Tag Archives: Kempton

Betting

Friday Selections: January, 26th 2018

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.30 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Contemplating over this race for the whole night, my horse has a less than ideal draw, 100 day+ lay-off and a yard in poor form against in a highly competitive race.

But on the other side there are too many positives to not get involved. Talking about De Vegas Kid, the only colt in the field.

This horse is still a maiden and certainly had plenty of opportunities. He was a bit unlucky not to get off the mark in a handful of races last season, though. That shows he needs things to fall right, however, he ran excellent at Newcastle in March over 7f off 6lb higher than his current handicap rating.

He followed up in spring with two more fine performances on the All-Weather, before becoming frustrating, unable to take advantage of a slipping mark, on turf. He was desperately unlucky not get his head in front at Brighton in August and September.

De Vegas Kid has been off since then, makes a reappearance now dropping down to 6f for the very first time. An interesting move. I feel Lingfield as a track could suit him quite well, so may the trip. Certainly on pedigree it is not unlikely to see him improve a little bit. Sire and dam’s sire have excellent records on the British All-Weather over this distance with their offspring.

He has proven last season to be well capable of running to his current 52 rating, possibly slightly above that. If race fit, and if the trip can eke out a little bit of extra, then he must go very close in this race.

Selection:
10pts win – De Vegas Kid @ 11/1 PP

……

8.45 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Probably a race between Envisaging, Blazed and Daschas. Daschas was tremendously backed the other day when dropping down to the minimum trip at Newcastle – he didn’t quite get there and while the additional furlong works in his favour, I think he showed to be in the grip of the handicapper having little to nothing in hand.

Envisaging is consistent and has form in the book that gives him a prime chance to run close once more. His overall strike rate leaves him vulnerable to an improver, though. This one should be Blazed.

Still relatively low mileage, he’s clearly a quirky character who makes a habit of missing the break. That is an issue that cost him a couple of races likely I firmly believe. It might be an issue here again.

However he remains open to a bit of improvement trying 6f again. He finished well last month under an easy hands and heels ride, clearly with another day in mind I felt.

He steps up in class and has to prove that he fully stays the trip. The pedigree gives plenty of hope. Kempton might suit him better as a track. A galloping course with a longer home straight gives him a better chance to run the field down.

Roger Charlton and Kieren Shoemark team up – a very profitable combination particularly in All-Weather Handicaps.

Selection: 
10pts win – Blazed @ 4/1 – Bet365

Betting

Tuesday Selections: January, 16th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

4.35 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

I am not a fan of backing mares during the winter months against the boys, however Gorgeous has caught my eye on her comeback run after a near year long layoff at Wolverhampton over 5f back in November as a 66/1 longshot.

She got badly hampered at the start and as a consequence wasn’t in a good position and too far off the pace when it mattered. Nonetheless, she finished in tremendous style, producing a turn of foot from the back of the field picking one after another up, to finish 2nd eventually.

She couldn’t quit back it up three weeks later – possibly the “bounce factor”? Although again she did not have the smoothest of experiences getting out of the starting gates and she didn’t help her cause when hanging badly to the left in the closing stages.

Regardless, both forms look rock solid and have bee franked. She drops a pound down to 55, which looks a very dangerous mark. She moves up to 6f which should very much suit on pedigree as a full-sister to a multiple Kempton course & distance winner.

Gorgeous has a wide draw to overcome which isn’t ideal. However this is a very winnable race in my eyes and ideal chance for her to get back to the winning ways.

Selection:
10pts win – Gorgeous @ 12/1 Bet365

Global Racing

Saturday Reflections

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Dundalk All-Weather

First things first: Toriano (5/1) got the job done at Lingfield! Got his head in front when it mattered. The third winner of the still quite fresh year.

Late money arrived for American Patrol at Kempton in the evening. From an impossible position he was never any serious questions asked, though, and to my eyes it looked as if PJ McDonald saved him for another day. Still, American Patrol made eye-catching headway in the closing stages. His day will come soon.

The End of the Southwell Dream?

Media reported that Southwell racecourse is likely to change its racing surface to Tapeta next year. The installation of floodlights is also in discussion.

Only a proposal at this point in time, so the official statement. However, the Twitter machine suggested otherwise. The end for the Fibresand surface is more a given than a mere possibility.

There’ll be many who won’t mind. Some who’ll be more than happy to see it go. A few are probably going to miss it.  I’ll be sad. Southwell would becomee “just another one”. Not that there’s anything wrong with Tapeta, or Polytrack for that matter.

Wolverhampton, Newastle, Lingfield, Kempton, Chelmsford – all fine tracks. I love All-Weather racing no matter what. Nonetheless, Southwell is unique. Unique because of the Fibresand. A different test for horses, a different way races are run. It suits some horses. Other don’t act here at all. That’s the fun!

As a betting medium I love it. As a racing fan I applaud it. For being different. A stand-out in the British racing scene. Here’s hoping Southwell will make the right decision: keep the Fibresand and keep the uniqueness of the racecourse alive.

Legal Eagle Does it Again!

For a third consecutive time South Africa’s highest rated horse landed the Group 1 Queen’s Plate over a mile at Kenilworth racecourse. A stunning success, perfectly timed by Anton Marcus in the saddle.

For a moment or two it looked like pace setter Captain America might have got away with it. However, from 2f out Legal Eagle kicked into top gear and cut back the lead rapidly. No problems in the end.

He reminds me a bit of former South African superstar – Variety Club. An impressive Plate winner himself, who went to win at Meydan and Hong Kong. In fact, comparisons aren’t to far off, given Legal Eagle could seek his own international glory in November this year, as thanks to the Queen’s Plate success, he’s automatically earned the right to contest the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Teenage Triumph in the Welsh National

Horse racing simply delivered the best stories. More often than not. There is young jockey James Bowen, a year ago still riding the ponies, 16 year of age, still claiming five pounds, sitting on 13 year old Raz De Maree.

That in itself is kinda odd But then these two go on the romp home in the Grade 3 Welsh National! That success didn’t look all that likely when the field turned for home with four fences to jump. Raz De Maree had lost contention to the front group, Bowen tried his best to keep the 16/1 longshot going.

The veteran responded. Between third and second last, he seemingly found another gear and with two out suddenly jumped to the lead, which he never gave away again.

A heroic effort, from both, horse and jockey. And certainly a day young James Bowen won’t forget too quickly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE_tflU8jDs

Betting

Saturday Selections: January, 6th 2018

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

It hurts if your 40/1 shot gets beaten on the line. Never get too high, never too low… if it would be so easy?! For a moment or to inside the final furlong it looked like Monte Cinq looked would have to enough in the tank to hold on and win. He didn’t. A neck beaten. Autsch.

It didn’t help that Snaffled also finished 2nd and Going Native faltering in the closing stages after a way too aggressive front-running ride.

……

1.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

A prime chance for Toriano to find back to winning ways, if he can build on his fine 4th in a hot class 4 contest at this venue last month.

He made too much over a trip that stretches him in the early parts of the race, but ran well enough in a race that works out really well. A clear return to form in my book.

He drops in trip and gets further help from the handicapper, now back over a CD he’s won before as a juvenile and below his last winning mark.

Selection:
10pts win – Toriano @ 5/1 Bet365

…..

6.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Trainer Neil Mulholland doesn’t send them over for fun to Kempton in these low grade handicaps, and you got to take them very seriously, indeed.

His inmate American Patrol comes here on the back of a string of poor runs, however there might be fair reasons for it. He didn’t act at Southwell, quite clearly, and neither did softish conditions suit on his sole turf start in 2017.

That says, the Rio De La Plata son looked to have a good deal more to offer than his rating off 55 when he won a Wolverhampton 7f Handicap back in January last year.

He’s down to the very same mark now, only the trip a furlong longer – on pedigree very much possible, and I think he deserves another chance as, for mentioned reasons, runs over a mile before, could be discounted.

Selection:
10pts win – American Patrol @ 14/1 Bet365

 

Betting, Uncategorized

Tuesday Selections – 6th November 2017

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1.10 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Novices Stakes, 5f

After three highly promising runs, with the debut a clear stand-out, Miltia is clearly the one to beat. 5f on tapeta looks ideal with a perfect draw in a race that appears to be very much winnable.

Militia’s sire Equiano has a superb record with juveniles over CD therefore the switch to the All-Weather looks more like a positive than a negative.

Selection:
10pts win – Militia @ 9/4 Bet365

…….

4.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

This looks a race where one of the younger, lightly raced three year olds really should land a blow. Mio Ragazzo looks the pick of the lot, if this doesn’t come too soon and he can overcome a wide draw.

However I rather go with experience in this race. From the bottom end of the weights, nine year old Pick A Little looks primed for a big run. He comes here off a nice win at Brighton, yet can race off 2lb lower on the All-Weather, than he did on turf the last time.

Pick A Little is equally as good a horse on the sand as on grass, in fact his win record on the All-Weather is slightly better.

A mile on AW has never led to success, though. However he gets it well enough as seen at Brighton in desperate conditions three weeks ago.

It looks significant that Richard Kingscote takes the ride. He’s sat three times on Pick A Little and steered the gelding to success on each occasion.

Drawn in eight should still be okay and he should have not too many problems settling in a nice position not too far off the pace.

Selection:
10pts win – Pick A Little @ 17/2 VC

Betting

Wednesday Selections – 16/08/2017

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Two on the bounce – Incentive took the 2.15 at Ffos Las in excellent style today (advised 12/1, R4 applies). The filly took – as hoped – full advantage of a career lowest mark with conditions to suit.

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3.20 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Kryptos has improved with each start since switching yards, running really well on debut for John Barry returning from a long break at Newmarket. On the day beaten in third only by individuals rated 91 and 100 now.

Race fit he went to Chester and finished from a near impossible position super strongly to win on handicap debut. Form and ratings suggest he could easily follow up off his revised mark. Conditions pose no trouble, only the draw is a slight concern.

Selection:
10pts win – Kryptos @ 6/1 Bet365

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5.15 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Rarely you see horses winning four on the bounce, even less so completing a five-timer! Regal Mirage, though, has excellent credentials to achieve the feast.

Massively improved with experience and going handicapping, the three year old has matched or exceeded his handicap mark both for time speed- and RP rating the last two times, suggesting he continues to improve and may have still more to offer.

Conditions and trip cause no trouble and his prominent and hard hitting racing style should be perfect for a track like Beverley. Only one other 3yo in the field – I believe there is one more win in this lad.

Selection: 
10pts win – Regal Mirage @ 5/2 Bet365

…..

8.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The Fanshawe yard usually goes really well in these type of races during the summer and has a fantastic chance with handicap debutante Scoones to score.

The 3yo had three obligatory maiden runs without setting the world alight however has been gelded after the first two runs and subsequently travelled like the winner coming off a break at Chelmsford lto just to fade away late without being ridden too hard.

An opening mark of 65 looks potentially lenient given he matched this in terms of RPR in his last run and his sire has a super record on the All-Weather plus the mare is prolific in producing successful offspring.

Selection:
10pts win – Scoones @ 5/1 Skybet

……

8.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

SP’s in the three maiden runs Wolfcatcherjack had this year are a clear indicator his future would be going handicapping. This moment has arrived and at the same time he steps up dramatically in trip for a trainer who is the master of exploiting the handicapping system.

Wolfcatcherjack is pretty well bred, hailing from a fine family and it is rather likely that he will easily leave his maiden form behind quickly. His opening mark looks stiff enough for what he has achieved so far but taking everything into calculation it may well be a gift.

Selection:
10pts win – Wolfcatcherjack @ 11/4 Paddy Power

Betting Talk

Wednesday Selections

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three All-Weather meetings on a Wednesday – flat racing at its finest! Ah, well, not quite, I guess. But soon the proper racing on the green grass is back in all its richness. Until then we have to deal with what we got and that is low-class sand racing.

It’s still a surprisingly compelling day of racing with some interesting fields across the board at Southwell, Lingfield and Kempton. And while I try to stay away from these type of races as much as I can these days, I couldn’t help myself but find three horses to back:

2.30 Southwell

Comprise looks a fair favourite and is likely hard to beat if anywhere near full race fitness which looks assured with Spencer coming to Southwell for this single ride. But there is at least a small question mark on that front as well as whether the gelding has wintered well.

Hungarian Rhapsody will enjoy the step up in trip after running well the last too times when fancied in the betting. But newcomer Bowed Not Broken looks value at 11/2 in a race where only these three horses appear to be in with a realistic chance.

The daughter of classy sprinter Casper Netscher has the assistance of the excellent Martin Harley in the saddle, while the Burke yard goes strongly recently and did well in the past in these type of races here. It also looks significant that a hood is fitted for the first time.

Selection: 
10pts win – Bowed Not Broken @ 11/2 Sky

……

3.50 Lingfield

Muthraab Aldaar has been treated leniently by the handicapper despite a massively eye-catching return after a seasonal break last month at Kempton. He broke very badly that day, was still last with two furlongs to go but made incredible headway marching through the whole field to finish what looked moments before an unlikely runner-up.

He should come on for the run and given he is down to a career lowest rating after having been put up way too high as a three year old after a maiden success he’s here a huge chance in my book.

The trip is a slight worry because he stays a good deal further and Lingfield is a speedy track, but with so many things on the plus side he looks a good thing at tasty odds.

Selection:
10 pts win – Muthraab Aldaar @ 5/1 PP

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6.55 Kempton

Those with race experience seem vulnerable so chance is taken with well bred newcomer Altyn Alqa. The filly favours well in the weights and has a fine draw to start off her career in a very winnable race.

The Cox yard didn’t have many runners lately but those send out ran extremely well. Furthermore Clieve Cox did well in these Kempton maidens and can get them ready for their debut Luke Morris in the saddle rides this track and trip quite well too.

Selection:
10pts win – Altyn Alqa @ 9/2 Bet365

Betting Talk

Monday Fancies – Kempton Park

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3.00 Kempton: Star Of The Stage @ 6/1 Bet365 – 10pts win

I think this horse has not seen to best effect yet since moving to his new yard and was minded on the last two occasions. Now a pound below his last winning mark when romping home over a mile at Lingfield last season he’s of interest. Cheek-pieces are back on – these were off the last three times.

A field that doesn’t appear to have to much pace may suit this lad allot given he has a fine draw and is usually at his best when ridden aggressively.

With Kirby in the saddle I expect a strong front-running ride tomorrow – he might be hard to peg back once let lose in front given he has stamina for further.

…….

5.00 Kempton: Light Of Air @ 7/1 Coral – 10pts win

Open race with a bit of pace in it. Bottom weight Light of Air with first time blinkers (on the flat) is an interesting contender, slightly overpriced. He’s yet to get off the mark but has been placed on his two starts on the All-Weather lately, both times he finished with plenty of credit.

He looked to win at Kempton when he came with a big run but lacked a bit of focus in the closing stages, whereas he looked again a bit awkward at Lingfield lto in the closing stages.

A mark of 70, blinkers and hopefully a decent pace should help massively and he has a prime chance in my book.

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham: The Future Starts Here

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The Festival it was – a crazy week flew by in a blink of an eye. A proper review of all the Cheltenham action is due, though at another time. Nonetheless a big shout out to Sizing John and everyone connected with the new king of jump racing!

What a gutsy performance, he stayed every inch of the Gold Cup trip. A sensational, patient, cool ride by Robbie Power. A horse that was campaigned over two miles where he couldn’t get past the almighty Douvan, but upped in trip and his class could finally shine to its full extend!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClR_DFfh2xo
Horse racing is the game that keeps giving. It never stops. Only one week then it’s Dubai World Cup day, one week after the flat season starts…. it comes thick and fast. Cheltenham is over and one might think the world ends. But no – the future starts here! Isn’t that beautiful?

So let’s keep the momentum rolling and have a look what racing has to offer on this Saturday. Two races in particular are of interest to me.

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2.40 Kempton: Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle

An ultra competitive race with nearly half of the 2o runners in with a fair shout. However I do like quite a lot Dan Skelton’s Bandsman off a lowly mark on his handicap debut.

The six year old took his time to get off the mark, but was massively impressive once he did it. He followed up with another success at Market Rasen, when he fought gamely to be on top when it mattered most.

This form looks strong through the runner-up who since then went on to win a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. An opening mark of 129 may well underestimate Bandsman’s true class, particularly with ground sure to suit and potential improvement to come for the step up in trip.

He’s not a slick jumper yet, so has certainly to do be better in that department against classier opposition here. But if he learned and if he stays the trip then he’s a good chance to be in the shake-up I feel.

Selection:
5pts win – Bandsman @ 9/1 Bet365

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3.20 Limerick: Handicap Hurdle (80-109)

Top weight Hareth looked worth for more than his narrow success in a Handicap Hurdle here at Limerick under a stylish Carberry ride back in April. Off the track for nearly three years subsequently, he made a pleasing comeback at Naas last month when a fair third.

Back at Limerick, he’s probably a good deal better than his current rating and can make that count against very beatable opposition. Slight concern over the soft ground and the 2m trip, given he won on fast ground over further in the past, but class can see him through.

Selection:
10pts win – Hareth @ 7/2 Matchbook

Racing Talk

Wednesday’s Racing Talk

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This morning we mourn the passing of Tom O’Ryan – the ‘voice of the north’ – he sadly lost the battle with lung cancer. His warm yet knowledgeable voice will be dearly missed by anyone in love with the sport of horse racing……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvYdeIucrp4

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Wednesday Selections:

A winner again yesterday! Aflame proved to be one or two classes above her rivals at Yarmouth. She did it easily and given her pedigree there might still be more to come. Three runners today: does the positive trend continue?

1.50 Catterick: Kyllang Rock @ 5/2 WH
4.20 Catterick: Julia Dream @ 4/1 Coral (Edit: N/R)
6.40 Kempton: North Creek @ 9/2 Sky

Photo: Racing UK