Tag Archives: Handicap

Tuesday Selections – 29th August 2017

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Ended last week with a bang – Teodoro made all to win easily at Yarmouth despite drifting out to 8/1. So broke even for the week in the end. Not a bad result given how badly it started.

Can things look brighter this week? Granted today is my birthday, here’s hoping for a big winner!

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4.30 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

Monticello struggled the last two times, however a drop in class may help. He also tackles older horses with WFA allowance still an advantage I feel.

He’s won only twice in his career, over 7f, though showed strong performances over 10f in hot class Handicaps earlier this year. The drying ground should help too.

Sire Teofilo does extremely well at this track and trip, and the usually prominent racing style of Monticello can often be a bonus at Ripon.

Selection:
10pts win – Monticello @ 14/1 Skybet

Saturday Selections – Ebor Day 2017

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Still searching for the elusive first winner of the week. Another rather disappointing run from my selection Galactic at Salisbury yesterday. Let’s not dwell on it. Huge day today. Ebor day!

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2.25 York: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f

Irish St. Leger winner Jukebox Jury has an outstanding record with his first three year old’s in Britain. Contributing towards this has been the Mark Johnston trained Dominating, who ha won already three times this year.

In fact in his last five starts Dominating has either won or finished second. The handicapper starts to catch up and going up significantly in class doesn’t make things easier.

Still, at a big price and off a very low weight, with conditions likely to suit, he can run a big race and cause an upset I feel.

Selection: 
10pts win – Dominating @ 33/1 Paddy Power

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3.35 York: Class 2 Ebor Handicap, 1m 6f 

Normally it is not my style punting the favourite in a big Handicap as the Ebor undoubtedly is, however there is so much to like about Flymetothestars that I can’t ignore the facts and feel despite being plenty short enough for a race like this there is still juice in the price.

Why? Well, you can try and read what you want into his form this season, whether a third in the Northumberland Plate was a slight disappointment or not, but fact is this lad is the least exposed in the field, who tackles turf for the first time from the lower end of the weight scale.

There is very chance for further improvement to come. He is a well bred son of Sea The Stars, so ground and trip aren’t an issue at all and his older sons are progressing.

The draw is an issue so is the fact Flymetothestars can be very keen early on. Also does missing the kick become a habit? Nonetheless if the stars fall right then he is very hard to beat indeed.

Selection:
10pts win – Flymetothestars @ 8/1 Bet365

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3.50 Newmarket: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f

The three year old Hochfeld has a prime chance here returning to the most suitable 1m 6f trip. His runner-up performance behind Tor at Hamilton is a very strong piece of form. A return to that will see him hard to beat here.

He is still progressing after a busy juvenile campaign won twice at the beginning of the year and followed up with the strong mentioned performance at Hamilton. A slightly disappointing run at Goodwood the last time, though conditions may have been against him.

Selection:
10pts win – Hochfeld @ 4/1 Bet365

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4.15 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 7.5f 

This today is arguably the toughest test of his long career, yet Echo Of Lightning appears still improving at the grand age of 7 as he has won already three times this year and has been impressively consistent over the last 12 months.

He has to defy a career highest mark and an impressive display at Pontefract earlier this month, though he might have been helped by the rain and small field.

Nonetheless the numbers tell he improved in each of his last five runs and with a decent draw, a bit of cut in the ground and a sort of specialist trip at a specialist track, he can run big I feel.

Selection:
10pts win – Echo Of Lightning @ 15/2 Skybet

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7.55 Redcar: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

At 16’s I’m happy to take a punt on Majestic Stone who lost his race at the start when seen last and has to bounce back from that. He’s never been the best starter, so that is an obvious concern, however the return to quick ground is a big plus.

His best performance to date came on good to firm at Thirsk in April. He was unlucky the day and the form has been franked. Up four pounce from there he has confirmed he is up to that sort of mark the next time, however with cut in the ground.

Slight change of gear today, better ground and hopefully a better start may him see go close at a big price.

Selection:
10pts win – Majestic Stone @ 16/1 Bet365

Thursday Selections: 24th August 2017

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Not often you see a horse strongly travelling, in fact cantering all over his rivals until nearly the final furlong marker in a premier Group 1 race. If it happens it must rate as a special performance. So it was. Take a bow Ulysses. That was spectacular!

I made him the favourite in my book, however felt the rain might count slightly against him. How wrong I was. I was also wrong doubting Churchill’s staying ability. How dare I doubt a son of Galileo?! He wasn’t quite good enough in the end, but confirmed that he is all class.

But sometimes you bump into a better one. This one was Ulysses today. Another late bloomer so speak in the care of brilliant Sir Michael.

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3.00 York: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Big Baz is a big prize and hasn’t shown too much this season to warrant a awful lot of respect. Still, it would be foolish to rule him out completely in a race that takes a bit of luck to win anyways.

What will the ground be like? There is no further rain expected, or at least not a lot, temperatures are balmy, so it might be good to soft, good in places by race time I reckon. That’s fair enough. Big Baz has form on softish ground but also on quicker surfaces, so that side of the equation won’t be an issue I think. Trip suits fine, no problem.

His Newbury Cup performance off 7lb higher back in April gives him a shot at this with the ease in the mark surely a help. The draw isn’t ideal, though, and Big Baz is not a confident selection, but is a value price in my book, nonetheless.

Selection:
10pts win – Big Baz @ 66/1 Paddy Power

Tuesday Selections: 22nd August 2017

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Wasn’t to be on Monday. Sacred Way ran a big race for a big price as hoped, just he couldn’t peg back the front-running winner and finished 2nd.. Perfect Symphony was way too keen early to land a blow when it mattered, unfortunately.

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5.10 Yarmouth: Class 6 Maiden Handicap, 1m 4f

Mark Prescott seems to have found yet again a superb opportunity for one of his lesser lights. Alternate Route is likely a very ordinary individual, though surely better than what we saw in three maiden runs on the All-Weather.

Handicapping was always the target with him and now stepping up to suitable 12 furlongs he could easily exploit his feather weight in a race against other winless individuals.

His sire New Approach has a sensational record at the Yarmouth venue, the fast ground should help on Handicap debut over the new trip, and a good draw is an added bonus.

Selection:
10pts win – Alternate Route @ 9/2 Skybet

Wednesday Selections – 16/08/2017

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Two on the bounce – Incentive took the 2.15 at Ffos Las in excellent style today (advised 12/1, R4 applies). The filly took – as hoped – full advantage of a career lowest mark with conditions to suit.

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3.20 Salisbury: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Kryptos has improved with each start since switching yards, running really well on debut for John Barry returning from a long break at Newmarket. On the day beaten in third only by individuals rated 91 and 100 now.

Race fit he went to Chester and finished from a near impossible position super strongly to win on handicap debut. Form and ratings suggest he could easily follow up off his revised mark. Conditions pose no trouble, only the draw is a slight concern.

Selection:
10pts win – Kryptos @ 6/1 Bet365

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5.15 Beverley: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Rarely you see horses winning four on the bounce, even less so completing a five-timer! Regal Mirage, though, has excellent credentials to achieve the feast.

Massively improved with experience and going handicapping, the three year old has matched or exceeded his handicap mark both for time speed- and RP rating the last two times, suggesting he continues to improve and may have still more to offer.

Conditions and trip cause no trouble and his prominent and hard hitting racing style should be perfect for a track like Beverley. Only one other 3yo in the field – I believe there is one more win in this lad.

Selection: 
10pts win – Regal Mirage @ 5/2 Bet365

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8.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

The Fanshawe yard usually goes really well in these type of races during the summer and has a fantastic chance with handicap debutante Scoones to score.

The 3yo had three obligatory maiden runs without setting the world alight however has been gelded after the first two runs and subsequently travelled like the winner coming off a break at Chelmsford lto just to fade away late without being ridden too hard.

An opening mark of 65 looks potentially lenient given he matched this in terms of RPR in his last run and his sire has a super record on the All-Weather plus the mare is prolific in producing successful offspring.

Selection:
10pts win – Scoones @ 5/1 Skybet

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8.45 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

SP’s in the three maiden runs Wolfcatcherjack had this year are a clear indicator his future would be going handicapping. This moment has arrived and at the same time he steps up dramatically in trip for a trainer who is the master of exploiting the handicapping system.

Wolfcatcherjack is pretty well bred, hailing from a fine family and it is rather likely that he will easily leave his maiden form behind quickly. His opening mark looks stiff enough for what he has achieved so far but taking everything into calculation it may well be a gift.

Selection:
10pts win – Wolfcatcherjack @ 11/4 Paddy Power

A Sunday filly for Ripon

Beaten in the dying strides – life as a horse racing punter can be an agonising affair. Cloud Computing got the better of Classic Empire in the Preakness Stakes. The fresher horse, with the better, less aggressive and more economical ride, won in the end.

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4.10 Ripon: Class 3 Fillies’ Handicap, 6 Furlongs

Open enough looking contest and I take a chance on bottom weight Savannah Slew. Other three year old’s in the field are better fancied and this filly has questions to answer given that she already had eight career runs, is a bit temperamental and wasn’t convincing on her seasonal reappearance.

However she should strip fitter now and will enjoy the return to six furlongs, a trip she won two starts back. Ground wise it won’t be a big deal if any cut is left as her two victories came on softish ground although on pedigree better ground is what should be her optimum.

A mark off 78 is stiff enough and she will need to improve, though juvenile form gives her every chance given she already ran to an RPR of 81 and should be home in the conditions encountered here at Ripon.

Selection:
10pts win – Savannah Slew @ 10/1 Bet365

Saturday Tips

4.40 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

I was quite keen on Favourite Royal ten days ago at Wolverhampton but felt she might need the run, so didn’t back her then. Her fast finishing runner-up performance was incredibly eye-catching that day, though, indicating this filly has wintered well and is well able to win a race of her current mark.

She was a very green and raw filly as a juvenile, with a bit of learning and filling of her frame to do. Now as a three year old you would hope that she can still improve a bit and I feel the 2lb added to her rating on the back of the last run might not stop her in a race that should suit.

The bounce factor is a question mark but given she has not a lot of running under her belt yet, this lightly raced filly seems likely to be well handicapped.

Selection:
10pts win – Favourite Royal @ 11/2 PP

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6.50 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 9.5f

Drago seemingly enjoys this track and the unique trip given he has quite a good record around Wolverhampton. He looks improved since fitted with a hood: his last four performances when wearing it were all very decent enough, and he’s only 3lb higher than when winning over course and distance back in November last year.

He already has a run under his belt this season; arguably a pipe opener in a seller. I feel there is a genuine chance that he can still improve a bit over this CD and having a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle should be an advantage.

Selection:
10pts win – Drago @ 9/1 Bet365

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7.05 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Top weight Mr Davies seems to have a tough task assigned on his handicap debut with 9st 9lb to carry, however this completely unexposed gelding could be on a lenient opening mark either.

He got two runs in quick succession as a juvenile, was then put away and reappeared four weeks ago four weeks ago here at Doncaster over 10.5f in a maiden. From the widest draw he pushed forward, travelled well throughout but was entitled to get tired in the final furlong.

Despite never finishing in the money in three maiden runs his RPR suggest those performances are close to in line with his opening mark. It is reasonable to imagine that this big, scopey gelding can improve for his pipe opener and the step up to 12f for the first time.

Selection:
10pts win – Mr Davies @ 11/2 PP

Race of the Day

After a an excellent Good Friday and overall immensely satisfying week on the betting front I’ll throw my hat into the ring for one final roll of the dice before existing the week for a quiet, peaceful and stress-free weekend!

The race of the day comes from the Scottish Musselburgh today – the Class 2 Royal Mile Handicap for three year old’s sees the return of some promising individuals. Though the nature of this type of race at this early stage of the flat season also means it tends to be quite an open race.

Nonetheless it is no surprise to see a William Haggas trained inmate at the top of the charts. His Sir Prancelot gelding Novoman has been incredibly consistent as a juvenile.He’s  been out of the money only once in six starts last year.

He steps up to the one mile trip for the first time and that could edge out further improvement, which is needed, though, because judged on his juvenile form you can easily argue that he is not overly well handicapped.

Personally I’m not sure if Novoman really wants this trip and at odds around 7/2 he appears to be not a particularly good bet.

Hugo Palmer saddles speedy Mazyoun. Already Listed placed, he also ran twice to a RPR of 91, so if he can stay this 1 mile trip plus has improved over the winter then he could well be ahead of his current handicap mark.

A whole armada goes to post for Richard Fahey. He has four in the race, with the four-timer seeking Rashford’s Double the most likely winner. He is already a distance winner and has potential to be even better than what he showed last year given Zoffany offspring tends to age well.

The ground is a slight worry for me as  he already stayed beyond a mile as a juvenile and might find quick ground not necessarily playing to his strengths.

Top weight Mailshot has a big assignment of mark off 99 and is certainly exposed enough compared to others, however one the other hand he’s ever improving, won last month a fine Handicap at Chelmsford and is sure to run well today.

Rusumaat hails from the same yard as Mailshot does, providing Mark Johnston with a strong hand in the race. This lad is a busy campaigner who has already eight runs under his belt, but it is fair to say he went from strengths to strengths last season.

His final appearance in a big sales race at Doncaster can be forgiven as he reared at the start and made too much too soon subsequently. The trip is the worry today, yet not totally beyond him. He’s certainly fast, however breeding gives him a chance and he will love the fast ground.

That brings me to the one I feel could be well handicapped: It’s one Fahey’s four: Society Red – a mark of 80 could well be underestimate what he can do as a three year old. It’s only 2lb higher than when finishing a strong runner-up in his final race and handicap debut last season.

That day the leader eventually pulled out more in a slowly run race and Society Rock was clearly not favoured by the pace. However he was only beaten by a neck eventually behind a then 92 rated individual who also franked the form in the meantime.

This son of Arcano could easily improve as a three year old and despite not fully tested over the slowly run mile in his final race last year, given his dam is a winner of a listed race over this trip in soft ground , he is likely to see out the trip strongly.

From a good draw, with conditions likely to suit, I feel he’s overpriced in a race that has questions marks over all of the twelve individuals going to post at 3pm this afternoon.

Selection:
10pts win – Society Red @ 12/1 Bet365

Preview: Lincoln Handicap

Leicester Racecourse home straight

One week after the Irish flat season kicked off with a bang, it’s now time for the neighbours across the pond to open the gates to their traditional Lincoln meeting held at Doncaster. So let’s have a look at the main event of the day:

Classy Yuften greets from the top of the betting market. A relatively short priced favourite at around 10/3 with most firms. A case can be made easily why he is well fancied.

Yuften made a fine return to the race track last month in a Listed event at Wolverhampton finishing a narrowly beaten third. He clearly is in good nick and looks ripped to follow on from where left off in 2016 when he landed the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on British Champions Day.

An only four pounds higher handicap mark today with conditions sure to suit – he’s a huge chance. BUT this is the Lincoln! A race that cause often upsets. In fact 7 of the last 10 winners started at double figure odds!

That must bring second favourite Donncha into play. A 10/1 chance at the moment – that illustrates fittingly how open this race is, if the second! favourite is a double figure price. The six year old horse is an ultra-consistent sort and was an excellent runner-up in the Spring Mile last year. Jamie Spencer in the saddle indicates another big run is on the cards.

The improving On This Is Us for the Richard Hannon team with Ryan Moore taking the ride is back in the UK after a stint at Meydan over the winter months where he performed not too badly. He can go well.

However the two Fahey runners are the ones that do intrigue me most personally:

There is Third Time Lucky  – one who looks sure to relish this test. He performs well in big-field handicaps and won’t mind whatever juice is left in the ground. He’s also race fit and in form, as recent results on the All-Weather prove.

Due to a recent win he has to carry a penalty but this is pretty much cancelled out due to the 7lb claimer in the saddle. Young Connor Murtagh looks quite useful, indeed. I do really like his calm riding style which should be of benefit  in the Lincoln.

The younger and less exposed Dolphin Vista receives the assistance of Paul Hanagan and runs of near bottom weight. There might still be a bit improvement left in this son of Zoffany and I’m sure he’s ready to run a big race after on his seasonal reappearance.

He stays further and has a career highest mark to overcome but this is only his ninth handicap start, now as a four year old, if he can return to the form of his penultimate run when a winner of a 10f handicap at Beverly, he’s a big chance I firmly belief, given he’ll most likely will be ridden positively close to the leas so he can make his stamina count.

From the bigger prices I think you can make a good case for You’re Fired (40/1) to be competitive. He often runs well in these type of races and has fitness on his side.

Selection:
5pts win – Third Time Lucky @ 16/1 Unibet
5pts win – Dolphin Vista @ 14/1 Bet365

Featherweight Seattle Swing Worth a Punt

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1.35 Fairview: MR 84 Handicap, 2000m

Muzi Yeni has a sensational record riding for du Plessis, so Oh So Modus must rate a massive chance. The four year old already is a course and distance winner too and proved himself to be in fine form lately.

You don’t have to look far for dangers though. Another four year old gelding, the Justin Snaith trained Galao has been running extremely well, having been placed or won in all his last four starts.

The eight year old veteran Money Grubber is probably in the grip of the handicapper at the moment, however can’t be taken lightly as this is his trip.

However I take a chance with the only three year old in the race, Seattle Swing. Still rather lightly raced, he may be able to improve for what he has shown so far. He won over 1600m on yielding ground last season, followed later by an impressive success here on the polytrack over 2.200m. Off only 52kg I see a chance of him being extremely well in, though only if he can take another step forward  given this is a tougher race than those he contested in before.

Seattle Swing @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win