The pace scenario could play into the hands of possibly quite well-handicapped top-weight Strong Johnson. He drops ever so slightly in class, after a couple of strong runs lately.
He can track the pace but is also happy enough in front on his own – with not too much other pace to worry about here in this race today, he could be in an ideal position when it matters most.
His most recent third place effort at Southwell was a big run. That piece of form looks already quite strong the way it starts to work out. He could be the next nto winner.
That day he was soon chasing the leader, having a perfect #2 draw, but also he was doing a lot in the first half of the race, as did the other more prominent races.
Nonetheless, he travelled quite well into the home straight and showed and excellent attitude in the closing stages as he kept going strongly in an attempt to fend of multiple challengers
He achieved a 70 speed rating there, which matched his current mark. He also showed a handful of decent performances this season without getting his head in front, though.
The handicapper has been kind, left him on 70, and given he won off a good deal higher twelve months ago over this course and distance, he must be a prime chance today.
10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 9/2
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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 6f
Princess Shabnam could be the lone speed here, if she can overcome the #7 draw. That’ll be a huge advantage to this speedy, who’s showing excellent form lately.
A fortnight ago over this course and distance she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually.
This was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.
Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.
She’s down to a mark of 76 now, and ideally would drop in class, but today looks a weak 0-78 Handicap. With a possible pace advantage, she must go close.
Oso Rapido looks poised for a big run here as he returns to the course and distance he caught my eye three weeks ago in no uncertain manner.
The 7-year-old gelding drops ever so slightly in grade as well, and should find this an ideal trip on the sand for him, given the pace scenario could also help to make it a gruelling test today.
Not as prolific on the All-Weather, as on turf, Oso Rapido had no too many opportunities to run 6f on the AW, though:
Found out for class in class 3 a few years ago, but he managed a win and the most recent excellent 3rd place in his four starts over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather.
Three weeks ago at this course and distance, he overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. He kept going for 3rd place – a massive performance in a decent field.
In fact, the three horses in chasing pack that followed Oso Rapido have won in the meantime. Oso Rapido himself was a bit disappointing at Redcar last week, but he was beaten by the way the race developed in another pretty hot class 5 Handicap for this time of the year.
Today is much easier, although the pace could be hot. The positive thing is that Oso Rapido doesn’t have to lead, he can follow who ever wants to make it. In fact, a good pace will be to his benefit, given he can stretch out to 7 furlongs as well.
Punk Poet could have found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways. He returns to the mile trip, his preferred course and distance, will enjoy a decent draw and showed plenty of encouraging signs three weeks ago at this venue.
That day over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome a wide #12 draw but quickly managed to grab the lead moving up on the outside in the first furlong, just before hitting the bend.
Largely leading uncontested – he also did a lot to keep it that way – Punk Poet travelled best into the home straight, kept going strongly under pressure, before getting tired in the final furlong to finish a gallant 3rd place.
This was a huge run, following on from two decent prior runs, as he starts to take advantage of an easing mark. He’s dangerous off 73 over CD, 5lb lower than his last win twelve months.
He doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating and a piece of form that works out well, given the 7th and 9th of that race performed strongly in the meantime.
Punk Poet could be hard to beat today, as he should be able to slot in right behind the likes of No Knee Ever and Rampage, should they elect to want to lead, or he can simply to his own thing from the front. The #5 draw allows for multiple options, and all should suit.
Winter is coming… With that in mind I’m starting a fresh list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.
All-Weather Eyecatchers is going to be a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.
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Ancient Times 10/10/24 – 8.30 Southwell:
Right up with the fast pace, being just about the quickest through the early part of the race. Fought gamely but eventually fell away in the final furlong in a hot race.
One who caught the eye a number of times in the past. Down to a career-lowest mark, with options to improve on the AW. First run since a small break and could be dangerous in 0-70 class.
Oso Rapido 10/10/24 – 6.00 Southwell:
Overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. For a long time in the race, a massive performance in a decent field.
Not as prolific on the sand as on turf, but didn’t have too many chances to show his best over his preferred 6f on AW. Clearly in decent form, ran some fine races this season, and will benefit from a drop in grade.
Dimsons 10/10/24 – 7.15 Chelmsford:
Very keen from the #8 draw, moved forward, pulling hard in the lead. Got badly tired in the closing stages but was in the mix for a while in a strong race. Did better than bare form suggest here on handicap debut.
Seemed to have improved since being gelded. A drop in grade could help, maybe some headgear, given he can be quite free. Still lightly raced, may also enjoy a drop in trip. There should be a bit of improvement in him once the penny drops.
Punk Poet 11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:
Moved quickly forward from a wide draw to grab the lead, uncontested, but also did a lot to keep it that way. Travelled best into the home straight, before getting tired in the final furlong.
Huge run, following on from to decent prior runs, staring to take advantage of an ease in the mark. Dangerous off 73, if the handicapper is kind, next time over 7f or perhaps slightly better over a mile at Dundalk from a better draw.
Won last November off 78 over a mile here, and doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating.
Little Empire 11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:
Runner-up in the Punk Poet race – had to overcome the widest draw. Travelled wide through the first furlong, before making rapid progress to settle just behind the leader. Gutsy in the closing staged to grab second eventually.
Could have still a bit more to offer on this surface off this sort of mark given he was largely progressive all season. Had valid excuses (ground and reared in stalls) in his last two runs.
Achieved a career-best speed rating here and hopefully the handicapper won’t react too harshly, then he’s a proper chance over 7f with a better draw.
Tamrat 11/10/24 – 7.00 Dundalk:
Quickest through the first two furlongs in a fast race. Never let the tempo ease too much and was going pretty well from the front, where not much else got involved. Eventually just beaten by a seriously well handicapped winner.
Clearly improved from the application of blinkers, as evident last time already. The drop in trip helped also here. Ran a career-best speed rating, in line with his current rating, that suggests now that the trip has been found he could have a good deal more to offer off this current rating.
Princess Shabnam 12/10/24 – 7.20 Chelmsford:
Set way too hot early fractions and no surprise to see her fade away eventually. Strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.
The Kempton 2nd in September is seriously strong form, especially the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also.
Strong Johnson 17/10/24 – 6.30 Southwell:
Soon chased the leader having a perfect #2 draw but also did a lot in the first half of the race. Travelled quite well into the home straight and showed excellent attitude in the closing stages to keep going despite multiple challengers to hold on for 3rd place.
Appears quite well handicapped now, achieved a 70 speed rating here, matching his current mark. Showed a handful of decent performances this season without winning, but now a return to the sand should help if the handicapper is kind.
At his best over 5f but stays the additional furlong. Won last November over the minimum trip at Newcastle.
Bell Shot 17/10/24 – 6.45 Chelmsford:
Quickly into the lead, set seriously hot fractions, helped by the eventual winner who pushed it further. Fell apart in the second half but no shame behind the impressive winner.
Ran to some serious ratings this season and should be able to translate this to the sand as well now. Will benefit from a drop in class and eased mark soon. Would also be intriguing if dropped in trip.
Hedge Fund 17/10/24 – 7.45 Chelmsford:
Moved forward from wide draw to grab the lead. Did way too much early on yet travelled very strongly into the home straight, still ahead at the final furlong marker.
Surely ready to win soon, down to a career-lowest mark, especially in a slightly easier race (0-80). Possesses enough pace to win over minimum trip as well.
Pop Dancer 17/10/24 – 8.15 Chelmsford:
Rapidly moved forward to win the race for the lead in the first furlong, doing too much there and then. Ran an honest race to the lead for 3rd eventually.
Slowly drops in the mark, coinciding with two improving performances lately. Not the force of old but in this grade always dangerous from the front when he can dominate.
Guiteau 19/10/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:
Off to a decent start from #5 to chase a hot pace. Midway followed the leader closely with small gap to the main field. Headed leader 2f out, but soon beaten. Ran honest race to the line.
Could become intriguing soon with additional help from handicapper and possible drop in class on the cards. Ran 3x 66 speed ratings on turf this year, and ran to a fair 59 speed rating here as well, a career-best on sand.
Salamanca Lad 19/10/24 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:
Brave performance from the front and only ran down deep in the final furlong, with the winner coming from well off the pace.
Two huge runs prior as well. The Sandown form worked out well in the meantime, and he ran a career-best speed rating at Southwell when beaten in the dying strides.
Uncomplicated front-runner, starts well, and could still be a couple of pounds ahead in the right race. Probably doesn’t truly stay 10f, although always a chance if no pace pressure.
The QEII looks a tasty renewal: Big Rock romped home when let loose on the lead last year. He’s not here to defend his crown – however, a field of 13 go to post where pace, ground and freshness could be the deciding factors.
#1 Charyn: four wins from six races this season, including the Queen Anne. Greatly improved as a 4-year-old and ground versatile. He’s been the star miler this year.
Suspicion is he may be seen to best effect on a better surface, though. His two biggest performances on the clock came in June on a faster surface.
It’s been a long season and he had a tough race at Longchamp a fortnight ago. Still a massive run back then to finish runner-up, eventually, where he had too much to do.
Remains the one do beat, but a short price in this race, given there’s opposition to beat with a good record on soft ground.
#2 Checkandchallenge: Improved for a gelding operation. Ran credible in this race the last two years. Still shouldn’t be good enough.
#3 Facteur Cheval: Runner-up in this twelve months ago. Followed-up with winning the Dubai Turf. Handles soft ground seriously well and comes here fresher than some of his other key rivals.
A return to a softer surface and possible a good pace to lead him into the race could see him improve from his third at Goodwood, when last seen; arguably a strong piece of form, on a much faster surface.
He ran a massive race last year here, waiting too long for his effort, with the winner long gone, but finished much the best. Serious chance today.
#4 Lord Massus: Only a listed winner do date, although placed in a couple of Group 2’s. Unlikely to be good enough to feature.
#5 Poker Face: Likely one of the pace horses. Runner-up on three occasions in Group 2 company this year. Unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead.
#6 Prague: Lightly raced and supplemented after recent impressive Group 2 victory at Newmarket. Impressive mid-race move and kept going when others faltered.
Followed-up from an unlucky second at Haydock Improving and looks open to tons of progress. Certainly deserves his chance on this level.
He enjoys this type of ground as well and should benefit from a strong pace. A possible negative is the draw: far away on the outside away from the likely pace, unless Lord Massus moves forward as well and he can follow.
#7 Quddwah: Another low-mileage colt. Won the Group 2 Summer Mile here this season and also won over the straight mile last season. Intriguing; however, a career-best 82 speed rating would need him to see improve quite dramatically.
#8 Dancing Gemini: Showed so much promise earlier in his career. Unfortunate not to win the French Guineas. Disappointed ever since, and a long way beaten when last season, despite a significant drop in class.
#9 Henry Longfellow: Largely consistent, having ran to a good standard this season, apart from a disaster run in the French Guineas. Nonetheless, arguably a major disappointment that he wasn’t able to fulfil the promise he showed as a juvenile.
Probably up with the pace, and that could be a positive. But the ground is against him and he may not get home over a mile in soft conditions.
#10 Ice Max: Enjoys soft ground and was a fine winner of the Celebration Mile in August. Throw his race away when last seen and will enjoy the likely good pace. Hard to envision him good enough to win.
#11 Metropolitan: French 2000 Guineas winner. Good the ideal run that day and made most of it, holding on in a tight finish, eventually. Somewhat unfortunate not to finish a bit closer the next two times against top-class opposition, without being disgraced as 2nd and 3rd.
Unlikely he would have beaten Rosallion at Ascot, but he was a clear run denied at a crucial stage and that cost him dearly. Also not ideally placed having to delay his effort, held up behind the pace, last time at Deauville. Finished well, although couldn’t match Charyn’s turn of foot once in the clear.
The ground should make a significant difference to his chances. It’ll stunt the finishing speed of his rivals, while he can quicken well enough on a soft surface. He should be ridden closer to the pace, and is ideally placed to follow Henry Longfellow and Poker Pace.
He’s been drifting in the betting all morning, to my surprise. Not sure why, and that’s a worry, because it doesn’t make sense to me. Conditions should be ideal for him and he comes here relatively fresh.
#12 Sirona: A listed winner on heavy ground when last seen. Shouldn’t stand a chance to feature.
#13 Tamfana: Progressive filly who won her first Group 1 two weeks ago landing the Sun Chariot in excellent style. The ground won’t be a worry and she looks well drawn in and around the likely pace.
She had a long enough season, though, and is a short enough price, given her overall win record isn’t all that impressive.
Summary: a wide open renewal. Charyn sets a high standard but could be vulnerable in these conditions at the end of a long season. He’s a short price
Metropolitan appeals at a huge price, while has Facteur Cheval has the ability to go one better than twelve months ago, with conditions set to be ideal. Prague looks potentially a special colt.
Auguste Rodin sets a very high standard in the King George – if on a going day. He’s the right favourite, and hard to knock on his 2024 form.
Somewhat of an enigma last year, this season he improved nicely from his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, to land the Group 1 POW at this venue last month in fine style.
Two performances achieving a 100+ speed rating back-to-back as well – clearly on decent ground Auguste Rodin is a superstar. With the pace and race likely to be run in his favour, with his stablemates, including high-class Luxembourg likely to to move forward, he should be in an ideal position when the fields turns for home.
One could argue 6/4 is a pretty fair price, given nearly everything will be in his favour today. It’s not my type of price, but I think you could back far worse shots at these short prices.
Saying that, there’s some decent opposition to beat, albeit, they all have their work cut out, given none of them enjoys the luxury of two pacemakers helping their cause.
Rebel’s Romance is the closest rival in the betting. I don’t he’s good enough to beat Auguste Rodin, though. His best form comes away from home, and he never achieved a Group 1 speed rating on turf so far.
That’s perhaps controversial to say, given he won two Group 1 races this year already. And those were competitive ones at Meydan and Hong Kong. At 7/2 I see zero value in back him, nonetheless.
The filly Bluestocking looks progressive as she matures. Her Pretty Polly win last month was a superb piece of form. Can she translate this type of performance to fast ground and 12 furlongs? If so, she’d be a serious danger.
Middle Earth, so far in her career, hasn’t shown that she’s Group 1 class. Duabi Honour has, and he could outran a big price for a place. Although, his very best form comes over 10 furlongs.
To call Luxembourg, a most recent Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner, a pace maker is probably harsh. He’ll run on merit, no doubt, and is a fair each-way shout at current prices. I do believe he’s best over 10 furlongs, on the other hand, and may be outstayed for win purposes.
There no question that the only 3-year-old colt in the race, Sunway, is tremendously overpriced. 17/1+ on the exchanges is obviously a bonkers price.
Saying that, to start with a negative: his draw an likely position in the race are massive negatives. He’ll likely be held up and will have plenty to do once the field turns for home. His challenge may come too late.
Nonetheless, at this price I can’t leave him unbacked. There’s too much juice in the these odds, for various reasons.
For one: His 108 speed rating achieved in the Irish Derby is the best on offer in this field this season. I believe the Curragh Classic was a strong renewal, and the form will stand the test of time.
Further to that, he achieved that brilliant runner-up performance in less than ideal circumstances. Coming from off the pace, he had a lot to do, didn’t get the best run through, and still finished the fastest over the last three furlongs, thanks to a rapid final furlong.
That run demonstrates his class but also his possibly vulnerability, certainly over this trip, given the way he’s ridden over 12 furlongs. From his #7 draw today most likely he’ll be ridden in similar fashion.
The hope is that they go hard up front and that James Doyle can make progress from halfway out to swing around the bend for a clear run not further back than midfield to unleash a turn of foot, that seems present, especially on better ground, to give Sunway a fair chance to win.
10pts win – Sunway @ 17/1
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7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
This looks a superb chance for Sir Oliver to score as he drops down in class again, having lost another 2lb of his mark and gets the added bonus of solid 3lb claiming Christian Howarth in the saddle.
Sir Oliver has ran well enough lately, having finished a gallant 3rd over this course and distance in June, when not ideally placed, in a hot 0-75 Handicap off 3lb higher than today.
He was too keen the next two times back over 7 furlongs, although, also harshly judged in better class, especially most recently at Ascot in a strong class 4 contest.
Down to class 5, where he enjoys a 9-3-4 record and 3-1-2 ground over 6 furlongs on on decent to fast ground, he looks well handicapped in this race today. Albeit competitive in nature, and the #1 draw not quite ideal, the pace scenario shapes well enough for him to cross over quickly to the far rail.
So with fast ground, trip and track to suit, in an easier race, and having shown form lately, Sir Oliver could be hard to beat today.
I’ve backed Kindest Nation before and am prepared to give her a final chance, today in a pretty poor race, with ground, trip and pace scenario likely to suit this filly.
I think she’s better than her official 70 rating in these conditions. I don’t think she appreciates any firm in the going, and that was the case the last two times.
As poor as the most recent Newmarket run looked, ground aside, from the #1 draw she was pretty early beaten, racing somewhat isolated toward the far rail early on, and first and second racing on the other side.
She ran much better the three times prior: first at Haydock, travelling well for quite a long time, but stuck behind the leaders for a run, before fading over the mile.
Her Sandown front-running performance in a hot Class 4 Handicap suggested she’s capable of winning in a slightly easier race off her then mark, so did that excellent runner-up performance at Beverley, where she followed-up on an eyecatching Southwell victory.
Kindest Nation remains lightly raced, this is only her 7th career start, fourth time in a Handicap, and probably only the second time over the ideal trip and ground.
Headgear on should help her to stay sharp and be fast out of the gate to get to an advantageous prominent racing position, given this course and distance but also the possible pace scenario. A solid 3lb claimer on board seems the “cherry on the cake”.
10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 15/2
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7.10 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
If Covert Mission can regain some form second up off a small break he’ll be possibly hard to beat off a seriously dangerous mark over an ideal course and distance with a favourable pace scenario.
Granted, his last two runs have been poor showings. However, he missed the break at Bath and was stuck behind horses in the home straight, while he did way too much too soon from his #7 draw at Lingfield last time out.
Both races were deep and worked out well in the meantime. I feel those runs weren’t quite as bad as the bare form suggests. Especially as he dropped to a mark of 61 now, 4lb below his last winning mark overall, and 9lb below his last winning mark on sand.
The pace scenario looks probably favourable for him, especially from a low draw with not too many other aggressive possible leaders in the race.
Cheek-pieces are back on – he raced once with them a few years ago and finished a strong runner-up. So that’s another positive in my book.
This is a weak 0-65 Handicap for this time of the year on the All-Weather and Covert Mission looks seriously overpriced with the various bigger odds up for grabs on the exchanges.
It was good to back a winner yesterday. In fact it was a nice & comfortable win for God Of Fire at Beverley. He was on the pace, in the right position throughout, and simply didn’t stop.
The same fortune didn’t apply to my Durban July selection Future Swing. He clearly wasn’t ready when the gates opened, not standing straight, leaning awkward to the side in the stall and it was a shame the starter let it go. He had no chance.
Whether he would have been good enough on the day with a fair start will be an unknown forever. Credit where it’s due, though: it was a sensational ride by J P v’d Merwe on the winner Oriental Charm, in any case.
Double figure draw? No bother. Once in front, he rode them to sleep, set a perfect tempo for his mount, who wasn’t certain to stay the July trip. But he has speed and travelles and just kicked on hitting the home straight with plenty in hand, and rivals from behind had too much to do as Oriental Charm was able to sustain his effort all the way.
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2.45 Hamburg: Group 1 – German Derby, 1m 4f
An open enough contest that may evolve around the way the pace develops with some of the better fancied runners having to overcome double-figure draws.
Likely front-runner Geminiano is a non-runner now, hence this may not turn out into all-out stamina test. It should prove vital to have a good early position, not too far off the pace, which means the likes of Narrativo and Wintertraum, currently the top two in the betting, have to be used up a little more than ideal, possibly, from their 10 and 11 gates early on.
Narrativo heads the market at the time of writing. A superb winner of Union-Rennen, a traditional leading Derby trial, he produced a lovely change of gear from off the pace.
He was a solid 3rd in the strong renewal of the Prix Hocquart behind Calandagan, so that’s proper form and a colt nicely improving with each run.
Wintertraum gets the assistance of Oisin Murphy and was an equally highly impress winner of a Derby Trial at Düsseldorf. He didn’t get a clear run until 300m out and sprinted away in superb style.
I don’t like the double-figure draws both leading betting chances have, and think they’re no more than fair prices, although, they are obvious chances to run well.
I’m quite interested in Wintertraum’s stable mate Augustus, though. He’s a tough sort, improving, and looks a stayer in the making who’ll appreciate the softish ground and the new trip.
He impressed when winning the Derby Trial at Baden-Baden last month as he was doing much the best of those up or chasing the hot pace. He came under pressure, seemingly outpaced over three furlongs from home, also looking still a bit green in the closing stages, but showed tremendous attitude to outstay smart Wilko.
Augustus should be ridden positive from the #1 gate and has the pedigree to improve for the step up to the Derby distance. He’s progressing nicely, as he followed on from a solid seasonal reappearance at Munich with the strong Trial win.
The second horse I’m giving a huge chance, who’s going to be my main bet, is already a Derby winner: Borna. He won the Derby Italiano in brilliant style back in May.
He overcame a wide draw and travelled wider than ideal for the majority of the race, nonetheless he made nice progress on the outside and travelled strongly on the bridle hitting the home straight. Two furlongs out he was all alone up there, and seemed to get a bit lonely, wandering and looking around. Ultimately he won with authority.
That looks strong form. The second, Royal Supremacy finished a fine 3rd at Royal Ascot in the King Edward subsequently. Borna looks a progressive sort, who should only get better with age and experience.
He was beaten by Wintertraum last season, though that was over a mile. He’ll have to prove that he can stretch out over the Derby trip, an additional furlong compared to Capannelle, but then the dam was placed over 1m 7f, so there’s a decent chance.
I like the fact from the #4 gate he’ll get it easy early on to find a decent position not too far off the pace, and given he’s a strong traveller he should be suited by the Hamburg track.
This weekend is always one of my favourite racing weekends of the year – the Durban July, Eclipse Stakes and the German Derby. As a racing fan it’s glorious.
The pick of the lot for me personally is the July. My favourite flat race in the entire international racing calendar. Such an intriguing puzzle to solve, being the Grade 1 Handicap it is, bringing the Classic generation and the best of the older horses together.
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3.35 Sandown: Group 1 – Eclipse Stakes, 1m 2f
All the excuses made for City Of Troy’s poor showing in the Guineas seemed spot on as the hype turned real when the son of Justify demolished the Derby field at Epsom.
It was one of the most impressive Derby performances I’ve seen, undoubtably. He had to overcome a less than ideal #1 draw and had to come further back than you would have wanted. He still managed to win – not just win, he sprinted home in the closing stages, compared to all his rivals.
Stamina clearly came to the fore as he outstayed all his main rivals thanks to a strong, sustained effort from four furlongs out. He was a different horse to the one seen at Newmarket, where he never seemed happy at all.
In this years renewal of the Eclipse City Of Troy is the outstanding favourite, with his main rival in the market having finished 8+ lengths behind him at Epsom.
Saying that, Sandown over 10 furlongs poses a completely different test to the Derby run at quirky Epsom. No question, City Of Troy likely has all the tools to succeed here as well. But there is that nagging doubt in my mind, given what we saw at Newmarket.
The fast early pace seemed to take him off his feet that day, more than anything. Whereas at Epsom, it wasn’t an overly taxing gallop, and he had plenty of time to settle and eventually relax.
Given his stable mate Hans Andersen will likely move forward and then tries to set the ideal tempo, it could go all just perfectly to plan… unless the likes of Ghostwriter or perhaps See The Fire spoil the party.
They could press for the lead as well. Both can be quite keen certainly Ghostwriter enjoys going forward forward, while See The Fire, keen over a mile, may want to get on with things over this new trip. Surely both wouldn’t want a sedate pace, and leave it up to Aiden O’Brien’s pace maker to decide their fate.
If there’s a a bit of a pace battle early on, and as a result over this shorter trip City Of Troy may not have the luxury of relaxing early on, I can see him being vulnerable. But only then. No doubt, the rain has helped and enhanced his overall chances.
The aforementioned Ghostwriter – fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby is an intriguing runner. He’s been running consistently to a high level and remains unexposed over this trip. The rain is a question mark, although he did well on heavy in the French Derby.
The 4-year-old Al Riffa is a frustrating sort, though with the rain coming, may enjoy this specific test over this course and distance and remains a relatively lightly raced colt with possible upside.
They all will have to improve significantly to get anywhere near to City Of Troy, if he translates his Epsom form the Eclipse. In saying that, if he doesn’t there’re alternatives.
The most intriguing rival should prove Dancing Gemini, though. Obviously I backed him the last two times, and still remember with agony how he just came close to win the French Guineas at Longchamp, if not for a shocking ride/tactical decision in that race.
In mind it’s clear that Dancing Gemini was the last two times seriously unfortunate not to finish closer to the winner than he eventually did. Hence I’m delighted to see McMonagle replaced in the saddle. He’s one of the worst judges of pace (in my unqualified view as armchair jockey). Kieran Shoemark is a significant upgrade.
While Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly at Longchamp, he didn’t looked like getting home at Epsom over 12 furlongs. One could argue, though: the way the race panned out for him had a lot to with the fact that he didn ran on to finish in the money.
Saying that, perhaps he had to be ridden as patiently as he was to have any chance to finish the race well. Yet, trailing in last position for a majority of the race was a wasted opportunity from a good draw after having a fine start to the race as well.
From his position so far back he had to use a lot of energy to make progress, quickening right into the fastest part of the race, while having to go wide and enduring interference around Tattenham Corner.
Despite all of this, remarkably Dancing Gemini still finished third fastest over the last three furlongs. It was a serious performance from a seriously talented colt.
It’s not rocket science to conclude the drop to 10 furlongs will be a positive for the colt though. He showed speed for a mile in Group 1 company while finishing strongly over that trip, and did well enough over 12 furlongs, without looking like properly staying it.
The nagging doubt that persists is whether he’s a horse that simply catches the eye, always promising to take the next step, without ever truly making it. He’s yet to run a three-figure speed rating, while catching the eye for various reasons in all his prior starts as well.
At this point in time I remain a believer. Believing that Dancing Gemini can improve for experience, for the trip and the track. If that’s the case, I do believe he’ll give COT certainly a proper race in the closing stages.
When writing this yesterday I thought somewhere around 8 or 9 would the price to get him; waking up this morning, as the ground turned soft, seeing much bigger than that on the Exchanges surprised me. In fact, his best form comes with juice in the ground, so that, I feel, can only enhance his chances today.
10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 14/1(SM)
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3.00 Greyville: Grade 1 – Durban July, 1m 3f
This looks as open a renewal of the Durban July as there has been for a while. Mike De Kock said on preview night he feels the three-year-olds have the upper hand these days, but personally I’m not so sure.
From a handicapping perspective not too many horses scream “well in” but to De Kock’s point, 3-year-old colt Green With Envy has the makings of a fair favourite and on the basis of Weight For Age.
The way he won the Daily News 2000 when last seen where took the scenic route around the final bend, coming from well off the pace, was mightily impressive. There is every chance he’ll get the additional distance and can improve again, especially at a track he’s 3 from 3.
The danger is the whether he’ll get a good trip. Green With Envy is usually ridden stone cold, one who’s winning his races thanks to a devastating turn of foot.
Two issues with that in the July: it’s a big 18-runner field. He’s never encountered that. It’s a different beast compared to winning a 9-runner Cape Derby with plenty of space.
He may not get a perfect trip, and crucially, a possibly sedate enough pace may see his turn of foot blunted as he’ll have to quicken into fastest part of the race, having to make up a lot of ground, potentially.
Dolphin’s Cup Trial winner Oriental Charm is another dangerous 3-year-old, if he can stay the trip. He likes this track, won the Group 3 Trial nicely, was a strong runner-up in the Grade 2 1900 and will move forward, likely enjoying the run of the race.
Saying that, stamina is a question, given he’s yet to win beyond 9 furlongs and seemed to run out of gas in the Cape Derby.
Last years impressive July winner Winchester Mansion enjoyed the perfect race twelve months ago, as well as the perfect preparation leading up to the big race.
A bigger weight, far from a perfect preparation, he’d need everything to go absolutely right on the day to see him go back to back.
Obviously you can’t dismiss last years runner-up See It Again who travelled like the winner with 200m to go, but ultimately got outstayed by Winchester Mansion in a thriller to the line.
He’s been running to strong form earlier this year in hot races, but only was seen once since January in preparation, suggesting not all went totally to plan. On the other hand, that “prep run” four weeks ago was an excellent 3rd in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge.
He’s got to defy top-weight here and that adds to the difficulty, as does his hold-up running style if the pace is slow.
Second highest weight in the race Royal Victory can’t be discounted after winning the Grade 1 Champions Challenge back in April. He raced only twice over 10 furlongs, and won two Grade 1’s. If he can stretch out over the extended trip here, he must go close.
This years Met winner Double Superlative gets the assistance of Danny Muscutt once again, who’s flying in for this race. The talk is that he’s a little short of peak fitness, though I’d be more worried about the trip.
Lightly raced Barbaresco was badly interfered with in the Daily News, was hanging in the home straight as well, and yet he stayed on the extremely well in the closing stages.
He should get home over the extended July trip, may have more to offer and could be ridden a bit closer to the pace this time from the #2 draw. He’s a real chance and the 3-year-old I’d fancy most today.
However, in my view, they all have to beat Justin Snaith’s gelding Future Swing. The son of Futura, is the pick of South Africa’s superstar jockey Richard Fourie, and that’s a vote of confidence in itself.
Snaith has been incredibly positive about Future Swing, who enjoyed a perfect prep, with the July as his target this season: a lovely comeback run in April, followed by staying on strongly to land the Grade 2 1900 here at Greyville over 9.5f.
He’s not an unexposed horse, with 18 starts and 6 wins on his CV. However, he’s one, you could argue, who had this specific day in mind for a long time, having been saved somewhat to not show the handicapper his true class, especially over these sort of trips.
In his three seasons he raced only three times beyond 9 furlongs: there was the aforementioned Grade 2 victory, and there was a Listed success over 10 furlongs as well as back in January the ultra impressive win in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Cup over 1m 4.5f.
He’s got the speed for shorter trips and the stamina to see out the July distance without a problem. A gelding who comes into his own now as he gets older, having strengthened up significantly. Versatile, with the top rider on board, a lovely draw in #4 to move forward from, with Snaith saying they’ll ride him positively.
Yes, from a pure handicapping perspective he’s giving kilos away to th likes Oriental Charm and Without A Question. But the July is a different race and trip. I fancy him to be a stronger stayer than those two, no matter the weight.
If the pace isn’t too hot, that will ensure he’s going to be in a prime position and whatever way it pans out I can see the scenario that at the top of the straight he’s send on to win the race with his superior stamina seeing him hard to catch.
10pts win – Future Swing @ 10/1 (SM)
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4.00 Beverley: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f
Giselles Defence obviously has a huge chance being able to run off the same 71 mark that saw him win comfortably at Epsom three days ago. Saying that, this is a different track, and the ground possibly faster than he wants it, given the overall profile.
Much more appeal makes God Of Fire coming off a superb seasonal reappearance after changing yards and having been gelded during his absence.
He was an excellent runner-up at Salisbury three weeks ago and should improve for the run, his second for the Kubler yard as a gelding.
That day he was quickly out of the gates, chased the pace but looked still quite fresh as he was hanging around the bend. He was a little bit flat footed and not ideally placed on the inside, also hanging ever so slightly, at a crucial stage of the race between 3 and 2 furlongs from home, where the eventual winner made his decisive move.
God Of Fire eventually found his stride in the closing stages and finished the best in the final furlong, in fact. That was strong race, I thought, and the winner a good one. Only 2lb up for the run, is possibly lenient.
Jim Crowley in the saddle today for a yard in strong form, in a race where the pace could fall into his lap, the wider than normally ideal draw won’t be an issue. God Of Fire should get an easy way toward the front and could be placed in prime position.
So Grateful drops further in grade and has been given a proper chance by the handicapper, which allows him to race in class 6, after he started his season three runs back at Doncaster in a hot class 4 Handicap.
That was an eye catching performance as he was up with a hot pace and looked like to be possibly winning with a furlong to go, before getting tired badly in the closing stages.
He was far from disgraced chasing the pace in a strong race at Carlisle subsequently, although when last seen at Catterick he couldn’t confirm the promise of those earlier runs.
Now at Hamilton over 6f, the stiff finish will stretch his stamina. But this isn’t a strong race, he was a strong second off 4lb higher over this course and distance last year.
So Grateful achieved two 61+ speed ratings last year as well, and the Doncaster run last month especially suggested he’s able to run to a similar level.
The fast ground should help to get home, so should the 7lb claim of Lewis Chalkley. Obviously with only one turf win to his name, he’s overall an infrequent winner and not one to trust too much. But off a 61 mark, in this race, he looks good value.
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