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Opinion

The Curragh “failing to woo the punters”

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Groundhog Day: low attendance & poor racegoer experience – the Curragh is in the news for all the wrong reasons yet again.

Irish flat racing HQ staged the 3-day “Irish Guineas Festival” last weekend. A superb package of top-class racing, that included the first Classic races of the new season, as well as an additional five Group races.

Tickets were comparably cheap (€20 early bid), especially compared to other top-class sporting events (or admission to many UK racecourses). And yet, very few turned up to watch Lake Victoria romping home in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday, or a day earlier Field Of Gold getting his stylish redemption in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

No doubt, the shocking weather didn’t help to entice punters to go racing and brave the elements – a tragedy, because the racing was superb. But who can blame those who stayed home: the Curragh isn’t a great place to be at when the weather doesn’t play its part. That’s one of the disappointing facts about this shiny new facility that cost upward of €70 million to redevelop.

However, even in previous years, when the weather gods provided somewhat kinder conditions, attendance figures on Guineas weekend (3 days) didn’t make for pretty reading: 14.088 (2024), 14.773 (2023) and 12.700 (2022). Neither 2000 Guineas Saturday- or 1000 Guineas Sunday broke the 6.000 mark during this period.

This isn’t a once-off phenomenon – it’s a new normal for racing at the Curragh. Attendance for the Derby is anywhere between 10-13k these days, a dramatic decline from 2015, the final Derby run at the Curragh before the redevelopment, that saw a whopping 25.225 huddling around the parade ring to get a glimpse of Jack Hobbs.

Surely, nobody wants to try and rewrite history in an attempt to romanticise the old Curragh. It was a kip when it got finally demolished; walls could tell stories of yesteryear, electric cables dangling dangerously loose in the wind above the heads of racegoers, and the cramming inside the betting hall around the small TVs put those with claustrophobia in a state of paralysis.

Nonetheless, I used to be a member at the old Curragh and I loved the old, shabby place. The available space was rather well utilised to the most part, there was a logic flow through the track for the racegoer and even though the parade ring was a lot smaller than the new one, you still saw the horses!

Perhaps I am romanticising the old Curragh?!

The annual membership was affordable and provided dedicated parking, quick access to the track, a charming members bar overlooking the finish line, a designated members area to watch the racing with the best view across the track, and the occasional side offerings like trips to Coolmore Stud.

Back then the membership was about €180 and seriously good value, even if you couldn’t go every time they raced. In 2025 the membership fee stands at a whopping €350 (mind, when they reponed it was ‘only’ €265…. call that inflation?!).

Granted, that’s still not bad value if you go to all the 24 days. But who does that? Very few. It’s a steep price. In the past it was decent value even if you only went 10-12 times a year, plus the added perks made it worthwhile. Not so much these days.

Anecdotally (I would love to see official figures) the Curragh lost members during the rebuild (when they offered temporary facilities but charged full price, nonetheless) and certainly in subsequent years, due to the significant price hike.

The sad reality is, members or not, ever since the reopening of the redeveloped Curragh, people have voted with their feet and stayed largely away. The drop in attendance for marquee race days, as highlighted earlier, is nothing less than dramatic.

That’s strange, because logic would dictate that a new, modern facility would encourage more and not less people to attend fixtures.

While the official attendance figures for last weekend haven’t been released yet, it’s hard to believe they’ll be any better than the aforementioned figures in 2023 or 2024.

I was there and it didn’t feel a busy on Saturday. It’s certainly eye-opening when AK Bets outlines in their excellent The Racing Room Podcast that they took merely 95 and 55 on the two Classic days. On the lesser days, the place is basically deserted.

The question is: why? Why do people vote with their feet? It can’t be the price point: admission is incredibly affordable, even for the best days of racing at the Curragh – I want to highlight that as a clear positive (while I remain critical of the pricing for the membership) – the early bird offerings are superb value for money. €20 for the 2000 Guineas, €25 for the Irish Derby, for example.

The place hasn’t moved. It’s where its always been. Getting to it is possibly by public transport via bus or train and subsequent shuttle busses, albeit not as plain a sailing as it could be – I did that many years while living in Dublin. Car parking is free onsite. Food and drink, while not cheap, is competitively priced in comparison to rugby, football or GAA.

Why then the dramatic drop-off in attendance? From my personal experience the often cited pain points with the new Curragh mirror the ones I see as well:

  • Poor design and use of the space available – some key areas feel overcrowded even if overall attendance is low.
  • Parade ring isn’t a great place for viewing the horses ((despite having been redone!).
  • Main hall inside the stand gives the vibe of a train station or airport arrival hall.
  • Not enough seating available inside.
  • The roof’s still whistling furiously in windy conditions.
  • Poor protection from the elements in the grandstand.

Some of these criticisms are possibly harsh and contradictory. Racing is an outdoor sport, you can expect to get wet if you want see the horses in the parade ring.

On the other hand, where money’s spend (especially tax-payers money) an expectation of excellence follows. And this expectation of excellence isn’t met at the new Curragh. Be it the roof, be it the facilities inside, be it the poorly designed parade ring.

It’s also hard to imagine that the place could pack more than 15.000. It would be total carnage, with multiple bottlenecks and poor crowd flow. Even with only 10.000 onsite, these issues persist when previously at the old site 20.000 could fit relatively comfortably.

I want to be fair and balanced, and give credit to recent attempts to improve the experience. New marquee tents, food vans, a SPAR inside, more tables and seats. Admission has been made more affordable. So, something is done. Yet, it’s not enough to make you want to spend half a day there. It remains a cold, windy and rather uncomfortable place. Smaller, older tracks around the country do it much better.

Perhaps, for plenty of people the habit of going racing at the Curragh got broken during the redevelopment phase as well. Some never got back into the habit. Some returned once or twice and didn’t enjoy the experience. They’ve never been back.

There’s also a considerable lack of visibility inside the Kildare community. I live in Naas. It’s a 15min drive down the M7 for me. I can’t recall having seen any marketing for the Guineas Festival. Unless you’re a racing fan, you probably wouldn’t have known there’s two of the most important races in the Irish flat racing calendar taking place over the weekend.

Personally, I can’t offer many solutions. Saying that, it’s not my job. I only speak as a racing fan and from my personal experience. And that experience hasn’t been great.

I feel the bird has flown, and the glory days will never return. Flat racing has never been that popular in Ireland. Nonetheless, there shouldn’t be an obvious reason why attendances at the Curragh have dropped so dramatically since the redevelopment, when plenty other sports are thriving in the post-covid era.

There shouldn’t be one obvious reason. Yet there are multiple obvious reasons for the decline. And they are self-inflicted. The blame lies firmly with the racecourse management. It seems, as populist as this may sound: the track has been build for those in the posh seats, with us peasants (aka the average racegoer) forgotten.

Betting

Sunday Selections: 26th May 2024

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Winners are hard to get for quite a while now, so I was delighted to cheer home Candleford as he landed the Orby Stakes from the front in good style. A second winner for the week.

He was well supported, and I take some general positives from the fact that the majority of selections this week went off shorter SPs than the price I got.

Unfortunately Matilda Picotte ran her race in the paddock, and Unquestionable looked rather unimpressive prior to the race. Rosallion won the Irish 2000 Guineas, in the end, he prevailed in a thriller of a finish.

………

3.45 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas, 1m

It’s going to be interesting to see what impact the impending rain has on the ground, come 3.45pm at the Curragh, this afternoon. Currently still decent ground, the forecast looks grim.

No matter how much rain falls between now and then, the filly I have been waiting for to return this season won’t mind: Azada. One of the horses to follow this year, I was hoping we’d see her in a trial prior the Guineas.

Dermot Weld said as much, but at the same time he’s won this race with fillies on their seasonal debuts, and he seemed reasonably positive about her chances, when speaking earlier this week.

I take that as “good enough” to back her, especially at a big price that possibly/hopefully underestimates her true chance – if, indeed, ready to go. She’s significantly on the drift in the betting this morning, though. Not a good sign?

Azada was mightily impressive on debut in her sole career run toward the end of last year. At Leopardstown, in a 7 furlongs maiden in horrible ground, she accelerated in superb style and left the rest of the field standing.

She overcame signs of greenness and deep ground. Even though Dermot Weld said she may prefer decent ground, I suspect she will always be at her best with some juice in ground, given her pedigree shows tons of good soft ground form too.

That Leopardstown run was notably for how easily she kicked clear under a hands and heels ride. Doing that from the back of the field is never easy at Leopardstown. And she achieved a superb 82 debut speed rating for that performance.

The form hasn’t worked out, mind. But Azada looked all class and you would think she’s got tons of scope to improve as a 3-year-old.

Whether today will see her to best effect on her seasonal reappearance remains to be seen. Other rivals are race fit and I suspect, if she’s ridden with restraint, she will need plenty of luck from her #2 draw. She’s got pace around her, that’s positive. But if the pace tires at some point, she may be stuck on the rail.

It worth a risk, at a price that I would have expected to be half that. This renewal of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks competitive in nature, but there’re plenty of question marks about the main principles.

10pts win – Azada @ 10/1

……

3.10 Curragh: Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup, 1m 2.5f

Can you trust Auguste Rodin? His best is too good for the rivals he meets today. But he’s either hot or cold and you can’t be sure what you get, especially as he returns off a break today.

Aiden O’Brien trained horses often improve for their return run, and you would expect Auguste Rodin to fall into the same pattern, with bigger targets looming large on the horizon.

At given prices, I’m happy to take him on, for that reason alone. There are enough viable alternatives in this field, thankfully.

White Birch comes to mind, obviously. He’s won two in a row, has been much more professional, racing closer to the pace and that saw him land the Mooresbridge and Alleged Stakes over 10 furlongs in good style.

Despite the rain forecast, the ground may not turn soft enough for the grey to be seen to best effect, though.

Lumiere Rock loves this track, ran often well in hot races against her own sex last year and takes on the boys now. She may get it easy at the front of the race and may enjoy a tactical advantage for that reason alone.

Nonetheless, the filly has to step up significantly as her career-best speed ratings aren’t good enough to win a Group 1, let alone one against male opposition.

Mashoor also enjoys this course and distance. He was disappointing in his two runs this season, and will hope not too much rain will go into the ground. He may track the pace, though, could be in a prime position, and may outrun his big odds.

Saying that, I’m firmly in the Elegant Man camp today. The son of Arrogate hasn’t impressed on speed ratings yet, but I was seriously taken by his superb performance in the Easter Classic at Newcastle.

From the widest gate, he overcame a sluggish start, to lead a highly competitive field from the front and never looked in doubt in the closing stages, only late getting fully ridden out to the line.

He followed on from a visually impressive run at Dundalk in January and an excellent runner-up effort behind subsequent Sheema Classic winner Rebel’s Romance.

Elegant Man has ran only on the All-Weather so far. It remains to be seen how he can translate that form to turf. That’s the key question today. Reportedly he worked well on turf in training, but you never quite know what you get until a horses proves it in a race.

His pedigree doesn’t give too much clues either. Hence it’s a bit of a gamble. In saying that, if he can translate those brilliant sand performances to turf, he should be a huge runner today. We’ll know our fate early in the race, I reckon.

10pts win – Elegant Man @ 9/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 25th May 2024

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2.30 Curragh: Group 2 Greenland Stakes, 6f

It seems I’m too late to the party, given nearly all juice has been squeezed out of her price this morning, but I still feel there’s a tiny bit of value left in a race that probably will very much develop toward the stands rail.

With that in mind, Matilda Picotte is perfectly placed to utilise her excellent gate speed to grab the rail. The ground is slightly quicker than ideal, the drop in trip also a slight question mark. But the filly has shown she can handle both.

Her recent run in the Saudi Turf Sprint, then over 7 furlongs, came on quick ground. She stormed out of the widest gate to grab the lead after an early tussle with Art Power. That early speed will be of huge help today. She led until the final furlong after setting a hot pace, and it was no surprise, after those earlier exertions, to see her fade back to 5th.

I believe, given the hot pace to be expected today, with a handful of horses usually keen to get on with things, plus the nature of the uphill finish at the Curragh, her stamina will be a useful asset as well.

Given, Matilda Picotte has won over 6 furlongs, in actual fact she’s a course and distance winner, the concerns over ground and trip are much smaller than her overall profile would suggest.

10pts win – Matilda Picotte @ 13/2

…….

3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m 4f

Demot Weld’s filly Sumiha must have a big shout, having been seriously unfortunate not to win at Cork when last seen. That was only her second ever career run. Slight concerns remain over the much faster ground, and any improvement is very much factored into the price already.

Raise You loves this course and distance and has a decent shout if he can take another step forward after his fair return off a long break in the Alleged Stakes back in April. He’s a short price, too, given it still requires faith that he can get back to his form from two years ago.

British visitor Candleford has been friendless in the market but the William Haggas trained gelding makes plenty of appeal on his seasonal reappearance, despite having to give weight away.

For one, he goes well fresh. He also should be in a decent spot, not too far off the pace when it matters most. Also his 2023 form is clearly the strongest on offer, especially the runner-up performance at Kempton behind Bay Bridge rating highly, as he also achieved a 101 speed rating.

The 1m 4f trip on decent to fast ground should be ideal for Candleford to show his best side.

10pts win – Candleford @ 5/1

…….

3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m

Rosallion looks a fair favourite. He’s proven to get (just) home over a mile and handled faster ground on his excellent racecourse debut last summer.

A fine runner-up in the English 2000 Guineas, where he achieved – no surprise – a career-best on multiple fronts. For all that, a mile does seem to stretch his stamina to the absolute limits, and the stiffer finish at the Curragh will test it to the max.

With that in mind, plus the fact a best 98 speed rating after five career runs, makes him look somewhat vulnerable. He’s a price to take on… saying that, this Irish 2000 Guineas field looks weak.

Of course you must rate Aiden O’Brien’s chances in this race. He’ll have River Tiber ready for his seasonal reappearance. On pedigree, a mile won’t be an issue.

He’s got to take a significant step forward, though, after his form tailed off toward the end of his juvenile campaign, and he’s yet to run a speed rating that screams “superstar”.

Craven Staked winner and English Guineas 3rd Haatem loos a rock solid chance to be right there when it matters most. He looks quite exposed, though. How much more improvement is there to come?

The value for me appears to be with Unquestionable. Clearly things didn’t quite go to plan this year so far. Aiden O’Brien admitted as much. While there’s every chance the Wootton Bassett gelding will need the run, I’ve no doubt this won’t be merely a public gallop. This is the Guineas, after all.

His juvenile form stands up, given his strong runs in the first half of 2023, and subsequently his excellent second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere behind Rosallion, which warranted an upgrade, given he was closer to the pace and seriously keen.

Unquestionable proved his unquestionable talent at the Breeders Cup with the final race last year. He was always tracking the pace and showed an impressive turn of foot as he kicked clear in the last two furlongs.

With that in mind, fast ground today won’t worry him. In fact it may suit him more than others. He stays the trip, no issues there and is drawn right beside the likely pace in Take Me To Church.

10pts win – Unquestionable @ 9.5/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 24th May 2024

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4.30 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 5.5f

It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot two weeks ago coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually to lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, only 2 lengths beaten.

That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. If she can build on that run, she should have something in hand right now.

Dropping down in class, and slightly in trip to the 5.5f at Bath should suit, especially as she races against her own sex today. Her draw appears ideal, because having confirmed front-runner Connie’s Rose drawn right beside her will allow Starproof to sit on her tail, getting towed into the closing stages.

The filly is quite ground independent and won’t mind any potential soft patches left in the going description. The handicapper has been kind, having left her on the same 73 mark as she was allowed to race at Ascot. She won’t find many better opportunities to score.

10pts win – Starproof @ 4/1

…….

5.10 Goodwood: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

This doesn’t strike me as the strongest race for this class and that offers Safari Dream a chance to outrun his price, as he who moves up in grade after he caught the eye in his last two runs.

He couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground the last time at Salisbury, yet he travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on his penultimate start, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and can strike if things fall right.

The handicapper dropped him another pound, despite those two good runs, which could prove lenient. The better ground today should suit, and he’s ran a career-best speed rating over this course and distance twelve months ago.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 17/2

……..

7.20 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 1m

I was sweet on Blues Emperor in the Lincoln back in March. That day didn’t panned out the way it was hoped, as he was always in the wind from early on, helping to push hot pace that wasn’t sustainable.

Back from a break since then, he’s back at the Curragh, and over a course and distance he’s got a 2-1-1 record, on decent enough ground that’ll suit.

He should be at his prime this year, after a fruitful campaign in 2023 where he improved with nearly every run – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way that particular race panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

Today is a highly competitive contest, but one where there should be less competition for the pace than at Doncaster. It can prove crucial racing toward the front over this CD, so he may enjoy the run of the race today. Off a 96 mark, he could still have a bit more to offer as well.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 30th March 2024

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Super run by Misty Grey yesterday in the competitive All-Weather Sprint Handicap at Newcastle. He finished a gallant 2nd.

Ultimately beaten beaten by a stronger winner from off the pace. Nonetheless, a huge run given his 16/1 price and can’t ask for more.

Unfortunately Shoot To Kill missed the break and had a mountain to climb there and then – too much, but most likely he wouldn’t have had a chance with the impressive Cephalus in any case. Tempus run as the price suggested, sadly. Tracked the pace but wasn’t good enough on the day.

…….

4.40 Cork: Handicap, 5f

I have been weighing up all last night and this morning whether to get involved in this race. It’s competitive. Unexposed Goal Exceeded is potentially the “x-factor”, hard to gauge but possibly well-handicapped.

Two Stars and Stag Night meet once again after they locked horns a fortnight ago and also at the Curragh in their respective final runs last season.

Two Stars the likely pace angle in the race, this is where the pace will develop. That’s a positive for Stag Night, but also lightly raced Goal Exceeded.

I’m questioning whether this is the right trip for Goal Exceeded, though. Perhaps an additional furlong is much more likely to see him to best effect, for that he could be well-handicapped today on Handicap debut.

Nonetheless, as a 3-year-old against some seasoned sprinters, on deep ground, appears quite a stiff task, and with that in mind I find his price too short.

Two Stars remains quite unexposed, too, and has shown excellent early speed in all his runs since a slow start in his debut run. He ran to 82 on speed ratings in his final race last year at the Curragh. The handicapper has been lenient to leave his mark untouched after that as well as the recent third placed effort.

He’s an obvious chance today, but quite a short price, and may face some competition for the pace as well.

This his is competitive and the likes of Never Shout Never, mud lover Mickey The Steel, dangerously well-handicap Mehman or the mare Magical Vision can’t be ruled out.

What gets me always back to Stag Night is the fact this should turn today into a a testing enough 5 furlongs, with a couple in the field likely to keep Two Stars honest up front, which will be a huge help to his chances.

Stag night is still low mileage for a 6-year-old, he had issues with his feet, reportedly. Nonetheless, last season in his final two runs on deep ground over 5- and 6f he was able to produce significantly improvement performances.

An 84 speed rating for his Naas win, bettered by a 91 speed rating when a super 3rd in a tight finish at the Curragh. He clearly was well when he returned at the Curragh earlier this months too, as he looked good in the parade ring where I saw him prior to the race in flesh.

He ran really well and “won” the race on his side, but couldn’t live with the turn of foot of the eventual winner, who made a move away from the pace, though, and was possibly seen too late as well.

Stag Night is up a pound for the run, but intriguingly has the assistance of young apprentice Danny Power, who claims invaluable 10lbs. This is only his second ride under rules.

The young apprentice looked quite comfortable on his sole ride at Dundalk, though. I think this weight allowance can only be a help for Stag Night in the deep ground. He is an uncomplicated sort. Just ride him, push him out, and given he only has to follow the lead of Two Stars, who’s drawn right beside, this shouldn’t be too tricky.

Given the price has gone to a point where I feel comfortable to get involved in this competitive race, I’ll have the bet on Stag Night. Ideally he’d go up to 6 furlongs, I feel. But at around 5/1 now he’s more than a point bigger than I’d have him.

10pts win – Stag Night @ 5/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses to Follow 2024

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The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.

My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.

Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.

In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.

HTF 2023 Review:

The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.

Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.

English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.

………..

Anzac Day
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..

Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.

He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.

A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.

Azada
3yo filly – Dermot Weld

Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.

Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.

A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.

British Camp
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.

He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.

Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.

Galen
3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien

Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.

Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.

God’s Window
3yo colt – John Gosden

Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.

Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.

Grosvenor Square
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.

The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.

He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.

He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.

Henry Longfellow
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.

A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.

The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.

He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.

Inisherin
3yo colt – Kevin Ryan

Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.

Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.

Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.

One Look
3yo filly – Paul Twomey

Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.

She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.

Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.

Uluru
3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien

Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.

She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.

Equine Photography

Photos: Irish Flat Season Opener 2024

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Photo gallery of the 2024 start to the Irish flat season at the Curragh on St. Patrick’s Day bank holiday.

18th March 2024, Curragh Racecourse, Co, Kildare, Ireland

© Florian Christoph, 2024

Betting

Sunday Selections: 2nd July 2023

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3.00 Curragh: Premier Handicap, 5f

Competitive in nature as these sprint handicaps tend to be, there are about a handful – at most – handicapped to win. British raider Came From The Dark is definitely one of those.

He was a massive eyecatcher last time in the infamous Epsom Dash where he finished the fastest over the last three furlongs.

That day he had a lot to do after missing the break and getting pushed over to his right by a rival right after leaving the gate. Eventually he ran on incredibly strongly with a huge effort on the far side of the track.

That run confirmed the impression he gave at Newmarket before, where he also finished the best and was somewhat unfortunate finding himself behind horses at a crucial stage.

Clearly Came From The Dark is in sensational form. However, he didn’t get off to a good start the last two times now. Is this a new habit? A clear concern, as it would be game over here if he loses a lengths at the start.

On the other hand, the uphill finish over 5f at the Curragh should suit a lot and he is drawn right around a lot of pace to possibly tow him into the finish, where he needs possibly a bit of luck for the gap to open.

Off 89 he’s well-handicapped, no doubt. Ground, trip and track will suit.

10pts win – Came From The Dark @ 15/2

……

3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish Derby, 1m 4f

Auguste Rodin is the overwhelming favourite and there’s every reason to believe he can do the special Epsom & Curragh double today.

Too imposing was his performance last month in the English Derby, as he cruised into contention over two furlongs out and kicked clear off a very good colt in King Of Steel.

He ran home the fastest over the final three furlongs and did it easily. There’s no doubt he’s incredibly hard to beat. Perhaps he’s nearly unbeatable – as much the odds suggest.

Aiden O’Brien has assembled an armada of runners, probably to ensure a safe passage and solid pace.

Unfortunately the final field has somewhat cut up to the point where the Irish Derby becomes nearly a family affair for the O’Brien clan. In saying that, the two “foreigners” are of huge interest, and add spice to the race, nonetheless.

White Birch has proven himself to be a seriously talented colt. On speed figures his runner-up performance in the Dante rates actually a pound higher than Auguste Rodin’s Derby victory.

Different track, different trip, though. Nonetheless, the Ballysax winner caught the eye in the Dante and subsequently the Derby with the way he finished his races. Both times not ideally placed.

If he could start better, and doesn’t give himself too much to do early on, he’ll be closer at this more conventional track, that is the Curragh. The likely good pace and stiff finish should suit.

The other one is Sprewell, Jessica Harrington’s colt. A winner of a minor race at Naas on his seasonal debut, he showed signs of developing into a really good one in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.

He kicked nicely clear in the final furlong of the talented Up And Under, who is also here today, trained by Joseph O’Brien, and one who also could feature.

Sprewell, though, is the one I’m most interested in for win purposes against Auguste Rodin. The question then is, what are the reasons for him to find seven lengths today? That was the distance he found himself behind at Epsom, where he finished 4th.

The factors that could see him getting a lot closer this time are the track, the ground and the hope for natural improvement.

Epsom was only his fifth career start, but the first time going over the Derby trip. He looked still quite a bit keen and raw at various stages of the race.

Certainly he didn’t enjoy the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. He also had mitigating factors in the home straight for not finishing closer.

Sprewell found himself short of room at a crucial stage of the race over 2.5f out. He was ever so slightly hampered in the preceding furlong as well.

Wen he tried to go through a gap, splitting the middle of two rivals, he became severely unbalanced. It was impressive and the sign of serious talent that he found his momentum quickly back before his stamina ran out in the final furlong, though he still finished with the 4th fasted final furlong split, and 5th best over the last three furlongs, despite all the trouble.

The galloping Curragh should suit a lot more, so should the less fast ground. He may be ridden with a bit more restraint as well, and then slowly easing into contention. Whether he truly gets home over the Derby trip, up the hill, remains to be seen.

My feeling is 10 furlongs may turn out to be the optimum. On the other hand, in the Derby trial, on heavy ground, he was gaining the further they went in the closing stages.

The truth is most likely, Sprewell will find Auguste Rodin too good. At the given prices, I feel it’s worth to back Jessica Harrington’s horse, though, as there are legitimate reasons to believe he can get a whole lot closer. And this is racing, things can happen.

10ts win – Sprewell @ 9/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 29th May 2023

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No joy on the betting front on Saturday. Can’t fault the effort of any horse I backed. They all ran well, ultimately didn’t quite have the good fortune when needed in their races. Happens.

Regardless of the outcome of the Irish 2000 Guineas from a betting perspective, I still loved the day out at the Curragh on Saturday. My dad was with me, he’s over from Germany for a few days.

He’s no racing fan, but enjoyed it as well, and was certainly delighted to collect a few €€€ from his Each-Way punt on Hi Royal.

The Curragh can be a miserable place when the wind sweeds through it. On the other hand when the sun is out it can be a place of pure magic, as it was on Saturday.

Lovely vibe, happy people, great racing…. and a pint of Guineas for €5.90 is nearly a bargain these days. Do those in charge finally get the hang of things?

The Curragh is a lovely place to shoot racing as well. It’s one of the joys of Irish racing if your a photographer you get unparalleled access to the equine stars. Compare that to the UK where they take your camera away at the entrance….

Two other things I can’t leave unmentioned: The Grade 1 Daily News 2000 took place in South Africa on Saturday. My selection Cousin Casey got a bit of a rough race. I was left wondering “what if”.

Closer to the truth is, possibly, that brilliant winner See It Again was too strong in any case. He won it extremely well, no matter what. “Striker” once again pure class in the saddle. The 3-year-old will shoot to the top of the betting for the Durban July now.

The German 2000 Guineas takes place at Cologne this afternoon. This appears to be a poor edition. Two English raiders head the market and it’s fair to say they wouldn’t have the faintest of hopes to land a Group 1 in the UK or Ireland.

Sadly, the home team isn’t particularly strong. It’s stamina that German bred horses are known for, so this isn’t the biggest surprise. Nonetheless, if British 96 and 92 rated colts are expected to fight this out it’s simply not a good look.

………..

5.40 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 10f

Bollin Margaret looks a rock solid favourite having a good record over 10f on fast ground, having slipped to a good mark and having ran to a fine speed rating recently.

At the same time in over 1.5 years she never achieved a 60+ speed rating, and that makes her still somewhat vulnerable to something else in this field.

In truth, there’s not much in this field. But Streetscape is the lightly raced improver who could have too much to offer on his third handicap run, back on turf and most likely ideal fast ground.

He caught the eye last two times, his only runs in 2023, on the All-Weather, back in March.

On Handicap debut and his seasonal debut at Newcastle I liked the way he travelled when tracking the pace, as he made a nice move to challenged leaders to eventually hit the front soon after. he was gutsy all the way to the line but beaten by a winner and second from rear of the field who possessed a stronger turn of foot.

The next time at Southwell the slow pace didn’t suit him either. He as badly outpaced from three furlongs out but once again showed a superb attitude when he battled back to grab third on the line.

It may be that his optimum is a fast mile on a stiff track. However, on pedigree 10 furlongs seem a pretty realistic option. The way he finished his last two races gives plenty of hope, that’s for sure.

How much he has in hand remains to be seen. As he drops in grade as well, into 0-60, of his 59 mark, in these conditions, he should be a solid W ahead of the handicapper, I feel.

10pts win – Streetscape @ 11/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 27th May 2023

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Back-to-back winners: Ventura Express won his race at Pontefract quite comfortably. Everything worked to absolute perfection – that’s not always the case: superb ride, hugged the rail, saved ground, kicked on 2f out and game over.

He was well backed all day too, went off 7/2. So I got a great price, although a little lower than originally thought as I only realised in the morning my full stake wasn’t matched as initially thought it did. Topped up and ended up closer to 7s, which is still lovely.

On to Saturday: it’s Irish 2000 Guineas day. I love this day and will make may way down the N7 to the Curragh, of course. This is usually when Ireland is at its most beautiful – warm, and sunny, everything is blossoming. Plenty of hope is in the air right before the first Classic of the Irish flat season as well.

It’s also another Grade 1 day over in South Africa. One of the premier contests for 3-year-old middle-distance horses shapes as a cracker of a race (potential selection in the morning when there is a market for me to back, to be added here).

I also must say the amount of racing this Saturday – and quite frankly most of the days during the week as well – is simply overwhelming. I struggle to keep up and it takes a bit the joy out of it.

I love turf racing, but enjoy the somewhat quieter pace of the All-Weather season more, as sad as that sounds. The latest news from the reshaped fixture list in the UK doesn’t provide much hope that this is to change anytime soon.

………

2.12 Greyville: Grade 1 Daily News 2000, 1m 2f

A hot renewal of the key race for the middle-stance three-year-olds in South Africa. The right horses are here to the most part.

See It Again is a pretty short-priced favourite, and you can see why. He was a 40/1 shock winner in the Cape Derby and followed up nicely in the WSB Guineas earlier this month when he ran on well after getting badly outpaced over three furlongs out.

The step up to 2000m will surely suit and he’s clearly the one to beat, simply given the fact he beat Charles Dickens at Kenilworth, who’s the benchmark every three-year-old is measured against this year, and because he finished so strongly when last seen over a trip a bit on the sharp side.

But he’s a tricky horse as well. One who has to be ridden in a specific way. He wears blinkers for a reason and can race sluggishly. I wouldn’t want to trust him at short odds.

Without Question runs in the same colours and was a good third in the Derby, where he faltered late after pushing the pace. He went on to win a Grade 3 over a mile on his comeback run when last seen, doing so against older horses.

He’s clearly talented and may get the run of the race from close to the pace here.

Cousin Casey is probably the most interesting horse here. A son of 2013 Daily News winner Vercingetorix, he was a brilliant 2-year-old and has done well in his 3yo campaign as well, against seriously tough opposition.

After landing a Grade 2 over a mile on his seasonal reappearance he went on to ran a huge race as runner-up behind Charles Dickens in the Cape Guineas. That pushed him near the top of the market for South Africa’s Premier all-age open middle-distance Grade 1, the Met.

From a wide draw he was caught wide, was pulling hard without cover and eventually pulled his way to the front. He only went down late in the day behind the countries best horses, for a strong 5th place. A huge run.

He got a well-deserved break afterwards, before returning with a fine tune-up race at Greyville, before a solid 4th in the WSB Guineas behind Charles Dickens.

That day he made huge progress from the back of the field on the outside from 4f out. he clearly did too much there, going upside with Charles Dickens and fast finishing See It Again. He paid for those exertions, eventually.

Going up in trip isn’t a worry. He should stay the distance on pedigree and the Met run gives plenty of hope. However, he can pull hard as well, and that’s the main worry.

I believe he’s the best horse in the race, though, if he can get his act together. His Met run is clearly the strongest form in the race, this is his third run after a beak, the one he’s had as the target for a while, he should be at his peak now. With that in mind the odds are generous.

10pts win – Cousin Casey @ 4/1

……..

3.05 Curragh: Listed Orby Stakes, 1m4f

Sionnach Eile looked last season like one very much capable of stepping up listed level when he won back-to-back Handicaps in July. He had a long break since then, and with that in mind the recent Cork comeback run can be ignored.

Nonetheless, he travelled pretty well for a long time before getting pretty tired eventually. You would hope he strips fitter here, and one would think connections have had this contest in mind for a while.

He moves up in trip, which is sure to suit, given he won over twice over 1m 4f+, including the hot Guinness Handicap at Galway when last seen off 94.

That was a clear career-best effort as he achieved a superb 97 speed rating, which gives him an excellent chance in this type of race here, if he could run to the same level of form.

The pace could be muddling, but no bother, Sionnach Eile can move forward and could be hard to catch if allowed to stride on.

10pts win – Sionnach Eile @ 5/1

………

3.40 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, 1m

A sub-standard edition of the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. This seems to evolve around the British raiders for once because Aiden O’Brien’s horses are a surprisingly poor bunch, certainly judged on what they have done up until now.

Proud And Regal is the one exception, as he’s a Group 1 winner from his juvenile season. However, a mile on decent ground is a completely different test to a mile on heavy going in France at the end of a 2-year-old campaign.

Paddington is Ryan Moore’s choice. He won a Listed trial at Leopardstown after winning a hot Handicap on his seasonal comeback. He’s got potential, though, given he hasn’t run any significant speed rating yet, does appear to be well below Group 1 standard.

It’s fair to say Royal Scotsman enhanced his credentials in no uncertain terms in the English 2000 Guineas earlier this month. He ran on well for 3rd place despite showing early keenness, which can’t have helped.

He’s got a huge engine, as we knew from his excellent juvenile campaign as well. No doubt he does stay the trip and the slight uphill finish at the Curragh will be to his advantage.

For all that, he’s a short price, perhaps fairly so, but his tendency to pull hard is a question mark in a race where the pace may not be red hot.

The obvious for me, although I’m certainly biased as well, is Hi Royal. He was one of those 3-year-old colts I flagged in my 3yo to follow piece before the start of the season.

He certainly confirmed the promise shown as a juvenile when he finished a brilliant runner-up at Newmarket in the English 2000 Guineas. For the most part he even looked like the winner, until hanging a potential Classic success in the final furlong away.

Hi Royal has an engine, a turn of foot and does stay beyond a mile probably. He should enjoy the galloping Curragh and the uphill finish to the line.

Somewhat of a question mark is the likely fastish ground, though. The Guineas was on officially soft ground. His sole career victory came with plenty of cut in the ground.

What gives hope is his debut run, when an excellent third in a hot maiden on fast ground. However, he seems to hit the ground hard and the fact he is probably at his best once he moves up to 10 furlongs is a concern.

Nonetheless, he’s the most solid choice and slightly overpriced, given he has proven his class already, settled well, travelles well and has plenty of upside.

10pts win – Hi Royal @ 11/2

………

4.10 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This is a wide open contest on paper, but I feel Big R is potentially hard to beat if he acts on the fast ground.

He was a huge eyecatcher on his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut last time at Salisbury, and despite the massive effort, he has been eased by a pound in the meantime. That won’t make too much of a difference as he’s already extremely well-handicapped off 70, most likely.

At Salisbury he was at a disadvantage from the #8 gate right away. He was caught wide and without cover early on, before settling at the back of the field. hen then made rapid progress on outside from the halfway stage to challenge the leaders over 1f out, before getting tired and beaten by those with better draws and closer to the pace.

It rates a huge performance against the pace and track bias. He showed good early speed last year as well, suggesting sprinting is his game. He may stay 7f on pedigree, but 6f appears to be ideal.

Big R was a cheap yearling, so is not one who has tons of scope, probably. Nonetheless, judged on this most recent run he looks clearly better than a 69 Official Rating.

10pts win – Big R @ 4/1

………

4.55 Goodwood: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Huberts Dream looks dramatically overpriced if he’s good to go here. He’s got a good draw to attack the rail and stretch the field, while he may well enjoy the better ground which he didn’t get in those turf starts when expected to run well.

Certainly one can ignore the recent Chester run in deep ground from a #10 draw and he also lost a shoe. He ran with plenty of credit at Lingfield prior in a seriously competitive Handicap.

To continue to run over the minimum trip seems a good idea. He showed signs of severe keenness over 6 furlongs in the past, but at the same time showed that early speed is his biggest asset.

He won well on the All-Weather during the winter notching up a hat-trick of wins achieving multiple speed ratings in the 70s. He’s dangerous here if allowed to run on merit.

10pts win – Huberts Dream @ 22.5/1

…….