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Outback Traveller Deserves Another Chance

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Cork Racecourse

Mixed Saturday from a betting perspective. 1 winner with Ogbourne Downs, though by the smallest of margins. My initial feeling right after the race was: It’s lost. But the photo proved “decisive”. OD stuck his nose out when it mattered. What a relieve! Otherwise it would have been a tough day because Gabrial and Jakob Black both ran superb but only managed to finish 2nd. Lily’s Prince and Snow Cloud never gave me a run for my money. So, after all, a small profit.

Before I move on to Sunday: Let’s briefly mention the performance of the day: Twilight Son at York today. He followed up with another massively impressive display and his way is clearly paved towards Group racing from now on. No surprise, though. As I felt already after his win on 2000 Guineas day that’s he a Group horse in the making.

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4.00 Salisbury: Cathedral Stakes (Listed), 6f

I can see why Absolutely So is market leader in this Listed contest, given his recent third place in a competitive Group 3. That says the likely very fast ground does definitely count against him. He has zero form in these kind of conditions.

Three year old Markaz has, though. However after nine career starts he still has only a maiden win to his name, though he performed with credit in most races, more often than not against classy opposition. This here is probably easier, and conditions will suit. But as a 3yo, despite weight for age, It’s a tough assignment.

A wind op helped Ruwaiyan to find back to form when he won a good Handicap at Goodwood in May. A subsequent poor effort in Listed company at Windsor may be forgiven and he is certainly one of the likelier sorts in this race.

Minalisa was a long way beaten in the very same race but probably needed the run. She is best judged on her Listed win at Naas in fast conditions last year. She is a definite contender if back on song.

Personally I’m most fascinated by Outback Traveller. He was very progressive as a juvenile as well as three year old. His Ascot win in October was nothing short of sensational. Admittedly he doesn’t seem to have grown over the winter but seem to have retained allot of his ability as he proved at Kempton on his seasonal debut when just beaten in a photo as to top weight by the very well handicapped Speculative Bid.

Under an even bigger weight he struggled the next time at Ascot when travelling to close to a suicidal pace, while Speculative Bid won the race, clearly franking the Kempton form. Outback Traveller drops back to 6f now which I feel suits this speedy sort, so should the quick ground. I’m inclined to give him another chance and find out once for all if he’s equally as good a four year old as he was in the last two seasons.

Outback Traveller @ 7/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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4.40 Cork: Cork Derby (Premier Handicap), 1m 4f

An unsettled betting market and a wrong favourite – there aren’t many horses who make appeal in the Cork Derby. That is because fast conditions won’t suit many. Unsinkable appears to be Ger Lyons’s number one in this race, but stable mate Unrequited could likely be better suited by this test.

He clearly acts on fast ground and has the trip well within his range. He won a Handicap in emphatic fashion on his seasonal reappearance, effectively on the the bridle. He stepped up to 2m subsequently and travelled like the winner at the Curragh three weeks, though failed to stay eventually. He could still be well handicapped is my feeling and this race should suit down to the grounds.

I nominate a second selection for this race as I can’t split the two: Break My Mind for the in-form yard of Eddie Lynam. The filly is likely to be ready for her seasonal reappearance, and if that’s the case then she’s a big runner. It took her five races to get off the mark last year but she won a 12f maiden on fast ground at Fairyhouse in nice fashion back in September. Soft ground and drop in trip didn’t quite suit the next time but she still finished third when on her final start in 2014. But conditions will suit here at Cork and a mark off 82 seems more than fair.

Break My Mind @ 9/1 – William Hill 5pts Win
Unrequited @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Saturday’s Racing: On The Hunt For Winners

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.20 Sandown: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Whether some of the more lightly raced individuals can improve to a level that’ll see them going close is debatable, but the very much in-form Jacob Black is sure to have a prime chance once again.

The four year old is getting better with every race, and after getting close in a hot Newmarket Handicap on his seasonal debut, he made all to win here at Sandown a fortnight ago. The winning margin was tight in the end but Jacob Black got a bit lonely in front inside the final furlong and was actually eased down towards the end. He had still a bit in hand.

The Handicapper has given him a chance to prove his class and raised his mark by only 3lb. He may not be able to dictate this bigger field as he did the last time, but he has a good draw and should be in an ideal position when it matters.

Jacob Black @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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2.45 Navan: Handicap (60-95), 6f

Quick ground is a rarity in Ireland so there isn’t too much fast ground form on offer in this field. However Lily’s Prince is sure to appreciate the underfoot conditions. She has been it pretty good form in recent weeks. A fine success at Cork, followed up with a sixth place in a hot Tipperary sprint.

On paper this last performance doesn’t look inspiring, but the drop to 5f wasn’t suitable and she lost something at the start. She appeared dangerous briefly from 2f out but was found out for speed eventually. This slightly longer trip is what she needs, and with conditions to suit, she may have still a bit to offer from her current mark in an open enough affair.

Lily’s Prince @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.10 York: Ganton Stakes (Listed)

The race evolves around the question whether Wannabe Yours is 100% today and if he’s improved from three to four. Last years form is outstanding and gives him a leading chance no doubt. 3/1 looks tempting I admit, but with these question marks flying around I do opt for the form horse at twice the price.

That’s Lincoln winner Gabrial. Conditions come just right for him today with a bit of rain getting into the ground and his recent 4th in Listed Handicap over course and distance gives him a big chance. That day as top weight he had a really tough task assigned and was just beaten in the closing stages by progressive horses with less weight.

The form works out really well, though and Gabrial should find this here actually a bit easier, given he’s on level weights with his rivals. He is holding his form well and is likely to run his race today – which may be good enough to win.

Gabrial @ 7/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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5.25 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

I agree with the betting here: Bowson Fred is a very worthy favourite and has plenty in favour. Good draw, form and conditions. But the fact that he has gone close in all his recent starts without winning suggest he is vulnerable nonetheless.

In contrast if you can forgive Snow Cloud his recent poor showing, you’ll see a progressive, talented and improved filly. Ripon’s 6f in softish conditions were just not what she wanted but she showed true class on her seasonal debut at Redcar in quick conditions over 5f.

Travelling strongly, and producing a nice turn of foot, she looked to have loads in hand. Judged on that performance she might be still better than her current mark off 81, although this is a tougher race and Chester from draw five is something of an unknown experience to her. If she handles it, she is sure to be a big runner.

Snow Cloud @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Racing at Hoppegarten

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Monday Night, the first of June – It’s windy, chilly and lashing down – Summer seems far away. But if you’re a racing fan this doesn’t matter to you. You’re going racing because you love the sport and if the opportunity arises to pay a visit to a new track you do it.

I am a racing fan and off I went to Berlin-Hoppegarten earlier this week, braving nature. It was supposed to be the highlight of my time in Germany’s massive capital, where parts of my family live. Racing’s always on my mind, though, so to miss the intended visit of Berlin’s only racecourse for thoroughbreds (there are also two tracks for harness racing) was out of question. Regardless of how bad the  weather might be.

Hoppegarten racecourse is conveniently situated in the suburbs of Berlin, easily accessible with public transport. Leaving the hustle and bustle of the booming city behind, it can be a welcome change of scenery: Hoppegarten is a green oasis, full of charm and character, with a beautiful old wooden grand stand.

Hoppegarten Grandstand

Once you arrive in Hoppegarten you’re going to be greeted by a relaxed atmosphere, while a delicious smell is waving through the air – a mix of freshly cut turf and charcoal-grilled Bratwurst!

No, it wasn’t exactly top class racing on offer that night – eight races, some more or less decent handicaps… no signs of glamour at all. But hey, this is Hoppegarten, not Royal Ascot!

Nonetheless a loyal crowd gathered around the parade ring for the first race – only a class 4 Handicap – to watch in awe the runners preparing. In desperate conditions the eventual winner Niron came flying down the stretch to win in style under a well timed ride from René Piechulek. After their heroics, horse and jockey paraded in front of the stands bathing in the rain but more importantly a warm applause from the locals.

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And so it went on, a wet night, eight races, most of them producing some exciting finishes. There was loads of cheering and clapping, horses parading, owners, trainers and jockey joyful as if they’d won the Derby! It was a unique, honest and friendly atmosphere. As a racing fan I loved every minute of it. A good performance is a good performance, and so is a good ride, regardless of the class of the race.

Grassroots-sport…. racing in its purest form – it can be as beautiful and exciting as the colourful Derby Meeting at Epsom Racecourse – which is sure to excite us this weekend!

What you certainly wouldn’t experience at Epsom, though: a race held in almost complete darkness. So it happened in the final race on the night. A false start didn’t help the matter, nor the emerging fog. So it was more listening to the enthusiastic track commentator than seeing it, but the four year old filly Ishasha scooted clear to win the finale – and earned me a few quid – my only winner on the night!

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Yes, Berlin-Hoppegarten left a lasting impression on me. I really loved it, despite the rain – and in all seriousness, it was allot of rain! Though the sun looked through the dark clouds towards the end, bathing the course in some wonderful golden light for at least a couple of minutes…. it was very special. So I can’t praise Hoppegarten highly enough. A real gem. If you’re ever in Berlin, don’t miss it!

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Complete Hoppegarten Photo Gallery

Click Images to view in full size
All Photos Credit: Florian Christoph

Global Racing

Talking Points Irish Guineas Weekend

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Gleneagles is “The Best Miler Ever” 

On the verge of the Irish 2000 Guineas Aiden O’Brien seemed to become overwhelmed by his emotions. He ennobled Gleneagles, hailing him as “the best miler we have ever had”. That is some achievement in its own right, especially given the amount of classy horses passing through his hands year in year out.

This statement came just minutes after Gleneagles completed the 2000 Guineas double. He had to fight hard for it and it was a much closer finish than at Newmarket, where absolutely everything went to plan. This time, Gleneagles, boxed in on the rails, had to show an awful lot of class to win. He did exactly that.

But does it make him the best ever? Well, who am I to object his handlers experienced opinion. He, who has seen it all! Though, one could get the feeling that Aiden uses the term “best ever” a bit too loosely these days. Anyway, Gleneagles is certainly a very good colt. A true miler. A world-class miler.

Pearl Secret Lands A Big One

Sprint races can sometimes be a bit like lotto: Draw a number or throw a pin and wherever it lands that’s the horse to win. Admittedly, now I’m cynical. Yet there is some truth in it! These big sprint races are so much down to day form, it doesn’t always honour the actual form book. Run the same race ten times and you’ll almost certainly get ten different results.

So happened in the Temple Stakes at Haydock on Saturday. Pearl Secret was a slightly surprising winner of the Group 2 sprint. Yes, he was runner-up in the very same race last year, but back then on bottomless ground and before Saturday he only managed to win at Listed- or Conditions Stakes level. Now he has “a big one” on his CV!

Pearl Secret was followed home by Jack Dexter, who hasn’t won since November 2013, and 40/1 shot Wind Fire. Favourite Hot Streak finished sixth, but in truth never landed a blow. So much about the Lotto theory…

Jim Bolger The Magician

Round Two
Round Two

The County Kilkenny handler had it spot on: he knew his main contender for the 1000 Guineas wasn’t a miler. So he employed two pace makers, to ensure there would be no dawdling around. The good, consistent pace helped Pleascach in a way to relax but also to offset her lack of tactical speed and instead have a race with emphasize on stamina. It worked to perfection.

Pleascach took up the lead from two furlongs out and stayed strongly to line, fending off all challengers, including the one of red hot favourite Found. The stiff uphill finish at the Curragh clearly suited her cause too.

The next Jim Bolger star is already lined up. His Round Two won the Listed Marble Hill Stakes in comprehensive style at the Curragh on Saturday, overcoming question marks about his speed over the minimum trip as well as a wider than ideal draw. The Teofilo son can only get better with time and distance. He seems the ideal favourite for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot next month.

Found Is No World-Beater

Hot Irish 1000 Guineas Favourite Found wasn’t able to land the odds in Sunday’s big race and instead had to settle for second. She didn’t get the clearest of runs as she was in a pocket over 2f out. The eventual winner, Bolger’s Pleascach, got first run and fend off Found’s charge gamely in the closing stages.

In the aftermath not everyone thought the best horse won – and I tend to agree to an extend – yes, Found was slightly unlucky, but that says she got out into the clear at the two furlong marker and had all the time in the world to make up the ground. She didn’t quicken rapidly enough, though, needed almost a full furlong to hit top gear. She clearly is no world-beater. At least not over the mile trip.

Compare her run to the one of Gleneagles in the 2000 Guineas – he had even less time to finish off his race once in the clear. But he did it in the manner of a true mile champion. He found a way to win, quickened when it mattered.

Nonetheless, Found’s Guineas performance is encouraging. She’ll be better over further. It may turn out that 1m 2f is her optimum, but the Oaks distance is very much possible and she now goes to Epsom as one of the favourites.

Endless Drama A Chaser In The Making

Endless Drama
Endless Drama

Just kidding. But you’ll laugh, there was more than one person suggesting the idea of giving him a spin over the big fences. And you can see why. He is a very big boy, indeed! I was slightly overwhelmed when this huge thing passed me in the parade ring for the first time.

I mean, there you have all these good looking three year olds walking around, very much looking like three year olds should look like. And then suddenly you have this monster of a horse walking towards you – is this still the Curragh or already Aintree? Guineas or Grand National Day?

In my 2000 Guineas preview I voiced slight disappointment to see Endless Drama running over 1m yet again. He didn’t look like staying thus far in two previous attempts over 6f+. On pedigree he seems a rather dubious stayer too. Add all the early speed he usually shows and you could easily come to the conclusion that he is actually a sprinter.

On Saturday, though, different tactics and better ground seemed to work wonders. He finished the Guineas well enough to suggest he can be a good miler. A close second behind Gleneagles is surly a very strong piece of form. Yet, I’d love to see him over six furlongs. I think he could be a force over that sort of trip.

Al Kazeem’s Second Spring

It’s never been straightforward for him. Al Kazeem lost almost his entire Classic season, but came back stronger than ever the following season, when he beat Camelot in the 2013 Tattersalls Gold Cup. That’s now exactly two years ago. He went on to land the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and Coral Eclipse the same year and was subsequently retired to stud as potentially hot property for all the lovely fillies in the world.

Didn’t work out in the breeding shed. He was soon back in training and after a couple of respectable efforts he finally muscled his way to another heroic Group 1 victory – Sunday at the Curragh, beating some serious opposition in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

He’s the kind of horse you won’t find enough of in flat racing. But these classy veterans are what the sport is craving for. Fans want to follow horses over more than one or two season. What is part and parcel in jump racing, is much more difficult at the top end of the game on the flat. So it’s great to see Al Kazeem, a seven year old now, as good and happy as ever!

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Photo Gallery – Irish 2000 Guineas

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Preview: German 2000 Guineas – First Classic Success for Paco Boy?

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Capella Sansevero 

Excellent line-up for the German 2000 Guineas. The home team looks to have a very strong hand and it could be tough for the foreign raiders to land a blow.

Andreas Wöhler trains two exciting colts in Karpino and Making Trouble. The former is trading as the red hot favourite after he won the Dr. Busch Memorial (G3) in excellent fashion on his seasonal debut, which was only his second career start. He drops slightly in trip today, which must not be an inconvenience, but he might be vulnerable against speedier sorts I feel, as he poses a very stamina laden pedigree.

Stable mate Making Trouble has the 1 mile trip written all over as a son of former world class miler Paco Boy. He won a Listed event over 1.500m on his seasonal reappearance in really good style and is expected to come on for the run. He should certainly improve for the step up to 1m and his trainer voiced satisfaction with Making Trouble’s progress prior to the big race.

Brisanto won the Group 3 Preis des Winterfavoriten in horrible conditions when last seen in October 2014. He’s a definite player if race fit, though the better ground is not sure to suite entirely. Agent Provocateur can’t be ruled out with fitness assured. He won a Conditions Race in France earlier this month and should get the additional furlong today but obviously has to raise his game in order to be competitive in this field.

Irish raider Capella Sansevero tries to redeem himself today after a lacklustre performance in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas. The runner-up of last years Coventry Stakes is a very speedy sort and that means he is not a sure stayer. On pedigree it’s certainly doubtful and his last run doesn’t instil much confidence either.

Maroc Botti has a proven track record in this race so it seems significant that he brings progressive Fanciful Angel over to Cologne. He won a Listed event at Lingfield last month and could have easily more to offer. More is needed here today, though, as this form hasn’t really worked out yet.

Verdict: If Karpino fails to fire today then victory can still go Andreas Wöhler’s way. His second string Making Trouble seems overpriced. He was impressive when winning a Listed event recently and should improve for the new trip. He can provide a first classic success for his sire Paco Boy and has clearly inherited a lot from his prominent daddy, most notably the sharp turn of foot.

Making Trouble @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Preview: Singapore International Cup

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Group 1 action in Singapore today – the International Cup shapes as a cracker with plenty of international contribution! It’s easy to understand why as the winner takes home almost $2 million in prize money.

Last years winner Dan Excel is here to defend his crown but has to overcome some serious opposition. Drawn wide, he’ll need to use a bit of energy to get across and be up with the pace. That was a bit easier last year from a much better draw. He hasn’t shown much since his International win, albeit mostly over shorter, and a recent third in the Champion Mile behind Able Friend indicates a return to form.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZYyxssrL3A

Veteran Military Attack isn’t getting any younger but is still mixing it with the best. Third in this race last year, he hasn’t been in the same form lately and looks a rather dubious favourite at 2/1 here. Judged on his former best, he’ll have every chance, but it’s questionable if he’s still up to the same level.

Japanese contender Meiner Frost won his prep in  last month and is clearly in form. It’s hard to know what to expect from him and how his past form compares to international standard, though. My perception is the may be found out for speed over this 1m 2f trip as he has plenty of form over further and wasn’t disgraced in last years Japanese Leger.

Freddy Head knows what it takes to win the big races. He brings over Free Port Lux. A multiple Group winner in France, He had a decent prep when 3½ lengths behind Al Kazeem last month and should come on for the run. A big, strong, scopy individual, he looks like one who will do better as a four year old.

His best forms came with cut in the ground so the likely quick conditions are a slight concern today. On the other hand his dam was a prolific fast ground performer, so it it may not be a problem after all. He has a good draw but is likely to be dropped in, so a bit of in-running luck may be required.

It’s hard to fancy anyone from the field. The local runners may not be good enough. Though French Free Port Lux makes plenty of appeal at 5/1. He could be the type to improve this year and his trainer wouldn’t make the trip if he wouldn’t believe in the chance of his mount.

Free Port Lux @ 5/1 SJ – 5pts Win

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Highland Reel’s a steel

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If you follow me on Twitter or have been reading my Horses To Follow article you’ll be familiar with my love for Ballydoyle inmate Highland Reel. We haven’t seen him racing this season yet, so it’s still unclear how he came over the winter and whether he has matured and improved from two to three.

But as a juvenile he was pure class. I loved the way this inexperienced colt won his maiden at Gowran Park. Unaware of what his job was, interested in anything but not the race, yet pulling clear with so much ease. Poetry in motion. I loved even more how he produced his phenomenal turn of foot in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Obviously he has yet to be really tested but that may change this Sunday in the Prix des Poulains.

Highland Reel missed the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, which was a real shame as I backed him ante-post. Of course Without having seen him this season yet it can’t be said with certainty, but I believe he would have been a real danger for Gleneagles.

Anyway, he’s now going to France to get his classic season under way. The Prix des Poulains is normally a rough race, where in-running luck is very much required. It’s not always the best horse that wins. However Highland Reel is a rather uncomplicated horse who wouldn’t mind being up with the pace. A good draw in stall seven should see him securing a perfect position and therefore he could be able to avoid any possible trouble. Class should tell after all.

With that in mind I’m happy enough to back him at 9/2 which looks big enough and I would expect this price to diminish the closer we get to the race.

Sunday, 10/05/2015: Prix des Poulains
Highland Reel @ 9/2 Racebets – 10pts win

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Flat Horses To Follow

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The start of the flat season is looming…… the ‘real’ start I mean! Yes, the Doncaster Lincoln is the traditional kick-off, but let’s be honest, the focus is still very much on the jumps – thanks to the all overshadowing Grand National. However you’ll see, time is flying.  A blink of an eye later and horses are already thundering down the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on Guineas weekend!

That is reason enough for me to write down my personal “Flat Horses To Follow List”! I have worked myself through a large list of horses in recent weeks – to be more specific: I’ve been actually assessing the more or less promising two year old colts and geldings of the 2014 season. Based on that, I’ve come up with a 12 To Follow list…..

I know, everyone is coming up with ten to follow these days – that’s why I have twelve horses on my list! … Well, no. To be honest, I just couldn’t endure the pain to cut down the list to ten.

Archangel Raphael – 2 Starts, Aiden O’Brien

This lightly races son of Montjeu was unlucky not to win on debut but made amends at the Galway Festival. He looked pretty green on both starts and was outpaced halfway through but was particularly impressive on his second outing when he had many negative factors to overcome but won in the manner of a talented individual. There’s bit lack of stamina on his dam side, but 1m 2f should be possible for him. Much further looks unlikely.

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Christophermarlowe – 2 Starts, John Gosden

Big, powerful, galloping sort with plenty of scope. Was still very much learning the game in both career starts, but looks to have some raw ability that could propel him into a top class performer. He handled Epsom well enough when winning a Conditions race on his second outing. Looks sure to get 1m 2f, could potentially get the Derby trip as well.

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Chemical Charge – 2 Starts, Ralf Beckett

Made a belated debut in October. Was visually impressive and followed up with minor win on the All-Weather weeks later. Showed a nice  turn of foot on Lingfield’s polytrack. He has a lovely middle-distance pedigree which should ensure he gets better with age and distance.

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Consort – 1 Start, Sir Michael Stoute

Impressive runaway winner of a hot Newmarket maiden last autumn. Produced strong turn of foot from the front but should be suited by stiffer test. Step up in trip should suit. He’s very likely to enjoy a mile and may even develop with time into a top class runner over a bit further. Out off the Guineas though as trainer said he need a bit more time.

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Endless Drama – 1 Start, Ger Lyons

Astonishing debut run late in the season when producing serious change of gear. Very well bred out of a Listed winning mare. Looks to have loads of speed and not sure if he would get a mile, but he has potential to do loads of damage over sprint trips if he fails to show enough stamina for further.

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Fannaan – 2 Starts, John Gosden

Utterly impressive in two career outings. Beat 104 rated individual under hands and heels in soft conditions at Newmarket over 7f on second start. Bred to be top class miler who should be even more suited by quick underfoot conditions. Exciting prospect.

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Full Mast – 3 Starts, Head-Maarek

Already a multiple Group winner in France over seven furlongs  in his short career, including the Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere (actual winner Gleneagles demoted). Lovely bred and sure to improve with age and distance. Exciting middle-distance prospect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhC0UXa681c

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Golden Horn – 1 Start, John Gosden

Was slowly away and trailing on debut but produced great run to win in the end. Beat smart runner-up (was 2nd on debut behind subsequent Racingpost Trophy runner-up). He is a half-brother to a 10f Listed winner and is bound to excel over middle-distance trips this season once stepping up in trip.

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Giovanni Canaletto – 2 Starts, Aiden O’Brien

A full-brother to Ruler Of The World, he is obviously very well bred. He has been quite green in his two career starts but finished strongly on debut behind a potentially smart winner. He produced a blistering turn of foot on his 2nd start, despite an awkward head carriage. He will improve with experience and distance.

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Mohaayed – 2 Starts, Kevin Prendergast

Very green on both starts. Completely unaware of what his job is supposed to be on debut. Very impressive winner on second start, beating smart Ballydoyle horse in third. Was looking- and wandering around in closing stages but showed some class. Future seems to be over middle-distance on pedigree.

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Highland Reel – 2 Starts, Aiden O’Brien

Very Green and raw and first two starts. Yet run out impressive 12l winner stepping up to one mile on second outing. Third of that race beat exciting prospect JFK subsequently. He went on to win Group 2 over seven furlongs at Goodwood on his last start in 2014. In a rather slowly run race he produced a blistering turn of foot. He should relish a stiffer test over further on pedigree. To my eyes he looks the real deal if he trains on. Serious Guineas prospect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M07mwbLk4vc

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Zawraq – 1 Start, Dermot Weld

Gutsy debut winner against potentially smart Sir Isaac Newton. Showed great attitude to fight back when under pressure. Trainer is very upbeat and rates him as best 3yo in the yard. More to come once stepping up in trip. He should get up to 1m 2f but looks to have enough speed for a crack at the Guineas as well.

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It would have been easy to put a list together with all the super sexy Aiden O’Brien prospects. And boy, he has aplenty on his hands! Equally John Gosden, who seems to have some very strong individuals at his disposal. Now, three horses each have made it into my list nonetheless. But I tried to provide a bit of variety and left out the obvious ones like John F Kennedy or Sir Isaac Newton & Gleneagles.

I suppose, if you nail me down to the ONE horse to follow for 2015 – It would be undoubtedly Highland Reel. I was so impressed with his maiden win, where he was more interested in anything else around him, than the actual job he had to do, yet he pulled clear by 12 lengths…. easily….. effortless.

This speaks volumes. He is a hugely talented individual. Mind you, the third of the mentioned maiden race won subsequently a maiden where he beat none less than John F Kennedy. Okay, it’s fair to say JFK needed the run and was green and of course will be better over further. Yet, it is still telling that such an exciting Ballydoyle prospect was a good deal beaten by a horse that was simply demolished by Highland Reel weeks before. Keep the winning margin always in mind: 12l+!

The son of Galileo stepped up in class almost as effortless weeks later at Glorious Goodwood. He dropped down to seven furlongs, right into a race where the pace wasn’t really on, he pulled hard early on, yet when asked for everything, he produced a blistering turn of foot and the race was over.

Highland Reel is the real deal! Yes, there are extremely positive vibes about Gleneagles, who is a short favourite for the 2.000 Guineas. But no doubt, the value lies with his stable mate. Aiden O’Brien confirmed already that HR will go down the Guineas route. And that make sense. From there he may can step up in trip. Coral Eclipse as the most likeliest next target?

But step by step. He’s 12/1 for the Guineas at the moment, and if he starts on the day indeed, he’ll have a much better chance to win. So I backed him ante-post and nominate him as my selection for the race. Highland Reel will win the Guineas.

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The Flat is back!

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Newbury

The flat is back! Finally! Yes, I’m very happy about this. I love flat racing. Though, understandably, there will be also plenty of sad faces today, as this means the jump season is pretty much over. Even though the biggest of them all, the Grand National is still to come!

But personally I really happy to have the flat back, as it means spring is in the air and top class racing is approaching thick and fast! The UK flat season kicks-off with the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster, while we have the Dubai World Cup night at Meydan today. It ain’t much better. I don’t want to bore you to death, dear readers, so i hope you enjoy this quick and snappy betting preview of all the big races….

2.35 Doncaster: Cammidge Trophy (Listed)

Wide open renewal. The ground is drying out and that may catch out a couple of these, particularly last years winner Dinkum Diamond. On the other hand the ground may not be quite quick enough for Naadirr, who I actually like allot, but under a penalty could find this too tough. Astaire will find this easier than the top races he contested in last season. He is a worthy favourite, but not more than a fair price.

As the value here, I fancy the filly Perfect Blessings to go well. Still rather lightly raced, she looked promising in spring last year and may do better now as a four year old than her last two results may suggest. If she is fit today, she could outrun her price with conditions to suit. 1/4 odds EW with Coral looks tasty here.

Perfect Blessings @ 33/1 Coral – 2.5pts EW

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3.45 Doncaster: Lincoln Handicap (Class 2)

The feature race on the opening day of the English flat season – the Lincoln is naturally a race with a big field and plenty of runners with realistic chances. Two lightly raced horses heading the market this year, tough current second favourite GM Hopkins makes more appeal than 13/2 favourite Mange All. If you ignore those two slightly below forms when seen last in the 2014 season – where the soft ground may not have been quite suitable – then Gm Hopkins is a rapidly improving gelding with plenty of scope. Still generally lightly raced, he won a big Newmarket Handicap last summer in the manner of a really good horse.

Strong pace is key to him, but that should be ensured today, and the drying ground is a big bonus. It’s more than fair to assume that he has much more to offer from a mark off 99. If he progresses with age as one would hope and actually expect, then 7/1 could be a bit too big a price.

Another runner I fancy, though a much bigger price, is Baraweez. A very impressive winner of a Premier Handicap on Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown, he was progressive last season as well and could have still more to give. He wwas also a good winner at the Galway Festival, both those big wins came over 7f, but he’s equally good over further, as a strong pace is simply key to him. Interesting that Chris Hayes travelled over to ride two mounts for Brian Ellison on the card, but surly this is the one he’s over for. No doubt, Baraweez is overpriced in my mind at 22/1.

Gm Hopkings @ 7/1 Bet365 – 5pts win
Baraweez @ 22/1 Coral – 5pts win

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2.30 Meydan: Al Quoz Sprint (Group 1)

I might be slightly biased here because I really love South African racing and therefore have all fingers crossed for big runs of South African horses at Meydan today. Although, even from a neutral perspective, one has to say that 14/1 for Via Africa must rate as way too big a price. The filly is the best sprinter in her native country, a multiple Grade 1 winner with loads of pace. She impressed me on her Meydan debut when she showed excellent gate speed and stuck well to the task in the closing stages.

She was entitled to fade away, given the gruelling preparation she had to endure, with all the quarantine measurements taken in regards of South African horses, but she finished well enough. Via Africa should come on allot for this, only the bounce factor is a slight worry. But conditions in her favour, I would expect a big run.

Via Africa @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts win

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3.40 Meydan: Dubai Turf (Group 1)

Multiple Group winner Sollow is favourite to land this, though this is his first ever crack at the highest level. In contrast proven Group 1 horse The Grey Gatsby makes more appeal on pure form. He lowered the colours of Australia last year and should be a major contender here. Slight concern is the drop in trip, as he looked to need every inch at Leopardstown.

Euro Charline looks the value against the two well fancied favourites. This filly could easily  have still more to offer. She was super progressive last year as she performed very well during spring in top Group races in the UK and won a 1m Listed contest before she travelled over to the US to land a strong renewal of the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes in very taking style. She proved that day what a gutsy, genuine and talented filly she is. She missed the Breeders Cup through injury, but vibes are very positive in recent days about her wellbeing and a big run can be expected.

Euro Charline @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5pts win

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4.15 Meydan: Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1)

Probably the deepest race on the excellent World Cup card – you could make a case for almost every runner. The Japanese have a very strong hand in this once again. Harp Star was unlucky in the Arc last year, and wasn’t disgraced in two subsequent races back home in very hot company. With Ryan Moore in the saddle, she has every chance. Arc runner-up Flinsthire will relish the conditions, and must rate a big danger. His Hong Kong Vase triumph is a brilliant piece of form, after hitting the crossbar on so many occasions before. However he really needs to have everything falling right into place, as otherwise he will surly run well but without crossing the line first once again.

Main Sequence has been utterly impressive since moving to the US. He deserves plenty of respect. But this rapid improvement could easily be down to medication, and I’m not sure if he can run to the same sort of form outside the US. The one horse I feel is the value here, is the French filly Dolniya. She was very progressive last season, ended the year with a creditable 5th place in the Arc and has scope for further improvement. She beat Flintshire in a prep on the All-Weather over shorter last month and in my mind she doesn’t get the credit she deserves here.

Dolniya @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts win

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Dn’t miss the big race preview of the $10 million Dubai World Cup: Read here! 
Global Racing

Weekend Round-up

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Cheltenham is over, and one could feel a bit empty, but the racing world never sleeps! So let’s have a quick round-up of what happened this last weekend.

American Pharoah has been shaking up the Kentucky Derby ante-post market. An impressive success in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes saw him jumping right at the top of the market. Trained by Bob Baffert – who also has the second favourite Dortmund in his barn – American Pharoah was last seasons champion two year old in the US, though injuries towards the end of the season put his Derby credentials on hold. He’s back no – see for yourself how impressive he was on Saturday:

Warren’s Veneda has been really progressive over the last couple of weeks, and her rise to the top of the mares division didn’t stop this weekend when she landed the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes in great fashion. She tried the 1 1/8 mile trip for the first time, but clearly saw it out.

The Hangman was once a top class juvenile, but injuries prevented him from fulfilling his potential. Nursed back to form, he has now won two on the bounce after he took the Grade 3 Kings Cup at Greyville on Sunday – which is the place of his biggest triumph -here’s were he won the Grade 1 Premiers Champion Stakes as a juvenile back in 2012. Ridden to perfection stalking a slow pace on Sunday, he held on gamely to fend off the challenge by runner-up Candy Moon. The second may be the one to take out of this as he came from well off the pace, and has been a bit unlucky lately. A big win is potentially around the corner.

Tryster may well be one of the best horses we have ever seen on the UK All-Weather. Trained by Charlie Appleby, he has been progressive throughout the whole winter and took his form to new heights when getting up easily in the Winter  Derby at Lingfield.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74eV5oblffM

Goonyella delivered for the Irish in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter! Trying the 4 mile + trip for the first time, he saw it out like a champ and could be en-route to the big National at Aintree in month time now, where he’d be well in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtWE0oFmhtE

If you haven’t seen it already – check out my Cheltenham Festival Review as well as the great Photo Gallery from my trip to Coolmore Stud.