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Friday Selections – York

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Newmarket Rowley Mile parade ring

2.30 York: Lonsdale Cup (Group 2), 2m

What a fantastic stayers race – all the big guns are here. That’s what you get up for in the morning and feel the butterflies out of excitement for the upcoming race day!

But I really don’t get the price for Tac De Boistron. 13/2? Seriously? I’m in! Let’s remember, the tough eight year old is a multiple winner of the Premier Group 1 stayers contest Royal-oak at Longchamp.

Now, his recent form doesn’t read too well. Tailed off at Ascot in the Gold Cup, however on unsuitable quick ground. So let’s forget about it. He was short favourite for a Group 3 at Chester over 1m 5f and ran out a good 2nd there behind Clever Cookie who was in receipt of 7lb by Tac De Boistron that day, though.

A return to the 2m trip with cut in the ground, which will be persistent after more rain at York, should bring out the best in Tac De Boistron, who despite his age, is still a star in this division.

Tac De Boistron @ 13/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.05 York: City Of York Stakes (Listed), 7f

I was sweet on Heaven’s Guest before the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last weekend and he ran with loads of credit in a hot race which may not have been quite run to suit him. He drops markedly in class, and may get a much hotter pace here, which should suit on ground he’ll love. He’s been in absolute smashing form in recent weeks and a big run is on the cards here.

Heaven’s Guest @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.40 York: Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1), 5f

All the hype around Acapulco is well and good and justified to a point – but seriously, how can anyone back a 2yo filly in a Premium Sprint against older, seasoned top class rivals on ground the horse has never encountered in her life at 2/1? Mugs, only mugs.

I might look like a mug myself backing Pearl Secret against the Wesley Ward filly. He won the Temple Stakes this year and was far from disgraced in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, in fact he was unlucky in my book. The Jubilee Stakes only four days later came way too soon, so a performance to forgive.

He is best over 5f anyway. He won’t be the ground either as has a good record on rain softened ground and clearly loves York as he’s two from three over course and distance.

The pace might be drawn on the other side, and that is a worry. But I’ve backed worse 20/1 shots in my life and believe he can run a huge race.

Pearl Secret @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

York: Melvin The Grate a likely improver

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3.05 York: Handicap, Class 2, 1m

As competitive and wide open as it gets, but I like the big price for Melvin The Grate. Surely still an improving individual, he has to show further improvement to feature, but may well do second time out after a break. He ran well at Sandown last month, travelling well throughout.

But this here today will suit better. He needs a fast pace, which is guaranteed, and he won’t mind any soft in the going description. His mark off 95 and light weight gives him a good chance to feature.

Melvin The Grate @ 25/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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8.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Freshly gelded Steevo could be overpriced here. He’s seems a pretty tricky customer, who won a 7f Handicap on the All-Weather last year, a form which works out well. He came back this season with a decent 3rd at Bath over 1m but seemed awkward and one-paced. The next time over 9f at Lingfield he was pulling all the way throughout the race, running his race before it really started.

That could happen here over 10f again. But he may have learned from this last outing and settle better. He can get the trip as there is plenty of stamina on the dam side. The gelding op should help him to be more relaxed now and if that is the case he can go close here off a low enough mark with a goof 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Steevo @ 16/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Sea Calisi the joker in open Yorkshire Oaks

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3.40 York: Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1), 1m 4f

Plenty of these fillies have ran against each other this year. They share more or less similar form. it seems, whoever turns up on the day, wins it. Says, I can’t have Covert Love at all at 3/1. She is the favourite after her excellent Irish Oaks win, but let’s be honest, she has had the run of the race at the Curragh. But does that make her twice as good as Curvy? No. No way.

However it is the French filly Sea Calisi who intrigues me most and who is potentially a big price at 9/1. She was late foal, born in May, is still lightly raced, pretty unexposed and comes here after an impressive Group 2 success at Saint-cloud. She should be primed for this and won’t mind the ground.

Sea Calisi @ 9/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Wednesday Selections – Ffos Las

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3.55 Ffos Las: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

This is a good opportunity for Cruise Tothelimit to score. He goes well on rain softened ground and has been in fine form this year. A strong runner-up in a class 2 Chester Handicap earlier this season is clearly the top form on offer here. He drops down to a very handy mark and has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle. A bold bid is expected.

Cruise Tothelimit @ 7/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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5.40 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

If Poyle Jessica acts on the heavy ground, she must have a prime chance here, but I feel Port Lairge is certainly overpriced. This gelding has been nothing else but improving on turf this year, predominantly at Brighton. He clearly thrives on soft ground as he proved in the past and doesn’t mind heavy going either. He has a habit of starting slowly and that certainly didn’t help him the last time when he finished runner-up behind a progressive 80 rated animal. No such horse in this race – he’ll go close and is overpriced in the context of the race.

Port Lairge @ 15/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Wednesday Selections – Kempton Park

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Boooom! Saumur get in – 16/1 SP – finally something to celebrate again. It has been a bit of a struggle in recent weeks as anyone knows who follows this blog. But those kind of winners are more than consolation. It could have been even better Dutiful Son did a really good job in the feature event, but just had a bit too much to do. A really interesting contest that was and I feel Windy Citi and Exchequer are the two to take out of the race as they didn’t have the clearest of passages.

7.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

It’s a poor enough contest and that may enable to weight Pretty Bubbles to overcome a big mark, but I’m surprised to see 3yo old Little Prairie available at 4/1 with StanJames, which surely is at least a full point too big. She didn’t run her race in tough conditions event at Leicester the last time – but that against much better opposition, not favoured by the weights at all – a performance to forgive.

She is better judged on her impressive maiden win at Lingfield. She romped home from the front that day. She got lose easily in a decent enough field. First time in a Handicap now, she can be capable of overcoming an opening mark off 81, particularly against this opposition here. Not saying she is a banker, but she is certainly the most likely winner and a big price for that.

Little Prairie @ 4/1 – 10pts Win

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8.10 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Yeager is a massive price here judged on his strong penultimate run. He’s on the same mark when finishing runner-up behind Fire Fighting. A form that works out really well. The drop to 1m shouldn’t really be a problem, neither should be the All-Weather. He has been runner-up in a hot race off a lb higher mark last year at Lingfield over 1m.

He hasn’t won since his days as a three year old and that is a concern. But he raced subsequently of mid 90 marks in very competitive races and has shown here and there some good form. He’s dangerous today I feel.

Yeager @ 20/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Tuesday Selections – Kempton Park

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Dundalk All-Weather

4.15 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 7f

This is an intriguing contest with a handful of promising contenders. Dramatically improving Ian’s Memory tops the market and despite not being flashy, he may just does enough to win and could still have more to offer. Though the handicappers doesn’t take any prisoners with him.

Exchequer loves the All-Weather and the track. He’s consistent. This big, scopey gelding should make good of a perfect draw. Claim The Roses ran a massive race the last time behind subsequent Great St Wilfrid Handicap Don’t Touch. I’m slightly concerned about his wide draw though.

Windy Citi won with bit in hand the other day, the drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem. Lightly raced Mulzamm will appreciate this trip more than 6f on pedigree. Whether he is good enough against this field remains to be seen.

Most of those mentioned above are decent prices. Hard to distinguish them. The one certainly overpriced is Dutiful Son, though. Well bred, impressive 6f winner at Chelmsford in April, he was not seen to best effect over 1m the last two starts. Way, way too far off the pace on his penultimate run, and also not in the best position the last time when third behind Windy City. The trip may also stretch him.

The drop to 7f looks ideal, however and I would assume him to be ridden much positive from a healthy draw. It’s Nicky Mackay’s only ride on the day – it could be a good one.

Dutiful Son @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.45 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Melodica may well have too much to offer for this lot but it is such a poor race hat I feel it is worth to side with bottom weight Saumur who has the chance to improve for the new trip big time. She looked one-paced in her last two starts over 10f but did reasonably well considering the horses she competed against.

On pedigree she should really relish the 12f distance and won’t mind the All-Weather surface. It could bring out enough improvement to see her go close in this field off her light weight.

Saumur @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Manomine can score off handy mark

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Iron Major

20.55 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 10f

The lucky last yet again? A pretty horrible race this is which leaves the chance open for either of the three generally lightly raced three year olds to improve to a level good enough to land this.

I go with proven “class” though. Manomine makes unusually big appeal in a race like this. The gelding had only two starts today and could better for those runs now. He also drops in class and has seen his handicap mark slipping to a handy enough rating off 67.

He has won off a bit higher in the past on the All-Weather and was placed off 71 in a good class 4 handicap last September. He’ll have to run to that sort of form today in order to see the three year olds and their weight advantage of, but I feel he can do it with a top jockey in the saddle. Track should suit him well.

Manomine @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Tuesday Selection: Chelmsford

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Iron Major goes clear

Be Lucky was lucky yesterday at Pontefract. He won the race in a photo and ensured it was another day in profit – albeit a very small one. Byzantium was a non-runner.

7.25 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 1m

Strange little race. Hard to know what to expect from any of these. There is hardly and positive form on offer, and the unknown factor of the Chelmsford polytrack is another point adding to the intrigue of this race.

By no means I can have the favourite here. Yes, Algaith is a 3yo and may have an advantage through weight for age but he hasn’t shown enough to warrant him backing at a short price, considering the trip may just too far him after all.

Maftool might enjoy the deep surface here. Hard to know whether he is in the same form as he was at Meydan earlier this year. He also has to give weight away, which is never easy for  3yo against older horses.

Hard to fancy Calling Out either. You have to hope for plenty of improvement. Castlelyons may surprise. But the value here is certainly Baltic Night, who has performed with credit on the All-Weather in the past, usually does well on a deeper surface on turf and has been mostly competitive this year. 1m can stretch his stamina, but this small field should play perfectly to his strength.

Baltic Night @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Ireland

Sunday Selections – Dundalk

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Postulation
Postulation

3.10 Dundalk: Handicap. 6f

A really competitive sprint handicap on the Dundalk All-Weather with 107 rated Russian Soul topping the field. However not many seem to be well handicapped today. Certainly not the three top weights.

Progressive Have A Nice Day is a fair favourite, given he has been in splendid form lately and may still be on the upward. The drop in trip is against him though. Consistent Master Speaker has found a way to get his head in front this year. Can he do it again? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Togoville loves it on the All-Weather. The trip should be too sharp but off his current mark he has a chance if he could lead at a pace that suits him. Ger Lyons’ Trinity Force responded well to the change in trip and first time blinkers the last time. He can be competitive today again, although his trainer voiced slight concerns over the slow surface.

I’m most intrigued by old boy An Saighdiur who may have found a good opportunity to score. He certainly acts around here, is is a course specialist who’s best over 6f and while he didn’t set the world alight in recent weeks, he’s dropped to a dangerous mark. He was a good 3rd in a Naas Handicap earlier this year off an 8lb higher mark. So I feel he is overpriced today.

An Saighdiur @ 14/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.15 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m 2f 150y

Despite a wide draw and the drop in trip potentially not quite suitable, Botany Bay makes appeal to me big time. Forgive him his latest run, he is better judged on his penultimate start when winning a hot Handicap at Down Royal, which is extremely strong form given how it worked out subsequently. Botany Bay is still learning the game could have easily more offer from his current mark.

Botany Bay @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Sunday Selections: Pontefract

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Gordon Lord Byron

What surprising feeling last night – 2 winners! Well, they are more consolation than anything else but nonetheless it’s always good to get some winners on the board. Hopefully a sign for better things to come? There is a great card at Pontefract, so let’s find some winners.

2.45 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Couple of interesting sorts in this competitive race. Favourite Almodovar makes appeal given that he is sure to appreciate the step up in trip when attempting to win three on the bounce. He may well defy his new mark here but is a very short prices considering the depth of the field.

Fellow “I’m on a hat-trick” More Mischief is an interesting alternative from the bottom of the weights. She looks a grinder and could appreciate the uphill finish. Her wide draw is a slight concern as well as it seems that she may need a bit of cut in the ground to be seen at her best, particularly stepping up in grade now.

The other three year old in the race, Keep In Line, is the most intriguing contender. He’s certainly very well bred and a full-brother to smart Kassiano. He won at Windsor the other day a shade cosily, and the 4lb rise for that effort could easily underestimate him. He has plenty of stamina but seems also speedy, so whatever way the race evolves, he should be equipped.

The wide draw is a concern though. However there aren’t too many in the race who’re likely to storm off to the front, so he may be able to overcome this. He has a very capable 3lb claimer in the saddle too. This horse is certainly overpriced.

Keep In Line @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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3.45 Pontefract: Flying Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 6f

Eddie Lynam won’t bring his classy filly Byzantium over for a nice day out. She has top credentials to win this Listed contast in fact. The three year old was desperately unlucky not to get up on the line in a hot little race at Laas the last time. Conditions will suit today perfectly, as she has a good draw and should appreciate the stiff uphill finish.

Byzantium @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.20 Pontefract: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 

Ultra competitive little Handicap – each and everyone of the six runners has legitimate claims. Therefore I feel La Dorotea is overpriced here given that she wasn’t disgraced in a really hot race at Chester the last time where she had to overcome a wide draw. She was highly tried in Listed class before which was beyond her, when following on from a good course and distance success here at Ponti. She’s only 2lb higher today but has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle.

La Dorotea @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

Be Lucky is impossible to oppose here given she is 2/2 over coure and distance and only 3lb above her last winning mark. She has the pole position draw and the speed to move forward from there. A bold bid is expected and if she is in the same mood as the last time she was here, she’s very hard to beat.

Be Lucky @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe