I’ve backed Kindest Nation before and am prepared to give her a final chance, today in a pretty poor race, with ground, trip and pace scenario likely to suit this filly.
I think she’s better than her official 70 rating in these conditions. I don’t think she appreciates any firm in the going, and that was the case the last two times.
As poor as the most recent Newmarket run looked, ground aside, from the #1 draw she was pretty early beaten, racing somewhat isolated toward the far rail early on, and first and second racing on the other side.
She ran much better the three times prior: first at Haydock, travelling well for quite a long time, but stuck behind the leaders for a run, before fading over the mile.
Her Sandown front-running performance in a hot Class 4 Handicap suggested she’s capable of winning in a slightly easier race off her then mark, so did that excellent runner-up performance at Beverley, where she followed-up on an eyecatching Southwell victory.
Kindest Nation remains lightly raced, this is only her 7th career start, fourth time in a Handicap, and probably only the second time over the ideal trip and ground.
Headgear on should help her to stay sharp and be fast out of the gate to get to an advantageous prominent racing position, given this course and distance but also the possible pace scenario. A solid 3lb claimer on board seems the “cherry on the cake”.
10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 15/2
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7.10 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
If Covert Mission can regain some form second up off a small break he’ll be possibly hard to beat off a seriously dangerous mark over an ideal course and distance with a favourable pace scenario.
Granted, his last two runs have been poor showings. However, he missed the break at Bath and was stuck behind horses in the home straight, while he did way too much too soon from his #7 draw at Lingfield last time out.
Both races were deep and worked out well in the meantime. I feel those runs weren’t quite as bad as the bare form suggests. Especially as he dropped to a mark of 61 now, 4lb below his last winning mark overall, and 9lb below his last winning mark on sand.
The pace scenario looks probably favourable for him, especially from a low draw with not too many other aggressive possible leaders in the race.
Cheek-pieces are back on – he raced once with them a few years ago and finished a strong runner-up. So that’s another positive in my book.
This is a weak 0-65 Handicap for this time of the year on the All-Weather and Covert Mission looks seriously overpriced with the various bigger odds up for grabs on the exchanges.
Ancient Times looks ready to rock of his lowered mark in this slightly easier race than the last two times, where, in fairness, he ran with plenty of credit and better than bare form suggested.
The most recent Lingfield performance was the ‘worst’ of his three runs in 2023, but by no means a poor run, in a hot race that looks strong form already.
He caught the eye the two times prior on turf. Heavily bumped by a rival leaving the stalls, he had to quickly get back into stride, which is difficult over the minimum trip. He ran home really well, with the second fastest final furlong split, bar the impressive winner.
He was bang on the hot pace on his seasonal reappearance at Yarmouth and showed an equally likeable attitude in the closing stages, also running to a strong 75 speed rating.
Ancient Times is 4lb lower now than back in April and in this grade on fast ground over 5 furlongs his past form is seriously competitive. In this smaller field the #6 draw shouldn’t be an issue, he should find it easy enough to cross over the inside rail and chase likely pace setter Cuban Breeze.
10pts win – Ancient Times @ 11/2
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19.50 Ffos Las: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Doha Bu Thaila should enjoy this drop in trip after she seemed to struggle to get home the last time over 7f, especially after chasing the pace keenly.
She travelled best that day at Lingfield and came with a winning move 2f out, but couldn’t get passed her rival, also being pushed toward the rail by said rival, which made her lose momentum.
This looks a strong form with the winner having won subsequently again. She remains on the same mark, which may underestimate her – the full-sister ran in Group 2’s and is currently rated in the 90’s.
She may not turn out that good, headgear is off today and the jockey booking not looking too promising. But she looks overpriced, given the strong handicap debut recently, suggesting there’s certainly more to come.
Great run by Henry Longfellow in the St James’s Palace Stakes to finish a gallant runner-up – what a fantastic race that was. Beaten, as close as it was, by a better horse on the day.
Rosallion couldn’t have been more impressive, though. He travelled, he quickened – that was impressive! A rematch would be intriguing: Rosallion had the better draw, Henry had to be used up a bit more in the early stages to get to a prominent position and was a bit keen as well.
However, I feel Henry Longfellow may have more scope for improvement if he moves up to 10 furlongs. You’d think the Eclipse could be an ideal race for him. But we know his stable has a prime candidate for that specific race already.
Possibly the Irish Champion Stakes? It’s going to be interesting to see where Ballydoyle routes Henry next. He should win a Group 1 this season.
No good fortune last night for my other two selections: Port And Starburd was incredibly well-backed, went off 2/1 fav… just to miss the break badly. Barnsnape Boy looks a lost hope, I’m afraid.
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4.25 Ascot: Group 1 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f
Perhaps backing anything else than Auguste Rodin is hoping in vain. Because if he puts his best foot forward he’ll be too good for this field.
On the better ground he likes most, over this trip, he looks bound for a return to his best form. Certainly if he’s anywhere near the form he showed in the Irish Champion Stakes, the clear standout piece here, he’ll be tough to beat.
I reckon with a stable mate not drawn too far away, they’ll try to give him a nice lead to chase, somewhat similar to Leopardstown. He should strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance, a fine 2nd behind White Birch.
Nonetheless, given he’s shown be not the most trustworthy, he can be taken on. I’m not yet fully sold on Inspiral over 10 furlongs, despite her Santa Anita success. She acts on fast ground, though, that’s as much as we know. She could find herself too far back in this race, possibly, though.
The value in the race in my book is clearly the French filly Blue Rose Cen. From the #4 draw she’ll be nicely positioned, as she usually starts well, and she can lead or track the pace closely.
Her seasonal reappearance caught my eye. She found herself in a pocket from 2 furlongs out, and couldn’t get out until it was too late. She ran home well enough. One would think she wasn’t fully tuned up for that race.
Over the 1 mile 2(ish) furlongs trip her record is strong.: two Group 1 wins against her own sex last year, and an arguably unfortunate 4th in the Nassau Stakes.
Her Diane form, where she achieved a super 104 speed rating, gives her a cracking chance, if she could reproduce it. Obvious question mark is the ground. She never raced on anything this fast.
However, I don’t think her action is too pronounced, and certainly on pedigree she should love it. Her dam won a Grade 1 on proper firm ground in the US and Churchill is a Group 1 winner on good to firm. She’ll be fine, more likely than not.
Whether Blue Rose Cen is good enough against the boys at the top level remains to be seen. She has to be at her very best to have a chance. This field doesn’t look all that deep, though, if you take Auguste Rodin out, given my reservations about Inspiral.
She’ll be in a prime spot, most likely, as the field turns for home and then will be given every chance to run her race. At the prices, I’m prepared to run the risk.
10pts win – Blue Rose Cen @ 10/1
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6.50 Nottingham: Class 5 Handicap, 5f
Strong Johnson seems to hit some form again and may have found an ideal race to score today. He had three solid runs since January, especially the last two since returning to turf off a small break.
At York in a hot Handicap he was still somewhat outclassed, although he showed lovely early speed. Last time at Ripon he showed good pace once again, and ran well for a long time over a trip that’s probably a stretch in that grade, especially if the pace is hot.
He dropped to a mark of 77 now, and is back over the minimum trip, down in class as well. The last time he ran in class 5 he won nicely at Redcar, and followed up a few weeks later off a 79 mark.
Those performances aren’t that long ago. He hit decent speed ratings regularly in 2023 and his last three performances suggest he’s ready to hit the same hights again.
Any juice in the ground won’t be an issue given his ground versatile record. The #1 draw is the only small negative. But I hope, given Little Melody is drawn in #3, that the pace will develop on his side, so he can follow her for a lead closely and Ryan Sexton can press the button 2f out.
10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 4/1
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7.50 Nottingham: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f
I loved the recent run from Standbackandlook at Leicester. A significant improvement to his to prior Handicap runs. A change in tactics made all the difference.
He bumped into a well-handicapped winner, but also wasn’t helped by his wide draw, that saw him travelled wide for the first two furlongs and spending plenty of energy to get to the front.
He travelled well and gradually winded up the tempo, eventually finishing a clear second best on the day. He was possibly somewhat flattered given the sedate nature of the pace in the middle part of the race, one could argue, though.
But he showed a nice attitude running hard under pressure and looks better than his current 55 rating, now only in his 4th handicap start, with positive tactics.
His family produced plenty of winners, mostly over middle-distances, and the dam should offset the speedy sire, who also has got winners over 10 furlongs already.
The pace scenario looks potentially muddling today, and that will play into Standbackandlook’ hands. He can simply move forward, lead or sit second, nicely placed, and could have too much in hand off his current 55 rating.
A winner is always nice, especially coming off THAT Saturday… but it could – maybe should have been – two winners.
Spring Is Sprung made all to win nicely at Pontefract. Safari Dream only beaten in the dying strides after going off way too fast.
Penalty Shootout was supremely well-backed but faded like the majority of horses I back these days. Probably did too much too soon and didn’t get home.
Spring Is Sprung makes all under Archie Young in our opener, the Happy Birthday Alexia "Southport" Chesters Apprentice Handicap, in a latest success for the in-form @ptmidgley stable pic.twitter.com/ZO41bRxkEf
Shahnaz could enjoy a perfect race, up with the pace in a race where not too many may want to make it a hot race for the lead. The mare clearly is returning in some fine form, as evidenced by her recent reappearance over this course and distance.
She loves it here: 2 wins from 4 runs, and the most recent one highly encouraging when fifth, less than four lengths beaten.
She was a bit sluggish out of the gates but quickly moved forward to lead, travelling nicely on the bridle. She showed a lovely attitude once under pressure and kept going before eventually eased in the final furlong.
The run should put her spot on for today. An additional pound off the mark is a bonus. She still ran some good speed ratings last season, two times 55+ in fact, and if she strips fitter today, there’s no reason not to believe she’s still that good.
A fine low draw will help to keep the effort to a minimum at the beginning, as long as she starts quickly. This is also a weaker contest than three weeks ago. There’s some money coming all morning for her, no surprise (from 10’ss as low as 4/1 now, but Exchanges still give 6.4-8 for a proper stake).
As competitive as this race looks, less than a handful should be serious contenders, and of those I reckon Herakles makes plenty of appeal to run – at least – to form.
His most recent Beverley run was eyecatching as he stormed to the front and led as part of a trio. He was travelling much the best, still ahead half a furlong from home and only late beaten by two horses from further back, to finish 3rd, eventually.
Herakles performed with credit, and mostly warranted an upgrade, in a majority of his six runs in 2024, since he came back from a break and wind operation.
Since then he finished four times in the money and ran respectably in two races of higher level. He’s down in 0-68 today, a level he should have the class to win.
Back in April the 4-year-old achieved a career-best speed rating on the All-Weather, and he followed up with two strong efforts on turf, at Pontefract in deep ground, and at Beverley latest, on a fast surface.
The decent ground today is certainly fine for him, even if it continues to dry out further. Even though still missing a W on turf, he’s got 4 placing from 7 starts over the minimum trip and the recent runs suggest it’s a matter of time before he wins.
These undulating tracks, like Ripon, seem to suit him best as well. He’s not quite ideally drawn, but #5 won’t give to many excuses I reckon, given his fine early speed will ensure he gets quickly close to the pace that may develop, as so often, toward the stands’ side.
Finally a winner! The wait was long… and painful. What a nightmare over the last weeks. Thankfully Dion Baker managed to fight gamely to get his head in front when it mattered most in a thriller of a race at Brighton yesterday afternoon.
He went off a 5/2 favourite. The 4/1 I got were good value; though, of course, nothing to shout about if you burned through last years profits as quickly as I normally do through a pack of Tuc Crackers. Hopefully things turn for the better from now on….
Giant looks a different horse since his gelding last October. The 4-year-old showed glimpses of ability in the past, but was often too keen for his own good.
Since his reappearance at Kempton in March, where he won in impressive style from the front and achieved a career-best speed rating as well, he was able to follow-up with two more highly credible performances.
Earlier this months, once again at Kempton, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms and that performance suggested he could still be a handful of pounds ahead of his current mark, despite a subsequent rise by 2lb. That may prove lenient, though, given he was only beaten by a head and somewhat unfortunate that day.
Nearly taken out by a badly veering rival right out of the gates, he couldn’t get to lead, but got going quickly again and tracked the hot pace. Inside the final three furlongs he was switched left for effort, appeared flat footed for a few strides, before showing a superb attitude battling hard to the line.
He was only beaten by Thapa Vc, who was extremely well-handicapped that day, and who avoided the red hot early pace, sitting in midfield (goes today, too, may struggle from off the pace today).
No question, today is a deep enough race. Brasil Power with preferred headgear combination and back in form looks potentially ominous. Rajindri loves this CD, and could find herself nicely towed into the home straight. Zero Carbon drops in grade and showed good form lately.
However, none of them appear overly well-handicapped, in my view. Hence what speaks for Giant, beside that he appears still on the up and therefore likely better than a current 82 Official Rating, is his good low draw, and a pace scenario that will suit, for this naturally forward gelding.
An easy lead may or may not be on the cards, but other potential pace setters can be hit an miss with their efforts to lead and only Zero Carbon, drawn right beside Giant, may provide the only real competition.
Given he should have it easy moving forward, whether leading, or perhaps following closely, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle you can expect a proper run, especially over this course and distance (4-1-3).
The price, in fairness, is skinny enough, and right on the edge for me, as my strike rate tends to be poor, comparably to what it should be, at the lower end of prices.
Saying that I was happy enough to see 4’s able to get matched completely this morning and I’d have him about a point shorter, if I had to price up the race, simply because he’s the most rock solid, in-form selection, who’ get his race and may still be ahead of his mark.
This doesn’t look an overly deep renewal of the Musidora. Perhaps we said the same last year, when Soul Sister romped home? That was quite the day to celebrate for me… good old days.
Today I’m yet again keen on finding a way to get the favourite beat. For all that it doesn’t appear to be an easy task: Friendly Soul clearly is a filly with an abundance of talent. This daughter of Kingman slaughtered her rivals in the Pretty Polly Stakes ten days ago and achieved an excellent 98 speed rating that day as well.
Can she cope with the step up in trip today? The pedigree gives her every opportunity, though, she showed plenty of pace and may have to do the ‘donkey work’ today once again. On the other hand, Gosden’s have a tremendous record in this race.
Given we only have seen her twice so far, it’s hard to know where her ceiling is. The same can be said for a couple of other fillies in this field, at this stage of the season, and I’m always prepared to take on an odds-on shot, especially if there’s a meaningful alternative.
I’m especially intrigued by Mayfair stepping up in trip. I’m keeping an eye on the daughter of Justify since her eyecatching debut at Galway last August.
That was a pretty strong maiden with four subsequent winners, including recent Salsabil Stakes runner-up Purple Lilly. Mayfair did plenty wrong that day, and has continued to appear learning on the job ever since.
Her seasonal reappearance at the Curragh caught my attention once again. She was up with the pace, always in the headwind without cover, and that performance warranted an upgrade, given the winner was well covered throughout.
The form isn’t anything to shout about, and it was disappointing to see Mayfair getting beaten at Dundalk the next time, albeit by a potentially smart filly in Star Magnolia.
Mayfair is a full-sister of 104 rated Unless, a progressive 3-year-old last season, who improved with experience and who won a Listed race over 10 furlongs, plus was a fine runner-up in the Group 3 Royal Whip next time.
Unless did her best work on decent ground, and you would hope Mayfair can improve for better ground today as well. So far she raced only on heavy or on the sand. Showers are rolling on through Wednesday at York but shouldn’t turn the ground soft.
To my untrained eye Mayfair never looked like a filly with the speed and gears for 7 furlongs. It’s a gamble to move up right away to the Musidora trip, but it’s probably now or never for her to prove that she’s at least as good as her sister.
She should certainly improve for the recent racing experience, should strip fit, should enjoy the ground, the new trip looks a possibility on pedigree, and the race, if you’re prepared to take on the favourite, wide open.
In the hope Bated Breeze is allowed to run on merit today, he looks seriously overpriced in this race tonight. He met some of these before and is better off in the weights over an identical course and distance.
Most importantly, his two runs this season have been noteworthy. He caught the eye early April over this CD especially, which was backed up by a good speed rating that day as well.
From a wider than ideal gate he was awkwardly away and had to settle in rear, trailing the field, keenly enough. He quickened in visually arresting style from 3f out right into the fastest part of the race. He couldn’t quite get back to the leaders who enjoyed the run of the race, though.
Those first two home ran good speed ratings and were clearly well-handicapped on their handicap debuts. Bated Breeze also ran a 62 speed rating and I felt that performances warranted a chunky upgrade, which could mean he’s potentially well-handicapped off 64.
Fancied at Bath the next time, he didn’t run without merit in a seriously strong race, I thought. He couldn’t keep up the red hot pace after travelling strongly behind the leader until 2f out.
A #1 draw today offers options to move forward, as he did the last time. He’ll have to be at his best out of the gate as some pace pressure is expected to move right across from the wider gates.
If that works out well, the gelding should be in a perfect position and can race just off the lead, covered up. Off a mark of 64 he should have pounds in hand today back on the sand.
It’s Tom Queally’s only ride on the card and he was riding well for this yard lately. So that’s a positive, although the betting is the concern I have, with Bated Breeze going the wrong way.
The market is dominated by unexposed horses who may or may not be well-handicapped. It makes the pace scenario also potentially muddling.
I feel in this context of the unknown, the rather well-known Johnston filly is underestimated here, given she’s likely to run a solid standard and has excuses for a 0/7 record.
Flowering’s last two runs were seriously eye-catching, in fact. She made the list on her penultimate run over this course and distance when locked in a pace battle and doing way too much way too soon, as the finishing speed % also suggested.
I think she did well to finish as close as she did to a well-handicapped winner who also enjoyed the run of the race. The run confirmed the promise Flowering showed in her previous Handicap runs, in my view.
However, perhaps even stronger was the impression the filly gave last time over this CD once again. In a slowly run race she found herself in the worst position over 3 furlongs out and got badly hampered entering the final bend, which didn’t help her positioning.
She still finished the race strongly, coming home faster than the winner, despite not being fully ridden in the final half furlong.
Left on the same mark, she should be a strong chance dropping back to 0-60 here. Joe Fanning is back on board and given this yard often goes forward, I doubt they’ll make the same mistake again as last time out and utilise the #3 draw.
This could turn into a slowly run race too, and then Flowering will be in prime position, I hope. Whether 12 furlongs prove her best trip remains to be seen. But unless someone else moves forward and sets a testing gallop, which seems unlikely, she should find this a perfect test.
Garrick Painter goes back over a mile after two highly encouraging efforts at Dundalk since he moved to Ireland.
He’s been claimed last month on the back of a strong effort over 10 furlongs. From a wide draw he moved quickly forward to get to the front and the stayed for a long time to finish second.
That performance was very much in line with his previous eye-catching run over 7f, on his Dundalk debut. There he utilised a low draw to best effect but also made a lot in front.
He remains still lightly enough raced and these two runs are in line with some of his best efforts, as he ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year in the UK on the All-Weather.
Todays looks an ideal scenario, if new connections want to win. 1m should be his optimum trip. He’s got a low draw in a race that lacks competition for pace.
This natural front-runner should be able to dominate and get the run of the race, which often is an advantage at Dundalk.
10pts win – Garrick Painter @ 15/2
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8.30 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f
Competitive little race, but how’s the pace? Not too many obvious front-runners who are sure to move rapidly forward and set a strong pace here.
I feel those from wider draws have a chance. That brings King Of The Jungle into the mix, who was an eyecatcher last time out, but from #12 may find a way to get beat for these connections, hence another day may be more likely to see him run to form.
The one who makes plenty of appeal from the wider drawn horses is Bluebells Boy. He caught the eye twice now in the space of a month at Chelmsford.
Two back it was a massive effort from the widest draw when he only got caught late off his current mark. Last time up in trip, it was a somewhat unfortunate day in the office.
He was a bit awkward soon after the start, keen in the early part of the race when restraint off the pace. His jockey still took a pull 4f out as he travelled notably strongly into the home straight, where he met all sorts of trouble and had no chance.
Bluebells Boy was well-backed the last two times and looks seriously competitive off this mark, especially as he ran to a 56 speed rating back in July this year, and his two recent runs suggest he’s up to that level of performance still.
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