Jack Steel can be a winner for Tom Scu at Ayr

DSC_0243

I think it’s worth to take the favourite on here. Not sure if the drop in trip is what he wants and his recent fall isn’t exactly inspiring. I do like the look of Jack Steel though. He arrives here on his Handicap debut with a pretty low opening mark and might be able to exploit it.

He shaped okay in his last couple of starts under rules without doing anything particularly impressive. But he is a former point winner in Ireland and has done there his best on better ground. All recent starts came with considerable cut in the ground, which means the conditions at Ayr should suit him perfectly.

Of course he needs to improve from what he has shown so far but with this low opening mark there is a fair chance that he can make his experience count today. It might be telling in itself that Tom Scudamore comes here for this one ride only. The yard isn’t going well but this jockey booking instils some confidence that a big run is expected. 6/1 could be a big price.

2.00 Ayr: Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Jack Steel @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts win

Advertisements

Boom The Groom Back With A Bang On Turf?

Newbury racecourse

Okay, I know one shouldn’t do this, but hey, I’m only human, right? I have to admit 1f out I was counting my cash as Greatest Journey loomed large on the outside in the Tattersalls Millions and I would have thought he will easily outstay Cape Clear Island….. I was wrong. A close 2nd was all he got in the end.

Moheet’s bubble burst. Quite badly in the Craven Stakes. Backed off the boards beforehand but didn’t show anything that would have warranted the hype (which I wanted to believe as well). Hail The Hero didn’t quite get a clear run on the inside, though is not up to this standard. Says off his current mark of 87 I’d think he could be still well in if back in Handicap company….

————-

3.55 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)

A very tight Sprint Handicap without the one obvious candidate. It’s all to play for here and I feel that the first two in the betting are definitely skinny prices and therefore to take on. No doubt, Lucky Beggar is a fine sprinter and dropping down into Handicap company after a fair, though not sparkling effort in a very hot Listed contest over 6f at Doncaster, gives him a chance to be competitive. Though he also drops in trip, and this combination of minimum distance plus quick ground looks not quite ideal.

Robot Boy was a creditable third in the Borderlescott Sprint Trophy two weeks ago and should strip fitter. Ground and trip is fine and he has some good form to his name, though his last win came five starts ago off 11lb lower. Seven year old Steps has to give plenty of weight away and may be better suited with a bit of cut in the ground. Normal Equilibrium has to follow-up his recent Chelmsford success under a penalty. His win record doesn’t inspire too much confidence.

As a juvenile Group 2 winner, but now a four year old, Green Door hasn’t won since his big day in autumn 2013. With a dropping mark it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him going close, but hard to know what to expect. Veteran Noble Storm is hard to fancy these days off a high enough mark.

Leaves us with Boom The Groom. He was a fine juvenile in Ireland but has really taken off since moving to the UK. He really excelled on the All-Weather and has won three races in the last four month. Not to forget he has been placed a dozen of times in good races. He won a Handicap off 97 and was a fine 3rd in a hot Listed race subsequently.

He wasn’t disgraced in the AW Championships Sprint either, given that he finished behind some higher rated individuals. Back on turf now, the quick ground should suit, so does the trip. His mark looks fair and he deserves his chance in this race. He may well improve again and looks the value in this race.

Boom The Groom @ 10/1 PP – 5pts win

————-

6.10 Bath: Lansdown Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)

I feel this five furlong sprint evolves around the two top rated older horses. I tend to believe that it is not easy for three year olds to compete with seasoned older horses in sprint races, particularly not at this stage of the season. As for the other older horses: They have an awful lot to find on the ratings.

The consistent Demora is the favourite to land this race and her record as well as top rating means she has a top chance here. She is ground independent and has strong form on a quick surface, which is what is expected at Bath. Her record fresh is excellent and while she hasn’t won in her last five starts, she ran more often than not strong races.

She is entitled to go really close, but considering her short price, I feel there isn’t much between her and most feared rival Milly’s Gift, who makes more appeal from a betting perspective.

The five year old mare Milly’s Gift has been progressive over the last two season. She won two races last year in fine style, and particularly on her most recent success, which was her penultimate start last season, she looked to have still a bit in hand. That says she didn’t enjoy the run of the race subsequently at Ascot but finished a fine third, which makes me believe she is clearly up to her current rating, if not even a bit better, and that makes her a closely matched rival with Demora.

She was a bit unlucky in a couple of big Handicaps at Ascot last year, where she also shares form with Demora and actually beat her. She probably should have won most certainly the Class 2 Herritage Handicap at Ascot in July.

On balance she may have a bit to find with the favourite on the ratings, but effectively looks as good as Demora and has done well as a fresh horse in the past. Milly’s Gift has also winning form at Bath. In my mind she looks overpriced.

Milly’s Gift @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts win

Preview: Tattersalls Millions & Craven Stakes

DSC_2290

Another successful day punting wise – Corbata won the Leopardstown Handicap as I had hoped he would. It was a bit of a surprise to see him going off the 9/4 second favourite, considering that I felt he was already too big at 15/8 last night. Anyway, BOG is a nice thing to have, indeed! Corbata travelled well throughout the race, though didn’t seem to find an awful lot off the bridle. But in the end the head was in front when it mattered. First winner for John Oxx this season btw…

Hakam didn’t quite enjoy the same fortune. He travelled much the best but had absolutely nowhere to go until very late. It’s fair to say he was the best horse in the race and would have won with a clear run. Well, that’s racing.

—————-

200,000 Tattersalls Millions 3-Y-O Trophy

This intriguing contest over 1m 2f looks wide open. As usual at this stage of the year it remains to be seen whether horses have trained on over the winter or not. Therefore I remain cautious about short priced three year olds on their seasonal reappearance.

Favourite Secret Belief certainly looked a top class colt in the making when landing the 500,000 Tattersalls Millions 2YO Trophy last season here at Newmarket. A subsequent disappointing effort in Group 1 company can be excused on the basis of the soft ground that day. On pedigree he looks to have the trip surely in his blood.

In fact she should actually improve for this stiffer test. The yard is in red hot form too – says Secret Belief should have a major chance to go very close if he has wintered well and is fit enough for his comeback run. I do like him, but 2/1 looks a skinny price nonetheless.

Lightly raced Rocky Rider won really well on the deep Chelmsford polytrack last month. Much more is required here though. He may well be up for it, but I can easily oppose him on the basis of his short price. Richard Hannon’s Azmaam kept on well in the 500,000 Tattersalls last season, but on pedigree he doesn’t look certain to stay the trip.

Cape Clear Island is very hard to fancy on what he has shown last season. He may improve for the step up in trip, but may well fall short of staying it either. O’Brien’s stable form isn’t exactly inspiring too.

I kind of like Mike De Kock’s Tannaaf. I’m pretty sure he can improve over the new trip. He was unlucky in his only run at Meydan earlier this year and remains on of the more interesting candidates in this race. He’s a fair price. Groor may be progress as well, 10f seems ideal on pedigree. But he had already nine career starts and others make simply much more appeal.

If there is one horse overpriced in my eyes then it must be the second Godolphin runner Greatest Journey. Trained by Saed Bin Suroor, this gelding has gradually improved over the winter on the All-Weather. The drop in trip to 7f was never to suit when he was the last time seen, though he wasn’t disgraced finishing third behind the subsequent 3yo AW Champion.

He has fitness on his side here I feel, but even more so looks likely to progress for this new trip. On pedigree he’s entitled to stay 10f and he has won comprehensively over 9f in the past. If he can transform his recent form to the turf I think he can be a big runner in this race.

Greatest Journey @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts win

————

4.05 Newmarket: Craven Stakes (Group 3)

There are a couple of potentially smart individuals in this seven runner line-up for the 2015 Craven Stakes, but two horses do really jump out here for me: Moheet and Hail The Hero. Both have been quite expensive as yearlings and logically both are bred to be really good horses. Pedigree isn’t all of course, but there is much more to them:

The Richard Hannon inmate Moheet is only a maiden winner to date. However the way he won on his debut last year at Salisbury couldn’t have been more impressive. The turn of foot he produced once Dettori pushed the button was instantaneous.

Yes, it was probably not the strongest of maidens, however this was visually as impressive as it gets. He looked special that day. One can only hope that he has wintered well and is fit for his seasonal reappearance. I believe he has the most potential in this field and is clearly the one to beat in my eyes.

As an interesting alternative I like to nominate Hail The Hero. He left Aiden O’Brien after a rather disappointing two year old campaign – even though a 2nd place to a subsequent close runner-up behind Gleneagles is not bad form at all. Though he didn’t quite progress as much as hoped, considering his huge 525k gns price tag.

On his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster last month he got finally off the mark. He travelled like a dream and put the race quite easily to bed. One would think that given his pedigree he’ll improve for the step to 1m. Now more mature, and with a recent run under his belt, I see no reason why he shouldn’t be capable of running really well. Mind you he is bred to be an absolute superstar and seems to get his game finally together.

Moheet @ 7/2 VC – 5pts win
Hail The Hero @ 22/1 – 5pts win

Hakam has the edge

DSC_2418

Usually I avoid maidens like sprouts – but I’ve to make an exception here. The favourite Akeed Champion showed clearly promise last season and may well develop into a nice horse now as a three year old. The Fahey yard goes extremely well and for that simple reason you’d assume Akeed Champion is fit and well. But his two year old form is nothing out of the ordinary and the fact that he beaten a short favourite on his second start means he could be vulnerable today.

The Godolphin newcomer Gossiping is an interesting individual, considering his fine pedigree and the strong form of the yard. The Richard Hannon trained Acaster Malbis has experience on his side but appears exposed.

Interestingly, beside the favourite, only Charlie Hills’ inmate Hakam has a future big race entry (2.000 Guineas). The War Front son cost almost half a million US$ as a yearling and he’s obviously well bred and related to some fine horses. What I particularly like is the fitness edge. He started his campaign in a Lingfield maiden last month, when he finished 2nd, beaten in a photo and showed loads of greenness.

Hakam looks a big, strong individual with plenty of scope and should have learned plenty from his debut. The switch to turf should be no problem, nor the good ground. Since he is related to some fine turf horses, one would think he may turn out to be nice horse. If he’s a Guineas horse is another question, but on balance I feel he is overpriced in this field, where not too many horses make much appeal.

1.45 Newmarket: Hakam @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts win 

Corbata’s Golden Opportunity

DSC_0128

The lightly raced Corbata ran a big race on his seasonal reappearance in a hot Handicap at the Curragh last month. He finished really well and looked moment like the winner close home, just to get beaten in the dyingstrides by two better horses.

The winner went on to win a Group 3 last week, while the runner-up finished 4th in the 2.000 Guineas trial. That shows this form is very strong and merits serious respect. The handicapper has been lenient, though, as Corbata’s new mark is up by only one single pound. He takes on much lesser opposition here at Leopardstown on Wednesday and could have way too much on his plate for this lot.

Bottom weight Sakhees Jack is the main danger. A fine second on his seasonal reappearance, he has a chance of an unchanged mark. Red Ivy drops in class but has to prove her stamina. Fields Of May for Jim Bolger with first time blinkers can’t be discounted of a slipping mark.

4.55 Leopardstown: Corbata @ 15/8 PP – 10pts win

Gingili’s a big chance

National Hunt Fence

I feel that the betting market has it wrong here. The Swingback trained Bobs Lord Tara is surely entitled to go very close with strong recent form to his name but it doesn’t look right to have him the the odds-on favourite. While the drop in trip may well suit, the ground potentially won’t. He also has to give a good deal of weight away to the potentially biggest threat, Gingili. Six pounds, to be specific.

The former Irish point winner Ginili won two bumpers earlier this year and now over hurdles for the first time, should make his point experience count, particularly with trip and ground to suit. It’s telling that jockey Noel Fehily is travelling here for this one ride. Gingili must have a very big chance to follow on from the promise shown and should be the odds-on favourite in my mind.

3.45 Carlisle: Gingili @ 6/4 Coral – 10pts win

Monday Quickie at Redcar

20150411_113220
A quick tip for this Monday – Godolphin stable jockey William Buick has only one single ride today and he should make this a successful one. His mount Second Wave reappears after a promising debut win at this course last season. The yard is going really well, so one would assume the colt is probably fit enough for his comeback.

Second Wave is sure to appreciate the trip, which is a step up from his 7f maiden win, where he overcame greenness and stayed on well. He has scope to improve with age as well and meets perfect ground conditions today on his Handicap debut. That says his opening mark could be quite lenient as he is nicely bred and bound to progress – on paper at least.

4.20 Redcar: Second Wave @ 11/10 Ladbrokes – 10pts win

Horse Racing Around The Globe

%d bloggers like this: