Tag Archives: tip

Tuesday Selections: 3rd May 2022

A poor run from selection No Patience at the Curragh on Monday. He didn’t travel, didn’t seem to enjoy the ground, and in hindsight it was a poor selection. Hoping for better today.

The proof is in the pudding, so to speak. And I didn’t take enough note of the proof. No Patience has hardly ever ran well with give in the ground. All his best performances came on decent ground. It was an error of judgement on my side.

I got bamboozled by the sexy handicap mark and the strong visual impression of the most recent run. With that in mind No Patience remains an interesting horse if conditions are right. They weren’t yesterday and nothing annoys me more than money wasted on a poor selection.

Learn from it. Move on. Today is another day.

………

3.25 Lingfield: Class 4 Handicap, 1 mile

This is a competitive race but I really like the bottom weight The Rain King after his recent eye-catching reappearance at Windsor.

It was his first run since November 2021, in the meantime he underwent a wind operation. He wasn’t fancied as a 22/1 shot, yet was possibly unlucky not win.

The Rain King travelled well enough for a long time but had a bit to do from back of the field 3f out. He looked poised while searching for a gap that didn’t open, though. He finished the strongest with a late run eventually (fastest last 3f splits too), beaten only 1.5 lengths.

This was an encouraging reoccurrence and a return to form for the first time since winning a Galway maiden and subsequently leaving Donnacha O’Brien and Ireland for the Alexandra Dunne yard.

The Rain King was an expensive £250k yearling and clearly has ability. He’s a risky proposition, but still relatively low mileage for a 5-year-old with more to offer if his breathing is truly rectified, which seems to be the case.

A mark of 69 could certainly underestimate his potential. And simply on that most recent run, with a clear passage he would have finished much closer and would be a few pounds higher today, perhaps 6lb if he’d have won.

A good draw today should help The Rain King secure a good position. Whether he acts on the All-Weather remains to be seen and is a question mark with a certain risk attached given he failed to fire in two runs on polytrack in the past.

However, he’s related to a number of winners on the All-Weather. In addition: the jockey booking of Daniel Muscat – who retains the ride from Windsor – is quite eyecatching. He’s got only two rides on the card today having a 29% strike rate over the last two weeks.

10pts win – The Rain King @ 8/1

Saturday Selections: 23rd April 2022

Two selections for a busy Saturday of compelling flat racing that I am keen to watch for future eye-catchers. Having a winner would be nice too.

1.30 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

After John was a massive eye-catcher earlier this month when he nearly overcame tons of trouble at Thirsk to thunder home much the fasted in the closing stages, clocking in the last three furlongs at least a full second faster than the rest.

But that was only good enough for second place on the day. He’s up a pound for the run, which could or possibly should be more. He clearly is going really well for his new yard and judged on past performances is potentially well handicapped having won of 71.

He was competitive – if a bit unlucky – last year of slightly higher marks than the current one once it slipped to a manageable rating. Particularly his 4th place finish at Ayr in September rates a strong piece of form.

He has ran four times to topspeed ratings of 65+, while his most recent performance awarded him a 63 rating, suggesting he is in great shape.

Obviously it’s a big field and in-running luck is required. I think pace won’t be an issue with a number of horses happy to lead but the chart is all over the place and could be a bit messy. I hope he ends up following the right line.

10pts win – After John @ 5/1

3.15 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Cloch Nua looks to have a massive chance here if in a mediocre race – IF the hood helps the hot gelding to settle. He’s got his issues and that’s the reason why he didn’t get off the mark yet.

Beaten last time out a short priced favourite at Southwell was certainly disappointing. But the run itself was better than the bare form suggest. The pace was slow, he was travelling off the pace, pulling really hard really long for his head. What looked liked a serious challenge two furlongs appeared to fiddle out rapidly.

Yet, looking at the sectionals, he still finished the race quite nicely, given the position he came from., actually. Which gives me hope he retains the good form he showed earlier this year.

I took serious note of him after his penultimate run, a 7f Novice contest at Southwell, where he travelled like a horse with some talent and finished pretty easily despite hanging badly, leaving the impression there was plenty left in the tank.

This will be only his second handicap start. A mark of 67 could be on the lenient side if he puts it all together. What makes this an outstanding chance for me is the jockey booking. Benoit De La Sayette is an excellent apprentice who is taking invaluable 7lb off the weight.

10pts win Cloch Nua @ 10/1