All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Betting

Saturday Selections: Irish Champion Stakes Day 2017

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1.50 Haydock: Ascendant Stakes (Listed), 1m

Some interesting contenders here; soft ground winners Dee Ex Bee and Dark Acclaim make plenty of appeal. I, however, think Godolphin’s Dubhe looks one with a massive amount of improvement to come.

He left a fair debut behind when landing a maiden in soft conditions at Sandown. While that was not a true test and he holding the advantage as the sole front-runner, the fact that he won easily going away in the end in a sprint finish, while it looks abundantly clear that he needs further sooner rather than later, was impressive.

He stays over the mile trip, which in heavy conditions with potentially a quicker pace should suit him down to the grounds to play out class and stamina.

Superbly bred, by Dubawi out of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens, I feel he takes plenty of beating and therefore Dubhe is a tasty price.

Selection:
10pts win – Dubhe @ 5/1 Bet365

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5.05 Leopardstown: Group 3 Enterprise Stakes, 1m 4f

Eziyra is a fair favourite given her impressive form this season to make it back to back wins for trainer Dermot Wel. Though, Spanish Step has won a Group 3 earlier this season and has a fair shout here too.

That says stable mate and former Derby runner-up US Army Ranger is the x-factor in the race.

He drops in class and trip, and this combination should see him go very close judged on ratings. Yes, he has been a major disappointment ever since coming close to land the big prize at Epsom, however he still ran to a time speed rating of 94 when last seen, which is still the best in this field.

Selection:
10pts win – US Army Ranger @ 6/1 Bet365

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5.35 Leopardstown: Group 1 Matron Stakes, 1m

The class act is Winter. If all goes to plan she wins. She has a top draw and the bit of rain that may leave a bit of softness in ground won’t bother her.

In my mind she can only be beaten if the long season has left a mark on her. Then the French raider Qemah comes into the equation. Her wide draw is an issue, nonetheless she remains a big price and has a better chance.

The winner of last years Coronation Stakes had a light campaign up until now, won at Royal Ascot earlier this season and was an unlucky 4th behind Roly Poly in the Prix Rothschild when last seen.

At her best, and if she can overcome the draw disadvantage with the magic man in the saddle, she has a chance to trouble Winter.

Selection:
10pts win – Qemah @ 7/1 Bet365

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6.45 Leoapardstown: Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, 1m 2f

Twelve months ago it was the race of the races – something we racing fans hope for but see not enough of: the best take on the best. On the flat the best often try to avoid each other, if possible. The Irish Champion Stakes stood true to its name in 2016, though, and saw the best battle it out with the very best.

This year looked for a while a slightly underwhelming race in prospect. The stars of last year are either under performing or retired. However the week leading up to the big enjoyed a timely boost with the conformation of smart Eminent giving it a go against the almighty Churchill.

Eminent has enhanced his credentials with an impressive front-running performance in a Group 2 over 10 furlongs at Deavuille last month, after three winless efforts at the highest level. Is he quite up to the standard required to beat Churchill? We find out today.

The dual Guineas winner proved satisfactory his stamina when runner-up in the Juddmonte International. So neither ground nor trip hold any fear for the highest rated individual in this field.

He’s got the perfect draw and the help of one or two stable mates likely setting a good pace – I find it hard to look beyond him, to be honest. Yes, Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Decorated Night, or stable mate and Derby second Cliffs Of Moher are fine horses in their own right. But this looks all set for another Group 1 victory for Churchill.

Selection:
10pts win – Churchill @ 11/10 PP

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Friday Selections: 8th September 2017

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5.00 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1 mile

I was keen on Big Baz when he ran a blinder in the big Logistics Handicap at York a fortnight ago. He finished an excellent sixth that day in a hot contest suggesting he’s back to somewhere near his best.

The handicapper dropped him 2lb subsequently which should give him a massive chance to outrun his price tag today given conditions will surely suit well with cut in the ground over his preferred trip.

Selction: 
10pts win – Big Baz @ 10/1 Bet365

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5.30 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

The lightly raced favourite African Friend looks sure to go well, though I prefer the experience of Duke Cosimo who drops to a dangerous mark here.

He hasn’t won for a long time, however showed some spark at Redcar when last seen in a hot race that already works out quite well. Softish ground is no issue for him and a 3lb claimer on board should help too.

Selection: 
10pts win – Duke Cosimo @ 14/1 PP

 

 

Betting

Tuesday Selections – 29th August 2017

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Ended last week with a bang – Teodoro made all to win easily at Yarmouth despite drifting out to 8/1. So broke even for the week in the end. Not a bad result given how badly it started.

Can things look brighter this week? Granted today is my birthday, here’s hoping for a big winner!

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4.30 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Monticello struggled the last two times, however a drop in class may help. He also tackles older horses with WFA allowance still an advantage I feel.

He’s won only twice in his career, over 7f, though showed strong performances over 10f in hot class Handicaps earlier this year. The drying ground should help too.

Sire Teofilo does extremely well at this track and trip, and the usually prominent racing style of Monticello can often be a bonus at Ripon.

Selection:
10pts win – Monticello @ 14/1 Skybet

Betting

Sunday Selections: 27th August 2017

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Flymetothestars cruelly denied in the closing stages of the Ebor… kind of sums up this week. Thankfully Hochfeld went on to win impressively at Newmarket (4/1) to lessen the agony.

In the evening over in the US there was some fantastic racing at Saratoga on Travers Day. It was an impressive coast-to-coast success for Mike Smith (yet again) the winning jockey on West Coast in the feature race.

However it was the Sword Dancer Stakes on turf that caught my eye even more. Aiden O’Brien trained Idahoo was the favourite, though faded badly. The home team landed the big money in a thrilling finish. Well worth to watch back as Julien Leparoux gave the winning Sadler’s Joy a tremendous joy, utilizing the special change of gear this improving individual possesses.

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2.55 Yarmouth: Class 4 Novice Stakes, 6f

Hard to know what to expect of this lot, however I happily take a chance on Frankel filly Ganayem. She cost some serious money as a yearling and naturally has a sensational pedigree, being not a daughter of the almighty Frankel but also half-sister to some graded winners on the dam side.

She has an entry for the Group 2 Rockfell Stakes next month, so you would expect she has to be ready if she wants to run there. As far as today goes, Frankel offspring tends to perform exceptionally well over the 6f trip on fast ground. He has a 70% win record with his two year olds under these conditions.

Selection: 
10pts win – Ganayem @ 5/1 Bet365

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4.05 Yarmouth: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

This race looks more open on paper than the betting suggests. Neither Another Eclipse nor Mafaaheem are deserve to be so much more fancied than some others in the field.

Mostly I feel hat-trick seeking Teodoro is the one all have to beet. He sets the standard in my mind. Yes, he steps up into unknown territory class wise, however his last two wins indicate that he clearly belongs here.

Upped in class and a revised mark make life tougher today, no doubt. Still, the combination of a hood fitted and more prominent racing tactics have seen this son of Teofilo transformed. He keeps improving and as 3yo old April foal he may not be the finished article yet.

Selection:
10pts win – Teodoro @ 7/1 Bet365

Betting

Saturday Selections – Ebor Day 2017

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Still searching for the elusive first winner of the week. Another rather disappointing run from my selection Galactic at Salisbury yesterday. Let’s not dwell on it. Huge day today. Ebor day!

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2.25 York: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f

Irish St. Leger winner Jukebox Jury has an outstanding record with his first three year old’s in Britain. Contributing towards this has been the Mark Johnston trained Dominating, who ha won already three times this year.

In fact in his last five starts Dominating has either won or finished second. The handicapper starts to catch up and going up significantly in class doesn’t make things easier.

Still, at a big price and off a very low weight, with conditions likely to suit, he can run a big race and cause an upset I feel.

Selection: 
10pts win – Dominating @ 33/1 Paddy Power

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3.35 York: Class 2 Ebor Handicap, 1m 6f 

Normally it is not my style punting the favourite in a big Handicap as the Ebor undoubtedly is, however there is so much to like about Flymetothestars that I can’t ignore the facts and feel despite being plenty short enough for a race like this there is still juice in the price.

Why? Well, you can try and read what you want into his form this season, whether a third in the Northumberland Plate was a slight disappointment or not, but fact is this lad is the least exposed in the field, who tackles turf for the first time from the lower end of the weight scale.

There is very chance for further improvement to come. He is a well bred son of Sea The Stars, so ground and trip aren’t an issue at all and his older sons are progressing.

The draw is an issue so is the fact Flymetothestars can be very keen early on. Also does missing the kick become a habit? Nonetheless if the stars fall right then he is very hard to beat indeed.

Selection:
10pts win – Flymetothestars @ 8/1 Bet365

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3.50 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f

The three year old Hochfeld has a prime chance here returning to the most suitable 1m 6f trip. His runner-up performance behind Tor at Hamilton is a very strong piece of form. A return to that will see him hard to beat here.

He is still progressing after a busy juvenile campaign won twice at the beginning of the year and followed up with the strong mentioned performance at Hamilton. A slightly disappointing run at Goodwood the last time, though conditions may have been against him.

Selection:
10pts win – Hochfeld @ 4/1 Bet365

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4.15 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 7.5f 

This today is arguably the toughest test of his long career, yet Echo Of Lightning appears still improving at the grand age of 7 as he has won already three times this year and has been impressively consistent over the last 12 months.

He has to defy a career highest mark and an impressive display at Pontefract earlier this month, though he might have been helped by the rain and small field.

Nonetheless the numbers tell he improved in each of his last five runs and with a decent draw, a bit of cut in the ground and a sort of specialist trip at a specialist track, he can run big I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Echo Of Lightning @ 15/2 Skybet

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7.55 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

At 16’s I’m happy to take a punt on Majestic Stone who lost his race at the start when seen last and has to bounce back from that. He’s never been the best starter, so that is an obvious concern, however the return to quick ground is a big plus.

His best performance to date came on good to firm at Thirsk in April. He was unlucky the day and the form has been franked. Up four pounce from there he has confirmed he is up to that sort of mark the next time, however with cut in the ground.

Slight change of gear today, better ground and hopefully a better start may him see go close at a big price.

Selection:
10pts win – Majestic Stone @ 16/1 Bet365

Betting

Friday Selections: 25th August 2017

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That was special, wasn’t it? Yet again. Enable keeps giving and giving and giving. What a star filly once more in the care of John Gosden. Sure, she was entitled to win and to win with something to spare. Still, to demolish her high class rivals in the way she did – you simply have to be impressed.

All systems go for the Arc now. She is a short favourite to land the biggest of them all. If she turns up in top form she will take plenty of beating. That says we know the Arc is a unique race in its own right and in a big field the draw can alienate chances in the blink of an eye.

Anyways; that’s for another day. For now, sit back and enjoy racing at its best:

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6.20 Salisbury: Class 5 Nursery, 1m

27 alerts in my tracker this morning – yet only one single selection remains after a long morning of intense study. This week has not been a lucky one so far. Can a Richard Hannon trained colt turn the table?

Galactic is his name and he is quite a well bred son of Roderic O’connor. Three obligatory starts in maidens, now first time in a Nursery and upped to a more suitable 1 mile trip – off a pretty handy opening mark, I reckon Galatctic can go really well in this very winnable race.

Selection:
10pts win – Galactic @ 11/2 Bet365

 

Betting

Thursday Selections: 24th August 2017

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Not often you see a horse strongly travelling, in fact cantering all over his rivals until nearly the final furlong marker in a premier Group 1 race. If it happens it must rate as a special performance. So it was. Take a bow Ulysses. That was spectacular!

I made him the favourite in my book, however felt the rain might count slightly against him. How wrong I was. I was also wrong doubting Churchill’s staying ability. How dare I doubt a son of Galileo?! He wasn’t quite good enough in the end, but confirmed that he is all class.

But sometimes you bump into a better one. This one was Ulysses today. Another late bloomer so speak in the care of brilliant Sir Michael.

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3.00 York: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Big Baz is a big prize and hasn’t shown too much this season to warrant a awful lot of respect. Still, it would be foolish to rule him out completely in a race that takes a bit of luck to win anyways.

What will the ground be like? There is no further rain expected, or at least not a lot, temperatures are balmy, so it might be good to soft, good in places by race time I reckon. That’s fair enough. Big Baz has form on softish ground but also on quicker surfaces, so that side of the equation won’t be an issue I think. Trip suits fine, no problem.

His Newbury Cup performance off 7lb higher back in April gives him a shot at this with the ease in the mark surely a help. The draw isn’t ideal, though, and Big Baz is not a confident selection, but is a value price in my book, nonetheless.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Baz @ 66/1 Paddy Power

Betting

Wednesday Selections – Juddmonte International 2017

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Big drift in the betting for Tuesday’s selection Alternate Route. So it was no surprise to see having a slow start to his race and as a consequence were never really in it.

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2.25 York: Group 3 Acomb Stakes, 7f

Dee Ex Bee was mightily impressive on debut at Goodwood. That looks rock solid form but it was more virtually plus on the clock what impressed me. He made all, going aggressively forward right from the start and found a lot when asked serious questions.

Granted the soft ground probably helped in terms of how far the rest of the field trailed him in the end and there will be different ground conditions here – however any rain will help, and with significant amounts of showers on their way he should be fine on ground that is likely not lightning fast.

He clocked a superb 89 TS on debut. With natural improvement and a top draw, this son of Farhh, who has had an excellent start with his first crop, should be very hard to beat.

Selection:
10pts win – Dee Ex Bee @ 9/4 bet365

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3.35 York: Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, 1m 2f

Cracking renewal and five of the seven starters have strong credentials to land the big pot. Eclipse winner and King George runner-up Ulysses sets the standard in my mind. Drop in trip will suit after being outstayed at Ascot by star filly Enable.

He travelles strongly through his races and no more so at Sandown when wearing Barney Roy down. Slight concern is the rain coming. He obviously has fine form with cut in the ground in the book, however to my eye is clearly at his best when the ground is fast.

Whether Barney Roy truly wants 10 furlongs remains to be seen. Any rain will hinder his chances I believe and while he is certainly a top class colt I don’t think he should be the favourite.

2000 Guineas winner Churchill returns after being taken out at Goodwood and a lackluster performance at Royal Ascot. He is by Galileo so the step up to 10f may not be as big an issue as some commentators make it out to be. He also has form on slow ground in case the rain would have a big impact.

However how much more can he improve for the new trip? He’s already had 9 career starts and his target was clearly the Guineas.

Aiden O’Brien’s “second” string, Derby runner-up Cliffs Of Moher appears to be a more interesting contender. He probably was a bit unlucky in the Eclipse when he finished fourth, as he was badly hampered in the middle of the race and lost all momentum.

He’s still only had five runs and can still improve. 10f on any sort of ground will suit and interestingly he is the only one who already matched a 112 top speed rating that otherwise only Ulysses has been able to achieve.

The filly Shutter Speed beat Enable earlier the year and that sort of performance gives her a chance. Nonetheless she has a bit to find with the boys I feel. It’s a tough task for her, though interesting to see a tongue tie applied for the first time.

You can’t fully discount Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Decorative Knight. He was well held in the Eclipse Stakes after clipping heels midterm. Could run well for a big price.

Selection:
10pts win – Cliffs Of Moher @ 11/2 Paddy Power

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Tuesday Selections: 22nd August 2017

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Wasn’t to be on Monday. Sacred Way ran a big race for a big price as hoped, just he couldn’t peg back the front-running winner and finished 2nd.. Perfect Symphony was way too keen early to land a blow when it mattered, unfortunately.

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5.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Maiden Handicap, 1m 4f

Mark Prescott seems to have found yet again a superb opportunity for one of his lesser lights. Alternate Route is likely a very ordinary individual, though surely better than what we saw in three maiden runs on the All-Weather.

Handicapping was always the target with him and now stepping up to suitable 12 furlongs he could easily exploit his feather weight in a race against other winless individuals.

His sire New Approach has a sensational record at the Yarmouth venue, the fast ground should help on Handicap debut over the new trip, and a good draw is an added bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Alternate Route @ 9/2 Skybet

Betting

Monday Selections: 21/08/2017

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Disappointment with Lomu at Ponti today. Pulled his race away early on as was my main fear. Drop to 7f with pace should suit and this lad has still something to offer.

Still a brilliant week, with 6 winners from 16 selections for a 190.63pts profit. No complaints as the general positive form from spring has clearly translated into summer and hopefully well into autumn, the season I traditionally have struggled in the past.

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2.45 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

This appears to be an open contest with a good handful on seemingly handy marks, however the standard is set by Perfect Symphony I feel, who does not get enough credit in the betting for his last two performances.

He showed promise as a juvenile last year and continued this trend in two of three starts this year since returning to the track as a gelding. The last two at Pontefract, probably not quite getting the breaks when needed.

I loved Perfect Symphony’s most recent run a good month ago there over 6f, when travelling well but conceding first run by the eventual winner while he had to wait for the gap to open and show some elbows to go through, yet he found plenty once in the clear.

Step up to 7f for the first time should suit on pedigree, his sire has a really good record over this trip and the dam raced over further. He seems to settle well in his races so over-exuberance shouldn’t be an issue here.

Selection:
10pts win –  Perfect Symphony @ 8/1 Bet365

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4.15 Thirsk: Maiden Stakes, 7f

Naaeebb looks a wrong price. Yes, the form looks great, but he finished a long way down the field so hard to say he’s anywhere near as good as those promising individuals ahead of him.

Fair favourite should be the relatively consistent Dance Teacher. However she finds it hard to get her head in front and may find one better yet again.

I do not often go with an unraced newcomer and usually get burned, but given their is a clear lack of depth in this maiden race I feel Kevin Ryan’s expensive yearling Sacred Way is worth a nibble.

Fetched gns 115k as a yearling and makes a belated debut, already gelded. So things clearly didn’t go to plan. Nonetheless he is related so some fine individuals and if he can overcome inexperience and a less than ideal draw can win.

There is an interesting fact he has on his side: sire stats. Oasis Dream has a tremendous record at Thirsk with his 3yo offspring. So at 14’s I’m happy to back his son in this contest.

Selection:
10pts win – Sacred Way @ 14/1 Skybet