Pogo was quite disappointing on Saturday. He burnt off too much energy way too early. Perhaps I should have read the pace chart more intently, and would have noticed there was a danger for pressure, which was there, and not ideal at a track such Newbury for a horse like Pogo.
On the other hand, it’s all probabilities, and at the price, after much deliberation, I’d have backed him again.
……
5.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f
Progressive Auld Toon Loon could have found an ideal opportunity to get a third win this season. The way this Handicaps pans out could ensure it falls right into his lap.
Pace is going to be key here. Some of those theoretically more dangerous rivals would want a solid gallop. While ATL is one of the few horses here who is probably rather comfortable of having anything to do with the pace, in the first place.
Over this sort of trip his record in Handicaps reads 2-1-1-2 this summer and he nearly would have gone back to back two weeks ago Haydock, proving his excellent form.
That day he moved forward and lead as part of a duo before he grabbed the contested lead by the neck halfway through and travelled seriously well into the home straight with the rest of the field on the stretch over 3f out.
Eventually he paid for the effort on heavy ground and the strong winner came for him, was ridden with a bit more restraint and overtook him.
Auld Toon Loon looks still progressing, nonetheless, and a 2lb hike in the mark may not stop him today. The ground is much better today, which should suit, given he won on fast in June when things didn’t go his way early in the race, a performance that warranted an upgrade.
Lat time at Haydock he ran a career-best 75 speed rating. A bit more is needed given his revised mark. I feel he’s got the class to do that, in the right race.
Today may not be a fast run, though. In any case Auld Toon Loon will be in the right spot, up there close to the front, and possibly difficult to get to once in front.
10pts win – Auld Toon Loon @ 5/1
…….
5.00 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This looks seriously competitive without being competitive. Few appear well-handicapped. Also the pace could turn out to make this difficult for some of the better fancied horses. The favourite may find himself stuck behind a wall of horses from his low draw, potentially.
Even though he already won twice in the not too distinct future and hasn’t rattled the cage in his two recent runs for a new yard, I can’t help but feel Surprise Picture – even with some money coming this morning – is overpriced, if on a going day, and could spring a surprise, indeed.
He shouldn’t find it too difficult to move across and track the pace from the #7 draw here. If he does that, he’ll be bang there when it matters when the field turns for home.
A possibly easy enough starting phase to get into a good spot, he also has pace for the trip but stays further and enjoys fast ground, at a track that favours those up with the pace over this trip – he could have enough left in the tank to fight it out.
He won last summer off 75 and ran to a 76 speed rating at Hamilton over 6 furlongs; his form this year has been moving closely into that direction again, as he ran a 70 speed rating for his Musselburgh win over 7f furlongs off 67 back in June.
Today may not be his day, I can see that argument that he’s only becoming competitive once below 70 again – but this looks a superb opportunity and I think he’ll be trying.
3.26 Deauville: Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, 1m
Wow, what a hot race. Probably the deepest Group 1 of the season, so far? The best of the Classic generation versus the best of the older milers. Exciting!
Twelve months ago the filly Inspiral won the race in a dramatic finish with a career-best performance. She’s here again and tries to defend her title. She has to put a shocking run in the Sussex Stakes behind, though.
If we forgive her the Goodwood run, which may have been simply down to the ground, her only other start this season came in the Queen Anne and was a massive given the circumstances.
The problem is: Deauville is likely to ride quite soft today. Softer than last year, and the fact remains Inspiral does her best work on a sounder surface. She may struggle in these conditions. And especially against some serious opposition, who do relish soft ground.
Good Guess ran to a 104 speed rating when he landed the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat recently. That’s brilliant form, but I doubt he gets home well enough against top-class opposition over a mile.
French Guineas winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi drops back to a mile after a gallant effort in the French Derby. He was caught up behind a wall of horses at the wrong time.
If he can take another step forward, which he has to in this field, he’s right in the mix. The fact he stayed on so strongly, makes me wonder whether a drop to a mile is the right move, though.
Light Infantry ran two huge races back-to-back in Group 1 company lately. A consistent colt, who at his very best can feature.
On last years form he’s got an obvious chance, given his superb runner-up performance in this very race. The ground doesn’t worry him and he should be competitive once again. Whether this seasons form is quite good enough remains to be seen, though.
His third place in the Queen Anne ties in with the winner of the Royal Ascot race, Triple Time. It was a massive career-best, somewhat unexpected for many, after 262 days off the track.
The talented son of Frankel showed promise earlier in his career but had issues that prevented him from realising his full potential as a 3-year-old. Now a year older, fit and healthy, he remains unexposed in a sense that we don’t know yet the ceiling.
He won on soft ground as a juvenile. Nonetheless, his best form comes on a sounder surface. This isn’t a class 4 Novice race at Haydock. There’re questions marks, for that reason, in my mind.
I’m curious about Erevann, who enjoys soft ground and on the basis of last years form would be a huge runner. He achieved a career-best in this race 12 months ago, and also won on deep ground a Group 2 in fine style subsequently.
If you’d run last years Jacques Le Marois again you may get a different result… it probably made a difference that Inspiral and Light Infantry finished closer to the rail, while Erevan stayed in the middle and also made contact with a rival two furlongs from home. Another day he wins it.
He wasn’t quite in the same form in two runs this year, yet – at least on paper. Although, perhaps it’s fair to say, he was quite unfortunate in the Prix d’Ispahan when last seen as his path was blocked on the inside rail over a furlong from home at the most crucial stage of the race.
If one wants to see his 2023 form in a negative light, then he was disappointing, given the market expectations on both occasions. In a more positive light one could read it: he has improve with each run and should peak today.
How much more peaking can Big Rock do? Current favourite and one who should enjoy the drop in trip with the deep ground to make it more a test of stamina, nonetheless.
He just got seriously tired in the final furlong in the French Derby, otherwise he’d have been an impressive winner. Big Rock ran consistently strong speed ratings this season. He’s rock solid, so to speak.
A break should have helped to recover from those big efforts. I wonder whether he’s quite at 100% today, though, with some big targets looming large in Autumn?
He’d be my ‘likeliest winner’ selection, nonetheless. At the prices I pass. I also pass on Hi Royal. Obviously I’m a fan, but this is too deep for him, most likely.
In summary: Plenty of serious chances in this field. What a race! At the given prices I’ll see the value in Erevann, who could peak today and with a clear run will be right in the mix when it matters most. Ground, trip and track are perfect.
That was Royal Ascot. A frantic week. I definitely got sucked into more than in preceding years, for better or for worse.
Two big winners clearly helped. Especially as I continue to go through a pretty rotten spell with the ‘bread and butter’ stuff.
Hence it’s positive to see many Ascot selections outran their often big odds. beside the winners Waipiro (12/1) and Royal Champion (33/1), there were plenty of placed ones at big odds (Inquisitively 3rd @ 20/1, Bucanero Forte 3rd @ 19/1, Remarquee 2nd at 33/1).
No good for the P/L as win only backer, but good for the morale. And that’s certainly needed to keep the morale up as Saturday was another hugely disappointing blank, as my handicappers found ways to get beat.
Essme and Huddle Up got close, Shine’s Ambition looked with less than a furlong he may have it. Wasn’t to be. And it weighs on my mind. I know I got way too aggressive this month.
Perhaps it was simply the wrong time for it. Or it was mostly bad luck…. or perhaps lack of good judgement. That’s for another day to determine.
……..
6.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
This appears to be a class 3 0-90 in the name only. It’s a big field, but not a competitive race. The pace scenario and draw takes more than half the the field out in addition.
I wouldn’t be too sure whether Rathbone could truly deliver in a proper class 3 Handicap these days, but he showed clear signs of a revival the last two times and has fallen to a tasty mark.
He’s one you’d hope can go forward from a solid #6 draw – this year he has shown better early gate speed, so I’m hoping he’ll do the same today.
Eight days ago his run at York in a competitive Handicap was certainly a highly encouraging performance.
Rathbone showed excellent early speed, was quick through the first four furlongs before gradually tiering. He was probably advantaged by riding on the far side, but still did very well to stay in front for long, before going backwards from 1 furlong out.
The preceding 3rd place effort at Doncaster was also a strong effort as he was significantly quicker through the first four furlongs than the winner and runner-up.
Both forms stand up and look strong. He lost another couple of pounds, down to 79 – he won off 90 and ran to a 86 speed rating last summer still. Most likely he’s not quite as good these days but with conditions to suit and a track and pace scenario putting him possibly at an advantage today he’s on a dangerous mark.
After another disappointing Saturday on the betting front I went for a little walk to the Curragh around the Derby course.
A lovely evening once the rain subsided with some beautiful light to illuminate the Curragh.
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3.50 Doncaster: Class 2 Handicap, 5f
Burning Cash looks seriously well weighted to go close, but I can’t move past Alligator Alley who was such a huge eyecatcher at Epsom last time out in the infamous Dash.
He was first-time visored and seemed to respond a bit too keenly to the new headgear as he forced his gate open, which set a chain of events in motion.
As for his own race, he was keen early on jumped the grass path over 4 furlongs out, bumped a rival and became briefly unbalanced moments, was subsequently short of room with the rider taking a pull.
Nonetheless, he ran home in eye catching fashion, hard on the bridle and still managed to finish strongly in the final furlong.
The handicapper dropped him another 2lb, which makes him a proper danger off 94 here, especially if he could start a bit sharper with visor.
Two runs back at York off 4lb higher was also quite a strong run; I thought, confirming the excellent form the gelding is in at the moment. He should get a clear run on the outside of the field here, so hopefully no excuses this time.
10pts win – Alligator Alley @ 4/1
………
4.00 Salisbury: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
I’m prepared to forgive Michaels Choice his latest poor showing at Lingfield. Things didn’t look right there right from the start.
However, judged on his comeback run over his preferred course and distance – 6f at Salisbury – he should have a big chance here. He’ 3-2-1 over this CD, and looked as good as ever in May when the race developed against him.
That day he had the widest draw to overcome which was a significant enough disadvantage as he raced widest without cover as a consequence. Nonetheless, he made good progress from over 2f out on the outside of the field, to challenge, before he tired late.
A strong run on his seasonal reappearance which achieved a 66 speed rating as well. Clearly, based on that, he’s as good as ever.
Michaels Choice won off 70 multiple times in the past and ran to 70 speed rating twice last year, including when winning over this CD last July.
10pts win – Michaels Choice @ 7/2
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3.05 Chantilly: Prix de Diane, 1m 2.5f
A competitive renewal but I want to give Never Ending Story another chance after her disappointing showing the in the French Guineas, where she seemed never really in it after receiving an early bump by a rival.
Moving up in trip should suit this daughter of Athena, though, and ever since she won the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown back in April I felt she is a high-class filly, a Group 1 winner in the making.
That day she was gutsy, stayed on strongly and proved that she has progressed after a somewhat underwhelming juvenile campaign.
She looked stronger than ever, and ran a solid 90 speed rating, as the form has ben given a significant boost in the meantime by the second and third.
I imagine she’s even better beyond a mile in any case, and everything she’s done so far is positive to sign for what’s still to come.
That she was able to win a good race over 7 furlongs, means she has the speed. Now let’s bring in some stamina and she’s seriously underestimated today, especially from a good draw.
It’s a wild game of ups and downs. Last week very much on a high. Days later things look bleaker. Another blank on Saturday. 14 on the bounce the red L.
Raasel ran well, good third place, but no chance with the winner. The ride on Fiftyshadesofred didn’t make any sense. I’ll give her another chance with a better rider on board. Winforglory stayed on strongly, but too late, and it seemed he didn’t have the early speed needed up in class.
Looking back over the last week, many ran well enough, still, even got placed. I’m quite satisfied with the selections, to the most part. There’s probably two I’d like to have back. Otherwise, happy enough. The upswing will come…. hopefully sooner, rather than later.
Ay always on a day after a huge Grade 1 in South Africa, a quick note on the big race there: Charles Dickens got his redemption. He beat the older horses for the first time. And he did it pretty easily
The 3-year-old superstar colt lost his unbeaten record in the King’s Plate back in January when he was bravely taking on the best older milers in the country. He was ran down late by Al Muthana for second place.
Not so this time. Al Muthana, who was here again, and won the Gold Challenge in excellent style twelve month ago, came with a late charge once again, but it was game over by then.
The rides may have made a difference, some argued. Al Muthana had to come around wide. Charles Dickens got a dream run through on the inside. True. and yet, that’s how Al Muthana has to be ridden. He didn’t have enough late speed this time to ran home a stronger Charles Dickens.
It’s clear now that Charles Dickens is a miler. He still shows signs of early keenness. He’s still raw in the finish. He’ll never get 10 furlongs I reckon. That’s a problem if he wants to prove his greatness in his home country.
I hope, though, that connections consider a move for international races, as difficult an endevour this can be for South African horses. His options are ultimately limited at home, but he could be good enough – let’s find out – to take on the top-class milers of the world.
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2.35 Navan: 3yo+ Handicap, 5f
A highly competitive affair, one I would usually stay away from, especially in Ireland. But I’m somewhat desperate the give Lokada another chance as the ground is just perfect for the lightly raced filly.
Who knows how much longer the relatively dry and warm spell continues here, there comes a time decent ground is a thing of the past, and then Lokada doesn’t even need to go to post.
In saying that, the race evolves around Only Spoofing, who’s clearly been set up for this race, down to a mark of 80, he was well hidden lately and it’s clear today is “D-Day”.
No doubt on last years form he’s got a proper chance and will enjoy the going too. But he’s a 9-year-old, nonetheless. At given prices he can be opposed.
The others, like Harmony Rose, Curraheen Princess or Screen Siren and Tawazoon are real dangers on their best form. This is competitive.
Lokada has drifted out in the betting this morning. I’m not too worried about it and more delighted that she’s now a price to back.
Reportedly she needed a lot of time to learn and grow last year, but landed two 5f sprints at Dundalk in November in fine style, subsequently running with tons of credit from a wide draw at the same venue before a winter break.
She returned at Naas last month and ran a huge race in second place behind a seriously well-handicapped winner.
She was prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran home strongly up the hill for 2nd place on her side. She didn’t have a chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.
She achieved a 70 speed rating there and I was keen to back her next time at Tipperary to go one better. It was initially disappointing to see her finish a well beaten 4th only, but in hindsight it’s clear she bumped into a well-handicapped improver once again.
Also: the winner aside, she did much the best of those drawn wide and therefore ran a little bit better than the bare result would tell. Another excuse…. at some point there are none left and it is what it is.
Yet, I strongly feel her last two, perhaps taking the last Dundalk run into account as well, can be upgraded. The handicapper dropped her back to 71 (from 74), which is more than fair and gives her a huge opportunity.
As mentioned before, she ran to 70 at Naas, she also achieved a whopping 81 speed rating on the All-Weather last year. She has a low weight, possible the ideal #7 draw in this field, the track should suit and she’ll love the ground.
No excuses today? Hopefully not. Though, I become slightly concerned that since having written this piece and backed her, she continues to drift further in the betting. To a point soon, possibly, where the odds are utter nonsense. In those cases, as we all know Irish racing: if it doesn’t make sense there is a reason for it.
That’s one of the reasons I don’t bet Irish racing much. I find it even less trustworthy than low-class Britain. But here we are. I made the call, my money is down. Hopefully on a trier.
A disappointing Saturday. Gioia Cieca and Stay Smart finished 2nd, after they briefly appeared to go one better. Ultimately, both beaten fair and square.
Madame Fenella ran no race after missing the break and both Waipiro and Artistic Star had practically no chance from their position at the back of the field in the Derby.
…………
3.05 Chantilly: Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club, 1m 2.5f
Of course I must back Continuous here. He’s one of my 3-year-olds to follow and certainly one of the more intriguing ones. And how could it be any different with his pedigree.
A son of Japanese sire Heart’s Cry – who was a winner of the Sheema Classic in 2006 – out of Fluff, which was down to pure chance because the mare was supposed to be covered by Deep Impact, who sadly passed away right before she arrived in Japan.
Continues is the only son of Heart’s Cry actively racing in the UK and Ireland (possibly Europe) right now. His sire is well known for stamina in Japan, having sired Japan Cup winners and other multiple international top-class horses over middle-distance.
He won well at the Curragh over 7 furlongs when he made all on his racecourse debut as he kicked on over 2 furlongs out to achieve an 80 speed rating as well, which confirmed he’s possibly a smart one.
Continuous went on to win a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud over a mile. A gutsy performance in a slowly run race that didn’t suit him. I loved the attitude he showed in those first two career runs.
He made his seasonal reappearance in a hot Dante Stakes at York where he ran a lovely race. There were some questions over his fitness: he was supposed to start much earlier, but Aiden O’Brien is on the record that he needed time.
The money came right before the off and he travelled strongly, made good progress in the home straight and finished a good 3rd. He ran to a 99 speed rating. Solid enough, and he’ll have a cracking chance to land a Group 1 if he can, as one would expect, can improve for the rn.
There’s clearly more to come, especially as he didn’t have an ideal first half of the year. It’s all the more impressive that he ran so well in the Dante.
He strikes me as a relentless galloper, who shouldn’t have too many issues at Chantilly, given his #1. If he can move forward to track the pace, he could be in an ideal position to strike. The trip isn’t a worry at all after he showed stamina at York.
10pts win – Continuous @ 4/1
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3.15 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f
Something was clearly amiss with Eponina the last time. She was well backed but beaten way too early to make sense, especially after she showed a different face at Beverley less than a fortnight earlier.
Perhaps that race came too soon in deep ground at Leicester. She had three weeks to recover and returns to Nottingham where she is a multiple CD winner, also has done it on fast ground, and she came agonisingly close to add a third CD success last June in a similar Fillies’ race, however off 6lb higher.
She’s down to 64 now. That’s still not a ton in hand judged on all her more recent efforts. But she ran to consistently solid speed ratings in two of her last three runs, to suggest she’s still close enough to last summers form.
There is little other pace to fear here, so she may be able to stride on. If allowed a soft lead she should have enough in hand to win.
10pts win – Eponina @ 11/2
………
3.45 Nottingham: Class 2 Handicap, 8.5f
Greatgadian dropped down an intriguing 96 mark on the back of a disappointing effort at Newmarket – on paper disappointing, at least.
I thought he ran a huge race against the pace and draw bias in that race, as nothing from the far side featured in the finish. He also was short of room over two furlongs out, after travelling strongly, ensuring he had zero chance.
He clearly confirmed the promise shown in the Lincoln, as well as over the winter on the All-Weather. Especially his Lincoln run was eyecatching as well, as he had to make a huge effort on the wide outside of the field.
The better going this time should suit, so does the 8.5f trip. Greatgadian’s sole turf victory came over this course and distance at Nottingham on fast ground back in summer 2021.
Even though his record reads better on the sand, his record on grass is good as well. He ran two excellent races in hot Handicap company at Ascot, including a 98 speed rating off a 101 mark in the Shergar Cup mile.
The wide draw is a small concern here. But ground, trip and track are perfect. This looks a winnable race off a 96 mark.
Any winning day is a good day. I wasn’t happy with my decisions on Friday. Much happier on Saturday. Bertinelli won the ultra-competitive Gold Cup Heritage Handicap and makes it a profitable day.
He travelled well, though it took him a while to hit top gear and he grinded it out more than it was a flashy victory. He was probably a bit fortunate as well due to the misfortune of others in the race.
No complaints. The 13/2 and bits do for me on a day where the rest didn’t deliver, yet I can’t fault the selections and decision-making process.
Not sure what happened to Waseen. He was well-backed, but never seemed to be happy in his race and was beaten before it got hot in the race. Gullane One fell away quickly as well.
Mobashr was a huge drifter, out to 25/1 SP (44 BSP), but looked briefly threatening on the outside over 1 furlong out, before falling away.
Ultimately, it was a good week, no matter what. Three winners. A green month looks a given now, which is the most important thing.
One for tomorrow, bit earlier ready to post than usual. Full stake on. And I’m off to London for a quick day trip…
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5.25 Ripon: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
As he drops down in class and may enjoy the decent ground over the straight 6 furlongs, Hardy Angel looks a rather big price as he was inexplicably dropped a pound by the handicapper as well for his last effort, that saw him finish a strong 3rd at Pontefract.
That day he overcame the widest draw quickly to move forward and press the lead all the way. He raced wide and without cover throughout.
He never seem to travel overly well, but he had to give ground away and fought hard to stay toward the front of the race. He hit the front with less than two furlongs to go, although, in truth, was already a tired horse at that point.
Eventually he was passed for good by two horses that were ridden with more restraint. It also was reported afterwards that the saddle slipped in the closing stages.
Winner and runner-up have given the form strong merit in the meantime, with their subsequent performances.
Clearly, Hardy Angel improved from his first seasonal outing, and especially for the better ground. Off a 64 mark he looks well capable to win a race of this nature. This is much easier, even though some of the lightly raced rivals are difficult to assess properly at this stage.
Sergeant Tibbs beaten on the line. He ran a huge race but got just caught. Could have done with this one. Eponina ran no race at all. She was in trouble from 4f out. Something looked amiss.
That’s 11 losing bets on the bounce. Struggling a bit lately. Memories of the good start to the month have faded. Most selections have ran poorly as well.
Although, bare one, I liked all those selections. Can’t be too critical there. It’s just one of those times again, I guess.
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3.30 Longchamp: G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, 1m
Blue Rose Cen brings top-class form to the party and looked brilliant when she quickened nicely from near the front in the Prix de la Grotte, but I think the visual impression didn’t quite match the merit of the performance, given it was on deep ground and a slowly run race.
Aiden O’Brien saddles Never Ending Story and ever since she won the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown I felt she is a high-class filly, a Group 1 winner in the making.
That day she was gutsy, stayed on strongly and proved that she has progressed after a somewhat underwhelming juvenile campaign.
She looked stronger, and ran a good 90 speed rating, as the form has ben given a significant boost in the meantime by the second and third.
I imagine she’s even better on decent ground. On the other hand, she clearly goes well on heavy ground, which will be key at Longchamp. She should enjoy stepping up to a mile once again, too.
She seems somewhat underappreciated in the betting. I see her a whole lot closer the favourite than current prices have it.
Never Ending Story @ 7/2
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5.45 Hamilton: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
This handicap brings a wide range of horses together will all sorts of abilities. It is a class 3 in name only, though. The higher rated individuals may have the upper hand on paper, but neither looks well-handicapped.
No question, though, having been left untouched by the handicapper, Huddle Up must even as he moves up in class, and doing so significantly.
He ran a huge race on his comeback run after 11 months off the track at Thirsk about three weeks ago off a mark of 74, achieving a respectable 72 speed rating, with the performance also warranting an upgrade.
Huddle Up crossed over to the stands’ side soon after the start from his low draw. He tracked a good pace, made a strong move from over 2f out, and found himself in a head-to-head battle with the leader from 2f out all the way to the line. Eventually he was only beaten in the final 50 yards by a horse from off the pace.
It was his first opportunity to race in the UK with significant cut in the ground since he moved over last spring. That seems key to his chances. He ran to a 77 speed rating as a juvenile in heavy ground, and this most recent run suggests he may not be far off his very best.
The drop to 5f won’t be an issue, he has won over the minimum trip, and the stiff finish on softish ground will suit. There seems enough rain in the forecast to expect the ground not to dry out much beyond the current good to soft.
Saturday was wild. Harry’s Hill won, despite drifting out to 15/2 SP. He won like a ‘good thing’, though. I was stuck with 9/2 in any case, so the drift was no good to me. But I had him a good point shorter in my book, anyway. So, happy days.
Not so much a “happy ending” in the 2000 Guineas. Silver Knott was never going to win once the rain arrived. And there was a lot of rain! So much so it turned the ground to proper soft.
I’m upset with my eagerness to back him early, instead of having waited until Saturday to make a much better informed decision. Poor decision making is what eats profit.
And then there was Hi Royal. A huge price, could have been backed at 150s in the morning. Surely a small each-way bet would have been on the cards, especially as he was one of my 3-year-olds to follow and I wrote about him:
“Could be somewhat of a “dark horse” for the Guineas… given the speed he showed in his first two career starts. Clearly he’s seriously talented”.
Well, he ran a huge race to finish 2nd, looked like the winner even, before hanging badly. A missed opportunity. Sometimes I just don’t trust my own judgement enough.
………
It wasn’t a bet but I was nonetheless incredibly delighted, simply as a racing fan: everyone who follows this blog probably knows I love South African racing, and have grown particularly fond of 3-year-old colt Charles Dickens.
He was back today, down to a mile against his own age group. He won with authority, produced his usual stunning turn of foot and it was simply great to see him back to somewhere near his brilliant best.
It was a super ride by Aldo Domeyer, who made progress at the right time before it was too late as the pace wasn’t all that hot, and then trusted the acceleration of Charles Dickens, that was instant, to move through the gap on the inside.
The Durban July has been ruled out. Which is rather obvious, given the colt didn’t get home over 10 furlongs. But another crack over a mile against older horses would be seriously intriguing. The Gold Challenge at Greyville next month has been mentioned as a potential target, indeed.
……..
3.00 Newmarket: Dahlia Stakes, 9f
The ground throws this race wide open and I feel progressive filly Al Husn is possibly underestimated. She’s one of the horses I gonna follow keenly this season. Moving up to Group 2 level is asking plenty of her, but I believe she showed enough last year to think she could have a solid chance to be in the mix.
It may turn out that she isn’t quite good enough, but the filly loves it at Newmarket and is likely to enjoy the soft underfoot conditions, given she won impressively on good to soft when last seen and seems to hit the ground quite hard, too.
I loved her win over a mile in a class 3 Handicap here back in September, when she ran home strongly to win a shade cozily. She was even more impressive, I thought, when she moved up in class and trip to win a hot class 2 Handicap a few weeks later over 10 furlongs at the Rowley Mile.
She became a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before she hit top gear and sprinted home strongly to win with authority once again.
Dropping down to 9 furlongs in proper soft conditions shouldn’t be a problem. She showed plenty of cruising speed in her races and has the pedigree to stay, possibly even beyond 10 furlongs.
I’d be surprised if she isn’t ready for her reappearance. Roger Varian wouldn’t throw her into the deep end, otherwise. Yes, she has a bit to find on ratings, including speed ratings, but she has an opportunity to show that she belongs here. She looks the value in this contest.
10pts win – Al Husn @ 10/1
………
3.25 Leopardstown: Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes, 10f
Up And Under was an unlucky runner-up in a photo in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. He travelled much the best, made smooth progress on the outside of the field until he got tight for room and badly bumped 2 furlongs from home.
It was impressive how he gathered momentum following the collision as rapidly as he did to fight it out in a battle with potentially smart White Birch. If he wouldn’t have been hampered, could he have won? I think he might have and then would be a shorter price.
🏆Ballysax Stakes (G3) 2000m, 50.000 EUR, for 3yo 🇮🇪Leopardstown
White Birch (GB) (3C Ulysses – Diagnostic, by Dutch Art) J :Shane Foley T :John Joseph Murphy O :Mrs C C Regalado-Gonzalez B : Cheveley Park Studpic.twitter.com/XWnK4F15L6
He clearly acts on soft ground, as he also ran a lovely race on debut on heavy ground in his sole start as a juvenile last October.
He looks a lovely prospect for middle-distance races this year, and could also step up to 12 furlongs.
For now, this presents a good opportunity to score in Group company because favourite Proud And Regal may well be the default favourite but the Donnacha O’Brien trained colt’s Group 1 win at the end of last season doesn’t look overly strong form.
The price is just about getting quite skinny now and I would not go below 11/4, to be honest.
10pts win – Up And Under @ 11/4
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3.40 Newmarket: Group 1, 1000 Guineas, 1m
Favourite Tahiyra is all class. The way she won the Moyglare last season was incredibly impressive. It’s the standout piece of form and she ran a good 99 speed rating as well, without having to go all out.
The vibes from the Weld yard were somewhat mixed leading up to the Guineas. However, it’d be hard to believe such an experienced handler would send her over if she wouldn’t be ready to go.
She beat Meditate at the Curragh in the most impressive style. Hard on the bridle with two furlongs to go, she never saw the whip, yet produced a sensational turn of foot.
I think she’s not a bad price at all, even. Certainly the one to beat on paper.
Meditate, runner-up in the Moyglare went on to win at Breeders’ Cup subsequently. The Aiden O’Brien trained filly should rate a key danger once again.
She ran to a 104 speed rating when runner-up behind speedy Lezoo in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Therefore, she possesses plenty of speed and looks well capable to stretch out to a mile as evident at Keeneland. But that was on firm ground. The soft going is a a bit of a question mark.
Aforementioned Lezoo would be seriously dangerous if she could stay a mile. She looks a sprinter to me, though. Somewhat similar doubts hang over recent Nell Gwyn Stakes winner Gammas Girl. The Guineas is a much deeper race, but it’s far from a given that she can get home over the additional furlong.
Dreams Of Love and Mawj bring solid form from Meydan. Is that form good enough? Maybe. Mawj ran excellent speed ratings and has experience on her side. She’s a danger I seriously rate.
But there is absolutely no doubt in mind that they all have to beat Remarquee, including the filly herself. What I mean is: she is obviously a tricky filly, can be raw, awkward and looks seriously green in her first two career runs.
At the same time she created a huge impression on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.
That day she didn’t have the clearest of runs, before she accelerated really well from two furlongs out. She looked far from straight forward, carried her head awkwardly, yet won with tons in hand, nearly on the bridle, eventually.
Remarquee is now 6/1 from 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas after success in the Fred Darling at Newbury.
Obviously I’m biased because I flagged her as a 3-year-old to follow. But it’s difficult not be impressed by what she has done so far, exactly because she was so green.
That recent experience can only help. So should the step up to a mile and the soft ground, which is going to suit her more than many here. I must back her at current prices.
10pts win – Remarquee @ 7/1
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4.58 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Sir Benedict ran too poorly to be true at Catterick when last seen less than two weeks ago. His rider relinquished an advantageous draw and steered away from the far rail, which was no help at all.
But I do remain faithful to him, even though, one could ask: is there ever going to be another day for him to shine? He’s probably one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year.
He’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door a number of times and having dropped another two pounds lower than. At the same time, I maintain that he looks cherry ripe.
To go up and run over 6 furlongs again is a risk, though. He can pull hard when there’s no pace to run at. You never know how the race is going to develop, though, it looks likely that they good a decent clip here.
He caught my eye a number of times over the last weeks and months. Especially three runs ago at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.
And prior to that also at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.
The soft ground at Hamilton should be to his advantage, as well as that he’s a course and distance winner, who won here off 60 and ran to a 64 speed rating last June looks.
However, on proper soft ground the stiff finish may stretch him, especially if he shows any signs of keenness early on. That’s a the risk. He’s irresistibly well-handicapped, though, I’d follow him over the cliff another time again, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.
All good things come in threes, indeed. Healing Power won, as hoped, from the front, and doing so in nice style. He was too good this time, with the ideal race from the front. He was a huge drift out to 7/1 SP surprisingly.
Gobi Sunset was only late beaten; he ran well, but perhaps the drift in the betting suggested he wasn’t quite 100% on his comeback run this time, as he tiered quickly inside the final furlong. One to keep in mind for another time.
……
4.50 Southwell: Classified Stakes, 6f
There are question marks over May Remain at the age of 8 and after missing a recent assignment due to travel problems. A wide draw is far from ideal either. On the other hand, if there are no other underlying issues, I do believe he enjoys a class edge in this poor contest.
Obviously I did back him last time out at Wolverhampton, and rued the decision, as I actually foresaw what would happen from his wide draw as he was caught wide and never stood a chance. Therefore, the run can be ignored, in my view.
Am I about to make the same mistake twice? Possibly, but possibly not. Southwell is different to Wolverhampton, and the 12 draw in these conditions is no advantage but neither as dramatic a disadvantage either, especially in this field, where there is little pace to fear from the lower gates.
That means May Remain should find it not too difficult to cross over and find himself in an ideal spot, without wasting tons of energy. If that does work out this way indeed, then he will have a huge chance to win, now that he races over 6 furlongs again.
He doesn’t stay 7 furlongs. He never truly did. With that in mind I was repeatedly impressed how well the veteran has performed this winter over a trip stretching him to the absolute limit. He ran well more often than not, and showed a good attitude at the same time.
In my view, in a Handicap over 6f with a good draw, he would be a good chance of his last handicap mark (54). He’s down to 50, though, and that makes him eligible to run in this contest.
If I am correct in believing the lto run has falsely led to this reduction in his rating, given he had no chance from his draw that day, then he’s clearly better than the vast majority of horses in this really poor Classified Stakes.
In any case, for what it’s worth, the big prices are quickly vanishing for May Remain this evening. Thankfully I started checking the exchanges early enough to get bits and pieces on throughout to get my full stake matched at a nice overall price, although no chance to get the earlier 8’s+.
If things don’t work out on Sunday, he’s got an entry next Tuesday at Newcastle in a similar race.
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