5.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 6f
Top weight Angel Flores makes plenty of appeal from a good draw if he enjoys the soft ground. A better alternative is Mrs Warren who gets a chance from the handicapper. Not disgraced at Galway recently, the drop to 6f suits, she loves every drop of rain in the ground, has a good draw and will be competitive off her current mark. Big chance.
Mrs Warren @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
3.00 Ripon: Handicap Class 2, 6f
Bottom weight Art Obsession could be massively underestimated if the drop in trip does the trick for him. Still lightly raced, one can excuse his latest performance which the first below par one in his career. He proved to be consistent in six starts before.
He’s unproven over 6f and it could well be all happing a bit too quick here for him, but he usually shows good early speed over 7f, so it may well work. He has form on soft ground as well, so on balance might find conditions just about right. With an excellent 5lb claimer on board today he comes into this race as an absolute feather weight, and I find that hugely attractive.
Art Obsession @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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4.15 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Super well bred Illusive has never lived up to his pedigree (full-brother to Rip Van Winkle) and has left Aiden O’Brien’s camp over the winter. Leaving his seasonal comeback run aside, he has performed with loads of credit in his last couple of starts. Stepped up to 9f at Goodwood the last time, he was probably a shade unlucky as he didn’t get a clear run ofer 2f out but finished like a train.
He is 3lb up for this effort, however goes up another furlong in trip which could work well for him. More importantly he gets soft ground for the first time since winning on this type of ground a competitive maiden at Leopardstown almost exactly one year ago. That may enable him to pull out a bit more today.
Illusive @ 8/1 Beftred – 5pts Win
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8.05 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
Fine Tune hasn’t anything in three maidens for John Gosden last year. Subsequently sold, he starts for a new yard today in his first handicap. He has been gelded in the meantime, which is why I’m mostly interested in him. This often works wonders for his father Medicean’s offspring.
He hasn’t shown anything to warrant an opening mark of 55 and the yard is in poor form. So he well finish last. But the trip should work in his favour and he is related to some decent individuals, which means potentially he could be better than his current rating. It’s worth a try.
Fine Tune @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
3.10 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
I don’t understand why Beach Bar is such a big price. This progressive gelding absolutely hammered a decent field on his penultimate start and was utterly unlucky the last time at Newmarket when he got stuck in traffic on the inside rail but stayed on very well late when in the clear.
That performance indicates he may can overcome his career highest mark. Today looks a good opportunity for a big run with the trip to suit and the soft ground no inconvinience, which can’t be said for all in this field.
Beach Bar @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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3.45 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2), 7f
Here Comes When tops the list as the most likely winner. He hasn’t been disgraced in top class company this year and will thrive in these conditions. Same goes for last years winner Breton Rock, although this years renewal looks much stronger.
But from a price perspective I can’t leave Heavens Guest out. He may not be good enough at this level, but has been in outstanding form lately and deserves a go at this. He’ll love the soft ground and is a 7f specialist – he can go close.
Hugely underestimated seems to be That Is The Spirit. He also one who needs it soft and seems best suited to the 7f trip. He won a Listed race in excellent style earlier this year and has excuses for two hist last two poor showings.
That Is The Spirit @ 22/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Heavens Guest @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
3.20 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 3f
It highly likely that Sagaciously is well in today and may be hard to beat if runs to his potential. Trip and ground will suit, no doubt. But it’s a big field and he is badly drawn out in the carpark. I feel he is a decent price, but I don’t want to invest in it.
Fellow three year old Process makes plenty of appeal at a much bigger price in my mind. He didn’t impress in his last two starts but bumped into very progressive individual and the forms of those races holds up. With a mark off 87 he is now only 2lb higher than when winning a good Handicap at Kempton, so he may be well treated today going against older horses for the first time .
The weight for age allowance should be a big help as he’s quite a big, scopey horse, and looks very mature. From the bottom of the weights he should fare well in this field where many are exposed. The softish ground is an unknown, but his sire thrived on it. So it’s well worth a try.
Process @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
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3.35 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f
Unexposed handicap newcomer Burner must have an excellent chance to open his account. He’s not all too badly bred, half-brother Magic Of Reality. He showed some promise in three maidens but will find it now easier in handicaps. His opening mark is fair, and the step up in trip is interesting. He has a good chance to stay on quick ground.
The son of High Chaparral has been gelded since his last run, an action that should yield in improvement as it often does for HC offspring. There is some fair opposition in the field, but if Burner shows the natural progress that is expected he’ll be hard to beat.
Burner @ 3/1 Betfred – 10pts Win
7.25 Leopardstown: Desmond Stakes (Group 3), 1m
It’s easy to see why Cougar Mountain is odds-on. He took on some of the hottest milers in the world this season and didn’t fare to badly. I feel, though, he has been flattered by the results. he doesn’t seem to have the cruising speed required to win at top level. Nonetheless that gives him a clear shot at an easier target today. He’s vulnerable to the younger horses, though.
Of the tiro of three year olds, Tamadhor is hard to fancy, but Convergence and Raydara must have excellent chances to win this race. The former one has already won a Group 3 at this track earlier this year. He carries a penalty for the success but with further improvement might be able to defy it.
However everything points to a big run of Raydara. The filly is a juvenile Group 2 winner and will appreciate the quick ground today. It was a tough assignment to kick off her classic campaign in the Irish 1.000 Guineas where she didn’t land a blow, not surprisingly. But her subsequently 4th place in the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes rates a big performance. She travelled like the winner until the final furlong marker, found the 9f trip then a bit too far eventually.
Dropped back to a mile, on quick ground, she should be a big runner. She receives tons of weight all around from her rivals and on this terms she looks the most likely winner in the race for me. I consider her to be overpriced at 7/2 in this small field.
Raydara @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win
Banging on the post at the moment…. and it hurts. Massive performance from Commodore at Kempton last night, overcame the widest draw and finished strongly… however to win you had to be positioned in front pack of the race, where the eventual winner came from. another runner-up effort. It’s one of those losing runs I guess…
4.25 Salisbury: Sovereign Stakes (Group 3), 1m
Plenty of classy individuals in the line-up; last years winner Captain Cat will have a shot again but may find this a hotter renewal. Custom Cut at head of the field is likely to run his usual race from the front. He’s always dangerous if allowed to lead. His penalty won’t make it easy when it’s crunch time, though.
Classy Kodi Bear heads the challenge of the classic generation. His weigh for age allowance is a big asset and he hasn’t done much wrong this year. He’ll be very competitive, however I feel he is not the right price in this competitive field. Tullius drops back to 1m which may not suit on the quick ground. But he certainly has found his form again.
Even the big outsiders Short Squeeze and Dark Emerald can’t be discounted here and have a chance to pick up some price money. But the 6/1 for progressive Moohaarib looks over the top. He flopped in the Lockinge, but that was a Group 1 and he may not have shown his true class that day. Imagine he wouldn’t have run that day and would come into today with his penultimate form, he’d be clear favourite I guess.
He looked smart when winning a Listed contest at Ascot, travelling like a dream and never saw the whip. If he can find back to that form he’ll be hard to beat I feel.
Moohaarib @ 6/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
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6.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
You can easily discount half the field here, but the front two horses in the market have strong credentials to be the ones fighting it out. Alfajer judged on her recent efforts hast to go close; whether she will truly stay the trip is another matter. For that reason, as well as her revised mark, she is short enough a price.
The most likely winner is Wee Jean in my eyes. She can make it three on the bounce tonight. The trip may not quite her optimum but she stays it and while she has to overcome a high enough mark, tonight is the ideal opportunity to do so.
Nonetheless the best value in the field represents 9/1 chance Sulaalaat. Forgive her the last performance at Newmarket, she is better judged on her strong Listed effort at Royal Ascot where she attempted to make all. The mile trip should be what she wants judged on her pedigree, and she probably hasn’t shown us her best yet.
In my eyes she deserves another chance and today is a good opportunity to prove whether she is a half decent filly or not. First time head gear could make a big difference, and if can squeeze out a bit of improvement, she will go very close here.
Sulaalaat @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win
The Vincent Delaney Memorial weekend is the highlight of the Irish harness racing season. Reason enough for me to get down to Portmanock where Ireland’s premier harness raceway is located. Haven’t been to harness racing for many years – the last time must have been a decade ago in Berlin at “Trabrennbahn Mariendorf” – I was intrigued to see how the experience would compare to the Irish thoroughbred racing scene.
So, last Sunday was some kind of new land for me, although I had in mind to go to Portmanock for quite a while. But if you’re not actively looking for it you wouldn’t know it’s on, never mind there is such thing as harness racing in Ireland. Finding the track itself can be a bit troublesome as well, if you’re not familiar with the area.
But once you’re there it’s just great fun. Obviously the crowd is different to what you would meet on a balmy Sunday afternoon at the Curragh. It’s a bit more raw, I’d say. Well, “honest”, is probably the right word. I certainly enjoyed. Some pints, some bets, you’re close to the action…. it’s a great day out!
8.10 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap ,7f
Tricky affair but freshly gelded Commodore could be the answer, despite a bad draw. He was unlucky not to win at Sandown on his penultimate start. Subsequently failed to deliver off his revised mark at Newmarket, though didn’t have the run of the race going for himself.
He can be better than that and now switched to the All-Weather should suit. Going against older horses shouldn’t be an issue but the weight for age allowance can make a huge difference in a race that lacks depth. He probably doesn’t need to improve allot to be in the shake-up, but the fact that sons of Kodiac often show dramatic improvements for being gelded, there is every chance he can be a big runner tonight.
Commodore @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win
4.30 Ayr: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
In my eyes this looks wide open. While I understand why First Sitting is fancied, I fail to understand why he is such a short price. A dozen others in this field have to enter calculations too and he is simply on of the better chances in this race.
Most appeal on the given prices makes Urban Moon, who looks way overpriced here after slipping down to a very attractive mark. He won a hot Curragh Handicap last year and proved to have trained on when 1½ lengths beaten earlier this year at the same venue in a big Handicap of a mark off 93.
Two subsequent runs in the UK have yielded in two poor showings, but he has fallen down to a mark off 82 now! With the softish ground to suit, and the drop back to 10f not inconvenient, he must rate a prime chance in this field off this mark, if he can find back his form.
That is obviously the main question: What has been the reason for these last two performances? Given the race and price he is, I feel it’s a worthy risk to have a nibble on him.
Urban Moon @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win
5.20 Lingfield: Nursery, Class 6, 6f
This is a poor race and only a handful should have a chance. Most interesting is Cross Examine who makes his nursery debut off a potentially low mark. He didn’t show all too much in three maidens but is expected to improve now switched to this company.
He has been gelded since his last run and stats tell his trainer gets these things more often than not right. Cross Examine comes from a good family, is related to some fine talent and has the assistance of a top class rider today – he must be a prime chance in this field.
Cross Examine @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win
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