Category Archives: United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Sunday Selections – Brighton

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3.50 Brighton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f

Likely softish ground is an unknown for most in this field and could be a big issue for any of the three year olds. None of them makes much appeal from a handicapping point of view either, so I feel it’s worth to take a punt on bottom weight Trulee Scrumptious.

The six year old mare won with plenty in hand two starts ago at Newmarket. She has also form on soft ground and stays ten furlongs truly, which is at Brighton, particularly when there is some juice in the ground. She was poor in her last two starts and has to produced a career best – but may well do so with the possibility of getting a soft lead here.

Trulee Scrumptious @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.20 Brighton: Class 6 Handica , 1m 4f

The old boy Foxhaven is likely to encounter his preferred conditions tomorrow. 12f with a bit of cut in the ground will slow things down and ensure emphasis is on stamina in the finish. He didn’t have too much racing this season but wasn’t disgraced when last seen in June at Kempton.

He slipped another 2lb down the mark, though. With the 5lb claim of his rider, he could be seriously well handicapped if he can find back to something of his former best. Back in September 2014 he still managed to finish in the money of a mark off 68. So he’s a fair chance to go close in this race.

Foxhaven @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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5.20 Brighton: Class 5 Apprentice Handicap, 1m

Double Czech should be clear favourite here given that Queen Aggie, who currently heads the market, has never got this trip before and will find it tough to change this in softish confitions. Double Czech, though, will very much appreciate the underfoot conditions, though the trip is borderline at a testing track like Brighton.

However he is down to an excellent mark, 1lb below when he won a mile race at Chepstow earlier this year, plus has the handy 5lb allowance of a good apprentice in the saddle. He should go close.

Double Czech @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Saturday Night Selections

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.00 Bath: Class 4 Handicap, 10f

Baylay is a progressive 3yo who enjoys fast ground and has won here at Bath over course and distance last month. He’s only 3lb higher, which could be lenient as he won a shade cosily in the end, after appearing to be outpaced earlier on. He might well have been green, though. There is more to come and he has a good chance to follow-up in this field.

Baylay @ 5/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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7.45 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

Arctic Lynx is a multiple CD scorer which I feel is important at Chelmsford. He won off 73 and 69 in here, and is currently down to 69 again. He should be competitive from a good draw today, albeit he has to bring his A-game in this class. However with a low weight, he has a better chance than his price suggest in my mind.

Arctic Lynx @ 20/1 PP – 5pts Win

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King Of Rooks can thrive over 6 furlongs

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3.10 York: Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), 6f

I’m prepared to give King Of Rooks another chance prove his class. He looked special when winning at Newbury and subsequently the National Stakes at Sandown, though things didn’t go quite his way the last two times. But a step up to 6f may well suit, and so should be York’s flat sprint course. He looks overpriced in this field.

King Of Rooks @ 11/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Fields Of Athenry can prove his class in Ebor

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Aiden O'brien

3.45 York: Ebor Handicap, 1m 6f

The competitiveness of this race is obvious, so is the almighty task which Fields Of Athenry faces. The 3 year old colt has to defy a handicap mark as high as none before has won from in a British Handicap from. In addition he has been allocated the widest possible draw. A big negative for a front-runner.

For all those reasons Fields Of Athenry has drifted from 6/1 out to 11/1 over the last couple of days. This price is too big in my book, though, and I become quite interested in this smart Leger contender. Why? It’s easy to see why. He is lightly raced, has potentially more improvement left in him, and despite a high mark, profits from the weight for age allowance as well as enjoys a handy 5lb claim from talented Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle.

One could have only have been impressed with his last two wins in Listed and Group 3 company. This lad has no problem to stay the distance and is one of the rare talent who can actually quicken from the front. He did this most impressively in the Listed Challenge Stakes at Leopardstown last month. More is required here today, it’s a much stronger field, but rated at 119, he is the class act.

He will have to be a genuine Leger contender if he wants to overcome his big mark today – I feel he has a good chance to do that. The wide draw is a problem, but he can be able to get across soon and track the pace. At 11/1 I’m rather with him than against him.

Fields Of Athenry @ 11/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

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Max can rock on at Wolverhampton

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Warren Hill

7.20 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 9f

Rock Of Max is a bit on the drift but is now a price where I’m happy to lump on. It’s race where most of the older horses are quite exposed and not overly well handicapped. So from the bottom of the weights this three year old colt may be the answer. He didn’t show too much, although is latest Kempton effort wasn’t quite as bad as he stayed on from an unfavourable position.

Whether he is up to his opening mark or not remains to be seen, but the dam produced two foals who developed into mid 90 rated individuals, so there is a fair chance for some improvement as the step up in trip should work in favour too.

Rock Of Max @ 7/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

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Friday Selections – Sandown

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4.40 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Bartholomew Fair has been pretty disappointing this season as he has never fulfilled the promise he showed as a juvenile. You could make excuses for Derby Trial performance where he was potentially found out for class and stamina, which was also his seasonal reappearance. But his subsequent Haydock performance left many scratching their head.

This is an extremely well bred colt, who won a Yarmouth maiden in very taking fashion last year. Subsequently he was far from disgraced in the G3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket where he ran much better than the bare result suggests as he was always wide without cover and it didn’t help that he was unable to handle Newmarket’s undulations either.

He’s had a bit of a break now and has been gelded in the meantime. Shame because of his pedigree, but something wasn’t right with him as physically he looks top notch, very athletic and scopey. Hopefully this will help him to find his true form. Down to a mark off 87 in this class 3 Handicap, he must rate a big chance if the gelding op has an impact. It usually works well for Dansili’s and trainer Cumani has a good track record with geldings first time out.

Bartholomew Fair @ 8/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

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5.15 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 1m

I loved Paco Boy – my all time favourite. He’s done well so far with his offspring. Pacolita might not be the best daughter he has produced, but she is reasonably talented and has a massive chance to give her prominent daddy a good winner today.

Pacolita was seriously unlucky in her last run at Wolverhampton. Travelling super strongly, she never got a run until late, her jockey had to take hard pulls several times but she stayed on strongly to the line, suggesting she can cope with another furlong. She gave this indication as well when winning in a dramatic finish at Epsom before over 7f.

Pacolita @ 10/3 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

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Friday Selections – York

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Newmarket Rowley Mile parade ring

2.30 York: Lonsdale Cup (Group 2), 2m

What a fantastic stayers race – all the big guns are here. That’s what you get up for in the morning and feel the butterflies out of excitement for the upcoming race day!

But I really don’t get the price for Tac De Boistron. 13/2? Seriously? I’m in! Let’s remember, the tough eight year old is a multiple winner of the Premier Group 1 stayers contest Royal-oak at Longchamp.

Now, his recent form doesn’t read too well. Tailed off at Ascot in the Gold Cup, however on unsuitable quick ground. So let’s forget about it. He was short favourite for a Group 3 at Chester over 1m 5f and ran out a good 2nd there behind Clever Cookie who was in receipt of 7lb by Tac De Boistron that day, though.

A return to the 2m trip with cut in the ground, which will be persistent after more rain at York, should bring out the best in Tac De Boistron, who despite his age, is still a star in this division.

Tac De Boistron @ 13/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.05 York: City Of York Stakes (Listed), 7f

I was sweet on Heaven’s Guest before the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes last weekend and he ran with loads of credit in a hot race which may not have been quite run to suit him. He drops markedly in class, and may get a much hotter pace here, which should suit on ground he’ll love. He’s been in absolute smashing form in recent weeks and a big run is on the cards here.

Heaven’s Guest @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.40 York: Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1), 5f

All the hype around Acapulco is well and good and justified to a point – but seriously, how can anyone back a 2yo filly in a Premium Sprint against older, seasoned top class rivals on ground the horse has never encountered in her life at 2/1? Mugs, only mugs.

I might look like a mug myself backing Pearl Secret against the Wesley Ward filly. He won the Temple Stakes this year and was far from disgraced in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, in fact he was unlucky in my book. The Jubilee Stakes only four days later came way too soon, so a performance to forgive.

He is best over 5f anyway. He won’t be the ground either as has a good record on rain softened ground and clearly loves York as he’s two from three over course and distance.

The pace might be drawn on the other side, and that is a worry. But I’ve backed worse 20/1 shots in my life and believe he can run a huge race.

Pearl Secret @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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York: Melvin The Grate a likely improver

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3.05 York: Handicap, Class 2, 1m

As competitive and wide open as it gets, but I like the big price for Melvin The Grate. Surely still an improving individual, he has to show further improvement to feature, but may well do second time out after a break. He ran well at Sandown last month, travelling well throughout.

But this here today will suit better. He needs a fast pace, which is guaranteed, and he won’t mind any soft in the going description. His mark off 95 and light weight gives him a good chance to feature.

Melvin The Grate @ 25/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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8.00 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 2f

Freshly gelded Steevo could be overpriced here. He’s seems a pretty tricky customer, who won a 7f Handicap on the All-Weather last year, a form which works out well. He came back this season with a decent 3rd at Bath over 1m but seemed awkward and one-paced. The next time over 9f at Lingfield he was pulling all the way throughout the race, running his race before it really started.

That could happen here over 10f again. But he may have learned from this last outing and settle better. He can get the trip as there is plenty of stamina on the dam side. The gelding op should help him to be more relaxed now and if that is the case he can go close here off a low enough mark with a goof 5lb claimer in the saddle.

Steevo @ 16/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Sea Calisi the joker in open Yorkshire Oaks

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3.40 York: Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1), 1m 4f

Plenty of these fillies have ran against each other this year. They share more or less similar form. it seems, whoever turns up on the day, wins it. Says, I can’t have Covert Love at all at 3/1. She is the favourite after her excellent Irish Oaks win, but let’s be honest, she has had the run of the race at the Curragh. But does that make her twice as good as Curvy? No. No way.

However it is the French filly Sea Calisi who intrigues me most and who is potentially a big price at 9/1. She was late foal, born in May, is still lightly raced, pretty unexposed and comes here after an impressive Group 2 success at Saint-cloud. She should be primed for this and won’t mind the ground.

Sea Calisi @ 9/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Wednesday Selections – Ffos Las

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3.55 Ffos Las: Class 4 Handicap, 5f

This is a good opportunity for Cruise Tothelimit to score. He goes well on rain softened ground and has been in fine form this year. A strong runner-up in a class 2 Chester Handicap earlier this season is clearly the top form on offer here. He drops down to a very handy mark and has an excellent 3lb claimer in the saddle. A bold bid is expected.

Cruise Tothelimit @ 7/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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5.40 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

If Poyle Jessica acts on the heavy ground, she must have a prime chance here, but I feel Port Lairge is certainly overpriced. This gelding has been nothing else but improving on turf this year, predominantly at Brighton. He clearly thrives on soft ground as he proved in the past and doesn’t mind heavy going either. He has a habit of starting slowly and that certainly didn’t help him the last time when he finished runner-up behind a progressive 80 rated animal. No such horse in this race – he’ll go close and is overpriced in the context of the race.

Port Lairge @ 15/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win