Tag Archives: Thursday

Betting

Thursday Selections: 7th November 2024

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5.05 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The pace scenario could play into the hands of possibly quite well-handicapped top-weight Strong Johnson. He drops ever so slightly in class, after a couple of strong runs lately.

He can track the pace but is also happy enough in front on his own – with not too much other pace to worry about here in this race today, he could be in an ideal position when it matters most.

His most recent third place effort at Southwell was a big run. That piece of form looks already quite strong the way it starts to work out. He could be the next nto winner.

That day he was soon chasing the leader, having a perfect #2 draw, but also he was doing a lot in the first half of the race, as did the other more prominent races.

Nonetheless, he travelled quite well into the home straight and showed and excellent attitude in the closing stages as he kept going strongly in an attempt to fend of multiple challengers

He achieved a 70 speed rating there, which matched his current mark. He also showed a handful of decent performances this season without getting his head in front, though.

The handicapper has been kind, left him on 70, and given he won off a good deal higher twelve months ago over this course and distance, he must be a prime chance today.

10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam could be the lone speed here, if she can overcome the #7 draw. That’ll be a huge advantage to this speedy, who’s showing excellent form lately.

A fortnight ago over this course and distance she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually.

This was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

She’s down to a mark of 76 now, and ideally would drop in class, but today looks a weak 0-78 Handicap. With a possible pace advantage, she must go close.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 7/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 27th June 2024

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8.45 Hamilton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

So Grateful drops further in grade and has been given a proper chance by the handicapper, which allows him to race in class 6, after he started his season three runs back at Doncaster in a hot class 4 Handicap.

That was an eye catching performance as he was up with a hot pace and looked like to be possibly winning with a furlong to go, before getting tired badly in the closing stages.

He was far from disgraced chasing the pace in a strong race at Carlisle subsequently, although when last seen at Catterick he couldn’t confirm the promise of those earlier runs.

Now at Hamilton over 6f, the stiff finish will stretch his stamina. But this isn’t a strong race, he was a strong second off 4lb higher over this course and distance last year.

So Grateful achieved two 61+ speed ratings last year as well, and the Doncaster run last month especially suggested he’s able to run to a similar level.

The fast ground should help to get home, so should the 7lb claim of Lewis Chalkley. Obviously with only one turf win to his name, he’s overall an infrequent winner and not one to trust too much. But off a 61 mark, in this race, he looks good value.

10pts win – So Grateful @ 11/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 20th June 2024

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2.50 Chelmsford: Class 4 – Handicap, 5f

Almaty Star was caught only in the dying stages at Lingfield earlier this month. She stays over the minimum trip with the cheek-pieces applied for a second time, able to race off the same mark.

She must have a cracking chance from the #1 draw here, even though there is tons of pace competition, it must be said. She caught the eye the last two times now, as her previous Windsor 2nd was also a strong front-running performance.

The filly has great early speed, which is vital over this course and distance, so she can utilise the draw to its fullest. She’s clearly in great form and a mark of 75 is not quite her ceiling. She ran to higher speed ratings in the past.

Obviously her win record is poor, but down to this career-lowest rating, with the top draw and a CD she finished second off 5lb higher last autumn, she’s got a prime chance in a race where few appear overly well-handicapped.

10pts win – Almaty Star @ 5/1

…….

4.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f

 Brassavola looks quite interesting back over this course and distance with a decent draw to attack the race from. She got quite close back in November where she was still leading at half a furlong from home.

Back then she had to overcome a wide draw and did a lot to get across and into a prominent racing position. She edged closer to the leader bit by bit and took it up entering the home straight only to get caught fairly late.

It was a somewhat similar story a few weeks ago at Lingfield where she moved forward from a wider than ideal draw, caught wide early on, before getting to the lead. She hit the home straight in front before getting tired in the final furlong.

Truth told, there are some questions about her stamina credentials over this trip. However, her pretty decent full-sister won in seriously deep ground over a mile and these last two times it was possibly the wide draw that was to her detriment.

With a better draw here, and not much pace competition, she should much easier get to the front. Blinkers fitted should her her to be sharp out of the gate too. This track can ride in favour of those up with the pace, even over these longer trips, especially when the pace is slow, it’s nearly impossible to make up ground.

The yard is in poor form, but hit the crossbar a number of times, so hopefully a turnaround is just around the corner. A good jockey booking will help too.

This family tends to do quite well on the sand, hence off a career-lowest mark  Brassavola looks more than capable of winning over this course and distance.

10pts win –  Brassavola @ 9/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 13th June 2024

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Another winner, thanks to Shahnaz! Finally something to cheer about: Two W’s from four selections (and Safari Dream still hurts, it should have been three) this week so far is a small sample size but maybe signals a return to some form of normality.

It was a strong- and smart ride by Jason Hart who had the mare always at the frontend of the race. She was seriously well-backed all day and the money was right, for once.

……

5.05 Newbury: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

I was sweet on the filly Starproof at Bath a few weeks ago after her huge Ascot run. Unfortunately she didn’t seem to enjoy the track, expanded way too much energy early on and was a long way beaten in the end.

She deserves another chance and this more straightforward track today should suit better. Also that Bath form looks quite strong judged how the winner and especially runner-up have provided a significant boost.

Today could fall into her lap given there may not be too much of a pace and usually she can be quick from the gates and get to the front of the field.

The handicapper has given her a real chance dropping her another couple of pounds, down to her last winning mark, and judged on that Ascot performance, I feel she showed enough to suggest she’s clearly better than a 73 rated filly, as she was on the day.

It was a massive run by Starproof at Ascot when she was coming off a break and a wind operation. The filly was right up with the pace and travelled strongly, eventually lead her group on the far side before getting tired to finish a gallant 5th, a close third in her group, and only 2 lengths beaten.

That was seriously hot race, and it wasn’t a surprise to see her achieve a career-best speed rating that day. I’m prepared to forgive her the Bath performance and given the current form for the yard and the eye-catching jockey booking, I’ll do expect to see a different Starproof today.

10pts win – Starproof @ 9/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 23rd May 2024

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7.17 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Two I like: Jungle Hill was an obvious eyecatcher last time at Wolverhampton. A course and distance winner off his current mark, he’s a big chance. He moves ever so slightly up in class, and with that in mind he’s a short enough price.

I’m more interested in Kessaar Power, who entered my notebook back in March when he caught the eye over a wrong trip at Southwell. He had excuses for the somewhat lesser runs subsequently, although didn’t help his cause with sluggish starts.

That’s a clear danger today. If that happens he’ll be beaten within the first hundred yards. At the same time I’m prepared to take the risk because he’s usually seen up front, has the #1 draw to attack the race from and is seriously well-handicapped, in theory.

This course and distance brought the best out of him in the past. A 4-1-1 record, and his most recent run here was better than the bare form suggests.

Down to a mark of 57, with the solid assistance of 3lb claiming Grace McEntee, the gelding looks ready for the big run. He’s also entered for Yarmouth next week, the flat course he’s been most effective at, suggesting connections may believe the 5-year-old is certainly ready to go close.

10pts win – Kessaar Power @ 11/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 16th May 2024

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3.45 York: Group 2 Dante Stakes, 1m 2.5f

Charlie Appleby is hitting some form of late as his big guns fire, so that adds weight to the fact that Ancient Wisdom has been backed to likely go off a short enough price in a hot Dante Stakes this afternoon.

We haven’t seen the impressive winner of the Futurity Stakes this year yet, that means some questions have to be asked about his fitness. But of course, if he could transfer his juvenile form to this year, he’d be an exciting horse to follow.

Ancient Wisdom’s Autumn Stakes win was the best any of seven going to post today had achieved on speed ratings. Saying that, different ground, and different trip today – let’s see whether he can run to that level of form today. I’m prepared, as so often, to oppose a short priced favourite.

Caviar Hights looks also a highly promising colt, and rates a pretty fair price, indeed. He achieved a superb 104 speed rating in the Listed Newmarket Stakes a fortnight ago.

Given he seemed to have no issues with the trip or the ground, he’s a prime chance today, if he could repeat that performance, which screamed Group 1 class.

Today is a tougher contest, though. And a different track. Those are the only two – albeit small – question marks I’d have.

Once again, though, I’ll have to go with God’s Window today. I’m prepared to forgive his most recent desperately disappointing showing at Chester.

He completely missed the break and it was basically race over there and then. God’s Window has a bit of history in that regard. That’s a clear and obvious question mark.

On the other hand, I remain convinced that’s a colt with serious talent. And the Gosden’s must think so too, otherwise they wouldn’d send him here after the recent disappointment.

To be honest, I can practically copy and paste my thoughts from prior to the Dee Stakes today – they apply 100% once more: the question about the ground has to be brought up again: does he need juice in the ground to be seen to best effect?

What speaks against that notion: his half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs prior to Chester.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit. Hopefully today he doesn’t lose the race at the start, so we get a proper answer to the question how good God’s Window really is.

10pts win – God’s Window @ 15/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th May 2024

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3.05 Chester: Listed Dee Stakes, 1m 2.5f

This looks a seriously competitive renewal of the Dee Stakes, with 4 of 5 colts certainly open to improvement over this trip, with hopes that they will enhance their own Derby credentials.

Obviously, God’s Widow is the one I’m most interested in. One of my Horses to Follow this year, today is an important day for his future prospects.

Initially, having seen the early prices, I wasn’t prepared to back him at short enough odds. But I’m happy to take the drift right now, prices in the realms of 10/3 a touch too big.

The betting has Jayarabe as the 2/1 favourite this morning. You can see why. Two from three, and an impressive seasonal reappearance in the Feilden Stakes last month, he ran to a solid 96 speed rating that day, proved his fitness, and will appreciate moving up in trip today as well.

I can’t fault him other than Chester is a different track that may or may not suit. We don’t know where his ceiling is. The only thing I have against him is the price.

On the other hand, I’m not sure what to make of Bracken’s Laugh. A fine winning return at Chelmsford recently over a mile, he showed promise on his debut, though didn’t get home in deep ground over 10 furlongs, albeit in hot company.

Capulet was beaten by Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford, perhaps with some slight excuses. His juvenile form is setting a good standard, and he should enjoy moving up in trip and surely will be ready to go today.

For all that, the O’Brien yard doesn’t seem in brilliant form lately, and Capulet is likely far down the pecking order, too. A career-best 89 speed rating up until now doesn’t scream “superstar” either.

Harper’s Ferry can’t be totally ignored. He’s got to improve significantly, though. Not impossible, given his pedigree. He’s shown issues at the start in all three career runs, and that’s off-putting.

That brings me to God’s Widow. The clear question mark is the ground. His runs all came with significant juice in the ground. However, he may rather overcame the conditions, than that they are a ‘must’ for him.

His half-sister as well as his dam all won and did well on fast ground, in fact. His action doesn’t imply to my untrained eye that’s he “soft ground slogger”.

However, God’s Widow will absolutely love the step up in trip after having raced over about a mile in all his three career runs to date and looked a highly promising colt.

He achieved a fine 77 speed rating on debut, and showed a likable turn of foot that day at Doncaster despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Subsequently deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes, where he missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Despite being poorly positioned the colt finished in impressive style for third place.

I was delighted with his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham last month. He didn’t beat much, and this was more like a public racecourse gallop for this son of Dubawi.

The positives were clear and obvious, though: he kicked clear easily, posting good sections in soft ground, without having been properly asked. There must be a huge engine under the hood.

The dam was an Oaks Trial winner. The dam sire a King George winner. Dad is no one less than Dubawi. The step up to the 1m 2.5f trip should suit.

Drawn in #1, he can hopefully find a ground saving position behind the likely pace Capulet and possibly Jayarabe.

10pts win – God’s Widow @ 10/3

Betting

Thursday Selections: 9th November 2023

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8.00 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

Crystal Dawn looks seriously well-handicapped in this poor field today as she drops in class and drops down to her most recent winning mark after a seriously noteworthy lto run.

A fortnight ago at Wolverhampton the mare wasn’t the sharpest at the start and subsequently wasn’t helped by a mad keen rival who kept her on the outside.

As a consequence she travelled wide throughout the race, although seemingly going strongly approaching the home turn. The jockey made zero attempts to actually improve position, though, and started riding when it was way too late.

She wasn’t expected in the betting on the day at all. So no surprise to see her finish the way she did. However, she did ran a number of solid races this year, suggesting there’s some mileage left.

Crystal Dawn is now down to a 53 rating, the same she won off last September over this course and distance, and subsequently off 3lb higher at Wolverhampton as well.

The help of a solid 7lb claimer is an added bonus today. Without a doubt she’s a real standout chance here in this poor 0-52 contest, a much easier race than the one she contest the last two times.

Cheek pieces are added and help, hopefully, with sharpness out of the gate, with the aim to utilise the #3 draw to best effect.

10pts win – Crystal Dawn  @ 7/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 26th October 2023

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The hot favourite The Caltonian takes most of the market and that doesn’t appear unfair. It’s a question of whether the 4-year old gelding remains ahead of his mark to make it 3 from 3 in blinkers.

He’s got to carry a 10lb penalty, and may be able to continue his W-streak, having ran to a strong speed rating last time out once again. Perhaps this is a hotter contest today, and carrying top-weight won’t be as easy a task, I believe.

No doubt, he’s the likeliest winner, but I feel at the same time he’s a bit too short in a race I wouldn’t call uncompetitive.

The one I find most intriguing as an alternative is Guiteau. He caught the eye last time over this course and distance, albeit in a slightly easier race, when second behind Fayasel, who’s here today as well, and also an intriguing runner with the pace scenario likely to suit.

Nonetheless, Guiteau, only a pound higher than last time, is the one I’m siding with: after a solid start from #3 he travelled well throughout but was somewhat stuck against the inside rail and lost ground as the race developed.

He was held up around the home bend when the crucial moves where made and that cost him the race. Once out in the clear he made strong progress and ran home the fastest over the last three furlongs.

That was only his 3rd run on the All-Weather and close to his career-best. Even though Guiteau remains a maiden, I feel he’s got scope for improvement on the sand and could have a some pounds in hand.

He can be a bit keen early on. Hence pace is a question mark. From his #2 draw I hope with a more experienced rider in the saddle, Murphy won’t hesitate and simply grabs the lead if the early fractions are slow. Guiteau has performed well from the front in the past.

Otherwise, if Fayasal or Mayor Gatsby set out fast, then Guiteau is well placed to track them for a prime spot as the field turns for home. That’s the theory. In any case at 9’s he’s overpriced today.

10pts win – Guiteau @ 9/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 10th August 2023

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It wasn’t quite the dream start on Tuesday: Albegone finished 2nd, beaten by a head in a dramatic finish. At least I got a solid run for my money, which couldn’t be said for Mudskipper who went backwards as soon as he hit the home straight, much the same way his price went throughout the evening.

……..

2.25 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Plenty of question marks over most in this field, but 3-year-old gelding Dartman is a rock-solid runner who caught the eye in a hot York Handicap when last seen.

That day he led and set a solid pace, especially in the first half of the race. He hit the home straight in front but was soon heavily challenged.

Racing room became tight and he got hampered over 1.5f out, though was perhaps already going backwards. Nonetheless, I was impressed by the attitude he showed to keep going, as he found some momentum in the final furlong and run well to the line.

Dartman remains a maiden after six career starts, but showed promise a number of times and looks capable of a big run off a 74 handicap mark.

This isn’t a strong race and 7 furlongs at Brighton could suit him really well, if he handles the ground.

This is also William Carver’s only ride on the day. He goes pretty well and is one of the stronger riders here. The negative is the drift in the betting this morning. Although, it makes Dartman a very backable price in my book.

10pts win – Dartman @ 7/1

………

7.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

I can see the appeal of unexposed Muktamil off a low mark as the son of Sea The Stars should enjoy this trip. But as many in this field, plenty of question marks on fitness and form. This is wide open.

Not sure today is her day, the drying ground however should be a big help, Beccara Rose appears overpriced as she moves up in trip as well and should enjoy the 10 furlongs at this galloping track.

I thought her last run at Kempton was huge given the circumstances in what was a strong race. A repeat of that level of performance will see her go close.

There she was slowly away, but soon recovered and doing probably too much to move quickly into a midfield position.

She kicked on well over two furlongs out to finish second fastest over the last three furlongs but couldn’t quite get to speedier and better placed rivals.

The return to turf will suit as long as the ground continues to dry, which is expected during a hot day. I believe she could be well-handicapped here if allowed to run on merit.

She showed promise in the past and had excuses in her lesser runs as she didn’t seem to enjoy cut in the ground this year and doesn’t seem to have an overly pronounced knee action, while her full-sister (highest OR 91) did all her winning on decent ground as well.

But it remains noteworthy Beccara Rose was a strong 4th behind Soul Sister on her debut – in soft – last year.

10pts win – Beccara Rose @ 17/2