Tag Archives: Lonsdale Cup

Preview: York – Lonsdale Cup 2019

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2.25 York: Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, 2m 56y

There is precious little between the market principles on form and ratings – merely 2lb on official ratings, merely 2lb on career best RPR’s, in favour of odds-on favourite Stradivarius, and 3lb on highest topspeed, in favour of Dee Ex Bee.

Both horses are high class stayers, they met a couple of times already when Stradivarius had the upper in any case. The last time they met at Goodwood: Stradivarius victory that day, one could argue appeared with a bit in hand, although the eventual margin was tight.

He got a peach of a ride and had everything going for himself that day, with a fast pace to chase and no issues in finding cover until getting a crystal clear run to produce a strong finish.

You could argue Dee Ex Bee didn’t enjoy the same luxury that day. He saw plenty of daylight, was much closer to the fast pace and simply didn’t race s economical as Stradivarius did. Yet he dug deep, stayed strongly to the line and achieved the same topspeed rating as the winner.

Regardless, on the surface it appears he simply isn’t quite as good as Stradivarius. And that might well be true. But I feel the numbers don’t lie: if there is anything between these two, then it’s previous little.

So a 3lb swing in the weights today may turn the table on fast ground that will suit Dee Ex Bee down to the grounds, in a small field where the pace situation could pan out very differently than the last two times also.

You can’t discount Dermot Weld’s charge Falcon Eight. Lightly raced, progressive, he may well improve again. However, he would have to improve tons to be at the level of the market leaders.

For me the value choice in this race is undoubtedly Dee Ex Bee. When everything points to the fact that Stradivarius is a slightly better horse – having as little as 2lb in hand on official ratings – then it’s hard to fathom why one is a 4/9 chance and the tother a 7/2 chance.

Selection:
10pts win – Dee Ex Bee @ 7/2 MB

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Friday Selections – York

Newmarket Rowley Mile parade ring

2.30 York: Lonsdale Cup (Group 2), 2m

What a fantastic stayers race – all the big guns are here. That’s what you get up for in the morning and feel the butterflies out of excitement for the upcoming race day!

But I really don’t get the price for Tac De Boistron. 13/2? Seriously? I’m in! Let’s remember, the tough eight year old is a multiple winner of the Premier Group 1 stayers contest Royal-oak at Longchamp.

Now, his recent form doesn’t read too well. Tailed off at Ascot in the Gold Cup, however on unsuitable quick ground. So let’s forget about it. He was short favourite for a Group 3 at Chester over 1m 5f and ran out a good 2nd there behind Clever Cookie who was in receipt of 7lb by Tac De Boistron that day, though.

A return to the 2m trip with cut in the ground, which will be persistent after more rain at York, should bring out the best in Tac De Boistron, who despite his age, is still a star in this division.

Tac De Boistron @ 13/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.05 York: City Of York Stakes (Listed), 7f

I was sweet on Heaven’s Guest before the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last weekend and he ran with loads of credit in a hot race which may not have been quite run to suit him. He drops markedly in class, and may get a much hotter pace here, which should suit on ground he’ll love. He’s been in absolute smashing form in recent weeks and a big run is on the cards here.

Heaven’s Guest @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.40 York: Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1), 5f

All the hype around Acapulco is well and good and justified to a point – but seriously, how can anyone back a 2yo filly in a Premium Sprint against older, seasoned top class rivals on ground the horse has never encountered in her life at 2/1? Mugs, only mugs.

I might look like a mug myself backing Pearl Secret against the Wesley Ward filly. He won the Temple Stakes this year and was far from disgraced in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, in fact he was unlucky in my book. The Jubilee Stakes only four days later came way too soon, so a performance to forgive.

He is best over 5f anyway. He won’t be the ground either as has a good record on rain softened ground and clearly loves York as he’s two from three over course and distance.

The pace might be drawn on the other side, and that is a worry. But I’ve backed worse 20/1 shots in my life and believe he can run a huge race.

Pearl Secret @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win