Tag Archives: October

Betting

Friday Selections: 1st November 2024

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7.00 Dundalk: Handicap (50-80), 1m

Punk Poet could have found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways. He returns to the mile trip, his preferred course and distance, will enjoy a decent draw and showed plenty of encouraging signs three weeks ago at this venue.

That day over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome a wide #12 draw but quickly managed to grab the lead moving up on the outside in the first furlong, just before hitting the bend.

Largely leading uncontested – he also did a lot to keep it that way – Punk Poet travelled best into the home straight, kept going strongly under pressure, before getting tired in the final furlong to finish a gallant 3rd place.

This was a huge run, following on from two decent prior runs, as he starts to take advantage of an easing mark. He’s dangerous off 73 over CD, 5lb lower than his last win twelve months.

He doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating and a piece of form that works out well, given the 7th and 9th of that race performed strongly in the meantime.

Punk Poet could be hard to beat today, as he should be able to slot in right behind the likes of No Knee Ever and Rampage, should they elect to want to lead, or he can simply to his own thing from the front. The #5 draw allows for multiple options, and all should suit.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/2

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers 24/25 #1

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Winter is coming… With that in mind I’m starting a fresh list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is going to be a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

……..

Ancient Times
10/10/24 – 8.30 Southwell:

Right up with the fast pace, being just about the quickest through the early part of the race. Fought gamely but eventually fell away in the final furlong in a hot race.

One who caught the eye a number of times in the past. Down to a career-lowest mark, with options to improve on the AW. First run since a small break and could be dangerous in 0-70 class.

Oso Rapido
10/10/24 – 6.00 Southwell:

Overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. For a long time in the race, a massive performance in a decent field.

Not as prolific on the sand as on turf, but didn’t have too many chances to show his best over his preferred 6f on AW. Clearly in decent form, ran some fine races this season, and will benefit from a drop in grade.

Dimsons
10/10/24 – 7.15 Chelmsford:

Very keen from the #8 draw, moved forward, pulling hard in the lead. Got badly tired in the closing stages but was in the mix for a while in a strong race. Did better than bare form suggest here on handicap debut.

Seemed to have improved since being gelded. A drop in grade could help, maybe some headgear, given he can be quite free. Still lightly raced, may also enjoy a drop in trip. There should be a bit of improvement in him once the penny drops.

Punk Poet
11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Moved quickly forward from a wide draw to grab the lead, uncontested, but also did a lot to keep it that way. Travelled best into the home straight, before getting tired in the final furlong.

Huge run, following on from to decent prior runs, staring to take advantage of an ease in the mark. Dangerous off 73, if the handicapper is kind, next time over 7f or perhaps slightly better over a mile at Dundalk from a better draw.

Won last November off 78 over a mile here, and doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating.

Little Empire
11/10/24 – 6.30 Dundalk:

Runner-up in the Punk Poet race – had to overcome the widest draw. Travelled wide through the first furlong, before making rapid progress to settle just behind the leader. Gutsy in the closing staged to grab second eventually.

Could have still a bit more to offer on this surface off this sort of mark given he was largely progressive all season. Had valid excuses (ground and reared in stalls) in his last two runs.

Achieved a career-best speed rating here and hopefully the handicapper won’t react too harshly, then he’s a proper chance over 7f with a better draw.

Tamrat
11/10/24 – 7.00 Dundalk:

Quickest through the first two furlongs in a fast race. Never let the tempo ease too much and was going pretty well from the front, where not much else got involved. Eventually just beaten by a seriously well handicapped winner.

Clearly improved from the application of blinkers, as evident last time already. The drop in trip helped also here. Ran a career-best speed rating, in line with his current rating, that suggests now that the trip has been found he could have a good deal more to offer off this current rating.

Princess Shabnam
12/10/24 – 7.20 Chelmsford:

Set way too hot early fractions and no surprise to see her fade away eventually. Strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

The Kempton 2nd in September is seriously strong form, especially the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also.

Strong Johnson
17/10/24 – 6.30 Southwell:

Soon chased the leader having a perfect #2 draw but also did a lot in the first half of the race. Travelled quite well into the home straight and showed excellent attitude in the closing stages to keep going despite multiple challengers to hold on for 3rd place.

Appears quite well handicapped now, achieved a 70 speed rating here, matching his current mark. Showed a handful of decent performances this season without winning, but now a return to the sand should help if the handicapper is kind.

At his best over 5f but stays the additional furlong. Won last November over the minimum trip at Newcastle.

Bell Shot
17/10/24 – 6.45 Chelmsford:

Quickly into the lead, set seriously hot fractions, helped by the eventual winner who pushed it further. Fell apart in the second half but no shame behind the impressive winner.

Ran to some serious ratings this season and should be able to translate this to the sand as well now. Will benefit from a drop in class and eased mark soon. Would also be intriguing if dropped in trip.

Hedge Fund
17/10/24 – 7.45 Chelmsford:

Moved forward from wide draw to grab the lead. Did way too much early on yet travelled very strongly into the home straight, still ahead at the final furlong marker.

Surely ready to win soon, down to a career-lowest mark, especially in a slightly easier race (0-80). Possesses enough pace to win over minimum trip as well.

Pop Dancer
17/10/24 – 8.15 Chelmsford:

Rapidly moved forward to win the race for the lead in the first furlong, doing too much there and then. Ran an honest race to the lead for 3rd eventually.

Slowly drops in the mark, coinciding with two improving performances lately. Not the force of old but in this grade always dangerous from the front when he can dominate.

Guiteau
19/10/24 – 6.00 Wolverhampton:

Off to a decent start from #5 to chase a hot pace. Midway followed the leader closely with small gap to the main field. Headed leader 2f out, but soon beaten. Ran honest race to the line.

Could become intriguing soon with additional help from handicapper and possible drop in class on the cards. Ran 3x 66 speed ratings on turf this year, and ran to a fair 59 speed rating here as well, a career-best on sand.

Salamanca Lad
19/10/24 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Brave performance from the front and only ran down deep in the final furlong, with the winner coming from well off the pace.

Two huge runs prior as well. The Sandown form worked out well in the meantime, and he ran a career-best speed rating at Southwell when beaten in the dying strides.

Uncomplicated front-runner, starts well, and could still be a couple of pounds ahead in the right race. Probably doesn’t truly stay 10f, although always a chance if no pace pressure.

Betting

Friday Selections: 27th October 2023

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Guiteau won well last night. Brilliantly executed ride by Oisin Murphy, who must have read my preview beforehand, as it turned exactly that way – he made most of his draw and the lack of early pace, moved forward, and had enough in the tank to fend off the odds-on favourite.

Sometimes it works out that way. More often than not it doesn’t. A solid confidence booster, nonetheless. Two winners within a week now – what an unknown feeling that is… or was.

…….

8.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The likely hot pace in this race should ensure this is going to be a fair contest over the minimum trip over a CD that often can turn into a “grab the lead and it’s game over”.

There’s probably too much pressure on any of the early leaders today, and that may set it up for someone who’s tracking the pace without getting involved in the early tussle for the lead.

No question the race is competitive, but that helps provide a healthy market with value on offer. One I’m waiting for a handful of months to back is Murbih, who’s certainly too big in the betting, if in it to win it.

Being mindful of the fact the gelding has an entry on Monday at Newcastle, a CD he achieved a career-best back in March.

However, I feel Murbih is well-suited to Wolverhampton, as his record reads 5-1-3, and in some of those races he was quite unfortunate not to finish closer than he did. He usually runs well here.

In addition, the 5-year-old has been in excellent recent form. His latest run earlier this month over this CD was a huge performance. A strongly-run race, he was positioned in midfield, travelled strongly into the home straight. He got past one of the early pace setters approaching the line, however he was also beaten by two horses from off the pace, who were ridden with more restraint.

His two runs prior at Wolverhampton warranted an upgrade due to different circumstances also. In any case, he’s in excellent form, although, on the surface, perhaps also in the grip of the handicapper.

Murbih is down to a 67 handicap mark now, though. A modest reduction from last time-out. He’s not been this low for a while, though, and ran seriously well off higher, including achieving strong speed ratings this year.

And with that in mind I do believe he’s handicapped to win, also keeping in mind the way this race could shape: the #1 will give Murbih the opportunity to let the pace setters from wider draws storm ahead, and he can slot in just behind on the inside saving ground today.

In an ideal world he gets the gap as they turn home and then picks them off to win by half a lengths.

Obviously, he’s a frustrating sort who often runs well and doesn’t win all that often. But this looks a great opportunity, for a horse in form, with a good draw, a lovely mark at his preferred course and distance.

10pts win – Murbih @ 17/2

Betting

Thursday Selections: 26th October 2023

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The hot favourite The Caltonian takes most of the market and that doesn’t appear unfair. It’s a question of whether the 4-year old gelding remains ahead of his mark to make it 3 from 3 in blinkers.

He’s got to carry a 10lb penalty, and may be able to continue his W-streak, having ran to a strong speed rating last time out once again. Perhaps this is a hotter contest today, and carrying top-weight won’t be as easy a task, I believe.

No doubt, he’s the likeliest winner, but I feel at the same time he’s a bit too short in a race I wouldn’t call uncompetitive.

The one I find most intriguing as an alternative is Guiteau. He caught the eye last time over this course and distance, albeit in a slightly easier race, when second behind Fayasel, who’s here today as well, and also an intriguing runner with the pace scenario likely to suit.

Nonetheless, Guiteau, only a pound higher than last time, is the one I’m siding with: after a solid start from #3 he travelled well throughout but was somewhat stuck against the inside rail and lost ground as the race developed.

He was held up around the home bend when the crucial moves where made and that cost him the race. Once out in the clear he made strong progress and ran home the fastest over the last three furlongs.

That was only his 3rd run on the All-Weather and close to his career-best. Even though Guiteau remains a maiden, I feel he’s got scope for improvement on the sand and could have a some pounds in hand.

He can be a bit keen early on. Hence pace is a question mark. From his #2 draw I hope with a more experienced rider in the saddle, Murphy won’t hesitate and simply grabs the lead if the early fractions are slow. Guiteau has performed well from the front in the past.

Otherwise, if Fayasal or Mayor Gatsby set out fast, then Guiteau is well placed to track them for a prime spot as the field turns for home. That’s the theory. In any case at 9’s he’s overpriced today.

10pts win – Guiteau @ 9/1

Betting

Sunday Selections: 22nd October 2023

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First winner in roughly two months yesterday (with seven weeks break in between, though). And it couldn’t have been a better one. Big Rock demolished the field in the QEII.

I couldn’t quite believe the performance. As he established an eight lengths lead….. he didn’t tire and romped home in spectacular fashion.

The other jockeys seemed asleep on the wheel, on the other hand. How could they all gift this highly talented colt such a huge, uncontested lead?

It was a superb run by Swingalong in the Champions Sprint. She finished a gallant 4th, outran her odds and briefly looked like she may even win. Cant complain.

…….

3.20 Leopardstown: Listed Trigo Stakes, 10f

The two top-rated horses Lafayette and Sprewell are clearly the horses who should fight this out. They stand out in terms of their achievements this year.

Lafayette has been consistent for the most part this year, enjoys soft ground, stays the trip and will find this opposition a bit easier. Nonetheless, there’s an argument to be made that he’s been seen to best effect away from Leopardstown.

The opposite is true for Sprewell. He showed a lot of promise early in the season when he improved from a winning reappearance at Naas to land the Derby Trial here at Leopardstown in fine style as he denied solid yardstick Up And Under.

I wrote before how much I loved his Epsom Derby run, even though it’s probably fair to say Sprewell didn’t put his talent to best effect in two subsequent races.

In saying that, there’re solid reasons for that. For one, he raced against hot opposition in the Irish Derby and then in the Irish Champion Stakes. He also, it seems pretty clear now, prefers a softer going.

Leopardstown, 10 furlongs and plenty of give in the ground will suit today. Sprewell should enjoy this significant drop in class as well. He deserves his chance today heading the field as the favourite in my mind.

I’m happy I got my full stake matched over night at a touch over 5/2 on various exchanges, though that is rapidly disappearing and I probably would find anything below 2/1 too short for me personally, just as a side note.

10pts win – Sprewell @ 5/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 21st October 2023

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1.50 Ascot: Group 1 British Champions Sprint, 6f

It’s going to be interesting to see how the track rides and the draw it’s going to favour on this going, with the switch to the inside track.

This race could – certainly from a pace angle – shape to favour the lower drawn horses. That should very much favour Kinross who isn’t drawn too far away from those who’ll likely move forward.

Nonetheless, there are two bigger prices that I quite like to possibly outrun their odds: the two fillies Swingalong and drawn right beside her, Believing.

Both ran huge races in the same race last time out at Haydock, when third and fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Different track and ground today, yet the two fillies have shown to handle soft underfoot conditions.

Swingalong started off her season with a fine effort in the Fred Darling on deep ground. She didn’t get home in those conditions over 7 furlongs, and certainly didn’t stay a mile in even worse conditions at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas.

But when dropped to 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, she outrun her big odds to finish a superb 3rd. She followed on to show excellent early speed and guts in the closing stages to land the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.

At Haydock, when last seen, she was completely isolated on the stands’ side, which wasn’t ideal. The filly did well to hang on for fourth and probably could have finished much closer if she would have raced as part of the main field, I felt.

Believing raced just on the outside of the main bunch for the most part of the race that day, and she finished closer to the stands side ultimately, racing without company for the last two furlongs, which wasn’t an advantage. I loved her attitude, nonetheless, as she kept on for third place all the way to the line.

She achieved a career-best speed rating of 100 that day, having shown excellent improvement from a strong 92 showing at Pontefract when she won against the run of race after a less than ideal start from a wider than ideal draw, coming from well off the pace.

The filly is progressing all the time this year despite her relative experience with 14 career runs under the belt. She won three times this season and did so on soft ground as well.

Her draw looks ideal, she probably will be forward enough with headgear fitted for the first time, and if she tracks Swingalong, she may get a nice lead into the finish.

Swingalong herself has ran 97 speed figures back-to-back now, and may not have reached her peak yet. She has form on soft and possesses possibly a bit of extra stamina that could be key for her to stay in front in the closing stages. She has to improve again, though, that’s clear also.

This is incredibly competitive, though. Things have to go right from start to finish for both these fillies to outrun their price tag. However, if things fall right, these two fillies clearly have the ability to finish a lot closer than 30/1+ odds suggest.

5pts win – Swingalong @ 35/1
5pts win – Believing @ 31/1

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3.05 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1m

What a brilliant field. A true race of champions. But does the ground change the trajectory of the race? I definitely think so. This is going to be a fast race, on soft ground. It’ll take solid cruising speed and stamina to win.

I have worries that this isn’t the right test for brilliant Tahira to bring the best out of her, as mouth watering a clash with Paddington is on paper.

Paddington is the one to beat. He’s a superb miler and possibly an even better horse over ten furlongs. He ran two 110+ speed ratings this season and has won on any ground. This mile test with cut in the ground could be an ideal test.

On the other hand, his very best form came on better ground. He also had a lot of racing and didn’t fire at York when last seen. AOB is the master to get his stars back on track, so you would think Paddington comes here in the form of his life.

Nonetheless, given the price is short enough, I think one can be bold and take this superstar colt on.

Nashwaa over a mile is one to consider. She ran 100 and 106 speed ratings the last two times over 10 furlongs. However, again the ground is a slight question mark, as her best comes on better going as well. Still, this testing mile should suit.

Chaldean over a mile on softish ground at Ascot could be a perfect match. He looks a touch overpriced.

However, clearly the one who seems the forgotten horse in this field is Big Rock. Perhaps, some take a too negative view on his last two runs when beaten favourite.

In my view, this test will suit him tremendously well. The ground, the track and the fact he may not even need to make all but rather follow the pace closely, which should be hot enough – and if not he simply moves forward – looks perfect.

Prominent horses should be favoured here and once he hits the front he may be difficult to pass.

It’s true, though, he’s got to bounce back from a somewhat unconvincing 2nd place in the Prix du Moulin. He wasn’t the sharpest away, and possibly did too much in the early stages of the race.

If one is prepared to forgive him that below-par performance – still a runner-up performance in Group 1 company – then he’s right up there with the best in this field.

His second behind Inspiral in the Jacques le Marois is seriously strong form. The filly came from off the pace to overhaul him late. He achieved a superb 108 speed rating that day, nonetheless.

In hindsight, given what Ace Impact did since then, Big Rock’s runner-up performance in the French Derby looks even better than it did on the day itself.

He did a lot in front, and was only beaten in the closing staged by the subsequent Arc winner, who was ridden with much more restraint.

Overall, Big Rock has been a consistently top-class performer this year. I believe this track, trip and ground can bring the best out of him.

10pts win – Big Rock @ 8/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 20th October 2023

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If Redcar makes it as far the third race on their card today, then I’d be really keen on High Opinion to outrun his price tag.

The gelding was fancied all season but hasn’t quite delivered the goods. He caught the eye on a number of occasions, though, striking me as somewhat unfortunate to remain on a single career-win.

Clearly, judged on speed ratings he must be given a more than fair chance to change the current state today: now down to a 57 handicap mark, with the assistance of solid 3lb claiming Andrew Breslin in the saddle.

He ran 54+ speed ratings four times this year, and arguably his best performance at Ripon (56) came in a hot race where he was desperately unlucky not get a good deal closer – if only for a clear run.

The subsequent performances were a good deal better than they may appear on paper. High Opinion confirmed his wellbeing and was possibly just looking for a bit of help from the handicapper, a slightly easier race and a flat straight five with cut in the ground.

The 4-year-old is 1/14 throughout his career, hence one who often finds trouble. Today could be an ideal opportunity, though. His career-best runs came over 5 furlongs and deep ground.

He’s right drawn beside the likely pace, so in an ideal world, unless he badly misses the start, should get a nice lead into the final part of the race.

A possible negative is if they don’t go a solid gallop. High Opinion has tendencies to pull and a possible pace scenario leaves space for a somewhat slowly run race.

I highly rate the dangers of Northcliff, who despite his 0/19 record could have a class edge here, as well as Rajmeister who enjoys these conditions and won off the same mark earlier this year.

If High Opinion would be the one of the shorter prices he was in most his runs this season I’d probably give it a miss today. He’s not a winner, finds trouble, and may end up pulling his chances away. However, he’s simply a superb price, that compensates more than enough for those negatives, because he’s clearly handicapped to win, if all goes well.

10pts win – High Opinion @ 10/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #1

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Winter is coming. With that in mind I’m starting a new list of All-Weather eyecatchers for this new winter season.

All-Weather Eyecatchers is a fortnightly updated list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the sand. Find all previous eyecatchers always here.

……..

Jimmy Mark
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Held up in last until he made excellent progress from 4f out. Turned very wide and plenty to do. Not the clearest of runs in the home straight, yet finished much the best.


Clearly still improving after cosy Bath success lto. Outstayed his pedigree so far. Racing style not ideal for AW but a smaller field not contested at a rapid clip over 10f should be fine as he possesses cruising speed and a change of gear likely superior for this grade.

Would be intriguing if he drops in trip as well to a mile as he possesses the speed.

Race Replay

Streetstorm
05/10/23 – 5.15 Lingfield:

Bit keen in the early parts of the race. Restrained in midfield. Travelled strongly to the 2f marker and made strong move around the home bend. Maybe didn’t quite get home in the final furlong.

Still a maiden, however, ran to 60 speed rating over 1m on the AW earlier the year. A drop to a mile or the 8.5f at Wolverhampton could bring out more improvement off a potentially lenient mark. Recent turf run can be ignored.

Race Replay

After John
06/10/23 – 4.02 Newcastle:

Travelled strongly in rear. Made excellent progress on sectionals and visually from 4f out all the way to inside 2f from home. Had a lot to do, though. Ran out off steam eventually.

Clear return to form. Down to dangerous mark. 6f Newcastle obviously interesting next time, as long as there is a solid pace to chance. Otherwise may be worth wait for additional help from the handicapper.

Race Replay

Astral Beat
06/10/23 – 5.00 Dundalk:

Ducked left at the start, quickly recovered and moved forward. Soon grabbed the lead and was quick through the first three furlongs going well before falling away from 1.5f out.

Usually a quick starter. Big prices ever since moving to Ireland. Slowly comes down to intriguing mark. Ran to 55+ speed ratings three times last year on the All-Weather. May have a few more runs before fully in the picture for win purposes. Watch the betting.

Race Replay

Sao Timothy
07/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Keen early on, hampered soon after the start and even further lit up as a consequence. Made strong progress from 3f out to be in a challenging position over 1f out. Couldn’t sustain effort but showed good attitude all the way to the line.

Big price, and only second start in handicap company. Should stay the trip on pedigree but may benefit from a drop to a mile or 8.5f. Unexposed, and could be better than this lowly mark.

Race Replay

The Defiant
09/10/23 – 7.30 Wolverhampton:

Quick start from widest draw. Chased leader, before taking up the lead entering the home straight. Awkward over 1f out before getting tired and swamped. Strong run at big price.

Seems to hit form again and 1lb below last winning mark. Has turf entry next but worth to wait for 5f AW, especially with any additional help from the handicapper and in a race he could dominate.

Race Replay

Guiteau
09/10/23 – 8.00 Wolverhampton:

Solid start, travelled well enough throughout. However, held up around the home bend as trapped on the inside when the crucial moves where made in front of him. Made strong progress once in the clear and still finished best over the last three furlongs.

Only 3rd AW run. Scope for improvement. Should be able to step up to a mile as well. Clearly capable off 58 and possibly a win or two better, as he also ran to 57 speed rating here in less than ideal circumstances.

Race Replay

Taritino
11/10/23 – 7.00 Kempton:

Quickly moved forward on the outside of the early leaders. Grabbed the lead and fastest through four of first five furlongs, keen as well in first-time blinkers.

No surprise to see him tire badly. 7f looks ideal. Showed some good form over the trip in the past. Unexposed on the All-Weather. Down to intriguing mark when trip and headgear are more suitable.

Race Replay

Nogo’s Dream
11/10/23 – 8.00 Kempton:

Good start, but lit up my moving horse in front of him just before the bend that saw him fall back into tendencies to hang badly. Gave a lot of ground away and needed time to find his feed. Ran home strongly from 2f out, fasted through the final furlong.

Huge ran prior at Wolverhampton from the front as well from wide draw. Obviously a frustrating sort. Not genuine. But also clearly better than OR 74 if he can get his act together. Ideally has an inside draw to get cover on the sides.

Drop to 5f also interesting on a straight, perhaps even with application of headgear once more.

Race Replay

Garrick Painter
13/010/23 – 5.45 Dundalk:

Not the sharpest away and pushed forward, but soon pulled through on the inside to grab the led thanks to the low draw. In front until 2f before getting badly tired. First run for new yard off a small break.

Still lightly enough raced. Ran to 72 and 79 speed ratings last year. Will come down to intriguing mark over 7f or maybe even more so a mile especially when he gets a good draw once again.

Race Replay

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 1st November 2022

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It’s a new day, it’s a new dawn…. I am very, very happy this morning. Gold Trip landed the Melbourne Cup, giving me a much needed 21/1 winner!

This was the best possible start to November, after the most horrible number of weeks in the last while on the punting front.

It couldn’t have gone much smoother for the top-weight: a relaxed start, he settled well, and then brilliantly maneuvered through the field by jockey Mark Zahra, to be in the perfect position entering the home straight.

Gold Trip quickened nicely, and stayed on strongly all the way to the line. I mentioned beforehand that he’s the class horse in my view – and so it proved. Thankfully, once in a while things do work out the way envisioned.

At least it did for Gold Trip. Stockman ran a huge race to finish 8th, after encountering plenty of trouble around the home turn. He was never given a real chance to challenge.

No complaints, though. It doesn’t happen often that I back a winner these days, let alone a 20/1+ winner. A much needed booster for the P/L sheet.

https://youtu.be/oiiiKEeY390

…………

5.00 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Captain Vallo drops down to class 6 with another 2lb off his back. He is seriously well handicapped if anywhere near the form he showed on turf this season when he got his conditions.

I look back especially to his Redcar run three back, where he nearly got his head in front off 68. He ran to speed ratings in the 60’s a number of times this year, including to 68 and 69.

I don’t think he’s a lesser horse on the All-Weather. In fact, his record is 6-1-2 and his career best speed rating was achieved at Newcastle.

The jockey booking and form of the yard isn’t a confidence booster, but I hope he’s on a going day and can take advantage of running in poor contest that’s there for the taking off 7lb lower than his last winning mark.

A lot of money has been coming for him this morning too. I missed the big prices. But he’s still good value if there’s no handbrake on.

10pts win – Captain Vallo @ 7/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 31st October 2022

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7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 9.5f

This is a shocking contest in terms of quality. This fact opens the door for a little surprise, I feel, or perhaps hope, more than anything.

No doubt, the filly Queen Of Ipanema should have a good chance to win back to back under a penalty, given she ran to a strong speed rating the last time.

However, I have the feeling she is vulnerable, certainly too short in the betting. Personally I never like a to see a 3-year-old filly shooting up in the weight so suddenly from 9.0st to 9-12, especially if a strong winning performance came off the low weight.

There are only one or two other solid rivals in the field, though, hence I can see why she is as short as 6/5 this morning. Any repeat of the last run will see her hard to beat.

In saying that the one that looks overpriced here is Rumourmonger. The 3-year-old filly runs off bottom weight and remains open to improvement, especially with the new headgear combination working well last time out.

One has to note, though: the filly can be quite a tricky customer. She messed up at the start a number of times in the past, as she did two back at Chelmsford. She still ran better in my eyes there and then, given the circumstances. This tiny step in the right direction was followed up by quite a significant step in the right direction the next time.

Rumourmonger stepped up to 10 furlongs, a combination of hood and blinkers applied, she jumped better, attempted to make all, was a bit keen early in, was joined by the eventual winner to set the pace, and was bang up there for an awful long time.

She was eventually passed in the home straight, yet I like the fact she kept going pretty well to the line. No question this filly can win a race if she can get her act together on the day.

This most recent race worked out incredibly well form wise (11r: 3w, 5p). Hence it’s intriguing that Rumourmonger drops from that recent 0-62 down to 0-55 level.

The slight drop in trip today can also be in her favour. She probably doesn’t quite get 10 furlongs. No hot pace is expected, so from a good #4 draw Theodor Ladd should have every option to move forward and settle this girl.

Obviously, you can’t be anything more than hopeful that she runs her race. It may well be over if he rears in the gates again. She may drop out tamely. But I also think she showed enough the last time to suggest she can win off this lowest of handicap marks, and on the plus side we can be certain she will be allowed to run on merit.

10pts win – Rumourmonger @ 25/1