Tag Archives: Lingfield

Betting

Thursday Selections: 22nd December 2022

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I am prepared to give Havana Goldrush another chance, despite a major disappointment only a couple of days at Kempton.

It was an odd race on Monday. Certainly the winner was too well handicapped as the handbrake came off. But that had nothing to do with the poor showing of Havana Goldrush, who finished a long way beaten, in no relation to his excellent recent performances.

One of the possible reasons was the way the race developed from his wider than ideal draw in the early stages of the race. The gelding raced ide, not finding cover, and using valuable energy. He tends to be a tricky sort, so no surprise to see that it was game over before the race even really began. In any case, the performance was too bad to be true.

Hence I remain interested in Havana Goldrush once again. He was a massive eyecatcher on his penultimate run – he confirmed his excellent form, as I felt the two preceding runs deserved to be upgraded for various reasons, as well.

In the October race at Kempton, then over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome the widest draw, was bumped by a rival as the gates opened, was pushed to the outside as a consequence, and had to regain momentum. He found his stride swiftly, and then travelled strongly in the middle of the field.

Seemingly going best in the home straight, when looming large 2 furlongs from home, he failed to put the race to bed, apparently hanging in the closing stages and possibly paying for the trouble at the beginning of the race.

As touched on, his two runs prior were noteworthy as well: a strong 3rd place in September at Chelmsford over a mile, when he attempted to make all, and possibly was doing too much too soon. A few weeks earlier he finished third over the same CD, when badly hampered at crucial times of the race.

Those performances indicated Havana Goldrush is seemingly holding his form quite well, and is ready to strike, when he gets a clear run…. with the caveat that Mondays run puts a big question mark behind it all.

He’ll have assistance of a solid 5lb claiming apprentice once again. Draw and pace chart look favourable, in a sense he shouldn’t need to waste loads of energy to slot in a couple of lengths behind the leader.

10pts win – Havana Goldrush @ 9.5/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 19th December 2022

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Before talking about more mundane things, such as a 0-70 Handicap at Kempton, I must mention the sublime: Charles Dickens!

South Africa has a new superstar – perhaps the most exciting colt for a long time, indeed. When someone like Mike de Kock says this, you must take note:

 “….the best I’ve seen since our own Horse Chestnut won the Guineas 23 years ago”

I’ve been following the progress of this son of Trippi for a while, and certainly felt ever since his Grade 3 Cape Classic victory he could be something special.

Of course, you hope, but you never can be totally sure whether such bonkers performances are real or simply down to some freak conditions on the day. Well, Charles Dickens followed up in similar style, before going into the Grade 1 Cape Guineas as the heavy odds-on favourite on Saturday.

He delivered in the most incredible way possible, in a strong renewal of the Cape Guineas, left his rivals standing still as he changed gear over two furlongs from home. You won’t see many easier winners in a Grade 1.

Spectacular, sublime, unreal, brilliant, outrageous… take your pick. I struggle to find actual words to properly describe this performance!

………….

2.50 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

This is a rather competitive race for a modest Monday card at Kempton. You can make more or less solid cases for probably half the field. The pace scenario is certainly intriguing. Hard to call what’s going to happen.

Favourite Brains is handicapped to win, no doubt: the handbrake was off last time out, when he wasn’t quite the luckiest, though; same mark today, 9lb lower than his last winning mark and a solid 3lb claimer on board.

Obvious chances, however, quite a short price, one I wouldn’t want to trust with my money in a hot race as this, I must say.

There is solid opposition in Covert Mission, who may be a touch too high in the ratings now, but he loves this course and distance and has the form in the book to go close.

Buick on board of Exciting News, on her All-Weather Handicap debut. She will enjoy this additional furlong today and is dangerous off her rating, but ultimately difficult to gauge.

Lost In Time caught the eye two races back – if this is a muddling affair he’s not out of it; although I prefer to see him over 7 furlongs.

No question, though, the one I am really interested in from a betting point of view is Havana Goldrush. A massive eyecatcher when last seen, he confirmed his excellent form, as I felt the two preceding runs deserved to be upgraded for various reasons.

Last time out at Kempton, then over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome the widest draw, was bumped by a rival as the gates opened, was pushed to the outside as a consequence, and had to regain momentum. He found his stride swiftly, and then travelled strongly in the middle of the field.

Seemingly going best in the home straight, when looming large 2 furlongs from home, he failed to put the race to bed, apparently hanging in the closing stages and possibly paying for the trouble at the beginning of the race.

As touched on, his two runs prior to this most recent October race were noteworthy as well: a strong 3rd place in September at Chelmsford over a mile, when he attempted to make all, and possibly was doing too much too soon. A few weeks earlier he finished third over the same CD, when badly hampered at crucial times of the race.

Those performances indicate Havana Goldrush is holding his form quite well, and is ready to strike, when he gets a clear run.

It’s a slightly easier race today, and get the assistance of apprentice Taylor Fisher, who’s value for his 5lb claim. The downside is a wider than ideal draw, although perhaps less of an issue with only seven other rivals in the race.

Havana Goldrush tends to hang in finishes, he’s clearly a tricky sort. Nonetheless, I feel, even in this competitive Handicap, if he gets a clear run, he’s going to be difficult to beat today.

10pts win – Havana Goldrush @5/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #4

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather.

Aberama Gold
03/12/22 – 6.20 Wolverhampton:

Soon moved forward, took lead, before heading for home as part of leading duo; tried to kick, fought gamely, before tiering inside the finial furlong.

This should be strong form, as it was a good field with some horses in decent form. He ran right up to his current rating. Has been dropped 2lb right after this. Won off 85 on turf this year.

Clearly in fine form as evidence by subsequent fine 3rd place performance at Lingfield. I want to see a drop below a mark of 85. A Handicap over 6 furlongs around Chelmsford with a good draw would be a dream scenario.

Race Replay

He’s So Brazen
05/12/22 – 6.20 Wolverhampton:

Restrained early on, seriously keen, as he was throughout, especially between 5 to 4 furlongs out. Loomed large with seemingly big challenge entering home straight. High head-carriage, looked awkward, wandering, and ran into trouble over one furlong out.

Probably doesn’t get the trip, either. He looks desperate for a drop in trip, and looks ripe to strike then. I won’t back him beyond 7 furlongs, though.

Comes from a pretty poor family. Wouldn’t want to give him many chances. Attitude needs to be monitored too.

Race Replay

Mobashr
05/12/22 – 7.20 Wolverhampton:

Grabbed an uncontested lead, set good pace from the front, lead for home, tired badly as he was headed. Good race for this class, form can be upgraded.

Change of tactics seemed to bring out improvement. Started well this time, unlike often in the past. Dropped another 2lb in the meantime. Seems to recapture some form for a new yard.

Should be well handicapped now. Similar type race, 7 furlongs with good draw and not much pace will be ideal.

Race Replay

Tothenines
05/12/22 – 7.20 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield for majority of the race. Eye catching progress from three furlongs out on the inside. Had momentum slightly stopped in home straight before fully in the clear. Didn’t find too much in final furlong.

Probably not at his best over 7 furlongs. Best form over 6 furlongs. Eye catching when last seen over this trip at Newcastle. Bit too high in the mark right now. Wait for drop to 6f and I would like to see him below a mark of 78. Ideally at Southwell.

He’s a tricky customer. Can find trouble, make a mess at the start and will always be up against pace bias on the All-Weather. Below 78 he’ll be quite well handicapped though, to offset these negatives.

Race Replay

Smarden Flyer
07/12/22 – 11.20 Lingfield:

Moved forward, pushed pace early in the race. Slightly impeded over 4f out, had to take a pull. Attempted challenge over 3f out on the outside, gave ground away before finishing tired, 4th.

Solid run, 2nd after small break. had a wind operation in June. Jury is out whether he is totally fine in his breathing. He hasn’t finished a race well since then, but this was a return to some form, and he was perhaps only tired in the end.

I am prepared to give him a chance off a career lowest mark next time out over 7-8f, as he has been dropped another 3lb post race. That looks potentially lenient.

Race Replay

Hellavapace
07/12/22 – 11.20 Lingfield:

Pushed forward from widest draw to grab the lead. Put under pressure over 2f out, got quite tired in the home straight and fell away.

Ran quite well a number of times in recent weeks; in fact this year, caught the eye in early summer on turf. Struggles to get a real chance from the handicapper, but has been dropped another 2lb and is clearly competitive.

I want to see her to drop down to a mark of 50 or lower, and ideally into 0-50 against her own sex.

Race Replay

Flying Secret
07/12/22 – 1.25 Lingfield:

Not helped by #7 draw and the way race unfolded. Outpaced at the back of the field halfway through, but finished incredibly well, the strongest in the final furlong.

Caught eye a number of times. Especially at Salisbury on turf back in May, but also excellent return of half a year off at Kempton.

Likely needs the step up to 7 furlongs to be seen to best effect. Remains unexposed and open to improvement. Has shown enough to give him a chance.

Race Replay

Champagne Supanova
08/12/22 – 8.00 Chelmsford:

Held up at the back, travelled notably well into the home straight, made nice progress on the inside under an easy enough hands and heels ride.

First start since August, trip not ideal, didn’t look in this to run to his merit. Drop to 6f will see him competitive, should drop below last winning mark too.

Strong run four runs back in March over 6f at Lingfield off 63. Won last December off 59, ran to 63 speed rating. Couple of efforts in the 50’s in the meantime. Can be tricky some days, but clearly ripe to win if on a going day and the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

May Remain
09/12/22 – 12.15 Wolverhampton:

Repeat entry to the list from Eyecatchers #3 – another excellent performance, albeit once again over 7 furlongs, which is literally a furlong too far, as was evidence here once again. Led strongly from the front before hitting the wall in the home straight.

Very game, great attitude, even when beaten. Reduction in the mark on the cards now, especially after subsequent solid, but uneventful run over 7f three days later.

The handicapper should have enough reasons to ease him in the ratings. Once the drop to 6f comes he’s gonna be a strong bet.

Race Replay

Independent Beauty
09/12/22 – 8.15 Southwell

In rear on inside, travelled well enough. Incredible progress from three to final furlong against inside rail, before tiering, Strong performance in competitive race – winner won nto again.

Still a maiden, but looks to be capable to take advantage of basement mark soon. Ran much better over shorter 6f at Newcastle lto. 7f looks ideal.

Can be ridden closer to the pace. Has entry for fillies 7f handicap next week, and there certainly of interest.

Race Replay

Vespasian
10/12/22 – 4.50 Wolverhampton:

Moved forward to lead, set strong fractions, part of pace setting duo. Still lead approaching final furlong and only headed late, by eventual winner from off the pace.

Seriously strong piece of form. Returned from a long break and after being gelded; looks high enough in the mark on speed ratings but not impossible to find improvement, especially with wellbeing confirmed.

Quite consistent before his break, often placed and ran with credit. Front-running tactics seem to suit; so always of interest over 6f on AW.

Race Replay

Minesbiggerthanurs
10/12/22 – 4.50 Wolverhampton:

Part of the pace setting due, kept the leader honest, racing on his outside. Still right there with a furlong to go before he got tired.

Comeback run and gelded, still lightly raced, can improve after only six career starts. Some good performances, won well from front at Kempton last winter.

Things went wrong at Southwell in hot class 3 contest before his break, when beaten by progressive Tyber Flow. Can be upgraded.

Race Replay

Sergeant Tibbs
12/12/22 – 1:12 Lingfield:

Restrained at the back of the small field, well off pace turning for home, although travelled notably well. Started move before badly short of room over 1 furlong out. Had to delay, got going again to finish fastest over last two furlongs.

Was well backed, and clearly in tremendous form, as evidence by other recent performances as well. Possibly really well handicapped, too; may struggle on All-Weather due to his racing style, though.

Probably best over 6 furlongs, seems to have pace for minimum trip, and one to keep in mind for the next turf season, unless he gets any more help from the handicapper and finds the right race on the All-Weather.

Race Replay

Aurelia Gold
12/12/22 – 1.42 Lingfield:

Moved forward quickly, led early then tracked leader, off the bridle 3f out but kept going strongly before carried over by eventual winner over 1f out.

Frustrating sort, still a maiden. Second run for new yard. Ran 4x times to speed rating 52+. Down to intriguing mark. Would be really interesting down to 7 furlongs, ideally in a fillies race; I don’t think she truly stays 1 mile.

Race Replay

With Respect
14/12/22 – 12.50 Lingfield:

Bit awkward out of #1 gate, needed encouragement to move forward, did so eventually to take lead as part of a duo. Travelled well into the home straight before finishing very tired.

Second run after two years off. Intriguing comeback run at Kempton, when bumped early, and seriously keen subsequently. Smart as a juvenile on his debut running to a 90 speed rating. Issues subsequently, and long break.

Wasn’t expected last two runs. One to monitor for the right day, possibly better over 7 furlongs if allowed to stride forward.

Race Replay

Dashing To You
14/12/22 – 1:55 Lingfield:

Possibly hampered at the start (hard to see but mentioned in race commentary), certainly slowly into stride, never really travelling before turning for home; excellent progress from 3f out, finished strongly.

Unlucky last time out as well, clearly a tricky sort. Could be quite well handicapped when he can put it all together, ran 3 times to speed ratings higher than current mark. Would love to see a return to 10f.

Race Replay

John The Baptist
14/12/22 – 3:30 Kempton:

Under drive early to get into position, outpaced from 4f out, lost many positions in the home straight until he rallied incredibly strongly in the final furlong to finish 4th.

First good run since a debut win in Ireland. Probably better than current 60 rating, as the finish to this race is a clear indication, if he ever can put it all together.

Difficult sort, as evidence by headgear combination. Will need to step up to 1m to be seen to best effect, but needs to settle to have a real chance.

Race Replay

Brandy Station
15/12/22 – 2:33 Southwell:

Prominent on stands’ side, travelled well enough but increasingly outpaced halfway through the race. Stayed on strongly in the final furlong, finishing the fastest.

Strong speed rating of 58, in line with his best performances. In excellent form. Southwell 5f specialist. Always with a chance over this CD, ideally with a low draw.

May be too closely handicapped to his best current form at the moment, though. Ideally would love to see one or two lesser runs at different tracks before returning to this CD off lower mark.

Race Replay

Arlecchino’s Gift
16/12/22 – 1:25 Southwell:

Wide draw, travelled on the outside, didn’t look entirely happy there and was pushed out even wider by a rival 4f out. Hang in the home straight, finished well beaten.

Wasn’t expected, returned from small break. Won 3 times this year, twice on the All-Weather, all over 6 furlongs. Bit too high in the ratings right now. One to wait for to drop a few more pounds and watch the market.

Race Replay

Testing Faith
16/12/22 – 3.10 Southwell:

Was quickest out of the gate, but possibly didn’t quite have the pace to stay in the lead; badly hampered 7f out, race was probably over there and then. Faded badly in the home straight; entitled to, after 111 days off.

Still a maiden, but showed some promise earlier this year. Falls rapidly in his mark to a rating he could be seriously well handicapped.

His pedigree suggests a step up to 10 furlongs will be interesting. He only had one try, right before his break, and it’s fair to conclude that run is best to forgive. Can move forward. One to keep an eye on in the next weeks.

Race Replay

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 13th December 2022

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2:13: Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Ooh Is It is back over the minimum trip and has been left untouched by the handicapper after his latest eye catching front-running performance over 6 furlongs.

That day he started quickly and set the world alight in the first half of the race. No surprise to see him tire rather badly from 3f out. Nonetheless, he still held a 1 lengths advantage at the final furlong marker.

This is strong form, a good race in my view. The winner was well handicapped and caught the eye before. Ooh Is It ran to strong 71 speed rating as well – in comparison to his current mark that’s seriously intriguing, as he’s currently on a mark of 68.

The fact he ran so well over 6 furlongs, a trip I believe is too far, means he should be in excellent form right now. Clearly he’s rated to win. He ran three times to speed ratings 70+, all his best performances over 5 furlongs, nine pounds below his last winning mark from January this year.

The #3 draw here is a positive. Even though it’s a straight five, a low draw has proven favourable over this CD. The question mark is whether he’ll be drawn into a pace battle. There is plenty of it in this race.

He’s got an entry on Saturday at Lingfield over 5 furlongs again, perhaps another prime chance, in case this one doesn’t go to plan. In any case, Ooh Is It is ready to rock.

10pts win – Ooh Is It 5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 9th December 2022

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4.10 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Waverley Star Fast caught the eye with a pretty solid front-running performance recently, which represented a clear return to form, coinciding with a drop down to the minimum trip on the All-Weather.

He started quickly, led the field for home, kicked on from 3f out out, still going well turning into the home straight before he was eventually headed with half a furlong to go, having slowed dramatically.

That was his first proper, “well-rounded” performance since being gelded in the summer. He’s always been a somewhat tricky customer, and remains to be one even after the gelding operation.

In any case, he looks a pure 5 furlongs sprinter, though, and one can ignore any attempts over further, in my view. Over the minimum trip he ran a number of times well this year, both on turf and the All-Weather.

Most notably when a strong finishing 4th over this course and distance in March on a day where everything went wrong. He also ran to a 51 speed rating then, which means, in theory, he’s got a really good chance to be seriously competitive off his current handicap mark, in this class, if in the right mood.

He’s 4lb lower today than that day, has been dropped another pound since his recent Lingfield run, on a mark of 50, down from a career highest 59 in summer.

With additional 3lb taken off by excellent apprentice Ryan Sexton Waverley Star makes plenty of appeal on the handicapping side of things. He’s got a good, low draw today, and there is likely to be little pace to compete against.

Granted he gets a solid start, there is every chance he can get an easy lead. An ideal scenario for the 3-year-old gelding, who does his best work from the front.

10pts win – Waverley Star @ 9/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 7th December 2022

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Good run by Wadacre Grace yesterday at Southwell. It wasn’t quite good enough, though: 2nd place.

I have no complaints, there were no excuses. She got a lovely ride and found one too good. In that sense I was perhaps too optimistic in believing she she was more than only a couple of pounds ahead of her mark.

………

1.25 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

This is a competitive sprint. Tyger Bay is obviously one I am interested in and he should run well, but may find this ultimately a bit too hot off his current mark that is no more than fair in these circumstances.

Flying Secret is another one who caught the eye, although that was as far back as May, on turf. He steps up significantly in class now back in Handicap company. However, as the bottom weight in this field he makes a ton of appeal for various reasons.

For one: I loved his return at Kempton last month after half a year off the track. He was a bit too keen in the early parts of the race, perhaps too fresh, but the slow pace didn’t help either.

He kicked nicely from 3 furlongs out and held his effort pretty well to the line, despite being entitle to tire. He will be fitter today, most likely, and the pace should work in his favour.

The 3-year-old gelding should be ahead of his mark stepping back into handicap competition, and I have no worries in this class. His Salisbury run in May was seriously strong, as he finished much the best for 3rd place, not getting the clearest of runs.

This form is strong. The winner is 18lb higher rated today, the runner-up won subsequently, too. He ran to a 70 speed raring, not fully ridden out, even. His current mark 0f 73 may underestimate the true potential.

I don’t like the #7 draw and wonder whether he may be too far off the pace today, though. But I hope a strong pace will bring the leaders back, and this lad has the ability to kick and finish strongly.

10pts win – Flying Secret @ 4/1

……..

8.00 Kempton: Class 2 Handicap, 2m

If the Lingfield race is competitive, then this final of the stayers’ series is ultra competitive. Usually this isn’t my type of race to get involved, given I largely specialise in shorter races and certainly not in these hot long-distance contests.

But Bandinelli is one I have on the list for a while and he did nothing but enhance his claims in the Northumberland Plate in my view: always travelling well, coming with a big challenge in the home straight, before short of room 3f out, having his momentum stopped, getting going again, and eventually tiering into 6th place.

This is a really good stayer, and he’s 2lb lower than at Newcastle, only a pound above his mark when landing a good Handicap over 2 miles here at Kempton.

It would be harsh to judge him on his comeeback run over this CD three weeks ago. He clearly needed the run and will be better today. If back to his best form from earlier this year, he’s the one to beat. I have no doubt he can turn the form around with Rainbow Dreamer and Island Brave.

He’s got a fine draw to get to a prepared prominent position with much fuss – the race should be set up perfectly for him to make his move from over 2 furlongs out at the cutaway.

The Appleby yard looks solid form. No indication that there is anything to worry about. Bandinelli is two from three over this course and distance and this being only his 6th run over the trip, it’s not impossible that he can find one or two pounds of improvement.

10pts win – Bandinelli @ 9/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #3

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather.

Foxy Rascal
31/10/22 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Bit slowly away, outpaced early on, had a lot to do turning for home, positioned well off the pace, maneuvered through the field to get into a challenging position on the outside entering the final furlong. Finished seriously strong, much the best over the last two furlongs.

First time off a break and wind operation. Looks ahead of her mark once she steps back up to 6 furlongs, if her breathing holds up over the additional furlong. She was a 6f winner at Newcastle as a juvenile.

Already ran to 78 and 79 speed ratings on turf, a solid return on speed figures here as well. If she can repeat this level of performance up in trip she is could be hard to beat. Starting issues need to be monitored, though. and can hamper chances on the sand significantly.

Ran on 11/11 in the meantime. Eye-catching progress from 4f to 2f out, something amiss in closing stages, reportedly bled from the nose.

Race Replay

Making Music
31/10/22 – 1.20 Kempton:

Quickly out of the gates, tracked leader, quite keen in first time blinkers for first half of the race. Travelled well into home straight. Made move from 2f out, tired inside final furlong, couldn’t sustain it, possibly paid for keenness.

Ran to a speedrating 63 in August at Wolverhampton, 7lb lower now. Still a maiden and two poor recent showings in the meantime, though the 8.5f are beyond her stamina I think, and she was a massive drifter in the betting the last time.

She is better than that and could prove to be seriously competitive off her current mark. I want to see her down to 7f in a race without much pace to fight against, though.

Race Replay

Inclement Weather
31/10/22 – 1.52 Kempton:

Settled in midfield letting the hot pace go. Big move at the top of the home straight to reel in the pace setter. Fell down a cliff in the final furlong.

Clearly in good form as she backed this performance up with another strong effort next time out as she ran well all year, and therefore only drops slowly down to an intiruiging handicap mark. Won off 59 in January, ran to 57 speed figure in summer, albeit over 7 furlongs.

I’ll be interested if she drops to 7 furlongs again – but need to watch her mark, whether it remains unchanged after these last two efforts. She may go up a few pounds now.

Race Replay

Lady Celia
01/11/22 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Slowly away but also bumped by horse out of neighbouring gate. Lit up and never seemed happy subsequently. Made bit of headway from 2 furlongs before fading.

She’s better than this and better than last forms. But: she is also one to put away for the winter and pull out for the 2023 turf season – I won’t back her on the All-Weather.

Her poor starts will always put her at a disadvantage on the All-Weather. On turf it can be less of an issue. “Thanks” to her poor form recently she will return with a lovely low mark to turf next year.

There are very specific conditions to keep an eye out: she needs a low weight – she is 0/21 if running off higher than 8-12. She clearly prefers smaller fields and will be best placed in a fillies races over 5 furlongs.

Race Replay

Bayraat
01/11/22 – 5.00 Southwell:

Slightly bumped after the start, quickly moved forward, led as part of duo, found plenty under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Caught late. Could be strong piece of form.

Late Handicap debut, high enough opening mark but clearly up to it. Also potentially well handicapped on penultimate Novice form when runner-up. Winner is 83 rated, third franked form off OR 66 in Handicap.

Unlikely to stay beyond 7 furlongs. Forgive nto (15/11) over 7 furlongs when also restraint and never in the race.

Race Replay

Expert Opinion
03/11/22 – 6.00 Chelmsford:

Bit outpaced and awkward early on when caught off the pace from his wider than ideal draw. Hang around the bend, ran home strongly in the home straight for 3rd place. Ran near identical race, although better travelling early on, two weeks later over same CD.

Quirky sort. But down to good mark. Ran to 64 and 63 speed ratings the last two times; similar sort of performances within the last twelve months multiple times off higher handicap marks, as well.

Change of headgear will be really interesting (blinkers) to try and focus him on the job. Normally well capable of travelling strongly tracking the pace over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Going Underground
04/11/22 – 3.05 Newcastle:

Field crawled along for majority of the race, hence was at disadvantage travelling off pace. Made eye-catching progress from 3 furlongs out and looked to come with winning move, but didn’t get the gap until it was too late. Finished well.

Was equally unlucky next time out in the meantime, when denied at short odds once again in desperate circumstances.

Look still ahead of the mark, despite being 7lb higher than when winning nicely a few weeks ago. Is one who clearly can meet trouble in-running. Starting slowly doesn’t help. Not one I want to back at a really short price and if there is a lack of pace in the race.

Twistaline, who was mentioned in a recent edition, endured a sort of similar fate in this race and caught the eye. She’ll remain on my list.

Race Replay

Beattie is Back
04/11/22 – 5.45 Newcastle:

Travelled strongly in midfield, loomed large 2 furlongs out. Continuously a clear run denied, dropped to back of field before finishing strongly in final half furlong right to the line.

Lightly raced, huge run lto, strong form. Stays 7 furlongs too. Possibly needs the step up to be seen to best effect, but deserves another chance over 6 furlongs, too.

Clearly ready to win, but hold-up style not ideal, especially over the shorter trip. Didn’t get an ideal race next time out, too, then over 7 furlongs. Remains of interest, in any case.

Race Replay

Aljari
05/11/22 – 5.00 Chelmsford:

Wide draw in #9, quite keen early as pace wasn’t fast, then travelled seriously well into the home straight. Was mounting strong challenge but couldn’t move through on inside due to tiering rivals around. Got nicely going late when angled out.

This was his comeback ran after break for new yard. Judged on this looked in serious form and confirmed this with another eye catching effort earlier this week, meeting trouble once again.

He’s clearly down to good mark and ready to win. Ran to speed rating 76 last October and 84 in 2020. Want to see him away from Chelmsford, though. Wouldn’t mind six furlongs.

Race Replay

War In Heaven
05/11/22 – 5.00 Chelmsford:

Keen after the start, stumbled badly soon after, jockey just managed to stay on. Very keen subsequently, dropped to rear of field. Finished well to the eye under an easy ride.

Second start for new yard after being gelded too. Didn’t handle Newmarket. Showed some talent earlier this year. Full-bother to useful French juvenile filly Bolivie, who is rated 89 if converted to a British handicap mark.

Ran on Friday. Was a huge drifter in the betting after noon. Bumped a rival soon after the start. Never travelled, before making some nice headway late. I am prepared to give him another chance.

If allowed to run on his merit, this gelding could likely be seriously well handicapped.

Race Replay

Lost In Time
09/11/22 – 6.30 Kempton:

Reared in stall and a consequence slowly away, settled in rear, loads to do from off the pace in a race where the pace wasn’t really on. Sliced his way through the field in impressive manner, without being hard ridden. Finished the last three furlongs fastest.

Second run off a break and for a new yard. Clearly in good nick and down to interesting mark. Ran well in the summer. Can forgive subsequent poor showing. Achieved three 77+ speed ratings, although these date back some time now.

Not sold on a mile, probably 7 furlongs will be ideal. But will keep an open mind, it’s going to be a judgement call. A race with lack of pace over a mile not out of question, given he tends to race prominently, normally.

Race Replay

All Are Mine
10/11/22 – 8.00 Chelmsford:

Widest draw and not quite so sharply away, but soon moved aggressively forward to join the leader, bit keen. Travelled well into the home straight. No match for winner but did well to hold on for second.

Was a serious eye-catcher on debut in May. Won a maiden at Windsor in the meantime. Will be really interesting once he moves up to 10 furlongs, given the pedigree, out of a solid German Diane Trial mare. Should be better than this mark then.

Race Replay

Sovereign Slipper
12/11/22 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Overcame wide draw to cross over quickly and track the pace. Bit too keen in the early stages, but then travelled really powerfully into the home straight. No match for winner who had it a bit easier.

Possibly points to the fact he’s got not much in hand right now. Was progressive last year. Comeback run lto can be discounted. Should enjoy step up to 7 furlongs on pedigree.

His tendency to race keenly is a concern. If he can settle, he could find some improvement over that trip, as he already ran to a good speed rating that could mean he’s then well handicapped – if the aforementioned conditions are met, that says.

Race Replay

Give A Little Back
12/11/22 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Slowly away from his wide draw trailing and outpaced halfway through, before making serious progress from over 3f out, finished clear second best, without being asked to fully extend.

Trip too sharp. Showed he can race more prominently over further in the past. Second start after small break and for new yard.

Showed bit of talent when fine 3rd in a Wolverhampton maiden over 7 furlongs in May; 1.5l behind first and second who are 81 and 83 rated these days.

Clearly must have had issues since then but is possibly a bit better than a mark of 68. Interesting up in trip and if the market shows a bit of love.

Race Replay

Fair and Square
14/11/22 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Had it pretty easy to get to the lead, although not uncontested. Travelled strongly to 1.5f out, then tired gradually, still held on for fine 2nd, couldn’t match momentum of winner from further back in the field.

Still a maiden. But often runs well, to give the handicapper not many reasons to drop him in a meaningful way, other than piecemeal one or two pounds here and there.

Ran 4x to speed ratings 59+ on all surfaces. I feel he needs a below par run to get a meaningful drop in the ratings. Once that happened, he’ll be seriously interesting.

Race Replay

Bin Hayyan
15/11/22 – 6.45 Newcastle:

Restrained in rear, huge disadvantage as the field crawled for the first half of the race. Eye-catching progress from three furlongs out, travelled strongly, but clear run denied until approaching final furlong when finishing much the best.

Was a big price, and unusual race tactics deployed. On a pretty good mark already. market will be guide to his chances. If on a proper going day, and ridden closer the pace again, could be well handicapped over 7 furlongs max.

Race Replay

Global Walk
16/11/22 – 4.38 Southwell:

Quickly overcame his wide draw to move forward and track the leader as first follower. Travelled well into the home straight but tired quite badly from 2f out.

Return after 13 months off the track. Won well when last seen, the form of that novice contest worked out well. Likely to be better than this and could have more to offer off OR 80, with this run under his belt and from a better draw.

Race Replay

Starter For Ten
16/11/22 – 8.30 Kempton:

Total nonsense ride. Call it dumb or deliberate…. in any case, price gave it away, he wasn’t expected to run well.

Ducked left from second widest draw, rushed forward on wide outside going after the seriously strong leader and eventual winner. Faded away soon.

Was pretty consistent this year, got desperately close at Southwell, ran to 60 speed rating there, other mid-50s since then, ties in well with previous best speed ratings produced.

Will be really interesting below mark of 60 again over 6 furlongs.

Race Replay

Dark Side Prince
17/11/22 – 7.30 Chelmsford:

In the middle of the pack in a wild first furlong, went wide around the home turn and gave a lot of ground away before fading in straight. Didn’t seem to enjoy the chaos of the first half of the race.

Since his return from a break the last two he hasn’t look as good and sharp as when winning three on the bounce last year. But these two runs can be upgraded for various reasons in my view.

Comes down to good mark again. Would want to see next time whether he shows a bit more sharpness, and ideally has another run that sees his mark drop to 65 or lower.

Race Replay

Mick’s Spirit
17/11/22 – 7.30 Chelmsford:

Went forward and set fast fractions, doing too much to get to that pole position. Looked like to get a bit of a break from 2f out, before going down late.

Really consistent front-runner. Therefore somewhat in the grip of the handicapper. One to keep an eye on for a poor run that could help to see the handicapper giving him a chance.

Race Replay

Motawaafeq
18/11/22 – 4.10 Kempton:

Aggressive run from the front, went too hard in the first half of the race and faded from 2f out on first run since April.

Won a seller when last seen prior to this comeback. Usually a front-runner. Can go over 7f and a mile; have no interest beyond that.

Ran twice to speed ratings 69+ on the All-Weather (1m, Kempton). Whether he’s still quite as good remains to be seen. Want to see a bit more help from the handicapper, then in the right conditions a compelling selection.

(Runs Saturday this afternoon. #10 draw over 8.5 doesn’t strike as ideal conditions)

Race Replay

Wadacre Grace
18/11/22 – 4.10 Kempton:

Better start than lto when completely missing it, albeit still not overly sharp, soon went forward to join the leader pushing a good pace, before dropping into second. Found plenty under pressure, especially staying on strongly in the final furlong for 2nd place.

Especially impressive after pushing the pace to finish so well. Ties in well with her eye-catching lto performance. She is clearly ripe to win, but starting issues are always a question mark.

Still lightly raced enough to find a couple pounds of improvement. She stays a mile and has initriguing entries against her own sex next week.

Race Replay

Solanna
18/11/22 – 4.10 Kempton:

Restrained from #10 draw. Trailed field. Started to make excellent progress from 3f out. Couldn’t quite sustain strong challenge in final furlong but also not the clearest of runs through.

Perhaps showed more than connections may have wanted. best performance when no worse than midfield, tracking pace. This run clearly indicates a horse in good form.

Caught the eye on penultimate run as well when way too aggressive from front. Will be really interesting down in class 6, ideally with a tiny bit of help from the handicapper, too.

Race Replay

Vitesse Du Son
18/11/22 Kempton – 8.15 Kempton:

Moved rapidly forward and set a fast pace. Started to slow markedly from over three furlongs out. Had to pay tribute to early exertions, before the cavalry came from behind and swallowed him up in earnest.

Good performance after small break. Ran a number of good races this season, but career best on sand. Want to see a couple pounds less, a mark of 48, over 7 furlongs will spark my financial interest.

Stays a mile, though and nearly stole it the next time over 8.5f at Wolverhampton. May run well next time and could be in the grip of the handicapper. I’m happy to wait for the right day, granted he still shows the same spark as he did over the last half year.

Race Replay

Surprise Picture
19/11/22 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Hurried up to move forward from the gates, bit awkward. Tracked pace, not an economical run. Short of room 1f from home when coming with a challenge. Strong piece of form.

Caught the eye early in November, too, when caught wide, and again received a seriously uneconomical ride.

Multiple times ran to speed ratings of 68+ this year. Clearly on a winnable mark. Can stay a mile but I don’t want to back him beyond 7 furlongs these days as his best performances this year come over the sprint distances and they are my reference.

(Runs Saturday: 8.5f at Wolverhampton)

Race Replay

May Remain
26/11/22 – 7.50 Wolverhampton:

Led from low draw, although pestered. Kicked on well, but ultimately no chance with impressive winner from off the pace. Did well to hold on for second. Clear second best, despite trip too far.

6 furlongs max. Interesting if down in trip and with any further reduction in his mark. Caught the eye on turf in June, too.

Race Replay

Dubai Immo
26/11/22 – 7.50 Wolverhampton:

Slowly away, rushed up to get to the top of the field after the first furlong, did way too much in the first three furlongs but only faded late in the home straight, hanging to the left, as well.

Clearly a colt with issues but also some talent as spring form showed. Would be really interesting once gelded, ideally over 7 furlongs (certainly not beyond a mile) at Wolverhampton or Chelmsford. His sire has a strong record in those circumstances, too.

Race Replay

Ooh Is It
28/11/22 – 6.25 Wolverhampton:

Started quickly and set the world alight in the first half of the race. No surprise to see him tire rather badly from 3f out, nonetheless, still held a 1 lengths advantage at the final furlong marker.

This is strong form. Good race. Winner was well handicapped and caught the eye recently. Ooh Is It ran to strong 71 speed rating as well – in comparison to his current mark intriguing, if left alone by the handicapper, he’s certainly ready to win.

He doesn’t truly stays 6 furlongs. A few slightly odd performances lately. Once he drops down to the minimum trip I reckon he’ll be ready to rock.

Race Replay

The Thin Blue Line
28/11/22 – 6.25 Wolverhampton:

Widest draw, wide early, then settled last. Loads to do from back of the field but started to make serious headway from 3f out, always under hands and heels, until progress stopped at the final furlong marker when short of room. Fasted from 4f to 1f out.

Can race much more prominently, and best over the minimum trip. Will be interesting down to 5f. Down to last win mark (turf). Would love to see another run and couple pounds off before him racing over 5f again. Need to watch.

Race Replay

Bernard Spierpoint
28/11/22 – 8.25 Wolverhampton

Keen early on when grabbing the lead, hard to see most of the race due to fog. Caught and headed over 1f out. Ran well for very long over trip most likely too far.

Probably stays 6 furlongs and looks potentially seriously well handicapped now, especially as the run confirms his wellbeing.

His best all over the minimum trip. Want to see him down to 5f again. Will be very well handicapped then, if mark doesn’t creep up before.

Race Replay

Satin Snake
28/11/22 – 2.45 Kempton

Widest draw, trailed and still in last position 2f out, when outpaced from 3f out as pace increased. Excellent progress in the last two furlongs, finishing exceptionally well, especially against the pace bias in a slowly run race.

Second run for new yard. Stays 7 furlongs, also acts over 6 furlongs. Looks on good mark and ready to win a race.

Race Replay

Paddy K
28/11/22 – 3.15 Kempton:

Ducked left out of the gate (tends to do that), then moved rapidly forward to lead the field. Challenged from 2f out, hang twice from over 1f out, just tired inside the final half furlong. Speed rating matched his mark.

Not sure he truly stays 7 furlongs. Perhaps if uncontested setting easy fractions could get him to stay the trip. Otherwise 6f with good pace certainly preferred. Tricky horse. Can pull, can hang, can mess up at the gate, but clearly on a good mark now.

Caught the eye a few times lately, especially when last time over 6f at Newcastle: he rallied strongly, after showing early signs of keenness and bumping a rival. Also seriously strong on last turf start.

Doesn’t have tons in hand. Want to see mark untouched and ideal conditions either over 6 or 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Boom The Groom
29/11/22 – 3.20 Lingfield:

Quick start from gate #9. On the lead but pestered and kept honest, formed pace setting duo until turning for home when travelling sweetly. Not beaten far. Ran solid speed rating here, in line with current mark.

Limed runs on the All-Weather in last while. Down to good mark already. Still acts over 5 furlongs and stays 6 furlongs if not too much other pace around.

Ideally finds a way to get his mark reduced to 60 and drops into 0-60. Will be seriously well handicapped then. Need perfect pace scenario to become interested otherwise. Probably rated just about right to his current level now.

Race Replay

Spacer
29/11/22 – 5.50 Wolverhampton:

Good start, right up with pace setters early on before settling in 3rd. Under pressure from 3f out, seemingly came back to it entering the home straight before short of room and effort effort petered out.

Too high in the mark and class too hot. Caught the eye on turf in July and strong reference performance in October at Wolverhampton over 7 furlongs.

Doesn’t stay a mile. Needs a few pounds off. Want to see him over 7 furlongs and dropping into 0-75 class. It’s a wait and see with him over the next weeks.

Race Replay

Waverley Star
30/11/22 – 3.25 Lingfield:

Fast start, led the field for home, kicked on from 3f out out, still going well turning into the home straight. Headed with half a furlong to go.

He looks a pure 5f sprinter and will have options with a further reduction of his mark. Ran a few times really well, including a win, earlier this year, doing so off lower weights.

With a good draw and not much competition for the lead he’ll always have a chance off his current rating to go close over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Haseef
30/11/22 – 5.15 Kempton:

Bounced out of the gate and set solid early fractions. Good lead turning for home, but couldn’t really kick on 2f out and tired in the closing stages quite badly.

Doesn’t stay the trip, despite an eye-catching penultimate effort over the same CD. Would be interesting to see him race over 7 furlongs on the All-Weather again. Has proven form over 6 furlongs, too.

Ran twice to speed ratings 59+ this summer over sprint distances. Still a maiden after 15 runs but certainly not without hope.

Race Replay

Tricky Business
02/12/12 – 3.05 Newcastle:

Rapidly moved forward to grab uncontested lead, setting pretty good fractions. Beaten 2f out and fell completely away in the closing stages. Nothing that ran close to the pace was able to sustain an effort, though; everything came from off the pace here.

First start for new yard. No hope to stay a mile. Even 7 furlongs most likely a stretch. 6f is his trip. Buried the last runs without intend to do much.

In that context he caught the the eye here: he’s still all enthusiasm. Once in the right race, will be interesting.

Race Replay

Seesawing
02/12/22 – 5.15 Newcastle:

Led toward stands’ side, somewhat isolated. Travelled well, before hanging toward the middle of the track from 2f out; tiering late and losing a few places.

Entitled to tire, was 330 days off. Changed yards in November too. On a solid mark that offers opportunities. 7 furlongs with a turn could be really interesting – was placed at Kempton and Lingfield over 7f last year, ran to 63 speed rating as well.

There could well be a bit more to come after only eight career runs for this 5-year-old gelding.

Race Replay

Betting

Saturday Selections: 12th November 2022

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Oh the weekend feeling…. it would have been all the more jolly if Rose Bandit would have got a clear run last night at Wolverhampton. She would have won, I’m pretty adamant, if not for the most horrible trip.

It’s been a few light days over the last week in any case, but those selections I made ran great races; despite not getting a winner, I’m pretty satisfied with the work.

Beside the aforementioned Rose Bandit, who couldn’t have done better in the given circumstances, Pockley was also quite unlucky last Friday when deemed 2nd in what appeared, at least to the naked eye, a dead-heat (and it looked like he was possibly ahead before and after the line).

Stone Age ran a massive race to finish second in the BC Turf, and outperformed his odds by a wide margin. Even Twistaline ran really well but had simply too much to do from the back – with that in mind, is perhaps the one I may want to have back, because I knew this scenario would play out exactly this way and yet I fell into the trap of ignoring the pace bias.

That’s racing. That’s betting on horses. It’s not easy and one can only try to make good decisions, find quality bets, and the rest will take care of itself.

There’s one that caught my eye today – on what is actually quite a busy day on the All-Weather with some fine fields at Lingfield in particular. I’ll try to stick to the bi-weekly schedule and will be posting a new edition of eye catchers tomorrow.

………..

3.45 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 2m

A compelling races for stayers that may evolve around the pace. There won’t be many who are overly keen to get to soon to the front, and I imagine this won’t be run at a mad gallop.

If this turns out to be the case, then the ne who’s sure to move forward is Mark Johnston’s Wadacre Tir, and he could find himself in a prime spot when turning for home.

This is his second run after being gelded and he was far from disgraced over a similar trip at Southwell a fortnight ago. Whether he truly stays 2 miles remains to be seen, but first time blinkers should certainly help with sharpness.

If this isn’t an overly fast race, he may not even have to be fully tested for his staying qualities. In any case, though, Wadacre Tir should be in the right position when it matters most.

He’s a pound lower than when last seen, is still potentially open to some improvement after only seven career runs, especially now gelded, and could be seriously well weighted here off 8-13.

Interesting to see Clifford Lee booked for the ride. He’s one I quite like over longer distances. That ties in well with mark Johnston’s generally strong record at Lingfield over these marathon trips.

10pts win – Wadacre Tir @ 6/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #2

3 Comments

A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent days and weeks of racing on the All-Weather.

Eye Of The Water
17/10/22 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Widest draw, moved forward to join leader after the first bend. Pushed on and increased pace from 4 furlongs out, but eventually caught approaching the final furlong. held on for third.

Had to carry big weight dropping into 0-60. Ran right to current rating, possibly a couple of pounds better; in line with performances this year as he ran to speed ratings 60, 64 and 65. Also his January 3rd at Southwell over 6 furlongs from the widest draw off 65 rates strongly.

Ran next week over 8.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton another stormer from the front, just going down late.

Probably best over 6 furlongs. Will be really competitive over 7 furlongs with good draw as well. Really interesting next time over either distance, with good draw and possibly the assistance of a good claimer. He’s ready to win again.

Race Replay

Cleveleys
18/10/22 – 3.08 Newcastle:

Started well and led the field for half the race until put under pressure on the outside. Tired but kept going well enough to finish best of those up with the pace.

The slow tempo helped him to get home so well over this trip. 7 furlongs most likely the absolute limit for win purposes, and then in a race with an advantageous pace chart.

Caught the the eye before on turf in his first two runs for the O’Meara yard. Clearly in good nick and comes down to a possibly generous mark. Ran to speed ratings of 65 and 66 in October last year, although over sprint trips.

Can have issues at the gate, one with risks attached. Still, drop to 6 furlongs or 7 furlongs on the All-Weather will be interesting.

Race Replay

Quanah
18/10/22 – 4.13 Newcastle:

Led isolated on far side, set hot fractions and ran to 3 furlong marker faster than preceding class 3 6f Handicap. Tired soon after, as one would have excepted. Was big price too.

Poor showings last starts since return from break. But comes down to last winning mark and can be a big runner down to 5f again. Usually goes from the front.

Ran at Catterick on Tuesday 25th in the meantime, without having an impact.

Race Replay

Thrilla In Manila
18/10/22 – 5.20 Newcastle:

Set a seriously fast pace, despite not breaking the sharpest. Did too much and tired from 2 furlongs out. Overall race time and the pace he set compare favourably with Division I on the same card of the race.

This represented a solid return to form, after being heavily beaten on his comeback run off a near year long layoff.

Continues to drop to a good mark and can become dangerous over the minimum trip pretty soon.

Race Replay

Intervention
19/10/22 – 7.30 Kempton:

Reared in stalls, crossed soon over from widish draw in a wild opening phase. Was seriously keen throughout, yet travelled powerfully. Couldn’t go with the front-running winner – nothing could on the day – and tired in the final furlong.

Trip is too far, especially without any sort of pace to aim at. A drop to 6f will be ideal. Has been progressive and is possibly handicapped to his best. A reduction to under 80 with the right trip will be interesting again.

Race Replay

Tyger Bay
19/10/22 – 8.00 Kempton:

Dropped to rear of field soon after the start, had a lot to do, yet travelled much the best. Couldn’t get through until late, finished in eye-catching fashion.

One who often tends to catch the eye. Has won off 4lb higher over this CD earlier this year. Will need a bit of luck, as can start sluggishly.

It will be worth to wait until he drops down in grade and a few more pounds in the mark.

Ran at Catterick entry on Tuesday 25th in the meantime; excellent 3rd; doesn’t help the mark for the immediate future. One to monitor for a a while.

Race Replay

Nat Love
20/10/22 – 1.55 Southwell:

Went with the early pace from his #8 draw, travelling wide early one. Didn’t have much to offer when tired in the home straight.

The fact he remains enthusisatingly racing up with the pace is encouraging, though. This race came probably too soon, hence I can forgive the way he faded. It was a third race in the space of four weeks, after returning from 446 days off.

First two runs back appeared full of promise. Especially the Newcastle comeback run can be upgraded.

He’ll come down to a highly compelling mark. Once down to/below OR 60 he should be really well handicapped. He ran four times to speed ratings of 58+, three of those 60+.

Race Replay

Abbey Heights
20/10/22 – 3.05 Southwell:

Bounced out of the widest draw to move rapidly forward, lead the field. The damage was done at that point, all attempts to slow down didn’t help him from tiering badly.

Still a solid performance back from a year long break. The ability to break quickly and to travel well on the lead should see him competitive, especially off the current mark. Ran to a 76 speed rating when landing a solid Newcastle Novice race last year.

Race Replay

Milbanke
20/10/22 – 4.35 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly into the lead from widest draw, led the field by a couple of lengths, took a keen hold on this first attempt over 7 furlongs. Slowed the tempo down, and tried to kick on when put under pressure 3f out. Finished good second, running well to the line.

This performance ties in well with the lto run that can be upgraded when he travelled really wide. Won on debut over 6 furlongs last year, remains unexposed an open to progress, especially over this trip if he settles better, as the pedigree gives him every chance to stay 7 furlongs.

The new mark, 2lb lower now, should see him potentially quite well handicapped. He may be too short a price to back nto, though.

Race Replay

Roman Dynasty
22/10/22 – 6.30 Chelmsford:

Already mentioned in the last edition as one who caught the eye. Did so here again, even more dramatic this time. Always travelling off pace on the inside, he looked poised approaching the home straight. Came with a strong looking move over 1 furlong out but the gap closed in that very moment. Eased eventually.

Clearly in good form. I hope his mark will drop a couple of pounds now. He’s then a potentially well handicapped horse.

Race Replay

Dinoo
22/10/22 – 6.30 Chelmsford:

Travelled always wide and seriously keen as consequence of his draw. Refused to settle until late in the race. Went inside route in the home straight and could have gone close but had to delay full effort having to work his way through the field.

Big run given the circumstances and the energy he must have burned early on. Most likely will be better served down to 7 furlongs again. Usually raced prominently over that distance, but last twice off pace; perhaps to get him settled.

He ran to a 68 speed rating earlier tis year on turf. Comes down to a good mark now and is still unexposed on the All-Weather, having been placed on two of his three starts on the sand already. He should be really competitive for a drop to 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Twilight Madness
22/10/22 – 7.00 Chelmsford:

Bang up with pace from widest draw, always travelled wide and without cover. Kept going strongly to the line nonetheless; did much the best of pace setters.

Caught the eye the last two times on turf, too. Especially the Windsor performance was seriously impressive, given the circumstances and the big move he made mid-race.

This race confirmed he’s down to a good mark, and clearly capable to win off 74. Speed ratings say he hasn’t tons in hand, so it’s worth paying attention to draw and pace chart.

Race Replay

Lucky Lucky Lucky
24/10/22 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Not an eye-catching performance on the surface. But the fact he jumped off well and travelled enthusiastically was noteworthy as it suggests there is somewhere a performance still in him.

Was seriously unlucky at Redcar in August over 6 furlongs. Has mainly finished down the field subsequently, all over 7 furlongs.

Want to see him back over 6 furlongs here at Newcastle. Is a full-brother to a listed placed Dundalk mare. Pedigree would suggest he has a bit of stamina to stay a mile, but the way he travelled suggests 6 furlongs could be ideal.

His sire has an excellent record at Newcastle over this trip. Which ties in with this observation. Has an entry next week over 7 furlongs again. I’ll sit that out.

Race Replay

Never Dark
24/10/22 – 8.00 Newcastle:

Was early up with the pace on the outside toward the stands’ side as part of a trio. Tried to kick on over 2 furlongs but faded away entering the final furlong. Not far beaten.

Is quite consistent, got close a number of times year. As a consequence appears to be in grip of the handicapper. As a prominent/front-runner he’ll be really intriguing if his mark comes to 70 or lower, perhaps a slightly easier race and a switch to a track with a turn.

He’s ran five times to speed ratings matching- or bettering his current mark. In aforementioned circumstances he will be well handicapped, given he looks as good as ever.

Race Replay

Sir Sedric
27/10/22 – 1.40 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace setter, always travelling prominent. Started good looking move from over 3 furlongs out and travelled strongly into the home straight, before fading quickly.

Was back from a two months break. Ran seriously well the last two times prior, ran to to 58 speed rating three back, in line with other strong performances and speed ratings achieved within the last twelve months.

Should drop below a mark of 58 soon, really intriguing over 7 furlongs then.

Race Replay

Delegate This Lord
27/10/22 – 6.00 Chelmsford:

Quickly out of the gates, pulled back to midfield soon after and seriously keen, especially around the turn. Looked quite awkward and a rough ride in home straight, seemingly hanging, but still able to finish pretty easily fourth without ever asked a real question.

Showed a bit of form on turf during the summer. Now drops down to intriguing handicap marks. Should be a massive runner down to 5 furlongs. Best form all below 6 furlongs.

All-Weather form looks horrible, but six of eight starts went off 16/1 plus. This performance suggests he won’t struggle on the surface, if he can settle, which is more likely over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Guitar
29/10/22 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Wasn’t advantaged by wide draw and as consequence travelled always on outside. Looked to do a bit too much early on, seemingly not finding a position to relax. Appeared threatening turning for home before fading.

Solid run in circumstances. hated Chelmsford kickback lto, but quite promising on comeback run before.

Won well over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton in January, ran to 49 speed rating. Strong follow-up performance when a bit unlucky not to win. I don’t think he truly stays a mile. 7 furlongs possibly ideal. Looks a big lad. Wouldn’t want to back him off a break. Will come down to interesting mark soon.

Race Replay

Thrave
29/10/22 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Obviously the handbrake was on. Restrained at the back of the field, pulling for his head, this natural front-runner wasn’t in it to win it. He caught the eye earlier this season on turf, running a number of strong races.

His relative consistency means he is too high in the mark to win at this stage of his career, clearly in the grip of the handicapper. Connections seem to have realised this reality. One to monitor for drop to 7 furlongs down a few pounds.

Race Replay

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 19th October 2022

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8.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

I feel this is a pretty uncompetitive race for its class and field size. The one that stands out as certainly overpriced in my book is the 3-year-old Michael Bell trained gelding Spring Is Sprung.

He is one who usually goes forward to track the pace and will sit handy, or even can lead, as seen at Royal Ascot. The #1 draw won’t pose an issue for him, given his gate speed, to get that early advantageous prominent position. As we know, Kempton, over this trip, clearly favours those up with the pace.

Spring Is Sprung drops back to 6 furlongs, after an unsuccessful attempt over 7 furlongs at Lingfield when last seen in August. It was s still a credible performance, as he received an early bump out of the gates, and was keen early on, denying himself of the best opportunity to stay the trip. He still ran to topspeed 78 which gives this performance solid merit.

He’s also down to a good mark again, down from a seasonal high of 87, that saw him finish 3rd at Southwell over 6 furlongs in a Class 3 Handicap.

Weeks earlier he won on his seasonal reappearance over the same CD in taking style, off a mark of 81, beating subsequent Listed place Fearless Angel. He looked poised for better that day, but was possibly found out for class against better opposition the next few runs, in truth.

He attempted to make all at Royal Ascot when dropped to the minimum trip. He ran well enough finishing 13th of 27 starters; a subsequent 3rd place finish of three, only a lengths beaten, though, at Newmarket, and then his first really disappointing effort this year, when the application of a visor backfired.

A return to the All-Weather, 6 furlongs and down to 82 OR after a small break looks a perfect scenario. He’s still unexposed on the sand, only 1lb higher than his impressive Southwell win, achieved solid speed ratings before, and could be hard to beat if he can run to that sort of level this evening.

10pts win – Spring Is Sprung @ 7/1