Tag Archives: 1000 Guineas

Betting

Sunday Selections: 26th May 2024

Leave a comment

Winners are hard to get for quite a while now, so I was delighted to cheer home Candleford as he landed the Orby Stakes from the front in good style. A second winner for the week.

He was well supported, and I take some general positives from the fact that the majority of selections this week went off shorter SPs than the price I got.

Unfortunately Matilda Picotte ran her race in the paddock, and Unquestionable looked rather unimpressive prior to the race. Rosallion won the Irish 2000 Guineas, in the end, he prevailed in a thriller of a finish.

………

3.45 Curragh: Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas, 1m

It’s going to be interesting to see what impact the impending rain has on the ground, come 3.45pm at the Curragh, this afternoon. Currently still decent ground, the forecast looks grim.

No matter how much rain falls between now and then, the filly I have been waiting for to return this season won’t mind: Azada. One of the horses to follow this year, I was hoping we’d see her in a trial prior the Guineas.

Dermot Weld said as much, but at the same time he’s won this race with fillies on their seasonal debuts, and he seemed reasonably positive about her chances, when speaking earlier this week.

I take that as “good enough” to back her, especially at a big price that possibly/hopefully underestimates her true chance – if, indeed, ready to go. She’s significantly on the drift in the betting this morning, though. Not a good sign?

Azada was mightily impressive on debut in her sole career run toward the end of last year. At Leopardstown, in a 7 furlongs maiden in horrible ground, she accelerated in superb style and left the rest of the field standing.

She overcame signs of greenness and deep ground. Even though Dermot Weld said she may prefer decent ground, I suspect she will always be at her best with some juice in ground, given her pedigree shows tons of good soft ground form too.

That Leopardstown run was notably for how easily she kicked clear under a hands and heels ride. Doing that from the back of the field is never easy at Leopardstown. And she achieved a superb 82 debut speed rating for that performance.

The form hasn’t worked out, mind. But Azada looked all class and you would think she’s got tons of scope to improve as a 3-year-old.

Whether today will see her to best effect on her seasonal reappearance remains to be seen. Other rivals are race fit and I suspect, if she’s ridden with restraint, she will need plenty of luck from her #2 draw. She’s got pace around her, that’s positive. But if the pace tires at some point, she may be stuck on the rail.

It worth a risk, at a price that I would have expected to be half that. This renewal of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks competitive in nature, but there’re plenty of question marks about the main principles.

10pts win – Azada @ 10/1

……

3.10 Curragh: Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup, 1m 2.5f

Can you trust Auguste Rodin? His best is too good for the rivals he meets today. But he’s either hot or cold and you can’t be sure what you get, especially as he returns off a break today.

Aiden O’Brien trained horses often improve for their return run, and you would expect Auguste Rodin to fall into the same pattern, with bigger targets looming large on the horizon.

At given prices, I’m happy to take him on, for that reason alone. There are enough viable alternatives in this field, thankfully.

White Birch comes to mind, obviously. He’s won two in a row, has been much more professional, racing closer to the pace and that saw him land the Mooresbridge and Alleged Stakes over 10 furlongs in good style.

Despite the rain forecast, the ground may not turn soft enough for the grey to be seen to best effect, though.

Lumiere Rock loves this track, ran often well in hot races against her own sex last year and takes on the boys now. She may get it easy at the front of the race and may enjoy a tactical advantage for that reason alone.

Nonetheless, the filly has to step up significantly as her career-best speed ratings aren’t good enough to win a Group 1, let alone one against male opposition.

Mashoor also enjoys this course and distance. He was disappointing in his two runs this season, and will hope not too much rain will go into the ground. He may track the pace, though, could be in a prime position, and may outrun his big odds.

Saying that, I’m firmly in the Elegant Man camp today. The son of Arrogate hasn’t impressed on speed ratings yet, but I was seriously taken by his superb performance in the Easter Classic at Newcastle.

From the widest gate, he overcame a sluggish start, to lead a highly competitive field from the front and never looked in doubt in the closing stages, only late getting fully ridden out to the line.

He followed on from a visually impressive run at Dundalk in January and an excellent runner-up effort behind subsequent Sheema Classic winner Rebel’s Romance.

Elegant Man has ran only on the All-Weather so far. It remains to be seen how he can translate that form to turf. That’s the key question today. Reportedly he worked well on turf in training, but you never quite know what you get until a horses proves it in a race.

His pedigree doesn’t give too much clues either. Hence it’s a bit of a gamble. In saying that, if he can translate those brilliant sand performances to turf, he should be a huge runner today. We’ll know our fate early in the race, I reckon.

10pts win – Elegant Man @ 9/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 5th may 2024

Leave a comment

3.40 Newmarket: Group 1 1000 Guineas, 1m

You can’t ignore the credentials of the Karl Burke trained favourite Fallen Angel. The daughter of Too Darn Hot improved with every run last season, culminating in an impressive Moyglare success.

That form offers an excellent springboard for more success this year. She’s likely to appreciate the step up to a mile and seems drawn well, near enough to where the pace is likely to develop. She’s quite versatile, can move forward or track the pace.

There’s so much to like and she’s probably the right favourite. If anything, the price is nothing more than fair, given so many unknowns in a race such the 1000 Guineas.

Also there’s plenty of pace in this race. We have seen 24h ago how that can end for well-fancied horses. She may burn too much fuel early on, is a danger I can foresee.

Porta Fortuna possibly posts the strongest juvenile performance, though, certainly on speed ratings, when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes. She continued her progress with a gallant 2nd at Santa Anita.

The question I have is whether she really is as good over a mile as a 3-year-old as she was over 6 furlongs last season. The draw doesn’t do her any favour, the way the race may pan out. Intriguing contender, but not at this price.

I’m intrigued also by what William Buick does on Dance Sequence, especially as she can miss the kick. He may have to use the filly early on to get into a good position as otherwise, also drawn on the wing, somewhat away from the pace, may be detrimental.

She ran well in he Nell Gwyn and I’d fancy her to turn the form around with Pretty Crystal over the new trip. Whether that’s good enough to land a Guineas remains to be seen.

The winner that day, Pretty Crystal, has yet to run a serious speed rating in six career runs. I have my doubts that she can improve to the level normally required to win a Guineas.

French raider Ramatuelle was ultra-impressive winning the Robert Papin last July. He’s race fit after a good 2nd at Deauville last month. He came back for more after travelling well and burning a lot of energy in the first half of a slowly run race. The mile is a question mark, though.

Star Style for the Hannon team was brilliant on his debut a few weeks ago, posting a 84 speed rating. She’s one to keep an eye on, for all that a mile in this grade, with competition for the lead, may be beyond her stamina reserves.

Ylang Ylang was progressive last year and her course and distance Group 1 Fillies’ Mile win is as good as it gets in this field. I’m slightly worried about the drying ground, as she seemed to show her best with juice in the ground.

See The Fire showed promise as a juvenile and should do even better this year. She’s bred to stay beyond a mile, but may appreciate the fast pace today as well as the better ground.

Her tendency to hang in the closing stages certainly cost her an unbeaten record as a 2-year-old, I reckon. With that in mind her 3rd in the Fillies’ Mile warrants an upgrade.

She was still so raw and unfinished last season. Clearly there’s more to come, given her pedigree. She still showed an ability to travel and quicken. Both should be of use today.

The draw isn’t ideal. Out on the wing, Oisin Murphy will have to make an early decision, whether to sit back and suffer potentially in traffic late, or whether to move forward and across to get closer to the lead that should develop toward the centre.

That’s a risk I’m prepared to take. See The Fire seems still a bit overpriced. If she can run straight she could well be the best filly in the race, today and long-term.

10pts win – See The Fire @ 10/1

…..

4.23 Hamilton: Class 5 Handicap, 8.5f

Shine On Brendan must have a serious chance in this race, Money arrived throughout the morning, which I take as a positive sign, and he’s still perhaps a point or a bit more even too big, if on a going day.

He loves it here, has a positive 8-3-2 record over this course and distance and was a fine second in this very race twelve months ago off a 2lb lower mark.

Two solid comeback runs should put him spot on. From a wide draw he ran with plenty of credit a fortnight ago at Musselburgh. The soft ground will certainly suit today.

That last performance gave a fair indication that Shine On Brendan may not be too far of the level of form the gelding showed in 2023, where he ran to 64 and 69 speed ratings, won off 68 and got close off 70.

The 7-year-old has shown in the past that he can move forward. Potentially a big advantage today, in a race with not too much competition for the lead expected.

10pts win – Shine On Brendan @ 5/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 7th May 2023

Leave a comment

Saturday was wild. Harry’s Hill won, despite drifting out to 15/2 SP. He won like a ‘good thing’, though. I was stuck with 9/2 in any case, so the drift was no good to me. But I had him a good point shorter in my book, anyway. So, happy days.

Not so much a “happy ending” in the 2000 Guineas. Silver Knott was never going to win once the rain arrived. And there was a lot of rain! So much so it turned the ground to proper soft.

I’m upset with my eagerness to back him early, instead of having waited until Saturday to make a much better informed decision. Poor decision making is what eats profit.

And then there was Hi Royal. A huge price, could have been backed at 150s in the morning. Surely a small each-way bet would have been on the cards, especially as he was one of my 3-year-olds to follow and I wrote about him:

“Could be somewhat of a “dark horse” for the Guineas… given the speed he showed in his first two career starts. Clearly he’s seriously talented”.

Well, he ran a huge race to finish 2nd, looked like the winner even, before hanging badly. A missed opportunity. Sometimes I just don’t trust my own judgement enough.

………

It wasn’t a bet but I was nonetheless incredibly delighted, simply as a racing fan: everyone who follows this blog probably knows I love South African racing, and have grown particularly fond of 3-year-old colt Charles Dickens.

He was back today, down to a mile against his own age group. He won with authority, produced his usual stunning turn of foot and it was simply great to see him back to somewhere near his brilliant best.

It was a super ride by Aldo Domeyer, who made progress at the right time before it was too late as the pace wasn’t all that hot, and then trusted the acceleration of Charles Dickens, that was instant, to move through the gap on the inside.

The Durban July has been ruled out. Which is rather obvious, given the colt didn’t get home over 10 furlongs. But another crack over a mile against older horses would be seriously intriguing. The Gold Challenge at Greyville next month has been mentioned as a potential target, indeed.

……..

3.00 Newmarket: Dahlia Stakes, 9f

The ground throws this race wide open and I feel progressive filly Al Husn is possibly underestimated. She’s one of the horses I gonna follow keenly this season. Moving up to Group 2 level is asking plenty of her, but I believe she showed enough last year to think she could have a solid chance to be in the mix.

It may turn out that she isn’t quite good enough, but the filly loves it at Newmarket and is likely to enjoy the soft underfoot conditions, given she won impressively on good to soft when last seen and seems to hit the ground quite hard, too.

I loved her win over a mile in a class 3 Handicap here back in September, when she ran home strongly to win a shade cozily. She was even more impressive, I thought, when she moved up in class and trip to win a hot class 2 Handicap a few weeks later over 10 furlongs at the Rowley Mile.

She became a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before she hit top gear and sprinted home strongly to win with authority once again.

Dropping down to 9 furlongs in proper soft conditions shouldn’t be a problem. She showed plenty of cruising speed in her races and has the pedigree to stay, possibly even beyond 10 furlongs.

I’d be surprised if she isn’t ready for her reappearance. Roger Varian wouldn’t throw her into the deep end, otherwise. Yes, she has a bit to find on ratings, including speed ratings, but she has an opportunity to show that she belongs here. She looks the value in this contest.

10pts win – Al Husn @ 10/1

………

3.25 Leopardstown: Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes, 10f

Up And Under was an unlucky runner-up in a photo in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. He travelled much the best, made smooth progress on the outside of the field until he got tight for room and badly bumped 2 furlongs from home.

It was impressive how he gathered momentum following the collision as rapidly as he did to fight it out in a battle with potentially smart White Birch. If he wouldn’t have been hampered, could he have won? I think he might have and then would be a shorter price.

He clearly acts on soft ground, as he also ran a lovely race on debut on heavy ground in his sole start as a juvenile last October.

He looks a lovely prospect for middle-distance races this year, and could also step up to 12 furlongs.

For now, this presents a good opportunity to score in Group company because favourite Proud And Regal may well be the default favourite but the Donnacha O’Brien trained colt’s Group 1 win at the end of last season doesn’t look overly strong form.

The price is just about getting quite skinny now and I would not go below 11/4, to be honest.

10pts win – Up And Under @ 11/4

…….

3.40 Newmarket: Group 1, 1000 Guineas, 1m

Favourite Tahiyra is all class. The way she won the Moyglare last season was incredibly impressive. It’s the standout piece of form and she ran a good 99 speed rating as well, without having to go all out.

The vibes from the Weld yard were somewhat mixed leading up to the Guineas. However, it’d be hard to believe such an experienced handler would send her over if she wouldn’t be ready to go.

She beat Meditate at the Curragh in the most impressive style. Hard on the bridle with two furlongs to go, she never saw the whip, yet produced a sensational turn of foot.

I think she’s not a bad price at all, even. Certainly the one to beat on paper.

Meditate, runner-up in the Moyglare went on to win at Breeders’ Cup subsequently. The Aiden O’Brien trained filly should rate a key danger once again.

She ran to a 104 speed rating when runner-up behind speedy Lezoo in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Therefore, she possesses plenty of speed and looks well capable to stretch out to a mile as evident at Keeneland. But that was on firm ground. The soft going is a a bit of a question mark.

Aforementioned Lezoo would be seriously dangerous if she could stay a mile. She looks a sprinter to me, though. Somewhat similar doubts hang over recent Nell Gwyn Stakes winner Gammas Girl. The Guineas is a much deeper race, but it’s far from a given that she can get home over the additional furlong.

Dreams Of Love and Mawj bring solid form from Meydan. Is that form good enough? Maybe. Mawj ran excellent speed ratings and has experience on her side. She’s a danger I seriously rate.

But there is absolutely no doubt in mind that they all have to beat Remarquee, including the filly herself. What I mean is: she is obviously a tricky filly, can be raw, awkward and looks seriously green in her first two career runs.

At the same time she created a huge impression on debut last year at Salisbury when she finished like a train, and no less so at Newbury in the Fred Darling two weeks ago.

That day she didn’t have the clearest of runs, before she accelerated really well from two furlongs out. She looked far from straight forward, carried her head awkwardly, yet won with tons in hand, nearly on the bridle, eventually.

Obviously I’m biased because I flagged her as a 3-year-old to follow. But it’s difficult not be impressed by what she has done so far, exactly because she was so green.

That recent experience can only help. So should the step up to a mile and the soft ground, which is going to suit her more than many here. I must back her at current prices.

10pts win – Remarquee @ 7/1

…….

4.58 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Sir Benedict ran too poorly to be true at Catterick when last seen less than two weeks ago. His rider relinquished an advantageous draw and steered away from the far rail, which was no help at all.

But I do remain faithful to him, even though, one could ask: is there ever going to be another day for him to shine? He’s probably one of the most unfortunate horses without a “W” to his name this year.

He’s a tricky sort and there’s a reason why he’s yet to win in 2023, despite knocking on the door a number of times and having dropped another two pounds lower than. At the same time, I maintain that he looks cherry ripe.

To go up and run over 6 furlongs again is a risk, though. He can pull hard when there’s no pace to run at. You never know how the race is going to develop, though, it looks likely that they good a decent clip here.

He caught my eye a number of times over the last weeks and months. Especially three runs ago at Newcastle, stuck behind a wall of horses, he finished best, doing so nearly on hard held.

And prior to that also at Wolverhampton, again not enjoying a clear run, he dipped below 11s in the penultimate furlong and finished like a train.

The soft ground at Hamilton should be to his advantage, as well as that he’s a course and distance winner, who won here off 60 and ran to a 64 speed rating last June looks.

However, on proper soft ground the stiff finish may stretch him, especially if he shows any signs of keenness early on. That’s a the risk. He’s irresistibly well-handicapped, though, I’d follow him over the cliff another time again, given he ran to a 54 speed rating easily last month and 3x to 59 plus within the last twelve months.

10pts win – Sire Benedict @ 7/1

Betting

Preview: Irish 1000 Guineas 2022

Leave a comment

The first opportunity of Irish Classic glory for fillies looks a wide open affair as 14 go to post at the Curragh this afternoon.

It’s no surprise to see an Aiden O’Brien trained filly heading the betting for an Irish Classic. However, the fact he throws three other fillies into the mix doesn’t scream confidence.

Tuesday, at the time of writing the 11/4 favourite, ran with plenty of credit at Newmarket in the English Guineas, finishing a solid third place behind Cachet, who has franked the form in the meantime. There’s every chance the lightly raced daughter of Galileo will improve.

Yet her career-best topspeed rating of 95 isn’t anything special. Could she meet the same fate as her full-sister Minding, who finished runner-up in the Irish 1000 Guineas in 2016? Well, I think it’s certainly worth to oppose Tuesday today, aynway.

Dermot Weld has a strong chance with Homeless Songs, the winner of the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial. The Frankel daughter produced a nice turn of foot to beat smart runner-up Agartha.

No doubt she can progress and has to be considered a main threat to Tuesday. But to be a true contender she certainly has to improve. At Leopardstown she was a bit slow out of the gates, something you’ll hardly overcome in a Classic; while the performance was visually impressive, the 82 topspeed rating isn’t nearly as impressive.

The aforementioned Agartha was probably a bit unlucky in the Group 3 Cornelscourt Stakes subsequently. She finished second once again, that day behind History.

History, another filly for Aiden O’Brien, is another obvious improver, who should take another step forward from her really pleasing seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown.

Both fillies – History and Agartha – look solid alternatives to the favourite in my eyes, especially as the stiff Curragh finish should suit them.

William Haggas travels over with his representative Purplepay. She was an excellent third against the boys in the Criterium International when last seen. However, race fitness and most certainly the ground are major question marks for her. It may not be soft enough for her.

Mise En Scene hasn’t been seen since finishing 10th at the Breeders’ Cup. Her Prestige Stakes victory last August would give her a fair form chance to feature today. But hard to gauge what expect from her given she’s been off since November.

I am pretty sweet on the chances of another Aiden O’Brien trained filly: Concert Hall. She has Oaks written all over her, and at first glance a drop to a mile isn’t ideal. But in a Guineas that lacks substance, I feel she’s overpriced.

On pure form terms she has serious claims. She’s also top rated on topspeed – a 97 rating isn’t anything to shout about in top-class company, but that shows the lack of depth in the race today. More importantly though, Concert Hall achieved this career best TS last time out.

The daughter of Oaks winner Was returned as a 3-year-old with a fine victory at Navan last month where she stepped up to 1m 2f for the first time.

Not surprisingly she looked a bit fresh and was pretty keen for the first half of the race, but then travelled strongly on the home straight nonetheless and won in better style than the short winning margin may suggest.

The form has already worked out well, although the caveat is that she simply beat slower horses, given the third has won a Listed race over 1m 5f in the meantime and the fourth a Group 3 over 10 furlongs. Nonetheless, there’s real substance to this form.

Going back to her juvenile season her sixth place finish in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket was better than the bare result, and she was not far behind Cachet and Prosperous Voyage.

Before that she won the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes over 7 furlongs at the Curragh, clearly doing her strongest work up the stiff finish at the County Kildare venue.

In my mind this is the key to her chances today: that bit of give in the ground will put additional emphasis on stamina and horses can get really tired when they meet the stiff final furlong finish at the Curragh.

Concert Hall has proven that she has solid cruising speed, so I would not expect her to be seriously outpaced and getting too far behind.

Her future will most likely be over further. Today could simply be a stepping stone toward the Oaks. Aiden O’Brien mentioned this filly thrives on racing. Whether she well and truly enjoys cut in the ground remains to be seen. Others in this field, especially those fillies more at home over a mile may take a big step forward and outpace her.

Those are all dangers. Nonetheless, at given prices she looks significant value in my book given there is solid grounds to believe she will be more than capable to compete in this field at this track over this trip.

10pts win – Concert Hall @ 13.5/1

Ireland

Preview: Irish 1000 Guineas

Leave a comment

Curragh

The Irish 1000 Guineas will rise and fall with the Jessica Harrington trained Albigna. The only top-level winner in the field has the best form in the book and will be hard to beat with natural improvement.

Albigna’s victory in the Prix Marcel Boussac is the strongest form on offer from last year – by far! Not to forget the classy filly was far from disgraced in the Moyglare or the Breeders’ Cup.

In a weak Guineas field there is no denying that she holds all the aces. The equation is a simple one: if the daughter of Zoffany can run to her juvenile form then she is more than likely to run away with the race this evening.

However – and I may repeat myself in all these Guineas previews over the last week – Albigna is an experienced individual, who saw a racecourse for the first time in May last year. There is every possibility that she was simply ahead of her rivals in terms of mind and body.

And given that the Guineas is held a month later than it usually is, there is a danger that others have been able to catch up with time and age on their side. In saying that that I also feel odds around 2/1 are entirely fair, if not even a tad generous.

Aiden O’Brien appears to have weaker hand than usual in the 1000 Guineas. None of his three fillies tasted success on Group level yet – that is rather unusual. But the lightly raced Peaceful may well be the biggest danger to Albigna I feel, as she caught my eye on a number of occasions last year and she could have any amount of improvement to come.

The most intriguing filly in my eyes, though, seems to be completely overlooked: that is the Michael Halford trained Ridenza. She is a huge price in a race that lacks depth.

The one-time raced Sea The Stars daughter is tremendously well bred, given her dam is the 2014 Debutante winner Raydara. She will probably stay further than the Guineas trip but makes appeal over a mile as well, certainly at the current price.

Ridenza lacks experience. She made a winning debut at Leopardstown in a seven furlong maiden last August and was put away ever since, not helped by an injury she sustained.

That piece of form looks strong: the fourth placed Lemista won a Group 3 earlier this year and the 9th of that race, Peaceful, won a Listed contest and is the 3/1 second favouite today.

In fairness, the Aiden O’Brien filly got a very light ride that day and looked to have tons left. Nonetheless it was really positive sign that Ridenza was able to win on debut, overcoming plenty of greenness over a trip that is possibly on the sharp side.

Trainer Michael Halford noted after the race that this was indeed Ridenza’s very first time away from home and even the first time of her tasting turf. He also mentioned that she has plenty of growing to do, which was probably the reason why we didn’t see her again as a juvenile.

He also described her as “a smart filly, very well bred and she’s always shown plenty at home” in addition to being quite hopeful that there is much more to come when she turns three.

Obviously there is a reason why Ridenza is a 18/1 chance today: how has she wintered? Has she trained on? Is she ready to go? is she over the injury? Is the trip potentially too sharp?

But at the same time, given her fantastic pedigree, that points to excellent form over the shorter distances as well, I’m inclined to give her a better chance than the odds suggest.

Selection:
10pts win – Ridenza @ 18/1

……….

Siskin Delight in Irish 2000 Guineas

It was an incredible victory for Siskin in the Irish 2000 Guineas last night. The favourite did it the hard way, having to fight for a gap to get out late and thunder home, beating the Aiden O’Brien “football team”.

If you read my race preview you know I had major doubts about his ability to stay the trip as well as actually being good enough as a three-year-old. He proved all doubters wrong. How well Siskin stayed the Curragh mile and ran strongly to the line, no care in the world for the uphill finish?!

There was a lot of love for Ger Lyons as well. For him it was a very first domestic Classic success. A man who always speaks so well, who is open and honest with the public, it was wonderful to see the man reduced to tears in the post-race interview.

Betting Talk

Love is in the Air

Leave a comment

Newmarket Rowley Mile

“She isn’t good enough.”

Well, I didn’t have much love for Love leading up to the 1000 Guineas and made that pretty clear in my preview when highlighting her lack of a top-class speed rating as well as the many opportunities she had to produce one. Concluding with the final assessment: “she isn’t good enough”. Some things don’t age well.

One had to love her willing attitude, though. Relentless galloping from the start, never too far off the pace, albeit drawn away from it and racing on the outside of the field wasn’t the most economical thing to do.

Ryan Moore kept it simple and that paid off for a filly bound to stay further. She was going away from her rivals in the final 100 yards, winning with authority in the end.

Albeit I maintain that this wasn’t a particularly good renewal. It’s one we’ll forget nearly as quickly as it took the fillies to finish the eight furlongs of the Rowley Mile.

Love showed little love for my selections. In fact she broke the heart of Cloak Of Spirits when finally passing her half a furlong from the finish. The big filly ran on for second place, but as I backed her win only at 17’s on the Exchanges, that was of no no help from a betting perspective. Raffle Prize was beaten halfway through the race.

……….

Moving forward I won’t post selections on a (near-) daily cadence throughout the flat season as done over the last years here with relative success.

Time doesn’t allow for it as life is really busy and analysing the racing in the way I need to in order to continue making a profit is time consuming alone, plus the added strain of actually finding places to get a sizable stake on in the races that I tend to bet in.

I want to keep focusing more on quality content as (hopefully) seen over the last week already. In saying that here and there I’ll send out a selection if I have enough time and found one I really want to share with the wider world.

……..

4.25 Haydock: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Hot race. Plenty of handicap debutants who also step up in trip. The majority have a fair chance to improve quite a bit for age and distance. You never know what you get in these races, who has trained on, who’s 100% ready and who’s truly well handicapped.

Yet I firmly believe Alargedram has a tremendous chance to land a first career victory. An opening mark of 72 could easily turn out to be lenient for this son of Lope De Vega who’s out of a mare who was listed placed over 1m 2f.

He caught my eye on two occasions last year in what appeared decent races. Particularly the Wolverhampton one looks solid, given those ahead of him that day are now rated in the 80’s and followed up with decent performances.

He ran on well under a light ride that day on the wide outside. I also thought he finished with plenty of credit on his final start at Windsor, when the going was pretty deep and he didn’t seem to enjoy that too much, yet finishing well enough. In all three starts he received rather sympathetic or educational rides in my view.

Alargedram looks a big boy with plenty of scope ready to improve rapidly now upped in trip. The fact connections paid 75k for him as 2-year-old after he was only a ten grand yearling shows he has improved quite a bit from what was originally thought of him.

That matches a comment the owners made some months ago, suggesting they think he’s going to be much better than his opening mark. I think so too. Ground will be fine, trip is good – only the wide draw is a slight concern, whether he will get a clear run in a field with twelve runners.

Selection:
10pts win – Alargedram @ 6/1 VC/SP/MB

Race Preview

Preview: 1000 Guineas

Leave a comment

Newmarket Rowley Mile False Rail

This years renewal doesn’t appear to be a “vintage Guineas”. However, that makes the contest quite an intriguing one, with so many fillies having so many questions to answer.

The betting is headed by a filly that’ll be outpaced four furlongs out and will struggle to finish fast enough in the end. In saying that I really do think Quadrilateral is a poor favourite and I am more than happy to take her on.

Her Fillies’ Mile victory is clearly a fine piece of form in the context of the Guineas but one had to be blind not to see that she needed every inch of the eight furlongs that day, not to forget on good to soft ground.

She is hardly getting any faster; in fact she is a fine prospect once she steps up in trip and probably more an Oaks contender than a solid Guineas favourite, but certainly an outstanding prospect for Group 1 races over ten furlongs.

Only a few fillies in this field have achieved a topspeed rating of 100 or more. That is disappointing and only proves the point that this year isn’t the strongest 1000 Guineas we have ever seen.

On the other hand, as mentioned in the 2000 Guineas preview, the fact that we’re four weeks behind the usual schedule will surly help those fillies that need time to mature, which in turn means there is the possibility for a big improver turning all the known form on its head.

I have little love for the Aiden O’Brien trained Love to be the one. Seven starts, beaten in four of them, only a career-high topspeed rating of 93 to show – she isn’t good enough.

Millisle has attracted a lot of positive quotes over the recent days and weeks. And rightly so. Her Cheveley Park Stakes success rates top of the queue. Given she is a late May foal you would hope for more improvement this year.

Stamina is the key question, as for many in the race today. She won twice over five furlongs. She has tons of speed. The pedigree gives some hope that she can stay the mile. In my book she is, with this benefit of the doubt, the filly to beat. At given prices she is too short for me to back, though.

The two I like in this field have both plenty to prove. There is the speedy Raffle Prize. It’s fair to say she has the best juvenile form in the book.

Runner-up against the boys in a strong Prix Morny, plus a subsequent runner-up performance in the Cheveley Park Stakes, plus two Group 2 successes early in the season – she achieved consistently high topspeed ratings, including twice of 100+ as well.

Obviously stamina is a massive question for a filly with so much speed. Her sire Slade Power was a classy sprinter but his offspring has done alright over the mile so far: a 12.6% strike rate reads decent enough. The dam side gives a bit hope too, so do the comments from the Johnston yard and the fact she is an April foal with scope.

The other one I like to outrun expectations, certainly judged by the market as a guide, is Richard Hannon’s Cloak Of Spirits. She was highly impressive on debut, subsequently disappointed in the May Hill Stakes, but really ran well in the Rockfel Stakes, when she also achieved a 97 topspeed rating, which in the context of the 1000 Guineas looks good form.

She is expected to progress as a three-year-old, boosts a scopey physique and has a fair chance to stay the distance. Richard Hannon is quite bullish about her chances as well. Not that I take too much note of that usually, nonetheless it’s a bonus if connections are keen and positive on an individual that you expect to progress anyway.

Her best form from last year isn’t far away from the best form of the market principles. So with more to come from her potentially, she is quite a massive price in comparison.

Selection:
6pts win – Raffle Prize @ 9/1
4pts win – Cloak Of Spirits @ 17/1

Racing Talk

A Weekend To Remember

Leave a comment

What a roller-coaster week. Culminating in an emotional and dramatic weekend that included a 16/1 winning selection for the 1000 Guineas as well as a winner in the Kentucky Derby that was no winner half an hour later and a superstar on the other side of the globe far too few people have heard of yet!

Throw in a couple of unlucky 2nd places and a 2000 Guineas result that left me wonder “what if” and you’ve certainly got a few days to remember!

2000 Guineas: What Draw Bias?!

Horses loading for the first Classic of the 2019 flat season, a last few words from Johnny Murtagh on ITV: he’s now leaning toward Magna Grecia based on his observation of the existence of a draw bias in favour of the stands-side.

A few minutes later Twitter was running hot as Magna Grecia passed the line in front of everyone else, indeed. The colt trained by Aiden O’Brien – of course – won the battle of his small group on the stand-side, far away from the rest of the field, comfortably. And because his side was always ahead throughout the race he won the 2000 Guineas rather comfortably in the end.

My selection Skardu ran a massive race and finished 3rd, winning the race in his much larger group. I guess, ideally we wouldn’t have this discussion now and instead we’d have seen a “fair” race. But this is racing. Happened in the past. Will happen again.

Whether there was a draw bias I am not so sure. Most likely there was a pace bias, though. And this had the most profound impact on the outcome of the race. This is certainly something that occurs any given day. If you’re drawn close to the pace and you follow it you always have a better chance of winning than not.

Smarter people will be able to explain all the exact reasons behind it in greater detail than I can or want right now. But that is a racing fact.

On balance I believe – at least over 1 mile – there is little between Magna Grecia and Skardu, and possibly Madhmoon. Will we see a re-match at the Curragh in a few weeks time? Magna Grecia is bound for the first Irish Classic. Wouldn’t it be nice to see these three meet there again? I’d love to see that!

Derby Delight Turns Sour

I live for these big races. The anticipation building over the whole day leading up to the moment when the gates crash open – pure excitement!

Normally I’m neither too high nor too low watching bred and butter racing, regardless of betting, the winning or the losing. Big races get my blood flowing, though.

Getting up at 3am in the morning for the Melbourne Cup? No bother. I can’t sleep anyway because of all the butterflies in my stomach!

The Kentucky Derby is one of my favourite races of the entire year. The occasion, build-up and atmosphere transported thanks to the outstanding NBC coverage is simply stunning.

No different this Saturday night. I was cheering home my selection Maximum Security with passion – surely the neighbours enjoyed it too – pumping the first in the air as the colt crossed the line ahead of everyone else. And who wouldn’t? A 9/1 winner in the Kentucky Derby is something to shout about!

Then the dreaded words: “objection lodged…. hold on to your tickets”. What follows are replay after replay dissecting ever aspect of the final three furlongs of the 145 Kentucky Derby. It was obvious Maximum Security was the best horse in the race. The runner-up Country House had no right to be upset with the result. He wasn’t impeded at all!

But it was also obvious Maximum Security impeded other horses when shifting around when turning home. It could resulted in a pretty bad situation on a different day.

Taking that into consideration I can understand the disqualification. And given the strict US rules it probably was the right call in the end.

On the other hand, whether it is truly a fair call to take the race away from the horse that was quite clearly the best one in the race, because of shifting around in an incredibly tight situation, racing on the limit at the end of a tough contest, doing so on a sloppy surface….

After all these are animals, not robots who run straight on rails as if they’d be pre-programmed machines.

It all happens so fast, there are 150.000 people screaming, horses and riders fighting for space, whips flying around…. it’s racing, not chess. These things happen in the sport and the question that needs to be raised in these type of situations is: did the winner got an unfair advantage and did the runner-up lost because of this situation?

The answer is unequivocal NO in this instance.

Ultimately I feel Maximum Security should have kept the race. What a fairytale it would have been. A horse thought to be so bad he started his career in a $16k claimer, going to win the Kentucky Derby…..

The Best Ever? 

South Africa as produced a lot of fantastic race horses over the years. The likes of Variety Club or Igugu come to my mind, in particular. But there is a new kid on the block and he could be the best there ever was in South Africa – some already suggest!

Well, one thing is for sure: Hawwaam is an incredibly exciting colt, with a turn of foot you rarely see produced in such stunning manner. How he races away from his rivals in the closing stages, like it’s the easiest thing in the world, is nothing short of breathtaking.

I took note for the first time – and was immensely impressed –  when Hawwaam stepped into Grade 1 company for the first time in the SA Classic earlier this year as he arguably exploded in the final furlong putting a handful of lengths between himself and the rest in a matter of strides.

He followed up on Saturday in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge when stepping up to the 10 furlongs distance and he couldn’t have been more impressive. How often do you see a horse in a top-level contest travelling hard on the bridle approaching the final furlong and then shooting clear under hands and heels? This horse is special:

On to the Durban July now? He surly will go off a warm favourite. And only luck or the lack of can stop him there I reckon.

How great would it be to see this superstar travel the world?! And what a shame that it remains so difficult for South African horses to travel. In turn it means far too few people get to know these classy horses that race on the other side of the globe.

Wayne Lordan Defies the Stats

He was 1 for 42 rides in the UK for Aiden O’Brien and his mounts went off a 25/1 average SP – Wayne Lordan couldn’t have been an unlikelier hero in the 1000 Guineas today – at least judged by the numbers.

Riding the least fancied of the Ballydoyle string once more, Hermosa was a largely ignored runner coming into the race. You could back her at 20/1+ this morning.

I missed those massive prices, but still got 16s with only a few hours to go to the race when making her my sole selection for the 1000 Guineas.

All credit to Wayne Lordan, though. What superb ride: incredibly brave, at the same time keeping it simple, bouncing the filly out of the stalls sending her straight to the lead, knowing Hermosa would likely stay all day and night long.

And she did! She was gutsy, stuck to her guns when challenged and won well in the end. A supremely well bred filly, adds another big race success to her superstar family, given she is a full-sister to Group 1 winners Hydrangea and The United States.

It brings a hectic week to an end. I had 30 bets. Way too many. I go carried away on Monday in particular but was bailed out by New Show at Windsor, thankfully. 4 winners & 120pts profit this week – the highlight obviously Hermosa.

A week of what would have been. 10 placed horses, multiple of those beaten in tight finishes on the line. A winner in the Kentucky Derby that was taken away half an hour later.

Well…. onwards and upwards. 

Betting

Preview: 1000 Guineas 2019

2 Comments

Gleneagles

Year after year the 1000 Guineas appears to be a tricky puzzle to solve. In truth, I never have been able to connect all the pieces in a successful way. It’s one of those classics I’ll always get wrong.

I guess it simply turns out to be pretty tricky to predict the progress these fillies make over the winter and when – if – how much improvement they can find. Hence I take a swing at a bigger price today once more.

The filly I do quite like is Hermosa. She seems quite far down the pecking order, judged by jockey bookings and odds. Wayne Lordan is a fine jockey but clearly not one who’s riding the best of Aiden O’Brien’s string. 1 for 42 rides in the UK, an average SP of 25/1. The odds are clearly against this to change today.

Obviously I have zero insight in to what the filly shows at home. However, I hope, the fact Ballydoyle even brings Hermosa over to Newmarket counts as a vote of confidence that she has wintered well.

She comes here without a prep run. That doesn’t have to be an issue, as Saturday’s 2000 Guineas proved once more. Judged purely by juvenile form, Hermosa is not far behind the market principles, though, which in turns means her current price tag is well over the top.

This daughter of Galileo was a late May foal, so you would hope for improvement with age and time. Regardless, she proved a smart 2-year-old already:

3rd in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, she went on to win a Naas Group 3 in nice style, was then a good runner-up behind Idriessa – a leading fancy today – in the bet365 Mile here at Nemwarket, and finished 2018 with a superb runner-up effort in the Criterium International over 7 furlongs, racing the boys. 

Her career best time speed rating (93) and RPR (110) do not leave her with a lot to find to the leading fancies in the 1000 Guineas – any improvement on that will see her go close, if she is ready to run.

Selection:
10pts win – Hermosa @ 16/1 MB

Racing Talk

Sunday Racing Review

Leave a comment

Upset in the 1000 Guineas – Winter won the first ladies Classic of the new season! Or was it even an upset? Maybe not so much because she was subject of substantial market support over the last week or so and some outspoken experts voiced their keenness on the Aiden O’Brien trained filly

Fact is she ran pretty well in the Leopardstown Guineas trial and with natural improvement and enhanced fitness she had always a chance to go close in what appeared to be quite an open renewal beforehand.

Winter got a fine no-nonsense ride by Wayne Lordon – who already sat on her last season when she was still trained by David Wachmann – and once hitting top gear she put lengths between herself and the field.

Stable mate and favourite Rhododendron didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs but finished strongly to claim second eventually.

At the same time I was over at Leopardstown for the Irish Derby Trial Day. Sunny Dublin presented itself from the best side and that made the day at the races so much more pleasant.

The Group 3 Amethyst Stakes went Custom Cut’s way, who finally got his head in front again – it took him nearly two years to do that since he took the Boomerang Stakes here at Leoapardstown back in 2015.

A 1000 Guineas Trial only in the name, because the actual field was poor and I’d be surprised if any of the contestants line up up in the Classic. Jim Bolger trained Jim Feasa won the race – a 99 rated individual not goo enough to land a Gowran Maiden at the fifth time of asking only a week ago. Tells you all about the quality of this race.

Quality was delivered in the main event, the Derby Trial. Two highly regarded and talked about Ballydoyle colts were thought to battle it out – though in the end both Capri and Yucatan had to settle for minors behind stable mate Douglas Macarthur.

I loved to see those famous Jooste colours from South Africa in the winners enclosure. Got a nice colt there with Douglas Macarthur who proved it was no fluke when he ran 2nd in the Ballysax where he also beat Yunatan and Capri.

For the future it might well be Yucatan then who turns out to be best of the trio. He didn’t quite get a clear run – though I felt he had every chance nonetheless – and battled hard to the line. A step up to the Derby trip should not be an issue and he looked simply stunning in the parade ring today.

 

………

3.40 Southwell: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Captain Bob is a very infrequent winner, in fact his last “1” dates back to 2014. However a falling mark seems to have reinvigorate him, particularly on the All-Weather were he has been placed in all his three starts which all came earlier this year.

He also took relatively easily to the Southwell fibresand. In fact he produced a strong performance over 6f when only beaten by a head in the end. This piece of form looks rock solid and judged on it he appears now to be potentially well handicapped.

He followed up with a fine 3rd place at Brighton subsequently on fast ground over 6f but I feel it this more stamina focused test over the same trip at Southwell suits him slightly better, and probably even more so as we now know he acts on the surface and Captain Bob himself has learned how to race on fibresand.

He’s got a good draw and a red hot apprentice in the saddle, so this may represent the best chance in a very long time to finally get his head in front.

Selection:
10pts win – Captain Bob @ 4/1 Bet365

…..

5.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

This is a shockingly poor contest given an 11 year old is favourite and a 20 times maiden is thought to be closes pursuer. However it is the still winless Kodimoor who seems overpriced in this race, despite his desperate record.

Reason to believe he can be very competitive is the fact that he dropped markedly in the weights and finished a decent third in an Apprentice Handicap over CD in January, trying fibresand for the first time.

That form gives him a big chance of effectively 5lb less, given his mark dropped 3lb since then and the change of jockey allowance taken into account – while it is fair to say 7lb claimer David Egan is quite competent and no worse than Ms. Malune who claimed 5lb the other day.

Selection:
10pts win – Kodimoor @ 7/2 Bet365

…….

7.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Lightly raced Shergiah should have more to offer now stepping up in trip after a decent comeback run at Lingfield over a mile where a sprint finish did not suit him.

However he looked quite good on his final run in 2016 when he landed a decent maiden at Ripon in impressive style, given how well he picked up once asked for full effort.

This good looking gelding has still a bit of scope to improve and in this not overly strong race he could get his season off to a flyer.

Selection:
10pts win – Shergiah @ 10/3 Paddy Power