It’s already a few days ago, but hey, you’ve got to celebrate the winners. It was the first one I could cheer home in a while – granted I had about a handful of bets in the last half year.
Anyway, it was great to see Qitaal win rather comfortably in the end, despite a dramatic drift to 14/1 SP. I was stuck with my 7’s, but that’s no issue at all. Even that represented significant value in my book.
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2.40 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
Cephalus looks a seriously poor favourite in this race at such a short price (2/1 at time of writing). He’ll be held up from the #10 draw in a race without much pace and he’s got a bit to find on speed ratings as he’s turned out under a penalty.
The 5-year old improved dramatically over the last weeks and months, winning four and going close twice. This is a different proposition, though, especially off 81 in a race that won’t be run to suit him.
The way the race is likely going to shape, and with his love for the track, Shoot To Kill looks one who may steel this one from the front for Ireland and represents serious value in my mind.
He moved over to Ado McGuinness in early March and ran with plenty of courage in two subsequent starts, both times catching the eye and clearly proving there’s plenty of life in the seven-year-old gelding.
Those were hard races and that’s a bit of a concern. But at the same they may have put him right for this race. He was highly competitive and consistent prior moving to Ireland as well.
Shoot To Kill certainly loves it here at Lingfield. Check out his course record, peel back the first layer and you’ll find a lad who’s ran some huge performances from 7-10 furlongs at this venue not too long ago.
No doubt, his optimum is a mile over this course and distance, though. He won a class 5 Handicap over this CD back in September off 74, running to a 75 speed rating which he franked weeks later over 7 furlongs at the same venue when finishing a strong third.
That mile win looks better than bare form would suggest, given it was only a class 5. His current mark – 78 – with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, gives him a shout over this course and distance, though.
He won a class 3 Handicaps in the past here, and ran his three career-best speed ratings at Lingfield, the two highest over a mile. Taking into account that he looks to hit some good form, it’s not impossible to think he’s able to run to that sort of level again.
But maybe he doesn’t even have to be that good on Friday. The pace should favour those who are ridden forward and it’s unlikely to be overly hot.
Given that, Shoot To Kill should be easily able to overcome the #7 draw and should find himself in prime position as he slings around the final bend.
Shoot To Kill 10pts win – @ 13/1
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3.35 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 6f
Not out of question that Cover Up, who’s bidding for a four-timer, can pull out more, even after a hefty 13lb hike for his most recent win at this venue, albeit over the minimum trip.
Though, moving up in trip is a question mark. The dam stayed a mile but her sole victory came over 5 furlongs. He ran a super 90 speed rating last time out. On balance, given he could get a nice lead into the finish as well given his draw and the likely pace, he’s a fair favourite – one that’s beatable, at the same time.
Batal Dubai looks well places from his #9 draw and given there isn’t too much pace competition, could enjoy the run of the race. He’s fairly handicapped, although hardly has much in hand. He always struggled so far to win once he hit the 90s.
Albasheer’s last two winning performances here at Newcastle were brilliant on speed ratings: 102 and 100 – that’s a Group horse. A 110 mark in this type of competitive handicap is also quite a steep task.
He looks well drawn and looks slightly overpriced. I have some question marks because that last huge effort only came a fortnight ago.
The one I feel who’s potentially quite well-handicapped in the context of this race is 7-year-old gelding Misty Grey.
The #5 draw gives him enough options to get a good, prominent position early on, tracking the pace, wherever it develops, given he has a bit of early speed as well.
He clearly showed a return to form in two runs earlier this month after he moved to the David O’Meara yard. The second of those runs came on the 9th of March, hence that hopefully is enough time to recover.
I felt both runs were eyecatching and warranted a slight upgrade, as much as they also suggested a mark off 96 might underestimate him at this point in his career.
At Wolverhampton in a 7f Listed race last time out Misty Grey had to give weight away to higher rated horses and it wasn’t ideal to concede first run to the eventual winner at 2f out, at the most crucial part of that race.
Days earlier at Newcastle, again over 7f, he pulled hard early on and basically tanked his way to the front. He travelled sweetly for a long time before coming under pressure and possibly also got ever so slightly impacted by a faller around the final furlong marker.
Both runs suggested he could do with a drop to stiff 6f…. hello Newcastle I hear you calling? This is his third run since a break and since moving to the David O’Meara yard and he should be primed what will only bis his second run over 6f in over a year – the last time he finished an excellent third in a hot Kempton Conditions race.
The grey gelding wasn’t rated so lowly in over three years, and as explained before, there is solid evidence based on the last two runs, that he’s hitting some strong form. At given prices he seems quite a bit overpriced.
Misty Grey – 10pts win @ 16/1
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4.40 Newcastle: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
It’s difficult not to like how Dear My Friend won his last three races since his return as a gelding and from wind operation. A changed horse, so to speak.
Four from four on the All-Weather now, and there s every chance he’s got still much more to offer. For all that he has to prove his lofty rating on speed ratings yet.
He may not have to do so here, as the pace falls right into his lap, if he wants it. He’s also a pretty fair price, at 7/2 currently, very much one I’d consider to back.
However, from a value perspective I just can’t look past Tempus. He’s not getting any younger and was beaten by My Dear Friend back in January. However the race and certainly pace scenario will play out differently this time, and so is the weights difference between the two.
Tempus is also drawn close to My Dear Friend, and may well track him all the way from his #2 draw. Usually also forward, he should equally enjoy the run of the race.
The handicapper has given him an opportunity as well. Dropped him to 102, despite three notable performances this year. He’s not been that low since winning a competitive Ascot Handicap in July 2022.
There is no question that Tempus remains in strong form, though, because he ran a joint career-best (and best on AW) speed rating at Kempton in January on his comeback run. He missed the break that day but finished very strongly as he kicked on nicely from 3f out in a good listed contest.
He fared best from those up with the pace subsequently at Newcastle when he was beaten by My Dear Friend eventually. Another strong performance. And was then a bit too keen when locked in a pace battle in a Listed race at Cagnes last month, where he was still ahead with only 1.5f to go, though.
I feel from a handicapping perspective and pace scenario Tempus got a significant chance to outrun his big price tag here.
10pts win – Tempus @ 23/1
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