Tag Archives: All-Weather

United Kingdom

Exciting Eagle Creek one for the Future

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Nice to see confidence justified – at last! I said it last night, the opening maiden of today’s Lingfield card unleash a potentially smart colt in the making. And so it was.

Favourite Eagle Creek (SP 9/4) didn’t make any mistake on his seasonal reappearance. He grabbed the lead soon after the start and never gave it away. He won with ease by six lengths, never touched.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni, who made the journey to Lingfield Park for this sole ride, was delighted afterwards:

“He enjoyed himself in front and picked up really well. He was always going to be a better horse as a three-year-old.”

The future looks bright for Eagle Creek now. How bright remains to be seen. But he looked physically improved, gave the impression of a strong and scopey colt. It clearly helps that he hails from a good family by Raven’s Pass out of listed placed Blue Angel and a half-brother to listed race- and multiple Meydan winner Viren’s Army.

What’s next? I’d say they step him up in class rapidly to find out how good he really is. He does not look like a handicapper but more like an individual with a future in some nice pattern races. Certainly one for the tracker, one way or the other.

Race Video – 2.00 Lingfield

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4.30 Catterick: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

It’s always difficult to make a decision if you fancy two horses in the same race, so do I here with Coquine, who seemingly finds her first real opportunity on turf after a fruitful winter. She could potentially remain well handicapped with blinkers fitted.

But tentatively I side with Lackaday who won this very race off 8lb higher last year. He was no chance given by the handicapper subsequently but has finally dropped down to a very handy mark again.

He changed yards in the meantime and ran extremely well on his reappearance over sharp 5f at Newcastle last month. He finished an excellent 3rd that day – a performance that suggests he finds back to his best form.

Selection:
10pts win – Lackaday @ 6/1 Betfair SB

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2.20 Nottingham: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

It’s only the second start for the filly Blitz since moving to the UK from Ireland where she showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. She finished a close second on her seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in February which was also her UK debut.

That day she tried to make all and set a good pace from the front but just got a bit tired in the end it seemed while also still showing signs of greenness at the start and turning around the final bend.

This form looks rock solid and a return to turf on a straight track with fast ground could see her putting her best foot forward. In similar conditions she went only half a lengths down in a Curragh maiden behind a subsequent Group 3 scorer last year.

Selection:
10pts win – Blitz @ 9/2 Bet365

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5.20 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

Outcrop, the son of Rock Of Gibraltar makes plenty of appeal on his Handicap debut over a trip more suitable than what he raced over in three maidens as a juvenile.

His opening mark looks potentially lenient given he already ran to a similar RPR on his final start last season over a trip likely to short. He looks one who’s sure to improve with age and experience too.

Lightly raced sons of ROG tend to improve dramatically over the 1m 2f trip and if that isn’t enough then trainer Hughie Morrison has a fine record at this course over the last number of years.

Selection:
10pts win – Outcrop @ 7/1 Betfair SB

Betting Talk

Wednesday Selections

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Three All-Weather meetings on a Wednesday – flat racing at its finest! Ah, well, not quite, I guess. But soon the proper racing on the green grass is back in all its richness. Until then we have to deal with what we got and that is low-class sand racing.

It’s still a surprisingly compelling day of racing with some interesting fields across the board at Southwell, Lingfield and Kempton. And while I try to stay away from these type of races as much as I can these days, I couldn’t help myself but find three horses to back:

2.30 Southwell

Comprise looks a fair favourite and is likely hard to beat if anywhere near full race fitness which looks assured with Spencer coming to Southwell for this single ride. But there is at least a small question mark on that front as well as whether the gelding has wintered well.

Hungarian Rhapsody will enjoy the step up in trip after running well the last too times when fancied in the betting. But newcomer Bowed Not Broken looks value at 11/2 in a race where only these three horses appear to be in with a realistic chance.

The daughter of classy sprinter Casper Netscher has the assistance of the excellent Martin Harley in the saddle, while the Burke yard goes strongly recently and did well in the past in these type of races here. It also looks significant that a hood is fitted for the first time.

Selection: 
10pts win – Bowed Not Broken @ 11/2 Sky

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3.50 Lingfield

Muthraab Aldaar has been treated leniently by the handicapper despite a massively eye-catching return after a seasonal break last month at Kempton. He broke very badly that day, was still last with two furlongs to go but made incredible headway marching through the whole field to finish what looked moments before an unlikely runner-up.

He should come on for the run and given he is down to a career lowest rating after having been put up way too high as a three year old after a maiden success he’s here a huge chance in my book.

The trip is a slight worry because he stays a good deal further and Lingfield is a speedy track, but with so many things on the plus side he looks a good thing at tasty odds.

Selection:
10 pts win – Muthraab Aldaar @ 5/1 PP

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6.55 Kempton

Those with race experience seem vulnerable so chance is taken with well bred newcomer Altyn Alqa. The filly favours well in the weights and has a fine draw to start off her career in a very winnable race.

The Cox yard didn’t have many runners lately but those send out ran extremely well. Furthermore Clieve Cox did well in these Kempton maidens and can get them ready for their debut Luke Morris in the saddle rides this track and trip quite well too.

Selection:
10pts win – Altyn Alqa @ 9/2 Bet365

Betting Talk

Monday Fancies – Kempton Park

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3.00 Kempton: Star Of The Stage @ 6/1 Bet365 – 10pts win

I think this horse has not seen to best effect yet since moving to his new yard and was minded on the last two occasions. Now a pound below his last winning mark when romping home over a mile at Lingfield last season he’s of interest. Cheek-pieces are back on – these were off the last three times.

A field that doesn’t appear to have to much pace may suit this lad allot given he has a fine draw and is usually at his best when ridden aggressively.

With Kirby in the saddle I expect a strong front-running ride tomorrow – he might be hard to peg back once let lose in front given he has stamina for further.

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5.00 Kempton: Light Of Air @ 7/1 Coral – 10pts win

Open race with a bit of pace in it. Bottom weight Light of Air with first time blinkers (on the flat) is an interesting contender, slightly overpriced. He’s yet to get off the mark but has been placed on his two starts on the All-Weather lately, both times he finished with plenty of credit.

He looked to win at Kempton when he came with a big run but lacked a bit of focus in the closing stages, whereas he looked again a bit awkward at Lingfield lto in the closing stages.

A mark of 70, blinkers and hopefully a decent pace should help massively and he has a prime chance in my book.

Racing Talk

Fastnet Rock the AW Monster?

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National Stud

198% – If you would have backed every daughter and son of Fastnet Rock at Wolverhampton and Newcastle this year, you’d have got this massive return on your investment!

Now, in fairness it has to be said the sample size for Newcastle is fairly small – eight runners, four winners – so maybe they are inflated and will even out over time.

However at Wolverhampton on the polytrack, over the last two seasons, Fastnet Rock offspring has also performed extremely well. Eleven from 49 horses won – a 22.4% strike rate and a 42.9% place rate for a near 110% ROI. Not bad, eh?

So what’s behind it? Well, an obvious thought is: could it have something to with the fact that these two courses are left-handed? Maybe, although if that is the case one would assume the success rate should be excellent at Southwell, Chelmsford and Lingfield too. So is it? Yes and no.

Fastnet Rock offspring doesn’t do badly at those tracks, particularly Southwell looks encouraging with a healthy 27.3% strike rate, though not substantially higher place rate (around 36%) from a limited sample size.

Lingfield and Chelmsford both are a good deal below the strike rate average of Newcastle & Wolverhampton but still healthy compared to the overall All-Weather average. Nonetheless they are posting a negative ROI, whereas Southwell, Newcastle and Wolverhampton show a massive return on investment if you would have backed every runner there.

There is only one right handed All-Weather track in the United Kingdom: Kempton. How does Fastnet Rock offspring perform there? Poor. In fact shockingly poor. Abysmal. Only one single horse from 34 runners could win and the place rate isn’t much better with 23.5% – the lowest of all All-Weather tracks for Fastnet Rock offspring!

Interestingly, comparing this with turf statistics, there appears to be no dramatic disparity between performances at left- and right handed tracks. The difference is neglectable, even if further broken down to flat or tight tracks, which may come closer to the nature of AW courses.

So it turns out this disparity between left- and right handed tracks only exists on the All-Weather. I could speculate why; maybe it’s indeed the special nature of flat tracks, with tight turns and short run-in and that Kempton stands out in that regard, given the longer home straight and it’s more galloping nature.

Now the sample sizes aren’t massive but they aren’t exactly small either. At least for Wolverhampton we can say with a bit of confidence that Fastnet Fasntet Rock’s performance is most likely legit.

What else to look out for? Well, focusing on Wolverhampton for Fastnet Rock, older horses in low grade Handicaps perform best – over 1m 4f these are perform exceptionally well, if the numbers are trusted. Spring and winter are the most profitable seasons.

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Friday Selections:

3.55 Ffos Las: Shongololo @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
4.30 Ffos las: Zoffanys Pride @14/1 Ladbrokes
5.05 Fos Las: Sun’aq @ 20/1 William Hill
7.35 Newcastle: Depth Charge @ 6/1 William Hill

Racing Talk

Stat of the Day – Thursday 25th August 2016

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

33.33 – the percentage of winners trainer James Tate had in lower grade handicaps at Wolverhampton this year!

In fact more than one half of all his starters have been placed in 2016; with the addition of Luke Morris in the saddle the success rate increases even more.

This is not a new trend, given that Tate has always been smart in identifying the right type of horse to exploit those uncompetitive races on the All-Weather during the summer months when there is so much racing going on elsewhere.

He’s doing this mainly with three year old’s in races against older horses where during the summer months the weight for age allowance provides its most substantial advantage for the younger horse against older, often exposed individuals.

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Thursday Selections:

Three days into the week and three winners richer! It’s been quite a week so far, so long may it last. Three selections today; most interesting James Tate’s runner in the penultimate race at Wolverhampton.

2.30 Musselburgh: Lil’s Affair @ 9/1 Bet365
6.45 Wolverhampton: Control Centre @ 16/1 Coral
8.45 Wolverhampton: Rocket Power @ 4/1 Bet365

Racing Talk

Stat of the Day

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373695-fastnet-rock

22 – If you would have backed every son and daughter of the great Fastnet Rock over the 12 furlong trip at Wolverhampton with one euro each this year, you’d have made a healthy profit of €22! That equates for an impressive 71% strike rate.

It’s not an overly massive sample size, nonetheless potentially significant, given 86% of his runners placed too.

Fastnet Rock offspring generally tends to perform extremely well on Wolverhampton’s tapeta surface, though the 1m 2f success rate is clearly eye-popping. So watch out for his runners.

Friday Selections:

7.50 Wolverhampton: Fastnet Blast @ 11/2 Skybet
8.50 Wolverhampton: Berkeley Vale @ 7/1 Bet365

Photo: The Australian
Betting Talk, United Kingdom

Thursday Selections

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An 8/1 winner, a second, a third and a fourth…. Wednesday wasn’t a bad day, though could easily have been a great one. Put Curriculum in your tracker. He could have finished mush closer than 4th and wasn’t killed with another day clearly looming large.

Also Fleeting Dream is rather obviously up to win a race sooner rather than later and got a not particularly well timed ride – though the handicapper may have seen the potential too by now.

So what’s on the menu today? Not much, I have to say. Two selections nonetheless, although not that confident ones.

7.30 Newcastle: Dream Team @ 20/1 Betfred

The odds-on favourite might be hard to beat but I take a chance on Michael Dods colt who did show little on his debut but now switches to the All-Weather which should very much suit on pedigree. Worth a chance today.

8.25 Sandown: Fidelma Moon @ 7/2 Coral

This horse is quite consistent, running well this year most of the time, without quite cracking it. Will go up in the weights in the future for a recent runner-up effort and should go close here today once more.

The trainer & jockey combo of Burke/Vaughan enjoys quite some success when they team up at Sandown and it looks significant that the young rider goes there for only this one ride.

The race looks open, with the three year old’s surely having a good crack at it, particularly feather weight Cooperess looks interesting, though didn’t look like winning in a similar race off an even lower weight the other day.

United Kingdom

Saturday Tips: All-Weather UK

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2.20 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

I expect a brisk pace here which should suit the short priced favourite. Hold Tight should definitely go well and won’t mind the drop in trip, but bottom weight Luis Vaz De Torres looks excellent value after an impressive performance lto.

He pulled extremely hard throughout the race in a slowly run affair which doesn’t suit him well, nonetheless he quickened nicely and looked good for more. The handicapper has been lenient, so this is a big opportunity to achieve a career best.

Luis Vaz De Torres @ 8/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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2.45 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 7f

No doubt, Lamar sets a very high standard and on ratings looks hard to beat. The drop to 7f isn’t a problem for the prolific mare and she is sure to run her race.

But I feel lightly raced My Call will give her plenty to think about it and might get the better thanks to receiving 3lb and further improvement very likely. She won really nicely when last seen, which was only her third start and while this is tougher, she is expected to have learned plenty and take another big step forward, particularly with the step up in trip sure to suit.

My Call @ 7/4 VC – 10pts Win

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3.20 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 10f

Quite an open race, albeit very competitive. The underestimated runner could be William Haggas inmate Our Channel. Not quite a straightforward individual, but surely talented, he impressed at his comeback run last month at Lingfield.

I expect him to come on quite a bit for that runner-up effort. He steps up to 10f now, a trip he has won at in the past – back in 2012 the Derby Trial Epsom, in fact. Off a mark off 95 he travels quite nicely into this race too.

Our Channel @ 6/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

South Africa

Sunday Greyville Tips

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2.15 Greyville: Mr 86 Handicap, 1.200m

With the scratching of Highway Explorer and Piano Man this Handicap is decimated by two of the more likelier sorts where now only three horses can be realistically have a chance to win, as long as they run to their true form.

The three year old Cutting Edge has an edge in the weights and should strip fitter today after a fine comeback run in December. He’s the highest rated individual in this race and with Delpech on board will be a major player.

That says I’m keen on De Kock’s Jayyed today. He’s coming off a half year long break, however seems best as a fresh horse and won a maiden plate last year after a similar lay-off over this 1.200m trip. The switch to polytrack should suit perfectly on pedigree, and after having to face top class opposition in graded company in all his last starts, this represents a much easier task.

There is the chance the run is only to sharpen him up and bigger targets may be ahead, over further distances as well. But with a talented apprentice on board who takes off valuable 2.5kg I feel Jayyed must have a serious say in the closing stages, as long as he doesn’t miss the break, something he did a couple of times last year.

Jayyed @ 11/2 VC – 5pts Win

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2.50 Greyville: MR 74 Handicap, 1000m

Favourite Hooponopono is way to short in my mind. He’s consistent but has to prove he’s capable of winning off his current rating.

A better alternative seems the one year younger All True Man, who has to some extend a similar profile, but is a much bigger price. If you forgive ATM his last performance which was too bad to be true, then you see an ultra consistent runner who is one from one over course and distance and who’s been knocking on the door in similar races lately.

Going from pole position today combined with the handy 2.5kg apprentice allowance of Tristan Godden could give him the edge in this contest.

All True Man @ 11/2 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Al Khan can land Suthwell Feature

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

1.40 Southwell: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

A quite intriguing contest with a handful of course and distance scorer. It’s easy to see why Westwood Hoe is well fancied though, given he overcame some trouble in a better class over CD three weeks ago. He’s certainly well treated off only 2lb higher today.

Certificate also scored when last time seen, then at Lingfield. He’s trying the fibresand for the first time and that is always a concern but if he handles it he must have a serious shot in this race.

Previous course and distance winners Philba and Showboating can’t be discounted. The former one in particular is progressive on the fibresand and has the advantage of a low weight.

No love in the betting for top weight Al Khan, although he’s also has been successful at Southwell in the past. However the gelding is 5lb above his last winning mark, but managed a head-beaten runner-up effort in a hot Ayr Handicap off his current rating back in September.

Since then Al Khan was largely a disappointment, result wise even though he was never far beaten. When last seen at Lingfield he finished well from an impossible position, suggesting he might be in better form than bare results suggest.

A return to the fibresand may well help him to turn things around. From a good draw he should be able to track the pace which I expect to be red hot, which should suit him perfectly.

Al Khan @ 12/1 William Hill – 5pts Win