Tag Archives: eyecatcher

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 18th April 2023

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2.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Trappy contest given the unexposed form of half the field. I do like the exposed form of The Toff, though. He caught the eye the last time, and to a lesser degree also the time before.

At Southwell over a mile he simply didn’t see out the trip after overcoming a wide draw to challenge strongly from three furlongs out.

Last time out at Lingfield, dropped to 7 furlongs, was an interesting race that finished in a sprint finish. Even though he was able to track the pace, he didn’t receive the most economical ride and had to concede first run to the leader. He finished a strong second and the fastest horse in the last three furlongs.

He clearly is in prime form and ready to win. Still a maiden, though, not without promise shown multiple times, he was gelded in October and that may have contributed, in addition to a drop in his handicap mark, to those fine runs lately.

Seven furlongs with a solid pace should be an ideal scenario and is the likely one to be encountered in this race with plenty of pace excpected. This is an easier contest than last month – on paper, if there wouldn’t be all that unexposed form in this field – although, those handicap debutants enjoy only a fair opening mark at best.

He’s an uncomplicated sort, usually up with the pace, and should be able track whoever wants to burn himself out in the early parts. He’s in in strong form and looks primed for a yard that’s going well enough at the moment.

10pts win – The Toff @ 10/3

……….

8.30 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

The price is skinny enough, given his patchy record, but ultimately it feels like this is the day I have been waiting for to back Papa Cocktail.

He was a huge eyecatcher in a similar contest over this course and distance in February when he finished like a train from well off the pace despite not enjoying the clearest of runs. That forms is seriously strong as well.

A stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle where he moved forward to lead until steadily going backwards from about 2 furlongs out probably stretched his stamina, when last seen. It was also a stronger race.

Even though I believe 7 furlongs is possibly his optimum, perhaps a slightly less stiff track and more restraint ride should see him get the trip really well, I also think 6 furlongs with a good pace to aim at will suit him really well, too.

He should find this here. The #7 draw doesn’t worry me too much because he will be ridden off the pace in any case. I hope fore a no-nonsense ride with a challenge unleashed toward the stands’ side, for a clear run.

A mark off 63 gives him a tremendous chance. He caught the eye multiple times last year on turf as well. There is a reason why he’s fallen to such a low rating now, but he clearly showed a spark the last two times to assume he’ll be the one to beat in this contest.

10pts win – Papa Cocktail @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 15th April 2023

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Grand National day. My preview of the big race can be read here. On the flat racing front things remain quiet this week and also this weekend, to the most part.

But looking at the tracker for next week things are going to get hot. There are no less than 21 eyecatchers scheduled to run only from Monday to Wednesday alone The flat is back!

………..

4.30 Yarmouth: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Not a particularly competitive race. El Royale saw some money this morning, and some of that may well be the “Billy factor” more than anything.

The horses drops down in trip and is unexposed, but strikes me as a weak favourite, nonetheless.

Phoenix Star and Concierge are the obvious interests for me, having caught the eye in their last runs. In saying that, the #8 draw isn’t ideal for Phoenix Star, who’s also one of the more popular horses in the market this morning.

High draws have a poor record over this course and distance. That aside, he strikes me as best over the minimum trip, perhaps with some cut in the ground. He’s yet to win over 6f on turf, hence Concierge is the more interesting horse today.

His record over 6 furlongs isn’t brilliant, either. However, he is a distance winner, even on good to soft in the past, has been able to stretch out to 7 furlongs, and has clearly the speed for the minimum trip (which may be his optimum).

In any case, I was impressed by his comeback run last month at Kempton, where he was a serious eyecatcher:

Concierge travelled at the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

He couldn’t follow-up at Chelmsford, but travelling wide throughout, chasing the pace, was the reason why he dropped out badly in the closing stages.

As a consequence he’s down another couple of pounds, a new career-lowest. He ran to a 64 speed rating at Kempton, though, suggesting there’s enough there to believe he can win.

Whether he is still as good as last season remains to be seen, now that he’s back on turf. Last year he ran well a number of times, including when achieving a 73 speed rating run at Newmarket over 6 furlongs.

He drops down to class 6 today – obviously he’s not the force of old, but this is much easier than anything he’s encountered even in the more recent past.

Even though I’m not totally sold on credentials over 6f on turf, I feel he’s still got too much class for these rivals. He definitely won’t mind the ground, looks to be in fine form, and if on a going day (i.e. allowed to run on merit) he could be hard to beat.

10pts win – Concierge @ 6/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 13th April 2023

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7.30 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Love Destination and Global Tycoon are two intriguing eyecatchers here. Previously flagged Tomas Equinas is also in the race and remains of interest back in handicap company off a 50 OR.

Nonetheless, Global Tycoon is the one I am most interested in. This pretty lightly raced gelding drops down to the 7f trip, which should suit as it will help him to settle and relax a bit better than he did over a mile .

I quite liked his recent comeback run at Southwell over a mile having returned from 274 days off the track, though. He quickly moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though.

He was keen in the first half of the race but then travelled well enough turning for home, before he hung over 1f out, which was also when he finally relinquished the lead for good.

Perhaps he needed the run and that was a reason why dropped out badly in the final 200 yards but I’m neither sold on Global Tycoon truly staying a mile.

He won well at Kempton over 7f on handicap debut last autumn off a mark of 53, doing so quite comfortably, suggesting he was certainly ahead of his mark that day, even though the form didn’t amount to much, in truth.

He remains still lightly raced. This here is going to be only his seventh career run, his fourth handicap start and second time over 7 furlongs.

He’ll makes tons of appeal off his reassessed 56 mark, especially with a solid 5lb claiming apprentice in the saddle.

Cheek-pieces are an interesting addition that may address any tendencies to hang in the closing stages. It’s not quite clear how the pace will unfold here but I reckon Global Tycoon won’t be too far away and can lead, if required.

10pts win – Global Tycoon @ 6/1

Eyecatchers

Eyecatchers #10

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather and turf. Find all previous lists here.

Apache Star
06/03/23 – 5.30 Wolverhampton:

Quickly overcame his wide draw to move forward and grab the lead. Pushed a fast pace, going hard early on, while pestered on the outside. Still ahead approaching the final furlong and only went down late.

Excellent run off a career-lowest mark. Ran twice to higher speed ratings on the All-Weather. Clearly in shape to win again. Only one win from 19 runs is a poor return, though.

Didn’t always have luck with the draw latest. Has speed for minimum trip as well. Big chance wherever he goes next with a good draw and if he can dominate from the front. (huge nto performance 08/04 in hot race)

Race Replay

Watermelon Sugar
07/03/23 – 4.00 Lingfield:

Held up in last, going strongly as the field turned for home. Good progress against inside rail but momentum stopped, didn’t get a run until switched late to finish seriously well nearly hard held.

Held back in last races. Normally, if on a going day, right up with the pace. Seems to have speed for minimum trip but probably best over 6 furlongs.

Interesting on the All-Weather with money and a good draw; otherwise clearly one to monitor for the first weeks back on turf (subsequent run 28/03 ca be excused due to poor start).

Race Replay

Gatwick Kitten
07/03/23 – 5.10 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace going well on the inside where he came challenging from two furlongs out, before having his momentum stopped by shifting rival who closed the gap.

Comeback run, and first start for new yard. Looks in fine form. Did improve in the past for reappearance. Appears to be fairly handicapped on last seasons form.

Any improvement to come out of the yard change will see him have a cracking chance, especially back on turf over 5-6 furlongs. He loves it over the 5.5f at Brighton in particular (something seemed amiss next time out 28/03, also over 7f; somewhat worrying but will give him the chance).

Race Replay

Broughtons Flare
08/03/23 – 4.30 Lingfield:

Seriously keen the first half of race race, travelling wide, without cover. It was impressive to see him still able to finished the fastest over the last tree furlongs from off the pace.

Remains in strong form. Won three times earlier this year. Not desperately well handicapped on speed ratings off current mark, but a drop to 7 furlongs would be really interesting, if not a mile with a good pace to aim at.

Otherwise one to wait for, to drop a couple of pounds (ignore next time 25/03 over 8.5f, not the right trip).

Race Replay

Lion Ring
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Moved quickly forward from wide draw, travelled on the outside, pushing the pace. Outpaced from over two furlongs out but gutsy and finished well to the line in hot race. Ran career-best speed rating

Was 2lb out of the weights. Recently claimed from Ireland. Ran well many times over there, but remains a maiden after 29 starts.

He can win if he drops down to class 6 over 6f I firmly believe as he may find these lower races in the UK easier (15/8 favourite nto, touched rail, short of room, odd run, can be excused).

Race Replay

Concierge
08/03/23 – 5.35 Kempton:

Travelled the back of the field. Made really good progress on the inside, showed multiple accelerations from mid-race right onward to finish the fastest from 4f out.

Excellent comeback run. He’s down to a good mark. Can be slowly away but judged on last years turf campaign, especially the first half, he is now handicapped to win soon, especially as he showed here to be in brilliant form. (nto 25/03 to be ignored; wait for return to turf).

Race Replay

Pillar Of Hope
09/03/23 – 6.15 Newcastle:

Alertly away, disputed the lead, until coming under pressure from 2 furlongs out. Kept going well before fading inside the final furlong.

Comeback run. Won twice on his return before. Probably better on turf and over 10 furlongs. Career-best in September at Redcar, when he ran to 86 speed rating. One to keep an eye out for turf in a few weeks time.

Race Replay

Piranheer
09/03/23 – 1.15 Southwell:

Poor start from #1 draw, soon detached in rear and plenty to do. Motored home from three furlongs out to finish the fastest, doing so rather easily under hands and heels.

Looks one who’s prepared for a specific day. One to monitor in the betting; judged on this form he’s certainly able to win off his current mark if the handbrake is off.

Race Replay

Love Destiny
10/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Up with the good pace early on travelling wide, before settling in 2nd/3rd tracking a few lengths off. Going okay turning for home but came under severe pressure and seemingly going backwards from 2f out. Impressive how he fought back to finish 4th.

Looks to hit form. Drop in grade helped as well. Lost another 3lb on his official rating, and clearly down to dangerous mark. Possibly one ready to strike soon over 7f in similar race.

Race Replay

Kitbag
13/03/23 – 6.30 Wolverhampton:

Right up with the early and hot pace from his wide draw; was the only one who kept going in the final furlong, bar the strongly finishing favourite from off the pace.

Not exactly lightly raced. But chance given by handicapper now, and offers scope to move up in trip given his pedigree. Would be especially interesting over 7f (excellent nto 2nd place effort over 6f again, strong form possibly).

Race Replay

Nordic Glory
17/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Travelled in midfield, going okay and possibly poised for challenge turning for home when carrying his head awkwardly. Appeared short of room a number of times too, but kept going well. Finished seriously strongly nto (31/03) when in rear and wide.

Clearly hitting strong form. Will be big runner soon; back over 5 or 6f on turf also interesting. Still winless on grass but ran career best speed rating last summer at Goodwood. Probably best on decent ground.

Race Replay

Motagally
18/03/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Awkward away from widest draw, bumped by rival; settled in rear but seriously keen. Good progress from the back of the field against the inside rial in the home straight.

Normally 7f too far. Hasn’t shown much for nearly two years, although somewhat unlucky in final run last year. The way he finished here suggests he’s close to hitting some proper form.

Intriguing if he can find a 6f race on turf with decent to fast ground.

Race Replay

My Little Tip
24/03/23 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Went quickly forward from the widest draw to dispute early- then chase the pace. Bit flat footed over 2f out but ran on well for 4th without able to match pace of winner.

Ran well this winter at Dundalk. Down to good mark now, especially on turf over 7f. Ideally decent ground but anything good to soft to good to firm that’s not on the extremer side should be fine.

Race Replay

Apprentice
24/03/23 – 7.30 Dundalk:

Up with the pace early on from the widest draw. Travelling widest throughout, not an economical ride. Tried to apply pressure from 3f out but didn’t have pace to match of speedier rivals. Ran well to the line nonetheless.

Lightly raced, only second Handicap start. Half-sister needed 10 furlongs to win. Looks on the small size. One to monitor for the step up in trip into an easier race. Betting will also determine when she tries.

Race Replay

Macho Pride
24/03/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Pushed the past as part of duo until he hit the front briefly 2f out, then tired rapidly, although didn’t fully collapse and showed encouraginging signs as he went hard the first couple of furlongs.

Solid performances in recent months with ever threatening. Rewarded with a lovely mark now, ready for a 6f turf sprint on decent ground.

Well-handicapped in those conditions as he confirmed he’s probably still capable to run to the sort of level he showed last season when he ran three times to speed ratings of 57+.

Race Replay

Beau Jardine
25/03/23 – 4.40 Lingfield:

Made most of #1 draw and went forward to lead, set seriously good pace, going well and only swamped for good entering the final furlong, but continued to ran well to the line without being hammered.

Clear return to form after a long drop in the ratings on the back of poor showings ever since the early days of his career. This should be strong form.

Dropped another 2lb and of serious interest next time with any support in the market, most likely at his best over a mile.

Race Replay

Ventura Express
25/03/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Smartly away but soon restrained from his wide draw. In rear going well; steered into traffic approaching the home straight; only clear inside the final furlong finishing seriously well.

Clearly in strong form. Ran career best speed rating a few weeks earlier. Minium trip probably his best. Won last summer off 80 on turf. Not dramatically well handicapped off 79 right now but clearly ripe for a big run once the handbreak is off for good again.

Race Replay

Harry The Haggler
27/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Moved forward from wide draw and tracked the pace. Bit raw in the early parts of the race (possibly received a kick from horse in front just before the first bend). Turned wide and awkward for home and lost ground. Ran on well.

Good form. Still lightly raced as this was his handicap debut. Came back in January after being off the track and gelded since May. Appears to cry out out for a step up in trip, although I feel 7 furlongs on a less sharp track is also worth a try.

Race Replay

Harry’s Hill
25/03/23 – 2.15 Curragh:

Bit awkward away, but then showed then good ealy speed, disputing the lead. Going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.

Was up against it on class here as well as next time at Cork when not disgraced either. Both runs warrant upgrading as ground too soft to see him at his best.

Should find it easier in lesser grade and may get more help from handicapper too. Minimum trip on ground not properly soft remains of interest.

Race Replay

Tammany Hall
25/03/23 – 5.37 Curragh:

Travelled well enough in midfield and solid progress from 3f out, before being carried to his left from 2f out. Short of room in a pocket about 1.5f from home. Effort petered out once in the clear.

Dropped 3lb in the meantime. Infrequent winner but probably well-handicapped judged on strong runs in Handicaps last season. 5-6f with cut in the ground the ideal scenario. Should improve for this return.

Race Replay

The Toff
29/03/23 – 1.35 Lingfield:

Tracked the pace, although first couple of furlongs not the most economical, let the leader and eventual winner kick before going after him. Finished strong second and fastest last three furlongs of all.

Still a maiden, though, not without promise in a number of runs prior. Gelded in October and two good runs subsequently, but he didn’t see out a mile.

Dropped to good mark and clearly able to win over 7f furlongs. Uncomplicated sort usually up with the pace. Interesting if he can find a slightly easier race over 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Ballybaymoonshiner
29/03/23 – 2.10 Lingfield:

Went quickly forward from the widest gate (#13) to grab the lead and set a solid pace. Going well turning for home and still in front approaching the final furlong marker. Only went down inside the last half furlong.

Good performance and rock solid form. Knocked on the door multiple times despite still being a maiden after 15 runs. A mile is too far, 7f right on his limit.

Ran a number of solid speed ratings in the last weeks and months that suggest he’s well capable to win off a 51 mark. Chelmsford entry over 7f on Thursday of real interest if he’s got a good draw.

Race Replay

Nefarious:
29/03/23 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Slowly away, in rear, outpaced from over 3 furlongs out, seemingly back on the bridle entering the home straight with delayed effort from jockey who made sure the horse got the most uneconomical ride possible.

6f is on the sharp side. Wasn’t in it to win it and hasn’t been the last few times. Dropped to sexy mark and of serious interest over 7f again.

Race Replay

Phoenix Star
29/03/23 – 8.30 Kempton:

Held up well off the pace, had loads to d still over two furlongs out then picked his way through the field and fished incredibly strongly.

Dropped another 2lb for this effort. Clearly in strong form, ran well this winter on the AW as well. On a good mark for sand and turf. Ran to better speed ratings multiple time in the last half year. Effective over 5-6f.

Race Replay

Ghost Lights
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Wide draw no help, forced to settle in rear. Going okay before turned wide for challenge, finished strongly against front-runner pace bias in slowly run race. Probably decent form.

Lightly raced, handicap debut. Showed promise in three starts prior. Pedigree points to possible improvement for step up to 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Mucky Mulconry
31/03/23 – 1.50 Lingfield:

Path forward blocked after the start, forced to settle off the pace. Asked for effort from over 2 furlongs out. Huge finish against the inside rail in slowly run race.

Second run for new yard since moving over from Ireland. Still lightly raced enough and this effort when money was down suggests he’s capable to win off a mark around 50.

Race Replay

Dark Design
31/03/23 – 2.25 Lingfield:

Moved quickly forward from his wide draw to track eventual and very strong winner racing in second place. Didn’t have the pace to match and tired in the final furlong.

Still solid ran, as mostly he ran well in recent weeks and months. Dropped 2lb and interesting anywhere from 6-8f on AW or turf. Won off 55 and 57 last season, ran to 56 speed rating in January.

Race Replay

Sir Benedict
31/03/23 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Awkward start, in rear, behind a wall of horses from 2f out; good progress from 1f out, before stopped again with half a furlong to go.

Tricky sort who finds trouble regularly. Clearly down to good mark and in super form. With a clear run very much ready to strike next time.

Race Replay

Global Tycoon
31/03/23 – 3.15 Southwell:

Moved forward to grab the lead, not uncontested for the most part, though. Keen in the first half of the race. Going okay turning for home, only relinquished lead around the final furlong then tired rapidly.

Return off 274 days off. Not sure he stays a mile, either. Won well at Kempton over 7f last autumn. Still lightly raced. Interesting down to 7f again off his reassessed 56 mark.

Race Replay

Cruise
01/04/23 – 4.25 Kempton:

Raced in last, bit raw and fresh, niggled; attempted to make challenge from 2f out when going best toward the inside, path blocked and short of room until jockey takes big pull at the final furlong marker to get space on the outside. Finished easily the best under hands and heels.

Fair to assume she would have won with a clear run, perhaps even if she would have been ridden more vigorously in the final furlong in any case. Depth of form questionable, though.

Changed yards during winter for £27,000. First start since August. Should improve. Opening mark possibly lenient on this evidence. May be to short a price next time (entry 11/04).

Race Replay

Greatgadian
01/04/23 – 3.35 Doncaster:

The wide draw was far from an advantage, he travelled in rear and had to come around the widest outside on the far side to make a challenge from over two furlongs out. Flat footed from 1f out but kept going well to the line.

In solid form all winter. Definitely prefers better ground than the deep going in the Lincoln. Stays 10 furlongs and now down to a mark of 98 interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Glory Fighter
02/04/23 – 5.40 Doncaster:

Went forward, but not before the jockey lost his irons early; quickly recovered, led but closely followed. Under pressure from 2f out and gradually weakened, though, ran well to the line for 3rd place.

Good reappearance. Down to fair mark. Caught the eye a few times last year without winning. Pretty ground independent, bar proper fast ground. Although, best performances came on good to soft to genuine good ground, over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Toussarok
03/04/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Led, setting a steady pace, travelling full of enthusiasm. Challenged from two furlongs and no chance with the winner, but impressive how he kept answering the calls, stuck his neck out and found for pressure.

Clearly in good nick. On good mark. Won off 79 last year on turf. Ideally drops down to 6f on decent ground. Otherwise happy to wait, as if he drops a few pounds he’ll be seriously well handicapped.

Race Replay

Cavalier Approach
04/04/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Bit awkward away from the gate. Travelled well against inside rail before short of room over 2 furlongs out, lost ground and momentum but jockey also didn’t seem particularly bothered. Finished nicely under light hands and heels.

Clearly never been in it to win it and never has been in five career runs. Worth to monitor the market the next few times. Seems to be in good shape.

Comes down to solid mark now, ran 55 speed rating last autumn which looks legit given the depth of that form. Minimum trip should be fine for now. May have some scope to move up in trip, too.

Race Replay

Revoquable
04/04/23 – 3.45 Thirsk:

Wide draw forced him to settle well off the pace. Trailed as the field turned for home, delayed challenge before getting into the clear about two furlongs from home. Ran on well but couldn’t get back to winner. Finished best of all.

Down to good mark now, after largely uneventful All-Weather season since a strong 1m win at Southwell in October.

Ran to 59 speed rating that day, hence fair to assume off 54 (if left untouched by handicapper) he’s got to be an interesting runner on possibly better ground over 7-8f.

Race Replay

Makalu
04/04/023 – 4.15 Thirsk:

Unusual good start but wide draw forced him to settle in rear. Trailed when turning for home but made excellent progress from 3f out before not quite the clearest of runs from two furlongs from home. Finished best.

Excellent reappearance and return to form after a bunch of poor performances last season. Clearly capable off 55, having ran to better speed ratings in the past.

One who wasn’t the sharpest out of the gate and needs a bit of luck due to his racing style. Ideally better ground, 6-7 furlongs fine.

Race Replay

Captain Corcoran
04/04/23 – 5.45 Thirsk:

Awkward start, held up in rear, travelled well, good progress from three furlongs out but not clear run entering the final furlong. Finished nicely nonetheless under pretty easy ride.

Clearly ridden with intend not to show all of his cards here. Usually up with the pace. Nice reappearance after light All-Weather campaign in any case. On a good turf mark and ready to rock any time soon.

Race Replay

Coast
05/04/23 – 2.25 Wolverhampton:

Moved quickly forward and set fast pace. Had the field on the stretch and still ahead approaching final furlong before fading badly.

Doesn’t stay 7f. Strong run, backed up recent massive runner-up performance. Down to six furlongs will become interesting. Although has a couple of 7f entries. Hopefully she can get find a way to drop below 54 to become seriously intriguing.

Race Replay

Totnes
05/04/23 – 3.00 Wolverhampton:

Travelled very strongly in rear of the field, good progress from 3f out. going much the best. Challenge petered out from over 1f out as she hang badly to the left.

Can be excused. Perhaps something wasn’t right. She was ultra-impressive weeks earlier over the same C&D, winning in the manner of a talented filly on only her second career run.

She should be better than than the 71 opening mark. Pedigree points to stamina for more improvement to come beyond 7 furlongs.

Race Replay

Albert Cee
05/04/23 – 4.30 Kempton:

Off to a quick start, right up with the hot pace, travelled strongly and kicked on over 2f out. Beaten by better horse on the day but impressive as he fought back gamely late.

Could improve for this outing, first one for a new yard and as a 3-year-old. Uncomplicated sort, and if not too harshly reassessed by the handicapper, of real interest in similar race with a little bit less pace to compete.

Race Replay

Intervention
06/04/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Hard to control as overly keen early on, led go after first two furlongs. Established comfortable lead but did way too much and faded badly in the home straight. 1m is too far, in any case.

Highly frustrating sort due to incredible consistently. Ran numerous times really well over the winter (inlcuding lto catching the eye). But in the grip of the handicapper. Ran two career best speed ratings this winter as well.

Perhaps it was a final bow by connections that he need help from the handicapper to allow him to run a race without intent to do well. One to monitor, if he can find a way to fall to 75 he’d be intriguing over 6f on the AW. Would like to see more assistance before being interested on turf.

Race Replay

Creme De Cacao
06/04/23 – 7.30 Southwell:

Keenly moved forward and led, set good pace, although closely followed and put under pressure around the bend. Kicked on while travelling on the bridle approaching the home straight. Tired from 2f out but nice attitude as she fought back gamely all the way to the line.

If she can settle a bit better, which isn’t impossible, given this was the handicap debut for this lightly raced filly (April foal), she offers upside off her opening mark. Not impossible that she can drop to 6 furlongs also.

Race Replay

Compare
06/04/23 – 2.10 Chelmsford:

Awkward start, heavily bumped a rival, led early on before settling in third. Kicked on nicely against inside rail approaching the home straight; hit the front 1f out, strong run to the line but no chance with winner from off the pace eventually.

Possibly strong form. Winner won back-to-back with this; third won last time out. Others looked solid in this field. He was a 50/1 shot, clearly outran his price.

Still lightly raced enough. Offers upside over a mile ran at a decent pace. May stretch out to 10 furlongs; either way deserves another chance.

Race Replay

Mr Escobar
07/04/23 – 2.05 Lingfield:

Travelled very smoothly tracking the pace. Confident ride, jockey took multiple pulls as they turned the home bend, seemingly going much the best. Didn’t get the gap in the home straight and minded in the closing stages.

Short-priced favourite, Ryan Moore spoke in glowing words beforehand; an obvious one, perhaps too short next time. Lightly raced, improved nicely at Dundalk in maiden company. Clearly ahead of his mark over these sort of trips.

Race Replay

Captain Dandy
07/04/23 – 1.40 Bath:

Had no chance from the widest draw but did exceptionally well against the bias finishing best of those drawn in the high numbers.

Confirmed huge impression from lto win at Wolverhampton when he finished seriously well after missing the break and giving the field a headstart.

Tricky sort who can miss the break, did much better here at Bath and perhaps the penny has dropped, somewhat. One to keep an eye on for headgear and/or for being gelded.

Race Replay

Madam Fenella
07/04/23 – 2.15 Bath:

Awkward start, wore hood to post; she’s tricky as the past tells. Travelled well and did seriously well to finish as close as she did from her wide draw.

Had limited opportunities on turf in handicap company. Ascot run from last September noteworthy. Probably not much scope in terms of moving up in trip beyond 6 furlongs.

Intriguing once she drops down to class 6 on turf. She seems to handle soft ground but has shown to stay 6 furlongs as well, possibly interesting on better ground.

Race Replay

Gioia Cieca
08/04/23 – 2.25 Musselburgh:

Not quite the sharpest of starts early on; soon tracked the pace and was going okay with bit of progress on inside before heavily under pressure from 2f out. Stuck with it and ran well to the line, no match for winner, though.

Good to see him finish well after break and first time since a wind OP. Can be upgraded as softish ground far from ideal. Hasn’t ran overly impressive speed ratings yet but deserves a chance over 7f on decent to fast ground.

Possibly well-handicapped in those conditions judged on last season. Not one to give to many chances but worth to wait for his conditions, in any case.

Race Replay

Rock Melody
08/04/23 – 4.45 Musselburgh:

In rear racing against the inside rail with plenty to do over 1f out. Rapid progress but squeezed and short of room in the closing stages; finished really well.

Lovely return from a break and for a new yard. Trip on the sharp side. Better over 6 and 7 furlongs. On a workable mark, has ran to similar speed ratings already.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
08/04/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Missed break, keen afterwards. Uneventful run. Caught the eye a number of times when he ran well in last weeks and entered on Eyecatchers #7.

Really liked his lto Kempton run as well. However, after he tried a number of times now it’s clear now he’s in the grip of the handicapper and needs some help, hence no surprise to see him having missed the break here.

Monitor as he falls below 60 (ideally 58 and lower) for return to front-running tactics over stiff 5f or 6f.

Race Replay

Three Beauz
09/04/23 – 2.05 Southwell:

Bit awkward away, bumped by rival, possibly lit up as a consequence. Travelled keenly, approached 2f powerfully, though. Behind wall of horses, had to switch very wide, made good ground all the time. Couldn’t quite sustain effort.

Off a break, still lightly raced and offers plenty of upside. Looks capable to win off current mark if he can progress from this run. Number of good performances as a juvenile, also on turf. Decent ground and minimum trip would be intriguing.

Race Replay

Betting

Friday Selections: 7th April 2023

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First winner for the month on Wednesday: Bang On The Bell (9/2; 4/1 SP) won his race at Wolverhampton. Although, not quite in the manner I had anticipated as he blew the start and had do it the hard way. Thankfully, he held on and showed grit in the final furlong.

Dog Fox was withdrawn, unfortunately; after misbehaving in the stalls; there’ll be another day.

Sharon Macready refused to settle as they tried to drop her in. I could have seen that coming. She’s done it before. Like…. always. Even over the minimum trip. Backing her over 6 furlongs was simply a poor decision.

……….

3.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

The “All-Weather Vase Sprint Handicap” looks one of those uncompetitive-competitive handicaps. Plenty of runners, more or less similar ability, plenty of chances without any real standout and very few well-handicapped ones, if any.

Hence I’m prepared to give Emperor Spirit a solid shout at this, who seems overpriced in this field, for a myriad of reasons.

For one, it’s only two runs back that he seriously caught the eye at Newcastle:

He grabbed the lead promptly, set a red hot pace, but was pestered by a rival throughout, yet travelled strongly, before drifting across the track as he got really tired in the closing stages and was eventually overpowered by two horses from off the pace to finish third.

That was a strong performance and rock solid form, and his subsequent and most recent run doesn’t distract from it in my view – he was well beaten when last seen but that was a hot 5 furlong sprint on his debut for a new yard. No doubt the minimum trip is too sharp.

He ran pretty well all winter, though; especially over this course and distance in early December off 5lb higher than he’s currently rated, going off the 15/8 favourite, only beaten late in the day – doing so with cheek pieces fitted, which are on here again after an absence recently.

Subsequent form did suggest he ran not far below that level of form; although he’s a horse who finds it tough to get his head in front, hence he has fallen ever so slightly down to a 85 mark now.

He ran to higher speed ratings in the past, so there is an argument to be made that he’s weighted to win.

The race may develop to his advantage: he could establish an easy lead and good early rhythm and subsequently tough to peg back for a third career victory. He’s got the benefit of the #1 draw and there’s not too much pace pressure especially as other prominent horses are wider drawn.

10pts win – Emperor Spirit @ 11/1

…….

3.25 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3.5f

On the basis of ground, trip and handicap mark one can rule out more than half the field. Gastronomy seems the default favourite given his unexposed profile for strong connections, but is clearly poor value given the short price with questions to answers on ground and trip.

Nonetheless, the one I have an eye on is the 5-yeaer-old mare Reach, who could be quite well handicapped here.

She’s one I flagged in the Handicappers To Follow piece, although I didn’t expect to find such an ideal opportunity so soon after publishing the list.

Reach is very lightly raced for her age. She created a strong impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, especially with cut in the ground.

I’ve got little doubts about her race fitness. I expect her to be ready to go. Connections couldn’t have hoped for a better race to kick-off the season.

10pts win – Reach @ 15/2

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: Older Handicappers

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Second part of a series that tries to pick out intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Age Of Sail
4-yo gelding / Garry Moore / Frankel – Concordia

Caught the eye on all his last three starts on the flat in 2022. Doesn’t do things in a rush but has been knocking on the door over 10-12 furlongs last season.

Perhaps would benefit from cut in the ground. Deep ground over 10 furlongs interesting, but can see him move all the way up to 2 miles as well. Plenty of stamina and soft ground form in the pedigree.

Tried hurdling with varying degree of success over the winter. If he returns to the flat now as a 4-year-old he could be ready to exploit his 76 OR in the right races.

Al Husn
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / Dubawi – Hadaatha

Unbeaten in three starts in 2022. Last two strong performances in Newmarket Handicaps. Impressive when last seen, travelling well, before becoming a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before finishing really strongly to win.

Still quite lightly raced and open to improvement. Deserves a chance in listed race but also must have a chance to stay beyond 10f given she settles better now and has the pedigree.

Alseeyerthere
5-yo mare / Steph Hollinshead /Al Kazeem – Magic Destiny

Only three career runs, now eligible for Handicaps, should be ready to exploit opening mark. Caught the eye the last two runs, although didn’t seem to get home over 7 furlongs.

Full-sister to two winners over 6- to 7 furlongs, generally on better to fast ground. She showed good early speed in her July race and was keen the last two times to suggest she may follow more closely the route of Al Simmo who is a 88 rated multiple winner over 6 furlongs.

Blue Daisy
4-yo filly / George Boughey / Teofilo – Balsamine

Showed glimmers of ability toward the end of last season. Especially encouraging the way she stayed on in her final run in 2022 when not getting the best of runs from the back of the field.

Seems a temperamental filly as the headgear combination suggests as well. Off a 60 OR she appeals if she moves up in trip, though. Especially with cut in the ground on turf would be an intriguing runner.

Caph Star
4-yo Colt / Roger Varian / Siyouni – Caskelena

Promising on debut when 3rd in a hot race, running to 71 speed rating. Seriously impressive at Kempton subsequently, producing a rapid acceleration.

Not seen since then. Cost £200k as a yearling. Has the pedigree to improve this year, especially if he moves up in trip. Obvious question mark over long absence, though.

Desert Glory
4-yo gelding / James Tate / Churchill – Polygon

Green and raw on both starts last year. Badly outpaced when last seen. Looks to hit the ground hard.

Was gelded in January. Cost £55k as a yearling. Family does well on softer ground and All-Weather. He looks one sure to appreciate a step up in trip as well. Looks likely to improve as a 4yo – if he returns.

Floral Splendour
4-yo filly / Ian Jardine / Farhh – Red Tulip

Lightly raced filly. Not disgraced in heavy ground in final start in 2022. Eyecatching on her penultimate start at Musselburgh, when heavily bumped early and a clear run denied in the home straight.

Looks open to progress, especially if she moves up to a mile, possibly beyond, on decent ground then.

Flagman
5-yo gelding / Deborah Faulkner / Kingman – Sense Of Joy

Promising performance in October at Kempton when he stayed on well. Badly outpaced in the home straight the next two times. Although, showed good early speed from the gate and travelled well.

Still lightly raced in interesting off 53 mark if he returns and moves up in distance, seems to be crying out for a trip. Full-sister won over 9 furlongs a Leopardstown maiden.

Invisible Friend
4-yo filly / Kevin Ryan / Sea The Stars – Stealth Missile

Lightly raced full-sister to smart handicapper Irish Legend. Fetched €160k as a foal. Won well on only second career outing despite showing serious signs of greenness, as she did on debut as well. Hasn’t been seen since August, though.

The form doesn’t amount to much as she only had three rivals to beat and the runner-up is rated 52. The fact she kicking clear nicely at a track seemingly she doesn’t enjoy, over a trip probably sharp enough, is encouraging.

The full-sister needed time as well and progressed nicely as a 4-year-old, stayed 10 furlongs+, and was potent on the All-Weather.

Majestic Fighter
4-yo gelding / H&R Charlton / Teofilo – Majestic Manner

Ran a huge race when last seen at Kempton after going wide all the way finishing very strongly. Ran a number of strong efforts in handicaps throughout the year.

Could have more to offer as a 4yo as he moves up in trip. Gives the impression he can get further than a mile, and has a chance on pedigree. Ran to an 80 speed rating, which means any improvement will see him become suddenly quite well-handicapped, potentially.

Prakasa
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / The Gurkha – Khor Sheed

Showed her inexperience in all three starts. Won well at Kempton at the second time of asking, though. Form isn’t worth much but she showed she doesn’t lack a change of gear. Travelled strongly dropped to a mile but not good enough on the day when last seen.

Looks open to plenty of progress if moving up to 10 furlongs. Family stays well. Opening mark of 78 looks potentially lenient.

Rampage
4-yo gelding / TG McCourt / New Bay – Hall Hee

Improved dramatically for his first Handicap start in July at Thirsk over a mile. Arguably unlucky to be beaten by tiny margin and the way the race panned out.

Was sold for £1,000 subsequently, after another encouraging run at Newcastle as he was up there for long time and possibly needed the run then. Also may find a mile too sharp.

Moved to Ireland in the meantime and travelled really well for a long time in a Handicap last week. Should have more to offer up in trip, especially of a potentially lenient mark. Dam’s offspring tends to improve over 10f, and runs well on the All-Weather.

Reach
5-yo mare / M&D Easterby / Sea The Stars – Ameliorate

Very lightly raced for her age. She created a good impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, possibly with cut in the ground.

Vazire
4-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Frankel – Aricia

Lightly raced filly who improved nicely last year. Stepped up to middle distance without a problem at Chester after giving impression she would enjoy a trip. She won really well when last seen the way she travelled and kicked on.

The Chester form is strong and ties in well with the improve she showed from the previously quite eyecatching Sandown performance.

Every chance she can improve as a 4-year-old over middle-distance. Family tends to stay well, therefore even 12 furlongs not out of question. A mark off 82 could underestimate her early in the season – if she’s still in training, as she wasn’t seen since last June.

Wanees
4-yo gelding / Charles Hills / Le Havre – Waldnah

Was a super progressive three-year-old in 2022. Impressive the way he won when last seen at Haydock. Did it easily after pulling early on. Tends to be quite keen, but should stay 10 furlongs on pedigree if he can settle.

Every chance for further improvement as a 4-year-old and gelding. Revised handicap mark gives him plenty of options in hot handicaps or potentially moving up to lower graded level in the early parts of the season.

The Lincoln run last month can be excused given the ground was way too soft for him. But the run may help him to be a backable price next time.

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 5th April 2023

1 Comment

4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

In an ideal world Bang On The Bell would race off his soon to be revised mark, or even a couple of pounds lower, but I feel even off 71 he’s got a fine chance to win in this race against beatable opposition, especially with the race possibly to pan out in his favour.

I don’t judge him harshly on the way he dropped away last time he was seen. That day he had to overcame the widest draw – which he did – but was then way too keen in the first half of the race over 6 furlongs that was a stretch.

He’s better judged on his penultimate run over this course and distance as he encounters it here, when once again he enjoyed a perfect and quick start from the widest draw to get to the leaders right before the field entered the turn.

He pushed a strong pace as part of trio, before getting quite tired in the home straight once again. That looks good form, and was an improvement on his comeback run prior.

In my view the last two runs warrant an upgrade. In that light, it’s clear he’ll enjoy the return to the minimum trip, this time without the disadvantage of a wide draw.

There’s only one other true pace horse in this small field, so it won’t be any hassle to get to the front. It should help that the other possible pace setter, Glorious Charmer – who doesn’t seem well handicapped now – is going to be there to help push a good pace,.

This scenario in turn may help Bang On The Bell to relax a bit better and then enjoy possibly the run of the race turning for home. He ran to a 72 speed rating back in August over this C&D, and 70 in December over 5f at Chelmsford – therefore he’s clearly capable to run to the level required to win here.

10pts win – Bang On The Bell @ 9/2

……

4.55 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

A minefield of unknowns but there is no question Dog Fox is the most intriguing one here. He’s one I flagged up in my 3-year-old handicappers to follow list and feel this represents a superb opportunity to get off the mark.

This confidence may seem misplaced given Dog Fox showed nothing in three runs as a juvenile. However, those runs came over trips that were clearly on the sharp side.

He’s bred to enjoy middle-distance trips and is expected to improve dramatically in handicap company going up in trip. The majority of his dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs, as his sire Cityscape has a 10.1 stamina index to offer.

An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged purely on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

The soft ground won’t be an issue I reckon. The sire and dam enjoyed cut in the ground during their respective racing careers.

10pts win – Dog Fox @ 3/1

……

5.00 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Am I really prepared to follow Sharon Macready over the cliff? I certainly am! This filly is hugely frustrating but no doubt has some talent and is well handicapped if she can finally relax a bit better. She’s ready to win, sooner rather than later.

Going up in trip does seem counterintuitive. But I do believe the trip doesn’t really matter. She stays the distance as she is a proven distance winner and ‘all’ it takes is her to relax in the early parts a bit better. Without dropping her head she won’t get home even over three furlongs.

I can make excuses for her recent run at Southwell. It was as strange race, although one that looks strong the way the form worked out. Sharon Macready had an award start, also bumped rival, was a huge price on the day and never looked like the same enthusiastic individual she did prior.

I liked those three earlier runs this year – she showed often blistering early speed but made life difficult for herself. She is now down to a 60 rating – clearly she is better than that, also given her full-sister has multiple wins at 60+ to her name,

The race could work out well from a pace scenario. The low draw will help her to get to the front. She may enjoy an easy enough lead. She may hard to peg back over this course and distance if she finds a good rhythm.

10pts win – Sharon Macready @ 5/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: 3-year-old Handicappers

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First part of a series that tries to pick out a number of intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Ana Emaraaty
3-yo gelding / Owen Burrows / Awtaad – Sundus

Very green on debut and sole start in August. Gelded in the meantime. Will be interesting once in Handicap company over 10 furlongs.

Looks likely to enjoy softish conditions, appears to have quite a high knee action. Dam’s offspring tends to perform best with cut in the ground, so does Awtaad’s offspring (3yo Handicappers).

Amleto
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Sea The Stars – Holy Moon

Green on debut, improved effort in strong Kempton race subsequently, travelled quite nicely. Big drifter in the betting on both occasions.

Full-brother to Sea Of Class. Retains a Derby entry but unlikely to turn out that good now. Nonetheless, bound to improve dramatically as 3-year-old compared to what he showed last season, especially if he goes up in trip.

Alhambra Palace
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Le Havre – Lady Francesca

Slowly into stride in both career runs. Bit unlucky on debut, but didn’t get hard ride after becoming short of room over 2f out in heavy going. Finished well under easy ride at Kempton.

Was a £58k foal, a year later sold for £230k as a yearling. Related to some good winners and has pedigree to do well on turf as well as All-Weather, most likely seen to best effect once up in trip as a half-brother to Northumberland Plate 4th place finisher.

As a son of Le Havre he will enjoy races with emphasis on stamina. Needs one more run to qualify for a handicap mark.

Barrier
3-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Australia – Pure Fantasy

Temperamental, had issues out of the gate on both career runs. Final 2022 performance can be upgraded when unlucky in the home straight.

One to keep an eye out for the opening mark, very much depends on final qualifying start. A mark in the 70’s or lower would be interesting as she steps up in trip. Will likely need plenty of cut in the ground for anything below longer trips.

Australia’s record with 3yo fillies is strong; generally with 3yo’s in lower grade handicaps on stiff tracks, with cut in the ground is noteworthy and ties in nicely with the overall profile of the filly.

Birchmore Len
3-yo gelding / Michael Madgwick / Sixties Icon – Steel Free

Showed absolutely nothing in three runs as a juvenile. Opening mark of 61 is harsh on that basis.

Will only show his true colours once hew moves significantly up in trip, most likely 12 furlongs. Full-brother to modest staying handicapper Steel An Icon. Trainer knows this family well having trained the dam and some offspring.

Chinthurst
3-yo gelding / Jim Boyle / Nathanial – Sonnetation

Improved markedly on Handicap debut at Brighton. Found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he starts the season only a pound higher than that day, (OR 55) now as a gelding.

Even more so, as a son of Nathanial you can be almost certain he will improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip. Could be seriously well handicapped.

Dog Fox
3-yo gelding / Ed Dunlop / Cityscape – Dragonera

Showed nothing in three runs over trips that were clearly on the sharp side. Will improve for Handicaps and going up in trip. Majority of dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs.

There is also excellent All-Weather form in the pedigree. An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

Elterwater
3-yo filly / D & C Kubler / Camelot – Acquainted

Showed signs of improvement on Handicap debut when last seen in October when also quite well backed. Travelled nicely but didn’t have pace to match in the closing stages over 7 furlongs.

Is a full-sister to a smart Aussie performer over 1m to 10f who improved nicely in her days as a 3yo. She looked quite big last year and is possibly one to be most interested in Spring.

Should improve as she moved up to a mile in Handicap company; 10 furlongs shouldn’t be an issue either. New seasons OR of 59 looks ready to be exploited.

Eyetrap
3-yo colt / Jane Chapple-Hyam / Ulysses – Miss Dashwood

Excellent run in third place on final run in 2022 behind very smart winner. Opening mark could be lenient judged on this final run if he moves up in trip.

Vast majority of dam’s offspring improved with age and trip, and stayed 10 furlongs plus.

Folk Star
3-yo filly / David Simcock / Le Havre – Full Opera

Two lovely runs of educational matter in October 2022. Looked much better than bare results. Never asked a question, finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth. Will need one more run to qualify for a mark.

May foal. Plenty of scope to improve, especially as she goes up in trip. A stiff mile could be ideal before moving up further. Beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time.

Le Have offspring improves with age. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Especially potent over 1 mile to 10 furlongs from July on. Ideally stiff or galloping tracks not on a straight track.

Gold Aura
3-yo filly / Richard Hughes / Golden Horn – Lady Haidi

Showed promise in three starts as a juvenile over 7 furlongs. Looks bound to improve for a step up in trip as there is tons of stamina on sire and dam side. Could possibly enjoy the All-Weather, too.

Opening mark of 72 looks more than fair, given her solid juvenile form. Up in trip she could turn out to be well handicapped.

Golden Horn offspring tend to improve dramatically as they step up in trip. His record with fillies is strong.

Galilaeus
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Galileo – Madame Chiang

Unremarkable three runs as a juvenile on the surface of the form. Finished at the back of the field in the Eyetrap race. Badly outpaced but finished seriously well in the final furlong.

Cost 200k as a yearling and had a Derby entry. Gelded in the meantime. Clearly will need to go up in trip to show his best form. Opening mark could be quite lenient as he’s very well bred.

Lady Rascal
3-yo filly / George Boughey / Nathanial – Theladyinquestion

Solid debut and sole run as a juvenile over inadequate trip. Most likely won’t show true colours before she steps up significantly in trip. Full-sister to smart stayer Nate The Great.

Fetched £270k as a yearling back in 2021. Could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper once she had three qualifying runs.

Made seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in 9.5f maiden. Encouraging effort without ever threatening.

Mudskipper
3-yo colt / David Menuisier / Le Havre – Arendelle

Ran incredibly well in two of three runs as a juvenile, both placed performances can be marked up and look possibly strong form, judged through the winners.

Will be interesting as he goes up in trip. By Le Havre out of a Camelot mare, 10 furlongs will suit really well. Opening mark not a giveaway but with improvement to come as a 3-year-old could have something in hand.

Tribal Master
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Mastercraftsman – Snoqualmie Star

Gelded before debut run, showed nothing in two starts last year, but 7f way too short. Is a full-brother to smart stayer Tribal Craft (and modest staying handicapper).

Should get a low enough opening mark post qualifying run that could be exploited once he moves up significantly in trip.

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 16th March 2023

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6.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

I loved the return off 139 days from Saisons D’Or at Newcastle two weeks ago. He travelled well for a long time and seemed the one going best with less than 1.5 furlongs to go, ready to win the race. He fell away in the final furlong, though.

He ran to a good 59 speed rating, not too far off his current handicap mark. There is every reason to believe he can improve for the run. His spring form is usually really strong, he tends to run really well in the first two-three runs after a winter break.

Now an eight-year-old he isn’t getting any younger, but he’s fallen to a really good mark as he also has dropped into class 6.

This doesn’t look a strong race, hence I think the #7 draw may not be too much an issue to overcome. The yard tends to avoid this track with fancied runners at all, though. That’s a concern.

10pts win – Saisons D’Or @ 11.5/1

…….

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Plenty of unknowns here but one wo is most likely to improve significantly from his three starts as a juvenile is Get Stuck In.

He caught my eye in his final two runs last year; at Kempton and then Newmarket, he ran with tons of credit in pretty hot contests. What I loved most was the attitude he showed on those occasions.

Not only did he look straightforward enough, but also went forward, and tried really hard when challenged heavily in the closing stages.

Going up in trip to a mile can only be a positive, given his pedigree. He’s been gelded, which in itself may bring out additional improvement.

What gives me plenty of hope that this lad is ready to roll is the fact Mark/Charlie Johnston’s 4-year-olds have an excellent record on their reappearance off a break on the All-Weather.

Further to this, the pace in this race could be a muddy. But he likes to go forward, most likely, and could enjoy an uncontested lead. He may be hard to peg back.

10pts win – Get Stuck In @ 7/2

…….

8.20 Dundalk: 47-70 Handicap, 1m

Leabaland must be one of the unluckiest horses on Dundalk circuit given this winter. He’s often ran a lot better than bare form would read; one who definitely seems to find the trouble more often than not, has also been unfortunate with wide draws.

Each of his last five runs since he entered my radar in mid-October produced their own drama, and it wasn’t different when last seen in February over this course and distance as he just couldn’t get that the clear run, from entering the home straight until it was game over.

He looks clearly capable of his slightly revised mark of 60. Especially this time he enjoys a low draw, which will be a huge advantage. He’s a solid starter, and can just move forward, see how things fall, but in any case should be in a position to get a clear run this time.

There shouldn’t be any excuses this time. If he’s good enough this time is the day…. I think he’s good enough; added bonus having Seamie Heffernan in the saddle, who rode Leabaland to his last victory, ten month ago.

Hence I think these current prices are total bonkers. Of course, if things look too good to be true, often they aren’t true. We’ll find out tomorrow night.

10pts win – Leabaland @ 17/2

Betting

All-Weather Tuesday Selections: 14th March 2023

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Candy Warhol was seriously well backed on Monday, sadly she refused to settle and was keen for the majority of the race. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away.

Perhaps she needs some headgear. I wouldn’t lose hope quite yet and may be prepared to give her another chance next time.

All eyes will be on Cheltenham on Tuesday. I’ll settle in front of the TV with a good coffee and enjoy the races. But won’t be getting involved from a betting perspective.

Yes, I have a few fancies. But ultimately nothing strong enough to suggest it would be a good bet. My monetary interest will be riding on the Southwell Tapeta, instead.

…….

5.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

With a top amateur in the saddle Biplane looks ominous off a 62 mark. Judged on his very best effort over this C/D last summer he’s theoretically the one to beat. But he’s only ever ran once in 24 career runs to that level of form.

He will have to be a that level here, though, because I reckon the lightly raced Streetscape could have a few pounds in hand after a highly promising comeback- and first Handicap run last time out at Newcastle.

He moved forward to track the early pace until he started to challenge the leaders from over 2 furlongs out. He was gutsy right to the line but beaten by winner and second from the rear of the field in the end.

I thought he showed great attitude there, as he settled well early on and looked like trying seriously hard in the closing stages to keep the challengers at bay.

The race finished in a sprint, which can’t have been to his advantage, I believe, as he should stay a bit further on pedigree.

For now a mile should be fine. This is only going to be his 5th career-run and from his low draw I expect him to be a bit more aggressive this time to ensure it’s a solid gallop that will suit him.

The 3lb claim of Alice Keighley should be solid value. She usually sits on good chances, and posts a seriously strong record especially for this yard.

With that in mind, this lad should have a cracking chance and too much to offer of his rivals in this race.

10pts win – Streetscape @ 5/2

……

8.30 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Hot race. Autumn Angel has probably been leniently treated by the handicapper for her latest course and distance success. The issue I see: she will need a bit of luck and a clear run to catch those who inevitably will be any number of lengths in front as they turn for home.

Papa Cocktail is obviously of huge interest to me. A horse I am tracking since summer last year; he caught the eye once again in dramatic fashion last time; he’s almost certainly seriously well-handicapped. But I want him over 7 furlongs. He’s not one to trust and this shorter trip isn’t his best.

Putting any faith into a 15-race maiden may not be the wisest move. But Whiteandblue was a huge eyecatcher last time out as well, and I couldn’t be happier seeing her over 6 furlongs round a bend.

Last time at Newcastle she moved quickly forward and set a red hot pace – they went faster over the first half than the class 4 Handicap over 5 furlongs on the same card. She continued to lead until deep inside the final furlong but eventually was overwhelmed.

A huge run. And a career best speed rating – she had enough time to recover from the effort, and has been left untouched by the handicapper. The winner of that race went on to give the form a strong look having won subsequently again.

Since having changed yards her form has gradually improved and it looks like the penny may have dropped.

From the #6 draw she won’t have much trouble getting to the lead, or at least following it closely. Ireland’s Eye will move forward as well, most likely. I think this can only hep her to settle, having a bit of company early on.

Of course there is a chance that they go too hard once again. But I hope the turn will slow them down that little bit more than it was possibly at the straight Newcastle last time.

10pts win – Whiteandblue @ 6/1