Tag Archives: Ivawood

Royal Ascot

Preview: Royal Ascot – Wednesday Selections

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Bossy Guest

The first day of Royal Ascot hasn’t been easy. It started horrible with a dismal performance by Able Friend. And it all went downhill from there. Okay, Air Force Blue did well, but didn’t win, so what does it matter? Nothing. Thankfully Washington Dc saved the day, although it’s been not good for my heart. But what could have been a disastrous day, ended only with a minimal loss in the end.

So let’s see, what’s on the tab tomorrow – The Prince Of Wales’s Stakes as the highlight of the day obviously. I really look forward to this. You can find a comprehensive preview for the race in this article. The best of the rest comes here now.

Jersey Stakes (Group 3)

I’m a big fan of Ivawood. You won’t see many better looking horses. He drops in class and has a prime chance. But 7/4 is a shocking price, given the fact that he has to give weight away to some fine rivals. This is quite an open looking race but for me Bossy Guest is underestimated.

He shares form with Ivawood through the 2000 Guineas. Ivawood finished 3rd, Bossy Guest 4th, half a lengths between the two. Bossy Guest meets Ivawood on five pounds better terms here, while he has only 2lb to find on the ratings – albeit over shorter 7 furlongs this time.

Bossy Guest was a bit unlucky in the Guineas. He travelled very well but didn’t find a gap on his side over 2f out so moved to the center which cost him momentum and some lengths. He was hampered subsequently which must have lost him further momentum, yet he finished well once in the clear.

I suspect he is a better horse over 7f. He stays a mile alright, but was also speedy enough to win a big sales race over 6f earlier this year. His late acceleration in that particular race was very impressive.

Dangers could be lightly raced Hathal, although he has to improve obviously. The penny seemed to drop for Sir Isaac Newton recently, but the trip is a bit of a question mark as he is actually bred for the Derby trip. Toscanini is a slightly frustrating sort but this test may suit. I like Tupi from the bigger prices to do well.

Bossy Guest @ 9/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)

All about Integral here? Yes it is! The filly can match the boys as she proved in the Lockinge when she ran out a strong fourth place finish. She is a multiple Group 1 winner over the mile, she acts on any kind of ground and she won this very same race last year in commanding fashion. Alright, let’s put the mortgage on Integral, shall we?

Ah no, better not! There is a horse I fancy to take her on with for a much bigger price: Bragging. She is a 10/1 chance and I feel she is better than that. Bragging hasn’t been out of the money in all her career starts, except a recent below par performance in the Middleton Stakes at York – a strange race, which came over 10.5f; won by the front-runner. I’m happy to forgive her and if you can do so too you’ll see a progressive & lightly raced filly.

She impressed at Newmarket where she won a Group 3 over 9f on her seasonal reappearance. They went quite a clip and the splits were good. Bragging showed guts to get up in the end and this run promised allot. I don’t think the drop to a mile is causing her any trouble. She has enough pace.

Of course on the ratings she has a bit to find with the hot favourite and it might well turn out that Integral is too good. But Bragging deserves her chance. Conditions will be just about right for her and in this field she has a stronger chance to win than the odds suggest at this point.

Bragging @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)

This is ultra competitive. Plenty of good form on offer and I like more than a handful of horses. But here’s where I need to stick to my values of trying to exploit “bookie errors”. The 25/1 for Mondialiste is obviously a monstrous price.

He was a smart horse in France before changing yards. On his UK debut he just fell short in the Lincoln by a neck, beaten by Gabrial, who subsequently franked the form. Mondialiste travelled really well that day but may committed a bit too early and just got tired in the end which helped the late charge of Gabrial.

He went on to finish a fine runner-up in the Sefton Stakes behind French Navy, which is very strong form, given that the third, Arod, was subsequently an impressive 3rd in the Lockinge Stakes and won a Group 3 on Derby day in brilliant style.

Mondialiste went on to finish third in a Listed race at Ascot over 1m. Probably a slightly disappointing effort, as he was beaten by a good five lengths. However it was his third tough effort within four weeks after his seasonal debut. It may have been just a bit too much. He has been off for the last two month and now well rested and fresh a big run is expected of what looks a fair mark.

Mondialiste @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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>>> Comprehensive Preview for Prince Of Wales’s Stakes – Click Here

Ireland

Curragh Preview – Irish 2000 Guineas Day

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Gleneagles

It’s a beautiful morning here in Dublin – pleasantly warm, the sun is out, the air smells like summer… finally!

Ideal conditions for racing at the Curragh, where the ground is drying out and that will make for fair and exciting racing. I’ve continued to work myself through the card this morning – so let’s have a look at the races in a bit more detail!

A comprehensive preview of the 2.15 Listed Marble Hill Stakes can be found here. 

1.40 Fillies Maiden, 6f, 2yo

She is a full-sister to multiple Group 1 winning mare Misty For Me and has THE name: Ballydoyle is expected to get off the mark in the opening race of Irish Guineas weekend. She may face the stiffest competition from stable mate Dewdrop who cost a bit of money as a yearling and is equally well bred. Not race to have a bet in for me, but one to watch with interest.

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2.45 Greenland Stakes (Group 2)

A competitive sprint race which has attracted some big names. Sole Power makes a rare appearance on home soil but this seems more like a prep run for Royal Ascot. Six furlongs at the Curragh is not an ideal scenario for him and consequently he has neither ever won here nor over this trip elsewhere.

Globetrotter Gordon Lord Byron warrants plenty of respect. Seemingly healthy again after injuring himself when last seen in March in Hong Kong, he is the one to beat with trip and ground sure to suit. He has bigger targets on the agenda later the year as well though, so I’m wondering if he’ll be fully wound up for today?

Astaire has been a revelation this year. Last season he couldn’t quite follow on from a strong two year old campaign, but he clearly raised his game this year: An excellent Group 3 success over six furlongs at Newmarket last month followed up with a good performance in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes. But I suspect he may need idealy quick ground to be able to see out the trip and the uphill finish at the Curragh won’t be in his favour either.

Dermot Weld’s Mustajeeb is well fancied today. He’s expected to be ready for his seasonal reappearance. It’s a drop in trip for him, though, as he mostly raced over 7f up to 1m last year, when he finished 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas behind Kingman. He didn’t quite fulfil his potential subsequently and I’m not sure what to expect of him today.

The drying ground clearly works against Maarek today. Jamesie, albeit a course and distance winner over an unlucky Gordon Lord Byron last year, is very much up against as well. An Saighdiur shouldn’t be anywhere good enough.

However I feel Majestic Queen could be the right piece to solve this puzzle. This filly seems to be improving with age. She won a very competitive Group 3 a Lingfield a fortnight ago and the drop to 6f won’t be an issue. She needed her first run this year but showed progressive form last season when winning a Group 3 sprint at Leopardstown and subsequently finished an unlucky but not far beaten 4th behind Jamesie and Gordon Lord Byron.

The five year old has to raise her game today but may well progress from her recent strong Lingfield performance with track, trip and ground to suit perfectly. At double figure odds she is my selection against the field.

Majestic Queen @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.20: Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1)

It’s all about Gleneagles – can he complete the Newmarket/Curragh double today? The most likely answer is: Yes. He is five to two on and it is hard to look past him, indeed. His commanding performance at Newmarket proved not only that he trained on, but also that he gets a strongly run mile!

That says he is such a short price that I have to take him on – for a reason: He already looked very mature and strong as a juvenile. It is not impossible that others may improve past him with time moving on this year. He also had the run of the race at Newmarket, gaps opened when they needed to open and he was positioned where you would have wanted him to be.

The same couldn’t be said about Ivawood – who is expected to be the biggest danger to Gleneagles today. He finished a very good third at Newmarket, but had to deal with some difficulties as a outlined in my Guineas Review in more detail.

In short: He answered questions marks about his ability to stay the trip but didn’t have the benefit of travelling in the favoured stand side group that day. Only two horses from single figure stalls finished in the top eight eventually – he was the best of them. Ivawood also showed guts when he fought for his gap over 2f out.

This big, strong, well muscled individual made a big impression on my while I had my doubts beforehand. He’s clearly a very talented horse and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pushing Gleneagles to the limits today. Wheather that is enough to win… well, we’ll see and find out.

Last seasons top rated 2 year old Belardo is fighting for redemption today after an utterly disappointing display in the Greenham Stakes. Has he trained on? This question will be answered today once for all.

I really like Ger Lyons Endless Drama. He was one of my Horss To Follow this season. But I’m surprised to see connections still going along with races and trips seemingly beyond him. In my eyes he’s a sprinter and should be dropped in trip accordingly. I reckon he can be a force over six furlongs.

The rest of the pack: Hard to distinguish them. There might be one or another turning up today who runs the race of his life. Some decent place money is looming. But who is going to be the one? No idea. I would like to see Paco Boy son Lexington Times to show some further progress.

Betting wise, I go with Ivawood. At 6/1 he is worth a punt. If things go normal, he finishes a fair second. But if he can improve a bit from his Newmarket effort, then we’re in for a real fight. He’s overpriced in my book.

Ivawood @ 6/1 Coral @ 5pts win

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3.55 Lanwades Stud Stakes (Fillies Group 2)

Dermot Weld’s Brooch is the hot favourite. She is expected to improve from last season where she was unbeaten in three starts, culminating in a strong Group 3 success. However she seemed to need every inch of the 9.5f at Gowran Park and I’m not sure if the drop to a mile is what she really wants. She looks vulnerable, considering her very short price-tag.

Value for me has Lady Dutch. She seems to get better with age and was impressive in her first two UK starts on the Kempton All-Weather. She looked potentially smart when landing a Listed event there in April, producing an impressive change of gear. She was a bit disappointing at Newmarket subsequently, but seemed not t handle the undulations of the course and the wide, galloping Curragh may be a better fit for her.

Lady Dutch @ 8/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Guineas Weekend Review

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The flat season is well and truly alive! Not only that, but time moves quickly and we now have also the first Classic of the new season behind us! So let’s quickly recap on what happened over the last weekend….

Gleneagles’s a proper miler…..

Isn’t he? You couldn’t say anything else after an impressive display over the Rowley Mile on Saturday. Yes, he had pretty much everything going for himself. Perfect draw, ground to suit and gaps opened when you would have wanted them to open for him.

Says he got an inch perfect ride from Ryan Moore and had the class to take advantage of the gaps when it was most needed. He romped home, stayed strongly the new trip and the 2¼ lengths winning margin is a fair reflection of how much better he is than the rest. For the moment at least.

Gleneagles


No excuses for…..

Estidhkaar! Yes, it probably was an advantage to be in the stand side group, but no, that isn’t an excuse for his flat performance. Hanagan hard at work from over three furlongs out – Estidhkaar was simply not good enough.

My assumption proved right that the Greenham result was a rather freakish one, and I find it amusing that connections now try to blame the quick Newmarket ground on his poor Guineas performance, when he performed so well in blistering quick conditions at Newbury before.


Ivawood and The Brave One….

Ivawood - 2000 Guineas

There were plenty of horses a bit unlucky of not getting the best of runs in the 2.000 Guineas. But two individuals do stand out for me in terms of proving a point:

Ivawood clearly stayed the trip and his third place is a very strong result given the fact that he didn’t have the benefit of travelling in the favoured stand side group. Only two horses from single figure stalls finished in the top eight eventually – he was the best of them.

Ivawood was gutsy and showed loads of talent, while not having quite a smooth ride as he had to angle out and fight for his gap. The Irish 2.000 Guineas is next on the agenda for him where he’s going to take on Gleneagles again. He may be able to finish closer then.

Home Of The Brave is an unlikely eye-catcher but in fact he was a strong one for me. He set a true pace for the stand side group and was there till the final furlong marker but didn’t quite see out the trip in the end.

He still finished a good sixth for all of that and he may can win a less demanding pattern race over a mile with an easy lead, or probably preferably, would be dropped back to 7f. He clearly confirmed that his fine victory in the Free Handicap (Listed) was no fluke.


Telescope finds a way to get beaten… again!

Telescope

He was the short priced favourite in a four runner affair and looked certain to win the Jockey Club Stakes. But he got beaten – once again. Probably Ryan Moore let him loose a bit too early, yet he should have been good enough to fend off Second Step.

In his last seven starts Telescope was either short favourite or joint favourite. He won only one of these and becomes an expensive commodity to follow. Bookies on the other hand are likely to erect a statue for him.


Twilight Son is Pattern Class….

DSC_0362

It was only a Handicap, but it’s also been only his third career start. Twilight Express was impressive to win the 6f sprint for three year old’s. Particularly in the way he did it.

This race resulted in the fastest finish on the card and Twilight Son ran just 12.18s for the concluding uphill furlong.  There is clearly much more to come from this Kyllachy son.


Legatissimo a legitimate Oaks favourite!

David Wachman’s filly stormed home to land the 1.000 Guineas in some style. Though this may be a slightly disappointing result for the fillies’ mile division – as she is clearly not a miler but very much a middle-distance horse.

Many of the better fancied fillies didn’t handle ground or trip or track or all of that combined. But you can’t make excuses for everything and personally I’m slightly disappointed with the race. Lucida is potentially the one to take out of it, though. She got hampered at the start and ran out a nice second place.

Legatissimo on the other hand came into this race on the back of a Listed success over 9.5 furlongs. So to see her romping home in the way she did, dropping back to a mile, was impressive and says allot about her individual class, but also about the lack of class of most of her rivals in the field.

Anyway, she is obviously a very legitimate Oaks favourite now. On pedigree she is entitled to stay thus far, no problem. Out of a Montjeu mare, you would hope that there is more to come once she steps up in trip again.


False Rail is a positive move….

Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

Admittedly, the newly introduced false rail didn’t prevent the field from splitting into two groups in the 2.000 Guineas, nonetheless it is a positive move and I would hope this experiment will continue. More tracks should follow suit.

Why? Because it helps to prevent horses from finding themselves short of room on the inside rail when coming from off the pace. It works at Dundalk rather well for example, where this was a huge problem for many years before the introduction of a false rail.

It also works well in other racing jurisdictions. I In this context I always like to point to South Africa where false rails are a common theme at every track. It makes for fair and exciting racing more often than not. There is no reason why it shouldn’t be in place over here as well.


Tiggy Wiggy….

Impressed me in the 1000 Guineas. She performed much better than I would have thought. Positive tactics and fast ground helped her to get home rather well over a trip that stretches her stamina to a maximum.

She’ll be reverted back to sprinting now and will be a force in that particular division this season I’d reckon.


Personal Experience….

National Stud

It’s been the second year running that I went over to Newmarket to witness the 2.000 Guineas. Becomes a bit of a tradition now?! I really like the Rowley Mile. It’s a nice track, good facilities, good viewing (if binoculars on hand) and despite a huge crowd on Saturday, it never felt uncomfortable at all. Perfect!

Took in this time also some proper sightseeing as I already arrived on Friday. Walking up the legendary Warren Hill was quite an experience. Knew this place only from the comfort of my couch and TV. It’s really steep, isn’t it?!

Next stop was the National Stud. Said hello to Toronado and Dick Turpin and rounded up the day with a beautiful walk along the July Course and the Rowley Mile in splendid sunshine. Saturday followed the Guineas – it’s been fantastic I have to say.

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All Photos Credit: Florian Christoph

United Kingdom

Preview – Greenham Stakes

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Newbury Grand stand

No joy today – Jack Steel travelled well for a long time but managed only to finish 3rd in the end. He faded badly after jumping the last. He was quite a drifter in the betting (SP 10/1) before the off as well. I suspect he may need bit further and then it also depends bit on what the handicapper does next. But he’s clearly capable of winning a race. The other two selections didn’t go close at all!

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2.50 Newbury: Greenham Stakes (Group 3)

This is a spectacular renewal of the Greenham Stakes! So many promising individuals unified in this one race – it’s simply got the be spectacular. Does that mean there should be a 6/4 favourite? Certainly not! There’s certainly plenty to like about Ivawood, but the price is madness in my mind.

Ivawood was a top class sprinter as a juvenile, a winner of two Group 2’s over six furlongs and an excellent runner-up in the Middle Park Stakes when probably unsuited by the soft ground. With quick conditions to suit here and the step up to 7f possible to work on pedigree, he has a big chance to go really close. But so can a couple of others here too. And as long as he hasn’t tried the trip, you can’t be sure if he can stay and even improve for it.

Personally I’m not the biggest fan of Estidhkaar. He is fine horse and had a good last season, but I expect him to fall short against some really good rivals. There is Belardo for example, the champion two-year old. He won the Dewhurst, though has to prove his class on much quicker ground now. Flaming Spear was a very impressive maiden winner, there is likely more to come from this lightly raced Lope De Vega son.

Aiden O’Brien throws in the Phoenix Stakes winner Dick Whittington. This form has been franked earlier this week by Craven Stakes winner Kool Kompany, who was half a lengths beaten in second by Dick Whittington at the Curragh last August. More is likely to come from this Rip Van Winkle colt, though he failed to get the 7f trip at his only try last year. Toocoolforschool and Muhaarar are both Group 2 winners but looked more home over sprint trips than over seven furlongs when tried last season.

The horse I do really fancy to have a big season is Fanaan. He is part of my Horses To Follow List and I have to admit I’m somewhat baffled by the huge price available. I expected him to be much shorter. Why? Because he was ultra impressive in two starts last year. On his debut he got easily off the mark under hands and heels, but even better was his performance in a Conditions Stakes race at Newmarket. Only three runners that day, but the runner-up is a fair individual in his own right as he’s 104 rated, as well as won subsequently – but was easily beaten by a devastating turn of foot from Fanaan.

The interesting part is that Fanaan, who is obviously very well bred, did all his racing with at least a bit of cut in the ground. However on pedigree he should actually be better on a sound surface. That says he’ll appreciate the quick ground at Newbury and the trip won’t be an issue at all. I believe his chances are underestimated here and he can have a big season.

Fanaan @ 11/1 William Hill – 5pts win