Doncaster Preview: Mallard Handicap

Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.30 Doncaster: Mallard Handicap (Class 2), 1m 6f, 132y

A wide open handicap for stayers and a clash of the young with the old. For the veterans, I feel Noble Silk is an interesting contender back up in trip – he warrants more respect than his big price tag suggests. He is usually consistent and can go close here, albeit his mark offers little room for error. This is a recurring theme in this field as most have either to prove a point or have to overcome career highest marks.

Royal Signaller is another one of the brigade of older horses who has fair credentials on form, given that he should appreciate this marathon trip, but who is not on an overly favourable handicap mark. We have not seen the best of four year old Battersa yet, so this new trip and the likelihood of good ground may help him to find back to his fine three year old form.

Others like Pressure Point or Curbyourenthusiasm may not appreciate the very long distance, while Saved By The Bell would need to find a huge amount of improvement to overcome a career highest mark.

The classic generation seems to hold the key in this contest, though. First and foremost bottom weight Not Never. A fine runner-up last month, it is not unreasonable to think that he can progress further for his sixth career start. Whether he can win relies on his stamina, however – which is untested beyond the 1m 6f trip.

Not Never was a slightly unlucky second behind Polarisation. This hardy Mark Johnston gelding had already an awful lot of racing in his career but seems to thrive for it and finds ways to win. His stamina will the tested to the limit today and personally I feel the trip is beyond him.

Godolphin’s Future Empire was once thought to be a potential Derby contender, although it became clear pretty soon that he is a rather slow horse, once he returned to the track this year in the Derby Trial. So far he has only won a maiden on his debut, however he has ran three big races in succession on his last starts when 3rd at Royal Ascot in the Queen’s Vase, then runner-up behind smart Mr Singh in a Group 3 at Newmarket, and most recently runner-up again, then at Musselburgh in Handicap company.

That day, he was beaten by Pressure Point whom he meets today again – however on different terms. Future Empire didn’t cope particularly well with the fast track that Musselburgh is, however stayed on in very impressive style. He looks an out and out stayer who will certainly appreciate the step up to this trip here. While his mark went up, he could well improve for this extreme test of stamina.

Future Empire @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Thursday Selections: Laytown Races

Photo: rte.ie

Going to the beach this afternoon! But not for a swim, but for racing! It’s the annual raceday on the Laytown beach, and it’s the first time for me to go. Finally! I though it would never happen. The races are low grade but the scenery is unique + I’ve identified a couple of “good things”.

4.10 Laytown: 50-70 Handicap, 6f

Mr Bounty makes appeal in this field now down to a very workable mark again. He won here at Laytown last year over 6f off a 1lb higher mark and won a decent Navan sprint back in April off his current mark. He should be competitive with the weight and course sure to suit.

Mr Bounty @ 6/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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4.45 Laytown: 47-65 Handicap, 6f

Doonard Prince was a good runner-up here at Laytown in a better race off a 9lb higher mark last year. He won an Apprentice Handicap off 61 earlier this year but has largely been poor since then. Down to a mark of 59, he should go close if the return to the beach helps him to regain some of his form.

Doonard Prince @ 13/2 SkyBet – 5pts Win

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6.25 Laytown: 50-80 Handicap, 7f

Veteran Swiss Cross is a versatile horse who can win on a variety of trips and grounds. He has been a bit on and off this season but ran well more often than not. Down a mark off 76 he should be thereabouts in a race that lacks depth.

Swiss Cross @ 9/1 SkyBet – 5pts Win

Kempton: Be wary of unexposed Ice Bond

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

Nice 12/1 winner yesterday – Almuheet did the business quite nicely and bounced back to form as hoped. A good follow-up from the winner when Twilight provided me a “bounce back winner” at 10/1 in the big Haydock Sprint. It has been going too well lately, but these two winners are hopefully a sign of better things to come.

6.20 Kempton: Nursery Class 6, 7f

For obvious reasons this is a wide open race. But I feel two horses stand out from the unexposed crowd. Godolphin’s Criminalistic with a good apprentice in the saddle could well be able to exploit his opening mark given his very flashy pedigree as well as good performance in three maidens.

However his draw in combination with the fact that he was very early very badly outpaced the last time makes me believe that he may not encounter an ideal scenario today and might be one to watch and wait until he steps up to 1m.

The second horse I have an eye on is Richard Hannon’s Ice Bond. He didn’t show too much in his maiden starts but steps up to 7f again which should very much suit him on pedigree, much more at least than the sprint trips he’s been racing over recently.

He has a fine pedigree for the All-Weather, suggesting his first start on this surface could see him leaving any turf form behind. His low opening mark gives him every chance to be better, so the booking of a talented 5lb claimer is an additional bonus. On balance he is the one I want to back at a tasty price.

Ice Bond @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Redcar: Almuheet can take advantage of low mark

booker

3.50 Redcar: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

Down to class 4 and dropped to a mark off 80, Almuheet must have a big chance to go close if he can find back to his form. He has been knocking on the door a couple of times last season and also earlier in a hot Kempton Handicap, but high marks prevented him from being competitive in largely better races.

He gets a chance from the handicapper now and with conditions sure to suit at Redcar today I feel this is an excellent opportunity to bounce back. He is quite an attractive given the scenario.

Almuheet @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

York: Dark Defender takes all the beating

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2.00 York: Class 4 Nursery, 7f

These kind of races are tough to work out sometimes, but I can’t help feeling that Dark Defender has an exceptional chance to win this race, given that he is one of few who has proven his worthiness of his current mark. He won a pretty deep 6f sprint here at York earlier the season but didn’t enjoy and luck in his two subsequent starts.

He is however one who steps up in trip now and who should on pedigree very much enjoy seven furlongs. There is good chance that the new trip brings out more improvement, and if that is the case indeed, he’ll be very hard to beat here.

Dark Defender @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

Sunday Selections – York

Newmarket July Course

2.30 York: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Two three year old fillies stand out in this field: Distain is the first one. She didn’t quite stay the 1m 5f trip at Chester the last time, but now dropped back to 10f she could be a real force. I was impressed with her change of gear when getting off the mark at Redcar in a maiden on only her second start. 10f here at flat York in a big handicap with a hot pace, she could be ideally suited and better than her current rating off 80.

Bottom weight Pamushana is equally one who could have easily more to offer. She is on a potentially very lenient mark after following up on an ultra impressive maiden success with a strong 3rd place in a better class at Nottingham last month. She looks big and scopey, apparently progressing well this season and wit handy weight and draw a big chance in this race.

Pamushana @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
Distain @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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5.10 York: Class 4 Apprentice Handicap, 1m 4f

His most recent Newmarket performance was too bad to be true, so one may forgive Endless Credit that poor run and better judge him on his excellent runner-up performances before. If he could run to that sort of form, he’ll be in with a big chance, given that he has the perfect draw for his positive running style.

A mark off 69 seems high enough, though; yet seen in the contest of the jockey booking, seems less of a problem. Young Fitzpatrick claims valuable 5lb and is very much worth every single pound. He’s riding out of his skin at the moment and is clearly a talented young jockey – that’s a bonus in this type of race.

Endless Credit @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

Preview – Haydock Sprint Cup

Twilight Son

3.45 Haydock: Sprint Cup (Group 1), 6f

The Sprint Cup is a wide open renewal this year, despite the fact that the last two winner give it another go. The slight ease in the ground may indeed help G Force to find back to something close of his best, but he has been so utterly disappointing this year – it’s hard to fancy him. Gordon Lord Byron is the consistent force he’s ever been. On form he is in with a very fair shout – he’ll be in the shake-up surely but hardly an attractive price.

Adaay is the obvious favourite, though. The three year old has top class form to offer and will relish the conditions. He’s the one to beat. But the most intriguing contender in this field, even more so while being slightly unappreciated in the betting, is scopey Twilight Son.

Unbeaten in four starts, albeit never tested beyond Handicap company, he has made a big impression in his two starts this season, when running out impressive successes at Newmarket and York. Obviously this here is a massive step up in class, however he looks a pattern winner in the making. He has a big, scopey frame; is progressing with each run and it’s fair to assume that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

Twilight Son is pretty ground independent, but potentially will appreciate the drying ground at Haydock. Come race time, there might not be too much soft in the turf any more. He is drawn in five which in theory gives jockey Fergus Sweeney plenty of options.

Twilight Son @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win

Saturday Selections: Kempton & Haydock

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2.00 Haydock: Superior Mile (Group 3), 1m

I feel Fanciful Angel is underestimated in this field. The grey colt has been progressive all season, when he won a good listed event at Lingfield’s All-Weather earlier the year, went on to finish a fine runner-up in the German Guineas behind a smart winner, while not quite suited by the drop in trip at Royal Ascot, where he also didn’t encounter a clear passage but finished strongly.

Back over a mile, with the ground conditions not a big worry, he deserves a chance in a field where many have to answer questions. It’s not unlikely that he has still more to offer, and any improvement will see him go very close.

Fanciful Angel @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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2.20 Kempton: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

With an excellent 7lb claimer in the saddle, Secret Art makes plenty of appeal in this wide open race. He was an excellent runner-up in the same event last season off the same mark, but has a kinder draw today and the weight allowance in hand, which must give him a prime chance. He has fine form this year on offer, although the last two on turf where poor showings.

Back on the Kempton All-Weather, with conditions very much to suit, he could go really close from a prominent position, possibly in an attempt to make all.

Secret Art @ 18/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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5.30 Haydock: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 6f

This marathon trip will not suit too many in this field I feel but certainly should see Galileo colt Soluble making a bit step forward. He hasn’t been exactly progressive over shorter trips, since winning a 9.5f maiden at Wolverhampton on his debut, albeit he has been ultra consistent an ran to his mark.

He usually stays on strongly in the final third of the race, once off the bridle and beaten for speed by others. This as well as his pedigree suggest he’ll appreciate the step up in trip.

Soluble @ 10/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Iron Major Dundalk

5.15 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Hard to look beyond progressive Commodore here. He was quite unlucky not to finish closer the last time over course and distance when a fine runner-up after overcoming the widest draw and a tactical disadvantage.

He wasn’t at his best at Newmarket when he probably didn’t quite handle the track either but ran a huge race at Sandown in June when second again, a form which works out strongly.

He has the benefit of a much kinder draw here, which should help him to get into a decent position early on. There is not too much to fear here in this field and with his 3yo weight allowance giving him a huge chance.

Commodore @ 7/2 Betfred – 10pts Win

Friday Bet – Keep In Line Can Go Close

Twilight Son

3.45 Ascot: Class 3 handicap, 1m 4f

Tight and competitive field, with plenty of horses in with a chance to go close. But I believe Godolphin’s three year old colt Keep In Line is overpriced.

He has still not too much mileage on the clock and room for further improvement. It probably is fair to draw a line through his most recent run at Pontefract, where had to overcome a wide draw, was keen early on, and travelled always wide. He made a big move turning for home five wide but eventually didn’t handle the undulations of the Pontefract home straight at all.

He can race off the same mark again here, which is 4lb higher than his last win which came on his penultimate start at Windsor in softish conditions. So he shouldn’t mind the testing conditions at Ascot. He won with a bit in hand that day, therefore I believe it’s fair to give him another chance now, given that the draw is much kinder and the conditions very much likely to suit.

Keep In Line @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe