Category Archives: Global Racing

Global Racing

Friday Selections: Golden opportunity for Dikta Del Mar

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3.10 Lingfield: Maiden Stakes, 1m 5f

Realistically there are only two horses in this race with a chance to win. That is obviously the short odds-on favourite Mr Cripps. His last form in a super hot Newbury maiden reads very strong and he has a prime chance if fit after a 3 month long lay-off, and if he takes to the All-Weather.

Second favourite Etibaar is an interesting alternative, though. He was quite a costly yearling, has a stellar pedigree but hasn’t lived up to it yet. He did okay in three maidens before moving into handicap company the last time. Blinkers fitted didn’t have the desired effect. He was way too keen.

These are off today. Connections used a little break to geld him which could have a huge impact given that his sire Kitten’s Joy has a tremendous record with his first time gelded sons. The switch to the All-Weather should also suit perfectly, given his US pedigree. Only slight concern is the trip.

At 4/1 I feel it is worth a nibble in this otherwise uncompetitive maiden. Mr Cripps may prove too good. But any weakness will be exploited by Etibaar who has a better chance to win than 20% in my book.

Etibaar @ 4/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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5.35 Tipperary: Abergwaun Stakes (Listed), 5f

The 3yo filly Dikta Del Mar must have a massive chance here. Unfortunately I realized this too late and the price is tumbling. Nonetheless 9/2 proves value given that she hasn’t been disgraced in a couple of hot races this year, following on from last seasons Listed success in France.

She clearly loves it soft and will appreciate these conditions today. I expect her to bounce back from a poor effort at Goodwood, where quick conditions didn’t suit. The drop into Listed class will help today, so will be the tons of weight she received all around.

Dikta Del Mar @ 9/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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6.05 Tipperary: Class 1 Handicap, 5f

Ultra competitive race and I like a couple of these. But for price reasons I can’t ignore A Few Dollars More who is surely too big at 18/1. He wasn’t seen to best effect at the Curragh the last time but might be better judged when there is a bit of juice in the ground as happened on his penultimate start when he won a Cork sprint. This form works out very well.

He is down to this very same mark again, and while this here is a stronger race, he gets in off an absolute feather weight. My perception is that with the soft going likely to suit today, he can be better than his current mark off 76.

A Few Dollars More @ 18/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Tuesday Selections: Zhukova can win Cork feature

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Cork Racecourse

Good win for Harlequin Rock yesterday. Feels always good to get things right, as it doesn’t happen too often! Mass Rally looked to come storming home on the outside but faded away eventually. He needs more help from the handicapper these days. Katimavik was NR.

7.35 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This could be an excellent opportunity for the old boy Noble Storm to get back on the score sheet. The nine year old hasn’t been exactly close to winning this year but more often than not wasn’t disgraced nor far beaten.

He drops to a very handy mark now which should see him competitive in this grade, particular today with ground conditions sure to suit well.

Noble Storm @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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7.50 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f

The two fillies at the top of the market could be hard to beat here. Talawat of bottom weight will go very close if she gets the trip against this better opposition. Martlet makes more appeal as she is proven over track and trip.

However I feel Taaqah is overpriced here. She went close over a mile at Chelmsford earlier this year, when runner-up behind Boonga Roogeta. She hasn’t been seen to best effect in her last two starts but the return to the All-Weather may help. She steps up in trip and that is the factor which may see her improving a bit again.

On pedigree she has every chance to do so as a son of Arch out of a Gone West mare who has a stake in multiple St. Leger winner Leading Light.

Taaqah has only one maiden win to her name yet, and that over 6f. It’s is not given that she appreciates the new trip. But it’s possible. There aren’t too many in this field with a realistic chance on handicapping terms and therefore I believe she is a rather big price here.

Taaqah @ 16/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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8.00 Cork: Give Thanks Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 1m 4f

This two times races filly Zhukova progressed nicely from her debut run when she landed a Navan maiden in fine style back in June. Trainer Dermot Weld was quite happy and was hoping she would make into a nice Stakes filly over further. Today is the chance.

She lacks experience in this field but is extremely well bred and should appreciate the step up in trip. With natural progression she can go close.

Zhukova @ 14/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Monday Selections: Mass can Rally home

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Naas

2.30 Nottingham: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

Money is floating in for Harlequin Rock and it’s easy to see why. This Rock Of Gibraltar son hasn’t shown anything in three maidens but will be very suited by the step up to 1m on his nursery debut. He gets into this race off a very low opening which may underestimate his potential.

First time gelded, which works well for sons of ROG, he is from a mediocre family, although his dam has produced horses that who have been competitive off mid-60 marks. Here’s a fair chance that Harlequin Rock is underestimated in this field.

Harlequin Rock @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.45 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

A couple of these have a big shout but at the given prices veteran Mass Rally makes appeal. He’s slipping down to a realistic mark, in fact hasn’t been racing of such a lowly mark since 2012 when he won the Ayr Silver Cup off 94.

He is still competitive as he proved at York earlier this year. He has to bounce back today after a dismal run at Hamilton, but now down to a mark off 95 as well as dropping in class, he should be very competitive with softish conditions to suit.

Mass Rally @ 8/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.25 Naas: Conditions Race, 7f

Not too many make appeal, but Weld’s Katimavik could be well in here. He was an impressive scorer at Fairyhouse over seven furlongs last year, after which his trainer said this lad needs better ground. He was disappointing on his seasonal reappearance but made amends subsequently in a three-runner handicap when hanging tough against a mid-90 rated individual.

On that evidence the drop in trip should suit. Katimavik still had only four career starts and with trip & ground to suit he could be a good ten pounds better than his current rating which would give him a prime chance in this field.

Katimavik @ 5/1 Betfred – 5pts Win  

(Edit: Katimavik is a non-runner)

Global Racing

Piri Wango can land the Ahonoora

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Gordon Lord Byron

3.15 Chester: Queensferry Stakes (Listed), 6f

You can pick holes into any horse here, even the rather shortish favourite. Eastern Impact’s Royal Ascot performance sets obviously a very high standard, but earlier this season he wasn’t capable of winning a listed event. So while the drop in class is significant today, it doesn’t mean he’ll have an easy task.

With the rain falling, I like to give proven soft ground performer Canny Kool a chance here. He tries 6f for the first time and will have raise his game in order to feature. But he should be well suited by the trip on pedigree and may well be able to pull out more. He has a good draw and is usually up with the pace, which always helps at Chester.

Canny Kool @ 12/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.50 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Apostle need to have things fall inch right for him in order to win, as happened exactly one year ago when he landed this very same race. He is down to the very same mark today, hasn’t been disgraced in a very hot handicap lately and therefore should be in with a fine chance here.

The draw isn’t ideal and it appears to be a deep enough race, so chances are that he may not get the all clear run he needs. But despite the quality on offer in the field, not many are well handicapped, unlike Apostle.

Apostle @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5ps Win

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3.20 Galway: Ahonoora Handicap, 7f

A surprisingly lacklustre affair, with a clear lack of quality on offer. Only a handful of horses should be good enough to feature. That makes it easier to narrow down the field. Last years winner Baraweez ran well earlier this week at Festival and must have a prime chance off the same mark today. I can see why Hidden Oasis features prominently in the betting, but the step up in trip is a worry.

Beau Satchel won earlier this week and loves the track, so does old boy Pintura – both make plenty of appeal, but the money is coming in for Ger Lyons’ charge Piri Wango and there is a strong case to be made for him.

He is proven over course and distance, finished runner-up in the Topaz Mile last year and in good form lately. He’s the class act in the field with excellent Group form to his name, but that is also the reason why he has to carry top weight. It’s a tough ask but he performed well under big weights in the past and should love the conditions today.

Seven furlongs is as sharp a trip as he likes it these days, but blinkers and a good draw will clearly help to see him early in position. I believe he has a prime chance to go close today.

Piri Wango @ 7/1 Bet465 – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Friday Selections: Goodwood & Galway

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.35 Goodwood: Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

Bold entry from Mick Channon to send his classy filly Malabar into the race. But then, there are good reasons for it. Goodwood is the place of her biggest triumph, when she landed a Group 3 here last year. Since then she contested at the highest level against top class opposition while performing consistently well. She is however a filly who runs consistently into trouble as well.

She was unlucky in a handful of her starts, most recently in the Irish 1000 Guineas and subsequently the Prix De Diane. She drops markedly in class today and I believe that should make all the difference. She just doesn’t have quite the high cruising speed or change of gear you need at Group 1 level.

But down in Group 3 class, she should be a major player in this wide open race. Visors fitted may help her to stay focused until the race is over as she often travelles well but seem to lack sharpness when it really matters. Negative is De Sousa who just can’t ride Goodwood. But it’s worth the risk as Malabar strikes me as a filly with a massive chance.

Malabar @ 10/1 Sportinbet – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Betfred Mile Handicap, 1m

This should be an incredibly close race and I feel Ocean Tempest is very much overlooked. He hasn’t really excelled at Meydan and seemed to feel this tough campaign on his UK comeback in the Lincoln. Back from a break now, he is finally dropped to a realistic mark again in a grade where he belongs.

He has the draw to get into a positive position right from the start here, which should suit. He may not get an easy lead, but tracking it would work too. Off 105 he must certainly enter calculations if back in form, given he won off ten pounds higher last year.

Ocean Tempest @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Goodwood: Nursery, Class 2, 6f

Richard Fahey’s filly Zahrat Narjis makes plenty of appeal here on her Nursery debut. She is very well bred, by a sire who gets often excellent 2 year olds, out of a Group 3 winning dam. She showed promise in all her three maidens and now switched to this company should help her. She could easily be better than her opening mark off 72.

Zahrat Narjis @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Guinness Handicap, 1m 4f

Dermot Weld’s Show Court went close in this last year when runner-up off a 2lb higher mark. He travelled strongly but maybe hit the front a bit too early. 12f seems his absolute limit stamina wise and the same scenario could very well happen today again – but at 7/1 I’m rather on him, given that he appears to be well handicapped now.

Show Court @ 7/1 Betfed – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Thursday Selections

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Cheltenham Festival

2.35 Goodwood: Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2)

Long Island at 6/1 is a huge price in my mind. Forgive him the run at the Curragh which came too soon after a big performance at Royal Ascot. He’s more suited to 6f though and after a bit of rest should be back to his best today. He went into the Royal meeting as the most exciting 2yo and I think it’s too early to give up on him.

Long Island @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.00 Galway Handicap (90-60), 1m

Top weight of ten stone and a wider than ideal draw are tough asks, but lightly raced Champagne Or Water makes plenty of appeal in this field nonetheless. She came out off her seasonal break really well at the Curragh earlier this month when she won a good Handicap in fine style.

She came miles clear with the runner-up and might well be able to pull out more, despite a rise off 9lb in the mark. She is overpriced here.

Champagne Or Water @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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3.10 Goodwood: Goodwood Cup (Group 2), 2m

I like to think that Pallasator is capable to bounce back today. He’s a really interesting runner – the three year old filly Vive Ma Fille is the one that intrigues me most. She is wonderfully bred, is a full-sister to Group 1 winning Vif Monsieur and she stepped up successfully to Listed class at Royal Ascot last month.

She tried 2m for the first time and attempted to make all. She set a steady pace and was in with a big shout over one furlong out, however hang her chances literally away. Whether this performance is prove enough for her ability to truly stay 2m isn’t clear yet as on pedigree she hasn’t really a right to do so, but it was an encouraging effort in a competitive field.

Today is tougher of course in a better grade against seasoned stayers, and the fact remains that she has won only one single race to date. But she has been very consistent in her form. What I like is thee fact that she receives a truckload of weight from the rest of the field. The Johnston yard is flying too, so there’s plenty to like about her chances.

Vive Ma Fille @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.45 Galway: Galway Hurdle, Handicap, Class 1, 2m

It was Diakali first, the rest nowhere on his seasonal comeback at Tipperary eleven days ago. If this doesn’t come too soon today, it’s hard to look beyond him. This six year old is the class act, still improving and as long as he takes to the track, will take all the beating, despite top weight. I feel 5/1 is rather generous.

Diakali @ 5/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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7.15 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

I’m sure Kingdom Of Alba is better than what he’s shown in three maidens yet with the yard going strongly, but the same could easily apply to Rebel Yell who makes plenty of appeal on his handicap debut either. He’s pretty well bred and should be very well suited by the step up in trip.

Gelded since his last run will help to focus him more on the task ahead. Usually this works well for Shamardal offspring. This is very winnable race, so with plenty in his favour, he’s a worth a nibble at 10/1.

Rebel Yell @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Tuesday Selections

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Massinga

After some busy weeks in real life and disappointing results on the racetrack I’m getting back into the mood – Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival are surely helping. Some serious racing is on offer today, and I’ll try to enjoy it as much as possible. From a betting perspective I feel the bookies have made some errors:

3.45 Goodwood: Notarised @ 8/1

Naturally this is an ultra-competitive Handicap, but the ground doesn’t play into the hands of many. However it should suit progressive Notarised. He is hard to pass once in front, as shown when winning at Haydock recently where he prevailed in a tough fight. He pulled clear with the second, who’s a good horse in his own right too.

Notarised has won at Goodwood before as well as over 2m. He should have all in his favour, including the possibility to get a soft lead. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but can be able to pull out a bit more once again, particularly with conditions to suit so well today.

> Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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6.15 Galway: Kind Of Magic @ 4/1

The Aiden O’Brien filly should be much shorter here. She was a big eye-catcher on her debut when she ran green and was poorly positioned when the race unfolded. But she finished in impressive style without getting a hard ride. She’ll have learned plenty that day.

Softish ground today should be in her favour as her dam won a Listed race on bottomless ground. She has not much to fear in this field as the Weld favourite doesn’t make any appeal at all at a very skinny price over a trip potentially too short for Simannka. I expect Kind Of Magic to turn the table with Bolger’s Siamsaiocht too.

> 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile – Aussie Valentine @ 25/1

Dermot Weld’s runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices.

In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn’t show his true form.

Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with.

> Bet365 – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Preview: Grand Prix De Paris

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20150411_113220

After a bleak Sunday at Dundalk’s All-Weather, where non of my selection even went anywhere close enough to give me a run for my money, I have set sights firmly on France today – for a change of scenery. The French of course celebrate Bastille Day… let’s hope I can celebrate a winner instead!

6.25 Longchamp: Grand Prix De Paris (Group 1)

I can see the reason why many are keen on Balios after his impressive success at Royal Ascot. Not sure if the race is run to suit him, though, as he seems to need a quick pace and every inch of 12f trip in the King Edward.

Storm the Stars has been runner-up in Irish Derby and third in the English equivalent. He sets the standard, obviously, however may be found out for speed once again. He looks a stayer, and I can see him only winning a Group 1 over the Leger trip. He also had a tough season up to this point, and it might be a race that comes too soon.

For the French it is once more an Andre Fabre trained colt who is going to provide the key challenge. Ampere is unbeaten in two starts, already a Group 2 winner and clearly an exciting prospect. The better ground is a slight concern, as well as his form is nothing particularly special after all.

Silverware should find this trip stretching his stamina, while progressive Erupt is clearly one to take seriously. But it is Aiden O’Brien’s Archangel Raphael who is the most intriguing contender in this field.

He was one I was keen to see as a three year old. He made a belated comeback but couldn’t have done much more than winning his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse earlier this month. The runner-up has subsequently franked the form with a good victory at Dundalk.

Archangel Raphael was a good juvenile. A bit unlucky not to win on debut, when 2nd to a good winner. He was quite green that day as well as on his second career start – though then at Galway, he produced an impressive turn of foot to win in difficult circumstances.

Longchamp as a track should suit him perfectly and in a slowly run race he may be one of few who is happy to make all. Blinkers fitted for the first time doesn’t need to a negative. In fact he could be even sharper in the finish. This talented individual is clearly overpriced in my mind.

Archangel Raphael 12/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Graasten can shock in German Derby

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DSC_0570

4.10 Hamburg: Deutsches Derby (Group 1), 1m4f

Without Karpino and Quasillo the German Derby has lost its main attractions. Which makes it now quite an intriguing affair. Shimrano is a fair favourite nonetheless. He has the form in the book. His win in the Oppenheimer-Union-Rennen is the best trial form on offer. From a betting perspective he makes zero appeal though. 2/1 in a big field with many unkown quantities….

I’ll be going with a massive price – Graasten. He was well beaten behind Shimrano at Collogne, however didn’t quite get the run of the race in home straight and was staying one late. He clearly would appreciate an additional furlong and won’t mind the Derby trip at all.

Fitted with blinkers for the first time today, it may help this very raw and green colt to keep his focus better than he has  in done all of his career starts. He’s often sluggish at the start, but has been best when ridden from the front. He enjoys a good draw today, so with the blinkers fitted, one would hope he is much sharper and is going to be well positioned.

This son of Sholokhov is a relentless galloper, big and scopey build, he could be hard to pass over the Derby trip once he is in front. Of course only if he has the class as well. He has to improve dramatically on what he has shown so far. But he has a chance to do so in my mind – a better one than his massive price tag.

Graasten @ 66/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.10 Ayr: Handicap (Class 3), 1m

Wide open race, not many appear well handicapped, although Pintura might well be, judged on his former best. He is down to a lowly mark off 89 now – that might well reflect his true potential now – but he seemed to regain something of his best when a fair third over course and distance here at Ayr back in May. He was a good runner-up that day coming of a long break.

I happily ignore his latest run at Haydock in unsuitable quick conditions. This today should suit rather well though. There is a bit of juice in the ground as he likes it and could be underestimated.

Main danger is obviously the lightly raced favourite Obsidian who could easily have still more to offer and should really close. However he’s a short enough price, while Pintura offers a bit of value.

Pintura @ 16/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Penalty for Red All Star at Bellestown

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DSC_1186

Plutocracy beaten in the dying strides last night at Kempton – he had too much to do from off the pace in a slowly run affair. But no excuses. If he’d been good enough, he would have won. It’s that simple. Same applies to Pat Harkin, who was subject of massive gamble before the off. He failed to justify the support and could only manage to finish in third. Let’s hope for better today….

4.20 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 6f

Favourite Dannyday looks extremely hard to beat here but is too short for me given there is some better value to find in this field. Not in Polarisation, though. I don’t think he’ll appreciate the trip, and quite frankly don’t think he is well handicapped.

The unknown quantity in this field is the Makfi filly Quest For Wonder. You can’t really judge her on the recent 11 lengths romp at Brighton against much inferior opposition. Though I liked her enthusiasm and the way she galloped all the way to the line. That is a good indication for her ability to stay further. If you do the job so easily over 12f on soft ground at stiff Brighton you’re almost sure to stay further.

There is plenty of stamina on her dam side as well to support this case, less so on her sire side. The quick ground is a big difference today – but Makfi won the Guineas on quick ground and on the dam line is plenty of fast ground form to find either.

Quest For Wonder is a progressive individual, who could have still more to offer and may be able to overcome a massive 10lb hike in the ratings. She is potentially underestimated here.

Quest For Wonder @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.25 Tipperary: Handicap (4YO plus), 5f

Patrick Martin’s Red All Star is still unexposed over five furlongs and seems to have found an ideal opportunity to score. The five year old should appreciate the drop in trip given that he has loads of pace but didn’t quite see out 7f in the past. Most notably at Naas one week ago.

He showed good gate speed that day, but was keen all the way while tracking the lead. Turning for home he went to the front, travelling like the winner until approaching the final furlong marker where he tired badly and got caught. He can race off the same mark today, a career lowest rating, which could slightly underestimate his true potential. Particularly in a field with mostly exposed sorts going to post.

There are no excuses here today, he’s the best handicapped horse, can race off a feather weight, should appreciate the conditions and has a top jockey in the saddle. Banker material.

Red All Star @ 5/2 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

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7.15 Bellestown: Handicap (60-90), 1m 6f

I was keen on Sherlock Holmes the last time when he got off the mark in a decent maiden at Ballinrobe. This lightly raced Galileo son improved well from his debut run at the Curragh and despite not suited by the sharp turns of the track, he finished the job in good style.

This big, leggy & scopey colt is wonderfully bred and will appreciate the additional furlong today. He is a relentless galloper and the Bellestown track is not quite as sharp as Ballinrobe and should suit him better. Given the huge weight advantage he has here due to the WFA allowance, he’s expected to improve again and win this today.

Sherlock Holmes @ 5/4 Paddy Power – 10pts Win