Tag Archives: Handicap

Opinion

The Curragh “failing to woo the punters”

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Groundhog Day: low attendance & poor racegoer experience – the Curragh is in the news for all the wrong reasons yet again.

Irish flat racing HQ staged the 3-day “Irish Guineas Festival” last weekend. A superb package of top-class racing, that included the first Classic races of the new season, as well as an additional five Group races.

Tickets were comparably cheap (€20 early bid), especially compared to other top-class sporting events (or admission to many UK racecourses). And yet, very few turned up to watch Lake Victoria romping home in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday, or a day earlier Field Of Gold getting his stylish redemption in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

No doubt, the shocking weather didn’t help to entice punters to go racing and brave the elements – a tragedy, because the racing was superb. But who can blame those who stayed home: the Curragh isn’t a great place to be at when the weather doesn’t play its part. That’s one of the disappointing facts about this shiny new facility that cost upward of €70 million to redevelop.

However, even in previous years, when the weather gods provided somewhat kinder conditions, attendance figures on Guineas weekend (3 days) didn’t make for pretty reading: 14.088 (2024), 14.773 (2023) and 12.700 (2022). Neither 2000 Guineas Saturday- or 1000 Guineas Sunday broke the 6.000 mark during this period.

This isn’t a once-off phenomenon – it’s a new normal for racing at the Curragh. Attendance for the Derby is anywhere between 10-13k these days, a dramatic decline from 2015, the final Derby run at the Curragh before the redevelopment, that saw a whopping 25.225 huddling around the parade ring to get a glimpse of Jack Hobbs.

Surely, nobody wants to try and rewrite history in an attempt to romanticise the old Curragh. It was a kip when it got finally demolished; walls could tell stories of yesteryear, electric cables dangling dangerously loose in the wind above the heads of racegoers, and the cramming inside the betting hall around the small TVs put those with claustrophobia in a state of paralysis.

Nonetheless, I used to be a member at the old Curragh and I loved the old, shabby place. The available space was rather well utilised to the most part, there was a logic flow through the track for the racegoer and even though the parade ring was a lot smaller than the new one, you still saw the horses!

Perhaps I am romanticising the old Curragh?!

The annual membership was affordable and provided dedicated parking, quick access to the track, a charming members bar overlooking the finish line, a designated members area to watch the racing with the best view across the track, and the occasional side offerings like trips to Coolmore Stud.

Back then the membership was about €180 and seriously good value, even if you couldn’t go every time they raced. In 2025 the membership fee stands at a whopping €350 (mind, when they reponed it was ‘only’ €265…. call that inflation?!).

Granted, that’s still not bad value if you go to all the 24 days. But who does that? Very few. It’s a steep price. In the past it was decent value even if you only went 10-12 times a year, plus the added perks made it worthwhile. Not so much these days.

Anecdotally (I would love to see official figures) the Curragh lost members during the rebuild (when they offered temporary facilities but charged full price, nonetheless) and certainly in subsequent years, due to the significant price hike.

The sad reality is, members or not, ever since the reopening of the redeveloped Curragh, people have voted with their feet and stayed largely away. The drop in attendance for marquee race days, as highlighted earlier, is nothing less than dramatic.

That’s strange, because logic would dictate that a new, modern facility would encourage more and not less people to attend fixtures.

While the official attendance figures for last weekend haven’t been released yet, it’s hard to believe they’ll be any better than the aforementioned figures in 2023 or 2024.

I was there and it didn’t feel a busy on Saturday. It’s certainly eye-opening when AK Bets outlines in their excellent The Racing Room Podcast that they took merely 95 and 55 on the two Classic days. On the lesser days, the place is basically deserted.

The question is: why? Why do people vote with their feet? It can’t be the price point: admission is incredibly affordable, even for the best days of racing at the Curragh – I want to highlight that as a clear positive (while I remain critical of the pricing for the membership) – the early bird offerings are superb value for money. €20 for the 2000 Guineas, €25 for the Irish Derby, for example.

The place hasn’t moved. It’s where its always been. Getting to it is possibly by public transport via bus or train and subsequent shuttle busses, albeit not as plain a sailing as it could be – I did that many years while living in Dublin. Car parking is free onsite. Food and drink, while not cheap, is competitively priced in comparison to rugby, football or GAA.

Why then the dramatic drop-off in attendance? From my personal experience the often cited pain points with the new Curragh mirror the ones I see as well:

  • Poor design and use of the space available – some key areas feel overcrowded even if overall attendance is low.
  • Parade ring isn’t a great place for viewing the horses ((despite having been redone!).
  • Main hall inside the stand gives the vibe of a train station or airport arrival hall.
  • Not enough seating available inside.
  • The roof’s still whistling furiously in windy conditions.
  • Poor protection from the elements in the grandstand.

Some of these criticisms are possibly harsh and contradictory. Racing is an outdoor sport, you can expect to get wet if you want see the horses in the parade ring.

On the other hand, where money’s spend (especially tax-payers money) an expectation of excellence follows. And this expectation of excellence isn’t met at the new Curragh. Be it the roof, be it the facilities inside, be it the poorly designed parade ring.

It’s also hard to imagine that the place could pack more than 15.000. It would be total carnage, with multiple bottlenecks and poor crowd flow. Even with only 10.000 onsite, these issues persist when previously at the old site 20.000 could fit relatively comfortably.

I want to be fair and balanced, and give credit to recent attempts to improve the experience. New marquee tents, food vans, a SPAR inside, more tables and seats. Admission has been made more affordable. So, something is done. Yet, it’s not enough to make you want to spend half a day there. It remains a cold, windy and rather uncomfortable place. Smaller, older tracks around the country do it much better.

Perhaps, for plenty of people the habit of going racing at the Curragh got broken during the redevelopment phase as well. Some never got back into the habit. Some returned once or twice and didn’t enjoy the experience. They’ve never been back.

There’s also a considerable lack of visibility inside the Kildare community. I live in Naas. It’s a 15min drive down the M7 for me. I can’t recall having seen any marketing for the Guineas Festival. Unless you’re a racing fan, you probably wouldn’t have known there’s two of the most important races in the Irish flat racing calendar taking place over the weekend.

Personally, I can’t offer many solutions. Saying that, it’s not my job. I only speak as a racing fan and from my personal experience. And that experience hasn’t been great.

I feel the bird has flown, and the glory days will never return. Flat racing has never been that popular in Ireland. Nonetheless, there shouldn’t be an obvious reason why attendances at the Curragh have dropped so dramatically since the redevelopment, when plenty other sports are thriving in the post-covid era.

There shouldn’t be one obvious reason. Yet there are multiple obvious reasons for the decline. And they are self-inflicted. The blame lies firmly with the racecourse management. It seems, as populist as this may sound: the track has been build for those in the posh seats, with us peasants (aka the average racegoer) forgotten.

Betting

Monday Selections: 3rd February 2025

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It’s St Brigid’s Day, which marks the the beginning of spring, and I can certainly feel a spring in my step, knowing the days get longer, the sun is supposed to show itself more often from now on, and the flat season isn’t too far away, either.

It’s a low-key racing day in Ireland, where today is also a public holiday, as well as the usual stuff in the UK on a typical Monday during the winter months. But I’ve got some spare time on my hands and found two decent looking bets to try and make the day pay, nonetheless.

Looking 5km to the south from where I live, lies Punchestown. It’s not a card that gets me out of the door to get myself over there today, but the 4.10 Mares Handicap Hurdle appears to shape like an intriguing race.

In this race over 2m 7f it should pay dividends to be close to the pace, given more than half the field may not want to be to soon in front.

Slotty Dotty and Slim Marvel, currently first and second favourite in the betting, could be ideally placed, while No Fussing, who also features prominently in the market, could be left with a lot to do when it matters most.

Slotty Dotty, thanks to her recent course win, stares as the natural favourite. However, despite that commanding 7 lengths victory over 2m 6f, it was a poor race, and she has to define a 10lb hike in her mark also.

Slim Marvel in contrast drops into an easier race after a superb runner-up effort from out of the weights at Cork over todays trip, beaten behind a winner who was highly tried subsequently.

She won a maiden hurdle in July and was placed off 102 and 104 (107 effectively) and this is only her sixth handicap run, and the first time on this type of deep ground. She was placed in maiden hurdle on heavy going, though.

There could be improvement to come in these conditions over this trip, given ran well to the the line, jumped and travelled strongly, and was only beaten by a better quality of horse, that she is unlikely to meet today.

At about 5/1 on the exchanges I’ll take the punt that she gets home strongly today.

Over at Wolverhampton the lucky last 8.30 6f Handicap appeals from a pace point of view. Few want the lead here, which could add to the overall bias towards front-runners.

Nevernay is one who doesn’t mind to run from the front or race prominently, at the very least, and has ran his best races if allowed to stride on.

From the #6 draw he shouldn’t have too much trouble to move forward here. This 11-race maiden drops ever so slightly in class and has been given an opportunity by the handicapper as well, having dropped the gelding to 59.

He ran a huge race over 7f at this venue back in December, though doing too much during the mid-section of the race, and didn’t quite get home to finish 3rd, only 1.5l beaten in the end.

A poor showing at Southwell subsequently, was followed by an awkward effort three weeks ago at Southwell. He was seriously keen, and hard to keep in check by an inexperienced female rider. The race was lost in the first two furlongs. but as a consequence he can race officially in 0-60 off 59 now.

If Nevernay can find back the form he showed in December, he’ll be a big chance today off this mark. Adding to the intrigue is the headgear combination of hood and tongue tie.

The yard has had plenty of success with this type of headgear in the past, so if it can help him to settle, and he is up with the pace, he may not be stopping and hard to peg back.

Joanna Mason goes through a dry spell at the moment, but normally as good rides for the yard, so the booking adds more cautious optimism to the chances of this son of No Nay Never. There is some money coming this morning, so at 9’s he’s one I back.

Selections:
10pts win – Slim Marvel @ 5/1
10pts win – Nevernay @ 8/1

Betting

Tuesday Selections: 19th November 2024

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4.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam was perhaps a little bit too keen at Chelmsford when last seen, but still ran a big race for 3rd place, only a 1¼L beaten in the end.

She may get the opportunity to dominate today again – if she can overcome the #7 draw once again. That’s often a significant advantage at this track.

After that recent Chelmsford performance she’s now down to a mark of 75 and drops in class – for the first time into a class 5 Handicap.

Headgear is off today also, that’s intriguing, given four of her five career wins came without any headgear, and she clearly remains with appetite for the game, judged by her recent runs.

Her Southwell performance in October caught the eye in no uncertain way: she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually but it was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

The yard isn’t in great form, though, but the runners tend to perform better than expectation at this track. Others see more money this morning in the betting, so Princess Shabnam drifted out from early 9/2 to 6s+ readily available.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 6/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 16th November 2024

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6.18 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

Not much pace in this race, that could play natural front-runner Jumeira Vision into his hands, who won’t mind getting an easy lead on his own.

The gelding impressed last month over this course and distance when he led for most of the race, setting a hot pace, with a trio of horses closely following on his heels.

He kept going nicely, while they fell away in the second half of the race, and kept on for a decent 4th place finish, outrunning his 28/1 price tag.

This was a serious performance and suggests this stiffer test over a mile at Newcastle could really suit, given on the AW his best came over a bit further.

He won well last November over 9.5f at Wolverhampton off 4lb higher (also career-best speed rating) and earlier this year on turf over 8.5f off his current 58 rating.

If today doesn’t work out he still has the option to drop down to an easier grade, and remains of high interest, given all his wins came in class 6 in the past.

But with the CD and pace possibly to suit, in an open contest, Jumeira Vision should have a proper chance to out run his price once again, at the very least.

10pts win – Jumeira Vision @ 8/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 7th November 2024

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5.05 Newcastle: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

The pace scenario could play into the hands of possibly quite well-handicapped top-weight Strong Johnson. He drops ever so slightly in class, after a couple of strong runs lately.

He can track the pace but is also happy enough in front on his own – with not too much other pace to worry about here in this race today, he could be in an ideal position when it matters most.

His most recent third place effort at Southwell was a big run. That piece of form looks already quite strong the way it starts to work out. He could be the next nto winner.

That day he was soon chasing the leader, having a perfect #2 draw, but also he was doing a lot in the first half of the race, as did the other more prominent races.

Nonetheless, he travelled quite well into the home straight and showed and excellent attitude in the closing stages as he kept going strongly in an attempt to fend of multiple challengers

He achieved a 70 speed rating there, which matched his current mark. He also showed a handful of decent performances this season without getting his head in front, though.

The handicapper has been kind, left him on 70, and given he won off a good deal higher twelve months ago over this course and distance, he must be a prime chance today.

10pts win – Strong Johnson @ 9/2

………

8.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Princess Shabnam could be the lone speed here, if she can overcome the #7 draw. That’ll be a huge advantage to this speedy, who’s showing excellent form lately.

A fortnight ago over this course and distance she went right to the front and set way too hot early fractions. It wasn’t a surprise to see her fade away eventually.

This was a strong run, nonetheless, confirming the excellent form the mare produced over the last weeks and months.

Especially her Kempton 2nd place in September counts as seriously strong form, given the way she held on for so long, with the winner ridden with a lot more patience, as she achieved a 80 speed rating also that day – close to her career-best on the sand.

She’s down to a mark of 76 now, and ideally would drop in class, but today looks a weak 0-78 Handicap. With a possible pace advantage, she must go close.

10pts win – Princess Shabnam @ 7/2

Betting

Monday Selections: 4th November 2024

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7.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Oso Rapido looks poised for a big run here as he returns to the course and distance he caught my eye three weeks ago in no uncertain manner.

The 7-year-old gelding drops ever so slightly in grade as well, and should find this an ideal trip on the sand for him, given the pace scenario could also help to make it a gruelling test today.

Not as prolific on the All-Weather, as on turf, Oso Rapido had no too many opportunities to run 6f on the AW, though:

Found out for class in class 3 a few years ago, but he managed a win and the most recent excellent 3rd place in his four starts over 6 furlongs on the All-Weather.

Three weeks ago at this course and distance, he overcame the widest draw thanks to a rapid start, charging up wide to grab the lead just before the bend. He kept going for 3rd place – a massive performance in a decent field.

In fact, the three horses in chasing pack that followed Oso Rapido have won in the meantime. Oso Rapido himself was a bit disappointing at Redcar last week, but he was beaten by the way the race developed in another pretty hot class 5 Handicap for this time of the year.

Today is much easier, although the pace could be hot. The positive thing is that Oso Rapido doesn’t have to lead, he can follow who ever wants to make it. In fact, a good pace will be to his benefit, given he can stretch out to 7 furlongs as well.

10pts win – Oso Rapido @ 11/2

Betting

Friday Selections: 1st November 2024

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7.00 Dundalk: Handicap (50-80), 1m

Punk Poet could have found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways. He returns to the mile trip, his preferred course and distance, will enjoy a decent draw and showed plenty of encouraging signs three weeks ago at this venue.

That day over 7 furlongs, he had to overcome a wide #12 draw but quickly managed to grab the lead moving up on the outside in the first furlong, just before hitting the bend.

Largely leading uncontested – he also did a lot to keep it that way – Punk Poet travelled best into the home straight, kept going strongly under pressure, before getting tired in the final furlong to finish a gallant 3rd place.

This was a huge run, following on from two decent prior runs, as he starts to take advantage of an easing mark. He’s dangerous off 73 over CD, 5lb lower than his last win twelve months.

He doesn’t look too far off that form, judged by this big performance, that also warranted a decent speed rating and a piece of form that works out well, given the 7th and 9th of that race performed strongly in the meantime.

Punk Poet could be hard to beat today, as he should be able to slot in right behind the likes of No Knee Ever and Rampage, should they elect to want to lead, or he can simply to his own thing from the front. The #5 draw allows for multiple options, and all should suit.

10pts win – Punk Poet @ 9/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 27th July 2024

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3.40 Ascot: Group 1 – King George, 1m 4f

Auguste Rodin sets a very high standard in the King George – if on a going day. He’s the right favourite, and hard to knock on his 2024 form.

Somewhat of an enigma last year, this season he improved nicely from his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, to land the Group 1 POW at this venue last month in fine style.

Two performances achieving a 100+ speed rating back-to-back as well – clearly on decent ground Auguste Rodin is a superstar. With the pace and race likely to be run in his favour, with his stablemates, including high-class Luxembourg likely to to move forward, he should be in an ideal position when the fields turns for home.

One could argue 6/4 is a pretty fair price, given nearly everything will be in his favour today. It’s not my type of price, but I think you could back far worse shots at these short prices.

Saying that, there’s some decent opposition to beat, albeit, they all have their work cut out, given none of them enjoys the luxury of two pacemakers helping their cause.

Rebel’s Romance is the closest rival in the betting. I don’t he’s good enough to beat Auguste Rodin, though. His best form comes away from home, and he never achieved a Group 1 speed rating on turf so far.

That’s perhaps controversial to say, given he won two Group 1 races this year already. And those were competitive ones at Meydan and Hong Kong. At 7/2 I see zero value in back him, nonetheless.

The filly Bluestocking looks progressive as she matures. Her Pretty Polly win last month was a superb piece of form. Can she translate this type of performance to fast ground and 12 furlongs? If so, she’d be a serious danger.

Middle Earth, so far in her career, hasn’t shown that she’s Group 1 class. Duabi Honour has, and he could outran a big price for a place. Although, his very best form comes over 10 furlongs.

To call Luxembourg, a most recent Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner, a pace maker is probably harsh. He’ll run on merit, no doubt, and is a fair each-way shout at current prices. I do believe he’s best over 10 furlongs, on the other hand, and may be outstayed for win purposes.

There no question that the only 3-year-old colt in the race, Sunway, is tremendously overpriced. 17/1+ on the exchanges is obviously a bonkers price.

Saying that, to start with a negative: his draw an likely position in the race are massive negatives. He’ll likely be held up and will have plenty to do once the field turns for home. His challenge may come too late.

Nonetheless, at this price I can’t leave him unbacked. There’s too much juice in the these odds, for various reasons.

For one: His 108 speed rating achieved in the Irish Derby is the best on offer in this field this season. I believe the Curragh Classic was a strong renewal, and the form will stand the test of time.

Further to that, he achieved that brilliant runner-up performance in less than ideal circumstances. Coming from off the pace, he had a lot to do, didn’t get the best run through, and still finished the fastest over the last three furlongs, thanks to a rapid final furlong.

That run demonstrates his class but also his possibly vulnerability, certainly over this trip, given the way he’s ridden over 12 furlongs. From his #7 draw today most likely he’ll be ridden in similar fashion.

The hope is that they go hard up front and that James Doyle can make progress from halfway out to swing around the bend for a clear run not further back than midfield to unleash a turn of foot, that seems present, especially on better ground, to give Sunway a fair chance to win.

10pts win – Sunway @ 17/1

…….

7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This looks a superb chance for Sir Oliver to score as he drops down in class again, having lost another 2lb of his mark and gets the added bonus of solid 3lb claiming Christian Howarth in the saddle.

Sir Oliver has ran well enough lately, having finished a gallant 3rd over this course and distance in June, when not ideally placed, in a hot 0-75 Handicap off 3lb higher than today.

He was too keen the next two times back over 7 furlongs, although, also harshly judged in better class, especially most recently at Ascot in a strong class 4 contest.

Down to class 5, where he enjoys a 9-3-4 record and 3-1-2 ground over 6 furlongs on on decent to fast ground, he looks well handicapped in this race today. Albeit competitive in nature, and the #1 draw not quite ideal, the pace scenario shapes well enough for him to cross over quickly to the far rail.

So with fast ground, trip and track to suit, in an easier race, and having shown form lately, Sir Oliver could be hard to beat today.

10pts win – Sir Oliver @ 5/1

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 10th July 2024

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4.55 Catterick: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

I’ve backed Kindest Nation before and am prepared to give her a final chance, today in a pretty poor race, with ground, trip and pace scenario likely to suit this filly.

I think she’s better than her official 70 rating in these conditions. I don’t think she appreciates any firm in the going, and that was the case the last two times.

As poor as the most recent Newmarket run looked, ground aside, from the #1 draw she was pretty early beaten, racing somewhat isolated toward the far rail early on, and first and second racing on the other side.

She ran much better the three times prior: first at Haydock, travelling well for quite a long time, but stuck behind the leaders for a run, before fading over the mile.

Her Sandown front-running performance in a hot Class 4 Handicap suggested she’s capable of winning in a slightly easier race off her then mark, so did that excellent runner-up performance at Beverley, where she followed-up on an eyecatching Southwell victory.

Kindest Nation remains lightly raced, this is only her 7th career start, fourth time in a Handicap, and probably only the second time over the ideal trip and ground.

Headgear on should help her to stay sharp and be fast out of the gate to get to an advantageous prominent racing position, given this course and distance but also the possible pace scenario. A solid 3lb claimer on board seems the “cherry on the cake”.

10pts win – Kindest Nation @ 15/2

……

7.10 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

If Covert Mission can regain some form second up off a small break he’ll be possibly hard to beat off a seriously dangerous mark over an ideal course and distance with a favourable pace scenario.

Granted, his last two runs have been poor showings. However, he missed the break at Bath and was stuck behind horses in the home straight, while he did way too much too soon from his #7 draw at Lingfield last time out.

Both races were deep and worked out well in the meantime. I feel those runs weren’t quite as bad as the bare form suggests. Especially as he dropped to a mark of 61 now, 4lb below his last winning mark overall, and 9lb below his last winning mark on sand.

The pace scenario looks probably favourable for him, especially from a low draw with not too many other aggressive possible leaders in the race.

Cheek-pieces are back on – he raced once with them a few years ago and finished a strong runner-up. So that’s another positive in my book.

This is a weak 0-65 Handicap for this time of the year on the All-Weather and Covert Mission looks seriously overpriced with the various bigger odds up for grabs on the exchanges.

10pts win – Covert Mission @ 10/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 6th July 2024

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This weekend is always one of my favourite racing weekends of the year – the Durban July, Eclipse Stakes and the German Derby. As a racing fan it’s glorious.

The pick of the lot for me personally is the July. My favourite flat race in the entire international racing calendar. Such an intriguing puzzle to solve, being the Grade 1 Handicap it is, bringing the Classic generation and the best of the older horses together.

……..

3.35 Sandown: Group 1 – Eclipse Stakes, 1m 2f

All the excuses made for City Of Troy’s poor showing in the Guineas seemed spot on as the hype turned real when the son of Justify demolished the Derby field at Epsom.

It was one of the most impressive Derby performances I’ve seen, undoubtably. He had to overcome a less than ideal #1 draw and had to come further back than you would have wanted. He still managed to win – not just win, he sprinted home in the closing stages, compared to all his rivals.

Stamina clearly came to the fore as he outstayed all his main rivals thanks to a strong, sustained effort from four furlongs out. He was a different horse to the one seen at Newmarket, where he never seemed happy at all.

In this years renewal of the Eclipse City Of Troy is the outstanding favourite, with his main rival in the market having finished 8+ lengths behind him at Epsom.

Saying that, Sandown over 10 furlongs poses a completely different test to the Derby run at quirky Epsom. No question, City Of Troy likely has all the tools to succeed here as well. But there is that nagging doubt in my mind, given what we saw at Newmarket.

The fast early pace seemed to take him off his feet that day, more than anything. Whereas at Epsom, it wasn’t an overly taxing gallop, and he had plenty of time to settle and eventually relax.

Given his stable mate Hans Andersen will likely move forward and then tries to set the ideal tempo, it could go all just perfectly to plan… unless the likes of Ghostwriter or perhaps See The Fire spoil the party.

They could press for the lead as well. Both can be quite keen certainly Ghostwriter enjoys going forward forward, while See The Fire, keen over a mile, may want to get on with things over this new trip. Surely both wouldn’t want a sedate pace, and leave it up to Aiden O’Brien’s pace maker to decide their fate.

If there’s a a bit of a pace battle early on, and as a result over this shorter trip City Of Troy may not have the luxury of relaxing early on, I can see him being vulnerable. But only then. No doubt, the rain has helped and enhanced his overall chances.

The aforementioned Ghostwriter – fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby is an intriguing runner. He’s been running consistently to a high level and remains unexposed over this trip. The rain is a question mark, although he did well on heavy in the French Derby.

The 4-year-old Al Riffa is a frustrating sort, though with the rain coming, may enjoy this specific test over this course and distance and remains a relatively lightly raced colt with possible upside.

They all will have to improve significantly to get anywhere near to City Of Troy, if he translates his Epsom form the Eclipse. In saying that, if he doesn’t there’re alternatives.

The most intriguing rival should prove Dancing Gemini, though. Obviously I backed him the last two times, and still remember with agony how he just came close to win the French Guineas at Longchamp, if not for a shocking ride/tactical decision in that race.

In mind it’s clear that Dancing Gemini was the last two times seriously unfortunate not to finish closer to the winner than he eventually did. Hence I’m delighted to see McMonagle replaced in the saddle. He’s one of the worst judges of pace (in my unqualified view as armchair jockey). Kieran Shoemark is a significant upgrade.

While Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly at Longchamp, he didn’t looked like getting home at Epsom over 12 furlongs. One could argue, though: the way the race panned out for him had a lot to with the fact that he didn ran on to finish in the money.

Saying that, perhaps he had to be ridden as patiently as he was to have any chance to finish the race well. Yet, trailing in last position for a majority of the race was a wasted opportunity from a good draw after having a fine start to the race as well.

From his position so far back he had to use a lot of energy to make progress, quickening right into the fastest part of the race, while having to go wide and enduring interference around Tattenham Corner.

Despite all of this, remarkably Dancing Gemini still finished third fastest over the last three furlongs. It was a serious performance from a seriously talented colt.

It’s not rocket science to conclude the drop to 10 furlongs will be a positive for the colt though. He showed speed for a mile in Group 1 company while finishing strongly over that trip, and did well enough over 12 furlongs, without looking like properly staying it.

The nagging doubt that persists is whether he’s a horse that simply catches the eye, always promising to take the next step, without ever truly making it. He’s yet to run a three-figure speed rating, while catching the eye for various reasons in all his prior starts as well.

At this point in time I remain a believer. Believing that Dancing Gemini can improve for experience, for the trip and the track. If that’s the case, I do believe he’ll give COT certainly a proper race in the closing stages.

When writing this yesterday I thought somewhere around 8 or 9 would the price to get him; waking up this morning, as the ground turned soft, seeing much bigger than that on the Exchanges surprised me. In fact, his best form comes with juice in the ground, so that, I feel, can only enhance his chances today.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 14/1 (SM)

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3.00 Greyville: Grade 1 – Durban July, 1m 3f

This looks as open a renewal of the Durban July as there has been for a while. Mike De Kock said on preview night he feels the three-year-olds have the upper hand these days, but personally I’m not so sure.

From a handicapping perspective not too many horses scream “well in” but to De Kock’s point, 3-year-old colt Green With Envy has the makings of a fair favourite and on the basis of Weight For Age.

The way he won the Daily News 2000 when last seen where took the scenic route around the final bend, coming from well off the pace, was mightily impressive. There is every chance he’ll get the additional distance and can improve again, especially at a track he’s 3 from 3.

The danger is the whether he’ll get a good trip. Green With Envy is usually ridden stone cold, one who’s winning his races thanks to a devastating turn of foot.

Two issues with that in the July: it’s a big 18-runner field. He’s never encountered that. It’s a different beast compared to winning a 9-runner Cape Derby with plenty of space.

He may not get a perfect trip, and crucially, a possibly sedate enough pace may see his turn of foot blunted as he’ll have to quicken into fastest part of the race, having to make up a lot of ground, potentially.

Dolphin’s Cup Trial winner Oriental Charm is another dangerous 3-year-old, if he can stay the trip. He likes this track, won the Group 3 Trial nicely, was a strong runner-up in the Grade 2 1900 and will move forward, likely enjoying the run of the race.

Saying that, stamina is a question, given he’s yet to win beyond 9 furlongs and seemed to run out of gas in the Cape Derby.

Last years impressive July winner Winchester Mansion enjoyed the perfect race twelve months ago, as well as the perfect preparation leading up to the big race.

A bigger weight, far from a perfect preparation, he’d need everything to go absolutely right on the day to see him go back to back.

Obviously you can’t dismiss last years runner-up See It Again who travelled like the winner with 200m to go, but ultimately got outstayed by Winchester Mansion in a thriller to the line.

He’s been running to strong form earlier this year in hot races, but only was seen once since January in preparation, suggesting not all went totally to plan. On the other hand, that “prep run” four weeks ago was an excellent 3rd in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge.

He’s got to defy top-weight here and that adds to the difficulty, as does his hold-up running style if the pace is slow.

Second highest weight in the race Royal Victory can’t be discounted after winning the Grade 1 Champions Challenge back in April. He raced only twice over 10 furlongs, and won two Grade 1’s. If he can stretch out over the extended trip here, he must go close.

This years Met winner Double Superlative gets the assistance of Danny Muscutt once again, who’s flying in for this race. The talk is that he’s a little short of peak fitness, though I’d be more worried about the trip.

Lightly raced Barbaresco was badly interfered with in the Daily News, was hanging in the home straight as well, and yet he stayed on the extremely well in the closing stages.

He should get home over the extended July trip, may have more to offer and could be ridden a bit closer to the pace this time from the #2 draw. He’s a real chance and the 3-year-old I’d fancy most today.

However, in my view, they all have to beat Justin Snaith’s gelding Future Swing. The son of Futura, is the pick of South Africa’s superstar jockey Richard Fourie, and that’s a vote of confidence in itself.

Snaith has been incredibly positive about Future Swing, who enjoyed a perfect prep, with the July as his target this season: a lovely comeback run in April, followed by staying on strongly to land the Grade 2 1900 here at Greyville over 9.5f.

He’s not an unexposed horse, with 18 starts and 6 wins on his CV. However, he’s one, you could argue, who had this specific day in mind for a long time, having been saved somewhat to not show the handicapper his true class, especially over these sort of trips.

In his three seasons he raced only three times beyond 9 furlongs: there was the aforementioned Grade 2 victory, and there was a Listed success over 10 furlongs as well as back in January the ultra impressive win in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Cup over 1m 4.5f.

He’s got the speed for shorter trips and the stamina to see out the July distance without a problem. A gelding who comes into his own now as he gets older, having strengthened up significantly. Versatile, with the top rider on board, a lovely draw in #4 to move forward from, with Snaith saying they’ll ride him positively.

Yes, from a pure handicapping perspective he’s giving kilos away to th likes Oriental Charm and Without A Question. But the July is a different race and trip. I fancy him to be a stronger stayer than those two, no matter the weight.

If the pace isn’t too hot, that will ensure he’s going to be in a prime position and whatever way it pans out I can see the scenario that at the top of the straight he’s send on to win the race with his superior stamina seeing him hard to catch.

10pts win – Future Swing @ 10/1 (SM)

……..

4.00 Beverley: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f

Giselles Defence obviously has a huge chance being able to run off the same 71 mark that saw him win comfortably at Epsom three days ago. Saying that, this is a different track, and the ground possibly faster than he wants it, given the overall profile.

Much more appeal makes God Of Fire coming off a superb seasonal reappearance after changing yards and having been gelded during his absence.

He was an excellent runner-up at Salisbury three weeks ago and should improve for the run, his second for the Kubler yard as a gelding.

That day he was quickly out of the gates, chased the pace but looked still quite fresh as he was hanging around the bend. He was a little bit flat footed and not ideally placed on the inside, also hanging ever so slightly, at a crucial stage of the race between 3 and 2 furlongs from home, where the eventual winner made his decisive move.

God Of Fire eventually found his stride in the closing stages and finished the best in the final furlong, in fact. That was strong race, I thought, and the winner a good one. Only 2lb up for the run, is possibly lenient.

Jim Crowley in the saddle today for a yard in strong form, in a race where the pace could fall into his lap, the wider than normally ideal draw won’t be an issue. God Of Fire should get an easy way toward the front and could be placed in prime position.

10pts win – God Of Fire @ 4/1