This is a brutal race quality wise. Gives the Daniel Kubler trained filly Chizz De Biz a tremendous chance to leave a recent disappointing run behind after she got off the mark here at Brighton so impressively in June.
That was over 6f in an equally quite poor contest. However, she showed excellent pace and won cosily in the end suggesting there is more to come. A drop to slightly shorter didn’t yield in improvement, however now stepping up to 7f only four pounds higher than her earlier success looks ideal.
Her pedigree offers hope to stay the extra mile. The way she ran up the hill the other day and the fact that fast ground will be a huge help mean she should enjoy this task going off the #1 draw as well, providing an opportunity to grab the rail being while being close to the pace.
Chizz De Biz is also the least exposed horse in the field who has achieved the highest lifetime time speed rating of anyone in the race also.
Made To Conquer did as his name promised: conquering the Durban July! Turned out pace wise and how the race could turn out tactically went as analysed in my race preview. What wasn’t forecasted, though, that stable mate Do It Again would come sweeping past my selection with half a furlong to go.
The pair came miles clear of the rest of the field. But no doubt, Do It Again was well on top in the end and a deserved winner of South Africa’s most prestigious race. There was no pace in the early stages whatsoever so jockey Grant Van Niekerk decided to go for a dramatic move when maneuvering race favourite African Night Sky from the back of the field to the lead halfway through the race.
Didn’t end well. The 3/1 chance faded into insignificance in the closing stages. No fairytale ending for Jeff Lloyd either. The retiring veteran jockey hit the post, but remains luckless in a bid to win the July.
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2.00 Ayr: Class 5 Novice Stakes, 6f
You can pick big holes into the three market leaders so it might be worth siding with the man who knows how to win these type of races: Mark Johnston. His charge Royal Big Night was well supported on his debut nine days ago but appeared plenty green enough when jumping left at the start and seemed clueless in the closing stages.
The way he faded in the final two furlongs is slightly worrying, but the positive early speed he showed soon after the start is enough for me to believe this lad can do much better with the run under his belt.
This colt is related to some nice dirt winners in the US, so the rattling fast ground will certainly to his liking. He has to improve from his first run, however dropping two classes from a class 3 York Novice race into this here seems on paper at least a bit easier.
He also gets a good deal of weight from those with winning form in the book. That’s an added bonus.
Selection:
10pts win – Royal Big Night @9/2 Sky
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5.55 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f
I find it noteworthy that jockey Kieren O’Neill makes the journey to Wolverhampton for his only ride on the entire day at the peak of the British flat season. That enhances the already strong case I feel able to be making for bottom weight Trinitas.
A tree-times raced maiden on his handicap debut, he did achieve little on pure merit of his results and ran according to his SP’s: without a chance. However, further analysis of his last two starts provide a different answer.
The Nathaniel colt did more than he should in the parts of both races burning a lot of fuel in what turned out be two pretty hot maiden contests. Though, he wasn’t there to win, only to gain experience. He should have plenty of it now plus showed glimpses of ability too.
A step up in trip to 12f is likely what he needs. So with that in mind, an opening mark off 64 could underestimate the ability ready to be unlocked in Trinitas. Going from pole position in stall 1 with he has every chance to make this a winning handicap debut.
Selection:
10pts win – Trinitas @ 9/1 Coral
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7.00 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 1m
Ripon and a biggish field over a mile – you got to need a bit of luck if you aren’t up with the pace. Hence my selection Al Ozzdi is risky. However, he is the only three year old in the race and can make his weight advantage count – the Simon Crisford charge is certainly handicapped to win.
Last time out at Windsor was a slight disappointment, given Al Ozzdi showed an awful lot of potential when finishing third in a hot Yarmouth maiden on his penultimate outing. Only 5th in the end, well beaten – not good. But there were reasons.
Windsor can be a tricky track for hold up horses and Al Ozzdi wasn’t the fastest out of the blocks to be closer to the pace than trailing. You got to get the breaks here and he didn’t. A wall of horses in front, when finally angled out and in the clear the bird was flown.
This still quite lightly raced lad has found an ideal opportunity to score. The long home straight should help jockey Paul Hanagan to move out in time this time.
This looks an ideal opportunity for handicap debutant Saroog to follow on from his excellent maiden win at Goodwood last month. He travelled strongly into the race and finished off a rival he had to give plenty of weight to who is a subsequent winner.
Saroog has fine form in his book with a couple of placed efforts earlier this year. A close runner-up behind Count Octave in April, who subsequently wasn’t disgraced in pattern races, showed there is potential.
An opening mark off 85 appears more than fair and leaves room for improvement. The trip and ground seems to suit. This lightly raced son of Nathanial could easily develop into a nice staying prospect.
Job jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle, Archimedes is here to win. Rattling fast ground is what he wants, the five year old also dropped to a dangerous mark, for the first time on turf below a 60 rating.
There are reasons for that, however with the jockey booking, conditions to suit and a track he has won at before, you got to hand Archimedes a cracking chance.
The caveat is the trip. Can he get home over an additional half furlong? It’s certainly worth a chance at given prices.
Pretty much all his life Field of Vision has been running over sprinting trips. Only twice did he venture beyond 6 furlongs, with limited success.
Nonetheless I feel he’s right in with a cracking chance in this 7f contest at Chepstow. One is that he’s dropping slowly but steadily to a really tasty mark. The second is that fast ground should help to go beyond his usual trips and there is also the fact that his pedigree offers a pretty good chance of getting a trip – in combination I think his two starts over 7f until now are a small enough sample size to rule out that he can’t be effective.
Field of Vision’s form is clearly on the upward while his ratings stay relatively static. In four turf starts he was twice in the money, unlucky not the get his head in front when beaten agonizingly close here at Chepstow last month. He followed up with a strong, albeit luckless run at Windsor, when he never got a chance with a wall of horses in front, yet finished strongly when a brief moment allowed him so.
With an excellent 5lb claiming apprentice in the saddle, a good looking handicap mark and a very winnable race Field of Vision appears a good bet.
Lightly raced Gather gives the impression of a filly with plenty more to offer. As an April foal she is likely to come into her own right now, and after showing excellent promise as juvenile in her final start in 2017 when 3rd in a red hot Kempton maiden, she followed on from there on her seasonal debut when running out a gutsy win over 10f at Goodwood.
That looks a fair performance, albeit more is required today, no doubt. She steps up to 12f for the first time which looks possible on pedigree. The quick surface is an unknown.
With an opening mark off 81 Gather could be undervalued judged on her last two performances. Wit that in mind, in this wide open contest I have her closer to the market leader.
Selection:
10pts win – Gather @ 7/2 VC
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3.35 Windsor: Class 3 Handicap, 1M 3F 99Y
An open and incredibly competitive little handicap, though few appear to be well handicapped. A fair case can be made for relatively lightly raced favourite Humble Rock. But he is short enough in the betting.
I can entertain the thought of Majeed to return to form, though. Anything close to what he ran to on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in a similar contest when runner-up should see him in with a big shout.
Now an eight year he isn’t the force of old, however of a mark off 94 he is dangerous in a contest like this. The fast ground is fine, the trip ideal and the fact he ran 14 times in 32 career starts to RPR’s higher than 94 means he is well capable of living up to his current mark.
Selection:
10pts win – Majeed @ 16/1 PP
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7.45 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
The only colt in the race Roundabout Magic has an excellent chance to continue his superb run of form. His latest run at Brighton was a slight disappointment compared to how well he performed in weeks before, however after pulling incredibly hard for half of the race his jockey didn’t beat him up in the closing stages. He still was less than 3 lengths beaten.
He was a bit unlucky twice before, at Lingfield on the AW in a hot class 4 contest when finishing super strongly after having his momentum coming to an abrupt end by a slowing horse in front.
Arguably a career best performance came on Lingfield’s 5f turf track five days earlier when again running into a bit of trouble but finishing with a burst of speed on the inside. He ran to a career best speed rating and RPR that day, which came on the back of a fine win at Brighton a fortnight ago.
Roundabout Magic is in superb form, he may hold little secrets from the handicapper, but judged by the last efforts, he may still overcome a career highest mark in a race that looks not too strong on paper.
13 year old Secret Asset has dropped to a very dangerous mark and finds himself in a pretty poor low grade contest despite showing here and there glimpses of retaining some sort of competitive form.
He clearly isn’t the force of the past, however now down a mark off 46 he looks ready to land a race with conditions in his favour. Four of his six career turf wins came on fast ground.
So, the fact he finds a fast surface today is a bonus. The jockey/trainer combo doesn’t look strong, nonetheless 5lb claim on top of the low mark may mean Secret Asset can outrun his price tag.
Selection:
10pts win – Secret Asset @ 15/1 MB
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4.45 Ayr: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 5f
He’s on the drift and that might be a sign in itself, still I fancy top weight An Fear Ciuin and put a speculative bet on him to shorten later on again. He really looks ready for a big one today.
Back on the flat, dropping into class 5 Handicap – the last time he found himself in this lowly class he won (over 2m) – and also down to his last winning mark.
He should be fit from hurdling after two fair efforts over two miles. The ground might be a bit faster than ideal, and this could well be a race to bring the mark further down. So be it…. An Fear Ciuin is way too big a price.
Selection:
10pts win – An Fear Ciuin @ 25/1 PP
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8.30 Windsor: Class 5 handicap, 1m 2f
Wide open Handicap for three year olds. Another rather speculative one for me here with handicap debutant Vlannon.
Three starts in maiden company in quick succession. He final one over 7f at Lingfield was the best of the lot. He battled hard in a fair race but clearly needs further.
His pedigree, at least on the dam side supports this. Vlannon is a half-brother to a couple of individuals who did there best over further and later over hurdles. His opening mark is fair, gives him a good chance to win a race as improvement is likely to come for the new trip.
Stall 2 at Chester over the minimum trip often leads to the golden highway. So it is a significant boost for Dahik to have start from the top draw. The gelding never lived up to the promise he showed when winning a Novice contest at Bath last year and has moved yards in the meantime.
You can’t say Dahik set the world alight in two starts for new trainer Michael Easterby, although it was at least a fair comeback run on his seasonal debut at Nottingham in early May.
Last time in a hot class 2 handicap he was out of his depth. Dropping back into class 4 while also relieved of a few more pounds off his handicap mark could help him to be competitive here in this race, though.
Ground should suit – his best performances cam on a fast surface. A low weight, a lowly mark off 76 and an eye-catching jockey booking as Phillip Makin rides Chester incredibly well in combination with the excellent draw might be enough to see Dahik run a massive race.
Bottom weight Kabrit looks to have got in lightly here. He’s got three runs under his belt, the two this season didn’t look to shabby. He was chasing a strong pace on either occasion, proving still a bit raw and green.
Likely to improve in handicaps, he remains with potential particularly of a lowly 65 handicap mark. I feel this opening rating does underestimate the ability of this strong Mastercraftsman colt.
Selection:
10pts win – Babrit@ 11/2 GB
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7.30 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Top weight Operative has been labeled an “unreliable type” by Timeform. I disagree. Operative has been half of his life starts in the money – 11 of 22 starts. That isn’t unreliable. That is rather reliable, in my book.
Truth is, the five-year old gelding’s form this year reads unreliable: 10-2-7, though it isn’t so much taken circumstances into account.
Operative had no chance on his seasonal debut at Nottingham; hampered at the start, wall of horses in front, hampered in the final furlong, yet wasn’t far away in the end. He ran a strong race finishing second subsequently here at Chepstow over 6f, bumping into a tremendously well handicapped winner.
It’s true, Operative hasn’t done anything over 7f yet. He was again well beaten two weeks ago over CD. That says he did so on rain softened ground. His other two starts over this trip give indication it may be too far. I still remain optimistic, given fast ground today can be a help and he looked like running on well on his penultimate start over a furlong shorter.
Operative also drops down to class 5 for the first time this season. He ran well in a better grade twice this season – this today is a much easier assignment. He may not see out the trip, and we can put that to bed at the end of this day; until then I believe firmly that Operative is tremendously overpriced.
Top Beak has dropped dramatically in his handicap mark over the last twelve months – for good reason. He still managed to finish 3rd of o a mark off 90 in April 2017 but his form deteriorated ever since.
He’s also a very infrequent winner, to say the least. Nonetheless there’s hope. I have been encouraged by Top Beak’s last two highly credible runs at Lingfield and Sandown. He ran well enough from the rear of the field to suggest with a little bit more help from the handicapper and the right conditions he can be bang there.
Today he finally gets fast ground again which looks ideal. He also dropped further, now on 62, with the additional bonus of 5lb claimed by excellent apprentice Paddy Bradley.
It’s a big field and he needs a bit of luck in these, but if Bradley can nurse Top Beak through it and deliver the gelding at the right time he has a big chance to finally get his head in front again.
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