USA

Arlington Million: Mosse holds the key

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Arlington: Arlington Million (Group 1), 1m 2f

Two Europeans that tick plenty of the right boxes here: the German Wake Forest, who is a multiple Group 3 winner in his native country; and the French Bookrunner, who hasn’t hugely impressive form in the book, but steps up to 10f for the first time, which on pedigree can work in his favour. What both have in common: A good draw and first time on the juice (lasix).

I want to narrow it down to one selection. While the German horse is clearly the form choice, he is one who usually comes from off the pace. That could be difficult here. Bookrunner in contrast can lead and will probably do so in the experienced hands of Gerald Mosse.

Bookrunner may simple be a late developer. He showed a bit of promise in two starts this season, but this new trip can potentially bring out the best of him.

Bookrunner @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

USA

Wedding Vow can improve big time in Beverly D.

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Arlington: Beverly D. Stakes (Group 1), 1m 1f 110y

Highland Reel has kicked proceedings off for Aiden O’Brien in most dramatic style. Stable mate Wedding Vow may well be able to follow-on from there. She three year old filly has shown nice progress this season and was an excellent runner-up behind top class Legatissimo at Glorious Goodwood – a very strong piece of form which makes her.

However given the fact that she is on lasix for the first time today, may see her improving big time. I said it before and won’t get tired of it: Lasix is performance enhancing and we see it time and time again when the Europeans come over to the US and race on it for the first time.

Wedding Vow @ 3/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

USA

Highland Reel hard to beat in Secretariat

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Highland Reel

Arlington: Secretariat Stakes (Group 1), 1m 2f

Today is the day where Highland Reel can pay back – pay back for what I lost on him when being bullish enough before the season to believe he’s the winner of the English 2000 Guineas. He hasn’t quite developed into the superstar I hoped. But he is a very good horse, nonetheless. Runner-up in the French Derby and fair winner of a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood – he deserves a shot on a Group 1.

Today is the best chance he’ll ever find to win a top level race. The Secretariat Stakes is not a bad race, in fact the field is competitive. But he’s probably the most talented horse in the field – however he’s also on the juice today. What I mean: Lasix!

My stance on lasix is clear. I condemn it. It is performance enhancing. Particularly for those European horses who travel over to the US and are on it for the first time. It can have  a major impact on performance.

If Seamie Heffernan keeps things simple and stays out of trouble, I can’t see how Highland Reel can lose this.

Highland Reel @ 7/4 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Night Fancies

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

5.55: Doncaster: Class Handicap, 10f

Scurr Mist makes plenty of appeal if he stays the trip, while Jan De Heem is in excellent form at the moment. But top weight Barren Brook could have too much on his plate for this lot, stepping up to 10f again. He wasn’t as his best over 7f the last time, a trip too sharp for him these days, but wasn’t disgraced in a couple of 10f handicaps before.

Off a mark off 75 with the precious 5lb claim of a good apprentice in the saddle, at a track he has won over this trip before – he must go close.

Barren Brook @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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7.35 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Not much depth in this field which should play into hands of consistent Cottesloe who’s almost certain to run to his mark off 68 which should be good enough to win this race. He ran his heart out at Sandown the last when he wasn’t best positioned, but stayed on strongly. suggesting a return to 12f will suit.

He was desperately unlucky not to win a Doni Handicap before, when following up on a strong UK debut success. He has been a good All-Weather horse over in Ireland and should be a shorter price in my book.

Cottesloe @ 4/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Mrs Warren’s golden opportunity

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5.00 Lingfield: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 6f

Top weight Angel Flores makes plenty of appeal from a good draw if he enjoys the soft ground. A better alternative is Mrs Warren who gets a chance from the handicapper. Not disgraced at Galway recently, the drop to 6f suits, she loves every drop of rain in the ground, has a good draw and will be competitive off her current mark. Big chance.

Mrs Warren @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Selections: Ripon + Newbuary

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3.00 Ripon: Handicap Class 2, 6f

Bottom weight Art Obsession could be massively underestimated if the drop in trip does the trick for him. Still lightly raced, one can excuse his latest performance which the first below par one in his career. He proved to be consistent in six starts before.

He’s unproven over 6f and it could well be all happing a bit too quick here for him, but he usually shows good early speed over 7f, so it may well work. He has form on soft ground as well, so on balance might find conditions just about right. With an excellent 5lb claimer on board today he comes into this race as an absolute feather weight, and I find that hugely attractive.

Art Obsession @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.15 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Super well bred Illusive has never lived up to his pedigree (full-brother to Rip Van Winkle) and has left Aiden O’Brien’s camp over the winter. Leaving his seasonal comeback run aside, he has performed with loads of credit in his last couple of starts. Stepped up to 9f at Goodwood the last time, he was probably a shade unlucky as he didn’t get a clear run ofer 2f out but finished like a train.

He is 3lb up for this effort, however goes up another furlong in trip which could work well for him. More importantly he gets soft ground for the first time since winning on this type of ground a competitive maiden at Leopardstown almost exactly one year ago. That may enable him to pull out a bit more today.

Illusive @ 8/1 Beftred – 5pts Win

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8.05 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Fine Tune hasn’t anything in three maidens for John Gosden last year. Subsequently sold, he starts for a new yard today in his first handicap. He has been gelded in the meantime, which is why I’m mostly interested in him. This often works wonders for his father Medicean’s offspring.

He hasn’t shown anything to warrant an opening mark of 55 and the yard is in poor form. So he well finish last. But the trip should work in his favour and he is related to some decent individuals, which means potentially he could be better than his current rating. It’s worth a try.

Fine Tune @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Selections: Newbury

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3.10 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

I don’t understand why Beach Bar is such a big price. This progressive gelding absolutely hammered a decent field on his penultimate start and was utterly unlucky the last time at Newmarket when he got stuck in traffic on the inside rail but stayed on very well late when in the clear.

That performance indicates he may can overcome his career highest mark. Today looks a good opportunity for a big run with the trip to suit and the soft ground no inconvinience, which can’t be said for all in this field.

Beach Bar @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.45 Newbury: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Here Comes When tops the list as the most likely winner. He hasn’t been disgraced in top class company this year and will thrive in these conditions. Same goes for last years winner Breton Rock, although this years renewal looks much stronger.

But from a price perspective I can’t leave Heavens Guest out. He may not be good enough at this level, but has been in outstanding form lately and deserves a go at this. He’ll love the soft ground and is a 7f specialist – he can go close.

Hugely underestimated seems to be That Is The Spirit. He also one who needs it soft and seems best suited to the 7f trip. He won a Listed race in excellent style earlier this year and has excuses for two hist last two poor showings.

That Is The Spirit @ 22/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Heavens Guest @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Friday Selections: Process worth a nibble

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3.20 Newbury: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 3f

It highly likely that Sagaciously is well in today and may be hard to beat if runs to his potential. Trip and ground will suit, no doubt. But it’s a big field and he is badly drawn out in the carpark. I feel he is a decent price, but I don’t want to invest in it.

Fellow three year old Process makes plenty of appeal at a much bigger price in my mind. He didn’t impress in his last two starts but bumped into very progressive individual and the forms of those races holds up. With a mark off 87 he is now only 2lb higher than when winning a good Handicap at Kempton, so he may be well treated today going against older horses for the first time .

The weight for age allowance should be a big help as he’s quite a big, scopey horse, and looks very mature. From the bottom of the weights he should fare well in this field where many are exposed. The softish ground is an unknown, but his sire thrived on it. So it’s well worth a try.

Process @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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3.35 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Unexposed handicap newcomer Burner must have an excellent chance to open his account. He’s not all too badly bred, half-brother Magic Of Reality. He showed some promise in three maidens but will find it now easier in handicaps. His opening mark is fair, and the step up in trip is interesting. He has a good chance to stay on quick ground.

The son of High Chaparral has been gelded since his last run, an action that should yield in improvement as it often does for HC offspring. There is some fair opposition in the field, but if Burner shows the natural progress that is expected he’ll be hard to beat.

Burner @ 3/1 Betfred – 10pts Win

Ireland

Preview: Leopardstown – Desmond Stakes

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Jockeys Joe O'Brien

7.25 Leopardstown: Desmond Stakes (Group 3), 1m

It’s easy to see why Cougar Mountain is odds-on. He took on some of the hottest milers in the world this season and didn’t fare to badly. I feel, though, he has been flattered by the results. he doesn’t seem to have the cruising speed required to win at top level. Nonetheless that gives him a clear shot at an easier target today. He’s vulnerable to the younger horses, though.

Of the tiro of three year olds, Tamadhor is hard to fancy, but Convergence and Raydara must have excellent chances to win this race. The former one has already won a Group 3 at this track earlier this year. He carries a penalty for the success but with further improvement might be able to defy it.

However everything points to a big run of Raydara. The filly is a juvenile Group 2 winner and will appreciate the quick ground today. It was  a tough assignment to kick off her classic campaign in the Irish 1.000 Guineas where she didn’t land a blow, not surprisingly. But her subsequently 4th place in the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes rates a big performance. She travelled like the winner until the final furlong marker, found the 9f trip then a bit too far eventually.

Dropped back to a mile, on quick ground, she should be a big runner. She receives tons of weight all around from her rivals and on this terms she looks the most likely winner in the race for me. I consider her to be overpriced at 7/2 in this small field.

Raydara @ 7/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Thursday Selections: Moohaarib can bounce back

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Banging on the post at the moment…. and it hurts. Massive performance from Commodore at Kempton last night, overcame the widest draw and finished strongly… however to win you had to be positioned in front pack of the race, where the eventual winner came from. another runner-up effort. It’s one of those losing runs I guess…

4.25 Salisbury: Sovereign Stakes (Group 3), 1m

Plenty of classy individuals in the line-up; last years winner Captain Cat will have a shot again but may find this a hotter renewal. Custom Cut at head of the field is likely to run his usual race from the front. He’s always dangerous if allowed to lead. His penalty won’t make it easy when it’s crunch time, though.

Classy Kodi Bear heads the challenge of the classic generation. His weigh for age allowance is a big asset and he hasn’t done much wrong this year. He’ll be very competitive, however I feel he is not the right price in this competitive field. Tullius drops back to 1m which may not suit on the quick ground. But he certainly has found his form again.

Even the big outsiders Short Squeeze and Dark Emerald can’t be discounted here and have a chance to pick up some price money. But the 6/1 for progressive Moohaarib looks over the top. He flopped in the Lockinge, but that was a Group 1 and he may not have shown his true class that day. Imagine he wouldn’t have run that day and would come into today with his penultimate form, he’d be clear favourite I guess.

He looked smart when winning a Listed contest at Ascot, travelling like a dream and never saw the whip. If he can find back to that form he’ll be hard to beat I feel.

Moohaarib @ 6/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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6.15 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

You can easily discount half the field here, but the front two horses in the market have strong credentials to be the ones fighting it out. Alfajer judged on her recent efforts hast to go close; whether she will truly stay the trip is another matter. For that reason, as well as her revised mark, she is short enough a price.

The most likely winner is Wee Jean in my eyes. She can make it three on the bounce tonight. The trip may not quite her optimum but she stays it and while she has to overcome a high enough mark, tonight is the ideal opportunity to do so.

Nonetheless the best value in the field represents 9/1 chance Sulaalaat. Forgive her the last performance at Newmarket, she is better judged on her strong Listed effort at Royal Ascot where she attempted to make all. The mile trip should be what she wants judged on her pedigree, and she probably hasn’t shown us her best yet.

In my eyes she deserves another chance and today is a good opportunity to prove whether she is a half decent filly or not. First time head gear could make a big difference, and if can squeeze out a bit of improvement, she will go very close here.

Sulaalaat @ 9/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe