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Betting

Saturday Selections: 11th February 2023

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4.18 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

All good things come in threes? Well, let’s see. I backed Heeling Power the last two and times must give him one more chance here, as this race looks to be set up ideally for him from the #3 draw.

He was a bit disappointing – on bare form – the last two runs, when I fancied him a lot. However, there are mitigating factors, and this looks an easier race on paper, too.

At Wolverhampton, from a wider than ideal draw he had an awkward start and then simply never seemed to relax, doing too much early on.

Last time at Lingfield there were less excuses from the #1 draw. However, a rival was always right on his heels, attacked him from three furlongs out and drove him right toward to dreaded inside rail around the home turn, which cost momentum.

The fact Healing Power was able to get going again, rallying in the final furlong, shows me he’s still in excellent form.

He was only half a lengths beaten by Dulcet Spirit that day, who ran a career-best on speed figures. He renews rivalry with her here, and one could argue on slightly worse weight terms despite the fact the filly is 2lb higher in her official mark. The apprentice allowance offsets the additional weight, actually.

But she has a wider draw today, and is likely to be further back than last time. That could prove to be crucial. There isn’t a lot of pace expected here. Ideal for Healing Power from the low draw to hopefully settle nicely in front.

Jockey skills will be somewhat required to keep the gelding relaxed and settled. Elle-May Croot is one of the worst apprentices on the circuit, unfortunately. That’s a clear risk. I simply hope she simply bounces the gelding out of the gate and then does as little as possible. The less she intervenes, the better.

The pace scenario clearly plays into Healing Power’s hands. There are no excuses this time. He’s on a more than fair mark and has ran to good speed ratings in the not too distinct past.

10pts win – Healing Power @ 7/2

……….

7.30 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Gobi Sunset looks potentially a class above the vast majority of this field if he’s fit after a break. Dropping down to 0-80 level, off a 82 rating with a useful 3lb claimer in the saddle makes him seriously well weighted.

It’s best to ignore his turf form and focus on his All-Weather form. His best performances came on the sand, and often off a break.

Therefore fitness is a question mark, but only to a certain extend, because the last two years on his seasonal comeback he was runner-up over this course and distance, only beaten a neck and a nose.

Nearly twelve months ago on his seasonal debut he ran a huge race in an 0-85 Handicap off a #8 draw, in a race that looks strong in hindsight.

He finished third and twice runner-up subsequently, in all his other runs on the All-Weather in 2022. Those performances look strong on paper, too.

Of course it is a concern that we haven’t seen him race since May 2022. Though, in the context of his overall record it isn’t a huge surprise.

Gobi Sunset has the best speed rating to offer over this trip, and certainly course and distance. Even though still without a win, he has a 100% place rate in Handicaps here and got desperately close twice.

The booking of Oliver Stammers is intriguing. This is his only ride on the day, and in the last fortnight he stat twice on Johnston runners, for a close second and a winner.

From a pace scenario the race could work out well for him. He won’t have too many issues moving forward from the #5 draw. There are two potential pace horses he can follow closely. Their early speed should help him settle, as he can be free over the 7f trip.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 11/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 10th February 2023

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3:45 Southwell: Conditions Stakes, 1m

Eight-year-old veteran How Bizarre is certainly a much better chance in this seriously poor field than his current price. He goes up in trip with the advantage of having a super draw in a race with precious little other pace to fight.

Red Evelyn is probably one who wants to move forward, especially with first-time blinkers. She’s one of the more feared rivals, though I can see that she may do too much early on over this trip and in the blinkers.

How Bizarre gets the mile, just. He has shown to be able to stay it fine if the pace isn’t overly hot. I think he will be able to slot in nicely tracking the pace and Billy Garritty should have plenty of options.

As for form, How Bizarre has probably close to the best here, I reckon. He has been consistent this year, but clearly looked like hitting top form in his penultimate eye catching performance.

Then over 7 furlongs as Southwell, he quickly overcame the widest draw to establish a solid lead heading into the turn. He did a lot to get there, though. He led into the straight and fought hard not to relinquish the lead, just to go down very late.

A week ago over the same CD he lost many lengths at the start, though. After anticipating the start, and seemingly getting first out of the gates, he suddenly stopped completely. Before moving on and making excellent progress from 4f out, before tiering in the final furlong. He still ran seriously well, given the bizarre start to the race

A repeat of the performance from two runs back will see him go seriously close, if he can settle over the mile trip, and starts well. That form and the one before have worked out pretty well in the meantime.

He’s a obviously tricky sort these days, though. Tends to hang in closing stages; though he didn’t show any habit of starting slowly before, so hopefully it was just something that frightened him in the re-fitted blinkers on the day. They are off here, which is probably a positive.

If he gets that usual solid start from the #3 draw he should get an ideal trip and will have top chances to add a second CD win.

The clear risk, however, is the fact that the yard doesn’t send out winners on the All-Weather at all. Like never. Ever. Not since 2020. And in the last five years a meagre 2. Granted, the absolute majority where no hopers. I believe this lad has quite a lot of hope in this field, though, and has shown more than once recently that he’s in form to go close.

10pts win – How Bizarre @ 9/1

Eyecatchers

All-Weather Eyecatchers #7

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A list of horses that caught my eye during the recent weeks of racing on the All-Weather. Find all previous lists here.

Naughty Ted
22/01/23 – 12.45 Newcastle:

Swerved violently left out of the gate, lost ground. Got back in touch with the field, always travelling on the outside, without much cover. Outpaced from over three furlongs out, but made nice progress on the widest outside from 3 to final furlong marker.

Disappointing nto at Southwell. Appears exposed,; however, may have a bit more to offer going up in trip, and certainly on grass. Handicap debut in September over 7f at Newcastle was promising as well.

Want to see him back up in trip, one to keep in mind for turf also. However, down to a mark of 50, on AW still interesting. Will be intriguing to see once he’s gelded.

Race Replay

Pepper Streak
23/01/23 – 5.10 Southwell:

Quickly out of the gate, although, slightly awkward in initial phase of the race. Raced freely, bang up with pace as part of quartet, travelling well until fading from 2 furlongs out, paying the price for early exertions.

Only 1/17 but the two final runs in December were quite strong, especially the Southwell performance warrants an upgrade. She’s a tricky sort, tends to races freely.

Will be interesting with any reduction in her mark down to 60, plus if she drops down to class 6 again, as she ran well the last two times in the lower grade. Her speed ratings would give her a good chance in a race with favourable pace and draw.

Race Replay

Big Impact
23/01/23 – 4.20 Wolverhampton:

Reared, bumped right after start, still moved forward quickly to grab solid spot tracking the pace. Held up behind leaders, impeded around the home turn, briefly losing a bit of momentum. Solid finish against inside rail.

Caught the eye a number of times lately, having run strong speed ratings in line with his mark while also having to overcome wide draws. Usually a solid starter.

Is he in the grip of the handicapper? Possibly, although if he can get a solid start he’ll be dangerous, slowly dropping to a sexy mark, especially back over 6f.

Ran nto in Amateurs Handicap over 7f. Ridden too aggressively, didn’t stay.

Race Replay

They Don’t Know
23/01/23 – 7.00 Wolverhampton:

Badly away from the gate, not helped by horse drawn right beside him. Travelled in rear, had a lot to do turning for home. Finished seriously impressive in the last three furlongs, making huge against against the inside rail.

Strong form. Winner backed up. He’s still a maiden. Obviously a difficult sort. Usually an okay starter. Down another pound, ran to higher speed ratings before. Appears to be in serious form.

Race Replay

Legal Reform
24/01/23 – 5.30 Southwell:

Excellent start from lowest draw, moved quickly forward, led early on, pressed for the lead all the way thereafter, still right up there approaching the final furlong, although in reality he was tiering badly from three furlongs out.

Strong run in circumstances, winner and second came from off the pace. Probably needed it still, as this was his second run after a long absence.

Will be interesting if he can drop in class, down to a mark of 70, then over 7 furlongs, because a mile seemed to stretch him in the past.

Race Replay

How Bizarre
24/01/23 – 6.00 Southwell:

Quickly overcame the widest draw to establish a solid lead heading into the turn. Was really gutsy all the the way to the line in a tight finish. Excellent run.

Ran with plenty of credit in all his recent starts. A tricky sort these days, though. Tends to hang in closing stages. Can win one of these poor contests, though.

Entry next Friday over a mile intriguing, if pace scenario favourable. That looks potentially an even worse race than this one.

Race Replay

Emperor Spirit
26/01/23 – 7.30 Newcastle:

Grabbed the lead promptly, set red hot pace, pestered by rival throughout, travelled strongly, but drifted across the track as he got really tired and was eventually beaten in third by horses from off the pace.

Dropped in grade here and clearly up to win in C4. Ran well all winter. One pound below last winning mark from June 2022 as he won over 6f at Chelmsford off 88 running to a 90 speed rating.

Most recent best on speed rating only 82, but now down to mark off 87 and if down to C4 again should have every chance. His RPR’s are not far off his best, so fair to assume he can win off his current mark.

Race Replay

Lost In Time
28/01/23 – 12.33 Lingfield :

Held up off the pace, travelled smoothly into the home straight. Good progress from 2f out, not the clearest of passages and all momentum stopped one furlong out. Got going again to finish nicely.

Caught the eye in earlier this winter. Seemed to have lost all form subsequently. Clear return to form, and has shown to be able to race up with the pace.

Has been left on the same mark. Obviously well-handicapped if in the same frame of mind next time out.

Race Replay

Solar Prophet
28/01/23 – 1.43 Lingfield:

Travelled nicely tracking the pace in fourth. Seemingly in good position, but forced wider than ideal entering the home straight by rival, which cost momentum and possibly victory, as the front-running winner was gone. Took a bit of time to get organised before rattling home strongly.

Didn’t stay a mile before. Strong form over 6 furlongs at Southwell prior, when poorly away from the gate, left too far off the pace, caught wide but made eye-catching progress from halfway through the race.

Ran to speed ratings 52 and 55 in his last three runs. Deserves another chance off a 57 rating over 6 furlongs. Still a maiden, but somewhat unexposed over this trip, especially off a fair handicap mark, and not without hope to improve.

Race Replay

Sun Power
31/01/23 – 6.30 Southwell:

Was awkwardly away from the gate and as a result trailed. Travelled nicely, before steered right into traffic over 2f out. Rather light right in the home straight, but finished best the last two furlongs on sectionals despite being tenderly handled especially in the final furlong.

Second run after a long break. Will be interesting once he moves up to 7f again and the money is down. Handicapper might give him a couple pounds off too. Clearly one readied for ‘the day’.

Race Replay

Alaskan
02/02/23 – 4.35 Southwell:

Widest draw, had to settle off the pace, three wide. Bit of progress around the home bend to come with a challenge on the widest outside toward the unfavourable stands’ side rail. Looked a bit disorganised, took him a moment to hit top gear before running home strongly in the final furlong.

Handicap debut from outside the weights after gelding and wind operation over the winter and off a break after three qualifying runs on turf. Was smashed in the betting.

One to monitor for nto. Intriguing to find out what the handicapper does. He was rated 42 on debut here. He’s clearly a bit better than a basement mark. Especially interesting if he steps up in trip to 7f.

Race Replay

Dapper Man
31/01/23 – 8.00 Southwell:

Tracked the pace and eventual winner early on, got outpaced halfway through, before he had to switch due to traffic problems. Got going again and ran on really well against the unfavourable stands’ side rail.

Far from disgraced in his last four runs since return to the All-Weather. Ran to 50 (in this race) and 52 speed ratings. Veteran who looks set for a big run once he races around a turn again over the minimum trip.

Race Replay

Mustaffiz
02/02/23 – 6.00 Chelmsford:

Pulls his way to the front from #7 draw. Travelles well, although pace not too hot. Tires quickly in the home straight, although positive to see that he continues to gallop to the line well enough.

Wasn’t expected in any of his runs since moving to the UK. Comes down to intriguing mark, especially if he drops in trip. 6f or possibly even minimum trip over stiff 5f at Newcastle would be interesting, with some market support.

Race Replay

Cappananty Con
03/02/23 – 1.20 Lingfield:

Pulled his way to the front, keen, couple of lengths ahead approaching the home straight, only beaten over half a furlong from home eventually.

Trip is too far. Notably that he was positively ridden for the first time in a while. Better than bare result in two runs in December, especially when draw and the way those races developed didn’t help. Clearly back to some decent level of form.

Ran in August still to a 55 speed rating. Veteran, but looks ready to strike once dropped in trip.

Race Replay

Sajwaan
04/02/23 – 2.20 Lingfield:

Pushed forward and had a bit of work to do to get to get close to the pace, tracked leader keenly in first time visor travelling off the rail. Bit outpaced entering the home straight but kept going well to the line, accepting the challenges.

Must be a tricky sort. Already changed yards twice. Still a colt. Should benefit from step up in trip. Dam did best over 7 furlongs. Ran in and around his current mark here but could find more for trip, and potentially gelding.

Race Replay

Letmelivemylife
04/02/23 – 4.20 Lingfield:

Pulled back right after the start, in rear of the field, send wide from 4f out and turned wider than ideal. Going strongly, nonetheless, however never asked a serious question, properly under full drive way too late.

Off a break for new yard, probably prepared. Realistically lightly raced since winning a Wolverhampton Handicap nearly two years ago. 3lb lower right now.

Race Replay

Gowanbuster
04/02/23 – 7.15 Newcastle:

Moved forward quickly, led by a couple of lengths before challenged for the lead from halfway through. Kept going before tiering badly inside final furlong. Fared best of the early pace, but no chance with those ridden with more restraint.

Second run after a break and wind operation. Looked good on comeback run too. Two pounds higher now. Probably more fairly handicapped than well-handicapped right now.

Another drop in the ratings would be interesting, especially down to the minimum trip. I would also love to see him racing around a turn over 6f. Looks unlikely given he usually races at Newcastle.

Race Replay

Muy Muy Guapo
04/02/23 – 7.30 Kempton:

Bit awkward away from the gate, settled in last, travelled strongly into the home straight. Was able to answer every acceleration from the front group, but didn’t get a clear passage, while not really asked for full effort at all.

Handicap debut and first run for the Simon Dow yard off a 100 day break. Very much expect him to improve for the run. He’s still a colt and cost £115k as a yearling.

He clearly has talent. Horses in this grade don’t often travel that well and can answer every pace acceleration that easily.

Race Replay

Betting

Monday Selections: 6th February 2023

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It was lovely to continue the good start to the month of February when Mogok Valley ran away with his race at Kempton in the final furlong as his stamina kicked in.

I must say I was surprised to see him go off 11/1 BSP. I felt he was a more than solid 9/2 shot at the very least. Obviously, everything worked to perfection with a hot pace to aim at and MV finding a super spot just a few lengths off the pace.

Call it luck, that it went this exact way,… perhaps I was due some fortune, anyway.

New eyecatchers will likely drop Monday evening. The bank holiday weekend helps to clear the backlog of races to watch. Quite excited about the ones that caught the eye already. Now, all that’s needed is me being brave enough to back them. The amount of winners I missed out on in January isn’t funny.

That shows: finding the winners – in theory – is the easy bit. It’s the psychology of the game that’s the difficult part.

…….

5.30 Wolverhampton: Class H&H Handicap, 7f

I am dipping my toes into a type of race I normally avoid. Dark Design looks a strong chance, no doubt; however, if he gets the trip, then Big Impact could run away with this.

He ran an number of strong races lately, the last two especially are excellent form – he’s top-weight here for a good reason. This is much easier than all the rivals he encountered in the last while.

Two back he had the widest draw and was less than two lengths beaten behind two in-form horses. Last time out he caught my eye even more so, giving the impression he’s possibly ready to strike.

That day he reared in the stall, was bumped right after start, still moved forward quickly to grab solid spot tracking the pace. Held up behind the leaders, hew was slightly impeded as much as squeezed around the home turn, briefly losing some momentum as a consequence. Hi finished well enough against inside rail.

He’s a pound lower today, and has ran a number of times to speed ratings in the 50’s – his last seven since November read: 56, 51, 57, 11, 54, 56, 50. One lesser run, all other runs solid to strong.

Usually he is a solid starter and up with the pace, travelling well as much as one-paced and honest. Those seem ideal characteristics for a hands & heels race.

The trip is the question mark. He never tried to race beyond 6 furlongs. In his races, especially when he won, he tends to find in the closing stages, though.

His sire Lethal Force is all speed but his offspring gets 7f on the All-Weather just fine, especially if fancied. A god #3 should ensure Big Impact get’s it easy enough to find a good spot behind the pace setters. Obviously dropping in would the worst case scenario.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has a 30% strike rate (A/E 1.75) in Apprentice Handicaps over last year, while jockey Liam Wright rides well in hands & heels races. This feels worth the risk at given prices.

10pts win – Big Impact @ 17/2

Betting

Saturday Selections: 4th February 2023

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It was lovely to start the month with a winner, as With Respect won it good style at Southwell on Thursday. Made me feel much better after some rough days.

I am quite excited for the weekend. Great racing is here to be enjoyed. First and foremost the Dublin Racing Festival, of course.

Unfortunately I’m not yet fit enough to attend. Was really looking forward to this weekend, having bought the weekend pass (€50 for two days of top-class action, monster value), but the TV and couch will do the job.

There is excellent racing on the Lingfield polytrack as well, and not to forget the Gauteng Guineas day over in South Africa!

………

3.36: Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Hill Station looks tremendously well-handicapped, if allowed to run on merit. Lingfield over 10 furlongs will suit, although this is a stronger race than the last two, at least on paper.

Digging a bit deeper this appears to be a pretty dire affair, though. Hill Station has quite strong recent form in the book, that stands out in this field.

Especially his penultimate run was huge on speed figures, but also on visuals. He was early up with the pace, however, got caught wide for the majority of the race. He still rallied strongly in the closing stages, to finish a brilliant 3rd.

He achieved a 63 speed rating, a career best, for this 10-race maiden. Although, he is still rather unexposed on the flat. He followed-up with another solid performance at Chelmsford over 10 furlongs, where he faded after running hard from the front and being caught in the closing stages.

The #8 draw isn’t ideal today, but there are about two other horses who want to go to the front, and they aren’t the speedy types. So there is a solid chance he can get to a handy position without wasting too much energy. Although there is always the danger he gets caught wide, nonetheless.

His sire has a poor record on the All-Weather, which is a concern. On the other hand, this is possibly a fact to negate, given Hill Station has proven he can perform well, within his limit, on the polytrack.

The jockey booking suggests Hill Station is here to give it a proper go. If that is so, I think he is a much better chance than the big price suggests ( 20/1 is available on Exchanges now; but I got to quote the price I got).

If he runs to the form from two starts back over this shorter trip, he’s going to be bang there.

10pts win – Hill Station @ 18/1

………..

7.30 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Tricky contest to get a handle on, but I only have to get a handle on one horse here, and that is Mogok Valley. He clearly deserves another chance in this easier race, down in trip, than when last seen.

Granted, the drift in the betting this morning is a slight concern, but never let a drifter put you off a strong bet – said some smarter people than I ever will be.

Mogok Valley went off favourite in a 7 furlong contest at Southwell three weeks ago. I backed him on the day. On the surface it was a disappointing performance when he faded into a distant third of five in the closing stages.

However, he was probably just found out for class behind the clearly well-handicapped winner who has won subsequently again and ran with plenty of credit in class three thereafter also.

It was the right tactics to Glorious Angel on the day, who was the horse to beat. Mogok Valley tried to challenge him from three furlongs out, attempting go the same pace but as a consequence burned out and fell away in the final furlong.

In this easier grade today – certainly there is no horse of the class of Glorious Angel – he will find it easier, I reckon. The trip should be fine, with a solid pace expected, which will help him, as I still feel he could get an additional furlong.

I also must go back two runs back, when Mogok Valley caught the eye, what was then his handicap debut.

That day at Kempton over 6 furlongs he enjoyed a solid start, travelled nicely amongst a group of horses tracking the pace, before things started to heat up from over two furlongs out.

His acceleration wasn’t rapid and he had to switch to his right at the 2 furlong pole, and again when approaching the final furlong marker, in order for clear run. He also appeared to be a tiny bit disorganised, and that cost vital momentum.

The winner, who produced a stunning turn of foot from well off the pace against the inside rail, was long gone before Mogok Valley eventually rattled home in good style for a fine runner-up performance.

I still rate this as a strong performance, following on from a lovely comeback run over the minimum trip one month earlier.

The application of cheek-pieces today is intriguing. It could help him to be as alert as needed early on. He will have to be from the #6 draw, in order to move forward and settle right behind the lead, I hope. Otherwise he will be caught wide, or worse, has to settle off the pace.

There is clear risks attached, but also clear upside. He may not be good enough to win off this mark. Nonetheless, at this point in time he warrants enough potential to see him also being perhaps one win ahead of his mark, in this grade.

10pts win – Mogok Valley @ 9/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 2nd February 2023

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January ended somewhat in a disaster. Some was down to luck, some was down to poor decision making. I backed poor value and missed out on some huge opportunities at the other end of the spectrum. Minus 35pts to start the year…..

The second half of January was costly. I made nine selections, four were placed (and beaten in somewhat “unlucky circumstances” in some of those) with one winner. If the photo goes Kommetdieding’s way in the Met it’s a handy profit… tight margins.

Due to some small health issues I didn’t have much time to watch a lot of racing lately. Therefore there won’t be a new eyecatchers list at the end of this week (I try to maintain a bi-weekly rhythm if possible).

……………

1.20 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The draw may not look ideal on paper, but I back With Respect to overcome it in this field where not many want to move forward. Also these low to higher draws in 12-runners Handicaps over this CD haven’t been such a dramatic disadvantage as one would normally think they are.

With Respect comes here after two eye-catching runs at Lingfield. started awkwardly on both occasions, which is the key concern today, especially with the #9 draw.

He travelled really well for a long time on both occasions, but fell away in the closing stages. It’s fair to assume he was found out for class and speed in a hot contest the last time. His previous run can be upgraded when he did a lot to get to the front and that piece of form has worked out really well.

He drops down in class. This should be a lot easier. He was smart as a juvenile on his debut running to a 90 speed rating. There must have been issues subsequently, he never reached the same heights subsequently, was gelded and off the track for two years.

It’s fair to hope he’s much fitter now with three solid runs under his belt. Down to a mark of 64 he could be quite well handicapped, as long as he gets it right at the start.

10pts win – With Respect @ 6/1

Betting

Friday Selections: 27th January 2023

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12.45 Lingfield: Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, 7f

I was seriously keen on Healing Power the last time at Wolverhampton. Albeit, that day he finished a disappointing 7th, there is a fair excuse for the below-par run.

Last time, from the #7 draw, the gelding was awkward away hence a step slow, was caught wide early as he moved forward to grab the lead eventually. The race was over there and then for him, as he faded badly in the closing stages.

It was also a strong contest, the winner clearly well handicapped and others have followed up with their own good runs subsequently.

Nonetheless, what made Healing Power a good bet that day remains largely the case why I am prepared to give him another chance here.

He can jump from the #1 gate, is back at his preferred Lingfield where he has a 7-2-3 record and there isn’t too much competition for the lead expected.

The Lingfield run in December remains a strong piece of form, suggesting the 7-year-old is in pretty good form. He is 3lb lower today, down to a mark of 61, which makes him well handicapped, if he can run to the same level of form again, that I believe is not far off his strong summer AW form when he ran twice to strong speed ratings, and won off 60.

10pts win – Healing Power @ 6/1

……….

3.55 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 5f

This looks really competitive with a hot pace but I must give Ooh Is It a chance at the given prices, as he is clearly overpriced, if all is well.

There is a bit money coming, he was available at 16s this morning, but is nibbled at, that gives me a bit more confidence and hope. He missed some recent engagements, so wellbeing is taken at face value.

However, he ran extremely well at the end of last year, seriously caught the eye at Wolverhampton, and wasn’t disgraced when 3rd at Southwell subsequently behind two well handicapped individuals, while it was report that the “gelding had struck into himself on his left fore” during the race.

He missed the break the next time at Wolverhampton, which is unusual. He lost the race there and then.

From a perfect #2 draw today here’s hoping for a good start. A low draw for a prominent/front-running horse is a major advantage over this CD.

Ooh Is It ran to a speed rating of 71 back in November; he’s now down a mark of 66. if he’s healthy and well, he’s certainly quite well handicapped now.

10pts win – Ooh Is It @ 10/1

Betting

Thursday Selections: 26th January 2023

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7.00 Newcastle: Class 6 Handicap, 5f

Intriguing contest; I feel Spanish Angel with the apprentice of the moment on board has a strong chance, but veteran Another Angel caught the eye a number of times lately, having run much better than the bare form and has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper.

He hasn’t won in ages, literally. But he also is down to a career lowest mark, over his preferred course an distance where he has a near 50% place record and landed all of his seven career victories.

I quite liked his last three runs, despite having been beaten comprehensively most of the time, though the last time in 0-70 class he was far from disgraced when less than three lengths beaten in field full of in-form rivals.

He drops down to 0-55 and has been dropped 3lb in his handicap mark. That looks quite favourable, given these latest runs, where he showed good early speed, don’t look all that far of his excellent September run, when third over this CD off 61 and running to a 58 speed rating.

No other horse in this race can match a similar speed rating over the last while, and I believe Another Angel isn’t too far of this form, actually. Off this really low 49 rating now, he’s clearly very well handicapped if still in form.

There is some other pace in the race, but AA should have the stands’ side to himself, potentially and won’t need to worry what the lower drawn numbers do.

I have reservations about the jockey: Cam Hardie has a less than 2% strike rate at Newcastle over the last two seasons, although often sits on big prices, but even on fancied runners improve to only about 3%. However, he has been riding this horse the majority of times over the years with a good record.

10pts win – Another Angel @ 11/1

Betting

Monday Selections: 23rd January 2023

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Two lovely winners this week, yet it was a week filled with frustration, nonetheless. Put simply: all too often I was “riding” the wrong horse, or conversely: not riding the right horse.

Saturday epitomised this fact in no uncertain ways: Paddy K – well backed from 7/1 to 9/4 – finished a good runner-up… behind Ustath. Of course. It couldn’t have been any different. The same Ustath I backed 24h earlier, when he finished 2nd.

My mood wasn’t lifted when I saw that Eye Of The Water – another eyecatcher I have been monitoring for the right day for quite some time – won the Wolverhampton opener. Unbacked. Of course.

It’s always good to see work validated, the eyecatchers have been running sensationally well this winter so far. But their victories found their way into my P & L sheet not nearly as often. Decisions, decisions…

Anyway, the latest edition – with 16 largely new entries to the list – can be found here: All-Weather Eyecatchers.

On a different topic: we’re less than a week away from the Cape Met. South Africa’s most important Group 1 race over 10 furlongs. I am fairly sweet on recent G1 Paddock Stakes winner Make It Snappy.

Top-class fillies have a strong record in the race. Make It Snappy’s brave style of racing reminds me of one of my all-time favourite fillies: Igugu! She won the Met 11 years ago, against a backdrop of pre-race worries and during the race when she looked beaten only to come back for more.

Class, guts, all heart: Igugu.

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1.50 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Favourite Lordsbridge Girl hasn’t really impressed on speed ratings yet, hence I’m more than happy to take the filly on with a recent eyecatcher, that is 5-year-old gelding Wake Up Harry.

He should have a massive chance up in trip and significantly down in class (he drops from 0-75 into 0-65) after an excellent run over shorter 7 furlongs at Lingfield earlier this month.

That day he was restrained after a path forward was blocked early on, then travelling smoothly off the pace. He was still going well when turning for home, although perhaps turning wider than ideal, before unleashing a solid challenge in the home straight from to furlongs to the final furlong marker. He didn’t quite have the speed to get to leaders and came from too far back, and wasn’t able to sustain his effort in the closing stages.

Nonetheless, he appears to be hitting peak form. He didn’t race over the right trip the last two runs and one can forgive the comeback run after a long break.

He looks all set for being unleashed here tomorrow, though. A mile suits him really well, he’s got a 4-1-2 record but hasn’t ran over it since his final run before a gelding operation back in May 2021.

It’s clear that he was well too highly rated after a promising in maiden and novice races, but is down to a more than fair 65 handicap mark. John Egan comes here for this one ride only, which could be significant, too.

I usually don’t get involved in such a short price, but this gelding should be still quite a bit shorter, in my book.

10pts win – Wake Up Harry @ 11/4

Betting

Wednesday Selections: 18th January 2023

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3.10 Dundalk: 4yo+ Handicap, 1m

An unusual one for me: I rarely bet Irish races, certainly not Dundalk. I struggle to trust the form, the races can be chaotic and these usually full fields throw up odd results.

But Iva Feeling has everything going for herself, stepping up to a mile as I hoped she would eventually, and is still a huge price on the exchanges (smarkets especially) – this looks such a superb opportunity tomorrow, everything speaks in her favour, nothing against backing a mare at Dundalk, other than backing a mare at Dundalk…

Anyway, the mare was a huge eyecatcher in early October over 7 furlongs at Dundalk:

That day she missed the break from the widest draw, was right away at massive disadvantage and travelled in rear, also quite wide. She but made excellent progress gradually entering the home straight to finish best from those off the pace.

She is still a quite lightly raced mare for her age with some scope on the sand, especially back over a mile. She is also on a pretty good handicap mark now as her last three runs are prove. She ran better than the bare form at Curragh in her final turf start; she caught the eye at Dundalk and Leopardstown in spring. Her most recent effort over 7 furlongs again was also quite strong.

She started much better, but kept fighting hard to keep up with the pace and not losing position. She ran strongly to the line, achieved a good speed rating and once again looked like she could appreciate a return to a mile.

She never had the chance to tackle a mile off such a low mark. She is drawn in #4, and has the assistance of a good 5lb claimer in the saddle. As much as these races can feel like a lottery sometimes, she looks ready to rock.

10pts win – Iva Feeling @ 6/1

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4.25 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

May Remain finally drops to 6 furlongs again. It was about time. The last number of runs over 7 furlongs he ran his heart out and performed with plenty of credit in the circumstances, but the trip was literally a furlong too far, as evidence when last seen once again last time out.

Hasn’t looked a winner waiting to happen since joining Ivan Furtado

Racingpost Spotlight

Obviously the RP analyst and myself have seen different races because for the last four or five runs I thought May Remain looks definitely a winner waiting to happen with the right trip.

He has fallen to a career lowest mark as a consequence. Off 54, over a more adequate trip – all of May Remain’s 6 career wins came over the minimum trip or 6 furlongs – he must be a huge runner in this field.

The one concern is the pace scenario. There could ne too much competition for early speed. His #6 draw isn’t ideal either. But not many appear well handicapped at all, and some may resist the urge to move forward this time.

It’s a gamble, to some extend hope, that he can find quickly a good spot tracking the likely leader in Jupiter Express. he may be caught wide, too, if things go badly.

But I am prepared to go risk, feel he is so well handicapped over this trip.

10pts win – May Remain @ 11/1

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7.15 Southwell: Classified Stakes, 6f

Shocking race. But longshot Northern Chancer caught the eye on his handicap debut and is stepping up to 6 furlongs, which should suit, being completely unexposed.

Last time at Newcastle over the minimum trip, he was a tiny step slow off the gate, before quickly moving forward against the stands’ side to lead. He was fastest over first half of the race, setting quite a strong gallop that compared well to other sprint races on the card, contested by older horses.

He appeared to be hanging throughout, though, which is a concern, and faded badly in the last two furlongs. perhaps he was just green and raw, and have learned from this run.

It was his comeback run since August and Handicap debut. He was gelded in the meantime. That may help, so will the step up in trip. I think he showed enough to suggest he can win a poor race. Also: his family tends to do well on All-Weather.

10pts win – Northern Chancer @ 11.5/1