“What if”…. I heard me saying more often than usual on Saturday. A day that went off to a flyer with an impressive win for Show Palace (3/1) at Chester, evolved into a frustrating afternoon and night when Dominating got beaten in the tightest of photos as Musselburgh and Lancaster Bomber didn’t get the breaks when needed to end up a fine runner-up, yet that’s meaningless for the bank account.
Capri won the Leger. The big horse, now a winner of two classics, as he also landed the Irish Derby earlier this year, justified the favourite tag and held on under pressure in the closing stages.
His stable mate and my selection Venice Beach seemed utilized as a pace maker unfortunately and never landed a blow. It’s something you got to deal with if you put money on Ballydoyle horses in these type of races.
Onwards and upwards – that’s racing….
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3.30 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile
Heavy going at Ffos Las today, conditions unlikely to suit too many. Though Born To Sea daughter Waves seemingly loves the mud, judged on her career best performance back in May at Bath.
She shot clear in the closing stages coming from a long way back and looked well ahead of her mark that day. Subsequently she went backwards, however has not seen soft ground ever since.
That changes today, where she also drops in class and a couple of pounds in the mark. This should be a real slog and I feel despite her recent disappointing efforts this will suit her down to the grounds. Waves certainly deserves another chance at a biggish price here.
A quick one for the night’s racing in Canada – after contemplating over it the whole day I finally came to the conclusion that Lancaster Bomber is a “good thing” in the Woodbine Mile.
If you draw a line through his Sussex Stakes run on unsuitable soft ground, you see a horse that has performed really well on quick surface this season in particular. An excellent 4th in the Guineas, when less than two lengths beaten by star miler Churchill and a runner-up effort in the St. James’s Palace Stakes qualifies as top class form.
Lancaster Bomber already has proven he does travel well too, as he was a fine 2nd in last years Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.
With lightning quick ground a given at Woodbine today, he surly meet his optimum conditions. Slight concerns over the wide draw and the likelihood of rider Wayne Lordan putting up a couple of pounds overweight, as the lowest he has ridden in the last 12 months has been 8st 4lb.
That probably will erode some of the weight advantage, as Lancaster Bomber would otherwise receive up to 12lb by World Approval. Nonetheless, he still will have less to carry than any other individual in the field while potentially being the smartest horse in the race.
Selection:
10pts win – Lancaster Bomber@ 4/1 William Hill
This type of race in this type of conditions won’t suit many in this field, but favourite Show Palace has a prime chance to bounce back to form. He already won three times this year and loves the mud plus looks still to have a bit more to offer with the right conditions.
Franny Norton in the saddle is another bonus, while the positive draw enhances his chances even further.
Selection:
10pts win – Show Palace @ 3/1 Skybet
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2.40 Chester: Listed Stand Cup Stakes, 1m 4f
Group 3 winning Duretto proves popular with punters though the well exposed and less sexy Soldier In Action is a better bet in my book. He thrives in tough conditions like the ones to expect at Chester today and stays all day long.
He didn’t land a blow in the Ebor, however won a tough handicap the same month of a mark off 106. So he’s clearly a smart operator. Rated within three pounds of Duretto, match fitness might prove and advantage for Mark Johnston’s inmate, I believe.
Selection:
10ts win – Soldier In Action @ 11/4 Paddy Power
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3.35 Doncaster: Group 1 St. Leger, 1m 6.5f
This years St. Leger shapes as an intriguing contest with five, six horses closely matched on ratings. No doubt, Irish Derby winner Capri warrants plenty of respect, though the ever improving Crystal Ocean, Stradivarius, Defoe and the filly Coronet all real chances to improve again with a big shout over the Leger trip.
However is the forgotten horse in the race another Ballydoyle runner? Venice Beach doesn’t get any love leading up to the race, even though he has some excellent form in the book too.
Sure, he looks short of top class over a mile and a quarter, however he shapes like a grinder who’s crying out for the trip. Watch back the Grand Prix de Paris, where he looked outpaced and beaten in the home straight. Yet he fought back gamely, found more and more and finished an excellent third.
At York in the Voltigeur he wasn’t a match for Cracksman. But he finished a clear second of some decent individuals. It might turn out that he simply is not a Group 1 animal, that says the trip and ground in combination make him a big danger to anyone in this field, I feel.
Selection:
10pts win – Venice Beach @ 14/1 Bet365
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5.15 Musselburgh: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 6f
I’ve been keen on Dominating the last time at York in the Melrose Handicap, though he flopped that day. We can draw a line through that I feel, though, given it was a very hot race. This is easier and it remains the fact that Irish St. Leger winner Jukebox Jury has an outstanding record with his first crop of three year old’s in Britain.
Contributing towards this has been the Mark Johnston trained Dominating himself, as he has won already three times this year, including over the 1m 6f trip and at Musselburgh.
I don’t think conditions will be an issue for him, in case the rain arrives. He didn’t perform the one time he raced on soft ground, but on pedigree it looks fine and he’s a different horse now, I believe.
Not all that often at Leopardstown you do see a horse swinging wide around the home bend trailing the field and then going on to win in impressive style. Yet Decorated Knight did exactly that….. from last to first – and in doing so landed the Irish Champions Stakes!
Hindsight is a beautiful thing. How could this lad go off at 25’s? He was full well entitled to have a big shout as the second highest rated individual in the field thanks to a Tattersalls Gold Cup success and a subsequent runner-up effort in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.
Credit to Andre Atzeni, who rode Decorated Knight to perfection, utilizing his turn of foot in the best possible way.
Odds-on favourite Churchill finished a disappointing 7th. Things got a bit messy in the home straight but that did not make too much of a difference. He was not good enough on the day. Maybe it was one race too many?
That ended the day with a rather shocking result for me punting wise too. 0 from 4, not a single one in the money. A day too forget…. albeit the brilliant performance by Decorated Knight may not be forgotten anytime soon.
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5.55 Curragh: Handicap, 1m 2f
The lucky last on Irish St. Leger day, an open contest where any more rain will not suit too many. However improving 3yo filly Jet Streaming will love any additional drop of rain over the course of the afternoon.
The lightly raced daughter of Born To Sea won impressively at the Galway Festival last month. Despite not breaking cleanly, being a bit too keen subsequently, and travelling off the pace in rear, she managed to motor home in the short straight to get up on the line.
It’s clear that Jet Streaming is crying out for a step up in trip. On pedigree this should work well too. She’s 2lb wrong in the weights, however given her progressive profile, ground and trip potentially in her favour, this should not make a difference.
With a good draw and from the lower end of the weight scale I reckon the Adrian Keatley trained filly has a cracking chance to land a big pot today.
Some interesting contenders here; soft ground winners Dee Ex Bee and Dark Acclaim make plenty of appeal. I, however, think Godolphin’s Dubhe looks one with a massive amount of improvement to come.
He left a fair debut behind when landing a maiden in soft conditions at Sandown. While that was not a true test and he holding the advantage as the sole front-runner, the fact that he won easily going away in the end in a sprint finish, while it looks abundantly clear that he needs further sooner rather than later, was impressive.
He stays over the mile trip, which in heavy conditions with potentially a quicker pace should suit him down to the grounds to play out class and stamina.
Superbly bred, by Dubawi out of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens, I feel he takes plenty of beating and therefore Dubhe is a tasty price.
Selection:
10pts win – Dubhe @ 5/1 Bet365
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5.05 Leopardstown: Group 3 Enterprise Stakes, 1m 4f
Eziyra is a fair favourite given her impressive form this season to make it back to back wins for trainer Dermot Wel. Though, Spanish Step has won a Group 3 earlier this season and has a fair shout here too.
That says stable mate and former Derby runner-up US Army Ranger is the x-factor in the race.
He drops in class and trip, and this combination should see him go very close judged on ratings. Yes, he has been a major disappointment ever since coming close to land the big prize at Epsom, however he still ran to a time speed rating of 94 when last seen, which is still the best in this field.
Selection:
10pts win – US Army Ranger @ 6/1 Bet365
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5.35 Leopardstown: Group 1 Matron Stakes, 1m
The class act is Winter. If all goes to plan she wins. She has a top draw and the bit of rain that may leave a bit of softness in ground won’t bother her.
In my mind she can only be beaten if the long season has left a mark on her. Then the French raider Qemah comes into the equation. Her wide draw is an issue, nonetheless she remains a big price and has a better chance.
The winner of last years Coronation Stakes had a light campaign up until now, won at Royal Ascot earlier this season and was an unlucky 4th behind Roly Poly in the Prix Rothschild when last seen.
At her best, and if she can overcome the draw disadvantage with the magic man in the saddle, she has a chance to trouble Winter.
Selection:
10pts win – Qemah @ 7/1 Bet365
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6.45 Leoapardstown: Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, 1m 2f
Twelve months ago it was the race of the races – something we racing fans hope for but see not enough of: the best take on the best. On the flat the best often try to avoid each other, if possible. The Irish Champion Stakes stood true to its name in 2016, though, and saw the best battle it out with the very best.
This year looked for a while a slightly underwhelming race in prospect. The stars of last year are either under performing or retired. However the week leading up to the big enjoyed a timely boost with the conformation of smart Eminent giving it a go against the almighty Churchill.
Eminent has enhanced his credentials with an impressive front-running performance in a Group 2 over 10 furlongs at Deavuille last month, after three winless efforts at the highest level. Is he quite up to the standard required to beat Churchill? We find out today.
The dual Guineas winner proved satisfactory his stamina when runner-up in the Juddmonte International. So neither ground nor trip hold any fear for the highest rated individual in this field.
He’s got the perfect draw and the help of one or two stable mates likely setting a good pace – I find it hard to look beyond him, to be honest. Yes, Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Decorated Night, or stable mate and Derby second Cliffs Of Moher are fine horses in their own right. But this looks all set for another Group 1 victory for Churchill.
I was keen on Big Baz when he ran a blinder in the big Logistics Handicap at York a fortnight ago. He finished an excellent sixth that day in a hot contest suggesting he’s back to somewhere near his best.
The handicapper dropped him 2lb subsequently which should give him a massive chance to outrun his price tag today given conditions will surely suit well with cut in the ground over his preferred trip.
Selction:
10pts win – Big Baz @ 10/1 Bet365
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5.30 Ascot: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
The lightly raced favourite African Friend looks sure to go well, though I prefer the experience of Duke Cosimo who drops to a dangerous mark here.
He hasn’t won for a long time, however showed some spark at Redcar when last seen in a hot race that already works out quite well. Softish ground is no issue for him and a 3lb claimer on board should help too.
Ended last week with a bang – Teodoro made all to win easily at Yarmouth despite drifting out to 8/1. So broke even for the week in the end. Not a bad result given how badly it started.
Can things look brighter this week? Granted today is my birthday, here’s hoping for a big winner!
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4.30 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Monticello struggled the last two times, however a drop in class may help. He also tackles older horses with WFA allowance still an advantage I feel.
He’s won only twice in his career, over 7f, though showed strong performances over 10f in hot class Handicaps earlier this year. The drying ground should help too.
Sire Teofilo does extremely well at this track and trip, and the usually prominent racing style of Monticello can often be a bonus at Ripon.
Flymetothestars cruelly denied in the closing stages of the Ebor… kind of sums up this week. Thankfully Hochfeld went on to win impressively at Newmarket (4/1) to lessen the agony.
In the evening over in the US there was some fantastic racing at Saratoga on Travers Day. It was an impressive coast-to-coast success for Mike Smith (yet again) the winning jockey on West Coast in the feature race.
However it was the Sword Dancer Stakes on turf that caught my eye even more. Aiden O’Brien trained Idahoo was the favourite, though faded badly. The home team landed the big money in a thrilling finish. Well worth to watch back as Julien Leparoux gave the winning Sadler’s Joy a tremendous joy, utilizing the special change of gear this improving individual possesses.
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2.55 Yarmouth: Class 4 Novice Stakes, 6f
Hard to know what to expect of this lot, however I happily take a chance on Frankel filly Ganayem. She cost some serious money as a yearling and naturally has a sensational pedigree, being not a daughter of the almighty Frankel but also half-sister to some graded winners on the dam side.
She has an entry for the Group 2 Rockfell Stakes next month, so you would expect she has to be ready if she wants to run there. As far as today goes, Frankel offspring tends to perform exceptionally well over the 6f trip on fast ground. He has a 70% win record with his two year olds under these conditions.
Selection:
10pts win – Ganayem@ 5/1 Bet365
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4.05 Yarmouth: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f
This race looks more open on paper than the betting suggests. Neither Another Eclipse nor Mafaaheem are deserve to be so much more fancied than some others in the field.
Mostly I feel hat-trick seeking Teodoro is the one all have to beet. He sets the standard in my mind. Yes, he steps up into unknown territory class wise, however his last two wins indicate that he clearly belongs here.
Upped in class and a revised mark make life tougher today, no doubt. Still, the combination of a hood fitted and more prominent racing tactics have seen this son of Teofilo transformed. He keeps improving and as 3yo old April foal he may not be the finished article yet.
Still searching for the elusive first winner of the week. Another rather disappointing run from my selection Galactic at Salisbury yesterday. Let’s not dwell on it. Huge day today. Ebor day!
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2.25 York: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f
Irish St. Leger winner Jukebox Jury has an outstanding record with his first three year old’s in Britain. Contributing towards this has been the Mark Johnston trained Dominating, who ha won already three times this year.
In fact in his last five starts Dominating has either won or finished second. The handicapper starts to catch up and going up significantly in class doesn’t make things easier.
Still, at a big price and off a very low weight, with conditions likely to suit, he can run a big race and cause an upset I feel.
Selection:
10pts win – Dominating@ 33/1 Paddy Power
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3.35 York: Class 2 Ebor Handicap, 1m 6f
Normally it is not my style punting the favourite in a big Handicap as the Ebor undoubtedly is, however there is so much to like about Flymetothestars that I can’t ignore the facts and feel despite being plenty short enough for a race like this there is still juice in the price.
Why? Well, you can try and read what you want into his form this season, whether a third in the Northumberland Plate was a slight disappointment or not, but fact is this lad is the least exposed in the field, who tackles turf for the first time from the lower end of the weight scale.
There is very chance for further improvement to come. He is a well bred son of Sea The Stars, so ground and trip aren’t an issue at all and his older sons are progressing.
The draw is an issue so is the fact Flymetothestars can be very keen early on. Also does missing the kick become a habit? Nonetheless if the stars fall right then he is very hard to beat indeed.
The three year old Hochfeld has a prime chance here returning to the most suitable 1m 6f trip. His runner-up performance behind Tor at Hamilton is a very strong piece of form. A return to that will see him hard to beat here.
He is still progressing after a busy juvenile campaign won twice at the beginning of the year and followed up with the strong mentioned performance at Hamilton. A slightly disappointing run at Goodwood the last time, though conditions may have been against him.
Selection:
10pts win – Hochfeld @ 4/1 Bet365
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4.15 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 7.5f
This today is arguably the toughest test of his long career, yet Echo Of Lightning appears still improving at the grand age of 7 as he has won already three times this year and has been impressively consistent over the last 12 months.
He has to defy a career highest mark and an impressive display at Pontefract earlier this month, though he might have been helped by the rain and small field.
Nonetheless the numbers tell he improved in each of his last five runs and with a decent draw, a bit of cut in the ground and a sort of specialist trip at a specialist track, he can run big I feel.
Selection:
10pts win – Echo Of Lightning @ 15/2 Skybet
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7.55 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
At 16’s I’m happy to take a punt on Majestic Stone who lost his race at the start when seen last and has to bounce back from that. He’s never been the best starter, so that is an obvious concern, however the return to quick ground is a big plus.
His best performance to date came on good to firm at Thirsk in April. He was unlucky the day and the form has been franked. Up four pounce from there he has confirmed he is up to that sort of mark the next time, however with cut in the ground.
Slight change of gear today, better ground and hopefully a better start may him see go close at a big price.
Selection:
10pts win – Majestic Stone @ 16/1 Bet365
That was special, wasn’t it? Yet again. Enable keeps giving and giving and giving. What a star filly once more in the care of John Gosden. Sure, she was entitled to win and to win with something to spare. Still, to demolish her high class rivals in the way she did – you simply have to be impressed.
All systems go for the Arc now. She is a short favourite to land the biggest of them all. If she turns up in top form she will take plenty of beating. That says we know the Arc is a unique race in its own right and in a big field the draw can alienate chances in the blink of an eye.
Anyways; that’s for another day. For now, sit back and enjoy racing at its best:
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6.20 Salisbury: Class 5 Nursery, 1m
27 alerts in my tracker this morning – yet only one single selection remains after a long morning of intense study. This week has not been a lucky one so far. Can a Richard Hannon trained colt turn the table?
Galactic is his name and he is quite a well bred son of Roderic O’connor. Three obligatory starts in maidens, now first time in a Nursery and upped to a more suitable 1 mile trip – off a pretty handy opening mark, I reckon Galatctic can go really well in this very winnable race.
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