Tag Archives: Fairview

Featherweight Seattle Swing Worth a Punt

polytrack

1.35 Fairview: MR 84 Handicap, 2000m

Muzi Yeni has a sensational record riding for du Plessis, so Oh So Modus must rate a massive chance. The four year old already is a course and distance winner too and proved himself to be in fine form lately.

You don’t have to look far for dangers though. Another four year old gelding, the Justin Snaith trained Galao has been running extremely well, having been placed or won in all his last four starts.

The eight year old veteran Money Grubber is probably in the grip of the handicapper at the moment, however can’t be taken lightly as this is his trip.

However I take a chance with the only three year old in the race, Seattle Swing. Still rather lightly raced, he may be able to improve for what he has shown so far. He won over 1600m on yielding ground last season, followed later by an impressive success here on the polytrack over 2.200m. Off only 52kg I see a chance of him being extremely well in, though only if he can take another step forward  given this is a tougher race than those he contested in before.

Seattle Swing @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Fairview: Top Weight is Value

turffontein

11.50 Fairview: Pinnacle Stakes, 1000m

An open looking contest where class horse Copper Parade is a fair measure stick given he was placed in a Grade 2 lately. He is two from four starts over this course and distance, so is very well respected and sure to run a big race.

Late bloomer Blizzard Belle seems to be the main danger. Bidding for a four-timer today, the five year old has excelled over the minimum trip in recent weeks achieving a career best in December when landing a MR86 Handicap off top weight.

The three year old Oriental Tiger is an intriguing contender. Lightly raced and showing some potential, he could have still more to offer. He’s coming as a fresh horse into the race, is badly out off the weights, but probably hasn’t shown his true form yet. With Domeyer up he’s got to be respected.

Cauclair is a great little money spinner and can be competitive after winning his latest race two weeks ago, though the drop to the minimum trip is not ideal and he might be beaten for speed by quicker sorts at this downhill sprint track.

The highest rated horse in the field is The West Is Wide. He might be slightly flattered by his current rating off 106 as he was disappointing in his last three starts. However he loves this trip and is a course winner as well. He’s well weighted to go close if he can find back something of his best. Dropping down to 1.000m can only be a help and Agrella booked for the ride is a big bonus.

Summary: It’s fair to say that Copper Parade is the horse to beat after his runner-up effort in Grade 2 company. His win record isn’t the best lately though. He’s a fair price in a competitive little affair but the value lies with the top rated The West Is Wide. If rejuvenated by the return to this track and trip he could easily outrun his price tag.

The West Is Wide @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win

East Cape Sprint stepping stone for Copper Parade

Copper Parade is a proper Grade 1 horse running at Listed level today. There are reasons for that, as he can be bit temperamental in times and hasn’t been seen since January. Bigger targets are on the mind of connections with the big Grade 1 sprints looming. He is the top rated sprinter in the country due to his success in the Premier G1 Computaform Sprint last year and a subsequent runner-up effort in the G1 Mercury Sprint.

He’s been a bit up and down in the next three, but dropping big time in class today, he is clearly the one the others have to beat. That says he is a slightly better horse over 1.000m but has won over further in the past, so 1.200m should be okay and class should prevail. On official ratings he is well in today.

Main opponent should be the only filly in the race, Yoshie. A multiple winner of sprint races at listed level, she is well in the weights compared with most rivals and should run a very big race. However she has loads to find on the ratings with Copper Parade. In-form horse Unannounced won four on the bounce and should be competitive, but as most in this field, has mainly been running in handicaps.

If things go normal, Copper Parade can’t get beaten here. A 115 rated individual against 100 rated horses and lower. This discrepancy is not offset by weight allowances at all, so if he runs to his ability, it should be game over at 200m post.

2.10 Fairview: East Cape Sprint Cup (Listed)
Copper Parade @ 5/4 Sportingbet – 10pts win