Finally we have the chance to see Hit It A Bomb hitting the race track as a three year old.! The most impressive winner of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – that’s now almost ten months ago – had plenty of problems early on this season and missed several assignments.
But Aiden O’Brien said the son of War Front is ready to go today to start of his campaign in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes at Leopardstown.
Question mark are all over the place though: did he train on? Has he retained his brilliant turn of foot despite the long lay-off? Is he fit enough to beat a more or less competitive, albeit given his own potential class, rather ordinary looking bunch of mostly well seasoned horses?
Here’s hoping. Hit It A Bomb produced one of the most memorable performances of recent time when landing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – from the widest draw having to finish from an impossible position turning for home…. it was spectacular!
I suspect there is plenty enough left to work on for this very first step back into racing action today; as always with O’Brien horses, bigger targets loom large.
All I want to see today is him having trained on, finishing well, without getting a hard race. Victory is not necessarily the main objective here.
That obviously opens the door for someone else to step up and land a nice paycheck. Custom Cut, given he’s only 2lb rated below Hit It A Bomb, looks most likely do be the one benefiting from a potential lack of fitness of the favourite.
He hasn’t really show all that much this season though, certainly he’s not in the same form as all the years before, so whether he can still run to his current rating of 114 is questionable.
It’s not a betting race for me at all, but Jim Bolger can have horses ready after a break, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tribal Beat, last years second in the Killavullan Stakes, to run a big race here.
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Thursday Selections:
Two winners yesterday. Those were balsam for the ill-treated betting soul. Northern Thunder made most of a lack of pace in his race at Kempton and held on gamely, whereas it seemed the penny dropped for Sea The Stars son Space Mountain at Beverly.
1.50 Beverly: Street Jazz@ 11/1 Skybet
3.40 Salisbury: Bess of Hardwick @ 4/1 Ladbrokes
ONLY seven go to post, the Derby winner isn’t here, the 2000 Guineas winner isn’t here, yet only two individuals can boast Group 1 success in their CV…. this years Coral Eclipse is a slightly underwhelming affair, I have to say.
But the good thing is: potential superstar The Gurkha lines up in an attempt to make amends for what has to be regarded as a wasted chance when he was beaten in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot roughly a fortnight ago.
The Gurkha went off odds-on in the Group 1 contest, though endured not the best of luck in-running and maybe, only maybe Ryan Moore didn’t have his brightest moment either.
Whatever, it’s the past – the here is now. Aiden O’Brien’s inmate, a son of Galileo (how could it be any different?!) stormed last month to global attention in the Poule D’Essai Poulains – the French 2000 Guineas – where he blew his rivals away with a turn of foot that looked out of this world. Can he do the same today?
Absolutely! This lad is massive talent! Stepping up to 1m 2f should not be a problem at all, if not even bring out further improvement, and the softish ground is no trouble either. As a three year old he receives some handy amount of weight in a race without a clear danger from the brigade of older horses. Right?
Probably. Though the top rated horse is the four year old My Dream Boat. On official ratings The Gurkha has to find two pounds with the winner of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. Trained by Clive Cox, My Dream Boat clearly ran to a career best at Royal Ascot, helped by the soft ground that day. He’s a real mud lover, without a shadow of a doubt and will hope Sandown retains as much rain in the turf as possible.
In my view he is clearly the biggest threat to The Gurkha from the older horses, though whether he can give the weight away against a rival most likely to improve another couple of pounds – I find it hard to see.
Widely regarded as the biggest threat in the public opinion is Roger Charlton’s Time Test. What’s in his favour is the relative freshness. He only had one start this season – a successful one, here at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes, a Group 3 event. It’s fair to say he may come on for the run and remains with potential to improve a bit for age, now as a four year old.
That says, he’s yet to prove himself on the highest level and probably is better suited to a fast surface. Yes, he does handle cut in the ground, but given a career best is required today, the ground is a worry.
Godolphin’s Hawkbill was a fine winner of the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s unbeaten in his last five starts, so obviously on the up and could still have more to offer. He relishes today’s conditions and his prominent racing style should see him in a good position when it matters most.
We can’t completely rule out Western Hymn. The “senior” in the race, he’s ultra consistent and usually puts his best foot forward here at Sandown. So it would not be a surprise to see him finish in the money. Still, something dramatic would have to happen for him to win.
Verdict: Whenever I side with a hot odds-on favourite, it usually is the kiss of death for the well fancied horse. Nonetheless I can’t look past The Gurkhatoday and find it surprising to been able to snap up evens odds. He’s more like a 4/6 chance in my book.
Prediction:
1. The Gurkha
2. Hawkbill
3: My Dream Boat
A historic day for Irish trainer Dermot Weld, who celebrated a first Derby success thanks to his brilliant Sea The Stars colt Harzand, who followed in the footsteps of his prominent daddy, who himself now sired a first Epsom Derby winner!
It was not a trouble free preparation, though. In fact it was touch and go in the morning whether Harzand would take his chance in the most famous flat race and the ultimate call was actually with Pat Smullen cantering down to the start! He went into the starting gate, thankfully, as we know the outcome by now.
Under a masterful ride by jockey Pat Smullen – also for him a first Epsom Derby success – the inexperienced colt was patiently guided through the field; Smullen settled him in a good position somewhere in midfield and rode with a cool head when gaps didn’t open up immediately in the home straight.
Harzand ultimately fend off a late surge by favourite US Army Ranger. He dug deep and found another gear when it really mattered. Given all the foot problems beforehand, it was a brilliant performance!
And The Ranger, whom I’ve been so keen on? Finished runner-up with plenty of credit. He clearly proved to be a classy individual. However it didn’t go to plan for him. Ever so slightly, yet decisively, he missed the break and didn’t seem to travel particularly well early on, subsequently lost every chance to be in a decent position. In a race where small margins can be the deciding factor about victory and defeat this was surely a tough ask to overcome.
Good Ryan, Bad Ryan?
After the less than ideal start, Jockey Ryan Moore took it easy on US Army Ranger, settled in rear, relaxed the horse and let him find his rhythm. Commentator Richard Hoiles called it during the race: “Us Army Ranger is given time” – which was the only real option in my mind. He was still third last turning for home but Moore gradually edged to the outer of the field to get a run. Gaps didn’t open for him and only inside three furlongs Ranger finally got into the clear.
Winner Harzand was already flown towards home at this stage, still Ranger produced a stunning change of gear and loomed large with 200 yards to go. But the big effort to make up so much ground in such a short space of time showed its effect and he ran out of gas in the final furlong.
Ryan Moore has come under scrutiny for his ride on US Army Ranger. As often in this game, opinions are divided. In my view this was a class ride by the world’s best jockey. He proved, despite defeat, why he’s simply the best. In difficult circumstances he gave his mount the best possible chance to finish as close as possible. Not always is a winning ride a good one and a losing ride a bad one.
Sure, it wasn’t the game plan to travel as far back as second or third last for large parts of the race. But inexperienced Ranger didn’t help the cause when he bottled the start. What other option did Moore haven than let the horse find his stride, relax him and try to preserve as much energy as possible? Hustling him up to make up ground would have been detrimental to Ranger’s chance, in my mind.
The fact that gaps didn’t open up when Moore (and I as a punter) would have wanted it is not his fault. These things happen in racing. Imagine the gap would open up over 4f out though – Ranger cruises through it, and maybe wins the race. You know what happens then? Moore’s going to be the hero!
It wasn’t to be. The gap didn’t open, Moore had to delay and ask Ranger for an almighty effort when the road was finally clear. In the end it was all a bit too much for US Army Ranger who still finished second – what is in fact credit to his class and the one of his rider.
In the end inexperience cost him, and for that reason it’s fair to say the best horse on the day won. Harzand was more professional, mastered the difficult test Epsom provides and is without a doubt a really good winner of the world’s most famous flat race.
Minding and the Beauty of Racing
These last two days were yet again a wonderful reminder why I personally love flat racing so much. Yes, it was a disappointment not to back the winner in the Derby with US Army Ranger, still I enjoyed the coverage, the races leading up to the big one, Postponed’s brilliant success in the Coronation Cup, the joy and emotions on Weld & Smullen’s faces after they won their first Derby….
However it was Friday’s performance by Minding in the Oaks that is the standout of the two days – she simply blew me away! When I saw her overcoming all the trouble in the Oaks, when I saw her blistering turn of foot, changing gears so smoothly like Formula 1 cars usually do, her wonderful attitude and enthusiasm – it was something else!
The speed, the beauty, the power, the elegance – it’s what flat racing is all about and it’s epitomized in this dramatically good looking and at the same time incredibly talented filly Minding. Her Oaks performance was one of those special racing moments you have to see to believe.
And no, I didn’t back her. It has nothing to do with money whatsoever. I’m just grateful for having witnessed her performance for the pure love of the sport. And on that front isn’t it wonderful to know our sport is yet again blessed with brilliant talents like Minding, Harzand and US Army Ranger? I love it!
“Everyone is knocking this horse, but they shouldn’t ….If we hadn’t have ran Port Douglas, US Army Ranger would have been an eight-length winner and would be a very short price for the Derby.”
Interesting words from Aiden O’Brien the morning after the Chester Vase when assessing the performance of his main Derby hope US Army Ranger, who, up until 24 hours earlier, was a rather foolish short priced favourite for the Epsom Derby – based solely on reputation, good hope and a single – albeit impressive – maiden win.
This verbal endorsement from Mr. O’Brien carries some weight though, doesn’t it? Sure, we hear it often enough from these connections; the “best we ever had” slogan comes all too easy over their lips, as critics rightly point out. Yet, this time it stands in a different light, I feel. It goes deeper.
These words and the overall reaction coming out of the Ballydoyle camp after what was widely regarded as an underwhelming success of US Army Ranger at Chester, felt more like wounded pride to me. How dare you doubting this horse? How dare you doubting our judgement?
They really seem to believe in this lad. And they are vocal about it. So no surprise to hear Joseph O’Brien adding: “He (US Army Ranger) shouldn’t be able to do what he’s doing (at this stage of his career). He could be really good.”
But then, jumping on the defence of US Army Ranger is not necessary. What does AOB care about the nagging doubts many in the world of racing have about his star colt? Let the race in June speak for itself! But that’s not what’s happening here. Team Ballydoyle wants everyone to know how much they like US Army Ranger.
Maybe that is because they have largely an underwhelming crop of three year old colts on their hands this season. Though, that might be better judged at the end of the season, given all those tremendously well bred colts walking around the paddock at County Tipperary every morning. Least we forget sometimes these horses just need a bit of time and suddenly appear to improve dramatically from one run to the next.
So why are they pushing this lad so much? All hot air? All calculated risk? All in the name of commercial success for the future stallion US Army Ranger? Yes, maybe.
Steep Learning Curve
Plenty of different opinions have been voiced in the aftermath of the Chester Vase. US Army Ranger scrambled home against stable mate Port Douglas, prevailing by a narrow margin. The ride on the runner-up came under scrutiny subsequently. Why did Seamie Heffernan not shut the door on the inside, why did he not go for his whip in the final furlong? All legit questions.
But the answer to those questions – does it actually matter in the grand scheme of things? What would have changed if Port Douglas would have prevailed by a short head? I reckon not much, expect for those who were the unlucky folks with a wager on him in the Chester Vase.
What this race did change was the general perception of US Army Ranger. Bookies, punters and racing experts alike clearly cooled off; three minutes was all it took, the sexy horse was not so sexy any more.
US Army Ranger himself won’t care much about all the fuzz. For him it was all about experience. Experience he doesn’t have much. He didn’t race as a juvenile. In that sense history is against him. A Derby winner unraced as a two year old is not all that common.
That aside there was plenty to like about his debut run at the Curragh in April. He was clearly green and probably didn’t really know he was in a race. Under a hands and heels ride he prevailed with plenty in hand, which was probably no more than a good workout. To step up from there right into a Group 3 at the odd track that Chester is, with huge crowds as far the eye can see – it must have been a bit of a culture shock for him.
Mind, the Chester Vase was probably not that strong a race quality wise, with only stable mate Port Douglas a serious rival. This Port Douglas, an experienced horse, with five runs under his belt at the time, already a Group 2 winner, provided a first stern test. US Army Ranger didn’t pass with flying flags. He passed with merit.
It is fair to assume he would have learned more in this one race at this strange, noisy, crowded, ever turning Chester track than he would have in two or three races elsewhere. That is the benefit of taking horses over there. And that’s the reason why Aiden O’Brien loves to bring his top prospects over there. They learn allot and he learns allot about them.
Did US Army Ranger show enough to be a real Derby contender, though? It always depends on the perspective. On the pure visual impact of the performance and on what was in the race rating wise he probably did not. If you believe he can learn and improve big time for this run, which – one shouldn’t forget – was only his second career start – he probably is one.
Now actuality has caught up with me – the essay above may be slightly outdated, given I wrote it the day after the Chester Vase and just forgot to publish it. But then has so much changed in the meantime?
To an extend, yes. There wasn’t much talk about USAR in recent weeks, and the fact that Aiden O’Brien saddles four other stable mates on D-day doesn’t scream confidence. Yet I stick to what I said and felt back then. He’s the one I want, he’s the one they all have to beat.
What about the opposition?
Something between underwhelming and decent. John Gosden’s Dante winner Wings Of Desire is clearly talented. He beat Aiden O’Brien’s Deauville in a tight finish. It remains to be seen what this form is worth. For all what it is now it doesn’t look all that impressive, though Wings Of Desire is certain to improve for going back up in trip.
Never underestimate Ande Fabre. His experienced Sea The Stars colt Cloth Of Stars is two from two this year. He never tried the trip before but should be fine. I rate him the main danger in this field.
Lingfield Derby Trial winner Humphrey Bogart appears to be a one paced individual and was probably lucky to win anyway, given third placed Across The Stars was full of running but never got a chance in the closing stages. He’s the better prospect of the two, and Kieren Fallon’s glooming words are to note.
Hazard landed the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown. He’s an exciting prospect, the form works out well and he is one of the more likely candidates to be in the shake-up, though has to prove his stamina over the Derby trip. A slightly underwhelming Idaho finished runner-up in the Ballysax. Clearly talented, but this big horse may not be ideally suited to Epsom I fear.
The Stoute camp really likes their leading prospect Ulysses. An impressive maiden win last time out, is still a dramatic step up in class. Irish Derby Trial winner Moonlight Magic has at least Group form in the book, and those gutsy types trained by Jim Bolger can often outrun their price tag.
Quite a few people jumped on the Port Douglas bandwagon right after the Chester Vase. And it’s easy to see why. He’s a big price and you can argue he was at least the moral winner of the Chester Vase. His performance there must give him a fair shot at the Derby.
Some arguments against could be: that was his sixth career start – how much more has he to offer? And is he best as a fresh horse? His three strongest performances came either on his debut or after a break – though he’s been off since Chester and that might be enough.
Summary
Is the form of anyone in today’s Derby field so much better than what US Army Ranger has achieved? Not really if you ask me. But to cut a long story short: this years Derby shapes like an underwhelming renewal. Unless something steps up or blows us away on the day itself. Can US Army Ranger be the one?
Of course he can! Look, I loved his debut run, I believe he learned plenty at Chester and I believe in the words coming out of the Ballydoyle camp stating this guys is massively talented. Am I naive? Possibly.
I am also aware of the fact there are plenty of stark opinions out there contrary to anything I argue here. That’s fine. This game is in fact all about opinions. Often different opinions. It’s the salt in the soup. And admittedly, I’m getting it often enough wrong. With that I’m certainly not alone, though.
Still, at 13/2 it is hard for me to pass on US Army Ranger for all the mentioned reasons. If he is as good a horse as I hope he is, this certainly is a big price. Particularly if you take the reasons on board why Chester was less a disaster as many like to think.
Before a detailed look into the 1000 Guineas, let’s have a quick word about the first classic of the 2016 flat season. One could probably say the 2000 Guineas didn’t finish the way many would have foreseen it. Even though, hailing my own judgement, I called out Galileo Gold as a big runner as long as he handles the track. He clearly did!
Now, I still didn’t selected him to win, but that’s okay because as the world’s biggest Paco Boy fan I just get a thrill out of it solely on the emotional side of things. My beloved all-time favourite horse finally got his first Group 1 winner on the board as a sire. He stands for a small fee at Highclere Stud these days – this will hopefully see him getting some classy mares in the future.
Back to the 2000 Guineas winner, Galileo Gold. He didn’t have it all that easy from his draw, but Frankie gave him a peach of a ride. The horse travelled like a dream throughout and quickened in taking style. You got to be impressed! Next stop Derby? Maybe. Connections believe he could stay the much longer trip
I’m not in the same camp yet, have to see it to believe it. Let’s not forget Paco Boy himself was a star miler, but probably got the trip only because of the patience of his rider, Richard Hughes. In my book he was always a 7 furlong specialist, stretched out to the mile.
The red hot favourite Air Force Blue was brutally disappointing. “Probably overtrained” was the explanation from Aiden O’Brien. Maybe he simply didn’t trained on at all? I’ll give him another chance because in all fairness, when I saw him at the Curragh earlier this year, he looked like a bigger, stronger horse, ready to do some damage in top class company this year.
I loved the run of stable companion Air Vice Marshal. He ran a heck of a race and I expect him to come on dramatically for the run. Once he gets quicker ground I can see him definitely being up to win a big race this year.
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Preview: 1000 Gunieas
It’s the fillies’ turn today. The ground has dried out further – we’ve got genuinely good conditions at Newmarket. Again it’s a red-hot favourite from the Ballydoyle camp greeting from the top of the market: Minding.
And rightly so. On her two year old form you can’t oppose her. You can’t! A two-times Group 1 winner, ready to go on any ground, proven to get the trip as well as handling the Rowley Mile. A big, scopey filly, she looked super at the Curragh at the end of March too.
But we’ve seen it only 24h ago, that all can count for nothing. The performance today is what matters. And we don’t know whether she has improved over the winter until we see her showing it on the race track. Also, with these fillies, things are less straightforward than with the colts. I got to oppose her given her super short price-tag, even though I readily admit I may look foolish in a couple hours time.
What else’s in the race? 15 other fillies! A big field, and look no further for exciting opposition than Mark Johnston’s Lumiere. Winner of the Chevely Park Stakes, she’s got talent and speed but should also prove to have enough stamina to get the mile. Only thing is, her dam hasn’t produced anything of note yet.
Aiden O’Brien’s second and third string aren’t taken lightly. Ballydoyle – the filly – took longer than expected to hit full stride last season but finished the year on a high note landing a big Group 1 in France. She looked not quite as good as Minding when the two meat in the Moyglare, but it’s far from impossible that she’s able to turn the form around.
What I don’t like, and I said the same about Air Force Blue yesterday, is the tongue-tie, applied for the first time. There is often a reason for this, and it can be an indicator for some sort of a breathing problem. Doesn’t have to be, but can be and I’d be cautious.
Alice Springs is the least fancied of Aiden’s, though I like her allot! She was busy in the second half of 2015, a bit an unlucky runner-up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf but clearly talented, scopey frame and there wasn’t much wrong with her return earlier this month; a fair third at Leopardstown in a Guineas trial. In fact it looked a lovely pipe opener in my eyes.
That day, on bottomless ground, it was difficult to make up ground from behind so the bird was flown early on but Alice Springs stayed on nicely. The mile trip doesn’t pose any concern, but the good ground is something she’ll definitely like.
Nell Gwyn winner Nathra is an exciting prospect. She has a run under her belt, has clearly trained on and is open to further improvement. Plus I really loved the way she cruised through the field in the Nell Gwyn, gliding through like a hot knife through butter. But you wonder whether a hotly contested mile is a bit too far for her stamina wise?
The Nell Gwynn looks a key trial nonetheless. Robanne stayed on late in third after being pretty badly outpaced from over three furlongs out. She gives the impression of a filly crying out for a trip. Mix And Mingle was right there too, finished 4th but looked outpaced as well and very much laboured. Both don’t strike me as Guineas winners.
Jim Bolger had plenty of placed runners but no winners for quite some time now. He’s due to win one pretty soon. Can Turret Rocks be the one? She was a smart juvenile – winner of the Group 2 Marry Hill and runner-up to Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Her current rating puts her right in the mix here, although she’s certainly not a flashy type.
Whether French raider Midweek can transfer her best to drying Newmarket ground is debatable. I’d be concerned. Her best form came on very soft ground up until now. The same goes for Jet Setting. A fine winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas trial, though on heavy ground. Her only other win also came on a very deep surface.
I should mention speedy Zoffany daughter Illuminate. Already a multiple Group winner over 6f, she wasn’t disgraced at the Breeders Cup when stepping up to a mile. That day she seemed to hit a wall in the closing stages and I find it hard to see her getting the trip.
Verdict: On last years form it’s hard to look past Minding. But she is short enough to take her on, particularly with equally exciting stable mate Alice Springs, who certainly overpriced at around 20’s.
I do like Nathra a lot, though the drying ground and step up in trip is a concern and making a second selection here against the hot favourite I prefer the Bolger filly Turret Rocks. She probably gets further in time and seems very much one paced, but at the same time she’s tough and genuine and can outrun her price tag of 25/1.
The wintry weather of the last couple of weeks has hardly got me into the mood for flat racing. I went to Punchestown on Wednesday and was greeted with a mix of sleet and hail – but hey, here we are, the first classic of the new season right in front of us! Madness!!!
Ground wise it seems Newmarket has done pretty well. It’s good to soft with a dry day expected and given that the Rowley Mile dries up quickly, we can expect fair conditions.
That’s particularly important for red-hot Guineas favourite Air Force Blue. Sure, he’s won on yielding ground before, but he’s also a son of War Front so is probably best on decent ground. That says the conditions today won’t be an issue, I reckon.
What is slightly puzzling is the fact that he’s fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time. Aiden O’Brien has done similar with other good horses in the past, so it’s not necessarily a negative, however it may also imply there is some sort of issue with his breathing.
I personally am not a fan of tongue-ties; sure they don’t look nice on the eye, but – without knowing for a fact myself since I’m not a horse – horses generally don’t enjoy them is the saying from horsemen I trust.
Look, it’s probably all fine and well with him, the vibes are positive anyway and it’s just some assistance Aiden thinks Air Force Blue benefits from on the ground today. Given he’s the best horse in the race on all form we know, it is very hard, if not impossible to oppose him.
That says he is a short price. Rightly so, one can argue. Or not? You can never be quite sure if these beasts really train on until you see them race again. At 4/6 – or whatever he is right now, I’m prepared to take him on with something bigger.
SO: Who else can make a race of it? Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel must be in the discussion. He doesn’t mind cut in the ground and has improved nicely throughout his juvenile season. Truth told though, he was a bit lucky at Doncaster on the day. Whether the form flatters him or not, it leaves me with doubts.
Frankie and Hugo Palmer have been bullish about Galileo Gold. He was supposed to run in the French Guineas, but he’s been wintering and working so well, he’s been re-routed to Newmarket. I can see why. He looks bound to improve as a three year old and showed plenty of promise last season. He’s a son of my all-time favourite Paco Boy – he’ll run a fine if he handles the track.
Will Buratino get the mile? This precocious, speedy juvenile is not sure to have found much improvement over the winter. I find it hard to make a case for him, given he looks more like a sprinter without much scope and definite stamina doubts.
Much more of interest is recent Craven Stakes winner Stormy Antarctic. An excellent runner-up in the Group 1 Criterium International when last seen as a two year old, he looked mightily impressive landing the Craven a fortnight ago. He’s no mug but would clearly prefer the rain clouds to return. Drying ground is a slight concern.
Lightly raced Masaat finished second behind Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst. With a bit of improvement over the winter he should be right there when it matters, given he’s proven to handle this track – with the only question mark the trip. He’s to prove his stamina and I’m worried he’s not getting home.
Aiden O’Brien’s second string Air Vice Marshal is clearly an exciting prospect. Lightly raced, maybe not quite seen to best effect in the Superlative Stakes, he should develop into a nice three year old.The step up in trip is clearly in his favour, though whether the ground is fast enough for him to be seen to best effect is the big question mark.
Jim Bolger has proven in the past that he can get horses ready for the first classic. His Herald The Dawn, a full-brother to 2013 Guineas hero Dawn Approach, didn’t quite fulfill the early promise in the latter part of his juvenile season. But it’s fair to believe he could be a better three year old.
I like the fact that Ribchester has already a run under his belt this season, albeit I’m not sure what to make of it. Hanging badly in France earlier this month, he was subsequently demoted from second to fifth. The step up to a mile poses no problem for him, whether he is good enough is the question.
Verdict:It is probably not wise to oppose Air Force Blue, who looks the real deal on anything we know. He’s as short in the betting as he should be on all we know. However if you’re like me, trying to get these shorties beat, you can find some reasons to do so here. For me it’s the tongue-tie. I’m puzzled why this one would be applied if there isn’t a slight concern about his breathing.
From the bigger prices I’m intrigued by his stable mate Air Vice Marshal who cost a fortune as a yearling and could be much better than what we have seen from him as a two year old. This here might not be the race to see him to best effect, he may need the run and does probably need faster ground. At 40/1 he’s worth a shot nonetheless.
I’m stuck with Herrald The Dawn too. I punted him ante-post roughly eight months ago at 40/1. Doesn’t look all that smart today – it’s the same price you can get this morning. Shows this lad hasn’t improved in the expected way from the moment on I backed him. But as mentioned before there is good reason to believe he has scope to be better this year. The Guineas is his target and if he can find a couple of pounds – he will have to if he wants to feature – I can see him going close.
And they’re off! The 2016 Irish flat season is under way and it started with an excellent card and some promising performances on Sunday. Here’s a quick round-up of the day and some photos – Find a complete photo gallery here.
Promising Kick-Off: The first race of the new year was a 5f maiden, won by Mister Trader who made all and quickened nicely. Could be a nice type for the early 2yo races but he may not necessarily turn out to be best of this lot.
Callender in third travelled eye-catchingly well off the pace and had loads to do from his position, he wasn’t knocked over but finished with plenty of promise given first and second were the pace setters. He’s extremely well bred and could develop into a nice sprinter.
Cosy Club
A mentioning also for Cosy Club, the first So You Think son we’ve seen at a racetrack in Europe I believe.
Considering that the 5f trip is probably way too short, he travelled well enough actually, though it was obvious that he wasn’t quick enough when the pace quickened over 2f out.Subsequently he didn’t get the best of runs but also appeared to be green. It was a good debut nonetheless and he should improve once he steps up in trip.
New Star fo Bolger? The 6f maiden was won by an interesting Bolger newcomer in Stenographer. He cost $450.000 as a yearling and impressed physically as a big and scopey type. He was badly outpaced in the middle part of the race but stayed on strongly to get up on the line eventually.
He obviously needs further, given the visual evidence here in combination with his pedigree given he’s son of Distorted Humor and out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. Jim Bolger likes to introduce good ones at this very first meeting, so Stenographer is clearly one for the notebooks.
Stenographer
Upset the Group 3 Park Express Stakes:Nobody gave a toss about Queen Blossom. She was unfancied in the betting – though in my preview I called her out as a 20/1 value shot for the race – and travelled in rear of the field for most parts of the race.
Favourite Devonshire looked to have things his own way entering the final two furlongs, but then Queen Blossom worked her way through the field and made a fight out of it. The three year old filly eventually piped Devonshire on the line to land the big price. Surprising in a sense, but it has to be said in her two starts as a juvenile last year she already appeared to have some potential. It remains to be seen whether this was a fluke or if she can build on it, whereas runner-up Devonsire continues to find ways to get beaten over one mile.
Irish Guineas for Awtaad:There was some talk about the son of Cape Cross over the winter after he impressed in two starts as a juvenile. Then, a massive drift in the betting before the off of the Madrid Handicap on Sunday was a major worry. Did he not train on?
There was nothing to worry as the top weight made light work of his rivals in what looked a pretty good and deep race beforehand. He was simply too good for this lot, despite possibly still a bit light of fitness, as connections mentioned afterwards.
Awtaad really impressed me with the way he kicked clear against a good bunch of three year old’s and confirmed what I saw in the parade ring before. He looked a nice, athletic and scopey type. According to his trainer the Irish 2000 Guineas is the plan.
Sruthan’s Lincoln Romp: I didn’t fancy him, feeling a mile in soft ground with a big weight on his shoulders in a deep field may just stretch him, but I couldn’t have been more wrong. Sruthan in hands of Chris Hayes, slaughtered his rivals in the Irish Lincoln. Two furlongs out and you could count your chickens if you backed him, Hayes sat motionless in the saddle.
Sruthan romps home
Once the button was pressed, Sruthan stepped up a gear and romped home by 4 and half lengths to win the feature of day one. 11/4 favourite Ashraf finished down the field but was found to be wrong afterwards. It’s best to ignore this performance and to give him the benefit of the doubt. He could still develop into a a very good horse.
Intriguing 1m Maiden: The final race on the card shaped as quite a good race on paper and turned out to be exactly that. The winner Embiran looked extremely promising on his sole start in 2015, when he was unlucky not to beat a subsequent listed winner. He didn’t encounter any problems this time. He travelled like a dream until Smullen said “Go” – in a matter of strides the son of Sharmadal put the race to bed.
He’s nicely bred out of Group 3 winning mare Emiyna, and Dermot Weld said it shouldn’t be a problem to drop back to 7f for a bid of black-type in the Tetrarch Stakes in May.
The runner-up Stellar Mass makes a habit of bumping into the “one too good”. He was a one lengths beaten 4th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last season but still remains a maiden. He travelled very strongly here but was simply beaten by a better horse on the day. That says the son of Sea The Stars appears to have strengthen up over the winter and is not a lost cause.
Claudio Monteverdi
Eye-catcher of the day was Claudio Monteverdi. Aiden O’Brien’s inmate was well backed but met considerable in-running trouble at a crucial stage. Once in the clear he thundered home to finish an excellent fourth.
He finished similarly promising on his sole run last year and is one of the most exciting prospects for the new season. A full-brother to super filly Lush Lashes, he’s a a candidate for the Derby, no doubt. You can find far worse 40/1 ante-post shots.
I expect him to come on an awful lot for this pipe opener and look massively forward to seeing him next time because the more I watch the replay from Sunday, the better it gets.
Cook Islands a potential star: Another one for O’Brien I really look forward to see racing is Cook Islands. I loved what I saw from him in his two starts last year and he did impress me when working at the Curragh on Sunday. He looks to have strengthen up over the winter, is very athletic, though a bit a tricky character all the same.
Whether or not is was significant, but Pat Smullen was on board for the workout and you’d may want to think for a reason; and if it’s only for a feedback from one of the best in the business. Cook Islands may turn out to more like a French Derby type, one who could really excel over 10 furlongs.
Good morning world – the flat is back! Racing never sleeps but Cheltenham was yesterday, the Curragh is today. I’m genuinely excited, going into my fourth year as a Curragh member, a racetrack that is so fucked up that it’s actually great. It’s called charm, I guess. I mean, once the whole thing is revamped, will it still have the same old shabby character which I love so much? Maybe I’m the only one who’s going to miss those power cables waving frighteningly close over racegoers heads in the ever present wind.
Anyway, there’s at least one more year to enjoy it all in it’s full glory. And knowing the Irish by now, after living five years+ in the land of rain, I understand that timetable- and plans are generally nice things to have but nothing to obbey to. Sure, we do that bit different in Germany, but hey, if you don’t like it, you can right feck off! I’m not complaining – I like it exactly that way!
But what I try to say: while there is seemingly a timeline in place to complete the “new Curragh”, the likelihood of it starting on time, never mind the actual completion, is probably slim.
Whatever, that wasn’t the point I wanted to make. Point is: I’m excited. The flat is back! My love – I do like the jumps too – but I like fast horses just a bit more.
The Curragh opener looks pretty decent. Three fair maiden races – some nice types where unveiled here over the last couple of years – quite intriguing handicaps, particularly the 1m one for three year olds with a market leader who’s got an entry for the Derby. The Irish Lincoln is as massive a field as you can get and quite a deep race too. The first pattern race of the new season brings some unexposed and more experienced fillies together. And that all on soft ground – how could it be any different?! So let’s have a look:
2.10 – 5f Maiden:Jim Bolger won this one on a number of occasions in the past, most notably with Dawn Approach. But the year before his Whip Rule was successful, and that is noteworthy because Intensely Focussed hails from the same family and is therefore not surprisingly the favourite here.
Other individuals to keep an eye on are Terrific Feeling for trainer Michael O’Callaghan, who won this last year. This son of Sir Prancealot has a bit of speed on his side, so could go well. Kieren Fallon is on board. He’s the retained rider of the O’Callaghan yard this season. Prendergast’s Tawaleef and Weld’s Tilly Trotter can go close.
2.40 – 6f Maiden: I’m most intrigued by Jim Bolger trained Stenographer who cost a staggering $450.000 as a yearling. Could be the right type for this race. Though it’s interesting that Richard Fahey brings over the 90 rated Paddy Power, who’s got some fine maiden form from to his name. Also an intriguing contender is The Moore Factor who finished runner-up at Galway with plenty of promise on his sole start.
3.15 – 6f Handicap: Open enough race where favourite Laganore has excellent form in the book yet appears short enough in the betting given he drops markedly in trip and is going to race on really soft ground for the first time.Richard Fahey’s Patrick is an intriguing runner if he acts on the ground.
For a huge price I like to call out Deeds Not Words. Bottom of the weighs, races off a nice low mark, but should enjoy the return to 6 furlongs and has won on soft ground before. Far from disgraced in his last starts at Dundalk. 20/1 is huge.
3.50 – 1m Park Express Stakes:Fair to say Devonshire is the one to beat. She sets a high standard given her 3rd place in last years 1000 Guineas. Her win record isn’t all that positive though. In fact she never won over a mile, though the going is to her advantage.
Joailliere hasn’t been seen since she bombed out in the Irish 1000 Guineas. However she looked very talented when winning a Gowran Park maiden on her debut and she might be the type that gets better with age.
Such a late bloomer could be Aiden O’Brien’s Fluff as well. She’s had only one career start, as she produced a stunning turn of foot at Navan last year. She can be anything but is certainly an exciting. prospect. At 6/1 I like her a lot.
From the bigger prices I feel you can’t fully rule out Queen Blossom. Lightly raced, she looked a scopey sort last year, who appreciates cut in the ground. She surely showed some promise in her two starts.20/1 is too big.
4.25 – 7f Handicap: An intriguing contest with exciting Awtaad leading the betting. The son of Cape Cross looked excellent when winning a 7f maiden last season and subsequently was talked up as a potential Derby horse. In fact he has an entry for the big one in June, so it’s slightly surprising to see him starting his campaign in a handicap.
Albeit it’s a deep one which provides a really tough test. Top weight Awtaad won’t have it all his own way here. Johnny Murtagh’s Newsman is a nice Makfi colt, whereas Ger Lyons’s Roderic O’connor gelding Mint Chai is anotherone worth mentioning.
The biggest challenge could come from a filly though. It took Verbosity a while but the penny finally dropped at Cork in October on her handicap debut. In soft conditions she was able to produce a stunning change of gear and her revised mark is probably on the lenient side. She looks like a filly that’ll do better with age anyway. At 9/1 she’s the one I put up against the classy favourite.
4.55 – 1m Irish Lincoln: A hot renewal where Dermot Weld’s Ashraf looks the class act. The four year old is still unexposed but looked a Group winner in the making last season. Although a mark of 97 is quite a tough task to overcome.
There are plenty of alternatives. Cailin Mor was an impressive winner when last seen in Cork and an 6lb raise might be lenient. Then there is last years Lincoln winner Onenightidreamed. Still lightly raced, he won both his starts in 2015, including the Lincoln and followed up with a Group 3 success. He loves the soft ground but has a huge mark to overcome. Nonetheless at 11/1 he’s a tick overpriced in my book.
Two big prices I also like are Vivat Rex and Lady Giselle. The latter one is 4lb out of the weights but is a real soft ground horse who has a pretty good record over 1m too. Vivat Rex in contrast isn’t quite sure to appreciate the going but is generally unexposed on turf and drops to a fair mark after a pipe opener at Dundalk for new connections earlier this month. Both are 40/1 shots.
5.25 – 1m Maiden: Could we see some future stars in this field? Favourite Embiran could be one. He finished extremely eye-catchingly on his debut and sole start in 2015. Aiden O’Brien’s Bravery is not one to underestimate. He ran on well in a 7f maiden when runner-up behind Awtaad. He looked green but clearly talented that day.
Stable mate Claudio Monteverdi was absolutely clueless on his debut last year but shaped very well in the finish and might be an even better prospect than Bravery I feel. Stellar Mass sets a good standard as he was only a lengths beaten 4th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last season.
The competitiveness of this race is obvious, so is the almighty task which Fields Of Athenry faces. The 3 year old colt has to defy a handicap mark as high as none before has won from in a British Handicap from. In addition he has been allocated the widest possible draw. A big negative for a front-runner.
For all those reasons Fields Of Athenry has drifted from 6/1 out to 11/1 over the last couple of days. This price is too big in my book, though, and I become quite interested in this smart Leger contender. Why? It’s easy to see why. He is lightly raced, has potentially more improvement left in him, and despite a high mark, profits from the weight for age allowance as well as enjoys a handy 5lb claim from talented Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle.
One could have only have been impressed with his last two wins in Listed and Group 3 company. This lad has no problem to stay the distance and is one of the rare talent who can actually quicken from the front. He did this most impressively in the Listed Challenge Stakes at Leopardstown last month. More is required here today, it’s a much stronger field, but rated at 119, he is the class act.
He will have to be a genuine Leger contender if he wants to overcome his big mark today – I feel he has a good chance to do that. The wide draw is a problem, but he can be able to get across soon and track the pace. At 11/1 I’m rather with him than against him.
No, that wasn’t the most enjoyable day at the Curragh yesterday. No luck with my selections; in addition the lashing rain, wind and not enough bartenders in the members bar…. nonetheless it was good to be there to see the star that is Jack Hobbs. It was only appropriate that he produced a magical performance to win the 150th Irish Derby.
What’s on the tab today? Of course the Pretty Polly Stakes. A deep field for this years renewal, maybe an even better race than the Irish Derby? A bit disappointing that the Group 3 International Stakes attracted only three runners; in general it is a quality day of racing, though.
3.20 Curragh: Handicap (60-90), 7f
I would duly expect Aiden O’Brien’s Cenotaph to show dramatic improvement for the drop in trip. This War Front son has pace but didn’t stay 10f the other day. He’s potentially on a lenient mark. But this is very much reflected in the short price, and therefore I’m pting for a bit of value, which is to find in another potentially well handicapped horse.
Doc Holliday is probably not the most prolific horse but he drops to a handy mark today. He wasn’t disgraced in two starts on the All-Weather this year, although a mile seems to stretch his stamina. That says his 1½ fourth in a ultra competitive 1m Handicap here at the Curragh last October rates extremely strong form.
The drop to 7 furlongs is today seems perfect. He has been successful over course and distance last season of a 1lb lower mark. But with the apprentice allowance of 5lb in hand, he’s certainly well in at the weights.
Doc Holliday @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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3.55 Curragh: Grangecon Stud Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 6f
An exciting and hot race for juvenile fillies. The first four in the market are all top class prospects. David Wachman’s Most Beautiful made a big impression at Naas the other day when beating subsequent Norfolk Stakes winner Waterloo Bridge. He’s pacey and may try to make all.
Never underestimate Richard Hannon’s two year olds; his Great Page looks an exciting individual indeed. Same can be said about Miss Katie Mae. Trainer Ger Lyons is particularly sweet on her.
Don’t understimate Miss Elisabeth. Probably not quite as sexy as the other three fillies, she was a cheep purchase and hasn’t the impressive looks; she could be the real deal nonetheless.
I loved the way she beat the boys the last two times. On her debut at Fairyhouse, cool as a cucumber going through the narrowest of gaps. And impressive the next time, when despite missing the break and giving loads of ground away, she was still able to produce a stunning turn of foot to win easily. It’s excellent form, given that the runner-up did beat Royal Ascot winner Washington Dc earlier this year…
So, while I find it difficult to split the four mentioned fillies, the prices dictate my decision. On that basis it’s Miss Elisabeth who is overpriced here.
Miss Elisabeth @ 7/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win
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Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies’ Group 1), 1m 2f
In short: I struggle to see how Legatissimo can be beaten if things go normal. If she isn’t over the boil after being on the go for while, there are no excuses today and she’ll win. She is by far the best horse in the race. As the impressive 1000 Guineas winner and unlucky runner-up in the Oaks, the drop to 10f will be ideal, in fact it is probably her optimum trip.
Irish 1000 Guineas heroine Pleascach looks not quite in the same league, and didn’t have much time to recover from Royal Ascot, anyway. It’s a tough ask. Diamondsandrubies shouldn’t be quick enough over this trip.
From the older horses, of course rapidly improving Brooch is an exciting rival. She could be Group 1 class, but may struggle to give an awful lot of weight away to the other three year olds, in particular Legatissimo. That should decisive in the end.
Legatissimo @ 13/8 – 10pts Win
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5.00 Curragh: Handicap (3YO plus), 5f
Progressive Kimbay gets the nod in this ultra competitive sprint handicap. This filly is clearly on the upward this year. She didn’t quite get home on her seasonal debut her at the Curragh over 6f but didn’t make any mistake subsequently when dropped to fife furlongs at Tipperary.
She has a 100% record over this trip (4/4) and might be able to pull out a bit more once again in order to overcome a new career highest mark.
Kimbay @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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5.30 Curragh: Curragh Cup (group 3), 1m 6f
Favourite Forgotten Rules takes all the beating over this trip which will suit better than Royal Ascot last week. The overnight rain will have helped his cause too, as quick ground is not what he wants. But it’s drying once again today, so that is a slight concern as well the hard race he had only last week.
Bondi Beach looks the biggest danger. He has a fair chance to improve for this new trip which he is entitled to stay. Still very lightly raced, he is open to any kind of progress. He was unlucky when last seen at Leopardstown in a Listed event over 12f as he didn’t get a clear run locked on the inside rail.
But only on his third ever career start today, he deserves a shot at this Group 3. I feel he’s a bit of a price against the red hot favourite – too big a price to ignore.
Bondi Beach @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win
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6.00 Curragh: Handicap (60-90), 1m 2f
Maskoon hasn’t exactly been in sparkling form this year but he looks seriously well handicapped today judged on his best. He tries 10f for a second time in his life, a trip he should stay on pedigree, although he found 12f too far and 1m with big weights too fast.
So today’s test might be inch perfect, given he is now down to a mark off 83 plus the additional advantage of a 5lb claimer in the saddle. he was a strong third off 92 in a big Curragh handicap last season and showed already some form off 88 this year.
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