After some busy weeks in real life and disappointing results on the racetrack I’m getting back into the mood – Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival are surely helping. Some serious racing is on offer today, and I’ll try to enjoy it as much as possible. From a betting perspective I feel the bookies have made some errors:
3.45 Goodwood: Notarised @ 8/1
Naturally this is an ultra-competitive Handicap, but the ground doesn’t play into the hands of many. However it should suit progressive Notarised. He is hard to pass once in front, as shown when winning at Haydock recently where he prevailed in a tough fight. He pulled clear with the second, who’s a good horse in his own right too.
Notarised has won at Goodwood before as well as over 2m. He should have all in his favour, including the possibility to get a soft lead. He has to overcome a career highest mark, but can be able to pull out a bit more once again, particularly with conditions to suit so well today.
> Sportingbet – 5pts Win
6.15 Galway: Kind Of Magic @ 4/1
The Aiden O’Brien filly should be much shorter here. She was a big eye-catcher on her debut when she ran green and was poorly positioned when the race unfolded. But she finished in impressive style without getting a hard ride. She’ll have learned plenty that day.
Softish ground today should be in her favour as her dam won a Listed race on bottomless ground. She has not much to fear in this field as the Weld favourite doesn’t make any appeal at all at a very skinny price over a trip potentially too short for Simannka. I expect Kind Of Magic to turn the table with Bolger’s Siamsaiocht too.
> 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile – Aussie Valentine @ 25/1
Dermot Weld’s runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices.
In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn’t show his true form.
Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with.
> Bet365 – 5pts Win