Tag Archives: 2024

Betting

Sunday Selections: 16th June 2024

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2.10 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Albeseeingyer caught the eye last time at Beverley on her seasonal reappearance. She was keen to get on with things early on, before falling a little back to chase the pace in third, travelling powerfully into the home straight.

She faded in the final furlong, but was probably entitled to so, given a combination of “needed the run”, half a furlong too far in soft ground and the early exertions.

The race should put her right and she can race off the same mark today. Progressive the last two season, she may not have reached her ceiling. This looks a winnable contest as well.

She loves the 7 furlongs trip, is a course and distance winner and acts on this type of ground as well. I hope they ride her with positive tactics today in a race that lacks a clear pace setter possibly. She can do that and could be hard to beat in that case.

10pts win – Albeseeingyer @ 4/1

……..

5.40 Doncaster: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Showboated looks absolutely primed to win one of these low-grade sprint handicaps and could have found an ideal opportunity, for once. He threatened a couple of times this year but today could be his day.

He caught the eye in all four starts this year, for various reasons. Especially his two most recent performances gave me finally the impression he’s more than ready to win.

At Ayr he bumped into a seriously well-handicapped winner after chasing the pace without cover for most of the race and he showed a great attitude to battle hard to the line, only late denied a first career win.

He was certainly unfortunate last time at Redcar. He had to settle off the pace, given the race developed all on the far side, but he travelled strongly in the closing stages, just to be denied for space at a crucial stage. He finished well, but a clear passage a bit earlier and he’ll get much closer.

Having a strong jockey in the saddle should help too. He needs a bit of pushing and it can’t be a coincidence that Ayr was his career-best performance, also on speed ratings, when Conor Beasley was in the saddle.

Faye McManoman is a solid, no question, but Rowan Scott is an upgrade, strengths wise, in my unqualified view.

My concern is a tactical one. I hope they don’t settle too far off the pace, and instead move forward, to chase it, like at Ayr. Otherwise, he could easily find himself in a pocket once again where he gets out too late.

10pts win – Showboated @ 4/1

………

5.45 Thirsk: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

This is super competitive and probably I shouldn’t get involved, but I can’t leave Jer Batt unbacked at a big price with conditions bordering on perfect for the progressive gelding today.

I loves hi comeback run last month at Doncaster. He travelled strongly as part of a duo leading the field and only got tired in the final furlong to fade back for 4th.

He should improve for the run under his belt and comes here as a still somewhat unexposed sort. He improved nicely last season, and his form when soft appears in the going description is strong, since he moved to the UK.

An impressive winner at Musselburgh on good to soft, his subsequent Chester 2nd was an epic performance -not missed by the handicapper, mind.

One can forgive him the poor showing at Ascot on fast ground when last seen in 2023. He had a long break, and with that in mind his Doncaster performance is worthy of an upgrade.

Thirsk ground is currently good to soft and should stay that way with showers on their way. Any more rain will be better for Jer Batt, of course.

10pts win – Jer Batt @ 13/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 15th June 2024

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2.40 Sandown: Listed Scurry Stakes, 5f

It’s worth giving Dawn Charger another chance, especially today in different circumstances than the last two times where she faded badly.

I don’t think soft ground is a must and her previous form tells as much. A drop to the minimum trip looks needed after she failed to get home over 6 furlongs the last couple of times, albeit showing good early speed.

That early speed could be ideally used today as she has a fine draw to attack the race from and the pace map shapes favourable for her. I thought the way she started quickly and with plenty of speed at Newbury last month in a hot race showed there’s still enough ability, also now as a 3-year-old.

Dawn Charger has to give some weight away but she may well be able to do so as the class act, potentially. This race looks easier than the last two Listed races she contested in as well.

She was impressive as a juvenile landing a Group 3 and getting close to land a Group 2 also. That also achieve her a 92 speed rating – the best in this field.

10pts win – Dawn Charger @ 9/1 (SM)

……..

3.15 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

I’m not sure what the reason is for Star Style drifting out rather dramatically this morning, from 4’s all the way out to getting 9s matched on Exchanges. She certainly is a price I love to back now, no matter what.

The risk aside that there may well be a reason for the price drift, the Richard Hannon trained filly looked ultra-impressive on debut at Newbury in April. She torn the field apart making all from the front setting a hot pace.

Rewarded with a superb 84 speed rating for that debut performance, suggested the daughter of Zoustar could be Group class winner in the making. The form didn’t work out well, but the way she did it, was what mattered more.

She went right to Newmarket for the Guineas but was always more likely not to stay a mile. And so it happened, as she raced too the front and set hot fractions, eventually fading to to finish a tired 15th of 16 runners.

Star Style drops back to 7 furlongs today, though she may even be quite effective over 6 furlongs. Her mark of 86 looks possibly underestimating her true potential. She certainly looked a much better horse on debut.

Saying that, there is pace competition here today. She won’t have it all her way from the front. Though, that may help her to settle, at least. One of the likely pace rivals is a NR as well. In addition to that, a good low draw will clearly help her to have a smooth way to the front.

The main concern I have is the ground. Fast ground is an unknown and her pedigree points suggests she may not be at her best when firm appears in the going description, also she seems to hit the ground quite hard, as far as my untrained eye can see.

At given prices I’m prepared to run the risk. If they afford her a too easy run from the front she could be hard to peg back, especially on fast ground at this track.

10pts win – Star Style @ 7/1 (SM)

Betting

Thursday Selections: 13th June 2024

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Another winner, thanks to Shahnaz! Finally something to cheer about: Two W’s from four selections (and Safari Dream still hurts, it should have been three) this week so far is a small sample size but maybe signals a return to some form of normality.

It was a strong- and smart ride by Jason Hart who had the mare always at the frontend of the race. She was seriously well-backed all day and the money was right, for once.

……

5.05 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

I was sweet on the filly Starproof at Bath a few weeks ago after her huge Ascot run. Unfortunately she didn’t seem to enjoy the track, expanded way too much energy early on and was a long way beaten in the end.

She deserves another chance and this more straightforward track today should suit better. Also that Bath form looks quite strong judged how the winner and especially runner-up have provided a significant boost.

Today could fall into her lap given there may not be too much of a pace and usually she can be quick from the gates and get to the front of the field.

The handicapper has given her a real chance dropping her another couple of pounds, down to her last winning mark, and judged on that Ascot performance, I feel she showed enough to suggest she’s clearly better than a 73 rated filly, as she was on the day.

It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot when she was coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, a close third in her group, and only 2 lengths beaten.

That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. I’m prepared to forgive her the Bath performance and given the current form for the yard and the eye-catching jockey booking, I’ll do expect to see a different Starproof today.

10pts win – Starproof @ 9/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 12th June 2024

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A winner is always nice, especially coming off THAT Saturday… but it could – maybe should have been – two winners.

Spring Is Sprung made all to win nicely at Pontefract. Safari Dream only beaten in the dying strides after going off way too fast.

Penalty Shootout was supremely well-backed but faded like the majority of horses I back these days. Probably did too much too soon and didn’t get home.

……

9.00 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m½f

Shahnaz could enjoy a perfect race, up with the pace in a race where not too many may want to make it a hot race for the lead. The mare clearly is returning in some fine form, as evidenced by her recent reappearance over this course and distance.

She loves it here: 2 wins from 4 runs, and the most recent one highly encouraging when fifth, less than four lengths beaten.

She was a bit sluggish out of the gates but quickly moved forward to lead, travelling nicely on the bridle. She showed a lovely attitude once under pressure and kept going before eventually eased in the final furlong.

The run should put her spot on for today. An additional pound off the mark is a bonus. She still ran some good speed ratings last season, two times 55+ in fact, and if she strips fitter today, there’s no reason not to believe she’s still that good.

A fine low draw will help to keep the effort to a minimum at the beginning, as long as she starts quickly. This is also a weaker contest than three weeks ago. There’s some money coming all morning for her, no surprise (from 10’ss as low as 4/1 now, but Exchanges still give 6.4-8 for a proper stake).

10pts win – Shahnaz @ 11/2

Betting, Uncategorized

Monday Selections: 10th June 2024

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I’m still a bit in a state of shock after Saturday, 0/6… it’s going from bad to worse. I guess the positive is: three decent runs, and the majority were prices you can’t expect to go in any day.

But at some point a proper upswing should be on the cards now…?

……

7.40 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Safari Dream ran well in his last three races, although he was outclassed, ultimately, in his most recent start at Goodwood, but at least showed once again a fine attitude to finish the race.

He caught the eye the two times prior, in much more obvious fashion. In early May at Salisbury he couldn’t quite find the acceleration in deep ground, yet travelled incredibly strongly to the 2 furlong marker, and just as he seemed to find momentum again, got squeezed out in the closing stages.

At Windsor on before that, he travelled strongly too, and didn’t enjoyed the clearest of passages, getting stuck behind horses. Both runs the 4-year-old gelding suggested he’s in excellent form and the most recent performance doesn’t put me off.

He drops down to class 5 again. Much easier, also with the added support from the handicapper, who dropped Safari Dream to 70, with excellent 5lb claiming apprentice Oliver Searle on board.

The only danger is that if he doesn’t get off to a quick start, he may find himself locked in against the inside rail.

10pts win – Safari Dream @ 9/2

……

6.30 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

Spring Is Sprung should have a cracking chance from his low draw and his blistering early speed to potentially dominate, or at least get it easier in the early stages of the races than others.

His turf record doesn’t read too well, but he ran with plenty of credit the last two times, following on from a long break and wind operation.

Especially last time out at Catterick where he got off to a great start, although pestered throughout, set a hot enough pace and only got beaten in the final furlong.

Today is formally a slightly easier race, and another 2lb off his mark can only help. He could be quite well-handicapped now, given last summer he ran well off 78 and 80 in hot handicaps and he has multiple 70+ speed ratings on his CV.

10pts win – Spring Is Sprung @ 7/2

……..

8.10 Windsor: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

I loved the handicap debut from Penalty Shootout a few weeks ago. It was a gigantic step forward from anything the 3-year-old gelding showed in three maiden races.

He was soon up with the pace, travelling seriously well into the home straight, still on the bridle 3 furlongs out and only tiredness seemed to get the better off him late.

If he can improve from that run, he’ll must have serious chance today. Still unexposed, a mark of 60 may underestimate him, as he ran already a fine 55 speed ratings the last time.

He was quite well backed that day too, and the same seems to be the case today. Intriguing to see Oisin Murphy retaining the ride. The pedigree is an intriguing one too, as a son of Bungle Inthejungle the 10f trip doesn’t seem a natural fit.

But I believe if was tiredness, not stamina, that saw him fade at Nottingham. Also the dam is a significant stamina influence looking at the family.

10pts win –  Penalty Shootout @ 4/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 8th June 2024

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1.30 Beverley: Maiden Stakes, 7.5f

Mysteryofthesands looks underestimated moving back into maiden company. Still chasing a first career victory, he impressed the last time at Haydock, though.

He overcame a wider than ideal draw and quickly moved forward on the outside, chasing the leader, before taking it up from 3 furlongs out, travelling well. He was only beaten by two horses from off the pace but came clear of the rest of the pack.

He ran well at Beverly over this trip prior, having been keen from a wider than ideal draw as well. Both forms look good and he should be a bit better than this mark, so could be of interest in handicap company but this looks a race for the taking.

He has shown solid early speed and may be able to grab an uncontested lead here. The ground is a question mark, he seems to hit it quite well and only raced on softer ground so far, but the pedigree gives him a solid chance to actually improve for decent underfoot conditions.

10pts win – Mysteryofthesands @ 9/2

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3.35 Haydock: Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, 7f

 Quinault looks seriously underappreciated here as one who still be able to improve into a solid Stakes performer. He has risen through the ranks last year and ran incredibly well, more often than not, in super competitive handicaps.

He won seven races last year over 6 and 7 furlongs, many of them and decent to fast ground, including two hot Handicaps at Newmarket and Ascot. I also feel his two most recent performances warrant a clear upgrade.

He was not advantaged by the draw in his final run in 2023, and neither was he last month at Newmarket. In addition to the draw, that saw him confined to a small, isolated group on the far side, he missed the break (not a habit, yet) and a less than ideal route to the front of the small pack eventually, where he also pulled seriously hard.

It was a huge performance to keep going for as long as he did as he won the race of his small group too.

There’s plenty of pace in the race today, that will help him to settle. Hopefully he can start quickly, as he normally does. His stamina will be stretched to the limit but this flat track will suit.  Quinault is drawn right beside Pogo, has a low draw and should find himself in an ideal spot in the closing stages.

10pts win –  Quinault @ 13/1

…….

4.10 Haydock: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

I quite liked all four career runs from Kindest Nation this year. Lightly raced, and usually to the front of the field, she is open to improvement and could enjoy the conditions today.

The Hugo Palmer trained filly was her greatest enemy on debut when dwelling, before finishing strongly. She went on to win in impressive style a maiden at Southwell where she overcame a wide draw.

She didn’t seem quite home at Beverley but showed a lovely attitude in the final furlong, before, possibly not quite getting home over a mile in soft ground conditions when last seen.

Those last two forms look strong on paper, though, and she deserves her spot in this race, which is an ever so slight drop to the 0-80 Handicap that has been franked in the meantime.

The fast ground is a question mark in so far as she never tried it yet, but pedigree suggests it could bring out some improvement, even. The drop to 7f can only suit in my view, and in a race with a possible lack of pace she may enjoy the run of the race.

10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 8/1

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4.45 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 6f

Mustajaab looked an improved horse after a gelding operation when he reappeared at Southwell, given how easily he kicked clear in a competitive Handicap from near top-weight.

He ran a lot better at Ascot last month in a hot race, than the bare form suggests, though, given the circumstances. Drawn far away from the pace, he had to move across early on, found himself without cover from a long way out, and was badly carried over from over 3f out, nonetheless making good progress all the time.

He profile suggests softer ground is what he wants but truth is he didn’t have many opportunities on faster ground so far, and if so that came in hot races where he was big prices too.

It’s worth a chance, because there’s the possibility that he can be a bit better than his current 92 rating, and crucially he’s ideally drawn right beside the pace here, to hopefully tow him into the finish. He’s got speed and will not be lacking for effort.

10pts win – Mustajaab @ 9-5/1

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5.05 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Hot race, plenty of pace. Who’ll last home? Vadamiah could be the one from her good low draw, over a course and distance she loves and ground she clearly acts on.

Her recent seasonal reappearance was a gigantic effort in an equally fast race where she blasted through the first two furlongs the quickest, travelled strongly and just got beaten by less than a lengths by two in-form horses.

A pound up for that brings her right to her best ratings on speed and win form but she loves it at Catterick, three CD wins are prove, she won in this class as well and the 3lb of excellent apprentice Mark Winn could be critical today.

I don’t see too many getting involved in this in the closing stages, actually. Few appear anywhere near well-handicapped and with Vadamiah possibly hitting her physical peak as a 5-year-old now, she could still improve a bunch of pounds in these conditions.

10pts win – Vadamiah @ 9/2

…….

6.10 Catterick: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

I find this yard hard to catch, and so is So Grateful, a gelding reserving his best often for the sand. But if on a going day and allowed to run on merit he could be quite well-handicapped today, given 6f on fast ground with with an ideal draw at this track should seriously suit.

He caught the eye last time at Carlisle when racing forward up with a hot pace and didn’t tire too badly, which should prove solid form, with the first three home all tried in higher grade the next time.

So Grateful drops in grade today, this is more his realistic level and he’s a couple of pounds below his last winning mark. That came on fast ground at Pontefract off 65 last July, as most his wins come during the summer months.

He won twice over 6 furlongs, so the trip is within his range. From the #2 draw he should be able to move quickly forward and track the pace, to be right up there when it matters most.

His 7lb claiming apprentice has still a lot to learn but the weight allowance comes in handy, I reckon. He could be really well-handicapped today, all taking into account. With this yard you never know, though. He may drift out to 25/1 and misses the break…

10pts win – So Grateful @ 10/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 7th June 2024

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4.08 Thirsk: Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap, 5f

Lotus Rose runs against her own sex today again, with a good high draw and pace to tow her in to the finish drawn right beside her. The filly, albeit not easy to catch, ran pretty well this season, bar a poor comeback run in early April.

She was second and third subsequently over 6 furlongs, and that form doesn’t look too shabby, including on speed ratings achieved. Dropped to the minimum trip when last seen, she overcame quickly a sluggish start and then chased a hot pace.

She fell away from 2f out, but this was a seriously strong race for the class, her draw wasn’t ideal, her poor start didn’t help, and taking all that into context it was a fine run more or less in line with those two previous performances.

Lotus Rose returns to Thirsk over 5 furlongs, against her own sex today, down to a sexy mark, 7lb below her last winning mark as a previous course and distance winner. She may profit from a stronger rider in the saddle too, with Sam James, who won on the mare in the past, back in the reigns.

She has won on fast ground, so I don’t think that’s an issue. She can break sluggishly, though. That’s a danger, of course. If all goes well, she could be too well handicapped in this race today.

10pts win – Lotus Rose @ 17/2

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6.45 Bath: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

I was keen on Parisiac the last day at Yarmouth and am prepared to give him another chance. He threw his race away at the gate, as he swerved to his right violently and then did way too much early on to get to the front of the race.

He did quite well in the circumstances, and the form looks good as well. Another pound off his mark doesn’t make much difference because he was lurking on a dangerous OR already.

He caught my eye back in March at Doncaster for the first time in a hot class 3 contest, so he takes a big drop in class today.

He was not up to the task against much classier opposition back then, but showed a nice attitude, not giving in, even when beaten, after pushing a hot pace early on.

He’s a pound below his last winning mark now, and still managed to achieve good speed ratings last season; those last two performances suggest he’s not too far off that form, if he can get a clean break.

Parisiac swerved to his right the last three times, and that’s a danger that the same scenario as last time unfolds, where he’s left with too much do, given he’s a natural front-runner.

However, Hollie Doyle in the saddle, I hope can get him off to a good start, because the #9 looks perfect over this CD. I wished for less fast ground, but I feel, if he can break cleanly, against this opposition, the 5-year-old gelding should have too much class.

10pts win – Parisiac @ 11/2

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 5th June 2024

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8.25 Ripon: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

As competitive as this race looks, less than a handful should be serious contenders, and of those I reckon Herakles makes plenty of appeal to run – at least – to form.

His most recent Beverley run was eyecatching as he stormed to the front and led as part of a trio. He was travelling much the best, still ahead half a furlong from home and only late beaten by two horses from further back, to finish 3rd, eventually.

Herakles performed with credit, and mostly warranted an upgrade, in a majority of his six runs in 2024, since he came back from a break and wind operation.

Since then he finished four times in the money and ran respectably in two races of higher level. He’s down in 0-68 today, a level he should have the class to win.

Back in April the 4-year-old achieved a career-best speed rating on the All-Weather, and he followed up with two strong efforts on turf, at Pontefract in deep ground, and at Beverley latest, on a fast surface.

The decent ground today is certainly fine for him, even if it continues to dry out further. Even though still missing a W on turf, he’s got 4 placing from 7 starts over the minimum trip and the recent runs suggest it’s a matter of time before he wins.

These undulating tracks, like Ripon, seem to suit him best as well. He’s not quite ideally drawn, but #5 won’t give to many excuses I reckon, given his fine early speed will ensure he gets quickly close to the pace that may develop, as so often, toward the stands’ side.

10pts win – Herakles @ 6/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 4th June 2024

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8.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Eldeyaar can be a frustrating sort, only two wins on the sand, while seemingly catching the eye on multiple occasions throughout his career, this lad is difficult to catch. Saying that, today looks a prime chance to score.

The 5-year-old gelding ran a massive race last time out over this course and distance. He was caught wide thanks to his draw and moved forward in the fastest part of the race on the outside to get close to the leader.

He made a strong move from 3 furlongs out and only got caught late, deep inside the final furlong, by two horses staying on from off the pace.

The handicapper has let his grip go, and Eldeyaar can race off 51 today once again. Though, he drops down a bit in class, and should have too much class, so to speak, for his rivals in this 0-55 Handicap, with his form and wellbeing assured over a course and distance all his sand wins have come.

Top pilot Callum Rodriguez is in the saddle today, and a decent #5 draw should help him not getting caught wide this time. He’s usually quick into stride, so a good position chasing the pace should be where we see him settle and then hopefully run away with it in the home straight.

Quite a bit of money is on its way this morning. Of course I missed the boat, checking my trackers too late. Currently 7/2 looks a big enough price, still, though, in a poor contest.

10pts win – Eldeyaar @ 7/2

Betting

Sunday Selections: 2nd June 2024

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It wouldn’t have made a difference to the result, most likely, yet it was disappointing to see Dancing Gemini once again receiving a ride that compromised his chances to the extremes. Dylan Browne McMonagle is a repeat offender as “catching the eye” way to often for his lack of pace awareness.

His ride cost Dancing Gemini dearly at Longchamp, and once again in the Derby. To drop right back to last position, in a race that didn’t seem to have been run overly fast, when he had a good draw and fine start, was once again surprising as frustrating to watch. It meant he had no control over the route to take for a clear run and was at the mercy of all those 15 rivals ahead of him.

I’m not one to bash jockeys, and no pocket talk either, because, City Of Troy was clearly the best horse in the race – what an impressive performance! But it irked me to see Dancing Gemini getting shocking rides in these two important races.

Some jockeys, no matter how poor they ride, keep their rides in big races. Others, unwarranted, get taken off, like poor Callum Shepherd, for example.

……….

3.17 Listowel: Conditions Race, 1m

An intriguing little contest today at Listowel that may evolve around the pace, and the potential lack of it. This track usually favours those close to the pace.

That may play into the hands of The Liffey, who has shown the ability to lead on debut, but got upset in the stalls and dwelt as a result the next time. He could be a lot better than that showing.

Experienced Quar Shamar also can be forward. Highly tried in the past, his sole win comes on the sand, though. The other 4-year-old in the field, Narmar, is a course and distance winner, but first-time blinkers have to revive him as he was well-beaten the next two times.

Sara Valentina won a weak maiden last month, dropping in trip after a disappointing effort on her racecourse debut last autumn. She moves back up and should be able to see out a mile, given her dam. Certainly an intriguing filly.

Uluru is the most intriguing one, though not only because she’s one of my horses to follow this season.

The filly was mightily impressive on her racecourse debut at Gowran Park last summer: from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start but eventually ran away with it and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

That’s the sign of a potentially smart individual. No surprise, she changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners, Team Valor, in her final start last season.

In a big sales race at Naas it wasn’t a good pace and she got stuck in traffic without a way to get out. She still managed to finish well enough to get him in 4th place.

No question she looks capable of turning into a stakes filly this year, in my view. She only enhanced these claims on her seasonal at Killarney last month. She travelled well and looked to come with a big run on the outside, only a matter of when not if whether she would go past the leader, but she was reportedly hanging badly, and got a remarkably light ride as well, to fail in a tight finish.

The winner Alpheratz is a smart filly in her own right, so this form should be legit, even though she ran a stinker in the Irish 1000 Guineas subsequently.

The question mark for Uluru today is the ground. She never encountered this type of faster surface. But there’s plenty of faster ground form in her pedigree, so proper good ground doesn’t worry me.

10pts win – Uluru @ 7/2