All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.

Ripoll can progress from nursery debut

Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.40 Kempton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m

Despite the widest draw, which is hardly an advantage, lightly raced Ripoll makes appeal at quite a big price, given that I would have expected him much shorter after an excellent Nursery debut at Wolverhampton eight days ago. The form of that particular race looks quite strong if seen in the right context, as I felt quite a number of those finishing behind the winner ran promising that day.

Ripoll doesn’t stand out pedigree wise, though he should theoretically appreciate the drop in trip. The 9.5f at Wolverhampton stretched his stamina, though he ran on well after being hampered over 1f out. Before that he travelled wide through but up with a cracking pace and must have done plenty before turning for home. So it was encouraging the positive way he saw out the race.

Off an unchanged mark I feel he has a prime chance to win this uncompetitive contest where good form is scarce and therefore his latest piece of form certainly the strongest one on offer. If he can progress slightly for the experience, he should be able to overcome the draw and land the odds.

Ripoll @ 15/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Made With Love still open to improvement

Iron Major Dundalk

3.35 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Second start for Made With Love for the David O’Meara yard – in the context of this race, he’s clearly the most intriguing contender. He should theoretically come on for his most recent outing at Newmarket when finishing stone last on his first start after a break as well as for the new yard.

He seemed quite a decent prospect at the start of the new flat season after he showed promise as a three year old when he landed a Kempton maiden. He started his year with a fine performance in a hot Kempton handicap then, finishing 4th while hanging a closer finish way in the final furlong.

Subsequently upped in trip he got badly hampered at a crucial stage in a Doncaster handicap when he seemed to get his act together to mount a challenge. Seemingly not a straightforward horse, he has been off the track and left John Gosden soon after.

Still Made With Love remains with potential. He’s had only six career starts and is open to some improvement with a hood fitted for the first time. This today is an easier race than what he contested mostly this year and the cushioned polytrack should suit him. If there is no underlying problem, like his breathing, he should be able to be a big runner of a mark off 88 now.

Made With Love @ 9/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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4.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Wide open race that could become a muddling affair due to a clear lack of pace. That may be helpful for some doubtful stayers, like Dutiful Son, who drops significantly in class. He has form over this sort of trip but all his wins came over shorter.

Tournament has a clear chance on past form. He showed some of his old sparkle in his last race, so is expected to run well today. He’s quite a skinny price, though. My Target is on a competitive mark, despite having only won a maiden to date. But he has to take a significant step forward if he wants to win this.

Loyalty is one of the few horses enjoying to be up with the pace. That makes him an interesting candidate. But he’s back from a break and never done particularly well as a fresh horse in the past. A big enough mark doesn’t make the task easier.

Purely from a pace angle Bold Prediction is the most interesting contender. He has been held up in recent starts but to my eye wasn’t ridden with the purpose of finishing as good as possible. He hasn’t done much this season over all and as a result dropped dramatically in the weights. Now down to a lowly mark off 77 he must rate a major danger if he takes advantage of the plum draw and reverts back to usual tactics.

Bold Prediction @ 9/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

Saturday Selections: Doncaster

Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.55 Doncaster: Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 1m 2f

Considering what form is on offer you wouldn’t believe that this is a listed race. It’s quite a poor renewal in all honesty. I can see three, four with legit claims, but more than half of the field can easily be ruled out.

Two times course winner Blue Waltz makes appeal given she won a good class 2 handicap here and has also form on soft ground, although her disappointing performance subsequently at Newmarket last month is slightly concerning.

Polar Eyes finished with loads of credit in fourth in a Listed event in France the other day, following on from a good handicap success at Haydock. She excels in the mud, so can’t be discounted. Her strike rate isn’t the best, though.

Last years runner-up Princess Loulou is a main contender, if she could find back to her best. She has been below par in two starts in 2015 and can’t be trusted to bounce back today. Marco Botti’s Brandybend was 3rd in a Listed contest Newmarket last month, duely outrunning huge odds that day. She may have more to offer.

Two three year old fillies make most appeal to me: Lahayeb is the first one. Currently trading as the 7/2 favourite, she loves the mud and impressed in a class 3 handicap three weeks ago, looking well above what would normally required to win such a race. The same can be said about Bella Nouf. She was successful over course and distance here at Doni recently and won with plenty in hand, albeit only in a class 4 Handicap.

Both fillies are lightly raced enough and have plenty of scope. They’ll enjoy the conditions and are the main dangers in my book. Though Lahayeb is a rather shortish price compared to Bella Nouf who appears under appreciated here.

Bella Nouf @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.30 Doncaster: November Handicap, 1m 4f

One last go on these big handicaps for the flat season 2015…. and I like a couple of these, actually! Some share recent form with each other, so do Esteem, Green Light and Only Orsenfoolsies when they clashed here at Don in a hot race a fortnight ago. A race of hard luck stories and all three horses where affected by getting stuck in traffic, while all three finished the race well, suggesting they could have gone much closer with a clear run.

On that evidence I am surprised to see Only Orsenfoolsies being the one almost twice the price of Esteem and Green Light today. He finished 4th that day, staying on well without being overly driven, when finally getting a run on the inside.

He enjoys soft ground and is only 3lb above his last winning mark, although it is true that a career best is required today. He may not be up to it, but let’s find out. He’ll certainly find the right conditions here.

Some more contenders to mention: Storm Force Ten is entitled to go close. He’ll enjoy this test for sure, so should be Penhill, who would have a prime chance, if not for being drawn in the car park. .

In general I find all of these hard to distinguish and believe they have all some sort of the same win chance, but Only Orsenfoolsies is a huge 20/1 price and for that reason the best value.

Only Orsenfoolsies @ 20/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Aintree: Jonjo’s second string a big player

Aintree Grand National

1.55 Aintree: Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, 3m 149y

Intriguing to see Shutthefrontdoor back over hurdles. The former Irish Grand National winner should enjoy the conditions and trip and has done well as a fresh horse in the past, however as top weight of a mark off 146 he would have to be at his absolute very best to land this, given the last hurdle race he won was off 135. He may well be a better horse nowadays, nonetheless, it’s not an easy task.

Favourite is race fit Our Kaempfer. I was quite interested in this lad the other day at Chepstow. He ran well but was still a good deal beaten. He has to prove that he can stay this trip now, but if he does he’d be a major chance, given this is an easier race and he’s still quite unexposed.

To an extend the same goes for Broybourne. Quite a good handicapper on the the flat, winner of a 2m handicap when rated 89, he has taken well to hurdles. He has been placed in a Listed handicap Hurdle back in April and that form gives him a good chance if his stamina holds up, although he’s much higher in the mark now and will certainly need to take another step forward.

Shotavodka is quite an interesting contender. He was an excellent second on his seasonal reappearance last week and is certainly down to a handy mark judged on past performances. Question mark is the trip. He has been placed over 3m before but his best performances are all over much shorter.

Jonjo O’Neill’s second string Join The Clan has been progressive last season, winning twice in Handicap company over hurdles over three miles plus. He couldn’t match those performances when upped in class subsequently but comes back as a fresh horse now which might be the secret to him. Down to a fair mark at the moment, he’ll certainly any rain that’s falling until the start of the race.

With conditions sure to suit I think this lad has as good a chance as anybody in this wide open race. Having the assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Patrick Cowley, who has won on Join The Clan before, is also a big plus. He seems a rather huge price in my eyes and should outrun this price tag.

Join The Clan @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Boonga Roogeta a prime chance at Chelmsford

Iron Major Dundalk

6.40 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1m

This looks an uncompetitive affair where only a couple have legitimate credentials to go close. I feel Moonlight Venture is one of those, despite a long losing run. He is down to handy weight though and with blinkers fitted could be ready for a big run.

Fantasy Gladiator has been in excellent form all year long, so can’t be discounted. He hasn’t been quite as good in his last two starts but is the sort to bounce back. That says off his current mark he has not much room for error and needs to have everything fall right.

Only once out of the top three in the last ten starts, Shifting Star has to be taken seriously. He won a Windsor when last seen and now back on the the All-Weather is not an inconvenience. Only 2lb higher today he should go close but strike rate on the AW isn’t quite that exciting and he has to be at his very best to win.

Never underestimate a Richard Hannon Runner, so Steal The Scene as the only three year old in the race is an interesting contender. He has only won over the shorter 6f & 7f trips so far and that means he might be vulnerable over this additional furlong today.

No doubt Boonga Roogeta is the horse to beat here in my mind. The mare has had a fine season with two wins here at the Chelmsford All-Weather. She won a class 4 Handicap over 10f against the boys and landed a valuable class 2 Fillies Handicap over 1m in June.

She is best suited to 10f usually, so the trip is sharp enough. However given that she is a CD winner, and the fact that there is plenty of pace expected in this race, it must not be a problem. It is true that Boonga Roogeta likes to make all but she doesn’t necessarily has to. When she won here the last time she was tracking a brisk pace. The same scenario could happen here today.

With the visor back on, a good apprentice in the saddle, and the mare being on a mark 1lb below when she won here in June, I believe she has an absolute prime chance to win this contest.

Boonga Roogeta @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

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8.00 Dundalk: 47-75 Handicap, 1m

Plenty of question marks over most runners in this field ad the market reflects exactly that with 10 times maiden Will Excel the 4/1 favourite at the moment. The three year old has been five times placed though and that gives him a prime chance on his handicap debut off a fair mark. The new trip may bring out a bit of improvement as well.

Not a Bad Oul Day has won his last two starts, both over 7f, and hasn’t been seen for roughly half a year. Hard to know what to expect from him off a career highest mark over a trip potentially stretching his stamina.

The only other horse that really makes appeal as a win candidate is Iron Major. The veteran loves Dundalk an won here a similar handicap back in April. He’s 4lb below that winning mark now, although the young apprentice in the saddle who rode him back then and now has lost 3lb of his claim in the meantime.

Nonetheless Iron Major is obviously on a very dangerous mark now and that makes him a prime contender. The question mark is the trip. He’s certainly most effective over 7f and 1m stretches his stamina – but he has winning form over course and distance.

In this poor race I give him a good chance therefore. He certainly will be involved in the finish. If he gets there when it matters, we will find out.

Iron Major @ 6/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Meydan: Torchlighter finds Ideal Opportunity

Laytown4

Got it spot on last night: Hamelin and Missed Call ran huge races. Unfortunately they didn’t quite finish in the way I would have hoped, as Hamelin was outstayed in the final furlong by the filly. Another second place for the betting record…. too many of those in recent weeks.

4.45 Meydan: Handicap, 1m 2f 

Racing at Meydan is back – it kick’s off with a decent card of six races today. The feature this dirt handicap, worth roughly €20k.

It looks a good race on paper. Dough Watson’s Jeeraan is expected to bounce back and tops the betting market. You can see why. He’s won twice at Meydan before and is on fair mark, so should run well from a good draw. But he is a very short price nonetheless taking on stronger rivals than when he won last season.

Stable mate Etijaah makes more appeal from a price point. Progressive last season, he goes well at this track and trip and his mark off 85 is fair, however he is wrong at the weights here and will have to be probably a good deal better than his current rating to win.

I really fancy Torchlighter here, though. He was 92 rated when landing a big class 2 Newmarket Handicap in great style last year and since then hasn’t been disgraced in three starts in the UAE. He tried the dirt twice last season and took well to it in very hot Carnival handicaps.

This is easier and he drops a couple of pounds in the mark as well which brings him down to a potentially lenient rating off 94. Question mark is whether he is ready to go, but with good money on stake, this looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.

Torchlighter @ 3/1 William Hill – 10pts Win

Hamelin the value in hot Kempton Listed contest

DSC_1062

A good winner today – The Quarterjack got home at Southwell to land the 2m Handicap. He did that really nicely after a tough battle down the home straight. Missed a perfect day unfortunately. Empress Ali ran well but could only manage 2nd place.

7.10 Kempton: Listed Race, 1m 4f

Excellent Listed contest on Kempton’s All-Weather track for a Wednesday night. Last years winner Grendisar is back to defend his crown and he can’t be faulted. He’s a classy individual on the synthetics who loves the trip and the track. In fact in ten starts at Kempton he has never been out of the money.

What speaks against him? His running style can be reason for concern. Grendisar travelles strongly but need to things fall right. He got that often enough last season but if they don’t go overly mad in front here it might be difficult to peg back one or two who get first run. He’s a very short price and his last two performances in recent weeks don’t instil too much confidence.

Grendisar will renew his feud with Fire Fighting. The Mark Johnston inmate was a close runner-up in this very same race last year but beat this rival at Chelmsford last month. He went on to land a good Listed contest at Dundalk over 11f. A mightily impressive performance.

He goes up to 12f again, a trip that can stretch his stamina to the absolute limit. He also has had an awful lot of racing and has to give weight away due his recent success – it’s a pretty tough task in my mind, nonetheless he has the class to overcome all these obstacles.

I really like Missed Call’s chance. She progressed nicely this year from winning a Class 3 Handicap at Ascot to finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes. I also feel she has a nice chance on the weights here. Question mark is, despite having winning form over 12f, the trip, though. It stretches her stamina to a maxium and there is the fear that others will outstay her in this very deep contest.

Stamina concerns hanging over In The Fast Lane as well. As a lover of South African racing I’m happy to see this former winner of the Grade 1 Woolavington Stakes now racing in the UK. The mare is classy on her day, but has serious question marks about the trip. And not only that.

Due her transfer to the UK she had a very long break, for that impressed on her comeback run at Chelmsford in September, but then completely bombed out subsequently. So it’s hard to know what we get from her.

Sweet P is undoubtedly a very progressive filly who also seems to enjoy the All-Weather. Nonetheless, despite presenting herself in top form lately, she has to progress big time to land this race. Which is not impossible, given she tries the 12f trip only for the third time in her career.

You can’t leave out of the equation progressive handicapper Dartmouth. The ground was maybe too soft when we saw him the last time, but up until then he won three of his five starts in 2015. More improvement is required here now, with the All-Weather being an unknown. I’m not sure if this test is what he wants, but he is unlikely to be far away if he can translate his turf form to the polytrack.

However I’m completely sold to Hamelin. I really like his profile. He’s got not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, had only three starts this year and has previous course and distance form. He also has been in impressive lately when landing a competitive class 3 Handicap at Wolverhampton.

He was a bit off at the start but was soon rushed forward from his wide draw to lead the field. It’s true that he wasn’t particularly hard pressed, but those early antics at the start must have cost loads of energy. It was impressive to see how he kicked on from three furlongs out and had the whole field quickly on the stretch.

Yes, more is required here in this race and the weights aren’t exactly favouring him – but he has the profile of an improving horse and could easily have more to offer. He will have to, obviously, but if he can find some improvement, he has to rate a top danger for the others.

Hamelin @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Photos: Down Royal

Down Royal – what a wonderful racecourse. Last Saturday I had the chance to visit this one of two racetracks located in Northern Ireland for a first time. Less than two hours by car from Dublin, the the course lies in close proximity of the small but charismatic town Listowel.

This Saturday the racecourse was bathing in the balmy autumn sunshine – a beautiful scene in beautiful surroundings. Stands packed to the limit with keen racegoers, for what is one of the highlights of Down Royal racing calendar- still it never felt uncomfortable at any given time. Friendly, relaxed, laid back… the traits of a great racetrack, exactly the way I like it.

Five out of five stars for Down Royal from me. I absolutely loved it. I’ve seen many tracks in my life, but this one ranks right up there with the best!

Down Royal, 31st October 2015 – Photo Gallery: 
(click photos to view full size; all photos credit Florian Christoph)

Tuesday Selections: Redcar & Southwell

2000 Guineas Field going to post

2.00 Redcar: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f

I feel key form to this race is a recent York Handicap over 10f which was won by Empress Ali. The four year old filly overcame the widest draw in a 20 runner strong field. Back here today she remains of interest despite a raise of 6lb in her mark as well as a step up in class. With that she won two of her last three starts, while the one in between she was a good third.

Empress Ali thrives in soft ground, so should certainly love these conditions today. From a good draw she has to enter calculations and could be able to overcome a career highest mark.

A good third that day at York was El Beau. He was a bit unlucky as when he finally was in the clear the race was gone. He stayed on well and will enjoy conditions here at Redcar. However he is on a high enough mark given his depressing strike rate. Nonetheless he should be the mane danger for Empress Ali, who is, though, a really good price to follow-up.

Empress Ali @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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3.10 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 2m

Southwell is back! Fibresand action… yeah! Winter is back… that’s what is actually means. There is this decent two mile handicap on the card today, although it’s less competitive than what these races usually are. Only three, max. four of these have a chance – on what we know.

I can see why Brassbound is a clear favourite. He has a fine record here at Southwell and won over the 2m trip before. He did so on his penultimate start over CD, and it’s not impossible that he has still more to offer. But he has a career highest mark to defy. Seven years olds don’t do that all too often, so I’m prepared to take him on.

Tartan Jura is an interesting contender, as if he’s fully wound up and fit on debut for his new yard after an extensive lay-off, he has to be bang there. But you will need to show a lot of trust.

Ullswater for new connections now based in the UK makes his fibresand debut and has not too much form on the flat. He’s kind of exposed for that reason and really hard to know what to get.

Most interesting candidate and the value in the race is The Quarterjack. He’s on his second start on Fibresand and seemingly liked it on his debut earlier this year over 14f when fair runner-up over. He’s 3lb lower in the mark and should appreciate the additional two furlongs.

While he hasn’t been in any sort of form lately, the return to this track is interesting and can rejuvenate him. It has to if he wants to beat the others, but I’m prepared to give him this chance.

The Quarterjack @ 5/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win 

Preview: Melbourne Cup

Jockeys Joe O'Brien

Four hours…. then it’s Santa knocking on the door! Well, kind of… at least if you’re a racing fan, like I am. I love the Melbourne Cup to bits, my favourite race of the year. The build-up to the big race is sensational, the atmosphere surrounding a packed Flemington racetrack leaving goosebumps on my neck year after year… quite simply: it’s the race that stops a nation! One day I’ll be there and take it in all in flesh.

Not this year though, that’s for sure. But maybe backing the winner tonight could be a stepping stone to finance the flights for 2016? Let’s wait and see. I never backed the winner, although had a couple of each-way selections placed in the last number of years….

It looks a wide open race in my mind. Nonetheless you see some mad short prices in the betting market. That says I can’t have the Japanese runner Fame Game at all. He may have a good draw and some big form, but how does this translate into the race the Melbourne Cup is? 4/1 or shorter seems a mad price in my mind.

Trip To Paris is second favourite, currently a 7/1 chance. He has not the kindest of draws but it could have been worse. He impressed me in the Caulfield Cup and I really like him. He’s a tough, genuine stayer. But hardly value at his current price. Unfortunately.

I really don’t understand why a National Hunt horse is a short 7/1 third favourite to land the Melbourne Cup. Sorry. Willie Mullins is a great trainer and Max Dynamite an excellent horse under both codes, he has strong form in the book but had an absolute dream run in the Lonsdale Cup – this is a completely different ball game, in my mind. I can’t see it happening.

Last years Victoria Derby winner Prefermant is hot on the machines. I don’t wanna pretend to know him well. Could be anything potentially, depending on whether he stays the trip. Class is there it seems, good draw too. But at 10/1? Not for me.

I absolutely loved the way Almoonqith won the Geelong Cup recently. But that was only a Group 3 and much more is required here. He might be found out for class. Same could apply to The United States. Formerly a Group 3 winner in Ireland, he landed the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Others are better treated.

Criterion has been in top form lately but the trip should find him out off a big weight. Multiple German Group 1 winner Our Ivanhowe had a great preparation to the big race since arriving in Australia. A wide draw and doubts over this stamina let me shy away from him.

Now, there is one horse that stands out of the crowd in my mind: Bondi Beach. When this lightly raced stayer won a Group 3 at the Curragh earlier this year, a day I was there and saw him in flash battling hard with stable mate Order Of St. George who subsequently landed the Irish St Leger in brilliant style, I thought this lad is the real deal if is about a staying prospect.

He subsequently lost two big races in the stewards room, most importantly the English St Leger after appeal weeks after the actual race. That doesn’t take much away from the fact he is a proper Group 1 stayer, proven in fact. Now he has to take on older horses but you can argue that he weight he receives doesn’t stand in the right context to his class and what he should actually carry.

There aren’t too many proper Group 1 horses in this race, and less than a handful are Group 1 stayers anyway. Bondi Beach is. At 16’s he looks a massive price. Granted he gets a run. The draw isn’t ideal and he’ll need luck. But favoring that into the price I still don’t get my head around this price tag.

Bondi Beach @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win