #11 draw is a not ideal, there is a clear danger that he is going to be caught wide. It’s worth taking the risk simply because I think he has quite a bit in hand in this field. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a bonus.

10pts win – Galileo Glass @ 5/1

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am following Big Impact for a while. He’s been quite consistent this winter, having performed with credit and ran to some solid speed ratings.

He looked somewhat in the grip of the handicapper, but he caught the eye a number of times when he ran better than the bare form suggest also.

Now down to a mark of 55, 4lb lower than his last winning mark, as he drops down into 0-55 class, he must have a tremendous chance.

He’ll enjoy the ideal #3 draw here and should enjoy the fast pace of the race. He tends to pull hard; so happened last time out over this course and distance. Then from a wider #7 gate he just didn’t settle and wasted a lot of energy.

It was still noteworthy that he kept coming back for more in the closing stages. He should get a lead here from Ustath, and hopefully drops his head. That’s the risk, always.

But this is a not an overly competitive race. He’s clearly in excellent form as evidence of three speed ratings of 56+. He’s potentially on a lenient mark and can move forward from the perfect draw.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 13/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 27th February 2023

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7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Competitive race that should be fast and furious as many are keen to go forward. I also have three eyecatchers running here. I still want to get involved.

Favourite Glorious Charmer is one of those who will look to get some of that early pace. Bidding for a hat-trick, the #5 draw may not be an issue, but he must overcome a new handicap mark of 56. He hasn’t run beyond a speed rating of 52 in the last two years. Looks poor value.

Bang On The Bell down in trip after a recent comeback run makes a lot of appeal. He may be able to come with a strong finish thanks to the fast pace. But a #9 draw is a disadvantage and has a poor record over this C&D.

Of course I have to like the chances of Proclivity, and to a lesser extend Prince Of Rome. The former ran a huge race last time out. He should run his race, though possibly showed too much of his hand lto to be considered well handicapped in this field and pace scenario.

Prince Of Rome won’t have his own way up front. I felt there were not too many excuses last time. 2lb lower than lto is intriguing but the fact he hasn’t run speed ratings that match or better his current mark in a long time tell the tale. Not giving up quite yet on him, but it has to be another day.

Veteran Astrophysics was an excellent winner over course and distance two weeks ago. This is tougher but he could get a nice lead into the home straight from the #3 draw.

No question, though, the one I want to be on here is the filly Sharron Macready. I am more than happy to give her another chance after last weeks poor effort at Southwell.

She finally dropped to the minimum trip there but after an awkward start was once again mad keen. She just went off too hard and burned out quickly.

There is no doubt she is better than that. She was often overly keen in many of her races over 6 furlongs. But ran well, often better than the bare form. The September performance here Wolverhampton over 6f was especially noteworthy. I also liked her Kempton run two starts ago when she kept answering the challenges.

This will only be her second ever opportunity over the minimum trip. She is still lightly enough raced to remain open to improvement, especially if she can settle better.

The expected fast pace can only help her I believe here. So does the #1 draw. She can move forward, using her early speed to get to the front, while others have to do more to get to their preferred position.

Tongue tie and hood are fitted. That could help her to settle better. If it does indeed then I am more than hopeful she proves better than her current 64 handicap mark.

I also take it as an encouraging sign that connections run her so quickly back to back with the new headgear. Strike while the iron is hot – she seems ripe to win, if she can relax a bit better.

Not that it means much, perhaps, but the early prices have quickly vanished as well, but I am more than delighted having snapped up across the night an overall price that is possibly quite a number of points too big as it gives the risk of the filly not settling too much weight, in my view.

She is probably the second best horse in the race with the likelihood of an ideal trip she has no excuses and every chance to outrun the price tag.

10pts win – Sharron Macready @ 7/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 25th February 2023

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It’s not really happening for me right now. Even though – and that’s all I can ask for – it was a massive run by Royal Tribute last night at Dundalk. But was only good enough for a 4th place finish in the end.

It was odd to see him held up in last after an excellent start. He made a huge move from 3 furlongs out to lead at the final furlong marker, but he mad that move right into the hottest part of the race, so no surprise to see him fade late.

I’ll try to maintain positivity. Especially in light of a superb day of racing today. Kenilworth, South Africa is the place to be. 2.15 is the time to remember: Cape Derby time – Charles Dickens goes off the hot favourite and let’s just hope he can show something spectacular.

………

1.40 Kenilworth: Listed Jet Master Stakes, 8f

A wide open contest, that sees top rated Al Muthana return to his preferred distance. he was the shock winner of the King’s Plate, but couldn’t follow up in the Met over 10 furlongs, which wasn’t a surprise to see.

Obviously, if he would run to the level of form shown over this course and distance in January, when beating Charles Dickens, he’s the one to beat.

Two issues he may encounter, though: he’s got overcome 62kg on his back. And the low draw, albeit generally a positive, may mean he has to challenge against the inside rail, if he doesn’t want to lose a lot of ground to angle out toward the preferred stands’ side. The market sees it the same, and has a fair 6/1 chance.

Favourite Silvano Dasher won two hot handicaps on the bounce. He’s got to prove his stamina over this trip, though. From his wide draw he’ll be ridden for a turn of foot I assume. Makes little appeal at current odds.

Lightweight Imilenzeyokududuma looks attractive. He is progressive, loves this course and distance and should enjoy the perfect race tracking the pace from his #4 draw.

At the prices I simply have to back classy Warrior, though. He ran really lately, in hot races, often having to overcome wide draws. His stamina was stretched in the Met when last seen, but his run was huge against the very best opposition.

He also was a fast finishing 3rd in the Grade 2 Anthonij Rupert Wyne Premier Trophy prior, when he had to overcome a wide #13 draw, then over 9 furlongs.

The drop to 1.600m looks absolute key today. His record is 7-4-2 over this course and distance and he’s got the added bonus of Richard Fourie in the saddle.

The #7 is possibly ideal. Fourie will have every option to chose his race tactics, but I assume he’ll settle somewhere 4-5 lengths off the pace, with the aim to angle out wide for an early challenge from 500 metres out against the stands’ side.

Warrior is a class act in this field and certainly over his preferred trip. He didn’t have many opportunities to run over this C&D since winning the Cape Mile back in November 2021.

10pts win – Warrior @ 6/1

………

2.40 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

I was seriously impressed with Diderot’s comeback run last month. 203 days off, he returned at Southwell in a competitive class 3 Handicap. No surprise on his first run in such a long time to see some signs of keenness early on, before he happily took the lead of the front-runners.

As he tracked the pace he travelled sweetly throughout, hard on the bridle as he approached two furlongs from home and hit the front. Ultimately the winner came flying from off the pace to catch Diderot inside the final furlong.

It was still impressive to see him being able to keep up strongly all the way to the line, which only horse in near peak form could do.

He ran to a strong 88 speed rating on the day, not too far off his best. Today is a hotter race on paper, but judged on performances over the last twelve months his best is best in this field, in fact.

About a year ago he was only a neck beaten over this course and distance off a 94 mark, running to a 94 speed rating. He followed up with more excellent performances on the All-Weather.

He’s not obviously well-handicapped off 95 today. But he’s very likely to be top form, likely to run to his best, and that could be good in a race where there are question marks to answer for many of his rivals.

The pace will be intriguing. There should be a quite a bit of early speed that will likely suit Diderot to slot in behind the leaders, drop his head then and come with a strong finish in the final furlong to hopefully win the race.

10pts win – Diderot @ 7/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 24th February 2023

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Another desperately disappoint effort from my selection last night. Gowanbuster one of the top negative market movers ran exactly like that. Last bunch of selections all beaten before it mattered… makes for grim reading.

I am the first to be critical of my decisions and work, but in hindsight I must say to feel totally comfortable with each and every selection. It’s hopefully just one of those times, a wild downswing.

It’s been a long week in any case. I was so tired last night I forgot to press the “Publish” button for this post as well as to even check whether the entire stake got matched. It didn’t. Thankfully, prices haven’t changed too dramatically for my Dundalk selection with 10s finally matched.

A winner would do me wonders, perhaps…. that says, Saturday is one to be excited about in any case, and I can’t wait for it: Cape Derby in South Africa with the return of Charles Dickens!

……….

6.00 Dundalk: 47-65 Handicap, 7f

Despite the slightly wider than ideal draw, Royal Tribute makes tons of appeal on the basis of his most recent course and distance run earlier this month.

That day he travelled incredibly well, made his challenge toward the inside rail and pocked his head in front 2 furlongs from home. He wasn’t a match for the eventual winner who came with a strong finish on the stands’ side.

But he ran on for second place, having the measure of two subsequent winners in third and fourth place. The form looks strong, therefore, and a better race than this one.

In my view Royal Tribute wasn’t disgraced last time out when dropped to 6 furlongs. He travelled well once again but didn’t have the pace to challenge and fell away in the closing stages.

Back over 7 furlongs, as a course and distance winner off the same mark he looks one of the likelier sorts to run his race. He clearly continues to be in good form and has the added bonus of Colin Keane in the saddle.

CTK was riding two runs back as well, so he is familiar with the horse, who can be a tricky starter. navigating the #9 draw will be a fine balancing act.

Hope the pace will play out isn’t entirely clear, with some f those potentially eager to move forward drawn wide as well. I hope Keane gets him off to a solid start and can settle no worse than midfield without being caught wide, which leaves every option entering the home straight.

Challenging wide toward the stands’ worked well often in the last weeks in general, so the #9 draw may force Keane’s hands to go down that route, which wouldn’t be a disadvantage per se.

Dangerous opposition in form and well handicapped is scare in the field. One can argue Royal Tribute is rated close enough to his current merit. However, given he was left on the same mark after the huge recent CD performance, gives him in this poor field a strong chance.

10pts win – Royal Tribute @ 10/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 23rd February 2023

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Unfortunately the scenario where He’s So Brazen goes off hard and doesn’t get home over the stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle materialised today. Worse: old ‘friend’ Lucky Lucky Lucky got home to win nicely…. clearly not going too well lately.

……….

8.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Gowanbuster has been knocking on the door lately, as he showed plenty of good signs in all his last three runs since his comeback after a wind operation during last summer. He clearly is in superb form and a winner in the making.

He ran to a 59 speed rating last time out; his best in three years. He was ridden with more patience than usual, and came strongly in the second half of the race the challenge for victory, just to beaten by the even stronger finishing and evidently well-handicapped Tathmeen, who won subsequently again.

That was a huge performance and tied in nicely with his two prior runs that were eye catching in their own right.

He drops to the minimum trip again, which I feel is ideal, given the way he faded late after racing much more prominently than the last times. His C&D record is only 9-1-1 but this race looks perfectly set up for his usual racing style.

He should be able to move forward to grab a relatively uncontested lead, which is an advantage over this course and distance. He has the added benefit of staying further, so should be able to keep the challengers at bay in the closing stages.

10pts win – Gowanbuster @ 4/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 22nd February 2023

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5.05 Newcastle: Classified Stakes, 7f

The drop in trip looks possibly ideal for How Bizarre, who ran a massive race last time out at Newcastle over a mile. But ultimately his profile, as an 8-year-old, on the All-Weather, is totally exposed. Hence I readjust my interest toward He’s So Brazen, who looks also suited by the drop to 7 furlongs.

He caught my attention in early December at Wolverhampton for the first time. That day He’s So Brazen was was seriously keen throughout the race, but especially between 5 to 4 furlongs out. It was impressive, all the more when he loomed large seemingly ready for a big challenge as he entered the home straight. He fell away eventually, showed a high head-carriage, looked awkward, was wandering, and ran into trouble over one furlong out.

He also caught the eye on his next and most recent run, then at Southwell, over a mile. He led the field in first time blinkers, again showing signs of keenness, as he set a solid tempo, especially early on. I was impressed that he was able to kick on again three furlongs out, before falling away, proving awkward once again.

He has clearly issues and is a tricky customer. But he clearly got enough ability to win a race of this desperately low level, and remains somewhat lightly raced, certainly in the context of this race.

He doesn’t stay a mile and the jury is out whether he even gets home over 7 furlongs. A demanding, stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle could be right at his limit, I reckon. But what gives hope is the stamina on the dam side through the dam sire and the fact his sire’s record over this C&D is surprisingly positive.

In any case the drop to 7 furlongs is a major bonus, given that he should settle better, at the very least. Second time blinkers fitted should help him to be sharp out of the gate and he may be a bit better used to them now.

It’s only his second try over the trip – the first one came on turf as a 66/1 chance. Therefore he’s open to improvement. If he does settle and gets home over this trip he has a huge chance to outrun his big price tag.

10pts win – He’s So Brazen @ 13/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #8

2 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Counsel
07/02/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Seriously keen from wide draw, jockey tried to restrain him, before rushing forward on the widest outside to grab lead entering the home turn, having done way too much up to that point. Fell away in the final two furlongs.

Some interesting tactics have been deployed on this horse lately. Caught the eye last time as well. He’s possibly a few pounds too high in the mark. Strong run last month when runner-up at Chelmsford off 76.

Drop to 7f could be interesting, although no doubt he stays a mile. Needs a bit more help from the handicapper and one to watch out for when the market signals are positive.

Race Replay

First Company
08/02/23 – 6.30 Kempton:

Crossed quickly over from #11 draw to the inside, seriously keen, especially tough to control up on entering the bend. Travelled strongly into home straight, not quite the clearest of runs but impressive change of gear as he weaves through the field from 1.5f out, before getting tiered.

Probably doesn’t stay the trip, but also finds it tough to get home over 7f due to racing too freely. Sole win over minimum trip. Still unexposed on the All-Weather over shorter sprint trips.

Yet to be expected to run well on the sand. Comes down to intriguing mark. Drop in trip and good draw could do wonders. Ran six times to 70+ speed ratings on turf over 5 furlongs.

Race Replay

Outrace
08/02/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Moved forward to lead, was about three lengths ahead soon, reduced lead entering the home straight and headed 2f out, kept answering the challenge and rallied strongly. Eventually tiered, finished third with winner from well off the pace and on back to back wins.

Showed great attitude and continues his excellent recent form. Would be really interesting down in trip over 7f. Even though he won over a mile, he probably doesn’t see out a strongly run race, but has the pedigree and pace to dominate over the short trip.

Race Replay

Far From A Ruby
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved quickly forward from #1 draw, early on isolated on her side; pushing a hot pace. Rapidly faded away from 2 furlongs out.

First run in 135 days, dropped away like one who was badly in need of the run. Lovely pipe opener, though. Trip too short and she was able to go the pace early on.

Will be interesting once up in trip again, 7-8f. Showed in Autumn to be still capable of performances that could see her well-handicapped off her current mark, running to a 58 speed rating at Ayr, a career-best on turf. She is better on the sand.

Race Replay

Whiteandblue
09/02/23 – 5.10 Newcastle:

Moved forward quickly and set red hot pace – they were faster over the first half than the C4 5f Handicap on the same card. Continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong. Huge run. Career-best speed rating.

Still a maiden, but has the penny dropped? Off same mark really interesting for drop to 5f once more, or 6f around a turn. Ran to 58 in the past and now 59 speed rating.

Race Replay

Papa Cocktail
10/02/23 – 5.35 Southwell:

Awkward away, travelled in rear, loads to do turning for home, seemingly going well; no clear run; finished seriously strongly in the final furlong.

Caught the eye a number of times on turf last year. Tricky horse, seems to have developed issues at the start. However, not expected since August, so somewhat mitigating factors for seemingly poor form.

Up in trip over 7f, if any support in the market he’s going to be serious runner, if he can get well away from the gate. The could have quite a bit in hand before the handicapper one the handbrake is off for good.

Race Replay

Leabaland
10/02/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Travelled really strongly into the home straight. Squeezed upon entering the straight, and multiple times a clear run denied subsequently. No chance to unleash a challenge.

One who seems to find trouble. Not always the clearest of passage the last two runs either. Caught the eye back in October too. Didn’t have a lot of luck with a low draw ever since.

Remains of interest over a mile, ideally with a good draw. He looks in fine form, ready to strike.

Race Replay

Race Replay

Insomina
10/02/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward to grab the lead and set solid fractions from the front. Still ahead by a couple of lengths entering the home straight before fading rapidly.

Changed hands for £3k in December. Three poor runs since, although this one looked more positive given the enthusiasm he travelled with.

Ran to 73 speed rating last summer on the AW. Market will dictate when on a going day. Ideally gets more help from the handicapper before I am getting involved. 7f with a good draw possibly the ideal scenario.

Race Replay

Gobi Sunset
11/02/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Bumped right after the start, pushed forward to lead, setting a healthy gallop. Still ahead entering the final furlong before swamped. Followed up with solid effort at Newcastle.

Off a long break. Usually does well fresh, but was a drifter on the day and perhaps not quite as ready as in previous years. Not too well-handicapped right now but good chance in a similar race over 6 or 7 furlongs with any from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Ri Na Farraige
13/02/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

A bit keen early on, then travelled really strongly. going well and making progress from 3f out, challenge on the wide outside, a bit hanging over 1f out, couldn’t catch winner. Strong form and race

Only second handicap run, achieved 64 speed rating, in line with current mark. Any improvement for second run off break will see him ripe to win.

10f entry next week interesting. Stamina isn’t assured, and he must settle; but worth a go as he kept running well to the line here.

Race Replay

Turbo Tiger
14/02/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy. Swamped over 1f out, bit flat footed, before coming back for more late, which was impressive.

Freshly gelded. Comes to more realistic official rating after a harsh opening mark. Will be interesting for drop to class 6 and possibly a 55 mark as then much more realistic to see him being competitive.

Full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, hence goin up in trip possible as well.

Race Replay

Bridge Water
15/02/23 – 5.00 Kempton:

Widest draw, restrained and trailing the field, nicely settled. Travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out. Finished much the best. Just been poorly positioned.

Unlikely to be strong form. But her run prior warranted an upgrade too. Probably needs a step up to 7f. Can improve then off a low mark.

Race Replay

Rogue Force
15/02/23 – 7.30 Kempton:

Good start, up wit the pace early, bit keen, before then settled in a position tracking the pace. Travelled the best to the 2 furlong marker but didn’t find much off the bridle.

Didn’t see out his races too well the last two times. Looks in need of a drop to 7f, unless previous wind issues are back . Won over 7f off 75 in the past.

Looks one who needs frequent breaks, usually best on second start. In right conditions certainly of interest given mark will continue to fall.

Race Replay

Royal Tribute
15/02/23 – 2.20 Dundalk:

Tracked pace in midfield three deep, travelled well, but looked awkward and hanging in the home straight. Solid follow-up from excellent runner-up performance in early February.

That day over 7f furlongs he made good use of low draw and tracked pace. Travelled really strongly into the home straight, on the bridle approaching 2f out, ran on for strong second. Form franked subsequently.

Becomes interesting if back over 7f and with any help from the handicapper with a good draw. Appears to be in fine form and not far off the excellent form shown on turf last summer.

Race Replay

Pittsburg
17/02/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Travelled on the inside well off the pace, going strongly, notably on the bridle entering the home straight with plenty to do. Not clear run until the final furlong marker; ran on easily.

Trip too short. Big price, wasn’t expected. Flat maiden but unexposed on the flat. Three strong performances prior over 1m to 11f. Will be interesting up in trip again, especially with any help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Revoquable
17/02/23 – 5.15 Southwell:

Crossed over from widest draw quickly to track the leader closely before taking up the front from over 2f out. Gutsy and answering the challenges until getting tired inside the final furlong.

Will be intriguing once he drops below a 55 mark, ideally also down in trip to 7 furlongs. Should be strong runner in those circumstances.

Race Replay

Lady Nagin
17/02/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Pulled her way to the front right before entering the bend. Wasted a lot of energy. Impressive attitude in the home straight when heavily challenged as she only went down fighting late in the final furlong.

Obviously has stamina for the trip and possibly beyond but keenness is an issue. Won well over CD lto, but I would be intrigued to see her dropping down to 5f, especially at at stiff finish like Newcastle.

Race Replay

Sunset Nova
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Settled well off the pace, travelled smoothly into the home straight wit ha wall of horses in front. Angled out to the stands’ side, as consequence relegated to last. Ran on a bit under pretty light ride.

Was seriously well backed in the morning from 33’s. 3rd run since gelding. Drops down to increasingly sexy mark. Any further help from the handicapper will be a intriguing. Probably 7f ideal at this stage but won over anything 6-8f.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
17/02/23 – 5.30 Dundalk:

Dwelt, lost a number of lengths at the start, then rapidly moved forward to track the pace on the inside. Was going well entering the home straight, answered the challenges before getting tired inside the final furlong.

Tricky sort, lost his way in the last year. Was rated 92 twelve months ago. Changed hands for £12,000 in August. Continued to perform poorly and fell down in the ratings.

Clear return to form. Off a 67 mark over 7 furlongs he looks dangerous if allowed to run on merit and if in the right mood. Dangerous sort, nonetheless.

Race Replay