One third of 2023 is over. It went fast. Thankfully, after a rough start, with losing months in January and February, March and April got me back on track.
April finished with another winner last Thursday – I watched Pillar Of Hope on my small mobile screen while boarding for a plane to Germany to stay on strongly to win his Beverly race. He got home in the nick of time, literally.
He made it winner #7 for April. 235 points profit, from 23 selections in April. Only last November was a more profitable month in the last three years.
Annual P/L makes it 300pts up for the year now from 101 selections.
Far From A Ruby has been nicely progressing with each run since her return in early February where she entered the list of eyecatchers.
That day over 6 furlongs, a trip too sharp, she showed good early speed and enthusiasm, which was exactly what I hoped to see. She followed up with another solid run subsequently, although still seemingly short of full fitness.
She’s approaching peak soon as evident three weeks ago at Southwell when she tracked the pace and was right there until fading back to 4th place, 2 lengths beaten.
She now appears to be seriously well-handicapped in this type of low-level apprentice handicap as she goes up in trip. Turf and fast ground won’t be an issue.
Though, down to a mark of 54 offers a huge opportunity. She ran to a 58 speed rating at Ayr over 7 furlongs back in September. She ran to a 50 speed rating when last seen, when not fully tuned up.
I have full faith that she’s still as good as last autumn, and won’t have an issue making up the pounds needed to reach the same level of performance. She stays a mile, has a 3-1-2 record over this course and distance and hasn’t much to fear in this poor field.
10pts win – Far From A Ruby @ 3/1
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5.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Plenty of unexposed horses and you never quite know what you get. However, I’m quite hopeful Totnes can be better than her current 71 rating now that she moves up in trip.
Last time out, given she was an odds-on shot, she was probably disappointing the way she finished in 5th, especially as she travelled very strongly in rear of the field, made good progress from 3f out and loomed large entering the home straight.
Her challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to her left, which is a concern, as well as that she can be keen in the early stages.
I’m prepared to excuse the run because she was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run. Something must have bothered her a few weeks ago – whatever it was, I hope it’s fixed now.
Her pedigree points to stamina and a good chance that there’s more improvement to come as she moved beyond 7 furlongs. Ideally i would love to see her at a stiffer track, but the fact she travelles well and could have a class edge against this opposition makes me cautiously confident.
I don’t think many of her rivals have a lot of scope, while she offers plenty of upside. Totnes looks like a filly capable to progress beyond marks in the 70s.
10pts win – Totnes @ 5/2
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8.15 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Compere looks to have found a nice chance to score. Even though 13 go to post, not many seem to be here to win. Hence I’m not worried about the #6 draw at all, which is good enough to get easily to the front in a race with not much pace to compete against.
The gelding is still pretty lightly raced but took his form to the next level when last seen over this course and distance at Chelmsford over a mile.
He endured an awkward start, heavily bumped a rival before then finding himself in front, overcoming the issues out of the gate, eventually settled in third.
He kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, and kept going strongly. But he had no chance with winner from off the pace, eventually.
This is strong form. The winner was back-to-back winner; the third won last time out and finished third subsequently. The 4th won next time out.
Compere was a 50/1 shot, so clearly outran his price tag there. He now drops in class, down to 0-55, and the fact that solid but ultimately exposed Thomas Equinas heads the betting says all about the strengths in depth of this field.
The handicapper was kind to Compere, as he left him on the same 56 rating. Even though. I imagine the gelding will eventually prove better over 10 furlongs, he’s shown enough speed for the mile and should find this easier, in order to run out a strong maiden victory.
Pretty quick turnaround for Ventura Flame, who ran about a week ago over this course and distance.
It was huge performance, and that’s a question mark whether he can back it up so quickly. On the other hand, it’s only his second run this year and he looks in great form.
When last seen he tracked the pace early on before taking up the lead over 2f out. Still ahead entering the final furlong before he was beaten by a strong finisher from off the pace half a furlong from home.
He’s down to last winning mark from spring 2022, since then ran twice 74 speed rating plus, including near career-best 77 last year and drops into an easier grade here.
There doesn’t seem too much other pace to compete against, hence the #7 won’t be an issue. That aside, there doesn’t seem to be any real danger in this field either. He should be too good off a his74 mark.
10pts win Ventura Flame @ 3/1
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4.00 Beverley: Class 4 Handicap, 8.5f
This looks a wide open contest but without a clear and obvious favourite. Even though I would prefer a slightly longer trip for him, I still think it’s worth to back Pillar Of Hope in this field.
For a 5-year-old he’s quite lightly raced and the reason for that might be what appears to be his rather light frame. Perhaps that’s the reason why he performed well upon his return off a break in the past.
Indeed, in early March, after 110 days away from the track, he ran pretty well when 5th at Newcastle in a pretty strong race.
He was alertly away, disputed the lead, until he came under pressure from 2 furlongs out. He was quickly going backwards, but eventually kept on rather strongly up the stiff finish.
Beverley isn’t that stiff. but the slightly longer trip, up the hill to the line, on possibly rain softened ground with solid pace expected, should make this enough a test of stamina.
He achieve a career-best last September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating and winning off 82. Now 2lb lower, he could have enough in hand against this opposition even over this trip.
Rain is forecasted for late afternoon. The earlier arrives the better, to ensure there remains some of that good to soft before off time. Also the fact that he had ample time to recover from the recent outing gives hope.
Dog Fox done the job on Tuesday. We knew he’s a tricky sort and irrespective of the hood he pulled hard in the early stages; no problem, though – he was too well handicapped on his debut, as hoped.
He was well backed, went off 3/1 (backed at 5s). The 6th winner in April. It’s unlikely I’ll break my “career-best” of nine winners in a single months. Still, from only 20 selections, a 30% strike rate, that’s unusually high for me…. so, waiting for it come crashing down.
Bridge Water was disappointing, but they ran so slow, she never stood a real chance. Dark Design was friendless in the market and never landed a blow.
I can see how Golden Gal turns out to become the gamble of the race here with her return fresh from a wind op, having strong course and distance form.
But I do like my recent form, and as such, one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year is Sir Benedict. This lad is SO ready, I can see a scenario where he just runs way with this in the final furlong.
But I also can clearly envision a scenario where he runs on late for 4th place. Because he’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door and having dropped to a rating that is more than realistic.
In saying that, the drop to the minimum trip should suit in theory, as long as it doesn’t dry out completely, and he doesn’t mess up at the gate, as he can do.
Ignore his latest run. 6f, a muddling pace and no cover never gave him any chance. He pulled like a train, and in that context he still caught the eye the way he travelled to challenge for the lead from three furlongs out, before running out off steam.
Look no further than the two runs prior, though. Two back at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.
And prior to this at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.
What gives me plenty of hope is: 1) a low draw – in theory he should be able to track the pace; 2) the hot pace, which is to suit him, especially if he can use the inside lane, safe ground and use the extra bit of stamina he possesses.
The cut in the ground is to his advantage as well, and now down to a mark of 59 he’s simply looks irresistibly well-handicapped, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.
Big Bard produced a great finish to run out an easy win by about 4 lengths today. The 5th winner in April.
He simply was so well handicapped with the 7lb claim of excellent Alec Voikhansky in the saddle, who gave the gelding a cool, patient ride: waiting for the gap to open on the inside, before he stayed on strongly in the final furlong.
I was deliberating back and forth last night because of the big field and the slight questions over the likely proper soft ground. But in the end the prevailing thought was the gelding is too well handicapped to let go. A correct decision in the end.
I was sweet on Dog Fox earlier this month before he was withdrawn after being upset in the stalls. There’s a concern over his behaviour here as well, of course.
But that aside, the same reasons as back then apply here too, why I’m prepared to back him again. For one, this isn’t a strong race on paper. Not many appear to have a large amount of scope to outrun their current handicap marks.
Dog Fox is also an intriguing horse: one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark for him.
This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.
He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.
An opening mark of 62 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.
The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers. The application of a hood may help to calm him.
10pts win – Dog Fox @ 4/1
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6.25 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f
There’s no question Aihawawi is a great chance in this race and was a huge eyecatcher last time out. Off the same mark here, with the #3 draw to attack the race from, he could be hard to beat.
On the other hand, he was probably beaten for speed at Newcastle, and stayed on up the stiff finish in the closing stages. Does the sharper, less stiff Wolverhampton suit?
At 6/5 I’m not prepared to find out and rather take the proverbial gamble on another eyecatcher, that is Bridge Water. I say gamble because there’s every chance the filly is twice the price tomorrow afternoon.
But I make an as much as possible informed decision and risk assessment that says, all I can judge right now in terms of information in front of me, says she’s too big a price in this field. I have her much, much shorter.
She caught the eye two back at Kempton. There she was restrained from the widest draw and and trailed the field, nicely settled. She travelled strongly and made strong progress from 3f out to eventually finish much the best. She was simply poorly positioned, otherwise she could have won that day.
The form itself isn’t strong, but the way she finished was noteworthy and in line with her prior run that warranted an upgrade too.
Over 6f she probably doesn’t have the speed to win, I feel. But she could improve for the step up to 7f. She’s by Starspangledbanner with a7.0f stamina index, out of an unraced Le Havre mare.
She also has a lowly 49 mark. The return to the All-Weather is a plus, as she didn’t enjoy soft ground when last seen.
10pts win – Bridge Water @ 10/1
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9.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Dark Design ran a huge race in defeat when last seen at Lingfield. He moved quickly forward from his wide draw to slot in right behind the pace setter, but had to do a lot to get there just before the first turn.
He tracked a very strong winner racing in second place, travelled well approaching the home turn. He didn’t have the pace to match from 1.5 out and tired in the final furlong. A fine form, also given the fact he covered about a lengths more than others in front of him that day.
He ran petty well in recent weeks and months, including achieving a 50 speed rating here as well s a 56 one at Chelmsford in January. He’s clearly in strong form and now has been given a chance by the handicapper.
Dropped 2lb to a mark of 55, with a good draw and a CD that may suit, he’s well weighted. He Won off 55 and 57 last season and should enjoy a strong pace to track here which should bring his extra bit of stamina to the fore in the closing stages.
Big Bard ran with plenty of credit the last three times and caught the eye in two of those. He returns to turf and to a course and distance he got desperately close to win back in October.
He came on my radar on the final day of 2022, at Lingfield, when he showed good early speed to lead, seemingly enjoying himself in front of the pack before he got tired and fell back rapidly from 1.5 out.
He was too keen the next time over 7 furlongs, but finished strongly at Lingfield back down to 6 furlongs when last seen in March. Both 6f Lingfield forms look rock solid and confirm that he’s not far off winning form, in my view.
As he returns to the 6f as Windsor, where he was only a shoulder beaten in a tight finish back in October, he can now race off 58, 5lb lower than then.
It’s also intriguing that Big Bard is re-fitted with cheek-pieces. He responded really well to wearing them for the first time in that aforementioned Windsor run.
In addition, the 7lb claim of talented apprentice Alec Voikhansky gives his chance in this race here another boost, if he can handle the soft ground. There is more rain expected, so it may turn to proper soft on the day.
There’s hope, though. He ran well on good to soft in the past, but also won on fast ground, off his current 58 mark, that was his last win, back in October 2021.
This is a competitive race, already given by the 16 runners. Not too many appear overly well-handicapped, on the other side. Big Bard does appear to be one of the better handicapped runners, in any case.
It looks like this race may have been a target to get him ready for over the last weeks. Certainly there is a bit of money this evening already, with the early bigger prices rapidly vanishing. Thankfully I still got what I wanted for my entire stake, although we only see tomorrow whether there is anything real about.
This looks a thoroughly uncompetitive affair, despite a field of 13 runners. That should give Phoenix Beach an excellent chance to get his first win on turf, after he got off the mark on sand last summer.
He was only seen one more time last year, over the same course and distance as his maiden victory. That’s where he caught my eye for the way he travelled through the race from the front, before he suddenly tired rapidly.
He travelled so supremely well there, in line with his impressive first career victory a few month earlier, that something must have been amiss for him to drop out so tamely.
Thankfully it turned out that he lost a shoe and was found lame afterwards, indeed.
He returned last month at Doncaster over 5 furlongs in desperate conditions. He didn’t travelled particularly well but stuck to the task well enough before getting tired in the final furlong. A rock solid comeback run.
You’d hope he can improve from there and as generally lightly raced individual it’s far from impossible that he can find more for natural improvement as well. Off a 72 mark he offers upside.
10pts win – Phoenix Beach @ 6/1
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5.25 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 5f
I’m really excited to see Captain Corcoran returning so quickly after his latest Catterick run. I believe this lad is in super form and ready to strike.
He caught the eye on his seasonal reappearance last month, where after an awkward start he was held up in rear and finished seriously well under and easy hands and heels ride after not getting a clear run until late.
He was clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards there and appeared on a lovely mark next time at Catterick, but he faced an uphill battle from the #4 draw.
The jockey seemed to try too hard (by design?) to overcompensate for this significant disadvantage over that course and distance and used a lot of energy but also giving ground away moving all the way across to the stands’ side.
Captain Corcoran looked threatening for a brief moment over 2 furlongs out but eventually faded.
As a result he dropped another two pounds. Now down to 52 he appears pretty well-handicapped with soft conditions likely to suit. The more rain that falls and is excepted tomorrow, the better for his chances.
Another pretty quiet week so far, but one that has been hugely successful: two winners on Tuesday, The Toff and later in the evening it was Papa Cocktail especially who ran out gutsy wins to land a rare 2 from 2 on the day.
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4.18 Cork: Conditions Race, 1m 2f
It’s always tricky to know how these 3-year-old horses have wintered and how fit they are on their fist run in the new season. This contest at Cork looks particularly trappy as four of the five runners have legitimate claims to develop into proper pattern class horses this year.
Nonetheless, Bertinelli appears somewhat underappreciated here. I would have expected him to be a bit shorter, given how highly I rate him. but can see why he’s not.
He is one of my Horses to Follow, and I firmly believe he’s got the potential to be a seriously good colt this year. In saying that, one may underestimate him if purely judged on the lack of perceived impressiveness of his sole victory as a juvenile.
That was his second and final start asa juvenile, when he battled hard to land a Dundalk maiden. He won by a neck, but the performance warrants an upgrade because the jockey reported that the colt got struck into behind and that had a major impact on how he ran.
With that in mind the Dundalk run was a fine follow-up on his eye-catching debut that came at Leopardwown where finished an excellent second place behind smart winner Peking Opera, while he didn’t enjoy quite a clear run from 2f out. He also achieved a promising 74 speed rating.
Bertinelli was also reported to be rather weak and had a lot of growing to do last year, which puts these two performances into even better perspective.
Apparently he has wintered really well and had been working nicely since being back in training before hitting a slight setback suffering from a stone bruise.
That’s a concern, but the fact he’s running today, still maintains all his fancy entries, and Ryan Moore coming to Cork, looks positive, as is the step up to 10 furlongs, which is an absolute must.
I’ve no doubts that he stays the Derby distance, and that, if all goes well, we’ll see him in one of the English or Irish Derby this year. But he looks speedy enough for 10 furlongs, and has already shown to handle slightly better ground, while his other rivals, with pedigrees have won in deep ground and look to need a trip on pedigree.
This is as low a price I ever back, but I’m more than hopeful Bertinelli can justify these odds to get his 3-year-old campaign off to the flyer.
Trappy contest given the unexposed form of half the field. I do like the exposed form of The Toff, though. He caught the eye the last time, and to a lesser degree also the time before.
At Southwell over a mile he simply didn’t see out the trip after overcoming a wide draw to challenge strongly from three furlongs out.
Last time out at Lingfield, dropped to 7 furlongs, was an interesting race that finished in a sprint finish. Even though he was able to track the pace, he didn’t receive the most economical ride and had to concede first run to the leader. He finished a strong second and the fastest horse in the last three furlongs.
He clearly is in prime form and ready to win. Still a maiden, though, not without promise shown multiple times, he was gelded in October and that may have contributed, in addition to a drop in his handicap mark, to those fine runs lately.
Seven furlongs with a solid pace should be an ideal scenario and is the likely one to be encountered in this race with plenty of pace excpected. This is an easier contest than last month – on paper, if there wouldn’t be all that unexposed form in this field – although, those handicap debutants enjoy only a fair opening mark at best.
He’s an uncomplicated sort, usually up with the pace, and should be able track whoever wants to burn himself out in the early parts. He’s in in strong form and looks primed for a yard that’s going well enough at the moment.
10pts win – The Toff @ 10/3
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8.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
The price is skinny enough, given his patchy record, but ultimately it feels like this is the day I have been waiting for to back Papa Cocktail.
He was a huge eyecatcher in a similar contest over this course and distance in February when he finished like a train from well off the pace despite not enjoying the clearest of runs. That forms is seriously strong as well.
A stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle where he moved forward to lead until steadily going backwards from about 2 furlongs out probably stretched his stamina, when last seen. It was also a stronger race.
Even though I believe 7 furlongs is possibly his optimum, perhaps a slightly less stiff track and more restraint ride should see him get the trip really well, I also think 6 furlongs with a good pace to aim at will suit him really well, too.
He should find this here. The #7 draw doesn’t worry me too much because he will be ridden off the pace in any case. I hope fore a no-nonsense ride with a challenge unleashed toward the stands’ side, for a clear run.
A mark off 63 gives him a tremendous chance. He caught the eye multiple times last year on turf as well. There is a reason why he’s fallen to such a low rating now, but he clearly showed a spark the last two times to assume he’ll be the one to beat in this contest.
But looking at the tracker for next week things are going to get hot. There are no less than 21 eyecatchers scheduled to run only from Monday to Wednesday alone The flat is back!
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4.30 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Not a particularly competitive race. El Royale saw some money this morning, and some of that may well be the “Billy factor” more than anything.
The horses drops down in trip and is unexposed, but strikes me as a weak favourite, nonetheless.
Phoenix Star and Concierge are the obvious interests for me, having caught the eye in their last runs. In saying that, the #8 draw isn’t ideal for Phoenix Star, who’s also one of the more popular horses in the market this morning.
High draws have a poor record over this course and distance. That aside, he strikes me as best over the minimum trip, perhaps with some cut in the ground. He’s yet to win over 6f on turf, hence Concierge is the more interesting horse today.
His record over 6 furlongs isn’t brilliant, either. However, he is a distance winner, even on good to soft in the past, has been able to stretch out to 7 furlongs, and has clearly the speed for the minimum trip (which may be his optimum).
In any case, I was impressed by his comeback run last month at Kempton, where he was a serious eyecatcher:
Concierge travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.
He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.
As a consequence he’s down another couple of pounds, a new career-lowest. He ran to a 64 speed rating at Kempton, though, suggesting there’s enough there to believe he can win.
Whether he is still as good as last season remains to be seen, now that he’s back on turf. Last year he ran well a number of times, including when achieving a 73 speed rating run at Newmarket over 6 furlongs.
He drops down to class 6 today – obviously he’s not the force of old, but this is much easier than anything he’s encountered even in the more recent past.
Even though I’m not totally sold on credentials over 6f on turf, I feel he’s still got too much class for these rivals. He definitely won’t mind the ground, looks to be in fine form, and if on a going day (i.e. allowed to run on merit) he could be hard to beat.
Can Noble Yeats “do a Tiger Roll”? Here’s a look at the main contenders and my attempt at solving the puzzle that is the 175th annual running of the Grand National.
A full field of 40 horses go to post with weights ranging from 11-12 to 10-2. It’s still a puzzle to solve, though, perhaps less the lottery and unpredictable race it was in the past.
Less difficult fences to jump, less carnage, less surprises. Class horses with big weights can win. The race looks completely different to those editions of half a century ago.
Last night I watched the wonderful DVD “12 Greatest Ever Grand Nationals” – great trip down the memory lane, but the race was a different kind of a beast compared to what it is these days.
The modern version of the Grand National is about class. Horses can certainly win with 11 stone plus on their back. We’ve seen it a number of times in more recent times.
Stamina is key, as a race over the marathon distance of 4m 2½f should be. Perhaps that makes it somewhat less a test of pure jumping ability. Personally I’m okay with this fact if it goes along with a safer race for horse and rider.
2023 Grand National Contenders
Favourite Corach Rambler is as short as 6/1 in the betting. There is certainly a form of recency bias included after his spectacular victory at the Cheltenham Festival.
Corach Rambler is a tricky sort, though. He needs to be ridden in a certain way and will require all the luck in the world to get a clear run from the back of the field.
It’ll require a lot of faith to back him at this rather skinny price. It sure is going to be the most spectacular victory should he pick his way through the field to win the Grand National.
Personally I find it hard to see how there could be any juice left in his price, though. There is no chance that I could make him a shorter price in my book. In fact, he’s too short, in my view.
Delta Work is the second choice in the market. He won the Cross-Country at the Festival for the second year running. He looked as good as ever when he beat well fancied stable mate Galvin last month.
He was third in the Grand National last year but also 22 lengths beaten. Perhaps a different ride could change his fortunes?
Possibly. Nonetheless, I find it hard to see how he could improve on that run twelve months later. He’s a well-exposed 10-year-old. One pound lower than last year won’t make a difference – a mark of 159 looks far from a giveaway.
Noble Yeats was a surprise winner last year. A surprise on the day more so for the general public than connections. They knew they had a tremendously well-handicapped horse on their hands. We know that by now as well.
He’s a classy individual and judged on his Gold Cup run – arguably the strongest performance by any horse in this years Grand National field – must be considered a prime contender once more, even off a much higher mark.
Tiger Roll proved you can win back-to-back and big weights aren’t a hindrance to winning the modern Grand National, either. Noble Yeats has to overcome a 19lb higher mark than twelve month ago, though.
That seems fair given the way he took his form to a new level this season, including that excellent 4th place finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But that extra weight is a game changer, I firmly believe.
Tiger Roll only had to content with an additional 9lbs when winning back-to-back. Noble Yeats, perhaps a better horse right now than Tiger Roll was when winning his second National, doesn’t appear to be necessarily unfairly handicapped. At the same time I fear this weight is too much even for the classy Noble Yeats.
If talking about Noble Yeats one has to mention last years runner-up Any Second. He was less than three lengths beaten and ran a huge race in defeat.
He’s arguably unlucky not to have won a Grand National by now, after a superb, and somewhat unlucky 3rd place two years ago.
He’s another year older. This is his third attempt and he’s 8lb higher than last year, 15lb higher than 2021. His preparation has been spot on and he should be right there when it matters, but anything better than finishing in the placings is hard to imagine.
Willie Mullins sends out a small army. His best shot – judged purely on odds – seems Gaillard Du Mesnil who won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month.
Perhaps he was a bit fortunate because he benefited in no uncertain terms from the fall of a threatening rival. That begs the question: would he be as short in the betting if he’d finished runner-up that day?
I think he’s a few points too short, and no value to back in this race. Although he should stay, and that may allow him to be right there when it matters most.
The other well fancied Willie Mullins runner is Mr Incredible. He seems to catch a bit of momentum in the betting. He’s a quite lightly raced 7-year-old with an abundance of improvement left over staying trips, I believe.
He ran on for third place in the Kim Muir last month and may have finished closer if not for making a huge mistake at the last fence that cost him vital momentum.
He was a good second in a hot Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Warwick prior as well. On both forms he looks at the very least fairly weighted on handicapping terms.
He strikes me as one who had a lovely preparation for the race with a mark that has been somewhat protected this season as he ran well without showing all his cards, possibly.
There is every chance he can improve. If he does indeed, he would be a well-handicapped horse. Obviously, with Mr Incredible, talent is only one side of the coin.
He’s a seriously tricky sort and will need quite a bit of luck, given he is likely to race in rear of the field. That’s the reason why there are still big prices available to back him, especially on the Exchanges. But if he gets a clear run I can see him go all the way.
Longhouse Poet was my fancy twelve months ago. He probably did too much too soon, chasing a pretty hot pace, before tiering badly for 6th place finish, 34 lengths behind the winner.
He’s a fair shot once again off a near similar mark, I reckon. Possibly ridden with a little bit more restraint this time, he should get home better. I still can’t quite shake the impression of how badly he faded last year, though.
Hennessy winner Le Milos looks intriguing off only 6lb higher than when he landed the big handicap at Newbury in November. He travelled strongly throughout the race, made lovely progress, before hitting the front in the home straight and fought gutsily to the line.
He had a lovely prep run in early March at Kelso in the meantime, most likely not fully tuned up and not given the best of rides. There were plenty of positives to take away from that reapperance, nonetheless.
Clearly the 8-year-old is still on the up and a stayer of great potential after only ten runs over fences, and three this season. In my view he looks like an ideal National horse.
He should have a prime chance. He’s a good jumper, can hold his position well and most likely has the stamina required for the National.
Galvin was always thought of as a National horse more so than one who wins Gold Cups. Therefore, he probably outran expectations somewhat when winning the Savills Chase and finished a fine 4th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup last year.
He’s not been the same horse this season. Apparently he had a back issue in preparation for the Cross-Country Chase; he still finished a strong runner-up behind stable mate Delta Work last month.
I fancied him there, but off a 166 rating, the same as Noble Yeats, I struggle to see how he can be handicapped to win. You would have to believe he’s as good a horse as Noble Yeats is at this moment in time.
Would Galvin have finished 4th in the Gold Cup this year? Most definitely not. He was 10/3 for the Savills Chase this season, when he finished second last, a long way beaten. He’s not the same horse this season as he was the season before.
Highly talented 7-yeaer-old Capodanno is an interesting runner. He’s got the class and is lightly raced. He was only seen once this season, since winning the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown a year ago. That’s far from ideal preparation and off-putting.
Sam Thomas saddles Our Power. A seriously progressive horse. Unbeaten this season in two runs. On a really fair mark. If he can extend to the National trip he’ll be a huge runner. But a son of Power – who I have seen myself at the Curragh win a National Stakes and Guineas – stretches my imagination to see how he could stay the distance.
2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier could have the required stamina and class. He finished a promising runner-up in the Bobbyjo Chase in February. His jumping can be a bit hit and miss, but he could be dangerous off 147 if he finds a good rhythm.
If you ignore The Big Breakaway’s poor showing at Cheltenham last month, one could make a solid argument for him to have the capabilities to outrun his big price tag.
He’s a strong stayer, was an excellent second in the Welsh National this season and may find back to his best with blinkers fitted.
I wouldn’t rule out Coko Beach to run well, either. He’s in good nick after landing a Grand National Trial in February and ran well for a long time in the Grand National last year. Ultimately he did way too much in front and didn’t get home.
If he can race with a little more restraint this time, he’s not without a chance to finish in the placings.
The Big Dog is a strong stayer and not out of it, although I feel he’s too high in the mark to be considered a contender for victory.
Same could be said about Lifetime Ambition, who’s got to content with a 8lb higher mark than in the Troytown Chase back in November, where he finished a fine runner-up behind The Big Dog, following on from a solid 4th in the Sefton over the National fences.
Unexposed Ain’t That A Shame looks to have been protected all season. he was a tough runner-up in the Munster National behind The Big Dog back in October. Only seen twice since then, one has to trust his fitness and stamina.
From the bigger prices Recite A Prayer is one who may outrun his odds. Second in the Kerry National at the beginning of the season; a Killarney National winner last year. He stays well but hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Eva’s Oskar has stamina in abundance, ultimately is not classy enough you would think, but is also one of the more realistic bigger prices to potentially hit the frame.
Summary:
The 2023 Grand National appears to be a wide open affair. Would Noble Yeats win again he’d be one of the all-time greats in my view. He looks all class and should run a huge race once again.
Yet, from a betting perspective I’ll can’t get passed the credentials Le Milos brings to the table.
He simply looks the ideal National horse to me. He’s had a lovely preparation. Showed strong form this season. Is still progressive and possibly better handicapped than he should.
He also remains underappreciated in the betting. He beat Corach Rambler comprehensively this season, yet is a multiple times the price of the favourite.
He receives 14lb from Noble Yeats. Possibly fair on a variety on ratings if purely judged on actual form. What may give him the edge, though: he’s a progressive stayer who continues to improve..
At the same time I can’t leave out Mr Incredible. He needs luck, and may be too far off the pace, ultimately. On the other hand he’s hugely talented and weighted to go seriously close – if things go well.
He’s a quirky sort, but if he gets a clear run he’ll look a huge price come the end of the race. This progressive and lightly raced individual impressed in the Kim Muir when last seen and has plenty of upside at this stage of his career.
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