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Racing Talk

Stat of the Day – Thursday 25th August 2016

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

33.33 – the percentage of winners trainer James Tate had in lower grade handicaps at Wolverhampton this year!

In fact more than one half of all his starters have been placed in 2016; with the addition of Luke Morris in the saddle the success rate increases even more.

This is not a new trend, given that Tate has always been smart in identifying the right type of horse to exploit those uncompetitive races on the All-Weather during the summer months when there is so much racing going on elsewhere.

He’s doing this mainly with three year old’s in races against older horses where during the summer months the weight for age allowance provides its most substantial advantage for the younger horse against older, often exposed individuals.

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Thursday Selections:

Three days into the week and three winners richer! It’s been quite a week so far, so long may it last. Three selections today; most interesting James Tate’s runner in the penultimate race at Wolverhampton.

2.30 Musselburgh: Lil’s Affair @ 9/1 Bet365
6.45 Wolverhampton: Control Centre @ 16/1 Coral
8.45 Wolverhampton: Rocket Power @ 4/1 Bet365

Racing Talk

Stat of the Day

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0 – Despite being one the top sires in producing winners in sprint handicaps at Brighton over the last number of years, Pastoral Pursuit is not quite enjoying a successful season with his offspring this year.

Zero winners at Brighton in total to this date this year, however a 100% place rate over six furlongs could mean hope isn’t lost yet, given he enjoyed a near 29% strike rate the seasons before.

Can he bounce back today? Two runners for him at Brighton: Pursuit Of Time the one I find most interesting. Dropped in trip significantly, with blinkers and tongue tie applied for the first time.

Monday Selections:

2.00 Brighton: Mystic Dawn @ 7/1 Racebets
2.30 Brighton: Pursuit Of Time @ 20/1 Ladbrokes

Racing Talk

Stat of the Day

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22 – If you would have backed every son and daughter of the great Fastnet Rock over the 12 furlong trip at Wolverhampton with one euro each this year, you’d have made a healthy profit of €22! That equates for an impressive 71% strike rate.

It’s not an overly massive sample size, nonetheless potentially significant, given 86% of his runners placed too.

Fastnet Rock offspring generally tends to perform extremely well on Wolverhampton’s tapeta surface, though the 1m 2f success rate is clearly eye-popping. So watch out for his runners.

Friday Selections:

7.50 Wolverhampton: Fastnet Blast @ 11/2 Skybet
8.50 Wolverhampton: Berkeley Vale @ 7/1 Bet365

Photo: The Australian
Betting Talk, United Kingdom

Thursday Selections

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An 8/1 winner, a second, a third and a fourth…. Wednesday wasn’t a bad day, though could easily have been a great one. Put Curriculum in your tracker. He could have finished mush closer than 4th and wasn’t killed with another day clearly looming large.

Also Fleeting Dream is rather obviously up to win a race sooner rather than later and got a not particularly well timed ride – though the handicapper may have seen the potential too by now.

So what’s on the menu today? Not much, I have to say. Two selections nonetheless, although not that confident ones.

7.30 Newcastle: Dream Team @ 20/1 Betfred

The odds-on favourite might be hard to beat but I take a chance on Michael Dods colt who did show little on his debut but now switches to the All-Weather which should very much suit on pedigree. Worth a chance today.

8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral

This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more.

The trainer & jockey combo of Burke/Vaughan enjoys quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.

The race looks open, with the three year old’s surely having a good crack at it, particularly feather weight Cooperess looks interesting, though didn’t look like winning in a similar race off an even lower weight the other day.

Betting Talk, United Kingdom

Wednesday’s Summer Racing

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The summer is firmly on and this blog is dawdling along… time, where is the time? Today is a bit of time. My increasingly statics based approach to betting does slowly but steadily reap benefits. So I used the free minutes this morning to dig out some interesting horses for today’s racing.

But despite this being the time of the year for horses proving their worthiness on the holy green turf, the ‘charm’ of sand racing is never far away. Kempton offers some bread and butter material today. I like it.

I might update this post later on in the afternoon with one or more contenders… so keep coming back if interested….

7.10 Kempton: Curriculum @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

Very interesting contender for William Haggas who has a 42% strike rate this season in Kempton maiden races and a 70%+ place strike rate over the last five years here in this type of races – so one would assume Curriculum is reasonably fit going to post today.

The gelding showed promise in soft conditions at Doncaster last year and is open to a significant amount of improvement over this longer trip.

8.20 Yarmouth: Fleeting Dream @ 2/1 Ladbrokes

This rather well bred three year old filly of Dream Ahead should be very hard to beat on her handicap debut, dropping down to five furlongs which is very likely to suit down to the grounds.

Haggas seems to find always the right opportunities for this type of horse and while Fleeting Dream didn’t show much in three maiden races, she showed plenty of speed the last time in a hot race. Her opening mark of 56 could be lenient.

3.30 Bath: Forecaster 11/8 Betfred

This looks seemingly a wide open race but closer inspection shows this is an excellent opportunity for 3yo Forecaster. The slight step up in trip should bring out further improvement after two subsequent placed efforts this season. First time cheekpieces can be a big help too.

Michael Bell has a near 50% strike rate this year and consistently over time with his horses tried in this type of headgear. I suspect Forecaster will be able to find enough improvement to beat this very ordinary lot today.

4.00 Bath: Hope Is High @ 8/1 Coral

She improved dramatically from her maidens last month on her handicap debut at Yarmouth, though got a bit a rough ride. Once in the clear she ran on strongly to finish an unlikely looking runner-up. There is more to come and a 2lb hike in the mark isn’t enough to stop her to go close. I believe the slower ground will her here.

Jockey booking is interesting, as the Gordon/Berry combo has proved very successful this year, albeit the sample size is on the small side. Still, her 3lb allowance look significant given the 60% strike rate these two enjoy.

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Tuesday Selections: Catterick

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

1.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

You can discount half of the field on ground concerns pretty easily, and given the nature of the track, usually favouring handy sorts, it brings the list of contenders down to a handful.

I like to go with a type likely to act in the soft conditions, has form on this strange course and is sure to be up with the pace. Multellie jumps out in this field at 9/1, given he has excellent form to offer, if we forgive him his latest run at Chester from a wide draw in better class.

Down here in class 4, he has a handy draw, won really well at Ripon three back, and confirmed his well-being subsequently with another bold bid here at Cattrick over 12f in a very hot race. He’s on a high mark but with conditions sure to suit he’s overpriced in this field.

Multellie @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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2.15 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Plenty in with a chance here but I’m very much drawn to Woody Bay who drops back to his preferred 7f trip as well as in class and looks still on a pretty good mark. He won here over CD last month in excellent style, beating two well handicapped rivals in second and third. He followed up with a strong performance in a hot Class 2 Handicap subsequently, but was found out for the 9f trip when last seen.

With his course and distance form and the soft ground sure to suit, as well as recent forms all franked, he is a likely sort to go close and certainly overpriced. Only concern is the wide draw obviously. He will need to overcome it somehow. If he can get a good break and is right up with the pace early on he will have a great chance.

That’s the obvious question mark as the race may be already lost after the start. I’m prepared to take the risk as even that factored into the price doesn’t justify 8’s in my mind.

Woody Bay @ 8/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Saturday Betting: Cheltenham

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Nice drift for Dark Spirit today, who won nicely at 11/1 in the end, storming up the hill for her inexperienced rider in the saddle. A relieve, a nice, big winner – finally again! It didn’t continue that way. Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. He was beaten for speed in the end.

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn’t quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Tuesday Selections

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2.20 Windsor: Class 5 Nursery, 6f

Recently gelded and with first time cheek-pieces I feel Another Boy deserves another chance. He drops in class as well has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent, albeit far from exciting performances. He third placed effort in a three runner race lto doesn’t look exciting at all. though it came against two pretty decent rivals and the form looks good. The race wasn’t run to suit him, yet he stayed on to be beaten only two lengths after all.

A return to a bigger field should help. And if the gelding op and headgear have any sort of positive effect, he should go close today – although the draw isn’t the kindest. He seems a bit overpriced nonetheless.

Another Boy @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Horrible race with not much recent form on offer. However Vastly makes plenty of appeal here, dropping in class and stepping up in trip after two very respectable efforts on the All-Weather over 1m. The gelding didn’t appear to like Chelmsford lto and was badly outpaced, though was game and genuine in the closing stages in a race that looks not too shabby on paper in terms of how the form has worked out since.

Vastly has won over course and distance in the past, albeit pre-tapeta times. He’s done that in February 2014 of a mark off 68, had since then only four more starts, the last two respectable, as mentioned. He’s 6lb lower rated at the moment, so that gives him an excellent chance in this field to find back to form.

A decent 3b claimer has been booked for the ride, which adds to the arguments pro Vastly here. If he can only improve slightly for the last two outings and the trip, he’s gonna go very close.

Vastly @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Sunday Selections – York

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Newmarket July Course

2.30 York: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Two three year old fillies stand out in this field: Distain is the first one. She didn’t quite stay the 1m 5f trip at Chester the last time, but now dropped back to 10f she could be a real force. I was impressed with her change of gear when getting off the mark at Redcar in a maiden on only her second start. 10f here at flat York in a big handicap with a hot pace, she could be ideally suited and better than her current rating off 80.

Bottom weight Pamushana is equally one who could have easily more to offer. She is on a potentially very lenient mark after following up on an ultra impressive maiden success with a strong 3rd place in a better class at Nottingham last month. She looks big and scopey, apparently progressing well this season and wit handy weight and draw a big chance in this race.

Pamushana @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
Distain @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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5.10 York: Class 4 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 4f

His most recent Newmarket performance was too bad to be true, so one may forgive Endless Credit that poor run and better judge him on his excellent runner-up performances before. If he could run to that sort of form, he’ll be in with a big chance, given that he has the perfect draw for his positive running style.

A mark off 69 seems high enough, though; yet seen in the contest of the jockey booking, seems less of a problem. Young Fitzpatrick claims valuable 5lb and is very much worth every single pound. He’s riding out of his skin at the moment and is clearly a talented young jockey – that’s a bonus in this type of race.

Endless Credit @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Sunday Selections – Brighton

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3.50 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Likely softish ground is an unknown for most in this field and could be a big issue for any of the three year olds. None of them makes much appeal from a handicapping point of view either, so I feel it’s worth to take a punt on bottom weight Trulee Scrumptious.

The six year old mare won with plenty in hand two starts ago at Newmarket. She has also form on soft ground and stays ten furlongs truly, which is at Brighton, particularly when there is some juice in the ground. She was poor in her last two starts and has to produced a career best – but may well do so with the possibility of getting a soft lead here.

Trulee Scrumptious @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handica , 1m 4f

The old boy Foxhaven is likely to encounter his preferred conditions tomorrow. 12f with a bit of cut in the ground will slow things down and ensure emphasis is on stamina in the finish. He didn’t have too much racing this season but wasn’t disgraced when last seen in June at Kempton.

He slipped another 2lb down the mark, though. With the 5lb claim of his rider, he could be seriously well handicapped if he can find back to something of his former best. Back in September 2014 he still managed to finish in the money of a mark off 68. So he’s a fair chance to go close in this race.

Foxhaven @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Brighton: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 1m

Double Czech should be clear favourite here given that Queen Aggie, who currently heads the market, has never got this trip before and will find it tough to change this in softish confitions. Double Czech, though, will very much appreciate the underfoot conditions, though the trip is borderline at a testing track like Brighton.

However he is down to an excellent mark, 1lb below when he won a mile race at Chepstow earlier this year, plus has the handy 5lb allowance of a good apprentice in the saddle. He should go close.

Double Czech @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win