Tag Archives: 2024

Betting

Friday Selections: 29th March 2024

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It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.

Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.

……..

2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.

The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.

The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.

He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.

Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.

Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.

No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.

That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.

He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.

But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.

Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.

Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1

……..

3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.

Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.

Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.

Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.

He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.

The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.

The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.

He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.

I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.

At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.

Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.

Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.

The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.

Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1

……..

4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.

Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.

He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.

However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.

Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.

The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.

There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.

He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.

I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.

10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 24th March 2024

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“Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.”

It’s what I wrote in my Lincoln preview and still didn’t back him, as Mr Professor ran away with the Lincoln at Doncaster.

My selection Blues Emperor was up with the pace but wasn’t advantaged by the direction of the wind, I think. He finished down the field. Think he remains one to keep any eye on.

I can live with it. It was a big price, I’d back him again at those odds, no doubt. I’m more annoyed with myself with those two seriously poor Friday selections. Anyway, move on, and let’s find a winner today….

………

3.40 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Intriguing contest because there is very little obvious pace in this race and because the betting is doing some funny things throughout this morning.

Last years winner of this very same race, Bucephalus, is one who can track a pace, and comes here in good form, off only 5lb higher than for that comfortable win twelve months ago.

Despite a prominent mentioning from Hugh Taylor, I don’t like him from a speed rating perspective and I am happy to go against him.

I feel those close to the top of the market are nothing more than fairly priced. Stressfree is unexposed and loves this ground and trip. He could be well placed, but has to prove he can do it in this class. Speed ratings leave a lot to be desired, for now.

Ensued ran well on the All-Weather since his return from Hong Kong. His speed rating suggest he’s normally not up to this class and an 80 mark is stiff enough.

The “x-factor” in this race clearly is Qitaal. He was badly on the drift this morning, but has been backed in again. Hence I jumped on board because he’s possibly the only runner in the field truly comfortable to lead.

The 5-year-old is also talented, seriously lightly raced for his age, and on a dangerous 77 handicap mark IF healthy.

He did well for Mark Johnston as a juvenile and fetched £220k at the horses in training sale back then. Things didn’t work out in Ireland where was seen only once in Listed class for Ken Condon.

Gelded since then, not seen ever since, now back with the Johnston’s in their ownership as well, it’s intriguing to see what Qitaal can do. It’s not unusual for Johnston horses setting the pace – no better man on board today than Joe Fanning too.

I’m sure they revert to front-running tactics as he did when landing a decent maiden at Nottingham, back in October 2021.

He has shown to handle soft ground as a 2-year-old. If ready to go, and the money suggests he is, I think there is every chance he’s way too well-handicapped in this field, especially if allowed a soft lead.

There’s every chance he’s never going to be horse he promised to be years ago, also. I’ll take the gamble today, given this race looks so open, especially at the price (seems like loads of money coming quickly, not sure how long the 6-7s hold) where the pace could be seriously muddy, this feels like a no-brainer to me.

10pts win – Qitaal @ 7/1 (SM, MB)

Betting

Lincoln Preview

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3.35 Doncaster: Lincoln Handicap, 1m

The addition of Chazzesmee adds significant intrigue to the race. He won the Irish Lincoln in brilliant style on Monday, and looked like a horse with a bit in hand.

He confirmed the promise from last season, especially when last seen back in July in a hot Premier Handicap at the Curragh where he was arguably unlucky not to get closer to the eventual winner, or in fact even win.

A 5lb penalty looks generous, given once the official handicapper takes his chance to reassess, it should be quite a bit more than that for this ever improving gelding.

He looks drawn possibly quite well – certainly more favourable, I believe, than current favourite Liberty Lane. The lower toward the middle numbers may well be favoured according how I read the pace map feel this race could develop from a pace perspective.

Chazzesmee may well be towed into the finish where he will enjoy the likely fast pace and showcase his ability to change gear even on this deeper groun.

The thing that puts me off him, beside the price that’s too short for me in such a competitive race, is the fact that he’s always enjoyed frequent breaks between his races. Back to back races in such short space of time is unchartered territory. Not a risk worth taking at 4/1 in my mind.

I quite like Liberty Lane. An unexposed but progressive handicapper. He could definitely improve for having been gelded. One can forgive the final run in 2023. Before that he achieved a career-best landing a good Doncaster Handicap, including a strong 92 speed rating.

At 9/2 one can make an argument that he’s even a fair price. But the draw is not ideal, I feel. Drawn in #20, he may not be ideally positioned in the closing stages or has to do a lot in the early stages to avoid getting trapped wide.

2022 winner Johan goes extremely well fresh. He won another valuable Handicap after a break last season, and is a key contender, although he must defy a 106 mark, which is not easy in such a competitive renewal of the Lincoln.

Mr Professor off 92 could be dangerous. He’ll love this ground and the likely fast pace. He’s one of the bigger prices that Intrigues me.

But the one I’m most interested in at what I feel appear quite generous prices around 20/1 on the exchanges, is for the Johnny Murtagh horse Blues Emperor.

Probably not the most talented individual in the field I think off 97 this improving gelding may have a bit more to offer, though.

He improved with nearly every run in 2023 – the only truly poor showing came in his final outing in 2023, at the end of a tough campaign, which was also Listed race at quirky Listowel, and quite odd the way it panned out.

Prior to that he finished a neck beaten runner-up in the Irish Cambridgeshire, ran with plenty of credit in a hot Galway Handicap, won on Irish Derby Day a competitive Premier Handicap and defied top-weight at Naas.

The 5-year-old gelding clearly acts on soft ground. He stays a mile. Although, the combination of a fast pace and deep ground will stretch his stamina to the limit.

On the other hand, his #10 draw offers every opportunity to be in a good spot, closer to the front of the pack. I suspect it might be difficult to come from off the pace here. He likes to lead but has shown that he can track a pace closely as well.

In any case Blues Emperor is a genuine horse with a great attitude. He’ll put his head down and will run his race more likely than not. That may or may not be good enough. But you’d think Johnny Murtagh will have the horse ready to go, given Blues Emperor also performed well as a fresh horse in the past.

10pts win – Blues Emperor @ 20/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses to Follow 2024

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The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.

My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.

Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.

In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.

HTF 2023 Review:

The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.

Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.

English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.

………..

Anzac Day
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..

Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.

He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.

A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.

Azada
3yo filly – Dermot Weld

Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.

Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.

A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.

British Camp
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.

He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.

Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.

Galen
3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien

Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.

Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.

God’s Window
3yo colt – John Gosden

Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.

Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.

Grosvenor Square
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.

The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.

He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.

He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.

Henry Longfellow
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.

A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.

The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.

He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.

Inisherin
3yo colt – Kevin Ryan

Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.

Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.

Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.

One Look
3yo filly – Paul Twomey

Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.

She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.

Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.

Uluru
3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien

Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.

She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.

Betting

Friday Selections: 22nd March 2024

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7.15 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

I’m more than happy to take on Glamourous Express who’s turned out under a penalty here after an impressive victory at Kempton last week.

Hugh Taylor seems sweet on this lad, and that’s something to be taken seriously. But off 67 today, over 6f, he’s vulnerable. He’s never ran a significant speed rating beyond the minimum trip to suggest he’s well-handicapped in these conditions.

Captain Vallo could be interesting if there’s a generous pace today. But better days may await for such scenario. Water Of Leith is one to fear in this grade. But at current prices I’ll take a punt on Dream Together off bottom weight.

This is his third run since coming back from a long enough break. He ran better than bare forms suggest in his two starts since then and showed a solid attitude, suggesting there’s life.

The pace scenario will suit today. He should be able to to just sit off The Gay Blade and hopefully can kick on from about 2f out. I can see a scenario play out where he could be hard to beg back with his low weight if he can get separation from the main pack.

Dream Together’s All-Weather record is poor. However, he ran 51 and 54 speed ratings last year over this course and distance. He’s allowed to run off 51 now, a career-lowest mark on sand.

That gives him every chance to outrun his price tag today, at the very least. He should be well placed when it matters most.

10pts win – Dream Together @ 10.5/1

…….

7.30 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m

Intriguing and rather competitive race. A bunch of these met a over the last weeks, hence plenty of collateral form exist, for what it’s worth.

I think not too many will be in this to win tonight, though. Shoot To Kill ran with plenty of promise on his debut for the McGuinness yard. He may find an easier race soon, is my feeling.

Rampage looks in good form and his finish here two weeks ago was noteworthy. He has a tough Irish Lincoln run in his legs, though.

Rockbury Lad impressed visually and on the clock over this CD two weeks ago. Betting suggests today isn’t his day.

Skontonovski will be in the mix, but doesn’t appear overly well-handicapped. Neither – certainly not over this trip -looks favourite Exquisite Acclaim, who is in strong form, but has to defy a high enough handicap mark as a result.

The standout for me in this field is the aptly named Not Forgotten. He caught the eye a number of the times this winter on the Dundalk polytrack.

He remains on the same 79 mark after a strong 3rd place effort two weeks ago over this course and distance.

As often before, he wasn’t the sharpest away from the gate but made rapid progress soon after, and that may cost on the day vital fuel that was missing in the final furlong.

The 4-year-old travelled notably well, though, and made smooth progress from 4f out. If only he could get out of the gates a tiny bit better and perhaps keep his focus in the closing stages.

Good news, the visor is on. That appears the right move and could help him to find the necessary couple of pounds improvement tonight. He’s generally still low enough mileage in handicaps to hope for a little bit better.

Off a 79 handicap mark there is plenty of room for one or two more wins in him, given his profile.

10pts win – Not Forgotten @ 4/1

Eyecatchers

Flat Eyecatchers 2024 #1

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Flat Eyecatchers is a list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on turf and sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

Flowering
04/03/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:

Tracked pace the setter early on, took him on in an uneconomical battle in the middle of the race. Tried to kick from 4f out but was already tired and eventually faded in the home straight.

Showed promise in two Handicaps prior. The form of all three runs this year appears solid and suggests she could be a bit better than the current mark, perhaps more so over 10 furlongs, given the twelve furlongs possibly stretch her stamina.

She’s lightly enough raced to believe there’s some improvement and races to be won in these lower grades.

Doctor Mozart
04/03/24 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

In a pace battle throughout and doing too much too soon. First three home all came from further back. Showed good attitude keeping on.

Confirmed impression from 19/02 where he didn’t get the ideal trip. Badly hampered next time out in a hot race when up with strong pace once again. Down 1lb below last winning mark now. Seriously interesting in a race where the pace is a little bit less hot than encountered lately.

Kessaar Power
05/03/25 – 6.30 Southwell:

Reared in stalls, then pushed forward quickly to lead and setting a taxing gallop. Never stood a chance to get home over this trip but kept on well for 3rd. Decent speed rating over an inadequate trip.

Saying that 7f on the sand could suit on a different day, though. Down to good mark but may drop a bit further before competitive. This run a clear sign of wellbeing, though.

Watermelon Sugar
06/03 – 5.30 Kempton:

Held up from widest draw, travelling widest of all giving ground away while setting fastest sectionals from five to three furlongs out. Dropped badly away in the closing stages.

Showed enough enthusiasm to suggest he could get back to form at some point after a long break. Interesting for this yard/owners. No surprise to see a vastly improved horse in a couple of runs. The betting will provide clues.

Ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings in the past. Further help from the handicapper and an easier race on the AW will enhance his chances.

Bora Bora
06/03/24 – 6.00 Kempton:

Bit awkward away from the gate, tracked the pace rather keenly after the first furlong. Travelled well enough into the home straight but lacked the gears. Still finished with good attitude in hot contest.

Ran 68 speed rating, matching a surprise eye-catching 3rd place at big odds and 69 speed rating at Chelmsford before. On a good mark and may soon find an easier race over 6f but possibly is better suited to 7-8f as past form indicates. Clearly in form and well-handicapped.

Maybe one for early turf races too. Had limited opportunities there but yard in these colours when owned by Butler tends to do much better on turf too.

Chico Dulce
06/03/24 – 7.00 Kempton:

Made most of low draw to find a perfect spot on the rails, tracking the pace. Good progress between horses when slightly angled out over 2f out, before not able to match the pace of the first three. Ran good 53 speed rating in a hot race.

Will be able to drop into easier race now. Still low mileage and could be ahead of his mark over this sort of trip if dropped to 0-55. Noteworthy run lto too. Notably the change of tactics here too.

Walking In The Clouds
07/03/24 – 2.45 Lingfield:

Widest draw, moved forward and travelled always keen on the outside of the pack. Attempted to make an effort around the home bend but unsurprisingly tired badly.

Will come down to a good mark now. Ran to competitive speed ratings on the All-Weather last year. Best over 6f at Southwell, so one to keep an eye on for that.

Dream Together
07/03/24 – 8.00 Newcastle:

Grabbed the lead to set a somewhat muddling pace. Nonetheless showed an improved attitude and ability to quicken. Did well to stay in the mix for as long as he did.

This was a significant drop in class but also only 2nd run off a long break. Improved performance and he looks ready soon if back on turf. Although, needs fast ground.

Dandys Derriere
08/03/24 – 5.30 Newcastle:

Tracked pace racing more toward the far side. Off the bridle 2f out but kept going nicely without being completely hammered in the final furlong when it became clear a gallant 3rd was the best possible result.

Big run, matched handicap mark on speed ratings. Looks improved lately since wind op and break with four good runs under his belt.

Overall record wouldn’t suggest there’s more to come but this was a seriously deep race. If he finds a slightly easier race, quality wise or drop to 0-68, he could be good enough with a favoured pace scenario to win. Deserves a chance and could be underestimated.

Secret Road
08/03/24 – 5.30 Newcastle:

Dwelt, squeezed out soon after. Not in the best position 2f out. Switched and finished much the strongest in the final furlong. Achieved strong 63 speed rating, in line with current rating.

Down another pound since then, now on his last winning mark. Won in better class this winter over the CD. Looks ready for a big run and usually much closer ridden to the pace as well.

Novak
08/03/24 – 6.00 Newcastle:

Slowly away, in rear having plenty to do over 2f out before urged to move and responded seriously well in the last two furlongs without an overly hard ride.

Clearly returning back to form and on an intriguing mark. Struggles to win on the sand but the green lush grass isn’t far away and should be then in a position to be seriously competitive over 6-7f.

Hence, it’s best to ignore his subsequent start over 7f at Newcastle off 68 when last of ten after dwelling once again.

Not Forgotten
08/03/24 – 7.15 Dundalk:

Missed the break ever so slightly. Made up ground on the inside rapidly, though, but perhaps this early mishap cost him in a tight finish where he couldn’t quite find the kick needed to win in the final furlong.

He travelled smoothly into entering the home straight and this was a competitive heat. Still low mileage enough to believe he could find some improvement. Handicapper has left him untouched.

Same level of form will see him go close in these races in any case. Won quite taking this winter over course and distance as well.

Eccentric
09/03/24 – 6.40 Wolverhampton:

Soon led and set strong gallop. Clear by a couple of lengths. Was reeled in by stalker but fought gamely all the way to the line. Superb run and achieved a whopping 72 speed rating.

Clearly ahead of his mark as run 57 twice before. A mile seems the limit. Still a maiden but seems to finally get the hang of the game. May be too obvious and a short price next time.

Rock Opera
10/03/24 – 4.50 Southwell:

Widest draw, dropped in trailing in last place. Plenty do over 3f out but made superb progress from 4f out all the way to the final furlong, backed up visually any by sectionals, before stamina ran out.

Highly competitive race, over a trip likely too far. A drop to 6f will see him competitive. Any additional help from the handicapper that allows a slight ease in race class will be of benefit. Ran well all winter, including lto in strong 0-85. Won twice in easier races over 6f.

Not quite convinced on speed ratings yet but suspicion is in right conditions he can deliver.

Gobi Sunset
12/03/24 – 8.30 Southwell:

Widest draw, quickly moved forward and grabbed the lead, although always closely followed. Did a lot in the first half of the race and performance warrants upgrade staying in the mix for so long.

Winner was in superb form, which gives the form credibility. Down to last winning mark. Clearly in strong form.

Can go well on All-Weather right now but would be even more intriguing back on turf soon, on decent ground.

First three horses
13/03/24 – 5.20 Kempton:

Seriously interesting Novice Stakes. Strong speed ratings produced and first three home could turn out to be smart prospects to follow for the season, potentially.

The winner British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders, finished off nicely under light enough ride to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s. Very well bred, related to smart individuals. Should be capable of getting 1m 4f but a fast 10 furlongs should also suit.

Runner-up Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates either, but soon tracked the pace and travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out.

All out to the line, he wasn’t good enough to beat the winner, but showed a likeable attitude putting his head down and answering ever call. Won well on debut last year and is a son of smart Imperial Charm. 10 furlongs may be his ideal trip.

Third placed Tribal Star started well, better than in his two prior career runs. Made all and kicked nicely from 3f out. He was beaten by better horses but could be potentially underestimated wherever he goes next.

Impressed on debut last year with a fine 79 speed rating runner-up performance despite missing the break. Followed up with another solid run before the end of the year and showed a nice attitude in this race.

A mark in the mid-80’s could be underestimate him, especially if he steps up further in trip, judged on pedigree.

Jungle Charm
14/03/23 – 6.15 Southwell:

Widest draw, rapidly moved forward to just grab the lead entering the home turn. The damage was done at that point, but did well to stay in the action for a long time.

Should be solid form. Could unlock improvement for experience. Also not impossible to step up to 7f. A slightly less competitive race should see her really well placed to win another race.

Fine Wine
15/03/24 – 6.20 Newcastle:

Off to a flying start, set a seriously fast pace early on. Noteworthy how long he stayed in front. Highly competitive race as well. Must have regained some good form, second off a break.

Should drop further in the weights, and interesting if he returns at Southwell over the minimum trip, ideally in an easier race. Not won in a while but over that CD always dangerous.

Equine Photography

Photos: Irish Flat Season Opener 2024

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Photo gallery of the 2024 start to the Irish flat season at the Curragh on St. Patrick’s Day bank holiday.

18th March 2024, Curragh Racecourse, Co, Kildare, Ireland

© Florian Christoph, 2024

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Gold Cup Preview

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Twelve months ago I was very much in camp Bravemansgame and adamant that Galopin Des Champs isn’t nowhere near as good as the hype surrounding him.

In 2024 I’m no longer in camp Bravemansgame. It’s obvious by now that he’s not the same horse that finished a brilliant runner-up last year. He could still run well, but he’ll have to improve on anything he’s shown in three starts this season so far, to be in with a realistic shout to win the race – which looks a deeper renewal, too.

Galopin Des Champs? Can’t have him, once again. Races aren’t run and won on spreadsheets. But the fact remains the reigning champion has rarely convinced on speed ratings, with the Gold Cup a significant outlier across 17 career runs in my book.

Saying that, if taken last years Gold Cup victory at face value, the 7-year old gelding appears even more unbeatable a year later, especially after two visually impressive wins in his last two starts. But is he?

He was beaten twice after the Gold Cup and looked a mere mortal, unlike previously. The two subsequent visually stunning performances came in races that were run to suit him perfectly, I believe. Based on speed ratings they haven’t been impressive at all, though.

I’m left with the impression that a strongly run Gold Cup, on testing ground, will see Galopin Des Champs vulnerable to a stronger stayer. This scenario may play out this Friday. If he’s ridden handily, as he was the last few times, close to what could be a pretty good pace, on soft enough ground, he could burn through his energy reserves earlier than expected.

That poses the question: who’s the strong stayer good enough to beat the red hot favourite?

The ground may well have turned against Hewick. He may not even run, if trainer Hanlon is following through on his words leading up to the Festival. But I’m not sure he’d be good enough to win, in any case.

Corach Rambler, in contrast, is sure to run and to finish strongly. The Grand National hero and multiple course winner should have a proper shout, I reckon. The race could pan out perfectly for the 10-year-old.

It’s hard not be drawn to his sensational victories in the Ultima Chase, especially given the way he’s done it and the depth of the 2023 renewal.

He may need to improve a bit, though, given this is the classiest race he ever contested. Not impossible that he can raise his game in these circumstances.

But he’s a 10-year-old. He’s not exactly unexposed. How much more improvement is there to come?

I’m still trying to work out L’homme Presse. Undoubtably a talented individual, threatened to progress to the level required to be considered a proper Gold Cup horse. He’s got course form, and looked strong over shorter 2m 4f on his reappearance. Not so good the next time and I remain not fully convinced that he’s quite good enough in this grade.

Fastorslow should be the key rival to Galopin Des Champs, given he beat him twice at Punchestown in the last 12 months. However: those wins came in different circumstances.

Punchestown in April, at the end of the season, over 3 miles on yielding ground, and 2m 3.5f in the John Durkan at the start of a season, are hardly comparable to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in my mind.

The supposedly “natural order” was assumed in the Irish Gold Cup in February this year. Fastorslow jumped well and ran an excellent race, but was unable to quicken and follow Galopin Des Champs’ acceleration, ultimately.

It’s clearly possible that the Gold Cup trip in combination with a good pace can bring out additional improvement. For all that, on speed ratings Fastorslow hasn’t convinced yet, and all those points combined make him a short enough price.

Price is everything: by pure process of elimination I’ve come to the final conclusion there’s only horse offering value in the betting and upside form wise.

That one horse is Gerri Colombe. The eight-year-old gelding, trained by Gordon Elliott, remains low mileage and has a strong 9-7-2 record under rules. He was only beaten at the Festival last year and when last seen in the Savills Chase.

Hitting a flat spot before the run-in cost him the race in the Brown Advisory twelve months ago. He stayed on incredibly strongly and one or two strides after the line hit the front. Would, could, should….

But it’s clear the step up to the Gold Cup distance will suit this strong stayer tremendously. That he can finish with zest and do it in a Grade 1 was evident when he won the Champion Chase at Down Royal thanks to an incredibly gutsy performance.

I’m prepared to forgive the below-par Leopardstown run, when runner-up behind GDC in his latest start. Something looked amiss that day.

If one is prepared to ignore that run, and believes he’ll have benefitted from a break since then – which his record fresh indicates – it’s hard to look past Gerri Colombe at the current prices. He’s got to improve, but has the profile of a horse who’s capable of doing so, especially with conditions most likely to suit.

10pts win – Gerri Colombe @ 10.5/1

Edit: I should have checked the market before sending this post. Having written it earlier today and having backed Gerry Colombe in the morning I missed that Hewick is out and the market reacted. GC is now about 8/1 (9.4 on some exchanges).

Still a more than fair price in my view, as I maintain he remains one of the prime contenders in the race. Though, I’m always aiming for transparency, so just thought to make this clear when having quoted a price in my preview that’s not a true reflection at his point any longer.

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham 2024: Tuesday Selections

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3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

The race hasn’t been blown wide open with the absence of Constitution Hill. Instead State Man has simply replaced the champion as the new red hot favourite.

State Man is now as short as 1/3 with the majority of bookies. Is that a slight overreaction to the supposed fact that there’s not (even potentially) meaningful opposition to the reigning Irish Champion hurdler?

No question, State Man is a seriously talented AND consistent horse. Unbeaten for two years – with the exception of a highly credible runner-up performance in the 2023 Champion Hurdle.

Trained by Willie Mullins, of course the 7-year-old gelding is the likeliest winner. Yet, there’re a couple of reasons that could spoil the Mullins party on Tuesday, at least in the Champion Hurdle:

State Man hasn’t quite wowed me yet on speed ratings. His two Cheltenham performances are good, and clearly the success in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown rates strongly as well, also on the clock.

Perhaps, trying to find holes in the form, it’s nitpicking, but he may have benefited from circumstances in those races, and the overbearing feeling for me remains that the vast majority of his performances don’t scream “unbeatable”, like a 1/3 shot would suggest.

The pace in the Champion Hurdle will be interesting to see how it develops. State Man may have to do the “donkey work” for himself. He usually races right up there and has made the running in the past. Hence this isn’t a negative per se. But it may offer some others to stalk and pounce in his shadow for a turn of foot – because this could easily develop into a sprint finish.

Of course all that only matters if there’s any meaningful opposition. With that in mind, I think there could be two horses offering enough upside at this point of their careers to hope that they can make this a race for State Man.

Irish Point is an intriguing runner. The drop in trip may not be a problem if the ground remains soft, though the potential lack of pace is a concern. Perhaps that could temp connections to deploy front-running tactics?

There were occasions when Irish Point made all, notably when he landed a Grade 3 as a Novice last year at Naas over 2 miles.

The Gordon Elliott trained gelding seems as rock solid an each-way shout as you could find, if eight runners go to post. He should be a bit shorter, in my book, than the current prices.

The one I’m most intrigued by is Nicky Henderson trained Iberico Lord. Supplemented at the cost of £18k, he’s no Constitution Hill, but certainly a promising horse on an upward trajectory.

Ground is key for the 6-year-old gelding: it should remain soft enough for him to be seen to best effect on Tuesday, given the current weather forecast and latest going readings.

Iberico Lord remains low mileage with plenty of upside: 7-3-1 over hurdles, and 2/3 this season – a lacklustre effort in December had been put firmly into the rear mirror thanks to a big performance in the Newbury Betfair Hurdle last month.

That was only a Grade 3, and he’s got to step up significantly to have a real chance in a Champion Hurdle. Nonetheless, that level of performance puts him right in the picture here IF he can continue to improve.

The way he quickened at Newbury from three out was seriously impressive, in my view. He did it easily enough in the end. That form looks strong, franked through some of those behind in the Imperial Cup last weekend.

Another positive can be taken from his course and distance win back in November. He clearly relished the hill that day.

Stable form is an obvious concern. Nicky Henderson’s loss of form, and the issues with his stable star, have been widely documented. In contrast Willie Mullins seems to to win everything these days. State Man will be 100% ready. Let’s hope Iberico Lord is ready to rock as well.

Even without the stable form question to be answered, Iberico Lord has to improve a whopping 26lb on Official Ratings. Although, with natural progression that isn’t impossible.

This is going to be his first crack at Grade 1 level. And on speed ratings things look quite a bit closer. Therefore, a gap of 1.37 to 14.5 seems huge…. and too big.

10pts win – 13.5/1

……

4.50: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, 2m½f

As the nature of this race goes, it’s wide open. A case can be made for plenty to be in with a chance, and/or somewhat hidden to protect their mark in the past just waiting for a looseningof the handbrake.

This may be one where the home team has a chance, but the away side could have the edge once more.

Joseph O’Brien’s Lark In The Mornin makes plenty of appeal – surely he’s got tons of unseen potential to offer, waiting to be unleashed on Tuesday. I’m not fond off the price, though.

The De Bromhead yard seems to hit some form, finally. The lightly raced filly Nara is an intriguing runner if she can settle in the hood. She looks a free sort and a buzzing Cheltenham remains a worry.

The market hasn’t missed Milan Tino, who looks on a decent opening mark, neither does the market takes any chances with top-rated Liari and Ndaawi.

One I’m interested in, but thought the price may go the wrong way for me, has been available at surprisingly generous prices this afternoon, though: Martin Brassil trained Ose Partir could be seriously dangerous off 126 on his handicap debut.

The bare form this year reads quite poorly on the surface. However, there’s more to it than naked numbers. The French recruit was keen in his first starts and raced in hot waters lately.

This is perhaps easier than the Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He jumped alright for most of the race, made a bit of progress from the rear of the field from four out before fading away, without getting an overly hard ride.

Ose Partir seemed to settle better and travelled well enough. I quite liked his run over Christmas as well where he made even more eye-catching progress toward the backend of the race.

He was a promising three-year old on the flat in France before switching to the Brassil yard. A winner on his racecourse debut, and fine second in a subsequent conditions race behind a winner who locked horns with Big Rock and Ace Impact subsequently.

His Irish debut was eye-catching too, as he was quite keen and was a bit unfortunate in the closing stages, finishing a gallant runner-up without being asked for everything.

In any case, Ose Partir is one to keep an eye on even if he finds this contest too hot in the end. If he’s ridden off the pace he’ll need some luck too. But the likely rattling pace and big field could help him to settle and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a significantly improved performance.

10pts win – Ose Partir @ 15.5/1