Global Racing

Arc Review: Golden Horn spoils the party

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Golden Horn

That’s not the result we all wanted. Record bidding wonder mare Treve beaten. A rather disappointing fourth place – it ends the career of the two-times Arc champion on a slightly sour note – given the immense hype in the build-up to the race. Her scintillating turn of foot – not there. Instead she looked a tricky ride and Thierry Jarnet never comfortable.

The French jockey has been slated in some corners for this ride on Sunday afternoon. Rightly so, to an extend at least. He wasn’t aware of the pace scenario and the fact that the quick ground can make all the difference to bring back classy contenders who are up with the speed.

On the other hand he rode Treve exactly the same way as he did when she was so utterly impressive in the 2013 Arc. With the difference that this time she didn’t make ground on the outside in the same impressive way as she did back then. She looked a tricky ride for Jarnet in the closing stages too. He could never get her organised for a big finish.

Maybe she peaked a couple of weeks too early? Remember her stunning performance in the Prix Vermeille weeks before. Maybe it was the ground though. On the quick side of good, which seemed to inconvenience her in the past, seemingly didn’t suit on Sunday yet again.

But: she remains a two time Arc winner. A fantastic mare, one we’ll remember for a long time. An all-time great? Who knows. Let’s put away with this rubbish of comparing horses from different generations with the purpose to establish who is great and who isn’t. Treve has been a brilliant race horse. That is what matters and that is the way we shall remember her.

What a brilliant ride by Frankie, wasn’t it? He may not be quite as strong in the saddle as he used to be 15 years ago, but his brain works as well as ever. It was pure genius to mitigate the obvious disadvantages of Golden Horn’s wide draw; moving forward right away, on the far outside of the field. He avoided any hassle, kept the colt relaxed, got right to the top of the field without any problems and only seconds after the race started Golden Horn was suddenly in the best possible position.

The fast ground clearly helped him to float over the grass easily and effortless. The pace was good, kept him at ease, interested, but wasn’t too quick either. We know Golden Horn stays, and after the first quarter of the race I said to myself: he’ll be hard to peg back once he kicks on in the home straight. That’s exactly what happened.

The conditions clearly helped Golden Horn but it also helps if you’re the best horse in the race, I guess.

Credit where credit is due: John Gosden has done a phenomenal job with Golden Horn. He kept him well and fit throughout the season, campaigned him bravely and didn’t duck away from challenges. Now a Derby, Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc winner – Golden Horn deserves the tag of a superstar. Next stop Breeders Cup?

Global Racing

Sunday Selections: Queen’s Jewel Ready To Bounce Back!

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1.35 Longchamp: Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) 

I stick to Herald The Dawn – was keen on him in the National Stakes when the ground turned soft though, which is not ideal. He finished a decent second behind classy Air Force Blue nonetheless. To an extend he followed up on his gutsy Futurity Stakes success, where he overcame softish conditions.

But the full-brother to Dawn Approach is a top of the ground horse as Jim Bolger pointed out, so today’s conditions at Longchamp do very much favour him. If he is as classy as his trainer says he is, he’ll be a big runner. With the benefit of the doubt, I give him this chance here.

Herald The Dawn @ 9/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.10 Longchamp: Prix de l’Opera (Group 1) 

Queen’s Jewel was a very short favourite to land the Diane earlier this year. She seemingly had problems that day, though, reportedly bleeding, that you can easily forgive her the poor showing there. The filly is much better judged on her utterly impressive display in the Saint-Alary, when she overcame greenness as well as a wide passage.

The Freddy Head inmate looked special that day, which was the reason for her short odds in the French Oaks. Her break since then may be a blessing in disguise, given that she arrives as a fresh horse here. Still lightly raced, you would assume there is more to come from here.

Queen’s Jewel @ 13/2 VC – 5pts Win

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3.45 Tipperary: Istabraq Hurdle (Grade 2)

This should be a battle between the two Tony Martin inmates Thomas Edison and Ted Vale. The latter one finished an excellent third in the Galway hurdle, while having been caught a bit too far off the pace and in slight in-running trouble at a crucial time turning for home. He travelled strongly, though, coming with a big challenge jumping the last, when his stable mate Thomas Edision, equally looking to win the race, fell and hampered Ted Vale.

On that form, both horses are closely matched, although Thomas Edision stands better in the weights today, and potentially has a bit more room for improvement, while we basically know what Ted Vale is. However given the discrepancy in price, it is easy for me to go with Ted Vale here.

Ted Vale @ 3/1 Bet365 – 10pts Win

Global Racing

ARC Preview: All to lose for Treve…?

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Treve bids for a historic third Arc – yes, that’s a third one….. on the bounce! But you probably know that already. Anyway; she’s going to win? Possibly. The wonder mare is hard to oppose. Her form stands up to all scrutiny. She was utterly impressive in her prep. She has a fair draw. Only in-running trouble can spoil the party. Or the ground? Maybe. It’s slightly quicker than ideal for her.

So, what to make of the race? Treve is going to win if all goes to plan. However every horse has only a certain chance by percentage after all and with the favourite over-bet, there is value elsewhere to find.

Tapestry: A super filly. Now four years old, she returned from an almost year long absence last month at the Curragh where she finished an excellent runner-up behind smart Ribbons in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes. She was beaten for speed but fought gamely. She’ll be better over the 1m 4f Arc trip.

The Ballydoyle filly was second in last years Irish Oaks but made no mistakes when lowering the colours of supper filly Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. A long, hard season was telling, though, when she finished down the field in the 2014 Arc.

I expect her to improve big time for her comeback run, which in itself was a strong performance. But fitness wise she’ll be better today, and she’ll certainty enjoy the sound surface- the good draw is a bonus. Tapestry is a smart, genuine filly, not the likeliest winner, of course, but has plenty of good things on her side, so at 40/1 I have to say she is more likely to outrun her price tag than not.

Erupt: A three year old colt with strong course and distance form; he is the reigning champ of the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris….. and you get 25’s? WOW! I guess he was an even bigger price earlier this week, nonetheless, this us huge, considering that this price tag is seemingly based on a poor showing in the Prix Niel.

Okay, he was easily beaten by New Bay that day, but the ground was very soft. It’s a different scenario today. The good ground will surely make all the difference to Erupt’s performance and with a perfect draw in 4 he’s very likely to find himself in an excellent position when the field turns for home.

Once he hits top gear, he can be difficult to peg back. He may not have shown his absolute best yet, either. There is a possibility for him improving, again. That says I’m pretty confident to see him finish at least in the top five.

What else? Well, Golden Horn, of course! The Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner is an intriguing contender. Personally I’m worried about the draw. He’ll have to be extra special to overcome it and to beat Treve.

French Derby winner New Bay is touted to be the biggest danger for Treve. But is he? The fast ground is a clear question mark in my eyes. He has a super draw, though. I do look forward to see whether he can translate his excellent form and talent to this different surface. No excuses being drawn in five, that’s for sure. But honestly, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Summery: Treve will win. I want to see her doing it. Make history, love. I don’t think the ground is too much of an inconvenience. She’ll be fine. If she gets a clear passage, she’s pulverizing this field. If not, well, then I hope quite selfishly, one of my two fancies can sneak in.

Erupt @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win 
Tapestry @ 40/1 Racebets – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Keeneland: Europeans have a strong hand

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9.35 Keeneland: First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)

Soft ground makes this quite an unpredictable race but potentially the Europeans are best suited. Aiden O’Brien’s filly Easter is well fancied but I prefer stable mate Outstanding at double the price. When last seen she finished a fine 3rd in a Group 3 behind Irish Oaks runner-up Jack Naylor and Easter when.

She has won on soft ground in the past, so she’ll handle the conditions and with the slow ground probably won’t mind the drop to 1m. A full-sister to Magician, she is obviously well bred, and with lasix used on her again – as when she was a fine 3rd in the Belmont Oaks earlier the year – she could be well able to leave this years form behind.

Outstanding @ 6/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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10.45 Keeneland: Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade 1)

Two horses I have to put up for this race: European raider Kelinni has hardly the credentials to land a Group 1, but with first time lasix, slow ground and top draw, he should be extremely competitive in a race that lacks star quality. He stays much further than the mile trip, but won a 7f Handicap in Ireland when the last time seen, making all that day. Same tactics will be useful here.

The Pizza Man looks underestimated here. He drops in trip, and that may not quite suit, though the slow ground should help as he has a good record in softish conditions. He won the Arlington Million last month, his third success this year. He’s a tough, genuine type. Exactly what you want here.

The Pizza Man @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win
Kelinni @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Fontwell: Mile House A Danger Back Hurdling

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Becher's Brook

3.20 Fontwell: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2), 2m 3f

A fairly open race I feel, but someone has to move forward and make the next step to win this. Could it be Mile House? He doesn’t get much love in the betting but feel is too harshly judged on his latest efforts over fences.

The big obstacles didn’t work out for him but a return to hurdling could easily see him back to form. He won a good Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f back in July and looked long good the next time in a hot race off a 5lb higher mark. He was up with a quick pace but faded late to finish 3rd eventually.

Todays trip and track should suit down to the grounds though, and still rated 130 he may well be able to progress again now back hurdling given this is only his ninth start over the smaller obstacles. He makes appeal as a big price against the better fancied horses towards the top of the market.

Mile House @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Redcar: Tupi Can Bounce Back at Listed Level

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2.35 Ascot: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

This is a pretty poor renewal given that each and every runner faces allot of question marks. It is hard to put much faith into favourite Romsdal, who is on past form the one to beat, but after all has never won over this trip and in fact, despite some high class placings, only won a maiden and an All-Weather listed race anyway. He looks vulnerable.

The only three year old in the race warrants respect, naturally, due to the weight allowance. Star Storm is only a decent handicapper to this date, though, and will need to improve a good deal to win this. He may well do it, but at the given price, I find him hard to fancy.

If one horse stands out in this field it is the filly Queen Of Ice. A multiple listed winner over 1m 4f as a three year old, she has run only twice this year and was a big disappointment in both starts. However she remains generally lightly raced. Tongue tied for the first time today and her low mileage may give her the edge in this race, and at a tasty price, I give her the nod.

Queen Of Ice @ 11/1 VC – 5pts Win

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3.35 Redcar: Guisborough Stakes (Listed), 7f

Guineas fifth Celestial Path has an obvious chance dropping heavily in class, given he has shown enough speed for 7f in the past either. However he hasn’t been seen for a long time. It might well be a positive to turn up fresh, but at a very short price I’m happy to leave him alone in the betting.

Much beloved Top Notch Tonto is extremely competitive at this level and has strong form to offer. Despite being a CD winner in the past, this drop in trip may not quite suit him on drying ground. Others are quicker.

So Beloved sets a high standard in my mind. He has top form to offer and loves the trip. But it won’t be easy giving weight away, which opens the door for three year old Tupi, who seems underappreciated in this field.

The Richard Hannon inmate has won two listed races over 7f and 1m earlier this year and was subsequently highly tried, without landing a blow against much too strong opposition. The drop back into listed class will help him surely to be competitive again. With trip and ground to suit, he deserves a crack at this and is overpriced big time.

Tupi @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win

Ireland

Champion Chase: Clarcam ready for the battle?

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Dedigout and Paul Carberry

4.35 Gowran Park: Grade 2 Champion Chase, 2m 4f

Despite his return from a seasonal break, Clarcam sets a very high standard in this race and is the one they all have to beat. On past form he is clearly the star in this field and his record as a fresh horse is a positive one – so one would imagine he’ll be ready to go..

Although,maybe not quite as ready as last season? Since then Clarcam has developed into a top class chaser, a Grade 1 horse, who will have much bigger prices and targets waiting on the horizon, later in the season.

If Clarcam proves to be slightly vulnerable fitness wise today…. well, there are plenty of alternatives! Top weight Alelchi Inois will appreciate the return to the 2m 4f trip and should be ready for a big battle. He is best to be forgiven his last two below par runs.

Galway Plate winner Shanahan’s Turn poses to be an obvious danger, although I may wonder whether this shorter trip finds him out against speedier sorts? Jessica Harrington’s Cailin Annamh is quite an interesting contender. Improving and versatile, he can make use of her low weight.

Texas Jack probably prefers it softer and seems not as good as he used to be. He was fair and square beaten by Devils Bride the other day, although he’s better off on the weights today with this rival. Nonetheless I fancy the Gigginstown runner to get the better of ‘Jack again today – and in general he looks the one to side with if the favourite, in the same ownership, doesn’t fire.

This progressive chaser has won four of his six starts over fences and really improved this summer with a tongue tie applied. He improved from landing a Handicap at Galway, to beat Texas Jack at Listowel over 2m 4f in very comprehensive style, always travelling strongly. He looked to be able to pull out more if required, so the weight shouldn’t make too much off a difference today.

Whether Devils Bride is up to this high level here remains to be seen. However he clearly is talented and deserves his chance. He may well improve again – he has to do so – but if he does, he won’t be far away in the closing stages.

Devils Bride @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saliisbury: Radhaadh deserves another chance

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Newmarket July Course

4.00 Salisbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Raw Impulse looks a strong favourite but at 9/4 is hardly a bet for me. Fellow three year old Radhaadh seems a big price compared, though. The filly got off the mark in a Chelmsford maiden over 10f two starts ago and did that in most impressive style.

Upped in trip to 1m 3f the next time in a hot handicap, she was racing for the lead, kicked on to win the race with the race leader over 3f out, however faded inside the final furlong. The slight drop in trip will surely suit better and the jury is still out whether she is up to her current mark.

She is related to smart Munaaser, though and well bred, which suggests there could be still more to come. She has the perfect draw today to accommodate her aggressive racing style – only concern I really have is the ground. She may well prefer a quicker surface. The sun over Salisbury will help though to dry out the last patches of soft… hopefully.

Radhaadh @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Monday Selection: Gameplay A Big Price at Wolvs

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Warren Hill

7.10 Wolverhampton: Nursery (Class 6), 1m 141y

A poor nursery which gives well bred Gameplay a big chance to get off the mark on his nursery debut. He hasn’t shown a lot in three maidens, but the slight step up in trip and the fact that he gets into this race of an opening mark off 60 must give him a big chance.

Add to this that cheekpieces are applied for the first time and his recent gelding op – Mr. Appleby has a tremendous record with geldings first time out – and a price of 9/2 becomes suddenly quite a big one in a race like this. Gameplay could have easily more to offer.

Gameplay @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Selections: Newbury

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2.15 Newbury: Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2), 6f

Wide open renewal, which lacks a real stand-out performer. I feel, though, rapidly improving King Robert is overpriced. He did a lot of good things in his two starts, overcoming all sorts of trouble. On his debut, when checked and short of room, he was brave and tough. He didn’t have a smooth run the next at Chester either. But he managed to win both times and found another gear when it mattered most.

Whether he is up to Group 2 level is in question We’ll find out today. Certainly he’ll appreciate the slow ground, as I fear on a faster surface he’d be probably quickly outpaced. But he acts fine on softish ground and seems a rather big price in this field.

King Robert @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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2.50 Newbury: Handicap (Class 2), 1m 2f

Burano is a highly attractive price today given he finds his preferred conditions. Down to his last winning mark at the moment he should be competitive on the soft ground, as he won a similar race at this track last year on a rain softened surface. He seemed to find back to some sort of form when last seen at Goodwood. He wasn’t too far beaten in a hot race, but will appreciate the additional furlong and good pace today.

Burano @ 25/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe