Tag Archives: Tuesday

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 18th June 2024

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Kiss And Run overcame a shaky start at Windsor last night to win with a bit of authority in the end. With a better break she would have won with plenty of hand in that race.

Another winner for June. A rollercoaster, after a poor weekend; at least I back some winners again and keep it an open month to finish finally in green again.

…….

4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – St James’s Palace Stakes, 1m

This looks a deep renewal. Multiple Classic winners in the field and a good pace looks assured to make it a proper race.

Notable Speech heads the market a short 5/4 favourite. You can see why: his impressive runaway victory at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas was visually and on the clock seriously arresting.

He clearly profited from a hot pace that day and not getting involved in the early pace battle too. Travelling toward the rear on the outside, he was well placed and made smooth progress to kick away from subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Rosallion.

Unbeaten in four starts now, of course he must have a prime chance today. There is no value in his price, though. Ascot is a different track, this race may pan out differently, and the ground is quite a bit faster as well. Notable Speech is the likeliest winner at this stage, but perhaps a bit short, given the depth of this field.

You would think Newmarket runner-up Rosallion can finish a bit closer this time. He got a little bit earlier involved, notably travelling strongly, at Newmarket, and finished a gallant second. He got his Classic win a few weeks later at the Curragh with an impressive finish to deny stable mate Haatam.

The slight knock on him is the fact he’s yet to run a speed rating 100+ in six career starts. He contested 5 Listed or Group races, though. Ample opportunity, actually.

Sometimes that’s down to circumstances, but I wonder whether we let visuals dictate how we perceive the chances of Rosallion.

French Guineas winner Metropolitan profited from a low draw and a perfect racing position where he got first run on Dancing Gemini, the eventual runner-up.

Fast ground is a concern, and I need to see him do this again before I believe he’s that good. He clearly enjoyed the run of the race at Longchamp.

Unquestionable was beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas by over six lengths. But he needed the run, according to his trainer. He looked like that, for sure.

A progressive juvenile, who landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he should come on for the run, love the fast ground and has a nice draw. He could outrun his price.

Alyanaabi ran a strong race in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Probably on the wrong side of the pace, he travelled without cover and closer than ideal to the hot pace. He did well to finish as close as he did, but was keen early on and needs to settle today, if any chance for a finish in the money.

Almaqam has won twice this year. He steps up in class in no uncertain terms. The quality could be there, for all he’s got plenty to find, not least on speed ratings, where a best 74 won’t cut it here today.

Progressive French raider Darlinghurst doesn’t look the right sort today, given fast ground and a mile, judged by his profile.

That leaves one horse to talk about: Henry Longfellow. No surprise, he’s one of the horses to follow this year.

His seasonal reappearance at Longchamp in the French 2000 Guineas was a total nightmare. Whether by design – tactical error – or necessity, he got shuffled back soon after the start, making his decent draw redundant. Halfway through he received a little check and fell even further back.

With only one horse behind him over 2 furlongs from home he had no chance to finish in the placings even. Not the clearest of passages either, nonetheless from 1.5 out he ran home nicely to suggest he has trained on.

The yard keeps the faith and repeatably said they still believe he’s a really good colt. And so do I. Today is a new day, different race, different track, different ground.

The better ground should be a clear advantage. He’s yet to race on ground this fast, but his dam won a Group 1 on fast ground, and sons of Dubawi usually don’t mind the type of underfoot conditions.

He should be a better 3-year-old than he was a juvenile. And he was a top-class juvenile. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs last season.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

He achieved two 100+ speed ratings in those last two races in 2023. The sign of potential superstar, if he could train on. He has to improve today, of course, given the depth of this field.

I’m mostly concerned about the draw. It may invite Ryan Moore to settle for a position off the pace once again. However, I feel Henry Longfellow has stamina beyond this trip and would benefit from tracking the pace, no matter how hot it’s going to be.

Depending how the race pans out in the early stages, Moore may have to settle off the pace, no matter what he would want to do in an ideal world. But I hope he tries to get to a position no further back than midfield or 4-5 lengths off the lead, to be in with a shot to swing around the home bend and go for gold three furlongs out.

10pts win – Henry Longfellow @ 9/2

………

7.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap, 7.5f

Port And Starburd ran a huge race ten days ago over this course and distance in a slightly stronger race. She wasn’t helped early on by a rival who came swinging around the outside to complete for the lead and it seemed to set her alight.

She travelled strongly chasing the leader eventually, possibly was even ahead with half a furlong to go, but had to pay tribute and was beaten by two rivals with more restraint.

The filly is 0/5 but can race off the same mark. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go really close once again, especially as he may bounce out and get an easy lead this time.

She clearly improved for moving up in trip and has every chance on pedigree to stay this distance, perhaps even an additional half furlong, to stretch out to a mile.

Slight concern is the soft ground. This most recent run came on a fast surface; on the other hand, on debut, she finished a strong 4th on soft ground.

10pts win – Port And Starburd @ 9/2

……..

8.30 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Barnsnape Boy looks underestimated here if allowed to run on merit. Still a maiden, this filly caught the eye the last two times thanks to her aggressive front-running style.

Ten days ago she set a hot pace from a wide draw. She had the field on the stretch and was still in the mix entering the final furlong. She must be in good form and clearly on winnable mark in order to that.

She was way too fast in the first half of the race at Carlisle at the end of May where she led until the final furlong once again.

The fact she acts on fast ground is a positive as Brighton and fast ground over this trip lends itself to blast away and play “catch me if you can”. She’s another couple of pounds lower today, in a weak race where she could be able to dominate from her draw.

I like the fact that a stronger jockey is in the saddle. It’s also Trevor Whelan’s only ride today. The price drift is a worry, of course, and if she’s tried to be restraint we’ll know our fate right away. But if allowed to move to the front, she could be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Barnsnape Boy @ 15.5/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 4th June 2024

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8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Eldeyaar can be a frustrating sort, only two wins on the sand, while seemingly catching the eye on multiple occasions throughout his career, this lad is difficult to catch. Saying that, today looks a prime chance to score.

The 5-year-old gelding ran a massive race last time out over this course and distance. He was caught wide thanks to his draw and moved forward in the fastest part of the race on the outside to get close to the leader.

He made a strong move from 3 furlongs out and only got caught late, deep inside the final furlong, by two horses staying on from off the pace.

The handicapper has let his grip go, and Eldeyaar can race off 51 today once again. Though, he drops down a bit in class, and should have too much class, so to speak, for his rivals in this 0-55 Handicap, with his form and wellbeing assured over a course and distance all his sand wins have come.

Top pilot Callum Rodriguez is in the saddle today, and a decent #5 draw should help him not getting caught wide this time. He’s usually quick into stride, so a good position chasing the pace should be where we see him settle and then hopefully run away with it in the home straight.

Quite a bit of money is on its way this morning. Of course I missed the boat, checking my trackers too late. Currently 7/2 looks a big enough price, still, though, in a poor contest.

10pts win – Eldeyaar @ 7/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 28th May 2024

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3.45 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Ten Furlongs, fast ground, an easier grade, blinkers back on: this looks an ideal opportunity for Night Bear to score again.

He ran well over the last number of weeks, either third or fourth in his last four starts. He was eye-catching at Lingfield two back, and also the way he showed an excellent attitude when under pressure last time at Kempton.

I feel Night Bear is a better horse over 10f, in fact three of his four career wins come over that trip and all came on fast ground. He’s usually up with the pace, not a negative at Brighton on fast ground and he should enjoy the uphill finish today.

There is plenty of competition for the pace, but that may ensure this is going to be an honest race and I feel this will help him more than anything.

The money is coming this morning and the sexy prices are certainly gone. But I’m happy to enough to back him at what’s left there, as this looks a golden opportunity for Night Bear.

10pts win – Night Bear @ 9/2

…….

7.10 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Beauld As Brass seriously caught the eye last time at Brighton coming off a near year-long break. The potential bounce factor may be an issue, but he may strip fitter today at the same time as it seemed tiredness, possibly not being fully tuned up on the day, that saw him fall back to 4th, eventually.

He burned through the first half of the race, setting a hot pace as part of a duo and then looked a bit awkward in the finish at Brighton. I reckon he could come on for the run, and if he does will have a big chance today.

6 furlongs on the sand are fine. He’s been eased another pound, 3lb above his last winning mark. However, back then he also achieved a career-best 63 speed rating.

He’s got form on the All-Weather and should be suited by Lingfield today, given his usual positive racing style. He’s drawn right beside Lilkian, who surely will move forward, and may push the pace with Agostino, who has to cross over from his wide #10 draw, though.

That may shape like an ideal scenario, as Beauld As Brass can track in touching distance and pounce in the home straight. There may not be too much else get involved here, I feel, with the rest possibly too far back at that point.

Rob Havlin has been booked, which I take as a positive. And the yard also seems to hit some form of late.

10pts win – Beauld As Brass @ 7/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 21st May 2024

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It’s just not happening right now… strong run from Showboated who was a clear passage denied at a crucial stage and as a result had to delay his fully effort. DH for 3rd, eventually.

Another solid run and placed selection at double figure prices…. thankfully, at the very least, selections outrun expectations…. but that W remains elusive. A nightmare.

………

3.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Dion Baker is in smashing form and a repeat his last three highly eyecatching runs will see him win this.

He bumped into a couple last time at Wolverhampton, where he was hard at work early on to grab the lead in what should prove a hot contest – the winner was certainly well-handicapped on the day.

The two times before, at Yarmouth over a mile and prior to that over 6 furlongs, the gelding travelled pretty well and showed a lovely attitude to fight gamely, although was possibly outclassed somewhat and beaten by the race dynamics too.

Brighton, 7 furlongs, and the chance for having it easy enough to get the lead, down in class where he’s got a 3-1-2 record on turf, including his sole turf win, as well as achieved in each run good speed ratings, should afford him a cracking chance to add a third career victory to his CV.

He was only a shoulder beaten in higher grade last summer over this course and distance off 6lb higher than today. Since then he ran 64+ speed ratings on three occasions on sand or turf.

Currently down to a seriously dangerous mark of 63 the 5-year-old must be the prime contender in this race, as long as the rain doesn’t turn the ground too soft. It should subside, and not be enough to get much worse than good, though.

10pts win – Dion Baker @ 4/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 14th May 2024

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3.15 Beverley: Class 6 Handicap: 5f

Digital has been running quite well in two of his runs this season, since coming back from a break and having changed yards over the winter.

A strong third, without getting overly beaten up in the closing stages in 0-85 class was yet another indicator of his wellbeing. He achieved a good speed rating, too.

That came after a disappointing 9/10 at Kempton – however over 6f, from a wide enough draw, where he was pulling hard and not getting to the lead.

His seasonal reappearance, however, rates strongly. At Southwell in March he moved keenly forward from the widest draw. Set a good pace that contributed to some good speed figures achieved in the race. He showed good a good attitude before getting really tired.

The Southwell and most recent Wetherby run give the impression he’s not far off last years form, when he achieved solid 71 and 70 speed ratings, although also fell from a mark 0f 90 to 76.

Digital isn’t the force of old but judged on those last runs has found his current level and could have a couple of pounds in hand now, especially as he drops down to 0-72 level.

He’s got the #2 draw (effectively the #1 due to a non-runner) to attack the race from. Minimum trip and fast ground are fine, although he’s got to shoulder top-weight and may not get his own way completely up front.

Nonetheless, the advantage of his low draw, having the rail to guide him, usually is an advantage over this course and distance.

10pts win – Digital @ 11/2

………

5.50 Killarney: Conditions Race, 1m

Alpheratz sets quite a high standard for this race. Her unlucky second at the Curragh in March, followed up by a fair fifth at Leopardstown, both Group 3 form that has worked out well in the meantime, should give her a cracking chance today.

Saying that, the ground is a good deal quicker than the deep ground she encountered in all her four career runs to date, that’s a significant question mark.

Agha Khan filly Tannola could be smart. She won well when last seen and will surely enjoy moving up to a mile. She remains in the Irish 1000 Guineas for now and offers plenty of upside.

For all that, she didn’t run particularly fast on speed ratings in any of three career runs and she may also enjoy deeper ground.

Obviously Uluru is the most intriguing one, not only because she’s one of my horses to follow this season.

The filly was mightily impressive on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park last summer: from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start but eventually ran away with it and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

That’s the sign of a potentially smart individual. No surprise, she changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners, Team Valor, in her final start last season.

In a big sales race at Naas it wasn’t a good pace and she got stuck in traffic without a way to get out. She still managed to finish well enough to get him in 4th place.

No question she looks capable of turning into a stakes filly this year. She was in a race at Naas at the beginning of the season, though didn’t take up that engagement. Race fitness is a question. She’s never encountered this type of ground, either.T

But there’s plenty of faster ground form in her pedigree and moving up to a mile is a clear positive. The 7lb claim of Wayne Hassett is intriguing and, if she’s race fit, should give her the edge today.

10pts win – Uluru @ 4/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 2nd April 2024

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4.15 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap

There isn’t much substance in this field beyond the short-priced favourite. Bustaam looks progressive and may defy a 10lb higher mark for an easy victory at Doncaster.

On the other hand he hasn’t achieved a good speed rating on turf (yet) in four runs and is prone to miss the kick, not ideal at Pontefract, especially in a possibly slowly run race.

Top-weight Lord Melbourne makes some appeal on his handicap debut, though. Back to the venue where he was seen to best effect last year.

It was a career-best performance here at Pontefract when runner-up behind a subsequent listed winner. He handled softish ground just fine and was simply outstayed over 12 furlongs. However he showed a nice change of gear from 4 furlongs out.

He cost a bit of money as a yearling and is quite well bred, naturally then. Gelded just before his debut run, though, he seems a somewhat tricky character, as the application of cheek-pieces showed in his final runs in 2023.

Head gear is off today, a question mark, but you hope with natural improvement he could be better than his opening mark of 77, given the CP’s didn’t do anything for him.

There is certainly enough substance in his performances, if you strike out his penultimate run at Wolverhampton when injured during the race.

He travelled quite well when last seen at Wolverhampton in December, but was short of room at a crucial stage around the home bend and then didn’t see out the trip, I believe.

A return to turf should be a positive. His two runs where his best, so far, including the aforementioned Ponti run. 10 furlongs could prove an ideal trip, judged by his runs over 1m 4f where he travelled nicely, was also able to change gear but didn’t get home.

The heavy ground is a question mark. He handled good to soft and on pedigree there is plenty of soft ground form, which gives hope. He comes into this 0-75 race as a 77 rated individual. If he can put it all together the gelding could prove way too classy, especially if he gets it easy in front.

This is Harry Davies’ only ride today, and he goes well for this yard, which does well when it sends horses to the front. I hope that’s the game plan today with not much other pace to compete with.

The 4-year-old seems on the drift this morning in the betting. That’s a risk. But I hope he’s not just here for a public workout.

10pts win – Lord Melbourne @ 5/1

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Tuesday Selections

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3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

The race hasn’t been blown wide open with the absence of Constitution Hill. Instead State Man has simply replaced the champion as the new red hot favourite.

State Man is now as short as 1/3 with the majority of bookies. Is that a slight overreaction to the supposed fact that there’s not (even potentially) meaningful opposition to the reigning Irish Champion hurdler?

No question, State Man is a seriously talented AND consistent horse. Unbeaten for two years – with the exception of a highly credible runner-up performance in the 2023 Champion Hurdle.

Trained by Willie Mullins, of course the 7-year-old gelding is the likeliest winner. Yet, there’re a couple of reasons that could spoil the Mullins party on Tuesday, at least in the Champion Hurdle:

State Man hasn’t quite wowed me yet on speed ratings. His two Cheltenham performances are good, and clearly the success in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown rates strongly as well, also on the clock.

Perhaps, trying to find holes in the form, it’s nitpicking, but he may have benefited from circumstances in those races, and the overbearing feeling for me remains that the vast majority of his performances don’t scream “unbeatable”, like a 1/3 shot would suggest.

The pace in the Champion Hurdle will be interesting to see how it develops. State Man may have to do the “donkey work” for himself. He usually races right up there and has made the running in the past. Hence this isn’t a negative per se. But it may offer some others to stalk and pounce in his shadow for a turn of foot – because this could easily develop into a sprint finish.

Of course all that only matters if there’s any meaningful opposition. With that in mind, I think there could be two horses offering enough upside at this point of their careers to hope that they can make this a race for State Man.

Irish Point is an intriguing runner. The drop in trip may not be a problem if the ground remains soft, though the potential lack of pace is a concern. Perhaps that could temp connections to deploy front-running tactics?

There were occasions when Irish Point made all, notably when he landed a Grade 3 as a Novice last year at Naas over 2 miles.

The Gordon Elliott trained gelding seems as rock solid an each-way shout as you could find, if eight runners go to post. He should be a bit shorter, in my book, than the current prices.

The one I’m most intrigued by is Nicky Henderson trained Iberico Lord. Supplemented at the cost of £18k, he’s no Constitution Hill, but certainly a promising horse on an upward trajectory.

Ground is key for the 6-year-old gelding: it should remain soft enough for him to be seen to best effect on Tuesday, given the current weather forecast and latest going readings.

Iberico Lord remains low mileage with plenty of upside: 7-3-1 over hurdles, and 2/3 this season – a lacklustre effort in December had been put firmly into the rear mirror thanks to a big performance in the Newbury Betfair Hurdle last month.

That was only a Grade 3, and he’s got to step up significantly to have a real chance in a Champion Hurdle. Nonetheless, that level of performance puts him right in the picture here IF he can continue to improve.

The way he quickened at Newbury from three out was seriously impressive, in my view. He did it easily enough in the end. That form looks strong, franked through some of those behind in the Imperial Cup last weekend.

Another positive can be taken from his course and distance win back in November. He clearly relished the hill that day.

Stable form is an obvious concern. Nicky Henderson’s loss of form, and the issues with his stable star, have been widely documented. In contrast Willie Mullins seems to to win everything these days. State Man will be 100% ready. Let’s hope Iberico Lord is ready to rock as well.

Even without the stable form question to be answered, Iberico Lord has to improve a whopping 26lb on Official Ratings. Although, with natural progression that isn’t impossible.

This is going to be his first crack at Grade 1 level. And on speed ratings things look quite a bit closer. Therefore, a gap of 1.37 to 14.5 seems huge…. and too big.

10pts win – 13.5/1

……

4.50: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, 2m½f

As the nature of this race goes, it’s wide open. A case can be made for plenty to be in with a chance, and/or somewhat hidden to protect their mark in the past just waiting for a looseningof the handbrake.

This may be one where the home team has a chance, but the away side could have the edge once more.

Joseph O’Brien’s Lark In The Mornin makes plenty of appeal – surely he’s got tons of unseen potential to offer, waiting to be unleashed on Tuesday. I’m not fond off the price, though.

The De Bromhead yard seems to hit some form, finally. The lightly raced filly Nara is an intriguing runner if she can settle in the hood. She looks a free sort and a buzzing Cheltenham remains a worry.

The market hasn’t missed Milan Tino, who looks on a decent opening mark, neither does the market takes any chances with top-rated Liari and Ndaawi.

One I’m interested in, but thought the price may go the wrong way for me, has been available at surprisingly generous prices this afternoon, though: Martin Brassil trained Ose Partir could be seriously dangerous off 126 on his handicap debut.

The bare form this year reads quite poorly on the surface. However, there’s more to it than naked numbers. The French recruit was keen in his first starts and raced in hot waters lately.

This is perhaps easier than the Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He jumped alright for most of the race, made a bit of progress from the rear of the field from four out before fading away, without getting an overly hard ride.

Ose Partir seemed to settle better and travelled well enough. I quite liked his run over Christmas as well where he made even more eye-catching progress toward the backend of the race.

He was a promising three-year old on the flat in France before switching to the Brassil yard. A winner on his racecourse debut, and fine second in a subsequent conditions race behind a winner who locked horns with Big Rock and Ace Impact subsequently.

His Irish debut was eye-catching too, as he was quite keen and was a bit unfortunate in the closing stages, finishing a gallant runner-up without being asked for everything.

In any case, Ose Partir is one to keep an eye on even if he finds this contest too hot in the end. If he’s ridden off the pace he’ll need some luck too. But the likely rattling pace and big field could help him to settle and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a significantly improved performance.

10pts win – Ose Partir @ 15.5/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 15th August 2023

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I hoped for a better return to the ‘racing life’. 4 from 8 placed last week, some desperately close to win, but they didn’t get over the line, literally.

My current losing record stretches on for quite a while once again. This really is the most bizarre year of my “betting career”. Never had such dramatic swings before.

Not sure whether I’m changing or the game’s changing or whether this is normal variance that I was simply ‘lucky’ to avoid in such crassness in the past.

……

6.45 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f

This looks an ideal opportunity for Greatgadian who was not disgraced over a mile when not getting the rub of the green last time at Ascot and who has steadily dropped in the ratings despite some good runs this year off much higher.

He caught my eye for the first time in April in the Lincoln after he enjoyed a pretty decent winter on the All-Weather. The subsequent Nottingham run is one I also rated highly, although two lesser efforts in between raise some questions.

On the other hand, a return to 10 furlongs will surely suit, so is the return to Chelmsford. Greatgadian is a dual course and distance winner.

He ran well earlier this year off 99 over this CD when third, only a lengths beaten, and you would hope with the good #2 draw to go from today, off 90, he should be hard to beat, if everything is right.

10pts win – Greatgadian @ 6/1

……

9.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Golden Rainbow showed a return to form at Weatherby the last time after a wind operation where he ran seriously well over 5.5f in a hot contest.

He tracked the pace closely in second place and pressed he leader from over 2f out. Possibly ahead at final furlong marker, eventually horses from further back got the better of him.

He drops in class and ever so slightly down to the minimum trip on the All-Weather, which should be his optimum. His AW record reads 9-2-3 and even better in Handicaps.

He’s a course and distance winner and has no issue with the stiff finish at Newcastle over this trip. He even runs well over 6 furlongs here. There is plenty of pace on, so that should suit and make it a fair race. He’s got early speed, shouldn’t be too far away and well placed when the race probably develops toward the centre.

That hopefully ensures that the low draw isn’t that big a negative as it can be over this CD sometimes.

Obviously with this jockey on board, at this track, you don’t always know whether you get a ‘real’ effort. I’ll trust this looks an ideal opportunity to score, though.

10pts win – Golden Rainbow @ 7/2

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 8th August 2023

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Hello world, I’m back. I needed a little break: after many months of diving into racing all-out day after day through the winter, spring and the first summer months, some rest was much needed.

Many thanks to all of you who asked through various channels whether I’m okay – that’s really appreciated. I’m okay.

With everything in life for me it’s all in or all out for me. I watch tons of racing and love it. But there comes a point when it becomes too much and time away from the game is needed to recharge and especially renew the excitement.

Truth is, I do enjoy the betting side much more during the winter. It’s less racing and less horses to keep track of. I can easily watch all the races without rushing and it never becomes a slog.

The flat season is tough. It’s so much racing. I love the big races but my bread and butter are the low-grade Handicaps, especially over shorter trips. It’s simply too much, though. Who knows whether I’m the only one but the vastness of racing on offer can become overwhelming in the summer months.

Hence, practically ever year, at some point between July and August I have to pull the plug and let it all go. And then come back happy and ready to be all in. So here we go again.

……..

8.10 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Albegone proved to be in good nick when rather unfortunate last month at Catterick as he got stuck behind a bunch of horses and came home easily with the impression there was more in the tank.

He’s a tricky sort, who can pull for his head and has a tendency to hang, but his recent runs were – to the most part – better than the bare form.

I find myself going back to his 22/05 performance at Carlisle especially, where he set hot pace from the front and travelled strongly until getting quite tired late. That’s strong form.

He’s 7lb lower now, a pound lower than the speed rating he ran to in May, so he should be seriously competitive in this field as he He drops in class into 0-60 company.

The ground won’t be an issue: Albegone is seen to best effect with ease in the ground. He ran well at Ripon in the past as well.

10pts win – Albegone @ 6/1

……….

8.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Mudskipper hasn’t fulfilled the potential I thought he had before the season. However, there are some valid excuses as well, and now gelded, going up in trip again on his All-Weather debut he could be underestimated.

He showed promise last year in three runs but was a disappointing favourite at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance back in April. He bumped into a well-handicapped one and the ground was tough that day, so perhaps he just didn’t get home for valid reasons.

Over a mile in his next two starts, a trip most likely a bit on the sharp side, he never looked like winning but I thought he ran with plenty of credit, especially the last time at Sandown where he didn’t get the best of runs but finished well in the final furlong.

The longer trip is sure to suit today, as could be the switch to the sand and with headgear on it may help him to stay better focused in the closing stages.

10pts win – Mudskipper @ 9/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 27th June 2023

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9.00 Newbury: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I’m intrigued by Ignac Lamar dropping down to 6 furlong again, with Oisin Murphy keeping the ride and the tongue tie applied.

The gelding caught the eye the last two times, although only made me took proper notice last time out after his excellent 3rd at Leicester.

That day Ignac Lamar was quickly forward, led as part of a duo on the far side. He was gutsy and only went down fighting late in the day, to finish 3rd, eventually.

That looked seriously strong form on speed ratings and the previous form of the winner and runner-up. He achieved a career-best 67 speed rating on turf as well.

Prior to this in a better race at Wolverhampton he missed the break but ran home pretty well, especially making excellent ground from three furlongs to the final furlong.

The speed for 6 furlongs is definitely there, and he may find 7 furlongs perhaps a stretch, especially if properly run.

Going back on the turf is intriguing. 0/7 but ran a number of times with credit and remains somewhat unexposed on the grass and sprint trips. Tactically the race could work out nicely, too. He has got the possible front-runner drawn right beside him, to possibly tow him nicely into the finish.

I have slight concerns over the fact that he has finished weakly on some occasions. So, hopefully the tongue tie is a help, although when he wore it the first time last year he bombed out.

But 6 furlongs against 0-70 opposition on fast ground and a straight track could be an ideal scenario on turf for him to get off the mark. He won off his current mark on the All-Weather over this trip and ran to a 70 speed rating. Judged on the latest effort he’s as good on turf.

Going against older horses for the first time is intriguing as well. He’s quite experienced, and could utilise WFA successfully here.

10pts win – Ignac Lamar @ 9/2