It was lovely to continue the good start to the month of February when Mogok Valley ran away with his race at Kempton in the final furlong as his stamina kicked in.
I must say I was surprised to see him go off 11/1 BSP. I felt he was a more than solid 9/2 shot at the very least. Obviously, everything worked to perfection with a hot pace to aim at and MV finding a super spot just a few lengths off the pace.
Call it luck, that it went this exact way,… perhaps I was due some fortune, anyway.
New eyecatchers will likely drop Monday evening. The bank holiday weekend helps to clear the backlog of races to watch. Quite excited about the ones that caught the eye already. Now, all that’s needed is me being brave enough to back them. The amount of winners I missed out on in January isn’t funny.
That shows: finding the winners – in theory – is the easy bit. It’s the psychology of the game that’s the difficult part.
5.30 Wolverhampton: Class H&H Handicap, 7f
I am dipping my toes into a type of race I normally avoid. Dark Design looks a strong chance, no doubt; however, if he gets the trip, then Big Impact could run away with this.
He ran an number of strong races lately, the last two especially are excellent form – he’s top-weight here for a good reason. This is much easier than all the rivals he encountered in the last while.
Two back he had the widest draw and was less than two lengths beaten behind two in-form horses. Last time out he caught my eye even more so, giving the impression he’s possibly ready to strike.
That day he reared in the stall, was bumped right after start, still moved forward quickly to grab solid spot tracking the pace. Held up behind the leaders, hew was slightly impeded as much as squeezed around the home turn, briefly losing some momentum as a consequence. Hi finished well enough against inside rail.
He’s a pound lower today, and has ran a number of times to speed ratings in the 50’s – his last seven since November read: 56, 51, 57, 11, 54, 56, 50. One lesser run, all other runs solid to strong.
Usually he is a solid starter and up with the pace, travelling well as much as one-paced and honest. Those seem ideal characteristics for a hands & heels race.
The trip is the question mark. He never tried to race beyond 6 furlongs. In his races, especially when he won, he tends to find in the closing stages, though.
His sire Lethal Force is all speed but his offspring gets 7f on the All-Weather just fine, especially if fancied. A god #3 should ensure Big Impact get’s it easy enough to find a good spot behind the pace setters. Obviously dropping in would the worst case scenario.
Trainer Robyn Brisland has a 30% strike rate (A/E 1.75) in Apprentice Handicaps over last year, while jockey Liam Wright rides well in hands & heels races. This feels worth the risk at given prices.
10pts win – Big Impact @ 17/2