I guess I’m in a world of pain from a betting perspective, once again. Feels like forever, over the last few months. I’ll take it. It’ll change, of course, as it always does.
Greatgardian 10/11. Golden Rainbow 9/10. The latter one another “masterclass” by Paul Mulrennan. I said it in my preview there’s every chance with this man on board at this track to see the scenario play out exactly as it did.
I’d love to see the stats for jockeys who ride horses that start slowly or awkwardly. PM would surely be top of the list. Especially on the All-Weather.
I can’t catch the man on a going day, that’s for sure. I can’t complain, I knew what I get into. Still annoying, especially on a long losing run, when you back the non-trier at these prices. It is what it is. Move on, hopefully today turns out to be a better one.
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5.15 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
Ideal Guest could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead as the pace map suggests it could materialise for the 4-year-old gelding here today.
He ran extremely well the last two times at this track over 6 and 7 furlongs. I liked his penultimate CD effort especially:
That day he led the field but was always closely followed. Put under severe pressure from 2f out, nonetheless he kept going and fought back gamely before surrendering late.
Followed up at the same venue with another strong front-running performance last week. Ideal Guest is clearly in good form, on a dangerous mark especially over 7f on decent ground in a race he could dominate from the front.
He’ll meet those conditions today and that makes me ignore his otherwise poor overall course (& distance) record at Yarmouth – 0/10, but it’s clear the track isn’t really a problem, as those last runs proved.
He’s best at Brighton, where he got an entry next week. There’s every chance he can go back to back, down to a mark of 60, that’s 2- and 10lb below his last two winning marks from last years summer. His best speed rating of 65 also gives him a significant chance, as I believe he isn’t far of that level right now.
There is little competition for the lead in this field. Ideal Guest may get away with a bit of an advantage that could be difficult to peg back wit the 7ln claim of Mikkel Mortensen another bonus.
I hoped for a better return to the ‘racing life’. 4 from 8 placed last week, some desperately close to win, but they didn’t get over the line, literally.
My current losing record stretches on for quite a while once again. This really is the most bizarre year of my “betting career”. Never had such dramatic swings before.
Not sure whether I’m changing or the game’s changing or whether this is normal variance that I was simply ‘lucky’ to avoid in such crassness in the past.
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6.45 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f
This looks an ideal opportunity for Greatgadian who was not disgraced over a mile when not getting the rub of the green last time at Ascot and who has steadily dropped in the ratings despite some good runs this year off much higher.
He caught my eye for the first time in April in the Lincoln after he enjoyed a pretty decent winter on the All-Weather. The subsequent Nottingham run is one I also rated highly, although two lesser efforts in between raise some questions.
On the other hand, a return to 10 furlongs will surely suit, so is the return to Chelmsford. Greatgadian is a dual course and distance winner.
He ran well earlier this year off 99 over this CD when third, only a lengths beaten, and you would hope with the good #2 draw to go from today, off 90, he should be hard to beat, if everything is right.
10pts win – Greatgadian @ 6/1
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9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Golden Rainbow showed a return to form at Weatherby the last time after a wind operation where he ran seriously well over 5.5f in a hot contest.
He tracked the pace closely in second place and pressed he leader from over 2f out. Possibly ahead at final furlong marker, eventually horses from further back got the better of him.
He drops in class and ever so slightly down to the minimum trip on the All-Weather, which should be his optimum. His AW record reads 9-2-3 and even better in Handicaps.
He’s a course and distance winner and has no issue with the stiff finish at Newcastle over this trip. He even runs well over 6 furlongs here. There is plenty of pace on, so that should suit and make it a fair race. He’s got early speed, shouldn’t be too far away and well placed when the race probably develops toward the centre.
That hopefully ensures that the low draw isn’t that big a negative as it can be over this CD sometimes.
Obviously with this jockey on board, at this track, you don’t always know whether you get a ‘real’ effort. I’ll trust this looks an ideal opportunity to score, though.
3.26 Deauville: Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, 1m
Wow, what a hot race. Probably the deepest Group 1 of the season, so far? The best of the Classic generation versus the best of the older milers. Exciting!
Twelve months ago the filly Inspiral won the race in a dramatic finish with a career-best performance. She’s here again and tries to defend her title. She has to put a shocking run in the Sussex Stakes behind, though.
If we forgive her the Goodwood run, which may have been simply down to the ground, her only other start this season came in the Queen Anne and was a massive given the circumstances.
The problem is: Deauville is likely to ride quite soft today. Softer than last year, and the fact remains Inspiral does her best work on a sounder surface. She may struggle in these conditions. And especially against some serious opposition, who do relish soft ground.
Good Guess ran to a 104 speed rating when he landed the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat recently. That’s brilliant form, but I doubt he gets home well enough against top-class opposition over a mile.
French Guineas winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi drops back to a mile after a gallant effort in the French Derby. He was caught up behind a wall of horses at the wrong time.
If he can take another step forward, which he has to in this field, he’s right in the mix. The fact he stayed on so strongly, makes me wonder whether a drop to a mile is the right move, though.
Light Infantry ran two huge races back-to-back in Group 1 company lately. A consistent colt, who at his very best can feature.
On last years form he’s got an obvious chance, given his superb runner-up performance in this very race. The ground doesn’t worry him and he should be competitive once again. Whether this seasons form is quite good enough remains to be seen, though.
His third place in the Queen Anne ties in with the winner of the Royal Ascot race, Triple Time. It was a massive career-best, somewhat unexpected for many, after 262 days off the track.
The talented son of Frankel showed promise earlier in his career but had issues that prevented him from realising his full potential as a 3-year-old. Now a year older, fit and healthy, he remains unexposed in a sense that we don’t know yet the ceiling.
He won on soft ground as a juvenile. Nonetheless, his best form comes on a sounder surface. This isn’t a class 4 Novice race at Haydock. There’re questions marks, for that reason, in my mind.
I’m curious about Erevann, who enjoys soft ground and on the basis of last years form would be a huge runner. He achieved a career-best in this race 12 months ago, and also won on deep ground a Group 2 in fine style subsequently.
If you’d run last years Jacques Le Marois again you may get a different result… it probably made a difference that Inspiral and Light Infantry finished closer to the rail, while Erevan stayed in the middle and also made contact with a rival two furlongs from home. Another day he wins it.
He wasn’t quite in the same form in two runs this year, yet – at least on paper. Although, perhaps it’s fair to say, he was quite unfortunate in the Prix d’Ispahan when last seen as his path was blocked on the inside rail over a furlong from home at the most crucial stage of the race.
If one wants to see his 2023 form in a negative light, then he was disappointing, given the market expectations on both occasions. In a more positive light one could read it: he has improve with each run and should peak today.
How much more peaking can Big Rock do? Current favourite and one who should enjoy the drop in trip with the deep ground to make it more a test of stamina, nonetheless.
He just got seriously tired in the final furlong in the French Derby, otherwise he’d have been an impressive winner. Big Rock ran consistently strong speed ratings this season. He’s rock solid, so to speak.
A break should have helped to recover from those big efforts. I wonder whether he’s quite at 100% today, though, with some big targets looming large in Autumn?
He’d be my ‘likeliest winner’ selection, nonetheless. At the prices I pass. I also pass on Hi Royal. Obviously I’m a fan, but this is too deep for him, most likely.
In summary: Plenty of serious chances in this field. What a race! At the given prices I’ll see the value in Erevann, who could peak today and with a clear run will be right in the mix when it matters most. Ground, trip and track are perfect.
I have been waiting for The Muffin Man to step up to a mile and he finally does it here, in a seriously poor race, that doesn’t take much for winning it.
The 3-year-old gelding showed some promise this season already, despite an 0/9 record. I wouldn’t give him any more chances, though. This should be his day to shine.
He drops down to a 49 handicap mark, 9 and 7 lb respectively lower than two eye-catching efforts back in May and June. Also his last run was better than the bare result suggested, given there were some solidly handicapped runners in the race, very much so the eventual winner.
He looked a bit sharper early on in the cheek pieces, although, maybe a bit too sharp for his own good. They are off today. The #5 draw is a positive, as long as he isn’t slowly away and gets too far behind as a consequence.
That may happen and seal his fate early on. But he was away well enough when last seen, so here’s hoping. Ben Sanderson claims valuable 3lb – with that in mind, if allowed to run on merit the gelding should be seriously well-handicapped now.
10pts win – The Muffin Man @ 12.5/1
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6.07 Ayr: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
A hugely frustrating and inconsistent sort, Glorious Rio is one not to trust. However, he showed signs of life multiple times this year, and now returns on turf to the minimum trip, on ground that hopefully doesn’t get too soft.
He pulled hard at Newcastle last time over 6 furlongs but ran well in the circumstances, as he’s done a number of times when somewhat unfortunate not getting the best of runs.
He dropped to a seriously dangerous mark now, down to 60; Glorious Rio won 4 times of similar or higher ratings on multiple surfaces and ground conditions, mostly over the minimum trip and also off big weights.
The #11 could be ideal, as it should lead him nicely into the finish, following those that are setting pace against the stands’ side.
Slight concerns over the weather forecast: I hope it’s only going to be one or two small showers, and no more. I don’t think he wants it proper soft conditions.
His very best came on fast ground. Although, he won on good to soft last summer. So the way it should ride given the current forecast will be fine.
10pts win – Glorious Rio @15/2
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8.07 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
The drop in trip in combination with a drop in class will really suit He’s a Gentleman who didn’t get home the last two times over a mile. He ran with plenty of credit, nonetheless, especially last time out when only beaten late.
He can race off the same mark here, which gives him the opportunity to run in this 0-70 contest where he should find life a little bit easier than most of the time this year so far.
The recent run is a clear return to form, suggesting he’s not far off the excellent form he showed last year when also running to speed ratings in the 70s.
If he can follow-up, with the pace scenario possibly suiting him too, he could prove a step above the rest in this field.
Brilliant run by Beccara Rose last night at Sandown. With a furlong to go I thought she had it. Sadly she got tired, and two horses from off the pace came to catch her.
Shame, still searching for a winner after my return. Dartman faded away rapidly from two furlongs out.
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4.00 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Better ground and a drop in trip should do the trick for lightly raced Captain Cuddles.
This race looks probably a little bit easier, although the same grade, as when he caught the eye a few weeks ago at Ascot.
That day he tracked the hot pace before he made good progress from three furlongs out to move into the lead eventually as the front-runner faded away.
He wasn’t able to sustain the effort but good third and only one in the mix late from those tracking the pace. Winner and runner-up came from well off the pace, instead.
He remains a lightly raced 3-year-old with scope for improvement off 80. I feel the drop in trip can only be a positive, as he may not quite got home over 7 furlongs at Ascot, especially with cut in the ground.
Captain Cuddles is a 6f winner on fast ground as a juvenile, and has only been seen three times since, including this latest return to form. The 5lb claim of solid apprentice Alec Voikhansky can only be a bonus today.
It wasn’t quite the dream start on Tuesday: Albegone finished 2nd, beaten by a head in a dramatic finish. At least I got a solid run for my money, which couldn’t be said for Mudskipper who went backwards as soon as he hit the home straight, much the same way his price went throughout the evening.
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2.25 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Plenty of question marks over most in this field, but 3-year-old gelding Dartman is a rock-solid runner who caught the eye in a hot York Handicap when last seen.
That day he led and set a solid pace, especially in the first half of the race. He hit the home straight in front but was soon heavily challenged.
Racing room became tight and he got hampered over 1.5f out, though was perhaps already going backwards. Nonetheless, I was impressed by the attitude he showed to keep going, as he found some momentum in the final furlong and run well to the line.
Dartman remains a maiden after six career starts, but showed promise a number of times and looks capable of a big run off a 74 handicap mark.
This isn’t a strong race and 7 furlongs at Brighton could suit him really well, if he handles the ground.
This is also William Carver’s only ride on the day. He goes pretty well and is one of the stronger riders here. The negative is the drift in the betting this morning. Although, it makes Dartman a very backable price in my book.
10pts win – Dartman @ 7/1
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7.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
I can see the appeal of unexposed Muktamil off a low mark as the son of Sea The Stars should enjoy this trip. But as many in this field, plenty of question marks on fitness and form. This is wide open.
Not sure today is her day, the drying ground however should be a big help, Beccara Rose appears overpriced as she moves up in trip as well and should enjoy the 10 furlongs at this galloping track.
I thought her last run at Kempton was huge given the circumstances in what was a strong race. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go close.
There she was slowly away, but soon recovered and doing probably too much to move quickly into a midfield position.
She kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fastest over the last three furlongs but couldn’t quite get to speedier and better placed rivals.
The return to turf will suit as long as the ground continues to dry, which is expected during a hot day. I believe she could be well-handicapped here if allowed to run on merit.
She showed promise in the past and had excuses in her lesser runs as she didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action, while her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on decent ground as well.
But it remains noteworthy Beccara Rose was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on her debut – in soft – last year.
Hello world, I’m back. I needed a little break: after many months of diving into racing all-out day after day through the winter, spring and the first summer months, some rest was much needed.
Many thanks to all of you who asked through various channels whether I’m okay – that’s really appreciated. I’m okay.
With everything in life for me it’s all in or all out for me. I watch tons of racing and love it. But there comes a point when it becomes too much and time away from the game is needed to recharge and especially renew the excitement.
Truth is, I do enjoy the betting side much more during the winter. It’s less racing and less horses to keep track of. I can easily watch all the races without rushing and it never becomes a slog.
The flat season is tough. It’s so much racing. I love the big races but my bread and butter are the low-grade Handicaps, especially over shorter trips. It’s simply too much, though. Who knows whether I’m the only one but the vastness of racing on offer can become overwhelming in the summer months.
Hence, practically ever year, at some point between July and August I have to pull the plug and let it all go. And then come back happy and ready to be all in. So here we go again.
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8.10 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
Albegone proved to be in good nick when rather unfortunate last month at Catterick as he got stuck behind a bunch of horses and came home easily with the impression there was more in the tank.
He’s a tricky sort, who can pull for his head and has a tendency to hang, but his recent runs were – to the most part – better than the bare form.
I find myself going back to his 22/05 performance at Carlisle especially, where he set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired late. That’s strong form.
He’s 7lb lower now, a pound lower than the speed rating he ran to in May, so he should be seriously competitive in this field as he He drops in class into 0-60 company.
The ground won’t be an issue: Albegone is seen to best effect with ease in the ground. He ran well at Ripon in the past as well.
10pts win – Albegone @ 6/1
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8.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
Mudskipper hasn’t fulfilled the potential I thought he had before the season. However, there are some valid excuses as well, and now gelded, going up in trip again on his All-Weather debut he could be underestimated.
He showed promise last year in three runs but was a disappointing favourite at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance back in April. He bumped into a well-handicapped one and the ground was tough that day, so perhaps he just didn’t get home for valid reasons.
Over a mile in his next two starts, a trip most likely a bit on the sharp side, he never looked like winning but I thought he ran with plenty of credit, especially the last time at Sandown where he didn’t get the best of runs but finished well in the final furlong.
The longer trip is sure to suit today, as could be the switch to the sand and with headgear on it may help him to stay better focused in the closing stages.
Those are the naked numbers. They mask what was a shambolic month, in truth. I didn’t deserve to turn a profit, no matter how small, in June. And did so by pure luck, not by skill.
As I upped the volume significantly (already started last month, which turned a profit thanks to one big winner) I was basically falling into a habit of gambling.
Not making good, informed decisions, weighing up chances for and against properly. And while still plenty of my eyecatchers won, I still couldn’t back the ‘right’ ones. It felt like trying to catch a fish in murky water.
68 bets in a single month: that’s an awful lot. I never had more bets in a single month, ever. Way too many. It diluted the quality of my selections.
While the facts for playing volume are clear and obvious, my way was always quality before quantity. Hence it’s unusual for me to endure subsequent series of 31 and 16 consecutive losing bets in one month.
Of cousre the “what if” always weighs on the mind. Including those six winners, there were 25 placed selections. That’s about 46% of selections finished in the first three, some at huge prices. If one of those wins, then I may have been inclined to feel more positive about June 2023.
But I shouldn’t, because the truth remains the same: too many bets, not enough quality. The fact selections only beat SP 31 times and BSP even less, tells a more accurate story.
Especially those horses in the 3/1-5/1 bracket did exceptionally poorly.
Saying that, I often struggle in the summer months because it’s just so much racing. Way too much. I can’t keep up, even with specialising only on sprint handicaps, to the most part.
But the bigger picture is always important. Four of six months have been green this year. 10 of the last 17. 17 of the last 28 (since 2021). It’s a long game. And in the long run it’s going up. I just need to find the right balance again. Quality over quantity.
As badly as June ended, with 16 conseqeuitive losers (standing at 20 currently), it was incredibly sweet when 33/1 shot Royal Champion ended my losing run of 31 at Royal Ascot in the most brilliant way.
Competitive in nature as these sprint handicaps tend to be, there are about a handful – at most – handicapped to win. British raider Came From The Dark is definitely one of those.
He was a massive eyecatcher last time in the infamous Epsom Dash where he finished the fastest over the last three furlongs.
That day he had a lot to do after missing the break and getting pushed over to his right by a rival right after leaving the gate. Eventually he ran on incredibly strongly with a huge effort on the far side of the track.
That run confirmed the impression he gave at Newmarket before, where he also finished the best and was somewhat unfortunate finding himself behind horses at a crucial stage.
Clearly Came From The Dark is in sensational form. However, he didn’t get off to a good start the last two times now. Is this a new habit? A clear concern, as it would be game over here if he loses a lengths at the start.
On the other hand, the uphill finish over 5f at the Curragh should suit a lot and he is drawn right around a lot of pace to possibly tow him into the finish, where he needs possibly a bit of luck for the gap to open.
Off 89 he’s well-handicapped, no doubt. Ground, trip and track will suit.
10pts win – Came From The Dark @ 15/2
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3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish Derby, 1m 4f
Auguste Rodin is the overwhelming favourite and there’s every reason to believe he can do the special Epsom & Curragh double today.
Too imposing was his performance last month in the English Derby, as he cruised into contention over two furlongs out and kicked clear off a very good colt in King Of Steel.
He ran home the fastest over the final three furlongs and did it easily. There’s no doubt he’s incredibly hard to beat. Perhaps he’s nearly unbeatable – as much the odds suggest.
Aiden O’Brien has assembled an armada of runners, probably to ensure a safe passage and solid pace.
Unfortunately the final field has somewhat cut up to the point where the Irish Derby becomes nearly a family affair for the O’Brien clan. In saying that, the two “foreigners” are of huge interest, and add spice to the race, nonetheless.
White Birch has proven himself to be a seriously talented colt. On speed figures his runner-up performance in the Dante rates actually a pound higher than Auguste Rodin’s Derby victory.
Different track, different trip, though. Nonetheless, the Ballysax winner caught the eye in the Dante and subsequently the Derby with the way he finished his races. Both times not ideally placed.
If he could start better, and doesn’t give himself too much to do early on, he’ll be closer at this more conventional track, that is the Curragh. The likely good pace and stiff finish should suit.
The other one is Sprewell, Jessica Harrington’s colt. A winner of a minor race at Naas on his seasonal debut, he showed signs of developing into a really good one in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.
He kicked nicely clear in the final furlong of the talented Up And Under, who is also here today, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and one who also could feature.
Sprewell, though, is the one I’m most interested in for win purposes against Auguste Rodin. The question then is, what are the reasons for him to find seven lengths today? That was the distance he found himself behind at Epsom, where he finished 4th.
The factors that could see him getting a lot closer this time are the track, the ground and the hope for natural improvement.
Epsom was only his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still quite a bit keen and raw at various stages of the race.
Certainly he didn’t enjoy the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. He also had mitigating factors in the home straight for not finishing closer.
Sprewell found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out. He was ever so slightly hampered in the preceding furlong as well.
Wen he tried to go through a gap, splitting the middle of two rivals, he became severely unbalanced. It was impressive and the sign of serious talent that he found his momentum quickly back before his stamina ran out in the final furlong, though he still finished with the 4th fasted final furlong split, and 5th best over the last three furlongs, despite all the trouble.
The galloping Curragh should suit a lot more, so should the less fast ground. He may be ridden with a bit more restraint as well, and then slowly easing into contention. Whether he truly gets home over the Derby trip, up the hill, remains to be seen.
My feeling is 10 furlongs may turn out to be the optimum. On the other hand, in the Derby trial, on heavy ground, he was gaining the further they went in the closing stages.
The truth is most likely, Sprewell will find Auguste Rodin too good. At the given prices, I feel it’s worth to back Jessica Harrington’s horse, though, as there are legitimate reasons to believe he can get a whole lot closer. And this is racing, things can happen.
One of my favourite races: A Grade 1 Handicap, an intriguing puzzle to solve every year – South Africa’s biggest race.
The 2023 renewal of the Durban July evolves all around favourite See It Again. A rock solid favourite with a solid draw.
The Cape Derby winne,r who beat superstar colt Charles Dickens in that race earlier this year, enjoyed a perfect prep with a fine runner-up performance in the World Sports Betting Guineas and a subsequent commanding victory in the Daily News 2000, both runs at Greyville.
That Daily News 2000 success is the standout piece of form and one would think he’ll be able to bring this form to the next level as he takes on older rivals for the first time.
He possesses a nice turn of foot and excellent cruising speed. Exactly what you need in the July. He looks competitively weighted as well with 65.5kg on the back.
Question marks I have: does he see out the trip on softish ground and will he find himself in too much trouble when it matters most? He’s not a straightforward colt.
Recent Dolphins Cup Trial winner Winchester Mansion is an obvious candidate, thank to that brilliant 3.5 lengths success last month.
A good #4 draw, he has a lot of finishing speed and could be well placed. He won over 2400m in the past, yet on softish ground, with a decent pace expected, in a highly competitive field, he may lack the required stamina over the July trip.
Justin Snaith #1 seems to be Without Question with Richard Fourie picked the son The United States.
He was twice beaten by See It Again already over 2000m. Although, that was on level weights. One feels he’s been brought along with the July very much in mind and he’s dangerous if he stays the 2200m distance.
The same can be said for 3-year-old Pacaya from the same stable. He’ll love the ground, has course form and is highly progressive.
On breeding he’s got a solid chance to stay the trip as well and there’s surely more to come. The #12 draw isn’t a worry and he’ll be a danger if he can take another step forward.
Last years third and probably Mike De Kock’s best chance is Safe Passage. I was sweet for a long time on him, and still believe he can run a strong race.
His 2022 run warrants an upgrade and with a clear run he has a shout with top man Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. He’ll need a bit of magic from the #14 draw.
Increasingly I begin to wonder weather Safe Passage is in love with this track, despite his Daily News 2000 success last year, though. One also has to question whether he has improved since last year. A bigger weight, difficult draw. Not sure there is much juice in his current price.
The other De Kock runner Dave The King has been talked about as a “dark horse”, although not so dark anymore when prominent racing people give him a huge shoutout.
His form gives this progressive 3-year-old a strong chance to feature prominently in the closing stages, if he can stretch out over the 2200m.
If the pace isn’t on, his chances increase plenty fold and 16s could look huge. He’s got a 100% record with a bit of give in the ground as well.
SA Classic winner Son Of Raj will stay every inch of the distance today. Whether he can bring his best form to Greyville is the question mark. He was disappointing the Daily News 2000 and may prefer the longer straight of Turffontein.
Rascallion may not be good enough against this opposition. Puerto Manzano has never looked really home at Greyville.
Well rested Billy Bowlegs comes here as a fresh horse and has question to answer on trip and ground. He has some strong form in defeat, though, and could go close with any improvement.
Perhaps unfortunate in the Met earlier this year, nonetheless hard to fancy over this trip is Pomp And Power. A highly talented individual, but equality enigmatic.
Veteran Do It Again is here for his final dance. Twice he’s won the July in the past. A true superstar of South African racing, still managed to finish a gallant 4th last year. He shouldn’t be good enough against younger rivals, though.
Two fillies that take on the boys today are of serious interest to me:
Rain In Holland is the recent Woolavington winner here at Greyville. She kicked clear in the final furlong, finding more and more as the race went on. She looks like crying out for an additional furlong.
An uncomplicated filly, she can move forward, travel, track a pace, kick and she loves it at Greyville.
She is incredibly tough and gutsy. A 2-11-4 record speaks for itself. Six runs in 2023 already is somewhat unusual for a fancied runner in the July. However, since February she ran only three times, which seems to have been an ideal prep.
Her form clearly stands up well. A strong and slightly unlucky third in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge, she landed the Woolavington in super style last time.
The weights aren’t quite in her favour, nonetheless I feel she is totally underestimated here in the betting. The top man on board, he’ll likely move forward from the #17 draw, and could overcome this perceived negative quickly.
If she finds a good spot, not caught wide early, you can be sure she’ll go down only for a seriously hard fight. There won’t be many in this field that find more when the final furlong marker is approached.
The other filly I feel is clearly overpriced is Woolavington runner-up Time Flies. She is highly progressive as a 4-year-old and still lightly enough raced to find more improvement.
She’s also quite uncomplicated, likes to be forward, and has the #3 draw to get that prominent position early on. Form wise she has to improve and take it to the next level, however she has answered all calls recently.
A fine winner of the Listed East Coast Cup over 10 furlongs at Greyville, she took her form to the next level in the Woolavinton.
Her Woolavington run warrants a huge upgrade given the tremendous progress she made from 5 furlongs out on the widest outside to hit the front in the closing stages, before she tired and still managed to hold on for 2nd place.
Whether she truly gets 2200m remains to be seen. Although, the full-brother stayed 2400m – so there’s more than just faint hope. She’s better off on the weights with Rain In Holland today as well.
5pts win – Rain In Holland @ 17/1 5pts win – Time Flies @ 35/1
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