Category Archives: United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Azmaam’s overpriced in Newmarket Stakes

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

With Aiden O’Brien’s Aloft out, this looks a strange little race. Nothing really sticks out and everything depends on the potential improvement to come from each individual runner. That says on pure form I believe Azmaam is hugely overpriced. This lightly raced Dark Angel colt is bound to run a big race!

His three year old campaign started in the 200k Tattersalls Millions over course and distance last montj. Azmaam was a fair juvenile but went with clear doubts about his stamina into this race. He travelled like a dream though, but didn’t get a run whatsoever until the final furlong marker when he got finally into the clear, albeit only briefly, producing an instant turn of foot which looked like to be a decisive move, just to run out off room again soon after.

It’s fair to say that with a clear run he probably would have won. The winner of the race went on to finish a creditable runner-up in a Group 3 subsequently, so this form looks not a bad one at all.

Same conditions here for this 1m 2f contest at Newmarket and Azmaam must have a big chance to win this if he is in the same kind of form and can get a clearer run this time.

Newmarket Stakes (Listed), 1m 2f
Azmaam @ 7/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Amazing Speed can live up to her name

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

Punchestown is truly alive! Some great jump racing all along, though a shame that Hurricane Fly didn’t quite get home strongly enough to beat old foe Jezki in the big 3m Hurdle. He remains a hero nonetheless, but probably deserves his retirement now. Anyway, betting wise I concentrate on the flat these days and there is a very interesting maiden at Lingfield’s All-Weather taking place….

4.10 Lingfield: Maiden 7 furlongs

A hot little race – I’m most interested in Godolphin’s Amazing Speed, though. This big, scopy filly is really well bred and no doubt will get much further in time. She should be good enough to get off the mark in a maiden over the seven furlong trip, however I hope. She really caught my eye in a competitive maiden over the same distance at Newmarket during the Craven meeting.

She didn’t quite enjoy the run of the race from her position further back in the field and was a bit short of room around 2f out. She had to switch in order to get a clear run but showed greenness, which is no surprise on her debut run. But the way she finished the race under a light hands and heels ride was utterly impressive.

Jockey James Doyle has only this one ride tomorrow, and that in itself is telling. They must rate the filly highly and I would hope for a big performance tomorrow, also given the fact that she should relish the All-Weather given her pedigree.

Amazing Speed @ 2/1 Paddy Power – 10pts win

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Big chance on Handicap debut for Victoriously

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Plenty of unexposed types in this race and naturally this can be a bit like a guessing game. That says I feel the Brian Meehan trained Victoriously is potentially underestimated on his Handicap debut.

The Azamour colt ran a dismal race on his seasonal reappearance in a hot maiden at Newbury earlier this week. Probably a performance to ignore and he should strip fitter this time. It’s more interesting what he has done as a juvenile last season.

Victoriously  improved massively from his debut run last summer when he finished a good third over 7.5f at Lingfield’s turf. He was very green throughout the race that day, most of the time without cover too but showed a bit of talent the way he made progress from 3f out. That was enough to suggest he could turn into a nice individual and was put away for the rest of the year as he was always one who should improve with age given his pedigree.

Pedigree is the key: He tackles 12f for the first time here. It’s quite a dramatic step up in trip but connections must feel this is the best thing to do to give him a chance to win. He is out of a 7.5f Listed race winning mare but she is by Monsun and in general there is plenty of stamina on both sire and dam side, which suggests the step up in trip is the right move indeed. He has a very good chance to stay the trip, particularly on a sound surface.

He will be first time blinkered tomorrow. That may help to sharpen him up. Most interestingly is his open handicap mark. A moderate 67 gives him every chance and could underestimate his true merit, particularly over a trip more suitable.

8.00 Windsor: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 3f 135y
Victoriously @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Symbolic Star can improve big time!

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This intriguing Handicap over one mile for three year olds looks not like an easy race to call, however I can’t let Godolphin’s Symbolic Star go for a big looking price. A cautious bet, yes, as it is not quite clear what to expect from some of the others, but cautious only to an extend. Let’s take a look at his rivals here first.

The Richard Hannon inmate Maftoon won on the Chelmsford All-Weather when last seen. He did that nicely and progressed from his juvenile season. But now switched to turf of a mark off 86 in a hot race much more is required. He looks a bit smalish as well, I can’t see him as a well handicapped individual.

Lingfield scorer Alfajer makes much more appeal. She won really well back in October 2014 and the step up to 1m should suit. Botti has his horses well at this early stage of the season, so wouldn’t be a surprise to see her go close. She’s drifting in the betting though, which is a slight worry.

Grand Spirit finished a good deal beaten at Brighton on his seasonal reappearance. The form works out well with the winner hacking up subsequently. He should improve but that says he has to if he wants to go close here.

Paco Boy son Sarsted won a poor maiden last season. There might be more to come. Darshini could easily be a better three year old but has been off the track for a long time. Darrington drops in trip which will help. He’s interesting as the feather weight with a 5lb claimer in the saddle.

That brings me back to Symbolic Star. He steps up to 1m now, which should clearly suit on pedigree. An opening mark off 85 looks stiff at first glance, but if assessing his form a bit closer, one has to get the impression that it could also be fair, maybe even lenient.

On his debut he finished a close 3rd over too short 5f in a very hot maiden, with the first and second franking the form. The runner-up won a Group 3 subsequently for example. His success in a rather poor Wolverhampton maiden over 7f was visually very impressive then. He seemed to have wintered well and the change of gear was excellent. In my eyes he has the most potential of them all in this field, and if he can cope with the quick ground, he should be hard to beat.

7.00 Doncaster: Class 3 Handicap, 3yo, 1m
Symbolic Star @ 3/1 Bet365 – 5pts win

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Thanks AP!

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It’s all out and over – Anthony McCoy has officially retired from race riding. His long career has come to an end at Sandown Park today. He finished in third place in his last ever race on appropriately named Box Office. When he jumped off, a visible emotional Anthony McCoy was no longer an active jockey.

Much has been said over the course of the recent days, weeks and months since AP announced his retirement towards the end of the season. That says there isn’t much that I could add to it that hasn’t been said before already. But one last thing:

Enjoy your retirement Anthony. You’re a legend. I hope you’re in a good place and you’ll find plenty of things that keep you happy and occupied after a long life of race riding. It ain’t be easy. But you champ, you can do it. #Thanks AP!

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Professor can bounce back at Haydock

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Open looking contest. Not many make appeal on their current Handicap rating. Some of the bigger prices are interesting, so is Lincoln expected to run bigger dropped in trip. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Emell improved either. But a chance is taken on Professor.

The Michal Attwater inmate was disappointing at Meydan in recent month, but performed with loads of credit last season in hot races off higher higher marks. He dropped down to a rating of 101 now and judged on old form should be very competitive here over trip and ground to suit.

He loves the Haydock track, has won three times from five runs here including a CD success. Professor was a strong winner of a Conditions Stakes race last summer, having some fair pattern class performers behind him. He also was placed the Wookingham Handicap of a mark off 108. Anything close to those performances, and he has a big chance today.

3.30 Haydock: Handicap (Class 2) 7f
Professor @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Preview – Sandown Mile

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Bow Creek

I love milers. Why? It’s simple: 1 mile races are the perfect combination of speed and stamina. Now, what does this say? I’m feeling quite excited about the Sandown Mile on Friday afternoon. My all-time favourite miler Paco Boy won this race twice during his illustrious career. So this race really has a special place in my heart.

That says we have a cracking renewal on our hands! Some smart, progressive milers are going to post. There might be bigger targets on their radar further down the line, but this is a good starting point. A real pointer in fact!

The jury is out on Shifting Power in my mind. He ran a cracker in last years 2.000 Guineas and backed it up with a fine second in the Irish equivalent behind Kingman. He ran another cracker in defeat in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat that summer. But was subsequently a huge disappointment n lesser grade when last season in 2014.

His trainer feels he’s a Group 1 winner in the making. The form tells so, to an extend. I always thought he lacks the extra bit of speed required at the highest level, though. Now, the Sandown Mile is a Group 2 and Shifting Power entitled to be favourite. Particularly since he is in receive of weight from other main rivals. But his price is nothing more than fair. At 11/4 there are better alternatives.

The Irish trained Custom Cut really made gigantic progress last year. He won a couple of races, including the Group 2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket. I expect him to be ready for the race and a bold bid is expected. I’m just slightly worried that he certainly needs the lead to be seen at his best. However he may be challenged here, or at least won’t have it all that easy from the front with horses chasing him.

Here Comes When won two Group 2’s toward the end of last season. He’s been clearly progressive and an exciting prospect. However the quick ground certainly counts against him at Sandown. He seems sure to be seen to best effect with cut in the ground. For that simple reason he looks opposable to me.

By far the most exciting individual in this field is Bow Creek. Now trained by Charlie Appleby, he was a two times Group 2 winner last season for Mark Johnston. He landed the Celebration Mile at Goodwood from the front, despite hanging badly in the closing stages. He followed up with a gutsy success on Irish Champions Weekend.

Cheek-pieces fitted for the first time should help him to stay focused in the closing stages, as sometimes things seem to distract him and he can hang. No doubt he has bigger targets this year and will come on for the run, but he’ll love the fast ground and the track should suit as well. He looks a big price to me.

The rest of the field has allot to find against the main contenders. Baltic Knight went close to beat Custom Cut in a Listed event last year, but hasn’t been in any sort of form similar to that when seen recently. Fast conditions may not be quite suitable for Breton Rock and Master Carpenter. Top Notch Tonto would not be out of it if he could run to something like his performance in the Group 2 Boomerang Mile. But it’s not easy to see to be honest.

Verdict: A cracking renewal with some rally exciting horses in the line-up… you can’t ask for more. That says the penalties for last seasons successes make it an even more intriguing contest, in that sense that Shifting Power has no excuses receiving 5lb from his main rivals. However betting wise I’m sweet on Bow Creek. He has tons of potential plus track, trip, ground will suit perfectly.

2.30 Sandown: Bet365 Mile (Group 2)
Bow Creek @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Scopey Bow and Arrow can win again

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CD scorer Pleiades proves popular in the betting. He may well have much more to offer now as a three year old. He won well here at Beverly when seen the last time in September 2014. He’ll go certainly close if fit for this seasonal reappearance. Though the opening mark looks rather stiff judged on his two year old form.

All-Weather performers Enlace and Crack Shot have fine recent form in the book and make this race an intriguing contest. But it is Godolphin’s Bow and Arrow who makes most appeal. This Iffraaj son certainly has the looks. He is big and scopey and still lightly raced, with more improvement likely to come.

He showed a great attitude to win a 7f Handicap on the Lingfield All-Weather earlier this month. Right up with the pace, he was heavily challenged in the final stages of the race but fought gamely back and held on to win. Now back on turf and only 3lb up for this performance, he may well be better than that. Beverley should suit his style of racing perfectly and the quick ground shouldn’t be a problem either.

3.00 Beverley: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
Bow and Arrow @ 9/4 PP – 10pts win

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Who Dares Wins’s The Value In Epsom Finale

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The last race one on the card at Epsom today is quite an interesting Handicap for three year olds with potentially some fair individuals in the line-up. That says there could be one or another horse underestimated on a rather low mark. If that is the short priced favourite American Artist, well I’m not so sure. He won a maiden well last year, but nothing came really out of that and the step up in trip isn’t entirely sure to suit. Let’s take him on.

There are plenty of interesting alternatives. The Godolphin gelding New Strategy for example. There could be more to come over this 9f trip. Lear’s Rock is on a hat-trick and may well be able to overcome a penalty. Lightly raced Deerfield also can’t be discounted.

However I do like most the Hannon trained Jeremy colt Who Dares Wins. He improved for his second start last season and run eye-catchingly on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton earlier this month. The 7f trip was maybe a bit too sharp that day and he was poorly positioned when the leaders kicked on. Though he travelled well for a long time and looked almost a non-trier entering the home straight while running out an easy third in the end.

You would imagine that he will come on for the run and has a bit more to offer on his Handicap debut, which is only his fourth start, off a low opening mark. The trip should be fine on quick ground to suit and as the bottom weight he may well be able to exploit a lenient looking mark. The fact that Sean Levey is coming here for this one ride only, is interesting too.

5.05 Epsom: Class 4 Handicap, 9f, 3yo 
Who Dares Wins @ 9/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win

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Can Sennockian Star bounce back?

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Very interesting day at Epsom tomorrow. It’s the Derby Trial Day. Exciting Christophermarlowe is the hot favourite to land the feature race on the card. If you have red my Horses To Follow List then you’ll know by know that I’m pretty sweet on this son of Tapit. The trip will certainly suit tomorrow and I expect a big run.

Betting wise I’m most intrigued by the 1m 2f Handicap, though. An open & competitive looking contest but I’m not sure if the right horses are at the head of the market. I can see why What About Carlo is favoured to run well after a fair effort in the Lincoln Handicap. The step to 10f should suits perfectly, given that he won over course and distance last year. Though a caree best is required on ground that didn’t seem to suit in the past.

The progressive Mount Logan may relish the fast surface in contrast, but will he be able to cope as well with the drop in trip? Recent Windsor winner Collaboration takes a steep rise in class. He looked good winning a class 5 Handicap, but much more is required here. Fire Fighting looks not out of this by all means, however has to overcome a very tough mark.

For me by far the most interesting runner is Sennockian Star. He won this very same race last year and won another big Handicap at Glorious Goodwood of a 4lb higher mark than what he is rated right now, and with conditions very much to suit, one would hope that he can run well.

He is a horse that can be on or off and you never quite know when he is on a good day. His recent form isn’t too inspiring, but the gradual drop in the mark, plus a track and conditions to suit could see him easily being there or thereabouts. He looks a tasty price and offers value in this field.

3.55 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f
Sennockian Star @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts win